Friday, February 25, 2005
Rewrite
The book says that Bo Ryan is inside Michigan State's head. That the Spartans can't win against ranked teams. And, most especially, that a team that rebounds like the Spartans can't possibly be as fast as the Spartans. But Michigan State, it would appear, is rewriting that book.
The Spartans beat the Badgers 77-64 last night in East Lansing in a game that seemed almost unfair. Tom Izzo had an entire team at his disposal but for the balance of the evening it seemed Bo Ryan had only Mike Wilkinson, Alando Tucker, and Zach Morley. Take those three out of the box score and the Badgers are left with only 19 points.
State, by notable contrast, comes at you in waves. If Wonk didn't already know the Spartans are a new kind of Tom Izzo team, your intrepid blogger got the message in the first half when, while Erin Andrews chatted amiably from the sidelines about this or that, Michigan State got out in transition off of a made free throw by Wisconsin. Call Wonk old-fashioned but I thought teams typically walk the ball up in this situation precisely because on any free throw attempt there's a player from the shooting team lingering at half court. Didn't stop State: Shannon Brown got to the other end and got the baseline before Wilkinson could close it off. Foul, two shots.
And yet the Spartans aren't just a team that gets up the floor. They're a team that attacks the glass with ferocity and then gets up the floor. No offense against Paul Davis and Drew Neitzel, but Brown, Alan Anderson and Maurice Ager are the icons for what Wonk is talking about: guys who can touch the top of the backboard and beat you down the court. Wonk has said this before but it bears repeating: Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the Big Ten by far. The words "best rebounding team in the Big Ten" used to conjure a picture of wide bodies and slow games. No more.
(Not that Tom Izzo's totally averse to kicking it old school in that department: wide-bodied Matt Trannon is averaging a notably robust four boards a game in less than 12 minutes per outing.)
As for the Badgers, it is time to ask once again what this team is capable of doing outside of Madison. Aside from playing Illinois tough in Champaign, the record is not good: wins at Purdue, Michigan, and Penn State; 13-point loss at Indiana; 10-point loss at Minnesota; and now a 13-point loss at Michigan State. (Not to mention the ancient non-conference wounds: blowout losses at Marquette and at Pepperdine.) As a source of offense last night the Wisconsin backcourt was missing in action. And Wonk never thought he'd see the day when a Bo Ryan-coached Badger would blow a Fundamentals 101 play as badly as Andreas Helmigk blew the box-out on Drew Neitzel's missed free throw early in the second half. Paul Davis grabbed the rebound, made the putback, got fouled by Helmigk (not really but Helmigk had put himself in a position to be wronged), and made the three-point play. Helmigk did everything but install a paved driveway to the rim for Davis (THIS WAY TO REBOUND)--with all due respect to Davis, the Wonk Grandmother could have gotten that board. Wilkinson may have to play the whole 40 every night from here on out.
No such worries for State, where no player averages more than 26 minutes. The Spartans are doubtless the most overlooked 20-4 and 11-2 team in conference history. Sure, the Big Ten's "down." But that's not the State's fault. They're anything but.
BONUS note on being "down." At the risk of being heretical, the Big Ten was also "down" 29 years ago when a certain team went undefeated and won the national championship. The only ranked opponent that certain team faced that year in conference play was Michigan. True story: just one ranked opponent in-conference. And no one, rightly, criticizes that certain team for the failures of its opponents.
Wisconsin-Michigan State links. Spartan hero Alan Anderson, he of the ridiculously gaudy stat line (28 points, 10-of-10 from the field, 7-of-7 from the line), says, "We had to have this game." (Bo Ryan saw Anderson's numbers after the game and said, and this is a quote, "Wow.") Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says "Anderson was the story of this game, but the great thing about this team is that he probably won't be the story of the next one. This team is so balanced, the school is replacing the Sparty mascot with the scales of justice." Paul Davis, who notched his fourth double-double in the last six games, says victory is sweet indeed after "taking crap left and right" for games not won. Columnist Todd Schulz of the Lansing State Journal says last night the Spartans "proved the outsiders wrong." Dave Dye of the Detroit News says: "Here's the streak that's important now: MSU has won six straight." Dye also points out that, within about a 24-hour period, "Michigan State's record against RPI top-50 teams improved from 2-3 to 5-3." How so? With their win at home over Iowa, Minnesota entered the ranks of the hallowed top 50 this week--and State's beaten the Gophers twice....Is Alando Tucker calling out some of his teammates? Kind of sounds like it: "Some of our guys weren't ready."
EXCLUSIVE Wonk investigative report: Shame of a Nation, Day 433
The diligent professionals at the Big Ten press offices continue to maintain a link on the conference's site to this story: "Q&A with Kris Humphries." This was originally posted, mind you, on December 16, 2003.
Meticulous can't-be-rushed antiquarians of the Big Ten's web content group, Wonk salutes you! In fact, Wonk thinks you've got a pretty sweet gig if your boss looks to you for new content only every 14 months or so. Watch for still more fast-breaking stories coming soon from the tireless scriveners at Big Ten HQ:
"Surly veteran of national champion speaks out: Jerry Lucas says Kent Benson and the Hoosiers 'haven't done anything yet'"
"Farewell to a legend: Indiana fans honor outgoing Purdue coach F. Homer Curtis with new kerosene lamp"
"Baseball star denies substance abuse: in angry rambling rant, Cap Anson says Lister's Carbolic Unguent is legal"
Weekend preview....
Wonk's going to take a long weekend and thus will not post his usual terse Saturday morning here-are-the-games edition. Um, so here are the games....
Purdue hosts Minnesota tomorrow in West Lafayette. Very big game: Gene Keady's last in Mackey Arena. And the Gophers most likely must win to get to the tournament.
Penn State hosts Iowa tomorrow in State College. The Hawkeyes are looking for their first conference road win. The Nittany Lions are looking to build momentum for next season.
Northwestern hosts Michigan tomorrow night in Evanston. Tommy Amaker's team looks to win two in a row after snapping their ten-game losing streak. The Wildcats look to recover from Wednesday's blowout loss at Illinois.
Indiana hosts Michigan State Sunday in Bloomington. Very big game: if the Hoosiers pull off the upset they will at one stroke have put themselves back into tournament consideration. If not, they leave themselves in a position where they must win their game against Wisconsin in Madison Tuesday night. And having to win a game in Madison's not a good position to be in.
Ohio State hosts Wisconsin Sunday in Columbus. For the Badgers it's all about seeding: they need a win to avoid consecutive losses at a bad time of year and to shake the growing perception that they're harmless on the road.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana has been notified by the NCAA that its men's basketball team is not meeting required Academic Progress Rate (APR) standards, a finding that could in theory result in scholarship penalties in the future should the Hoosier fail to show any improvement in this area.
Purdue coach Gene Keady says he's not looking forward to closing out the season with road games at Illinois and at Wisconsin...within 48 hours of each other: "I've been coaching for 25 years and how can the Big Ten double-punish us with that trip to Death Valley?" Andy Katz of espn.com pays tribute to Keady here.
Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News is out with his weekly look at the Big Ten. The apparently indefatigable Spadafore also says Michigan's not going to make it to the NIT.
Dave Dye of the Detroit News says Michigan State's MVP is Alan Anderson. (Bo Ryan would agree.)...Tom Izzo says he's learned to accept that a reasonable number of turnovers is a fact of life for an up-tempo team....Tripartite profile of three Spartan freshmen who are redshirting here.
Meme du jour: Who can stop Illinois in the NCAA tournament? Mike Jensen of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at "16 teams that can beat Illinois." Brian Hanley of the Chicago Sun-Times also looks at some potential Illini-killers (and the RPI top-50)....The Dee-Brown-for-Big-Ten-MVP boomlet continues....Potential Illini all-bus-ride tournament run coverage here....Coverage of incoming Illini recruits here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest update from longtime alert reader and die-hard Spartan fan Shawn
Wonk,
After weeks of extolling the virtues of your admittedly impressive Illini, I relish the opportunity to bask in the glory of a Spartan team that has finally come together exactly as we hoped they would.
The team has blossomed in a way that most of us Spartoons had not thought possible. Alan Anderson has taken over, Ager and Brown are remarkably consistent, and Davis has registered another quiet double-double. Moreover, I actually saw him clapping along with the Izzone tonight. It's a beautiful thing.
Regardless of what happens for the rest of the year, I'm proud of these guys for stepping up, playing hard, and knocking the Detroit media back on their heels. Nice job, gentlemen! On to the tourneys!
Regards,
Shawn M.
P.S. Excellent A.E. Housman reference this week! I did my thesis on him!
Thanks, Shawn!
¶ 7:17 AM
The book says that Bo Ryan is inside Michigan State's head. That the Spartans can't win against ranked teams. And, most especially, that a team that rebounds like the Spartans can't possibly be as fast as the Spartans. But Michigan State, it would appear, is rewriting that book.
The Spartans beat the Badgers 77-64 last night in East Lansing in a game that seemed almost unfair. Tom Izzo had an entire team at his disposal but for the balance of the evening it seemed Bo Ryan had only Mike Wilkinson, Alando Tucker, and Zach Morley. Take those three out of the box score and the Badgers are left with only 19 points.
State, by notable contrast, comes at you in waves. If Wonk didn't already know the Spartans are a new kind of Tom Izzo team, your intrepid blogger got the message in the first half when, while Erin Andrews chatted amiably from the sidelines about this or that, Michigan State got out in transition off of a made free throw by Wisconsin. Call Wonk old-fashioned but I thought teams typically walk the ball up in this situation precisely because on any free throw attempt there's a player from the shooting team lingering at half court. Didn't stop State: Shannon Brown got to the other end and got the baseline before Wilkinson could close it off. Foul, two shots.
And yet the Spartans aren't just a team that gets up the floor. They're a team that attacks the glass with ferocity and then gets up the floor. No offense against Paul Davis and Drew Neitzel, but Brown, Alan Anderson and Maurice Ager are the icons for what Wonk is talking about: guys who can touch the top of the backboard and beat you down the court. Wonk has said this before but it bears repeating: Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the Big Ten by far. The words "best rebounding team in the Big Ten" used to conjure a picture of wide bodies and slow games. No more.
(Not that Tom Izzo's totally averse to kicking it old school in that department: wide-bodied Matt Trannon is averaging a notably robust four boards a game in less than 12 minutes per outing.)
As for the Badgers, it is time to ask once again what this team is capable of doing outside of Madison. Aside from playing Illinois tough in Champaign, the record is not good: wins at Purdue, Michigan, and Penn State; 13-point loss at Indiana; 10-point loss at Minnesota; and now a 13-point loss at Michigan State. (Not to mention the ancient non-conference wounds: blowout losses at Marquette and at Pepperdine.) As a source of offense last night the Wisconsin backcourt was missing in action. And Wonk never thought he'd see the day when a Bo Ryan-coached Badger would blow a Fundamentals 101 play as badly as Andreas Helmigk blew the box-out on Drew Neitzel's missed free throw early in the second half. Paul Davis grabbed the rebound, made the putback, got fouled by Helmigk (not really but Helmigk had put himself in a position to be wronged), and made the three-point play. Helmigk did everything but install a paved driveway to the rim for Davis (THIS WAY TO REBOUND)--with all due respect to Davis, the Wonk Grandmother could have gotten that board. Wilkinson may have to play the whole 40 every night from here on out.
No such worries for State, where no player averages more than 26 minutes. The Spartans are doubtless the most overlooked 20-4 and 11-2 team in conference history. Sure, the Big Ten's "down." But that's not the State's fault. They're anything but.
BONUS note on being "down." At the risk of being heretical, the Big Ten was also "down" 29 years ago when a certain team went undefeated and won the national championship. The only ranked opponent that certain team faced that year in conference play was Michigan. True story: just one ranked opponent in-conference. And no one, rightly, criticizes that certain team for the failures of its opponents.
Wisconsin-Michigan State links. Spartan hero Alan Anderson, he of the ridiculously gaudy stat line (28 points, 10-of-10 from the field, 7-of-7 from the line), says, "We had to have this game." (Bo Ryan saw Anderson's numbers after the game and said, and this is a quote, "Wow.") Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says "Anderson was the story of this game, but the great thing about this team is that he probably won't be the story of the next one. This team is so balanced, the school is replacing the Sparty mascot with the scales of justice." Paul Davis, who notched his fourth double-double in the last six games, says victory is sweet indeed after "taking crap left and right" for games not won. Columnist Todd Schulz of the Lansing State Journal says last night the Spartans "proved the outsiders wrong." Dave Dye of the Detroit News says: "Here's the streak that's important now: MSU has won six straight." Dye also points out that, within about a 24-hour period, "Michigan State's record against RPI top-50 teams improved from 2-3 to 5-3." How so? With their win at home over Iowa, Minnesota entered the ranks of the hallowed top 50 this week--and State's beaten the Gophers twice....Is Alando Tucker calling out some of his teammates? Kind of sounds like it: "Some of our guys weren't ready."
EXCLUSIVE Wonk investigative report: Shame of a Nation, Day 433
The diligent professionals at the Big Ten press offices continue to maintain a link on the conference's site to this story: "Q&A with Kris Humphries." This was originally posted, mind you, on December 16, 2003.
Meticulous can't-be-rushed antiquarians of the Big Ten's web content group, Wonk salutes you! In fact, Wonk thinks you've got a pretty sweet gig if your boss looks to you for new content only every 14 months or so. Watch for still more fast-breaking stories coming soon from the tireless scriveners at Big Ten HQ:
"Surly veteran of national champion speaks out: Jerry Lucas says Kent Benson and the Hoosiers 'haven't done anything yet'"
"Farewell to a legend: Indiana fans honor outgoing Purdue coach F. Homer Curtis with new kerosene lamp"
"Baseball star denies substance abuse: in angry rambling rant, Cap Anson says Lister's Carbolic Unguent is legal"
Weekend preview....
Wonk's going to take a long weekend and thus will not post his usual terse Saturday morning here-are-the-games edition. Um, so here are the games....
Purdue hosts Minnesota tomorrow in West Lafayette. Very big game: Gene Keady's last in Mackey Arena. And the Gophers most likely must win to get to the tournament.
Penn State hosts Iowa tomorrow in State College. The Hawkeyes are looking for their first conference road win. The Nittany Lions are looking to build momentum for next season.
Northwestern hosts Michigan tomorrow night in Evanston. Tommy Amaker's team looks to win two in a row after snapping their ten-game losing streak. The Wildcats look to recover from Wednesday's blowout loss at Illinois.
Indiana hosts Michigan State Sunday in Bloomington. Very big game: if the Hoosiers pull off the upset they will at one stroke have put themselves back into tournament consideration. If not, they leave themselves in a position where they must win their game against Wisconsin in Madison Tuesday night. And having to win a game in Madison's not a good position to be in.
Ohio State hosts Wisconsin Sunday in Columbus. For the Badgers it's all about seeding: they need a win to avoid consecutive losses at a bad time of year and to shake the growing perception that they're harmless on the road.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana has been notified by the NCAA that its men's basketball team is not meeting required Academic Progress Rate (APR) standards, a finding that could in theory result in scholarship penalties in the future should the Hoosier fail to show any improvement in this area.
Purdue coach Gene Keady says he's not looking forward to closing out the season with road games at Illinois and at Wisconsin...within 48 hours of each other: "I've been coaching for 25 years and how can the Big Ten double-punish us with that trip to Death Valley?" Andy Katz of espn.com pays tribute to Keady here.
Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News is out with his weekly look at the Big Ten. The apparently indefatigable Spadafore also says Michigan's not going to make it to the NIT.
Dave Dye of the Detroit News says Michigan State's MVP is Alan Anderson. (Bo Ryan would agree.)...Tom Izzo says he's learned to accept that a reasonable number of turnovers is a fact of life for an up-tempo team....Tripartite profile of three Spartan freshmen who are redshirting here.
Meme du jour: Who can stop Illinois in the NCAA tournament? Mike Jensen of the Philadelphia Inquirer looks at "16 teams that can beat Illinois." Brian Hanley of the Chicago Sun-Times also looks at some potential Illini-killers (and the RPI top-50)....The Dee-Brown-for-Big-Ten-MVP boomlet continues....Potential Illini all-bus-ride tournament run coverage here....Coverage of incoming Illini recruits here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest update from longtime alert reader and die-hard Spartan fan Shawn
Wonk,
After weeks of extolling the virtues of your admittedly impressive Illini, I relish the opportunity to bask in the glory of a Spartan team that has finally come together exactly as we hoped they would.
The team has blossomed in a way that most of us Spartoons had not thought possible. Alan Anderson has taken over, Ager and Brown are remarkably consistent, and Davis has registered another quiet double-double. Moreover, I actually saw him clapping along with the Izzone tonight. It's a beautiful thing.
Regardless of what happens for the rest of the year, I'm proud of these guys for stepping up, playing hard, and knocking the Detroit media back on their heels. Nice job, gentlemen! On to the tourneys!
Regards,
Shawn M.
P.S. Excellent A.E. Housman reference this week! I did my thesis on him!
Thanks, Shawn!
¶ 7:17 AM
Thursday, February 24, 2005
Republicans and Democrats, Red Sox and Yankees, Spartans and Badgers
Michigan State hosts Wisconsin tonight in East Lansing in the latest installment of what has in three short years become the best rivalry in the Big Ten. "Their fans don't like us, our fans don't like them," says Tom Izzo correctly. The rivalry has the most important element for any such feud: both teams are good and have been so for a while now. The games mean something. Never mind the streaks (State's lost six in a row against the Badgers and 12 in a row against ranked teams). This game can be eagerly anticipated on its own merits....
Bo Ryan's team is historically excellent at transition defense and that's precisely the first order of business for any team facing Michigan State's outstanding offense (fourth-best in the nation, behind only Wake Forest, Illinois, and North Carolina, according to Ken Pomeroy's points-per-possession-based ratings). The Badgers may have lost by ten to Illinois in Champaign a week ago Sunday but they allowed precisely 0 fast break points in the process. How will State react tonight if they're not running? More specifically, how will newly installed starting point guard Drew Neitzel react?
These are the two best rebounding teams in the Big Ten but the difference between the first-ranked Spartans and the Badgers is far greater than that between Wisconsin and third-ranked Minnesota--Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the conference by a considerable margin. And the Spartans shoot a significantly better percentage from the floor than do the Badgers. State's playing at home--what could possibly swing this Wisconsin's way?
Two things: 1) the aforementioned transition defense. Michigan State is shooting a nice percentage from the field in part (only in part) because of a nice number of fast-break dunks and lay-ups. The Badgers will try to shut off that faucet. 2) Turnovers. Michigan State averages almost 14 turnovers a game--not catastrophic, by any means, but not great, either. Again, Wonk wants to see how Neitzel reacts under the bright lights. This is by far his biggest start.
Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are the three best teams in the conference and among those teams there are but five scheduled meetings this season. Tonight's the fifth. Wonk can't wait.
Wisconsin-Michigan State links. The Detroit News has a handy chronology of both Michigan State's 12-game losing streak to ranked opponents and of the Spartans' six-game losing streak against the Badgers. Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal says Bo Ryan "has emerged as MSU fans' favorite villain."...Asked if he thinks Michigan State's players "hate" Wisconsin, Badger big man Mike Wilkinson replies: "'Hate' is a strong word. Maybe dislike a little bit."...Profile of Badger guard Kammron Taylor here....Badger big man Brian Butch is not expected to play. He is still recovering from his bout with mononucleosis.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Minnesota beat Iowa 65-57 in Minneapolis last night. Absent a Big Ten tournament title, the Hawkeyes are going to the NIT for the fourth consecutive year. At 4-9, Steve Alford's team is alone in eighth place in the conference. The Gophers trailed in this game 36-31 with 14 minutes left but were propelled from that point by good shooting from an unlikely source: guard Aaron Robinson hit four second-half three's to lead Dan Monson's team on a 26-7 run. ("Every time I found A-Rob," offers Gopher wing Vincent Grier, "I said, 'Shoot it with confidence, baby.'") Grier had 17 points and Gopher big man Jeff Hagen added 17 rebounds, including 11 offensive boards. "They were hitting shots, and when they weren't hitting shots they were getting offensive rebounds," sums up Iowa guard Adam Haluska. Briskly done, Adam! Indeed, the Gophers recorded a robust 20 offensive boards on 46 opportunities. To Jeff Horner, though, "It's just another frustrating loss." Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler leads off this morning's commentary with an obituary for Iowa's NCAA hopes: "After battling a prolonged illness, Iowa's NCAA Tournament dream died Wednesday night. It was 26 games old." (Keeler keeps the shtick going through the third paragraph: "A preliminary autopsy showed the likely cause of death to be shoddy coaching, compounded by a thin bench, butterflies, sloppy ballhandling, lack of focus and non-existent outside shooting.")
Minnesota plays at Purdue Saturday and at Penn State next Wednesday. If they win both, they will be in excellent position, at 10-6 in conference, to make the dance. If they lose one, they're probably on the outside looking in.
Illinois beat Northwestern 84-48 in Champaign last night. The win clinches at least a share of the Big Ten title for the Illini, their fourth in five seasons. The Illini were at their ball-moving best (22 assists on 32 field goals--"best ball movement I've ever seen in my life," according to one observer named Dee Brown). On one memorable first-half sequence Wonk counted 14 passes leading to a wide open Brown three. Brown scored 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting (6-of-8 on three's) and Roger Powell recorded a double-double with 18 points and 10 boards. Illinois shot .593 from the field and .609 on their three's (14-of-23, coincidentally, the same line from beyond the arc recorded by Indiana in Ann Arbor the other day). Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says Roger Powell "is a lot more important to this team than anyone has ever said." Couch's colleague at the Sun-Times, Herb Gould, says Brown is "playing his way into the Big Ten MVP hunt, which some experts have been conceding to Deron Williams or Luther Head." (Mark Tupper agrees.) As for Brown himself, he's bullish on the Illini. "We've got the things that make you win in March and April: Defense, free-throw shooting and rebounding." Wildcat coach Bill Carmody says Brown and Luther Head have elevated their games: "They've improved. Now they're two of the better long-range shooters in the league. No one thought that two years ago." (Carmody also dismissed talk that Illinois may not be the best team in the country: "If it's not the best team, we're in a lot worse shape than I thought.") Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Illinois may not "have another game like this, and maybe the players sensed it."...Illinois players say they'll be cheering for Michigan State tonight in the Spartans' game against Wisconsin. A Michigan State loss tonight would give the outright Big Ten title to the Illini but the men in orange say they want to win it themselves on their home floor against Purdue next Thursday on Senior Night.
Michigan beat Penn State 63-48 in Ann Arbor last night. Wolverine guard Dion Harris scored 24 points on 10-of-15 shooting. It was Michigan's first win since January 15 (also against Penn State--Tommy Amaker should schedule them more) and the home crowd responded with a standing ovation at the final horn. Afterward Amaker sounded relieved: "It's been a while since we could celebrate in the locker room and sing the Victors." (More here.)
Indefatigable Indiana beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star has posted the latest installment of his outstanding "Ask the Expert" Q&A column.
Kyle Whelliston has competition! Craig DeVrieze of the Quad City Times says a relative dearth of strength in the middle-sections of the "power" conferences has left some so-called mid-majors with some gaudy RPI's this year, including Vermont (RPI 13) and Southern Illinois (RPI 16), not to mention a more obvious program in Spokane.
For what it's worth (and when you see that expression it means it's worth nothing), Frank Burlison of the Sporting News has chosen his 15 Wooden Award finalists and Illinois accounts for an impressive 20 percent of Burlison's picks. Dee Brown, Luther Head and Deron Williams all merit consideration, according to Burlison.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Whither Alford?
Wonk,
How close is "the enemy" to Steve Alford right now? (You remember his Des Moines Register interview...)
I'd love to see you share some of your analysis on ole Steve sometime.
Love the site. Great job.
Will M.
Wonk was intrigued by this email because your intrepid blogger opened it soon after last night's Hawkeye loss to Minnesota and thought: "Wow, that was fast." But closer scrutiny of the time revealed Will had sent this before the game.
Small distinction but perhaps an important one: if Iowa had won last night they would stand an excellent chance of winning their remaining games (actually, they still do) and perhaps wriggling into the NCAA tournament at 8-8 and 20-9. But now they need to win the Big Ten tournament.
Alford is 105-81 at Iowa (.565) and just 38-55 in conference (.409). Attendance has dropped at Hawkeye home games for four consecutive years to the point where now--again, on average--there are almost 4,000 empty seats in Carver-Hawkeye for every game. And the two-part two-year Pierre Pierce kerfuffle certainly did Alford no favors.
The coach serves at the pleasure of his athletic director and his university. They will look at those facts and make their call. Wonk certainly claims no exclusive omniscience or even particular interest where Hawkeye AD Bob Bowlsby and his conscience are concerned. This blogger knows only that Tom Davis's few down years were the parentheses in a strong program--and that Alford was hired in Iowa City to take that strong program to the next level. No one, least of all Alford himself, is claiming he's done it yet.
Whether he'll be given the opportunity to continue to try, well, we'll see.
¶ 7:05 AM
Michigan State hosts Wisconsin tonight in East Lansing in the latest installment of what has in three short years become the best rivalry in the Big Ten. "Their fans don't like us, our fans don't like them," says Tom Izzo correctly. The rivalry has the most important element for any such feud: both teams are good and have been so for a while now. The games mean something. Never mind the streaks (State's lost six in a row against the Badgers and 12 in a row against ranked teams). This game can be eagerly anticipated on its own merits....
Bo Ryan's team is historically excellent at transition defense and that's precisely the first order of business for any team facing Michigan State's outstanding offense (fourth-best in the nation, behind only Wake Forest, Illinois, and North Carolina, according to Ken Pomeroy's points-per-possession-based ratings). The Badgers may have lost by ten to Illinois in Champaign a week ago Sunday but they allowed precisely 0 fast break points in the process. How will State react tonight if they're not running? More specifically, how will newly installed starting point guard Drew Neitzel react?
These are the two best rebounding teams in the Big Ten but the difference between the first-ranked Spartans and the Badgers is far greater than that between Wisconsin and third-ranked Minnesota--Michigan State is the best rebounding team in the conference by a considerable margin. And the Spartans shoot a significantly better percentage from the floor than do the Badgers. State's playing at home--what could possibly swing this Wisconsin's way?
Two things: 1) the aforementioned transition defense. Michigan State is shooting a nice percentage from the field in part (only in part) because of a nice number of fast-break dunks and lay-ups. The Badgers will try to shut off that faucet. 2) Turnovers. Michigan State averages almost 14 turnovers a game--not catastrophic, by any means, but not great, either. Again, Wonk wants to see how Neitzel reacts under the bright lights. This is by far his biggest start.
Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are the three best teams in the conference and among those teams there are but five scheduled meetings this season. Tonight's the fifth. Wonk can't wait.
Wisconsin-Michigan State links. The Detroit News has a handy chronology of both Michigan State's 12-game losing streak to ranked opponents and of the Spartans' six-game losing streak against the Badgers. Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal says Bo Ryan "has emerged as MSU fans' favorite villain."...Asked if he thinks Michigan State's players "hate" Wisconsin, Badger big man Mike Wilkinson replies: "'Hate' is a strong word. Maybe dislike a little bit."...Profile of Badger guard Kammron Taylor here....Badger big man Brian Butch is not expected to play. He is still recovering from his bout with mononucleosis.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Minnesota beat Iowa 65-57 in Minneapolis last night. Absent a Big Ten tournament title, the Hawkeyes are going to the NIT for the fourth consecutive year. At 4-9, Steve Alford's team is alone in eighth place in the conference. The Gophers trailed in this game 36-31 with 14 minutes left but were propelled from that point by good shooting from an unlikely source: guard Aaron Robinson hit four second-half three's to lead Dan Monson's team on a 26-7 run. ("Every time I found A-Rob," offers Gopher wing Vincent Grier, "I said, 'Shoot it with confidence, baby.'") Grier had 17 points and Gopher big man Jeff Hagen added 17 rebounds, including 11 offensive boards. "They were hitting shots, and when they weren't hitting shots they were getting offensive rebounds," sums up Iowa guard Adam Haluska. Briskly done, Adam! Indeed, the Gophers recorded a robust 20 offensive boards on 46 opportunities. To Jeff Horner, though, "It's just another frustrating loss." Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler leads off this morning's commentary with an obituary for Iowa's NCAA hopes: "After battling a prolonged illness, Iowa's NCAA Tournament dream died Wednesday night. It was 26 games old." (Keeler keeps the shtick going through the third paragraph: "A preliminary autopsy showed the likely cause of death to be shoddy coaching, compounded by a thin bench, butterflies, sloppy ballhandling, lack of focus and non-existent outside shooting.")
Minnesota plays at Purdue Saturday and at Penn State next Wednesday. If they win both, they will be in excellent position, at 10-6 in conference, to make the dance. If they lose one, they're probably on the outside looking in.
Illinois beat Northwestern 84-48 in Champaign last night. The win clinches at least a share of the Big Ten title for the Illini, their fourth in five seasons. The Illini were at their ball-moving best (22 assists on 32 field goals--"best ball movement I've ever seen in my life," according to one observer named Dee Brown). On one memorable first-half sequence Wonk counted 14 passes leading to a wide open Brown three. Brown scored 20 points on 7-of-10 shooting (6-of-8 on three's) and Roger Powell recorded a double-double with 18 points and 10 boards. Illinois shot .593 from the field and .609 on their three's (14-of-23, coincidentally, the same line from beyond the arc recorded by Indiana in Ann Arbor the other day). Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says Roger Powell "is a lot more important to this team than anyone has ever said." Couch's colleague at the Sun-Times, Herb Gould, says Brown is "playing his way into the Big Ten MVP hunt, which some experts have been conceding to Deron Williams or Luther Head." (Mark Tupper agrees.) As for Brown himself, he's bullish on the Illini. "We've got the things that make you win in March and April: Defense, free-throw shooting and rebounding." Wildcat coach Bill Carmody says Brown and Luther Head have elevated their games: "They've improved. Now they're two of the better long-range shooters in the league. No one thought that two years ago." (Carmody also dismissed talk that Illinois may not be the best team in the country: "If it's not the best team, we're in a lot worse shape than I thought.") Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Illinois may not "have another game like this, and maybe the players sensed it."...Illinois players say they'll be cheering for Michigan State tonight in the Spartans' game against Wisconsin. A Michigan State loss tonight would give the outright Big Ten title to the Illini but the men in orange say they want to win it themselves on their home floor against Purdue next Thursday on Senior Night.
Michigan beat Penn State 63-48 in Ann Arbor last night. Wolverine guard Dion Harris scored 24 points on 10-of-15 shooting. It was Michigan's first win since January 15 (also against Penn State--Tommy Amaker should schedule them more) and the home crowd responded with a standing ovation at the final horn. Afterward Amaker sounded relieved: "It's been a while since we could celebrate in the locker room and sing the Victors." (More here.)
Indefatigable Indiana beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star has posted the latest installment of his outstanding "Ask the Expert" Q&A column.
Kyle Whelliston has competition! Craig DeVrieze of the Quad City Times says a relative dearth of strength in the middle-sections of the "power" conferences has left some so-called mid-majors with some gaudy RPI's this year, including Vermont (RPI 13) and Southern Illinois (RPI 16), not to mention a more obvious program in Spokane.
For what it's worth (and when you see that expression it means it's worth nothing), Frank Burlison of the Sporting News has chosen his 15 Wooden Award finalists and Illinois accounts for an impressive 20 percent of Burlison's picks. Dee Brown, Luther Head and Deron Williams all merit consideration, according to Burlison.
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Whither Alford?
Wonk,
How close is "the enemy" to Steve Alford right now? (You remember his Des Moines Register interview...)
I'd love to see you share some of your analysis on ole Steve sometime.
Love the site. Great job.
Will M.
Wonk was intrigued by this email because your intrepid blogger opened it soon after last night's Hawkeye loss to Minnesota and thought: "Wow, that was fast." But closer scrutiny of the time revealed Will had sent this before the game.
Small distinction but perhaps an important one: if Iowa had won last night they would stand an excellent chance of winning their remaining games (actually, they still do) and perhaps wriggling into the NCAA tournament at 8-8 and 20-9. But now they need to win the Big Ten tournament.
Alford is 105-81 at Iowa (.565) and just 38-55 in conference (.409). Attendance has dropped at Hawkeye home games for four consecutive years to the point where now--again, on average--there are almost 4,000 empty seats in Carver-Hawkeye for every game. And the two-part two-year Pierre Pierce kerfuffle certainly did Alford no favors.
The coach serves at the pleasure of his athletic director and his university. They will look at those facts and make their call. Wonk certainly claims no exclusive omniscience or even particular interest where Hawkeye AD Bob Bowlsby and his conscience are concerned. This blogger knows only that Tom Davis's few down years were the parentheses in a strong program--and that Alford was hired in Iowa City to take that strong program to the next level. No one, least of all Alford himself, is claiming he's done it yet.
Whether he'll be given the opportunity to continue to try, well, we'll see.
¶ 7:05 AM
Wednesday, February 23, 2005
The dawn of time: 1976
The crack professionals on Wonk's Readership Demographics desk inform your intrepid blogger that a robust percentage of this blog's readers are in fact 28 or 29 years old.
To these readers Wonk says: hitch up your Depend undergarments, turn up your Miracle Ears, and give Wonk whatever meager portion of your increasingly age-addled attention you can muster! You have doubtless looked on with increasing alarm over the past few weeks as the year of your birth, 1976, has come to be represented as an epoch as distant and inscrutable as the Bronze Age or perhaps even the era of "Family Guy"....
Wonk refers, of course, to the many, many media invocations of Indiana's undefeated season in 1976. Maybe there were just as many of these invocations last February when St. Joe's was undefeated but if so Wonk has blocked out the memory. This year, with Illinois fast approaching March still undefeated, it feels like you can't swing a cat without knocking over three references to 1976. And so your intrepid blogger has three questions about this 1976-comes-to-2005 stuff....
Isn't there any better footage? During last night's Purdue-Indiana game, ESPN ran footage of the 1976 Michigan-Indiana national championship game that looked like 16mm (silent!) film shot by a 1976-variety local news crew. The film was so grainy and dark Wonk could barely make out the short-shorts. Why is this? Contemporaneous sporting milestones have given us normal-looking archival video. Take Carlton Fisk's walk-off home run in Game 6 of the '75 World Series. That happened six months before Indiana's national championship game and that video looks normal. Is Wonk correct in understanding that NBC covered the Final Four back then and, if so, wouldn't they have the tape?
Can we please interview someone other than Kent Benson? Bob Knight's center on that '76 team, Kent Benson, was a force of nature and a relentless embodiment of John-Wooden-like consistency. Wonk salutes this all-time-great Big Ten player. At the same time, this particular all-time-great has for whatever reason chosen to show an increasingly Mr.-Burns-like aspect to the world in interviews of late and your intrepid blogger feels like we pretty much have all the juice we're going to get from this particular orange: Illinois hasn't done anything yet. OK, got it. Now: what about Scott May or Quinn Buckner? Can we get their thoughts? (Here's a heretical thought. What about Knight?)
Can we acknowledge the factors that might make an undefeated season more difficult now? Last night Jay Bilas of ESPN pointed out the '76 Hoosiers made their run in an era when opposing teams were populated with "junior and senior lottery picks." Fair enough. But are there not also countervailing forces at work today to make running the table a more formidable task? Wonk can think of two: 1) The dead weight of 29 years where no team has done it. Indiana, conversely, was duplicating a feat UCLA had pulled off more than once in the then-recent past. 2) The explosion of sports media coverage. Wonk doesn't wish to shock tender young readers but back in 1976 not every Indiana game was televised. No highlights. No cable sports. No discussion boards. Can it be: no...blogs? (O, the humanity!) Illinois, by notable contrast, is operating in a white-hot parse-every-syllable glare perhaps fully understood only by presidents, Beatles, Steve Bartman, and Melissa Theuriau.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana beat Purdue 79-62 in Bloomington last night. Hoosier fans gave Gene Keady an extended standing ovation before the opening tip. "The ovation was very much appreciated," Keady said afterward. "I'll remember it for a long time, but I'll remember the butt-kicking they gave us even longer." (Also on hand for the festivities last night was Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline, who thinks a chair flung at Keady would have been a more fitting tribute.) Led by 27 points from Bracey Wright, Indiana put up numbers last night that can only be termed Illinois-ish: .491 shooting from the field, .455 on their three's, and only eight turnovers. The Hoosiers put the game away early in the second half with a 20-0 run ("a very big run," Carl Landry called it with admirable understatement). Is this the start of something big for IU or a measure of last night's opponent? Wonk says: little of neither. Indiana will continue to live dangerously as long as Marshall Strickland gets minutes (Strickland had five of the Hoosiers' eight turnovers, albeit with six assists--he got yanked off the point and replaced with Robert Vaden) but your intrepid blogger continues to like the look of little-noted freshman A.J. Ratliff (15 points and 6-of-7 from the field last night). "Right now, our intensity and effort are better than ever," says Mike Davis. As for the Boilers, Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz surveys Keady's final tour of the Big Ten with sorrow: "By any measure, it's been an awful season, maybe the worst way Keady could leave the Big Ten scene." Columnist Tom Kubat of the Lafayette Journal and Courier says, considering the circumstances, Keady "was unbelievably mild mannered."
Minnesota hosts Iowa tonight in Minneapolis, an event Wonk has chosen to christen Bubble Bowl I because, absent a Big Ten tournament title, the loser of tonight's game will not be in the NCAA tournament. Of course, the winner may not be, either....
For those just tuning in, the reason we're even discussing the tournament prospects of Iowa--a team that's 4-8 in conference and one game behind Northwestern in the standings--is their non-conference record. They entered Big Ten play 12-1, meaning, if they can somehow run the table over the next four games, their very mediocre 8-8 record in conference could be put alongside a more impressive 20-9 record overall. And that non-conference record includes wins over Louisville and Texas (when the Longhorns were healthy and whole).
If the Hawkeyes can win their first Big Ten road game tonight they would indeed be in an excellent position to run said table. Their last three games are at Penn State and Michigan and at home against Ohio State. BONUS Wonk admonitory finger-waggling: that being said, never ever count wins in advance with a Steve Alford team. Keep in mind that Iowa, still with Pierre Pierce in the fold, lost at home to Michigan.
And as for Minnesota, a win tonight would leave them in good shape, both mathematically and realistically, to reach the magic 10-6 mark in conference. Since the inception of the 16-game Big Ten schedule, 28 teams have finished 10-6 and 27 of them have received NCAA bids. (The only exception is the 2003 Michigan team which was ineligible for postseason play due to self-imposed Ed-Martin-related sanctions.)
Iowa-Minnesota links. Start with the excellent game preview at Hawkeye Hoops, defining state-of-the-art in team blogs since 2004. And then: "The major issue we have not overcome this Big Ten season is not finishing out the last four minutes in a half, or the last four minutes in a game," says Steve Alford. Hawkeye guard Jeff Horner explains his team's road woes thusly: "It just seems when we go on the road, teams that we should beat are playing very well at the time." Those darn opponents! Meanwhile, Rick Alonzo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says the Gopher fans "who called for coach Dan Monson's job have been quieted." Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune points out that those few Gophers who were also around last year have really boosted their production this year--see the numbers here. (Tonight, by the way, is senior night for the Gophers.)
Illinois hosts Northwestern tonight in Champaign. A win would clinch a share of the Big Ten title for the Illini. It would also eclipse the 27-0 start posted by the 1960-61 Ohio State Buckeyes. Former Buckeye and Boston Celtic great John Havlicek "has seen one Celtics game in person this year ('And please don't ask who they played'), parts of a few Ohio State games on TV and one Illinois game." So let's ask him what he thinks! ''These are days and nights that the members of the Illinois team, their coaches, their families and fans and everyone else around the program will never live through again. Revel in them, enjoy them and make more of them happen."...Northwestern beat Illinois by ten just thirteen short months ago and has won four of their last five games but Wildcat coach Bill Carmody is talking expectations down like a presidential candidate before a debate: "They're a much better team than they were last year. They're more confident. I don't know if we're as good as we were last year."...Bruce Weber says his team will be ready. "Northwestern is trying to make a run, get an NIT bid. Our kids are older and understand it." (Weber also notes that Vedran Vukusic is a tough match-up for the Illini.)...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Weber hopes to make "this season's unselfish share-the-ball mentality...a permanent cornerstone of the program."...Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the "Big Ten Conference MVP has come down to a three-player race and all three wear Illinois jerseys."...Profile of James Augustine here....Inveterate iconoclast Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald has penned what Wonk believes may well be the only Illini article all season with a reference to Liberace.
Michigan hosts Penn State tonight in Ann Arbor. Wonk doesn't wish to spread alarm but after diligent research and profound deliberation your intrepid blogger believes one of these two teams stands an excellent chance of winning tonight's game. Wolverine guard Dion Harris, it would appear, literally cannot remember the last time his team won a game. (More links here and here.)
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo talks up the Big Ten here. Meanwhile, speculation continues that Izzo's Spartans need a win tomorrow night against Wisconsin (the fabled Big Win) to boost themselves from a possible 4-seed to a possible 3.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan is rumored to have a strained relationship with Tom Izzo. But Mark Stewart of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says: forget those old fogies, the outcome of tomorrow night's game between the Spartans and the Badgers will have weighty consequences for both teams.
Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates takes a page from Wonk's book this morning and scans the horizon eagerly, looking for a fourth conference team to take to the NCAA's. Oates doesn't like what he sees: "Except for unbeaten Illinois, which has more go-to guys than many NBA teams, the Big Ten is notably deficient in players who can break down defenses and create shots for themselves and others."
The ACC, the Big Ten, and ESPN announced yesterday that the ACC-Big Ten Challenge has been extended through 2010 and that the new format will feature 11 games instead of nine. Despite a recent history of lopsided outcomes in favor of the ACC, the games continue to draw ever-larger viewing audiences.
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Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Illinois: undroppable?
Wonk,
I have been reading your blog all year and really enjoy it. I have been an Illini fan for quite some time and am thrilled with this dream season.
My question for you is this--if the Illini lose one of their last three regular season games, would anyone be justified in dropping them from the number one ranking? If a number one loses, it seems they always drop a slot or two and you have a new number one. But the way things have gone for the Illini this year, even if they lose a game now, I can't see putting any other team in front of them.
Can you?
Thanks.
Mark T.
To quote the immortal Sammy Davis, Jr.: Yes, I can, Mark! If Illinois lost tonight at home to Northwestern (RPI 145) or in a few days at home to Purdue (RPI 215), the writers who vote for the AP poll and the coaches who vote for the ESPN/USA Today poll would react with sheer unadulterated horror (yes, Edvard Munch-level horror). A road loss to Ohio State (RPI 54) would be less shocking but still enough to bounce the Illini from the top spot.
One of the nice side benefits of having more blogs on college hoops has been the opportunity it's provided for things like the AP poll to be demystified. Take Jeff Shelman's blog. Shelman is an AP voter and he posts his choices each week, often with an explanation of how tough the exercise really is. (Try it: rank 25 teams correctly and don't leave anyone out.)
So polls aren't the apodictic truth. Nor are they Archimedean verdicts on a team's intrinsic worth. They are instead a reflection of current thinking. And if Illinois lost to one of those teams the current thinking would change. (But not enough to jeopardize a 1-seed in the tournament.)
¶ 7:32 AM
The crack professionals on Wonk's Readership Demographics desk inform your intrepid blogger that a robust percentage of this blog's readers are in fact 28 or 29 years old.
To these readers Wonk says: hitch up your Depend undergarments, turn up your Miracle Ears, and give Wonk whatever meager portion of your increasingly age-addled attention you can muster! You have doubtless looked on with increasing alarm over the past few weeks as the year of your birth, 1976, has come to be represented as an epoch as distant and inscrutable as the Bronze Age or perhaps even the era of "Family Guy"....
Wonk refers, of course, to the many, many media invocations of Indiana's undefeated season in 1976. Maybe there were just as many of these invocations last February when St. Joe's was undefeated but if so Wonk has blocked out the memory. This year, with Illinois fast approaching March still undefeated, it feels like you can't swing a cat without knocking over three references to 1976. And so your intrepid blogger has three questions about this 1976-comes-to-2005 stuff....
Isn't there any better footage? During last night's Purdue-Indiana game, ESPN ran footage of the 1976 Michigan-Indiana national championship game that looked like 16mm (silent!) film shot by a 1976-variety local news crew. The film was so grainy and dark Wonk could barely make out the short-shorts. Why is this? Contemporaneous sporting milestones have given us normal-looking archival video. Take Carlton Fisk's walk-off home run in Game 6 of the '75 World Series. That happened six months before Indiana's national championship game and that video looks normal. Is Wonk correct in understanding that NBC covered the Final Four back then and, if so, wouldn't they have the tape?
Can we please interview someone other than Kent Benson? Bob Knight's center on that '76 team, Kent Benson, was a force of nature and a relentless embodiment of John-Wooden-like consistency. Wonk salutes this all-time-great Big Ten player. At the same time, this particular all-time-great has for whatever reason chosen to show an increasingly Mr.-Burns-like aspect to the world in interviews of late and your intrepid blogger feels like we pretty much have all the juice we're going to get from this particular orange: Illinois hasn't done anything yet. OK, got it. Now: what about Scott May or Quinn Buckner? Can we get their thoughts? (Here's a heretical thought. What about Knight?)
Can we acknowledge the factors that might make an undefeated season more difficult now? Last night Jay Bilas of ESPN pointed out the '76 Hoosiers made their run in an era when opposing teams were populated with "junior and senior lottery picks." Fair enough. But are there not also countervailing forces at work today to make running the table a more formidable task? Wonk can think of two: 1) The dead weight of 29 years where no team has done it. Indiana, conversely, was duplicating a feat UCLA had pulled off more than once in the then-recent past. 2) The explosion of sports media coverage. Wonk doesn't wish to shock tender young readers but back in 1976 not every Indiana game was televised. No highlights. No cable sports. No discussion boards. Can it be: no...blogs? (O, the humanity!) Illinois, by notable contrast, is operating in a white-hot parse-every-syllable glare perhaps fully understood only by presidents, Beatles, Steve Bartman, and Melissa Theuriau.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana beat Purdue 79-62 in Bloomington last night. Hoosier fans gave Gene Keady an extended standing ovation before the opening tip. "The ovation was very much appreciated," Keady said afterward. "I'll remember it for a long time, but I'll remember the butt-kicking they gave us even longer." (Also on hand for the festivities last night was Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline, who thinks a chair flung at Keady would have been a more fitting tribute.) Led by 27 points from Bracey Wright, Indiana put up numbers last night that can only be termed Illinois-ish: .491 shooting from the field, .455 on their three's, and only eight turnovers. The Hoosiers put the game away early in the second half with a 20-0 run ("a very big run," Carl Landry called it with admirable understatement). Is this the start of something big for IU or a measure of last night's opponent? Wonk says: little of neither. Indiana will continue to live dangerously as long as Marshall Strickland gets minutes (Strickland had five of the Hoosiers' eight turnovers, albeit with six assists--he got yanked off the point and replaced with Robert Vaden) but your intrepid blogger continues to like the look of little-noted freshman A.J. Ratliff (15 points and 6-of-7 from the field last night). "Right now, our intensity and effort are better than ever," says Mike Davis. As for the Boilers, Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz surveys Keady's final tour of the Big Ten with sorrow: "By any measure, it's been an awful season, maybe the worst way Keady could leave the Big Ten scene." Columnist Tom Kubat of the Lafayette Journal and Courier says, considering the circumstances, Keady "was unbelievably mild mannered."
Minnesota hosts Iowa tonight in Minneapolis, an event Wonk has chosen to christen Bubble Bowl I because, absent a Big Ten tournament title, the loser of tonight's game will not be in the NCAA tournament. Of course, the winner may not be, either....
For those just tuning in, the reason we're even discussing the tournament prospects of Iowa--a team that's 4-8 in conference and one game behind Northwestern in the standings--is their non-conference record. They entered Big Ten play 12-1, meaning, if they can somehow run the table over the next four games, their very mediocre 8-8 record in conference could be put alongside a more impressive 20-9 record overall. And that non-conference record includes wins over Louisville and Texas (when the Longhorns were healthy and whole).
If the Hawkeyes can win their first Big Ten road game tonight they would indeed be in an excellent position to run said table. Their last three games are at Penn State and Michigan and at home against Ohio State. BONUS Wonk admonitory finger-waggling: that being said, never ever count wins in advance with a Steve Alford team. Keep in mind that Iowa, still with Pierre Pierce in the fold, lost at home to Michigan.
And as for Minnesota, a win tonight would leave them in good shape, both mathematically and realistically, to reach the magic 10-6 mark in conference. Since the inception of the 16-game Big Ten schedule, 28 teams have finished 10-6 and 27 of them have received NCAA bids. (The only exception is the 2003 Michigan team which was ineligible for postseason play due to self-imposed Ed-Martin-related sanctions.)
Iowa-Minnesota links. Start with the excellent game preview at Hawkeye Hoops, defining state-of-the-art in team blogs since 2004. And then: "The major issue we have not overcome this Big Ten season is not finishing out the last four minutes in a half, or the last four minutes in a game," says Steve Alford. Hawkeye guard Jeff Horner explains his team's road woes thusly: "It just seems when we go on the road, teams that we should beat are playing very well at the time." Those darn opponents! Meanwhile, Rick Alonzo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says the Gopher fans "who called for coach Dan Monson's job have been quieted." Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune points out that those few Gophers who were also around last year have really boosted their production this year--see the numbers here. (Tonight, by the way, is senior night for the Gophers.)
Illinois hosts Northwestern tonight in Champaign. A win would clinch a share of the Big Ten title for the Illini. It would also eclipse the 27-0 start posted by the 1960-61 Ohio State Buckeyes. Former Buckeye and Boston Celtic great John Havlicek "has seen one Celtics game in person this year ('And please don't ask who they played'), parts of a few Ohio State games on TV and one Illinois game." So let's ask him what he thinks! ''These are days and nights that the members of the Illinois team, their coaches, their families and fans and everyone else around the program will never live through again. Revel in them, enjoy them and make more of them happen."...Northwestern beat Illinois by ten just thirteen short months ago and has won four of their last five games but Wildcat coach Bill Carmody is talking expectations down like a presidential candidate before a debate: "They're a much better team than they were last year. They're more confident. I don't know if we're as good as we were last year."...Bruce Weber says his team will be ready. "Northwestern is trying to make a run, get an NIT bid. Our kids are older and understand it." (Weber also notes that Vedran Vukusic is a tough match-up for the Illini.)...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Weber hopes to make "this season's unselfish share-the-ball mentality...a permanent cornerstone of the program."...Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch says the "Big Ten Conference MVP has come down to a three-player race and all three wear Illinois jerseys."...Profile of James Augustine here....Inveterate iconoclast Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald has penned what Wonk believes may well be the only Illini article all season with a reference to Liberace.
Michigan hosts Penn State tonight in Ann Arbor. Wonk doesn't wish to spread alarm but after diligent research and profound deliberation your intrepid blogger believes one of these two teams stands an excellent chance of winning tonight's game. Wolverine guard Dion Harris, it would appear, literally cannot remember the last time his team won a game. (More links here and here.)
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo talks up the Big Ten here. Meanwhile, speculation continues that Izzo's Spartans need a win tomorrow night against Wisconsin (the fabled Big Win) to boost themselves from a possible 4-seed to a possible 3.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan is rumored to have a strained relationship with Tom Izzo. But Mark Stewart of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says: forget those old fogies, the outcome of tomorrow night's game between the Spartans and the Badgers will have weighty consequences for both teams.
Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates takes a page from Wonk's book this morning and scans the horizon eagerly, looking for a fourth conference team to take to the NCAA's. Oates doesn't like what he sees: "Except for unbeaten Illinois, which has more go-to guys than many NBA teams, the Big Ten is notably deficient in players who can break down defenses and create shots for themselves and others."
The ACC, the Big Ten, and ESPN announced yesterday that the ACC-Big Ten Challenge has been extended through 2010 and that the new format will feature 11 games instead of nine. Despite a recent history of lopsided outcomes in favor of the ACC, the games continue to draw ever-larger viewing audiences.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Illinois: undroppable?
Wonk,
I have been reading your blog all year and really enjoy it. I have been an Illini fan for quite some time and am thrilled with this dream season.
My question for you is this--if the Illini lose one of their last three regular season games, would anyone be justified in dropping them from the number one ranking? If a number one loses, it seems they always drop a slot or two and you have a new number one. But the way things have gone for the Illini this year, even if they lose a game now, I can't see putting any other team in front of them.
Can you?
Thanks.
Mark T.
To quote the immortal Sammy Davis, Jr.: Yes, I can, Mark! If Illinois lost tonight at home to Northwestern (RPI 145) or in a few days at home to Purdue (RPI 215), the writers who vote for the AP poll and the coaches who vote for the ESPN/USA Today poll would react with sheer unadulterated horror (yes, Edvard Munch-level horror). A road loss to Ohio State (RPI 54) would be less shocking but still enough to bounce the Illini from the top spot.
One of the nice side benefits of having more blogs on college hoops has been the opportunity it's provided for things like the AP poll to be demystified. Take Jeff Shelman's blog. Shelman is an AP voter and he posts his choices each week, often with an explanation of how tough the exercise really is. (Try it: rank 25 teams correctly and don't leave anyone out.)
So polls aren't the apodictic truth. Nor are they Archimedean verdicts on a team's intrinsic worth. They are instead a reflection of current thinking. And if Illinois lost to one of those teams the current thinking would change. (But not enough to jeopardize a 1-seed in the tournament.)
¶ 7:32 AM
Tuesday, February 22, 2005
Gene Keady
Purdue plays at Indiana tonight and, barring unforeseen events in the Big Ten tournament, this will be the last game between these two erstwhile rivals during Gene Keady's tenure as coach of the Boilermakers. It seems as good a time as any for a blog devoted to Big Ten basketball to recognize the man who's prowled the sidelines in West Lafayette for 25 years.
Wonk has no long flowery tribute to offer. Merely what I know and what I remember about Keady....
That for far too long, he made my life as an Illinois fan miserable. Every fan scans the schedule of their team in advance and does a quick mental calculation of the likely W's and L's. For many, many years, the date at Mackey Arena was calculated in my book as a likely L.
That he coached the player who to this day is still the single most dominant scorer Wonk has ever seen in Big Ten play, Glenn Robinson.
That, in addition to the above paragraph being true, Keady's "best" players were most often in the Brad Miller/Brian Cardinal mold--players who weren't necessarily the most talented but ones who left it all on the court. (And yet look at those "not so talented" millionaires now.)
That for many years his teams were instantly recognizable as coached by Keady: tenacious defense; rebounding with a vengeance; and tough screens and constant motion on offense.
That he went from being a high school coach in Beloit, Kansas, to the Elite Eight.
That, for all the talk of his recent struggles, Keady is still the last opposing coach to walk in to Assembly Hall in Champaign and walk out with a win.
That he is a spontaneous and witty guy in a profession that seems to be trending toward cautious corporate types.
And that, primarily for this last reason, he will be genuinely missed by this blogger.
Best wishes, Coach.
Forget PPG. Remember PPWS.
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat that not only measures scoring efficiency, it also captures more than just points from the field (unlike, say, points per shot or "PPS"). This stat takes in both FGA's and FTA's. It's points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by Wonk.
Here are the latest Big Ten PPWS numbers and, no, the top three aren't alphabetized. This is the actual order of finish for the week, with the top three separated by mere hundredths of a point:
Top 20 PPWS
1. James Augustine, Illinois (1.38)
2. Dee Brown, Illinois (1.38)
3. Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (1.38)
4. Luther Head, Illinois (1.32)
5. Carl Landry, Purdue (1.32)
6. Brent Lawson, Minnesota (1.28)
7. Alan Anderson, Michigan State (1.28)
8. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.27)
9. Jeff Hagen, Minnesota (1.27)
10. Roger Powell, Illinois (1.26)
11. J.J. Sullinger, Ohio State (1.26)
12. Adam Haluska, Iowa (1.25)
13. Michael Jenkins, Northwestern (1.24)
14. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.24)
15. D.J. White, Indiana (1.24)
16. Vince Scott, Northwestern (1.23)
17. Chris Hill, Michigan State (1.23)
18. A.J. Ratliff, Indiana (1.22)
19. Aaron Robinson, Minnesota (1.22)
20. Clayton Hanson, Wisconsin (1.22)
Bottom 20 PPWS
1. Ben Luber, Penn State (0.81)
2. Nick Smith, Illinois (0.86)
3. Brandon McKnight, Purdue (0.87)
4. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (0.88)
5. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (0.91)
6. Roderick Wilmont, Indiana (0.91)
7. Mike Henderson, Iowa (0.92)
8. Andreas Helmigk, Wisconsin (0.93)
9. David Teague, Purdue (0.95)
10. Dion Harris, Michigan (0.95)
11. Brandon Fuss-Cheatham, Ohio State (0.95)
12. Gary Ware, Purdue (0.96)
13. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (0.97)
14. Xavier Price, Purdue (0.97)
15. Dan Coleman, Minnesota (0.98)
16. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (0.99)
17. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (0.99)
18. Warren Carter, Illinois (1.00)
19. Erek Hansen, Iowa (1.01)
20. Aaron Johnson, Penn State (1.02)
What it means. Give James Augustine 12 FGA's and six FTA's and he'll likely score about 20 points. Give Ben Luber the same number of shots and he'll likely score about 12.
What it really means. In his own ruminations, Wonk has taken to using PPWS not so much as a ranking but as more of a character reference. With all due respect to James Augustine and Kelvin Torbert, your intrepid blogger directs your attention to the other three names in the top five: Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry. While scoring about 100 more points than Torbert or Augustine, these three are performing at virtually the same level of efficiency. Incredible. And Landry in particular merits a new adjective. This guy is not only scoring lots of points, he's somehow doing so efficiently without any--and Wonk means ANY--other consistent scoring threat on his team. What a gamer. Prodigious and efficient scorers Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana hosts Purdue tonight in Bloomington. Gene Keady is 6-17 lifetime at IU--but one of those six wins, of course, furnished the impetus for one of the most famous set-pieces in college hoops history: Bobby Knight throwing a chair on the court in disgust as his Hoosiers go down to defeat against the Boilermakers, February 23, 1985. (And which Boilermaker was at the free-throw line when the chair was thrown? Link here and all will be revealed.) As for tonight's game, Wonk trusts no furniture will be hurled, however....Looking back on the rivalry, Keady offers what could almost be a credo for his career: "I remember the technicals and the hard-fought games."...After injuring his knee in practice last Friday and being limited to his most ineffective outing of the year Saturday against Michigan State, Purdue big man Carl Landry says he's good to go: "85-to-90 percent," according to his own self-assessment....Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Journal and Courier says the Indiana-Purdue rivalry isn't the same without Knight. Boilermaker head-coach-in-waiting Matt Painter agrees: "It has lost its sting."...As for the Hoosiers, they say they'll be ready tonight, even with just one day of rest since Sunday's victory in Ann Arbor against Michigan. "Normally, it might take a lot out of us having a quick turnaround like that," says Robert Vaden. "But this is Purdue."
Former Minnesota coach Clem Haskins says he will be in attendance Saturday when the Gophers play at Purdue. Haskins says he will be there at the invitation of Gene Keady, who will be coaching his last game in Mackey Arena. Dan Monson's predecessor hasn't seen a Minnesota game since he was fired after the 1999 season amid an academic fraud scandal that ultimately resulted in NCAA sanctions. Haskins served under Keady for two seasons as an assistant at Western Kentucky....St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Charley Waters looks at the suddenly available former coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves and says, no, Flip Saunders will not replace Dan Monson as coach at the University of Minnesota. No one will, Waters says: Monson's staying....Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse says Monson was wise to play a relatively soft non-conference schedule back in November and December....Monson says his team knows it will have a tough game against Iowa tomorrow night because the Minnesota players remember how the Hawkeyes (albeit with Pierre Pierce) were able to contain Vincent Grier in Iowa City in January. "They were the first team to have done that this year."
Iowa coach Steve Alford says he's not concerned about his job security. "That’s just not something I worry about." Alford also says his team needs to make its case for a tournament bid in the next two-and-a-half weeks. "I'm going to continue to push guys like Greg (Brunner) and Jeff (Horner) and Adam (Haluska), guys that are veterans of playing at this level, and I demand more of them. I've got to be tougher on them. But I also want them to know it's nothing personal, and I really appreciate what they're giving." Nevertheless, the Hawkeye coach says his team would accept an NIT bid if Iowa doesn't make the NCAA tournament. "I wouldn't think we'd ever turn down postseason play."
Illinois guard Deron Williams denied a report yesterday by Sporting News NBA writer Sean Deveney that he "already has decided he will hire an agent and leave school." "That's not true,'' Williams said. "I don't know where that came from. I'm worried about the season right now. After the season, I'll decide that." Williams has said that he will go pro if he's projected as a first-round pick. Deveney's item quoted "one scout" as saying Williams would likely be a 15 to 25 pick in the first round....Bruce Weber is said to be "furious" about the timing of an article in Sunday's Chicago Tribune which revisited the November 2003 break-in at a University of Illinois apartment and Luther Head's alleged involvement in the burglary....Weber will be on ESPN's "Pardon the Interruption" today at 5 Eastern....Weber and his players say that in the event of a win tomorrow night at home against Northwestern, there will be no celebration--even though a win will clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title for the Illini....Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald gets to stretch out a little bit and delivers 1,000 words from behind the scenes at an Illinois practice.
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline looks at Michigan State and says "Illinois is better than Michigan State, but then, Illinois is better than everyone in college basketball." Conclusion? "Don't go to sleep on Michigan State, which hasn't received enough credit for being what it is: one of the handful of teams, non-Illinois division, with the talent and depth to win the national championship."...Tom Izzo says his top-10 team is held in higher regard by national media than by local media. Does that bother him? Heck, no! "I'm going to do the opposite of Tom Izzo. I'm going to start focusing more on the positive things that have happened."...Kelvin Torbert is in a rare shooting slump, going just 2-of-14 on his three's over the past four games.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan says his team is ready as it embarks on a demanding stretch where the Badgers will play three games in six days. "You just play it....It's all TV and everything else that sets it up. We don't have any control." Wisconsin plays at Michigan State Thursday night, at Ohio State Sunday, and then returns to Madison to host Indiana one week from tonight.
Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says suspending Michigan guard Daniel Horton for the rest of the season was the right thing to do.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The alert readers are still all "discoursey for DeCourcy"!
Wonk received many, many interesting emails in response to Friday's interview of Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News. So here's another one....
Wonk,
I discovered your blog a few weeks ago when it was mentioned by one of the SI or ESPN writers, and have been really enjoying it ever since.
Great interview with Mike DeCourcy today. As an Illini alum in Arizona, I have often wondered about the “East Coast bias” allegation. I always thought it had a lot to do with the time difference – that a lot of West coast games are still going on by the time the East coast writers are finishing their stories. What Mike pointed out about the Pac-10’s TV rights was an angle I hadn’t heard before and makes perfect sense. I personally am sick of hearing about the ACC and Duke in particular, and took great satisfaction in Illinois’ dismantling of Wake Forest at the start of the season.
There’s a pretty good Illini connection here in Phoenix, with Jerry Colangelo, former owner of the Phoenix Suns whose son Bryan is the GM, and Eddie Johnson (my Illini classmate) one of the Suns commentators. I think there are some parallels between the Suns and the Illini – they both have great athletes who like to push the pace, don’t have a lot of height (at least among those getting the most minutes), play very unselfishly, and are great fun to watch. I think the Illini are going to do much better in the postseason, however.
Keep up the great work!
Beth K.
Thanks, Beth! Interesting parallel. Wonk thinks Illini fans wouldn't mind having Amare Stoudemire in orange. (Bearing in mind, of course, that the NBA All-Star is younger than either Jack Ingram or Nick Smith. Amazing.)
PPWS for other conferences? Is this allowed?
Wonk,
I enjoy the weekly update of your PPWS stats for the league. Do you have any information for comparison from the other leagues? As a Spartan fan, I'm interested to know if anyone out there is bettering Kelvin Torbert's mark!
I greatly enjoy the blog. Thanks for the highly entertaining work.
Jeff K. in upstate NY
Thanks, Jeff! Wonk regrets to inform you, however, that, as seen in today's post, Torbert's recent slump has dropped him to third in the Big Ten in PPWS.
As for other conferences, Wonk ran some famous names just to see where they fall out--call it PPWS for random big names:
Salim Stoudamire, Arizona (1.46)
Andrew Bogut, Utah (1.37)
Ike Diogu, Arizona State (1.34)
Shelden Williams, Duke (1.28)
J.J. Redick, Duke (1.25)
Raymond Felton, North Carolina (1.25)
Sean May, North Carolina (1.24)
Rashad McCants, North Carolina (1.23)
Wayne Simien, Kansas (1.21)
Hakim Warrick, Syracuse (1.20)
Francisco Garcia, Louisville (1.20)
Taylor Coppenrath, Vermont (1.19)
Gerry McNamara, Syracuse (1.12)
Lawrence Roberts, Mississippi State (1.08)
Conclusion: Stoudamire is having a year for the ages.
¶ 7:59 AM
Purdue plays at Indiana tonight and, barring unforeseen events in the Big Ten tournament, this will be the last game between these two erstwhile rivals during Gene Keady's tenure as coach of the Boilermakers. It seems as good a time as any for a blog devoted to Big Ten basketball to recognize the man who's prowled the sidelines in West Lafayette for 25 years.
Wonk has no long flowery tribute to offer. Merely what I know and what I remember about Keady....
That for far too long, he made my life as an Illinois fan miserable. Every fan scans the schedule of their team in advance and does a quick mental calculation of the likely W's and L's. For many, many years, the date at Mackey Arena was calculated in my book as a likely L.
That he coached the player who to this day is still the single most dominant scorer Wonk has ever seen in Big Ten play, Glenn Robinson.
That, in addition to the above paragraph being true, Keady's "best" players were most often in the Brad Miller/Brian Cardinal mold--players who weren't necessarily the most talented but ones who left it all on the court. (And yet look at those "not so talented" millionaires now.)
That for many years his teams were instantly recognizable as coached by Keady: tenacious defense; rebounding with a vengeance; and tough screens and constant motion on offense.
That he went from being a high school coach in Beloit, Kansas, to the Elite Eight.
That, for all the talk of his recent struggles, Keady is still the last opposing coach to walk in to Assembly Hall in Champaign and walk out with a win.
That he is a spontaneous and witty guy in a profession that seems to be trending toward cautious corporate types.
And that, primarily for this last reason, he will be genuinely missed by this blogger.
Best wishes, Coach.
Forget PPG. Remember PPWS.
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat that not only measures scoring efficiency, it also captures more than just points from the field (unlike, say, points per shot or "PPS"). This stat takes in both FGA's and FTA's. It's points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by Wonk.
Here are the latest Big Ten PPWS numbers and, no, the top three aren't alphabetized. This is the actual order of finish for the week, with the top three separated by mere hundredths of a point:
Top 20 PPWS
1. James Augustine, Illinois (1.38)
2. Dee Brown, Illinois (1.38)
3. Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (1.38)
4. Luther Head, Illinois (1.32)
5. Carl Landry, Purdue (1.32)
6. Brent Lawson, Minnesota (1.28)
7. Alan Anderson, Michigan State (1.28)
8. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.27)
9. Jeff Hagen, Minnesota (1.27)
10. Roger Powell, Illinois (1.26)
11. J.J. Sullinger, Ohio State (1.26)
12. Adam Haluska, Iowa (1.25)
13. Michael Jenkins, Northwestern (1.24)
14. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.24)
15. D.J. White, Indiana (1.24)
16. Vince Scott, Northwestern (1.23)
17. Chris Hill, Michigan State (1.23)
18. A.J. Ratliff, Indiana (1.22)
19. Aaron Robinson, Minnesota (1.22)
20. Clayton Hanson, Wisconsin (1.22)
Bottom 20 PPWS
1. Ben Luber, Penn State (0.81)
2. Nick Smith, Illinois (0.86)
3. Brandon McKnight, Purdue (0.87)
4. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (0.88)
5. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (0.91)
6. Roderick Wilmont, Indiana (0.91)
7. Mike Henderson, Iowa (0.92)
8. Andreas Helmigk, Wisconsin (0.93)
9. David Teague, Purdue (0.95)
10. Dion Harris, Michigan (0.95)
11. Brandon Fuss-Cheatham, Ohio State (0.95)
12. Gary Ware, Purdue (0.96)
13. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (0.97)
14. Xavier Price, Purdue (0.97)
15. Dan Coleman, Minnesota (0.98)
16. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (0.99)
17. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (0.99)
18. Warren Carter, Illinois (1.00)
19. Erek Hansen, Iowa (1.01)
20. Aaron Johnson, Penn State (1.02)
What it means. Give James Augustine 12 FGA's and six FTA's and he'll likely score about 20 points. Give Ben Luber the same number of shots and he'll likely score about 12.
What it really means. In his own ruminations, Wonk has taken to using PPWS not so much as a ranking but as more of a character reference. With all due respect to James Augustine and Kelvin Torbert, your intrepid blogger directs your attention to the other three names in the top five: Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry. While scoring about 100 more points than Torbert or Augustine, these three are performing at virtually the same level of efficiency. Incredible. And Landry in particular merits a new adjective. This guy is not only scoring lots of points, he's somehow doing so efficiently without any--and Wonk means ANY--other consistent scoring threat on his team. What a gamer. Prodigious and efficient scorers Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana hosts Purdue tonight in Bloomington. Gene Keady is 6-17 lifetime at IU--but one of those six wins, of course, furnished the impetus for one of the most famous set-pieces in college hoops history: Bobby Knight throwing a chair on the court in disgust as his Hoosiers go down to defeat against the Boilermakers, February 23, 1985. (And which Boilermaker was at the free-throw line when the chair was thrown? Link here and all will be revealed.) As for tonight's game, Wonk trusts no furniture will be hurled, however....Looking back on the rivalry, Keady offers what could almost be a credo for his career: "I remember the technicals and the hard-fought games."...After injuring his knee in practice last Friday and being limited to his most ineffective outing of the year Saturday against Michigan State, Purdue big man Carl Landry says he's good to go: "85-to-90 percent," according to his own self-assessment....Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Journal and Courier says the Indiana-Purdue rivalry isn't the same without Knight. Boilermaker head-coach-in-waiting Matt Painter agrees: "It has lost its sting."...As for the Hoosiers, they say they'll be ready tonight, even with just one day of rest since Sunday's victory in Ann Arbor against Michigan. "Normally, it might take a lot out of us having a quick turnaround like that," says Robert Vaden. "But this is Purdue."
Former Minnesota coach Clem Haskins says he will be in attendance Saturday when the Gophers play at Purdue. Haskins says he will be there at the invitation of Gene Keady, who will be coaching his last game in Mackey Arena. Dan Monson's predecessor hasn't seen a Minnesota game since he was fired after the 1999 season amid an academic fraud scandal that ultimately resulted in NCAA sanctions. Haskins served under Keady for two seasons as an assistant at Western Kentucky....St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Charley Waters looks at the suddenly available former coach of the Minnesota Timberwolves and says, no, Flip Saunders will not replace Dan Monson as coach at the University of Minnesota. No one will, Waters says: Monson's staying....Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse says Monson was wise to play a relatively soft non-conference schedule back in November and December....Monson says his team knows it will have a tough game against Iowa tomorrow night because the Minnesota players remember how the Hawkeyes (albeit with Pierre Pierce) were able to contain Vincent Grier in Iowa City in January. "They were the first team to have done that this year."
Iowa coach Steve Alford says he's not concerned about his job security. "That’s just not something I worry about." Alford also says his team needs to make its case for a tournament bid in the next two-and-a-half weeks. "I'm going to continue to push guys like Greg (Brunner) and Jeff (Horner) and Adam (Haluska), guys that are veterans of playing at this level, and I demand more of them. I've got to be tougher on them. But I also want them to know it's nothing personal, and I really appreciate what they're giving." Nevertheless, the Hawkeye coach says his team would accept an NIT bid if Iowa doesn't make the NCAA tournament. "I wouldn't think we'd ever turn down postseason play."
Illinois guard Deron Williams denied a report yesterday by Sporting News NBA writer Sean Deveney that he "already has decided he will hire an agent and leave school." "That's not true,'' Williams said. "I don't know where that came from. I'm worried about the season right now. After the season, I'll decide that." Williams has said that he will go pro if he's projected as a first-round pick. Deveney's item quoted "one scout" as saying Williams would likely be a 15 to 25 pick in the first round....Bruce Weber is said to be "furious" about the timing of an article in Sunday's Chicago Tribune which revisited the November 2003 break-in at a University of Illinois apartment and Luther Head's alleged involvement in the burglary....Weber will be on ESPN's "Pardon the Interruption" today at 5 Eastern....Weber and his players say that in the event of a win tomorrow night at home against Northwestern, there will be no celebration--even though a win will clinch at least a share of the Big Ten title for the Illini....Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald gets to stretch out a little bit and delivers 1,000 words from behind the scenes at an Illinois practice.
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline looks at Michigan State and says "Illinois is better than Michigan State, but then, Illinois is better than everyone in college basketball." Conclusion? "Don't go to sleep on Michigan State, which hasn't received enough credit for being what it is: one of the handful of teams, non-Illinois division, with the talent and depth to win the national championship."...Tom Izzo says his top-10 team is held in higher regard by national media than by local media. Does that bother him? Heck, no! "I'm going to do the opposite of Tom Izzo. I'm going to start focusing more on the positive things that have happened."...Kelvin Torbert is in a rare shooting slump, going just 2-of-14 on his three's over the past four games.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan says his team is ready as it embarks on a demanding stretch where the Badgers will play three games in six days. "You just play it....It's all TV and everything else that sets it up. We don't have any control." Wisconsin plays at Michigan State Thursday night, at Ohio State Sunday, and then returns to Madison to host Indiana one week from tonight.
Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says suspending Michigan guard Daniel Horton for the rest of the season was the right thing to do.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The alert readers are still all "discoursey for DeCourcy"!
Wonk received many, many interesting emails in response to Friday's interview of Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News. So here's another one....
Wonk,
I discovered your blog a few weeks ago when it was mentioned by one of the SI or ESPN writers, and have been really enjoying it ever since.
Great interview with Mike DeCourcy today. As an Illini alum in Arizona, I have often wondered about the “East Coast bias” allegation. I always thought it had a lot to do with the time difference – that a lot of West coast games are still going on by the time the East coast writers are finishing their stories. What Mike pointed out about the Pac-10’s TV rights was an angle I hadn’t heard before and makes perfect sense. I personally am sick of hearing about the ACC and Duke in particular, and took great satisfaction in Illinois’ dismantling of Wake Forest at the start of the season.
There’s a pretty good Illini connection here in Phoenix, with Jerry Colangelo, former owner of the Phoenix Suns whose son Bryan is the GM, and Eddie Johnson (my Illini classmate) one of the Suns commentators. I think there are some parallels between the Suns and the Illini – they both have great athletes who like to push the pace, don’t have a lot of height (at least among those getting the most minutes), play very unselfishly, and are great fun to watch. I think the Illini are going to do much better in the postseason, however.
Keep up the great work!
Beth K.
Thanks, Beth! Interesting parallel. Wonk thinks Illini fans wouldn't mind having Amare Stoudemire in orange. (Bearing in mind, of course, that the NBA All-Star is younger than either Jack Ingram or Nick Smith. Amazing.)
PPWS for other conferences? Is this allowed?
Wonk,
I enjoy the weekly update of your PPWS stats for the league. Do you have any information for comparison from the other leagues? As a Spartan fan, I'm interested to know if anyone out there is bettering Kelvin Torbert's mark!
I greatly enjoy the blog. Thanks for the highly entertaining work.
Jeff K. in upstate NY
Thanks, Jeff! Wonk regrets to inform you, however, that, as seen in today's post, Torbert's recent slump has dropped him to third in the Big Ten in PPWS.
As for other conferences, Wonk ran some famous names just to see where they fall out--call it PPWS for random big names:
Salim Stoudamire, Arizona (1.46)
Andrew Bogut, Utah (1.37)
Ike Diogu, Arizona State (1.34)
Shelden Williams, Duke (1.28)
J.J. Redick, Duke (1.25)
Raymond Felton, North Carolina (1.25)
Sean May, North Carolina (1.24)
Rashad McCants, North Carolina (1.23)
Wayne Simien, Kansas (1.21)
Hakim Warrick, Syracuse (1.20)
Francisco Garcia, Louisville (1.20)
Taylor Coppenrath, Vermont (1.19)
Gerry McNamara, Syracuse (1.12)
Lawrence Roberts, Mississippi State (1.08)
Conclusion: Stoudamire is having a year for the ages.
¶ 7:59 AM
Monday, February 21, 2005
Need a fourth?
Just 20 days to go until selection Sunday and, like a desperate threesome on the first tee, the Big Ten is still tapping its foot nervously and watching for a fourth team to join Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin as sure-thing's for tournament bids.
Don't get Wonk wrong: a fifth such team would be wonderful--as would a sixth and indeed (like the old days) a seventh. But your intrepid blogger, dedicated blogospheric servant that he is, deals in facts and the fact right now is that only three teams have secured bids. As a matter of appearances, a fourth would be nice.
And so your intrepid blogger has a suggestion for fans of the conference: come Thursday morning, root for the winner of Wednesday's Minnesota-Iowa game.
Now, let Wonk be plain: this blogger has nothing at all against, say, Indiana and, indeed, would be thrilled to pieces if all three of the above made the tournament. But....
1) As of this morning Indiana has an RPI (81) that makes on-lookers turn away in Edvard Munch-level horror--doubtless the selection committee will do the same (if they even get as far as looking). And their 7-5 record in conference is nice (as was their road win at Ann Arbor yesterday--see below) but keep in mind that to this point far they've played the big three of Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin a grand total of...twice. That's about to change as the Hoosiers host the Spartans and then journey to Madison in the next eight days. (Minnesota and Iowa, by teachable contrast, have each played four games against those three teams and are safely past that section of their schedules.)
2) At 67, Iowa's RPI is but 14 places higher than the Hoosiers'--less horrifying at first blush, granted, but still in the highly-questionable 60s. Not to mention the following NC-17 fact that's going tactfully unmentioned but that Wonk feels should be brought before the public in a responsible and mature fashion: as of this weekend Iowa is actually a game behind Northwestern in the Big Ten standings. So Wednesday's game between the Hawkeyes and the Gophers (RPI 54) is shaping up as a true Bubble Bowl: the loser will not make the tournament (unless they win the Big Ten tournament).
Here's how we got to this point....
Indiana beat Michigan 70-63 in Ann Arbor yesterday in a game that bids fair to win this blogger's 1997 Florida Marlins Commemorative Fluke Award. Stat-watchers such as Wonk don't wish to admit that such things exist but here, truly, was a game indicative of absolutely nothing, to wit: the Hoosiers shot .609 on their three's (not a typo--they were 14-of-23). Not bad for a team that entered the weekend as the worst team in the conference at shooting three's. (This single game lifted them to ninth.) And inside the arc Indiana was just 7-of-23 (.304). Errek Suhr (yes, Errek Suhr) entered the game with six career points. He was 3-of-4 on his threes. Marshall Strickland came in shooting .265 on his three's. He went 4-of-6 from behind the arc. Tommy Amaker wins this week's Bob Newhart Award for outstanding achievement in the field of understatement for this sum-up: "Indiana's ability to hit three-point shots was a key." "Amazing," Hoosier beat writer Terry Hutchens says of IU's sudden accuracy in this morning's Indianapolis Star. Hutchens' colleague at the Star, columnist Bob Kravitz, says this Indiana team is still alive: "Barely." At least until tomorrow night's game between the Hoosiers and Purdue, Michigan is all alone in tenth place in the conference, above only Penn State. "It's been a motivating factor every time we lose a game," said Wolverine big man Brent Petway after the game. By that metric, Michigan--having lost ten straight--is now one of the most highly motivated teams in the country.
Former Wolverine great Glen Rice was honored at halftime of yesterday's game and his jersey was retired. Michigan played having just learned that guard Daniel Horton's suspension will be carried through to the end of this season. Columnist Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News cries foul: "I'm impressed by the way [Michigan] stood up for a principle. I'd be more impressed if they also stood up for the player, who had never been in trouble with the law."
Illinois beat Iowa 75-65 Saturday in Iowa City. This game's being compared to the one played between the same two teams in Champaign January 20. It shouldn't be. The Hawkeyes may "match up well" with the Illini and it certainly looked that way a month ago when Steve Alford's team limited the men in orange to .328 shooting from the field. Funny thing about Saturday's game, though: with the exceptions of rebounds and opponent FTA's (see below), Illinois pretty much had its normal numbers. Bruce Weber will take 10 turnovers and 75 points on .481 shooting on the road any day. So why was this contest so close (just a two-point game with four minutes left)?
1) Because Illinois, a slightly better rebounding team than Iowa, got absolutely hammered on the boards, 36-21. Watching this strange twist of fate occur, Wonk thought of the CSTV behind-the-scenes look at the Illini (due to be aired next month), in which Bruce Weber is seen going ballistic in practice and screaming: "Is it written somewhere that Illinois guards don't have to rebound?" Nor do the non-James-Augustine Illini bigs escape blame: Augustine had eight boards; no one else in orange had more than three. Roger Powell has an excuse: he played just 11 minutes. But Jack Ingram, Nick Smith, and Warren Carter (given minutes due to Rich McBride's flu-like symptoms) between them totaled 37 minutes and only four boards. Unconscionable.
2) Iowa shot 26 free throws. Which doesn't sound like all that many (and indeed Illinois shot 23) until you remember that the Hawkeyes attempted only 43 field goals (even with all those rebounds) in a game with 140 total points. If they hadn't given the visitors 21 turnovers, Iowa was on course to shoot an honest 30-plus FTA's. (By "honest" Wonk means uninflated by late hacking by an opponent trying to come from behind.) And, make no mistake, they need those trips to the line. Wonk suddenly understands Alford's owlish fascination with FTA's and his ritual complaints after road losses about his team not getting enough of them. But your intrepid blogger worries about the effect this stratagem is having on the Hawkeyes: they play very much like a team looking to outside forces (e.g., refs) to help them out--instead of like a team (e.g., Illinois) looking to get the damn W no matter what.
BONUS puzzling over Haluska. Wonk has already been known to wonder aloud about Adam Haluska's strange lack of court sense. Well, your intrepid blogger herewith wonders again. I am told the guy is an Iowa high-school hoops (and track) legend but at times he looks for all the world like some Belgian prodigy who was just introduced to the game two years ago. The latest example being his two very odd fouls on Dee Brown on breakaways. These Basketball 101 lapses were more aesthetically jarring than truly harmful (together the two miscues cost the Hawkeyes one point) but, still, in what Iowa was hoping was going to be a close game they were very prominent indeed.
Steve Alford does Wonk's job! Check it out: "We threw about everything we had at them. We made more free throws than they did and we outrebounded them by 15, but they still beat us by 10. They just don’t seem to feel any pressure.” So how'd the Illini do it, Coach? "One team turned it over 11 more times. You can't give the No. 1 team 11 more times to score; that's too much for our team to overcome." Briskly done, Steve! That about sums it up. Columnist Pat Harty of the Iowa City Press-Citizen, conversely, does not share Wonk's high opinion of Alford's skills at summation. "Just when you think [Alford] has said the wrong things at the wrong time for the last time," Harty writes, "he does it again." Specifically, Harty thinks Alford is deflecting blame when he utters the following observation: "Good teams, good players, they find a way to make plays, and we've got to learn those things." Meanwhile Harty's colleague at the Press-Citizen, Hawkeye beat writer Susan Harman, says Illinois "met every challenge with poise born of experience, talent and confidence."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Saturday's game included what for him will be remembered as the play of the year for these Illini: with three minutes to play in the game, Luther Head deflected a Hawkeye inbound pass and then saved it from going out of bounds by flipping it back over his head. From there Augustine outjumped two Iowa players to tap it to Deron Williams. Williams bumped it ahead to Brown. Brown made the fast-break layup and was fouled by Haluska. Not a bad choice by Tupper....The indefatigable Tupper doesn't just blog, he writes a column! In yesterday's piece, Tupper talks about Nick Smith: inappropriately loquacious with his laments of too little playing time earlier in the week, needlessly silent in heroic victory Saturday afternoon. Alas. (More coverage of the strong silent Smith here and here.)
Chicago Tribune columnist Mike Downey says this game "was a little more exciting than the Exciting Illini would have liked it to be. It was one of their poorest performances and one of their tightest games from beginning to end." "Credit Dee Brown, who's hot," says Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times, "and Nick Smith, who has been feeling left out in the cold, for making the big plays down the stretch." Steve Alford says the Hawkeyes have been able to hang with the Illini and their "war-tested" backcourt twice this season largely because they've contained Roger Powell....Deron Williams admits he, too, has been surprised by this team. "At the start of the year, I don't think there was any way to think we'd be undefeated at this point."...Bill Liesse of the Peoria Journal Star says he knows Illini-mania is reaching truly Beatles-in-'64 proportions because "half the autograph seekers in Saturday's postgame wore gold and black." Liesse also says the adulation is deserved because the Illinois guards are without equal: "Be honest, now. Can anyone picture any of Illinois' guards panicking like UNC's Ray Felton did on the last possession at Duke?"
Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti still thinks it would be best for Illinois to lose a game before the big dance. This time he advances the theory that the media coverage of an undefeated team (including scrutiny of its less sunny aspects--see next paragraph) will quickly intensify to the point where it could engulf the heretofore happy Illini.
David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune takes another look at the November 2003 "incident" in which Luther Head allegedly participated in a break-in at an off-campus apartment. "The contrast," Haugh notes, "between the way Illinois coach Bruce Weber handled the incident—he suspended Head and two teammates for four games but welcomed them back to the team—and the disposition of criminal cases involving other Big Ten basketball players is still bothersome to some people."
WANTED: An Iowa media guru, to explain to Wonk how in the world the Des Moines Register could have only this wire story on its website as late as mid-day Sunday when the number 1 team in the nation has played a road game against the state's flagship university. (Since then, the Register has at last posted this write up from its beat writer--but why the delay?)
The last time your intrepid blogger noted such a coverage anomaly in our Big Ten hoops world, it had taken place in the byzantine world of Detroit media and the explanation (befuddling to the not-very-bright Wonk yet transparently obvious to many alert readers who chimed in with an avalanche of emails) involved something about overlapping newspaper ownerships, joint operating agreements, the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis.
I'm sure something equally odd yet locally understood is at work in this instance. But what is that exactly? Clue me in!
BONUS note about the showers. Just about every story on this game mentions the fact that the Illini had no hot water at their Iowa City hotel Saturday morning. Wonk demands a full investigation!
Three years ago your intrepid blogger lived in Sacramento when the Lakers came to town for the Western Conference Finals and Kobe Bryant was seriously slowed for game 2 because of a bad cheeseburger he ordered from room service at a downtown Sacramento hotel. The subsequent coverage and investigation of this episode was perhaps equaled in modern times only by the Starr Report. Wonk confidently awaits the similarly-sized onslaught of second-wave stories here.
Minnesota beat Ohio State 52-50 in Minneapolis Saturday. The Buckeyes shot just .358 from the field, were outrebounded by 13, and attempted (per usual for Thad Matta's team) only eight free throws. Yet they only lost by two. For their part the Gophers recorded a notable eight blocks. Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan says the Gophers are OK with winning ugly, which is why Jeff Hagen "is their perfect poster player." Souhan's colleague at the Star Tribune, Jeff Shelman, says "when a game is seemingly played in mud, the Gophers probably are going to win."
Michigan State beat Purdue 68-57 in West Lafayette Saturday. Carl Landry was hobbled by an injured knee suffered in practice the day before and was limited to just seven points, a season-low. Gene Keady termed his team's performance "embarrassing." "We lacked making that one big play," said Purdue guard David Teague. The home loss ensures that the Boilers will post their first losing season at home in the history of the 38-year-old Mackey Arena. (The game served as a reunion for many former Boilers who returned to Mackey to honor Keady. No-shows included Glenn Robinson and Brian Cardinal.) Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says for Matt Painter to turn things around in West Lafayette, he needs to start keeping the in-state talent in-state....Indefatigable Detroit News Spartan beat writer Dave Dye points out that State's won five games on the road in conference by an average of over 15 points. Chris Hill says quieting a crowd on the road is as good as it gets: "That's one of the best feelings. To be on the road and be able to hear silence." Drew Neitzel scored a career-high 10 points and self-assesses: "I'm playing my best ball."
Northwestern beat Penn State 54-39 Saturday in Evanston, the latest in a series of archetypal Welsh-Ryan Arena scores. In what turned out to be a futile attempt to shake things up, PSU coach Ed DeChellis shuffled his lineup and gave first-ever starts to who-dat's Kevin Fellows and Jason McDougald. The Wildcats can still qualify for the NIT if they win two of their final four games.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline weighs in on this fourth-bid stuff that's got Wonk so intrigued and says: Iowa's done but Minnesota is still alive.
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says he wants Dee Brown to cut down on the fouls....Skip Myslenski of the Chicago Tribune looks at "other contenders" for the national championship here. (No, Wonk doesn't understand the list, either. At first I thought it was comprised of teams that could end up in the same regional as the Illini but then I saw Michigan State. Maybe the print edition explains the rationale behind this odd piece?)...Illinois says it's taking its next three opponents seriously, etc., etc....The Illini are rewriting the record book, etc., etc.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The alert readers are all "discoursey for DeCourcy"!
Wonk received many, many interesting emails in response to Friday's interview of Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News. Your intrepid blogger will try to work as many of them in this week as practicable. Here's a taste....
Wonk,
Great interview. Great blog.
I think the point by DeCourcy about UNLV '91 was right on the mark. Skip Prosser made a point earlier this year about enjoying the season, during a campaign where Wake fans are probably just as desperate to win a title as the Illini. Roy Williams, when asked about his 1997 Kansas team and whether that team was successful, noted that they only lost two close games, one in overtime, had success in the classroom and sent several players to the NBA. Yes, I'd say that season was one of the greatest of all time. Somehow, in the minds of the media, a close loss in the Elite Eight makes one a loser.
Statistically, this is rubbish. Illinois fans need to know that as long as this team makes it to the Elite Eight, which I think they will, that this season has been fantastic. After that, there is too little to separate the top teams (barring early round upsets) to take the final results too seriously. Statisticians can chime in, but I believe the concepts of probability indicate that both luck and skill are necessary unless there is a huge talent gap. The 1976 Indiana team had 2 starters on the Olympic team. The 1973 UCLA team had Bill Walton and Keith Wilkes in the starting line-up. Both won fairly easily. Fast-forward to 1982. UNC had James Worthy, Sam Perkins and Michael Jordan on the same team and barely won, and almost lost in Charlotte against James Madison University. While there is no longer a hard stall in college ball, top teams must now contend with more talent spread more evenly, as well as the 3 point shot, which adds another level of variability.
Another issue is when do certain teams peak. UConn has an amazing amount of talent and athleticism on their club, maybe more than Kansas or UNC. Will they be ready? Probably not. Did the Illini peak too early? Maybe. Nevertheless, it is impossible at this point, to tell if Illinois is better than the rest of the top five. That is why many of us enjoy the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings so much, and which indicate that Illinois may be a hair better than another team that appears on ESPN more often than the Illini. Illini fans do seem a tad defensive if anyone questions whether some other team might be just as good or better.
Illinois is probably the coolest team this year, which is always a lot of fun to be, so Illini fans should relish that and really try to enjoy this amazing, efficient ballclub.
One final note, after re-analyzing the Wake-Illinois box score, I find it difficult to surmise how Wake could ever beat Illinois, even in a re-match in St. Louis. Blow-outs involving equal teams often involve a string of five or six 3-pointers, or massive turnovers, leading to one team becoming discouraged, sort of like the Villanova-Kansas game. That is not what appears to have happened in the Wake game. Both Illinois and Wake are excellent 3-point shooting teams and that part of the game was fairly equal. (10-24 for Wake, versus 11-26 for Ill.). Rebounds and turnovers were also essentially equal. Wake made five more free throws. Perhaps the key stat is that Illinois had nine more assists.
Match-ups often make games--like Frazier, Ali, Foreman, where A beats B and B beats C and C beats A. I don't know how Wake could change this result if they play the Illini again, even on a neutral court. Now as for Kansas or Carolina or Duke, who knows. I have not heard many Wake fans clamoring for a second shot at the Illini, the way UNC fans are itching to play Duke and Wake again after highly contested losses. Wake has a great shot at winning it all, but I think they are hoping that someone else can take out the Illini.
Regards,
William L.
Thanks, William!
DATELINE: the shallow end of the Gene Pool
Long-time alert reader Dave N., die-hard Michigan State fan that he is, made the trip to West Lafayette for Saturday's game against Purdue. He files this report on observing the twilight of a legend....
Wonk,
The Sparties controlled the whole way and, unlike last year's game, the final result was never in doubt. Purdue came out playing well on the defensive end, but unfortunately for them so did State (which Izzo said was the best tribute the team could pay to Keady--true, but I can hear Keady saying: thanks!).
Stationed, as I was, at the furthest point possible away from Gene Keady (and unable to ascertain a way down to floor level), I still do not know if he is actually bald or not. The scene that occurred when he got T'd up, though, gives some evidence that he really doesn't have any hair (or conversely has a pomade that doubles as super glue!). Upon learning he'd been assessed a technical he went into his usual semi-burlesque disrobe with half-twist.
At this point I fixed my eyes upon his GLORIOUS DOME and was not able to ascertain a single hair move; not even slightly! Wonder of wonders, Gene has been deceiving us all: perhaps his coiffure is really a tattoo, or perhaps something even more exotic!
Unfortunately I will not be able to find out until he begins his second career: male stripper. I mean come on, the deftness with which he removed that size 48 sport coat; the half-twist (on one leg mind you) is sure to drive the women wild. Gene, basketball's loss is every woman's gain and I support your new life.
Mackey was great--quaint and not a bad seat in the house. It really is too bad that Keady has to go out like this. Hopefully he can take one last game at home next Saturday.
Nuff said, take care.
Dave N.
Well done, Dave!
¶ 7:13 AM
Just 20 days to go until selection Sunday and, like a desperate threesome on the first tee, the Big Ten is still tapping its foot nervously and watching for a fourth team to join Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin as sure-thing's for tournament bids.
Don't get Wonk wrong: a fifth such team would be wonderful--as would a sixth and indeed (like the old days) a seventh. But your intrepid blogger, dedicated blogospheric servant that he is, deals in facts and the fact right now is that only three teams have secured bids. As a matter of appearances, a fourth would be nice.
And so your intrepid blogger has a suggestion for fans of the conference: come Thursday morning, root for the winner of Wednesday's Minnesota-Iowa game.
Now, let Wonk be plain: this blogger has nothing at all against, say, Indiana and, indeed, would be thrilled to pieces if all three of the above made the tournament. But....
1) As of this morning Indiana has an RPI (81) that makes on-lookers turn away in Edvard Munch-level horror--doubtless the selection committee will do the same (if they even get as far as looking). And their 7-5 record in conference is nice (as was their road win at Ann Arbor yesterday--see below) but keep in mind that to this point far they've played the big three of Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin a grand total of...twice. That's about to change as the Hoosiers host the Spartans and then journey to Madison in the next eight days. (Minnesota and Iowa, by teachable contrast, have each played four games against those three teams and are safely past that section of their schedules.)
2) At 67, Iowa's RPI is but 14 places higher than the Hoosiers'--less horrifying at first blush, granted, but still in the highly-questionable 60s. Not to mention the following NC-17 fact that's going tactfully unmentioned but that Wonk feels should be brought before the public in a responsible and mature fashion: as of this weekend Iowa is actually a game behind Northwestern in the Big Ten standings. So Wednesday's game between the Hawkeyes and the Gophers (RPI 54) is shaping up as a true Bubble Bowl: the loser will not make the tournament (unless they win the Big Ten tournament).
Here's how we got to this point....
Indiana beat Michigan 70-63 in Ann Arbor yesterday in a game that bids fair to win this blogger's 1997 Florida Marlins Commemorative Fluke Award. Stat-watchers such as Wonk don't wish to admit that such things exist but here, truly, was a game indicative of absolutely nothing, to wit: the Hoosiers shot .609 on their three's (not a typo--they were 14-of-23). Not bad for a team that entered the weekend as the worst team in the conference at shooting three's. (This single game lifted them to ninth.) And inside the arc Indiana was just 7-of-23 (.304). Errek Suhr (yes, Errek Suhr) entered the game with six career points. He was 3-of-4 on his threes. Marshall Strickland came in shooting .265 on his three's. He went 4-of-6 from behind the arc. Tommy Amaker wins this week's Bob Newhart Award for outstanding achievement in the field of understatement for this sum-up: "Indiana's ability to hit three-point shots was a key." "Amazing," Hoosier beat writer Terry Hutchens says of IU's sudden accuracy in this morning's Indianapolis Star. Hutchens' colleague at the Star, columnist Bob Kravitz, says this Indiana team is still alive: "Barely." At least until tomorrow night's game between the Hoosiers and Purdue, Michigan is all alone in tenth place in the conference, above only Penn State. "It's been a motivating factor every time we lose a game," said Wolverine big man Brent Petway after the game. By that metric, Michigan--having lost ten straight--is now one of the most highly motivated teams in the country.
Former Wolverine great Glen Rice was honored at halftime of yesterday's game and his jersey was retired. Michigan played having just learned that guard Daniel Horton's suspension will be carried through to the end of this season. Columnist Bob Wojnowski of the Detroit News cries foul: "I'm impressed by the way [Michigan] stood up for a principle. I'd be more impressed if they also stood up for the player, who had never been in trouble with the law."
Illinois beat Iowa 75-65 Saturday in Iowa City. This game's being compared to the one played between the same two teams in Champaign January 20. It shouldn't be. The Hawkeyes may "match up well" with the Illini and it certainly looked that way a month ago when Steve Alford's team limited the men in orange to .328 shooting from the field. Funny thing about Saturday's game, though: with the exceptions of rebounds and opponent FTA's (see below), Illinois pretty much had its normal numbers. Bruce Weber will take 10 turnovers and 75 points on .481 shooting on the road any day. So why was this contest so close (just a two-point game with four minutes left)?
1) Because Illinois, a slightly better rebounding team than Iowa, got absolutely hammered on the boards, 36-21. Watching this strange twist of fate occur, Wonk thought of the CSTV behind-the-scenes look at the Illini (due to be aired next month), in which Bruce Weber is seen going ballistic in practice and screaming: "Is it written somewhere that Illinois guards don't have to rebound?" Nor do the non-James-Augustine Illini bigs escape blame: Augustine had eight boards; no one else in orange had more than three. Roger Powell has an excuse: he played just 11 minutes. But Jack Ingram, Nick Smith, and Warren Carter (given minutes due to Rich McBride's flu-like symptoms) between them totaled 37 minutes and only four boards. Unconscionable.
2) Iowa shot 26 free throws. Which doesn't sound like all that many (and indeed Illinois shot 23) until you remember that the Hawkeyes attempted only 43 field goals (even with all those rebounds) in a game with 140 total points. If they hadn't given the visitors 21 turnovers, Iowa was on course to shoot an honest 30-plus FTA's. (By "honest" Wonk means uninflated by late hacking by an opponent trying to come from behind.) And, make no mistake, they need those trips to the line. Wonk suddenly understands Alford's owlish fascination with FTA's and his ritual complaints after road losses about his team not getting enough of them. But your intrepid blogger worries about the effect this stratagem is having on the Hawkeyes: they play very much like a team looking to outside forces (e.g., refs) to help them out--instead of like a team (e.g., Illinois) looking to get the damn W no matter what.
BONUS puzzling over Haluska. Wonk has already been known to wonder aloud about Adam Haluska's strange lack of court sense. Well, your intrepid blogger herewith wonders again. I am told the guy is an Iowa high-school hoops (and track) legend but at times he looks for all the world like some Belgian prodigy who was just introduced to the game two years ago. The latest example being his two very odd fouls on Dee Brown on breakaways. These Basketball 101 lapses were more aesthetically jarring than truly harmful (together the two miscues cost the Hawkeyes one point) but, still, in what Iowa was hoping was going to be a close game they were very prominent indeed.
Steve Alford does Wonk's job! Check it out: "We threw about everything we had at them. We made more free throws than they did and we outrebounded them by 15, but they still beat us by 10. They just don’t seem to feel any pressure.” So how'd the Illini do it, Coach? "One team turned it over 11 more times. You can't give the No. 1 team 11 more times to score; that's too much for our team to overcome." Briskly done, Steve! That about sums it up. Columnist Pat Harty of the Iowa City Press-Citizen, conversely, does not share Wonk's high opinion of Alford's skills at summation. "Just when you think [Alford] has said the wrong things at the wrong time for the last time," Harty writes, "he does it again." Specifically, Harty thinks Alford is deflecting blame when he utters the following observation: "Good teams, good players, they find a way to make plays, and we've got to learn those things." Meanwhile Harty's colleague at the Press-Citizen, Hawkeye beat writer Susan Harman, says Illinois "met every challenge with poise born of experience, talent and confidence."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Saturday's game included what for him will be remembered as the play of the year for these Illini: with three minutes to play in the game, Luther Head deflected a Hawkeye inbound pass and then saved it from going out of bounds by flipping it back over his head. From there Augustine outjumped two Iowa players to tap it to Deron Williams. Williams bumped it ahead to Brown. Brown made the fast-break layup and was fouled by Haluska. Not a bad choice by Tupper....The indefatigable Tupper doesn't just blog, he writes a column! In yesterday's piece, Tupper talks about Nick Smith: inappropriately loquacious with his laments of too little playing time earlier in the week, needlessly silent in heroic victory Saturday afternoon. Alas. (More coverage of the strong silent Smith here and here.)
Chicago Tribune columnist Mike Downey says this game "was a little more exciting than the Exciting Illini would have liked it to be. It was one of their poorest performances and one of their tightest games from beginning to end." "Credit Dee Brown, who's hot," says Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times, "and Nick Smith, who has been feeling left out in the cold, for making the big plays down the stretch." Steve Alford says the Hawkeyes have been able to hang with the Illini and their "war-tested" backcourt twice this season largely because they've contained Roger Powell....Deron Williams admits he, too, has been surprised by this team. "At the start of the year, I don't think there was any way to think we'd be undefeated at this point."...Bill Liesse of the Peoria Journal Star says he knows Illini-mania is reaching truly Beatles-in-'64 proportions because "half the autograph seekers in Saturday's postgame wore gold and black." Liesse also says the adulation is deserved because the Illinois guards are without equal: "Be honest, now. Can anyone picture any of Illinois' guards panicking like UNC's Ray Felton did on the last possession at Duke?"
Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti still thinks it would be best for Illinois to lose a game before the big dance. This time he advances the theory that the media coverage of an undefeated team (including scrutiny of its less sunny aspects--see next paragraph) will quickly intensify to the point where it could engulf the heretofore happy Illini.
David Haugh of the Chicago Tribune takes another look at the November 2003 "incident" in which Luther Head allegedly participated in a break-in at an off-campus apartment. "The contrast," Haugh notes, "between the way Illinois coach Bruce Weber handled the incident—he suspended Head and two teammates for four games but welcomed them back to the team—and the disposition of criminal cases involving other Big Ten basketball players is still bothersome to some people."
WANTED: An Iowa media guru, to explain to Wonk how in the world the Des Moines Register could have only this wire story on its website as late as mid-day Sunday when the number 1 team in the nation has played a road game against the state's flagship university. (Since then, the Register has at last posted this write up from its beat writer--but why the delay?)
The last time your intrepid blogger noted such a coverage anomaly in our Big Ten hoops world, it had taken place in the byzantine world of Detroit media and the explanation (befuddling to the not-very-bright Wonk yet transparently obvious to many alert readers who chimed in with an avalanche of emails) involved something about overlapping newspaper ownerships, joint operating agreements, the Bretton Woods Agreement, and the Sapir-Whorf Hypothesis.
I'm sure something equally odd yet locally understood is at work in this instance. But what is that exactly? Clue me in!
BONUS note about the showers. Just about every story on this game mentions the fact that the Illini had no hot water at their Iowa City hotel Saturday morning. Wonk demands a full investigation!
Three years ago your intrepid blogger lived in Sacramento when the Lakers came to town for the Western Conference Finals and Kobe Bryant was seriously slowed for game 2 because of a bad cheeseburger he ordered from room service at a downtown Sacramento hotel. The subsequent coverage and investigation of this episode was perhaps equaled in modern times only by the Starr Report. Wonk confidently awaits the similarly-sized onslaught of second-wave stories here.
Minnesota beat Ohio State 52-50 in Minneapolis Saturday. The Buckeyes shot just .358 from the field, were outrebounded by 13, and attempted (per usual for Thad Matta's team) only eight free throws. Yet they only lost by two. For their part the Gophers recorded a notable eight blocks. Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan says the Gophers are OK with winning ugly, which is why Jeff Hagen "is their perfect poster player." Souhan's colleague at the Star Tribune, Jeff Shelman, says "when a game is seemingly played in mud, the Gophers probably are going to win."
Michigan State beat Purdue 68-57 in West Lafayette Saturday. Carl Landry was hobbled by an injured knee suffered in practice the day before and was limited to just seven points, a season-low. Gene Keady termed his team's performance "embarrassing." "We lacked making that one big play," said Purdue guard David Teague. The home loss ensures that the Boilers will post their first losing season at home in the history of the 38-year-old Mackey Arena. (The game served as a reunion for many former Boilers who returned to Mackey to honor Keady. No-shows included Glenn Robinson and Brian Cardinal.) Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says for Matt Painter to turn things around in West Lafayette, he needs to start keeping the in-state talent in-state....Indefatigable Detroit News Spartan beat writer Dave Dye points out that State's won five games on the road in conference by an average of over 15 points. Chris Hill says quieting a crowd on the road is as good as it gets: "That's one of the best feelings. To be on the road and be able to hear silence." Drew Neitzel scored a career-high 10 points and self-assesses: "I'm playing my best ball."
Northwestern beat Penn State 54-39 Saturday in Evanston, the latest in a series of archetypal Welsh-Ryan Arena scores. In what turned out to be a futile attempt to shake things up, PSU coach Ed DeChellis shuffled his lineup and gave first-ever starts to who-dat's Kevin Fellows and Jason McDougald. The Wildcats can still qualify for the NIT if they win two of their final four games.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline weighs in on this fourth-bid stuff that's got Wonk so intrigued and says: Iowa's done but Minnesota is still alive.
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says he wants Dee Brown to cut down on the fouls....Skip Myslenski of the Chicago Tribune looks at "other contenders" for the national championship here. (No, Wonk doesn't understand the list, either. At first I thought it was comprised of teams that could end up in the same regional as the Illini but then I saw Michigan State. Maybe the print edition explains the rationale behind this odd piece?)...Illinois says it's taking its next three opponents seriously, etc., etc....The Illini are rewriting the record book, etc., etc.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The alert readers are all "discoursey for DeCourcy"!
Wonk received many, many interesting emails in response to Friday's interview of Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News. Your intrepid blogger will try to work as many of them in this week as practicable. Here's a taste....
Wonk,
Great interview. Great blog.
I think the point by DeCourcy about UNLV '91 was right on the mark. Skip Prosser made a point earlier this year about enjoying the season, during a campaign where Wake fans are probably just as desperate to win a title as the Illini. Roy Williams, when asked about his 1997 Kansas team and whether that team was successful, noted that they only lost two close games, one in overtime, had success in the classroom and sent several players to the NBA. Yes, I'd say that season was one of the greatest of all time. Somehow, in the minds of the media, a close loss in the Elite Eight makes one a loser.
Statistically, this is rubbish. Illinois fans need to know that as long as this team makes it to the Elite Eight, which I think they will, that this season has been fantastic. After that, there is too little to separate the top teams (barring early round upsets) to take the final results too seriously. Statisticians can chime in, but I believe the concepts of probability indicate that both luck and skill are necessary unless there is a huge talent gap. The 1976 Indiana team had 2 starters on the Olympic team. The 1973 UCLA team had Bill Walton and Keith Wilkes in the starting line-up. Both won fairly easily. Fast-forward to 1982. UNC had James Worthy, Sam Perkins and Michael Jordan on the same team and barely won, and almost lost in Charlotte against James Madison University. While there is no longer a hard stall in college ball, top teams must now contend with more talent spread more evenly, as well as the 3 point shot, which adds another level of variability.
Another issue is when do certain teams peak. UConn has an amazing amount of talent and athleticism on their club, maybe more than Kansas or UNC. Will they be ready? Probably not. Did the Illini peak too early? Maybe. Nevertheless, it is impossible at this point, to tell if Illinois is better than the rest of the top five. That is why many of us enjoy the Sagarin and Pomeroy ratings so much, and which indicate that Illinois may be a hair better than another team that appears on ESPN more often than the Illini. Illini fans do seem a tad defensive if anyone questions whether some other team might be just as good or better.
Illinois is probably the coolest team this year, which is always a lot of fun to be, so Illini fans should relish that and really try to enjoy this amazing, efficient ballclub.
One final note, after re-analyzing the Wake-Illinois box score, I find it difficult to surmise how Wake could ever beat Illinois, even in a re-match in St. Louis. Blow-outs involving equal teams often involve a string of five or six 3-pointers, or massive turnovers, leading to one team becoming discouraged, sort of like the Villanova-Kansas game. That is not what appears to have happened in the Wake game. Both Illinois and Wake are excellent 3-point shooting teams and that part of the game was fairly equal. (10-24 for Wake, versus 11-26 for Ill.). Rebounds and turnovers were also essentially equal. Wake made five more free throws. Perhaps the key stat is that Illinois had nine more assists.
Match-ups often make games--like Frazier, Ali, Foreman, where A beats B and B beats C and C beats A. I don't know how Wake could change this result if they play the Illini again, even on a neutral court. Now as for Kansas or Carolina or Duke, who knows. I have not heard many Wake fans clamoring for a second shot at the Illini, the way UNC fans are itching to play Duke and Wake again after highly contested losses. Wake has a great shot at winning it all, but I think they are hoping that someone else can take out the Illini.
Regards,
William L.
Thanks, William!
DATELINE: the shallow end of the Gene Pool
Long-time alert reader Dave N., die-hard Michigan State fan that he is, made the trip to West Lafayette for Saturday's game against Purdue. He files this report on observing the twilight of a legend....
Wonk,
The Sparties controlled the whole way and, unlike last year's game, the final result was never in doubt. Purdue came out playing well on the defensive end, but unfortunately for them so did State (which Izzo said was the best tribute the team could pay to Keady--true, but I can hear Keady saying: thanks!).
Stationed, as I was, at the furthest point possible away from Gene Keady (and unable to ascertain a way down to floor level), I still do not know if he is actually bald or not. The scene that occurred when he got T'd up, though, gives some evidence that he really doesn't have any hair (or conversely has a pomade that doubles as super glue!). Upon learning he'd been assessed a technical he went into his usual semi-burlesque disrobe with half-twist.
At this point I fixed my eyes upon his GLORIOUS DOME and was not able to ascertain a single hair move; not even slightly! Wonder of wonders, Gene has been deceiving us all: perhaps his coiffure is really a tattoo, or perhaps something even more exotic!
Unfortunately I will not be able to find out until he begins his second career: male stripper. I mean come on, the deftness with which he removed that size 48 sport coat; the half-twist (on one leg mind you) is sure to drive the women wild. Gene, basketball's loss is every woman's gain and I support your new life.
Mackey was great--quaint and not a bad seat in the house. It really is too bad that Keady has to go out like this. Hopefully he can take one last game at home next Saturday.
Nuff said, take care.
Dave N.
Well done, Dave!
¶ 7:13 AM
Saturday, February 19, 2005
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa hosts Illinois today (this morning, Central Time) in Iowa City. Steve Alford made some pointed comments Wednesday night after his team lost at Purdue ("If you don't have a talkative leader on the floor, especially the last five or six minutes, it's tough to win") but he now denies his remarks were directed at Jeff Horner: "I never mentioned Jeff, the media mentioned Jeff." Got that? (Or is that not what Woodward and Bernstein would have termed a non-denial denial?) Now....Susan Harman of the Iowa City Press-Citizen briskly itemizes the on-court post-Pierce fallout: "Horner is playing the off guard as well as the point in order for Henderson to play a comfortable position. While Iowa clearly is a better team with Horner at the point, Reed has been inconsistent at the off guard, and Henderson isn't equipped to play there. The domino effect has weakened Iowa at a couple positions." And yet, even without Pierce, the Hawkeyes have played close games against Michigan State (home) and Wisconsin (road). Marlen Garcia of the Chicago Tribune says that without Pierce, "the Hawkeyes clearly are lost in clutch moments down the stretch." Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times looks at Iowa's recent history of losing records in-conference and notes that Alford "never seems to be playing with a full deck when the most important part of the college basketball season rolls around," a phrase open to differing interpretations. For his part, Hawkeye big man Greg Brunner says the season's not over yet. "My teammates are getting sick of hearing me say it, but I'm tired of going to the NIT. We're a different team than we were a couple of weeks ago, but we're still stocked with enough talent to get to the NCAAs. I'm working to make that happen."
Bruce Weber says his team will be ready. "I think them playing us close the first time helps. We had a tough game with them. I know my guys respect them." Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper forecasts that Weber today will make use of this classic Weberian reminder: "The people that we don't fear can beat us." (Same link: Weber notes he doesn't play his starting five as a unit in practice, preferring instead to have them face each other whenever possible, on the theory that the tougher competition will improve their performance.)
BONUS blog-watch note: Don't miss the outstanding game preview at Hawkeye Hoops. That's right! Ryan's back! After more than a week of silence, the site that's been defining state-of-the-art in team blogs since 2004 is back on-line--and we, the readers, are the winners!
In Ryan's sudden absence, Wonk had imagined all kinds of dramatic scenarios to explain his site's inactivity. Maybe, Wonk thought, Ryan is bravely protesting this or that in the tumultuous Hawkeye world. That would have been cool. Wonk even had some verbiage in mind that he could contribute to an all-blog-star celebrity tribute to Ryan (snippets from A Shropshire Lad, etc.--strictly class material, folks).
Turns out he was having internet trouble.
In any event: welcome back, Ryan! The blogosphere sorely missed your coolly precise almost Pomeroy-esque analyses.
Pierce update. Former Iowa guard Pierre Pierce, dismissed from the team by Steve Alford on February 2, now faces four charges instead of six--but three of those four are now felonies. The charges stem from an alleged altercation between Pierce and his ex-girlfriend on January 27. His arraignment is scheduled for March 4.
Purdue hosts Michigan State today in West Lafayette and the day's festivities will include a tribute to Gene Keady, attended by scores of former Boilermaker players and managers. As for the little matter of the game itself, Carl Landry is talking big. "I know we can beat them," Landry says of the Spartans. (Tom Izzo says Landry reminds him of Zach Randolph.) The Boilers played a 1-2-2 zone in the second half of their comeback win against Iowa Wednesday night--that look on D, once anathema to Keady, may reappear today. Columnist Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press says the oft-critiqued but nevertheless 18-4 Spartans are learning the price of success: "MSU basketball, like Michigan football, is discovering a sad truth about our sports climate: Win, and we expect you to keep winning. Win them all, and we expect you to do it again." BONUS odd stat: Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal points out that Michigan State's defense has been better on the road of late than at home.
Minnesota hosts Ohio State today in Minneapolis. Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says that for the Gophers, "it all comes down to this: Win the final four regular-season games and they'll likely reach the NCAA tournament. Win fewer than four and their hopes probably hinge on the outcome of the Big Ten tournament." Exactly....Ohio State will be playing without Matt Sylvester, suspended for one game after he reportedly spit on a fan while leaving the court in the Breslin Center in the wake of the Buckeyes' loss last week at Michigan State.
Northwestern hosts Penn State today in Evanston. (Link here.)
Still no word on whether or not suspended Michigan guard Daniel Horton will be reinstated to play in tomorrow's game against Indiana.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Iconic, yes. Innovative?
Yesterday Wonk noted the pose adopted for the cameras by Louisville's Francisco Garcia Thursday night after he'd hit the game-winning three to defeat Marquette. In victory Garcia stretched out his jersey to display the "Louisville" on his uniform for the convenience of the fans. (See Garcia's pose here.) Strikingly similar, your intrepid blogger noted, to the pose famously adopted by Dee Brown (link here) after draining some big three's on the road against Purdue earlier this season.
Turns out Brown may not have invented the pose after all. Your intrepid blogger has received an update from alert reader David G., who sends "a pretty good pic of Keith Bogans & Gerald Fitch showing the 'Rowdy Reptiles' their jerseys a couple of years ago following a Kentucky win over Florida in Gainesville."
Link here to see the picture sent by David. Note how Bogans in particular appears to be mouthing a key consonant with gusto. Wonk trusts Bogans was telling the Gator faithful what FINE FANS they are.
Thanks, David!
¶ 8:14 AM
Iowa hosts Illinois today (this morning, Central Time) in Iowa City. Steve Alford made some pointed comments Wednesday night after his team lost at Purdue ("If you don't have a talkative leader on the floor, especially the last five or six minutes, it's tough to win") but he now denies his remarks were directed at Jeff Horner: "I never mentioned Jeff, the media mentioned Jeff." Got that? (Or is that not what Woodward and Bernstein would have termed a non-denial denial?) Now....Susan Harman of the Iowa City Press-Citizen briskly itemizes the on-court post-Pierce fallout: "Horner is playing the off guard as well as the point in order for Henderson to play a comfortable position. While Iowa clearly is a better team with Horner at the point, Reed has been inconsistent at the off guard, and Henderson isn't equipped to play there. The domino effect has weakened Iowa at a couple positions." And yet, even without Pierce, the Hawkeyes have played close games against Michigan State (home) and Wisconsin (road). Marlen Garcia of the Chicago Tribune says that without Pierce, "the Hawkeyes clearly are lost in clutch moments down the stretch." Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times looks at Iowa's recent history of losing records in-conference and notes that Alford "never seems to be playing with a full deck when the most important part of the college basketball season rolls around," a phrase open to differing interpretations. For his part, Hawkeye big man Greg Brunner says the season's not over yet. "My teammates are getting sick of hearing me say it, but I'm tired of going to the NIT. We're a different team than we were a couple of weeks ago, but we're still stocked with enough talent to get to the NCAAs. I'm working to make that happen."
Bruce Weber says his team will be ready. "I think them playing us close the first time helps. We had a tough game with them. I know my guys respect them." Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper forecasts that Weber today will make use of this classic Weberian reminder: "The people that we don't fear can beat us." (Same link: Weber notes he doesn't play his starting five as a unit in practice, preferring instead to have them face each other whenever possible, on the theory that the tougher competition will improve their performance.)
BONUS blog-watch note: Don't miss the outstanding game preview at Hawkeye Hoops. That's right! Ryan's back! After more than a week of silence, the site that's been defining state-of-the-art in team blogs since 2004 is back on-line--and we, the readers, are the winners!
In Ryan's sudden absence, Wonk had imagined all kinds of dramatic scenarios to explain his site's inactivity. Maybe, Wonk thought, Ryan is bravely protesting this or that in the tumultuous Hawkeye world. That would have been cool. Wonk even had some verbiage in mind that he could contribute to an all-blog-star celebrity tribute to Ryan (snippets from A Shropshire Lad, etc.--strictly class material, folks).
Turns out he was having internet trouble.
In any event: welcome back, Ryan! The blogosphere sorely missed your coolly precise almost Pomeroy-esque analyses.
Pierce update. Former Iowa guard Pierre Pierce, dismissed from the team by Steve Alford on February 2, now faces four charges instead of six--but three of those four are now felonies. The charges stem from an alleged altercation between Pierce and his ex-girlfriend on January 27. His arraignment is scheduled for March 4.
Purdue hosts Michigan State today in West Lafayette and the day's festivities will include a tribute to Gene Keady, attended by scores of former Boilermaker players and managers. As for the little matter of the game itself, Carl Landry is talking big. "I know we can beat them," Landry says of the Spartans. (Tom Izzo says Landry reminds him of Zach Randolph.) The Boilers played a 1-2-2 zone in the second half of their comeback win against Iowa Wednesday night--that look on D, once anathema to Keady, may reappear today. Columnist Michael Rosenberg of the Detroit Free Press says the oft-critiqued but nevertheless 18-4 Spartans are learning the price of success: "MSU basketball, like Michigan football, is discovering a sad truth about our sports climate: Win, and we expect you to keep winning. Win them all, and we expect you to do it again." BONUS odd stat: Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal points out that Michigan State's defense has been better on the road of late than at home.
Minnesota hosts Ohio State today in Minneapolis. Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says that for the Gophers, "it all comes down to this: Win the final four regular-season games and they'll likely reach the NCAA tournament. Win fewer than four and their hopes probably hinge on the outcome of the Big Ten tournament." Exactly....Ohio State will be playing without Matt Sylvester, suspended for one game after he reportedly spit on a fan while leaving the court in the Breslin Center in the wake of the Buckeyes' loss last week at Michigan State.
Northwestern hosts Penn State today in Evanston. (Link here.)
Still no word on whether or not suspended Michigan guard Daniel Horton will be reinstated to play in tomorrow's game against Indiana.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Iconic, yes. Innovative?
Yesterday Wonk noted the pose adopted for the cameras by Louisville's Francisco Garcia Thursday night after he'd hit the game-winning three to defeat Marquette. In victory Garcia stretched out his jersey to display the "Louisville" on his uniform for the convenience of the fans. (See Garcia's pose here.) Strikingly similar, your intrepid blogger noted, to the pose famously adopted by Dee Brown (link here) after draining some big three's on the road against Purdue earlier this season.
Turns out Brown may not have invented the pose after all. Your intrepid blogger has received an update from alert reader David G., who sends "a pretty good pic of Keith Bogans & Gerald Fitch showing the 'Rowdy Reptiles' their jerseys a couple of years ago following a Kentucky win over Florida in Gainesville."
Link here to see the picture sent by David. Note how Bogans in particular appears to be mouthing a key consonant with gusto. Wonk trusts Bogans was telling the Gator faithful what FINE FANS they are.
Thanks, David!
¶ 8:14 AM
Friday, February 18, 2005
A talk with Mike DeCourcy
Mike DeCourcy covers college basketball as a Senior Writer for The Sporting News. Before joining TSN, he wrote on college hoops at the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Memphis Commercial Appeal, and the Pittsburgh Press. And he’s covered 13 Final Fours. Mike talked to Wonk about the college game in general and about the Big Ten in particular: its past, its future, its teams, and the prospects of those teams in March and beyond.
Q. Mike, I actually want to start off with a question wholly unrelated to the Big Ten. Arizona coach Lute Olson is alleging “east coast media bias” because he keeps hearing about what a great pure shooter Duke’s J.J. Redick supposedly is. My own diligent research tells me Redick’s shooting about 42 percent on his three’s. On the other hand, Olson has a player, Salim Stoudamire, who’s shooting almost 55 percent from beyond the arc. Now, you’re kind of neither east nor west so I doubt Olson had you in mind specifically….
A. Hey, I get accused of east coast bias even though I live in Ohio.
Q. Really? So how do you plead? Is there an east coast bias? Why don’t we hear more about someone hitting almost 55 percent on their three’s?
A. Here’s the thing: Where does Lute Olson hear about J.J. Redick? He hears about him on ESPN. Well, once upon a time, the Pac-10 decided they wanted more money and so they went exclusive with Fox. That means Pac-10 games aren’t on ESPN. And so ESPN doesn’t talk about Stoudamire. That’s the end of the story. The rest of it is all nonsense.
If the Pac-10 were on ESPN, then Dick Vitale would point his jet out to Arizona and he’d cover the Wildcats and there would be no controversy. If the Pac-10 wants to be covered more by ESPN then they probably should have stayed in business with them. Now, Fox does very well by the Pac-10. But it does mean you don’t have Vitale screaming about how great Stoudamire is.
Q. The other day Illinois beat Wisconsin in a game some observers were, apparently, already terming “ugly” by the time postgame interviews were happening. Dee Brown responded by saying, in effect: hey, we play defense in this conference. You see a lot more non-Big-Ten games than I do. Any defense happening out there I should tell Dee about?
A. Every league plays differently because it comes down to the way the officials allow the game to be played. The ACC has always been a much more free-flowing league than just about any other league and, frankly, it’s served them well because that style of play attracts players who can score. And those are the players, basically, that win NCAA championships. Any coach who tells you that defense wins championships probably coaches football.
Q. What about Michigan State in 2000?
A. Oh, you can play great defense and win the national championship. It helps. But you also have to be able to score. Sure, the Spartans only had something like 50 points in the semifinal against Wisconsin that year but then they scored 80-some points in that title game against Florida. Most of the time in the Final Four there are a lot of points being scored. Same with getting there: when Marquette made the Final Four in 2003 they did so not because Dwyane Wade was playing great defense but because he was dunking on everybody.
Q. So the answer to my original question is: no, there’s no defense being played outside the Big Ten.
A. Conference USA plays some great defense but they do it because they have to. Teams like Cincinnati and Charlotte have to play great D to stay with the big boys. The Big 12 plays pretty good defense, obviously, when you have a league with coaches like Bob Knight, Eddie Sutton, Kelvin Sampson, Bill Self, and Rick Barnes. You’re going to have to guard to get out of that league. But all of those teams are only going to go as far in the tournament as their offenses can take them.
Q. Let’s talk about some Big Ten teams, specifically their post-season prospects. How do you see the next few weeks playing out for Wisconsin?
A. It’s hard for me to know what to expect from them because they do a lot of things really well. And the player they have at point guard, Sharif Chambliss, makes big shots but he’s not a true point guard. So their offense is in danger of getting bogged down and that, obviously, can be a concern in the tournament depending on who they get matched up against. The best thing that could happen for the Badgers to advance deep into the tournament would be for them to play against other teams with offenses as problematic as their own.
And “problematic” may be the wrong word. There are times when Wisconsin scores because they get their stuff going and teams don’t know how to guard their sets. The more teams they can play that they can beat with defense and squeeze by with offense the further they can go. Really, so much of this just comes down to who you play.
Q. Alando Tucker seems healthier than he’s been in a while.
A. Tucker is a very difficult player to guard when he’s healthy. And I’ll be honest with you, I’m not 100 percent sure that he’s 100 percent healthy.
Q. I know what you mean. Watching Tucker right now is kind of like watching football being played in the rain or snow: the advantage is with the offense. As long as he’s on offense where he knows where he’s going, he looks good. On defense he’s a little more tentative.
A. Not to mention when he’s at his best he’s going to get fouled a lot and go to the line many times each game. When that happens you’ll know he’s himself again. But in the meantime he’s become a better shooter. So the fact that maybe he doesn’t have quite the explosion that he has when he’s healthy hasn’t been as limiting. He could get that explosiveness back by the end of the year—at that point he’ll be a better player than he’s ever been because he is a better shooter now.
Q. OK, next team, next postseason prognosis: Michigan State.
A. I saw them at their near-worst when they lost to Illinois. You can get a bad impression of a team from something like that and it can fool you. They weren’t tough, they weren’t competitive, and they were playing at home. And it was unsettling to watch them get pushed around by a team that doesn’t push teams around. I mean, Illinois thrashes teams but they don’t do it physically. And in that game I thought the Spartans cowered a bit.
From a standpoint of skill and scoring ability, Michigan State’s really strong. And they guard because they play for a coach who’s one of the best defensive coaches.
The move to Drew Neitzel seems to have put a little spark in them. It’s allowed Chris Hill to be more comfortable, even though he’s coming off the bench—he’s making shots again. I remember at the beginning of the year I thought: it’s not going to work if they don’t go to Neitzel. And then once they got down the road as far as they did I thought, well, they can’t change now. But it appears they’ve been able to do just that. And that gives them some promise.
As for Paul Davis, I can’t explain him to you any more than I can explain quantum physics. I know he’s really talented. I know he can do a lot of good things. I don’t know when he’ll do them.
Q. The Spartans really took a lot of heat from some of the media in Michigan after the Wisconsin game. And it seems like this team’s often being criticized for its record against ranked opponents. Is that fair? Is it accurate?
A. To be honest with you, anyone who talks about a team’s record against ranked opponents is showing a limited knowledge of the game. Because the rankings are nonsense. They’re mumbo-jumbo garbage.
Now, if you want to tell me you don’t think Michigan State is any good because their record against RPI top-25 teams is 0-3, OK, I’ll listen to you. But then I’ll tell you: yeah, but they’re 3-3 against the top-50, that’s not so bad. Not great but not bad. And it also tells you something about the nature of what the Spartans are up against in that debate. Which is: there just aren’t a lot of opportunities for them to play that type of game because the Big Ten hasn’t been very good.
In a league like the ACC you’re going to get four or five ranked teams a year on your floor. Michigan State’s had one. And they didn’t get it done.
Q. They’re about to get their second one, Wisconsin.
A. But that hasn’t happened yet. And so the debate is framed the way it is. Again, look at the RPI top-50. Michigan State’s played six top-50 opponents. That’s not a lot. I can go to Carolina, they’ve played ten. Look at Washington, in a conference that’s not widely feared this year. They’ve played eight. Duke’s played nine. Boston College—people talk about their schedule being weak; well, they’ve played seven. So to get back to this silly business about the Spartans and their record against ranked teams, they just haven’t had the opportunities that would allow you to break a streak like that.
Q. Speaking of a lack of RPI top-50 opponents in the Big Ten, recently there’ve been some suggestions that this could hurt Illinois and their chances in the tournament. Some observers have said that to prepare for the tournament the Illini need better competition than what the conference has provided this year.
A. That’s a fantasy. Look at Gonzaga. In ’99 they went to the Elite Eight and had eventual national champion Connecticut down to its last gasp and scared to death. Who’d they play that year in the WCC?
So who Illinois has or hasn’t played in the last couple weeks is totally irrelevant to who they are and what they’ve accomplished. Look at the record. They had Gonzaga down by 30-some and beat them by 20. Same with Wake Forest. They beat Cincinnati by 20. They beat Michigan State by double-figures. And, except for Wake Forest, none of those were on the Illini’s home floor.
Q. Every time I turn on ESPN it seems like someone’s holding forth on Illinois and their chances in the tournament. What’s your take?
A. They’re the best team in the country but not necessarily from a talent standpoint. So on that basis their prospects for winning the national championship would appear to be less promising than UNLV’s were in 1991, or than Kansas’ were in 1997, or than Duke’s were in 1999. Now, what do all those teams have in common?
Q. They all lost.
A. Exactly.
Q. Not to mention the 2004 L.A. Lakers.
A. Right. So Illinois goes into the tournament with the best team and therefore the best chance of winning it all. But it’s still really hard to do.
Q. Who’s right there with the Illini? Who’s their toughest competition?
A. You know, these next three weeks are much more telling than people give them credit for. Everybody wants to start their projections now but then everything’s going to turn over in the next three weeks. That being said, I think Kansas, Wake Forest, Carolina, Boston College, Oklahoma State—those teams are all really good. I’ll know better in three weeks. And I’ll know best when I see the bracket. But right now I think all those teams have a very good shot at winning the national championship. They all have specific limitations, as Illinois does. And the best way to win a national championship is not to play any of the teams that can take advantage of what you don’t do well.
Q. Is Illinois really as susceptible on the inside as everyone seems to think?
A. Yes, if you can get it inside consistently. But that’s the trick. Can you get it there consistently? Wake Forest brought three great guards into Assembly Hall and couldn’t get the ball inside. If they played on a neutral floor would that change? Maybe. But no matter where Illinois and Wake Forest play, if they play again, it’s not going to be neutral. It may not be the nightmare that Assembly Hall was back on December 1 but it’s not going to be neutral. It’s going to be someplace like Chicago (if Wake doesn’t hold on to a 1-seed) or St. Louis. And that’s part of Illinois’ advantage in this tournament.
Q. Did you know Luther Head would have this kind of year?
A. No. If you’d asked me about Head before the season I probably would have said he’s a two-trick pony: someone who can dunk lobs and make an occasional three.
But his development as a passer and ball handler has been staggering. Almost unprecedented. I don’t remember the last time a player went from dunking alley-oops to being a point-guard-quality player.
I tell you what: if you put Luther Head on Cincinnati and gave him the ball, the Bearcats would instantly become a top-10 team. He is that good of a point guard. And he’s the third-best point guard on his team.
Q. So is this “staggering” change a testament to Head and his commitment to improve or to Bruce Weber and his ability to develop players?
A. Well, I’ll tell you this. It’s a testament to Luther that after he had his off-court problems last year he committed himself to righting his game and righting his life.
But I’ll add this as well. I was at an Illinois practice the other day and they are much heavier on skill development than a lot of other programs. They are paying much more attention to making those guys better basketball players than a lot of other programs do.
Q. The other day in the blog I likened Iowa to one of those people who has an accident on the same day of the year every year.
A. (Laughs). That’s good.
Q. Every year—or at least in years when they have a full roster—it seems like they have a nice non-conference record but then they get to the Big Ten and just can’t get it done. Is Steve Alford just the world’s unluckiest man or is something more systemic at work there?
A. If you look at some of the problems they’ve had—academic problems, behavioral issues—I think a lot of that can come from the choices you make when you’re recruiting. Part of it has to be how you’re administering your program. And maybe those are just small parts and the larger part is bad luck or whatever. But when similar things keep happening to you, you have to wonder how well you’re connecting to the players.
Now, every now and then you get a case like this at any school. Every school has problems. But when the occurrence of this sort of thing is consistent, either you’ve decided that you’re going to play the fringes (where you take chances with at-risk kids and try to do a really good job with them) or you’re just not noticing that you’re taking at-risk kids and/or not doing a good job with them.
Honestly, I don’t know which of those is at work at Iowa. But it just seems like a program like that—a state university with state university cache—should probably have fewer problems than they’ve had.
Q. True/false: the future’s bright at Indiana.
A. If the future is Mike Davis sticking around another year then I think there’s a good chance that the answer is “true.” Because they’ve got really good players that are young and that will get better. And next year they won’t schedule as if they’ve completely lost their minds. The schedule that was put together for this particular team this year….I think the best adjective I can come up with is “inexcusable.”
So I think if Mike is there they will make significant progress next year. If Mike is not there and they make the wrong hire, then the future is not bright because some of the players might leave. But, then again, if Mike’s not there and they hire a brilliant coach who convinces the players to stay, then I guess the future could be bright that way, too. So it could go in any direction.
Q. Last question: among head coaches, who’s your favorite interview--or who’s the most quotable?
A. A lot of writers want to be around a funny guy but I’m not real big on that. For instance, there’s nobody funnier than Rick Barnes. And, don’t get me wrong, I love Rick Barnes. I’ll spend the rest of my life as his next-door neighbor and he’ll keep me entertained forever. But I don’t judge a coach on whether or not he entertains me.
I tell you, I really enjoy Bruce Weber. He opens his soul in ways that are very interesting for a guy who’s got a really large pack of writers following his team. He’s very open about the team. He gives you a lot of insight. I think he’s an interesting interview at this point. A guy who’s coaching the top-ranked team could very easily shut the doors and close his mouth but he’s handling the whole number-1 thing pretty well.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
A faculty committee at Iowa has recommended tougher procedures for dealing with Hawkeye athletes who engage in criminal behavior. The proposed policy, ironically, was apparently drafted in response to Pierre Pierce's legal troubles two years ago but has only been brought forward in light of Pierce's more recent brush with the law. (For you Court TV-esque watchers of the Pierre Pierce case: the text of Pierce's blogospherically much discussed email to his ex-girlfriend, sent a few hours after he had allegedly assaulted her and inflicted significant damage to her home, is here.)...Tomorrow's game against Illinois is sold out but that's been the exception and not the rule: attendance at Iowa home games is poised to dip for the fourth consecutive year. The Hawkeyes are averaging about 11,700 fans per game in a venue with a capacity of 15,500. Revenue may be $100,000 to $200,000 less than expected. Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby says he's not worried. "When you are talking about a $45 million budget, that's not a very significant amount of money."
Purdue officials will welcome about 80 former players and support staff back to campus for tomorrow's Michigan State game to honor Gene Keady. Among the expected attendees are former Boiler greats Brad Miller, Troy Lewis, Todd Mitchell, Everette Stephens, and Jim Rowinski. Former Michigan State coach Jud Heathcote, a good friend of Keady's, is also expected.
Taking a much-needed break from gabbing with Wonk, Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News says Minnesota is "rapidly playing their way toward the NIT."...Guard Adam Boone has been granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA. Boone has been out all season, after undergoing surgery October 7 to repair a torn bicep tendon. The Minnetonka, Minnesota, native played his first two years at North Carolina, before sitting out a year as a transfer. Boone will be joined next year on the Gopher roster by another familiar face, former Minnesota guard Maurice Hargrow, who is transferring back to Dan Monson's program from Arkansas...Kyle Whelliston has competition! Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, in his excellent weekly recap of the national college hoops scene, breaks down tomorrow's 22-team Bracket Buster here.
Michigan State big man Paul Davis says his team is peaking at the right time. "We're feeling really good right now." Teammate Alan Anderson says he wants to end his senior season with a bang. "I can't have any regrets," says Anderson. "I can't have any woulda, shoulda, coulda days. I'm trying to do whatever it takes."...Dave Dye of the Detroit News predicts an All-Big-Ten first team with a lot of Illini and a second team with a lot of Spartans.
Michigan guard Dion Harris says a long talk with Wolverine footballer Braylon Edwards helped the Michigan guard break out of his shooting slump. Harris has made 10 of his last 21 three's....Can the Wolverines finish at .500 and qualify for the NIT? Indefatigable Michigan beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News says, "It's going to be close." The 12-14 Wolverines play three of their last four games at home. (Also from Spadafore: still no definitive word on when Daniel Horton might return from his suspension. It could come as soon as Sunday's game against Indiana.)
Wisconsin fans greeted Michigan State last month with t-shirts reading: "Bo 5, Izzo 0." The message referred, of course, to the Badger coach's record against the Spartans. For next week's rematch in East Lansing, the responding message is ready and the medium of choice is again t-shirts: "Tom Izzo 4, Bo Ryan 0" reads the front of the shirt. On the back: "We do old school math. National Championships 1 + Final Fours 3 = 4."...Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Jeff Potrykus weighs in on ESPN, Duke, hype, J.J. Redick, Salim Stoudamire and such here.
President Bush finds sea of empty seats at press briefing--stunned Chief Executive is told: "Everyone's assigned to Illinois now." Just how many fans in Iowa City's Carver-Hawkeye Arena for tomorrow's game between Iowa and Illinois will be wearing orange? Steve Alford guesses about 3,000....Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey says "Illinois isn't going to have a letdown." That doesn't mean a national championship is in the bag, Morrissey cautions, but it does mean that Illini fans "can count on maximum effort from Illinois every game."...St. Joseph's coach Phil Martelli, who took his team to 27 consecutive wins last season, says the Illini should keep doing what they're doing and forget the "healthy loss" school of thought: "You'd have to be pretty dumb to learn from a loss," says Martelli. More from the Martelli-on-the-Illini beat here and here...."Illinois guard seems certain to win player of the year"--so sayeth the subhead on Michael Pointer's "Around the Big Ten" column in this morning's Indianapolis Star. Ah, but which Illinois guard? Worries of a split-you-know-what are on the rise! "A split vote might clear a path for Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson [or] Purdue's Carl Landry," says Pointer....Profile of Deron Williams here....Say you just can't get enough information on inscrutable senior Nick Smith? Of course not! But, to be fair, the beat writers are running out of topics so here's a profile anyway....Coverage of the players' families in general here. Coverage (Wonk is not making this up) of James Augustine's uncle in particular here....Coverage of the Illini coverage here. (And if someone links to Wonk's link, it'll be "coverage of the coverage of the Illini coverage"--cool!)
BONUS note on contagious diffusion of iconic pose. Remember Dee Brown draining the big three's against Purdue in West Lafayette and then stretching out his jersey to display the "Illinois"? Brown seems to have started something there: link here to see Louisville's Francisco Garcia adopting a strikingly similar pose after hitting the game-winning three against Marquette in Milwaukee last night.
Wonk back!
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25x5
On Wednesday your intrepid blogger linked to a piece by oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper which contained the following nugget: "The Illini are now the only team in the nation to have won 25 or more games in each of the last five seasons." Wonk's reader's respond!
Dear Wonk,
First and foremost, your blog is terrific.
Second, the following factoid from the oracular Mark Tupper is misleading: The Illini are now the only team in the nation to have won 25 or more games in each of the last five seasons.
While technically true, it is misleading because Illinois is the only team that has accrued 25 wins thus far this season. But that is not to say that others will not achieve such great heights this year. For example, Duke has won at least 25 games in each of the last four seasons and will likely do so again this year. The Blue Devils currently have 18 wins with 6 regular season games and many ACC and NCAA tourney games remaining. Also, many teams have not even played 25 games this year.
Keep up the good work.
Jeremy K.
Los Angeles
Thanks, Jeremy! Actually, the way the Dukies looked last night, Tupper's factoid's looking better and better....
¶ 7:23 AM
Mike DeCourcy covers college basketball as a Senior Writer for The Sporting News. Before joining TSN, he wrote on college hoops at the Cincinnati Enquirer, the Memphis Commercial Appeal, and the Pittsburgh Press. And he’s covered 13 Final Fours. Mike talked to Wonk about the college game in general and about the Big Ten in particular: its past, its future, its teams, and the prospects of those teams in March and beyond.
Q. Mike, I actually want to start off with a question wholly unrelated to the Big Ten. Arizona coach Lute Olson is alleging “east coast media bias” because he keeps hearing about what a great pure shooter Duke’s J.J. Redick supposedly is. My own diligent research tells me Redick’s shooting about 42 percent on his three’s. On the other hand, Olson has a player, Salim Stoudamire, who’s shooting almost 55 percent from beyond the arc. Now, you’re kind of neither east nor west so I doubt Olson had you in mind specifically….
A. Hey, I get accused of east coast bias even though I live in Ohio.
Q. Really? So how do you plead? Is there an east coast bias? Why don’t we hear more about someone hitting almost 55 percent on their three’s?
A. Here’s the thing: Where does Lute Olson hear about J.J. Redick? He hears about him on ESPN. Well, once upon a time, the Pac-10 decided they wanted more money and so they went exclusive with Fox. That means Pac-10 games aren’t on ESPN. And so ESPN doesn’t talk about Stoudamire. That’s the end of the story. The rest of it is all nonsense.
If the Pac-10 were on ESPN, then Dick Vitale would point his jet out to Arizona and he’d cover the Wildcats and there would be no controversy. If the Pac-10 wants to be covered more by ESPN then they probably should have stayed in business with them. Now, Fox does very well by the Pac-10. But it does mean you don’t have Vitale screaming about how great Stoudamire is.
Q. The other day Illinois beat Wisconsin in a game some observers were, apparently, already terming “ugly” by the time postgame interviews were happening. Dee Brown responded by saying, in effect: hey, we play defense in this conference. You see a lot more non-Big-Ten games than I do. Any defense happening out there I should tell Dee about?
A. Every league plays differently because it comes down to the way the officials allow the game to be played. The ACC has always been a much more free-flowing league than just about any other league and, frankly, it’s served them well because that style of play attracts players who can score. And those are the players, basically, that win NCAA championships. Any coach who tells you that defense wins championships probably coaches football.
Q. What about Michigan State in 2000?
A. Oh, you can play great defense and win the national championship. It helps. But you also have to be able to score. Sure, the Spartans only had something like 50 points in the semifinal against Wisconsin that year but then they scored 80-some points in that title game against Florida. Most of the time in the Final Four there are a lot of points being scored. Same with getting there: when Marquette made the Final Four in 2003 they did so not because Dwyane Wade was playing great defense but because he was dunking on everybody.
Q. So the answer to my original question is: no, there’s no defense being played outside the Big Ten.
A. Conference USA plays some great defense but they do it because they have to. Teams like Cincinnati and Charlotte have to play great D to stay with the big boys. The Big 12 plays pretty good defense, obviously, when you have a league with coaches like Bob Knight, Eddie Sutton, Kelvin Sampson, Bill Self, and Rick Barnes. You’re going to have to guard to get out of that league. But all of those teams are only going to go as far in the tournament as their offenses can take them.
Q. Let’s talk about some Big Ten teams, specifically their post-season prospects. How do you see the next few weeks playing out for Wisconsin?
A. It’s hard for me to know what to expect from them because they do a lot of things really well. And the player they have at point guard, Sharif Chambliss, makes big shots but he’s not a true point guard. So their offense is in danger of getting bogged down and that, obviously, can be a concern in the tournament depending on who they get matched up against. The best thing that could happen for the Badgers to advance deep into the tournament would be for them to play against other teams with offenses as problematic as their own.
And “problematic” may be the wrong word. There are times when Wisconsin scores because they get their stuff going and teams don’t know how to guard their sets. The more teams they can play that they can beat with defense and squeeze by with offense the further they can go. Really, so much of this just comes down to who you play.
Q. Alando Tucker seems healthier than he’s been in a while.
A. Tucker is a very difficult player to guard when he’s healthy. And I’ll be honest with you, I’m not 100 percent sure that he’s 100 percent healthy.
Q. I know what you mean. Watching Tucker right now is kind of like watching football being played in the rain or snow: the advantage is with the offense. As long as he’s on offense where he knows where he’s going, he looks good. On defense he’s a little more tentative.
A. Not to mention when he’s at his best he’s going to get fouled a lot and go to the line many times each game. When that happens you’ll know he’s himself again. But in the meantime he’s become a better shooter. So the fact that maybe he doesn’t have quite the explosion that he has when he’s healthy hasn’t been as limiting. He could get that explosiveness back by the end of the year—at that point he’ll be a better player than he’s ever been because he is a better shooter now.
Q. OK, next team, next postseason prognosis: Michigan State.
A. I saw them at their near-worst when they lost to Illinois. You can get a bad impression of a team from something like that and it can fool you. They weren’t tough, they weren’t competitive, and they were playing at home. And it was unsettling to watch them get pushed around by a team that doesn’t push teams around. I mean, Illinois thrashes teams but they don’t do it physically. And in that game I thought the Spartans cowered a bit.
From a standpoint of skill and scoring ability, Michigan State’s really strong. And they guard because they play for a coach who’s one of the best defensive coaches.
The move to Drew Neitzel seems to have put a little spark in them. It’s allowed Chris Hill to be more comfortable, even though he’s coming off the bench—he’s making shots again. I remember at the beginning of the year I thought: it’s not going to work if they don’t go to Neitzel. And then once they got down the road as far as they did I thought, well, they can’t change now. But it appears they’ve been able to do just that. And that gives them some promise.
As for Paul Davis, I can’t explain him to you any more than I can explain quantum physics. I know he’s really talented. I know he can do a lot of good things. I don’t know when he’ll do them.
Q. The Spartans really took a lot of heat from some of the media in Michigan after the Wisconsin game. And it seems like this team’s often being criticized for its record against ranked opponents. Is that fair? Is it accurate?
A. To be honest with you, anyone who talks about a team’s record against ranked opponents is showing a limited knowledge of the game. Because the rankings are nonsense. They’re mumbo-jumbo garbage.
Now, if you want to tell me you don’t think Michigan State is any good because their record against RPI top-25 teams is 0-3, OK, I’ll listen to you. But then I’ll tell you: yeah, but they’re 3-3 against the top-50, that’s not so bad. Not great but not bad. And it also tells you something about the nature of what the Spartans are up against in that debate. Which is: there just aren’t a lot of opportunities for them to play that type of game because the Big Ten hasn’t been very good.
In a league like the ACC you’re going to get four or five ranked teams a year on your floor. Michigan State’s had one. And they didn’t get it done.
Q. They’re about to get their second one, Wisconsin.
A. But that hasn’t happened yet. And so the debate is framed the way it is. Again, look at the RPI top-50. Michigan State’s played six top-50 opponents. That’s not a lot. I can go to Carolina, they’ve played ten. Look at Washington, in a conference that’s not widely feared this year. They’ve played eight. Duke’s played nine. Boston College—people talk about their schedule being weak; well, they’ve played seven. So to get back to this silly business about the Spartans and their record against ranked teams, they just haven’t had the opportunities that would allow you to break a streak like that.
Q. Speaking of a lack of RPI top-50 opponents in the Big Ten, recently there’ve been some suggestions that this could hurt Illinois and their chances in the tournament. Some observers have said that to prepare for the tournament the Illini need better competition than what the conference has provided this year.
A. That’s a fantasy. Look at Gonzaga. In ’99 they went to the Elite Eight and had eventual national champion Connecticut down to its last gasp and scared to death. Who’d they play that year in the WCC?
So who Illinois has or hasn’t played in the last couple weeks is totally irrelevant to who they are and what they’ve accomplished. Look at the record. They had Gonzaga down by 30-some and beat them by 20. Same with Wake Forest. They beat Cincinnati by 20. They beat Michigan State by double-figures. And, except for Wake Forest, none of those were on the Illini’s home floor.
Q. Every time I turn on ESPN it seems like someone’s holding forth on Illinois and their chances in the tournament. What’s your take?
A. They’re the best team in the country but not necessarily from a talent standpoint. So on that basis their prospects for winning the national championship would appear to be less promising than UNLV’s were in 1991, or than Kansas’ were in 1997, or than Duke’s were in 1999. Now, what do all those teams have in common?
Q. They all lost.
A. Exactly.
Q. Not to mention the 2004 L.A. Lakers.
A. Right. So Illinois goes into the tournament with the best team and therefore the best chance of winning it all. But it’s still really hard to do.
Q. Who’s right there with the Illini? Who’s their toughest competition?
A. You know, these next three weeks are much more telling than people give them credit for. Everybody wants to start their projections now but then everything’s going to turn over in the next three weeks. That being said, I think Kansas, Wake Forest, Carolina, Boston College, Oklahoma State—those teams are all really good. I’ll know better in three weeks. And I’ll know best when I see the bracket. But right now I think all those teams have a very good shot at winning the national championship. They all have specific limitations, as Illinois does. And the best way to win a national championship is not to play any of the teams that can take advantage of what you don’t do well.
Q. Is Illinois really as susceptible on the inside as everyone seems to think?
A. Yes, if you can get it inside consistently. But that’s the trick. Can you get it there consistently? Wake Forest brought three great guards into Assembly Hall and couldn’t get the ball inside. If they played on a neutral floor would that change? Maybe. But no matter where Illinois and Wake Forest play, if they play again, it’s not going to be neutral. It may not be the nightmare that Assembly Hall was back on December 1 but it’s not going to be neutral. It’s going to be someplace like Chicago (if Wake doesn’t hold on to a 1-seed) or St. Louis. And that’s part of Illinois’ advantage in this tournament.
Q. Did you know Luther Head would have this kind of year?
A. No. If you’d asked me about Head before the season I probably would have said he’s a two-trick pony: someone who can dunk lobs and make an occasional three.
But his development as a passer and ball handler has been staggering. Almost unprecedented. I don’t remember the last time a player went from dunking alley-oops to being a point-guard-quality player.
I tell you what: if you put Luther Head on Cincinnati and gave him the ball, the Bearcats would instantly become a top-10 team. He is that good of a point guard. And he’s the third-best point guard on his team.
Q. So is this “staggering” change a testament to Head and his commitment to improve or to Bruce Weber and his ability to develop players?
A. Well, I’ll tell you this. It’s a testament to Luther that after he had his off-court problems last year he committed himself to righting his game and righting his life.
But I’ll add this as well. I was at an Illinois practice the other day and they are much heavier on skill development than a lot of other programs. They are paying much more attention to making those guys better basketball players than a lot of other programs do.
Q. The other day in the blog I likened Iowa to one of those people who has an accident on the same day of the year every year.
A. (Laughs). That’s good.
Q. Every year—or at least in years when they have a full roster—it seems like they have a nice non-conference record but then they get to the Big Ten and just can’t get it done. Is Steve Alford just the world’s unluckiest man or is something more systemic at work there?
A. If you look at some of the problems they’ve had—academic problems, behavioral issues—I think a lot of that can come from the choices you make when you’re recruiting. Part of it has to be how you’re administering your program. And maybe those are just small parts and the larger part is bad luck or whatever. But when similar things keep happening to you, you have to wonder how well you’re connecting to the players.
Now, every now and then you get a case like this at any school. Every school has problems. But when the occurrence of this sort of thing is consistent, either you’ve decided that you’re going to play the fringes (where you take chances with at-risk kids and try to do a really good job with them) or you’re just not noticing that you’re taking at-risk kids and/or not doing a good job with them.
Honestly, I don’t know which of those is at work at Iowa. But it just seems like a program like that—a state university with state university cache—should probably have fewer problems than they’ve had.
Q. True/false: the future’s bright at Indiana.
A. If the future is Mike Davis sticking around another year then I think there’s a good chance that the answer is “true.” Because they’ve got really good players that are young and that will get better. And next year they won’t schedule as if they’ve completely lost their minds. The schedule that was put together for this particular team this year….I think the best adjective I can come up with is “inexcusable.”
So I think if Mike is there they will make significant progress next year. If Mike is not there and they make the wrong hire, then the future is not bright because some of the players might leave. But, then again, if Mike’s not there and they hire a brilliant coach who convinces the players to stay, then I guess the future could be bright that way, too. So it could go in any direction.
Q. Last question: among head coaches, who’s your favorite interview--or who’s the most quotable?
A. A lot of writers want to be around a funny guy but I’m not real big on that. For instance, there’s nobody funnier than Rick Barnes. And, don’t get me wrong, I love Rick Barnes. I’ll spend the rest of my life as his next-door neighbor and he’ll keep me entertained forever. But I don’t judge a coach on whether or not he entertains me.
I tell you, I really enjoy Bruce Weber. He opens his soul in ways that are very interesting for a guy who’s got a really large pack of writers following his team. He’s very open about the team. He gives you a lot of insight. I think he’s an interesting interview at this point. A guy who’s coaching the top-ranked team could very easily shut the doors and close his mouth but he’s handling the whole number-1 thing pretty well.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
A faculty committee at Iowa has recommended tougher procedures for dealing with Hawkeye athletes who engage in criminal behavior. The proposed policy, ironically, was apparently drafted in response to Pierre Pierce's legal troubles two years ago but has only been brought forward in light of Pierce's more recent brush with the law. (For you Court TV-esque watchers of the Pierre Pierce case: the text of Pierce's blogospherically much discussed email to his ex-girlfriend, sent a few hours after he had allegedly assaulted her and inflicted significant damage to her home, is here.)...Tomorrow's game against Illinois is sold out but that's been the exception and not the rule: attendance at Iowa home games is poised to dip for the fourth consecutive year. The Hawkeyes are averaging about 11,700 fans per game in a venue with a capacity of 15,500. Revenue may be $100,000 to $200,000 less than expected. Athletic Director Bob Bowlsby says he's not worried. "When you are talking about a $45 million budget, that's not a very significant amount of money."
Purdue officials will welcome about 80 former players and support staff back to campus for tomorrow's Michigan State game to honor Gene Keady. Among the expected attendees are former Boiler greats Brad Miller, Troy Lewis, Todd Mitchell, Everette Stephens, and Jim Rowinski. Former Michigan State coach Jud Heathcote, a good friend of Keady's, is also expected.
Taking a much-needed break from gabbing with Wonk, Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News says Minnesota is "rapidly playing their way toward the NIT."...Guard Adam Boone has been granted a sixth year of eligibility by the NCAA. Boone has been out all season, after undergoing surgery October 7 to repair a torn bicep tendon. The Minnetonka, Minnesota, native played his first two years at North Carolina, before sitting out a year as a transfer. Boone will be joined next year on the Gopher roster by another familiar face, former Minnesota guard Maurice Hargrow, who is transferring back to Dan Monson's program from Arkansas...Kyle Whelliston has competition! Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune, in his excellent weekly recap of the national college hoops scene, breaks down tomorrow's 22-team Bracket Buster here.
Michigan State big man Paul Davis says his team is peaking at the right time. "We're feeling really good right now." Teammate Alan Anderson says he wants to end his senior season with a bang. "I can't have any regrets," says Anderson. "I can't have any woulda, shoulda, coulda days. I'm trying to do whatever it takes."...Dave Dye of the Detroit News predicts an All-Big-Ten first team with a lot of Illini and a second team with a lot of Spartans.
Michigan guard Dion Harris says a long talk with Wolverine footballer Braylon Edwards helped the Michigan guard break out of his shooting slump. Harris has made 10 of his last 21 three's....Can the Wolverines finish at .500 and qualify for the NIT? Indefatigable Michigan beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News says, "It's going to be close." The 12-14 Wolverines play three of their last four games at home. (Also from Spadafore: still no definitive word on when Daniel Horton might return from his suspension. It could come as soon as Sunday's game against Indiana.)
Wisconsin fans greeted Michigan State last month with t-shirts reading: "Bo 5, Izzo 0." The message referred, of course, to the Badger coach's record against the Spartans. For next week's rematch in East Lansing, the responding message is ready and the medium of choice is again t-shirts: "Tom Izzo 4, Bo Ryan 0" reads the front of the shirt. On the back: "We do old school math. National Championships 1 + Final Fours 3 = 4."...Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Jeff Potrykus weighs in on ESPN, Duke, hype, J.J. Redick, Salim Stoudamire and such here.
President Bush finds sea of empty seats at press briefing--stunned Chief Executive is told: "Everyone's assigned to Illinois now." Just how many fans in Iowa City's Carver-Hawkeye Arena for tomorrow's game between Iowa and Illinois will be wearing orange? Steve Alford guesses about 3,000....Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey says "Illinois isn't going to have a letdown." That doesn't mean a national championship is in the bag, Morrissey cautions, but it does mean that Illini fans "can count on maximum effort from Illinois every game."...St. Joseph's coach Phil Martelli, who took his team to 27 consecutive wins last season, says the Illini should keep doing what they're doing and forget the "healthy loss" school of thought: "You'd have to be pretty dumb to learn from a loss," says Martelli. More from the Martelli-on-the-Illini beat here and here...."Illinois guard seems certain to win player of the year"--so sayeth the subhead on Michael Pointer's "Around the Big Ten" column in this morning's Indianapolis Star. Ah, but which Illinois guard? Worries of a split-you-know-what are on the rise! "A split vote might clear a path for Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson [or] Purdue's Carl Landry," says Pointer....Profile of Deron Williams here....Say you just can't get enough information on inscrutable senior Nick Smith? Of course not! But, to be fair, the beat writers are running out of topics so here's a profile anyway....Coverage of the players' families in general here. Coverage (Wonk is not making this up) of James Augustine's uncle in particular here....Coverage of the Illini coverage here. (And if someone links to Wonk's link, it'll be "coverage of the coverage of the Illini coverage"--cool!)
BONUS note on contagious diffusion of iconic pose. Remember Dee Brown draining the big three's against Purdue in West Lafayette and then stretching out his jersey to display the "Illinois"? Brown seems to have started something there: link here to see Louisville's Francisco Garcia adopting a strikingly similar pose after hitting the game-winning three against Marquette in Milwaukee last night.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
25x5
On Wednesday your intrepid blogger linked to a piece by oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper which contained the following nugget: "The Illini are now the only team in the nation to have won 25 or more games in each of the last five seasons." Wonk's reader's respond!
Dear Wonk,
First and foremost, your blog is terrific.
Second, the following factoid from the oracular Mark Tupper is misleading: The Illini are now the only team in the nation to have won 25 or more games in each of the last five seasons.
While technically true, it is misleading because Illinois is the only team that has accrued 25 wins thus far this season. But that is not to say that others will not achieve such great heights this year. For example, Duke has won at least 25 games in each of the last four seasons and will likely do so again this year. The Blue Devils currently have 18 wins with 6 regular season games and many ACC and NCAA tourney games remaining. Also, many teams have not even played 25 games this year.
Keep up the good work.
Jeremy K.
Los Angeles
Thanks, Jeremy! Actually, the way the Dukies looked last night, Tupper's factoid's looking better and better....
¶ 7:23 AM
Thursday, February 17, 2005
COMING tomorrow....
A talk with Mike DeCourcy, Senior Writer on college basketball for the Sporting News. Mike will talk to Wonk about college hoops in general (why is Lute Olson complaining about "east coast media bias"?) and the Big Ten in particular (do any other conferences play defense or is this just a quaint regional artifact peculiar to the Big Ten, like Gene Keady's comb-over?).
Mike will also share his thoughts on:
Indiana. True or false: the future's bright in Bloomington?
Iowa. What's the deal with these seemingly yearly swoons in conference?
Wisconsin. Can they make some noise in the tournament?
Michigan State. Is their record against ranked teams the best measure of how far the Spartans can really go?
Illinois. Are the Illini the favorites to win the national championship?
Tune in tomorrow!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Led by 29 points on 11-of-15 shooting from Carl Landry, Purdue beat Iowa 66-63 in West Lafayette last night, saving Wonk the trouble of doing a "From Here to March 13" write-up on the Hawkeyes. Iowa fans trying to keep hope alive for an NCAA bid point to the Hawkeyes' glittering 12-1 non-conference record: finishing, say, 8-8 in the Big Ten would therefore leave the Hawkeyes (RPI 51) a very respectable 20-9 overall. True, but the tournament selection committee is unlikely to skip over a team in the final Big Ten standings (i.e., Minnesota, RPI 63) to cherry-pick Iowa. (And the committee is very unlikely to give out five bids to this year's Big Ten.) So this is a big loss for the Hawkeyes, now 4-7 in conference and 0-5 in conference road games. Two of those road losses have come in overtime and the total margin of all five losses is just 24 points. They're still L's. Wonk is not going to say Iowa misses Pierre Pierce's perimeter defense, but: Purdue, featuring a backcourt that is hardly the second coming of the '73 Knicks, only gave away seven turnovers. Meanwhile, Jeff Horner engaged in his own moving silent tribute to his absent comrade--not by marking Pierce's number on his shoe, mind you, but by putting up an eerily Pierce-like stat line: 4-of-16 from the floor and five turnovers. "We're just not finishing games," says Iowa coach Steve Alford. "We're just a pretty quiet team and that really hurts us late in games because you just get confused. There was a lot of confusion out there."...Boilermaker beat writer Michael Pointer of the Indianapolis Star says last night's victory was "the most memorable win of a mostly miserable season" for Gene Keady's team. Purdue has now won three straight home games.
(Pierre Pierce news. Documents released yesterday show that Pierce removed a camera and laptop from his ex-girlfriend's home in her presence. The woman told police that Pierce "threw her to the floor and stated words to the effect: 'If you scream, make a sound, or take a breath, it will be your last breath.'")
Michigan State beat Minnesota 81-62 in East Lansing last night. Sometimes stats really do tell you what you need to know: the Spartans shot just .304 on their three's (7-of-23) but .571 (32-of-56) overall. Translation: lots of transition, lots of dunks. Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says the Gophers were "unable to counter either the pace or the depth" of the Spartans. Tom Izzo says: "Our break is so much better. We're pushing it better." Dan Monson agrees: "They just ran the ball by us." Todd Schulz of the Lansing State Journal says he and his brethren and sistren in the media have perhaps "been a tad tight with the credit" when talking about a Spartan team that's 18-4 and on-track for its highest tournament seed in four years. Schulz's colleague at the LSJ, Mark Feather, writes that State's 45 first-half points were "the largest first-half total in Big Ten play this season." Technically true! Then, about an hour later, Illinois went out and put up 52 first-half points against Penn State. Alas. (Additional Spartan links here and here.)...What does this do to the Gophers' chances for an NCAA bid? Dan Monson's team finishes with home games against Ohio State and Iowa and road games at Purdue and Penn State. Rick Alonzo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says: "It's not a daunting finish, but for a team that appears to be running out of gas, the next four games are critical."
Wisconsin beat Michigan 76-50 in Madison last night. The Wolverines scored just 17 first-half points. "We collapsed mentally," said Michigan big man Courtney Sims. "It's hard to sustain that energy defensively when you're struggling to score," said Tommy Amaker afterward. Mike Wilkinson scored 22 for the Badgers. "We wanted to make a statement where we still are an in-the-paint, low-post kind of team," explained Alando Tucker. Columnist Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal says the injury- and suspension-riddled Wolverines are "a classic example of how quickly things can go south in college basketball." After a 3-0 start in conference, Michigan's now lost nine straight.
(Daniel Horton news. Horton practiced with the Michigan team Tuesday for the first time since his January 25 suspension. But Tommy Amaker says Horton's playing status is still yet to be determined.)
Illinois beat Penn State 83-63 in State College last night and it wasn't that close--the Illini led 52-30 at the half. "The overriding feeling was one of a marquee act come to a tiny stage," writes David Jones in this morning's Harrisburg Patriot-News. "The Illini were Tom Hanks visiting summer stock and playing with the wide-eyed community theater." (Indeed, Illini write-ups this morning read like theater reviews. And the show's a hit: "Awesome," says Neil Milbert of the Chicago Tribune. "Brilliant," adds Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.) Like the "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" quintet descending on a dingy apartment, the Nittany Lions take your stats on offense and instantly make them beautiful. Here's Wonk's favorite: Illinois recorded 19 assists--in the first half (27 for the game, on 34 field goals). "They're the most unselfish team I've been around in a long, long time," marveled Nittany Lion coach Ed DeChellis. Roger Powell, primary beneficiary of many an extra-pass, had a pretty nice stat line: 21 points on 10-of-10 shooting. Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says "this was more scrimmage than actual game." Having watched number 2 Kansas and number 3 Kentucky fall on the road this week, Dee Brown explained the dominating performance thusly: "We didn't want nobody storming the court on us." The 26th consecutive Illinois victory sets a new school record. (More Illini links here and here.)...Yesterday Wonk chronicled how a new Penn State campus eatery, Wings over Happy Valley, was offering a free order of seven jumbo wings to each attendee of the Illinois game in the event that the Nittany Lions pulled off the upset. After last night's Illini victory Bruce Weber admitted: "The first thing they said in the locker room was 'No wings, no wings.'''
Indiana guard Donald Perry has quit the team for undisclosed reasons.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest report from alert reader and die-hard Illini fan Jason
Wonk,
I read Mark Tupper's article on Powell in which he detailed the Illini's run of five consecutive years with 25+ victories. Now, while that is an accomplishment certainly worthy of note, it feels...well, hollow. Golf analogy: the Illini now are like Mickelson before he nabbed his green jacket, the best to never win a major (for the sake of argument, let's assume the Masters is the golf's national title equivalent). They've piled up a bunch of wins at tournaments whose names begin with "Greater," but have yet to win the granddaddy in April. Phil finally did; will Illinois follow suit?
Still anxiously awaiting my trip to Columbus next month for the U of I's final Big Ten game, and possibly, to partake in their undefeated Big 10 regular season. Expect full reportage and my best percentage based estimate of orange vs. red clad fans in attendance (early O/U line, orange = 35%).
Pursuant to your quest to analyze Big Ten bubble teams, I'm not sure any of them will make it. Iowa has the best RPI and possible the best overall resume of the three squads, but they need to start winning (preferably after Saturday) or the committee's peculiar weighting of the last 10 games will doom them. (If the last ten are so important, then shouldn't everyone only play ten?) The Hawkeyes sub-.500 league marks isn't helping much either.
Minnesota has the curious ability to lose at all the wrong times (Florida State, Northwestern) and, with middling RPI numbers (63 overall, two wins vs. RPI top 50 per Pomeroy's team page), your calculation that they must win out after tonight is shared in this quarter. But if Monson's team is truly tapped, should we realistically expect them to do so?
IU could produce the nightmarish scenario you describe, sending the committee chair into late night screaming and coursing through posh hotel hallways, but they aren't equipped to do so. This group can't win on the road, just can't. Two more road losses in their final five games means they'll likely finish 8-8 or 9-7 in the Big Ten, and that won't be enough to get IU into the conversation, let alone the tournament. They need to win the Big Ten tournament.
In the end, the league will probably get four bids. But it will take strong finishes from Iowa and Minnesota, including good showings in the Big Ten Tournament, to get one or both into the dance. Hopefully one or both will make a run and erase the potential of being a three-bid league. Even if the three bids are 4 seeds or better, that would be a significant embarrassment for Big Ten fans.
Jason H.
Thanks, Jason!
¶ 7:53 AM
A talk with Mike DeCourcy, Senior Writer on college basketball for the Sporting News. Mike will talk to Wonk about college hoops in general (why is Lute Olson complaining about "east coast media bias"?) and the Big Ten in particular (do any other conferences play defense or is this just a quaint regional artifact peculiar to the Big Ten, like Gene Keady's comb-over?).
Mike will also share his thoughts on:
Indiana. True or false: the future's bright in Bloomington?
Iowa. What's the deal with these seemingly yearly swoons in conference?
Wisconsin. Can they make some noise in the tournament?
Michigan State. Is their record against ranked teams the best measure of how far the Spartans can really go?
Illinois. Are the Illini the favorites to win the national championship?
Tune in tomorrow!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Led by 29 points on 11-of-15 shooting from Carl Landry, Purdue beat Iowa 66-63 in West Lafayette last night, saving Wonk the trouble of doing a "From Here to March 13" write-up on the Hawkeyes. Iowa fans trying to keep hope alive for an NCAA bid point to the Hawkeyes' glittering 12-1 non-conference record: finishing, say, 8-8 in the Big Ten would therefore leave the Hawkeyes (RPI 51) a very respectable 20-9 overall. True, but the tournament selection committee is unlikely to skip over a team in the final Big Ten standings (i.e., Minnesota, RPI 63) to cherry-pick Iowa. (And the committee is very unlikely to give out five bids to this year's Big Ten.) So this is a big loss for the Hawkeyes, now 4-7 in conference and 0-5 in conference road games. Two of those road losses have come in overtime and the total margin of all five losses is just 24 points. They're still L's. Wonk is not going to say Iowa misses Pierre Pierce's perimeter defense, but: Purdue, featuring a backcourt that is hardly the second coming of the '73 Knicks, only gave away seven turnovers. Meanwhile, Jeff Horner engaged in his own moving silent tribute to his absent comrade--not by marking Pierce's number on his shoe, mind you, but by putting up an eerily Pierce-like stat line: 4-of-16 from the floor and five turnovers. "We're just not finishing games," says Iowa coach Steve Alford. "We're just a pretty quiet team and that really hurts us late in games because you just get confused. There was a lot of confusion out there."...Boilermaker beat writer Michael Pointer of the Indianapolis Star says last night's victory was "the most memorable win of a mostly miserable season" for Gene Keady's team. Purdue has now won three straight home games.
(Pierre Pierce news. Documents released yesterday show that Pierce removed a camera and laptop from his ex-girlfriend's home in her presence. The woman told police that Pierce "threw her to the floor and stated words to the effect: 'If you scream, make a sound, or take a breath, it will be your last breath.'")
Michigan State beat Minnesota 81-62 in East Lansing last night. Sometimes stats really do tell you what you need to know: the Spartans shot just .304 on their three's (7-of-23) but .571 (32-of-56) overall. Translation: lots of transition, lots of dunks. Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says the Gophers were "unable to counter either the pace or the depth" of the Spartans. Tom Izzo says: "Our break is so much better. We're pushing it better." Dan Monson agrees: "They just ran the ball by us." Todd Schulz of the Lansing State Journal says he and his brethren and sistren in the media have perhaps "been a tad tight with the credit" when talking about a Spartan team that's 18-4 and on-track for its highest tournament seed in four years. Schulz's colleague at the LSJ, Mark Feather, writes that State's 45 first-half points were "the largest first-half total in Big Ten play this season." Technically true! Then, about an hour later, Illinois went out and put up 52 first-half points against Penn State. Alas. (Additional Spartan links here and here.)...What does this do to the Gophers' chances for an NCAA bid? Dan Monson's team finishes with home games against Ohio State and Iowa and road games at Purdue and Penn State. Rick Alonzo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says: "It's not a daunting finish, but for a team that appears to be running out of gas, the next four games are critical."
Wisconsin beat Michigan 76-50 in Madison last night. The Wolverines scored just 17 first-half points. "We collapsed mentally," said Michigan big man Courtney Sims. "It's hard to sustain that energy defensively when you're struggling to score," said Tommy Amaker afterward. Mike Wilkinson scored 22 for the Badgers. "We wanted to make a statement where we still are an in-the-paint, low-post kind of team," explained Alando Tucker. Columnist Tom Oates of the Wisconsin State Journal says the injury- and suspension-riddled Wolverines are "a classic example of how quickly things can go south in college basketball." After a 3-0 start in conference, Michigan's now lost nine straight.
(Daniel Horton news. Horton practiced with the Michigan team Tuesday for the first time since his January 25 suspension. But Tommy Amaker says Horton's playing status is still yet to be determined.)
Illinois beat Penn State 83-63 in State College last night and it wasn't that close--the Illini led 52-30 at the half. "The overriding feeling was one of a marquee act come to a tiny stage," writes David Jones in this morning's Harrisburg Patriot-News. "The Illini were Tom Hanks visiting summer stock and playing with the wide-eyed community theater." (Indeed, Illini write-ups this morning read like theater reviews. And the show's a hit: "Awesome," says Neil Milbert of the Chicago Tribune. "Brilliant," adds Jeremy Rutherford of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.) Like the "Queer Eye for the Straight Guy" quintet descending on a dingy apartment, the Nittany Lions take your stats on offense and instantly make them beautiful. Here's Wonk's favorite: Illinois recorded 19 assists--in the first half (27 for the game, on 34 field goals). "They're the most unselfish team I've been around in a long, long time," marveled Nittany Lion coach Ed DeChellis. Roger Powell, primary beneficiary of many an extra-pass, had a pretty nice stat line: 21 points on 10-of-10 shooting. Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says "this was more scrimmage than actual game." Having watched number 2 Kansas and number 3 Kentucky fall on the road this week, Dee Brown explained the dominating performance thusly: "We didn't want nobody storming the court on us." The 26th consecutive Illinois victory sets a new school record. (More Illini links here and here.)...Yesterday Wonk chronicled how a new Penn State campus eatery, Wings over Happy Valley, was offering a free order of seven jumbo wings to each attendee of the Illinois game in the event that the Nittany Lions pulled off the upset. After last night's Illini victory Bruce Weber admitted: "The first thing they said in the locker room was 'No wings, no wings.'''
Indiana guard Donald Perry has quit the team for undisclosed reasons.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest report from alert reader and die-hard Illini fan Jason
Wonk,
I read Mark Tupper's article on Powell in which he detailed the Illini's run of five consecutive years with 25+ victories. Now, while that is an accomplishment certainly worthy of note, it feels...well, hollow. Golf analogy: the Illini now are like Mickelson before he nabbed his green jacket, the best to never win a major (for the sake of argument, let's assume the Masters is the golf's national title equivalent). They've piled up a bunch of wins at tournaments whose names begin with "Greater," but have yet to win the granddaddy in April. Phil finally did; will Illinois follow suit?
Still anxiously awaiting my trip to Columbus next month for the U of I's final Big Ten game, and possibly, to partake in their undefeated Big 10 regular season. Expect full reportage and my best percentage based estimate of orange vs. red clad fans in attendance (early O/U line, orange = 35%).
Pursuant to your quest to analyze Big Ten bubble teams, I'm not sure any of them will make it. Iowa has the best RPI and possible the best overall resume of the three squads, but they need to start winning (preferably after Saturday) or the committee's peculiar weighting of the last 10 games will doom them. (If the last ten are so important, then shouldn't everyone only play ten?) The Hawkeyes sub-.500 league marks isn't helping much either.
Minnesota has the curious ability to lose at all the wrong times (Florida State, Northwestern) and, with middling RPI numbers (63 overall, two wins vs. RPI top 50 per Pomeroy's team page), your calculation that they must win out after tonight is shared in this quarter. But if Monson's team is truly tapped, should we realistically expect them to do so?
IU could produce the nightmarish scenario you describe, sending the committee chair into late night screaming and coursing through posh hotel hallways, but they aren't equipped to do so. This group can't win on the road, just can't. Two more road losses in their final five games means they'll likely finish 8-8 or 9-7 in the Big Ten, and that won't be enough to get IU into the conversation, let alone the tournament. They need to win the Big Ten tournament.
In the end, the league will probably get four bids. But it will take strong finishes from Iowa and Minnesota, including good showings in the Big Ten Tournament, to get one or both into the dance. Hopefully one or both will make a run and erase the potential of being a three-bid league. Even if the three bids are 4 seeds or better, that would be a significant embarrassment for Big Ten fans.
Jason H.
Thanks, Jason!
¶ 7:53 AM
Wednesday, February 16, 2005
From here to March 13 (part 2)
Welcome to day 2 of Wonk's sagacious pontificating on the postseason prospects of the Big Ten's bubble-ish teams! Yesterday your intrepid blogger looked at the scrappy young Indiana Hoosiers, who then promptly went out and laid the latest in a series of road eggs last night, one likely fatal to their chances (see below). This has both Iowa and Minnesota--both with games tonight--emailing Wonk frantically this morning: "Don't post on us! Don't post on us!"
Ha! Silly teams. Wonk will not be swerved by so much as one iota from his duty! (Except with generous cash payments.) And so, fair readers, I give you today's singular subject for searching scrutiny, Dan Monson's lovable band of who-dat's, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Minnesota (16-8, 6-5)
Remaining games:
at Michigan State (tonight)
vs. Ohio State (Saturday)
vs. Iowa (2/23)
at Purdue (2/26)
at Penn State (3/2)
The Gophers must look at that schedule and at that record and think: Doh! If only we hadn't collapsed in the last four minutes at home against Northwestern. We'd be 7-4, tied for third in the conference with Wisconsin.
To which Wonk says: Yup! Pretty much! That Northwestern loss was huge. Losing at home in February to a conference foe with an RPI of 129 usually is. So where does that leave Minnesota today? Better yet, let's move ahead 24 hours....
For the sake of discussion let us assume Dan Monson's team rolls out of bed tomorrow morning at 6-6 in conference. From such a middling perch (and with an RPI of 63), the Gophers will want to win out to give themselves any shot at the tournament. (Remembering always, of course, ATCWCT!)
The good news is the schedule gives Minnesota a decent chance of running the table after tonight. The bad news, however, is that Dan Monson has worried openly about his team's fatigue--and the numbers bear him out. Over their last two games the Gophers are just 32 of 91 from the field (.352) and just 5 of 27 on their three's (.185). And in those two games Minnesota's turned the ball over 38 times (against opponents, Northwestern and Indiana, not exactly known as attacking ball-hawking fiends).
Bottom line...um, for today: The Gophers likely won't win tonight but a good showing would still go a long way toward quelling fears that their tank is empty and that their bid is in serious peril.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State beat Indiana 57-44 in Columbus last night. Bracey Wright dressed but did not play for the Hoosiers. For all those commentators who thought Illinois' win over Wisconsin on Saturday was "ugly," verily Wonk sayeth unto thee: this was ugly. And how! Good grief, watching brick after wayward brick (many not even drawing iron) flung haplessly up in the museum-quality silence of the somnambulant Value City Arena, Wonk was forced to repeatedly turn away from the screen in Edvard Munch-level horror. At one point your intrepid blogger actually thought he heard Steve Lavin snoring. Buckeye coach Thad Matta, calling upon the tactful phrasing that comes so naturally to we central Illinois natives, put it this way: "I don’t think I have ever coached in a game where the shot clock was more involved." Indianapolis Star Hoosier beat writer Terry Hutchens says this was yet "another crucial road loss for an IU team that came into the week probably needing to win at least one of two road games to keep alive its slim hopes for an NCAA tournament berth." D.J. White, still a believer, says from here on out his Hoosiers will "have to win every game."
Michigan State hosts Minnesota tonight in East Lansing. In this morning's Minneapolis Star Tribune, perceptive Gopher watcher Jeff Shelman says Vincent Grier's brilliant 26-point second half against Wisconsin was actually "the beginning of a downturn in the Gophers' offense." How so? "In the Wisconsin game and recent losses to Northwestern and Indiana, the ball hasn't moved as quickly or as often. The Gophers haven't cut to the basket or run off screens as frequently. Instead, the Gophers' offense has consisted of getting the ball to Grier and letting him go to work."...Profile of Grier here....Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says other coaches may be worried about fatigue at this point in the season but he is not. "I'm happy to say that maybe right now is when we get a little stronger because of our depth."...Freshman point guard Drew Neitzel will again get the start tonight in place of Chris Hill....Profile of Spartan forward Alan Anderson here....Paul Davis needs five points to become the fourth current Spartan to record 1,000 career points, the others being Chris Hill, Kelvin Torbert, and Alan Anderson.
Wisconsin hosts Michigan tonight in Madison. Wolverine beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News says Michigan is consistent in their inconsistency. Tommy Amaker's players know at this point they're playing to get to .500 and another NIT bid....Profile of Badger big man Mike "Green Acres" Wilkinson here.
Penn State hosts Illinois tonight in State College, where a new restaurant called Wings over Happy Valley is offering a free order of seven jumbo wings to every fan in attendance tonight if the Nittany Lions pull off the upset. Should store manager Steve Moreira be worried? Penn State coach Ed DeChellis says, er, maybe: "It's going to be a tough task, but it can be done."...Illini pride factoid of the day: Illinois is the only team in the nation to have won 25 or more games each of the last five seasons....Dee Brown is pumped! It may be Penn State but Brown says: "These are the biggest games, bigger than Wisconsin, bigger than anybody. These games get you your rings. If you lose these games, you're right back on your butt. It's that simple."...Yes, Luther Head's hair is getting bigger. The senior guard is staying away from haircuts as a good luck charm....Three-headed monster coverage here....Kent Benson, he of the undefeated 1976 Indiana team, says he for one is not worried about this year's Illini duplicating the storied accomplishment that he and his teammates recorded for the ages. At least not yet. "It's way too early in the season. I don't even begin to get concerned about it or think about it until the Final Four."
Purdue hosts Iowa tonight in West Lafayette. Yesterday coach Steve Alford met with Pierre Pierce and denied his appeal to be reinstated to the team. (Next step for Pierce: a written appeal to Iowa AD Bob Bowlsby.) As for tonight's match up, Alford says correctly, "This is a key road game." Which is to say: the Hawkeyes are yet to win a conference road game. And losing tonight to the Boilermakers (RPI 219, not a typo) would not exactly enhance Iowa's already slim chances for an NCAA invite....Coming off a bye week, Purdue coach Gene Keady says his team is rested and ready.
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Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
An All-Head-Case coach?
Wonk,
Love your stuff and, no, that is not just a pitiful cry for acceptance and recognition.
If you are going to the trouble of anointing an All Head-Case Team (and who am I to argue with the Almighty Wonk?) you might as well finish the job and give us the All Head-Case Coach. Think of the possibilities...
Behind door number 1, we have Mean Gene Keady, who sounded like he was going to go postal and single-handedly massacre his own team...and this was BEFORE they played last weekend.
Behind door number 2, we have the always beloved Steve Alford, who threw his team under the bus after a ghastly loss against Northwestern earlier this year.
Behind door number 3, we have Mike Davis, who perpetually looks like someone just ran over his dog.
And let's not forget those bit players in the Big Ten ranks, Bruce Weber (love the guy, but who else can answer one question from the media for forty-five minutes and never even pause to take a breath) and Tommy Amaker (he gets a pass for this year, but has anyone ever failed to fill expectations more thoroughly than this man?)
Wonk, we demand an accounting!
John G.
Woodridge, IL
Thanks, John! Wonk is going to reach outside the Big Ten for still another nomination....
Readers, if you haven't already seen this tidbit making its way throughout the blogosphere, please link to it now. It is video of Missouri coach Quin Snyder in the locker room with his team. In this precious bound-for-the-Smithsonian clip, Snyder (Wonk is not making this up) is singing his own soulful solo rendition of the 1982 Survivor hit "Eye of the Tiger" to his bewildered players, none of whom were sentient music-listening beings 23 years ago. (This link comes to you from, where else, a Kansas Jayhawk blog, the very well done Phog Blog.)
In Wonk biographical terms, Snyder's bizarre warbling equates roughly to the spectacle that would have been presented to this blogger, when he was but a reserve powerless forward on the Springfield H.S. sophomore team, if coach Clark Barnes had attempted to "keep it real" with us jaded youngsters by suddenly bursting forth with his rendition of "A Tisket, a Tasket" or "Mama Will Bark."
¶ 7:18 AM
Welcome to day 2 of Wonk's sagacious pontificating on the postseason prospects of the Big Ten's bubble-ish teams! Yesterday your intrepid blogger looked at the scrappy young Indiana Hoosiers, who then promptly went out and laid the latest in a series of road eggs last night, one likely fatal to their chances (see below). This has both Iowa and Minnesota--both with games tonight--emailing Wonk frantically this morning: "Don't post on us! Don't post on us!"
Ha! Silly teams. Wonk will not be swerved by so much as one iota from his duty! (Except with generous cash payments.) And so, fair readers, I give you today's singular subject for searching scrutiny, Dan Monson's lovable band of who-dat's, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.
Minnesota (16-8, 6-5)
Remaining games:
at Michigan State (tonight)
vs. Ohio State (Saturday)
vs. Iowa (2/23)
at Purdue (2/26)
at Penn State (3/2)
The Gophers must look at that schedule and at that record and think: Doh! If only we hadn't collapsed in the last four minutes at home against Northwestern. We'd be 7-4, tied for third in the conference with Wisconsin.
To which Wonk says: Yup! Pretty much! That Northwestern loss was huge. Losing at home in February to a conference foe with an RPI of 129 usually is. So where does that leave Minnesota today? Better yet, let's move ahead 24 hours....
For the sake of discussion let us assume Dan Monson's team rolls out of bed tomorrow morning at 6-6 in conference. From such a middling perch (and with an RPI of 63), the Gophers will want to win out to give themselves any shot at the tournament. (Remembering always, of course, ATCWCT!)
The good news is the schedule gives Minnesota a decent chance of running the table after tonight. The bad news, however, is that Dan Monson has worried openly about his team's fatigue--and the numbers bear him out. Over their last two games the Gophers are just 32 of 91 from the field (.352) and just 5 of 27 on their three's (.185). And in those two games Minnesota's turned the ball over 38 times (against opponents, Northwestern and Indiana, not exactly known as attacking ball-hawking fiends).
Bottom line...um, for today: The Gophers likely won't win tonight but a good showing would still go a long way toward quelling fears that their tank is empty and that their bid is in serious peril.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State beat Indiana 57-44 in Columbus last night. Bracey Wright dressed but did not play for the Hoosiers. For all those commentators who thought Illinois' win over Wisconsin on Saturday was "ugly," verily Wonk sayeth unto thee: this was ugly. And how! Good grief, watching brick after wayward brick (many not even drawing iron) flung haplessly up in the museum-quality silence of the somnambulant Value City Arena, Wonk was forced to repeatedly turn away from the screen in Edvard Munch-level horror. At one point your intrepid blogger actually thought he heard Steve Lavin snoring. Buckeye coach Thad Matta, calling upon the tactful phrasing that comes so naturally to we central Illinois natives, put it this way: "I don’t think I have ever coached in a game where the shot clock was more involved." Indianapolis Star Hoosier beat writer Terry Hutchens says this was yet "another crucial road loss for an IU team that came into the week probably needing to win at least one of two road games to keep alive its slim hopes for an NCAA tournament berth." D.J. White, still a believer, says from here on out his Hoosiers will "have to win every game."
Michigan State hosts Minnesota tonight in East Lansing. In this morning's Minneapolis Star Tribune, perceptive Gopher watcher Jeff Shelman says Vincent Grier's brilliant 26-point second half against Wisconsin was actually "the beginning of a downturn in the Gophers' offense." How so? "In the Wisconsin game and recent losses to Northwestern and Indiana, the ball hasn't moved as quickly or as often. The Gophers haven't cut to the basket or run off screens as frequently. Instead, the Gophers' offense has consisted of getting the ball to Grier and letting him go to work."...Profile of Grier here....Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says other coaches may be worried about fatigue at this point in the season but he is not. "I'm happy to say that maybe right now is when we get a little stronger because of our depth."...Freshman point guard Drew Neitzel will again get the start tonight in place of Chris Hill....Profile of Spartan forward Alan Anderson here....Paul Davis needs five points to become the fourth current Spartan to record 1,000 career points, the others being Chris Hill, Kelvin Torbert, and Alan Anderson.
Wisconsin hosts Michigan tonight in Madison. Wolverine beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News says Michigan is consistent in their inconsistency. Tommy Amaker's players know at this point they're playing to get to .500 and another NIT bid....Profile of Badger big man Mike "Green Acres" Wilkinson here.
Penn State hosts Illinois tonight in State College, where a new restaurant called Wings over Happy Valley is offering a free order of seven jumbo wings to every fan in attendance tonight if the Nittany Lions pull off the upset. Should store manager Steve Moreira be worried? Penn State coach Ed DeChellis says, er, maybe: "It's going to be a tough task, but it can be done."...Illini pride factoid of the day: Illinois is the only team in the nation to have won 25 or more games each of the last five seasons....Dee Brown is pumped! It may be Penn State but Brown says: "These are the biggest games, bigger than Wisconsin, bigger than anybody. These games get you your rings. If you lose these games, you're right back on your butt. It's that simple."...Yes, Luther Head's hair is getting bigger. The senior guard is staying away from haircuts as a good luck charm....Three-headed monster coverage here....Kent Benson, he of the undefeated 1976 Indiana team, says he for one is not worried about this year's Illini duplicating the storied accomplishment that he and his teammates recorded for the ages. At least not yet. "It's way too early in the season. I don't even begin to get concerned about it or think about it until the Final Four."
Purdue hosts Iowa tonight in West Lafayette. Yesterday coach Steve Alford met with Pierre Pierce and denied his appeal to be reinstated to the team. (Next step for Pierce: a written appeal to Iowa AD Bob Bowlsby.) As for tonight's match up, Alford says correctly, "This is a key road game." Which is to say: the Hawkeyes are yet to win a conference road game. And losing tonight to the Boilermakers (RPI 219, not a typo) would not exactly enhance Iowa's already slim chances for an NCAA invite....Coming off a bye week, Purdue coach Gene Keady says his team is rested and ready.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
An All-Head-Case coach?
Wonk,
Love your stuff and, no, that is not just a pitiful cry for acceptance and recognition.
If you are going to the trouble of anointing an All Head-Case Team (and who am I to argue with the Almighty Wonk?) you might as well finish the job and give us the All Head-Case Coach. Think of the possibilities...
Behind door number 1, we have Mean Gene Keady, who sounded like he was going to go postal and single-handedly massacre his own team...and this was BEFORE they played last weekend.
Behind door number 2, we have the always beloved Steve Alford, who threw his team under the bus after a ghastly loss against Northwestern earlier this year.
Behind door number 3, we have Mike Davis, who perpetually looks like someone just ran over his dog.
And let's not forget those bit players in the Big Ten ranks, Bruce Weber (love the guy, but who else can answer one question from the media for forty-five minutes and never even pause to take a breath) and Tommy Amaker (he gets a pass for this year, but has anyone ever failed to fill expectations more thoroughly than this man?)
Wonk, we demand an accounting!
John G.
Woodridge, IL
Thanks, John! Wonk is going to reach outside the Big Ten for still another nomination....
Readers, if you haven't already seen this tidbit making its way throughout the blogosphere, please link to it now. It is video of Missouri coach Quin Snyder in the locker room with his team. In this precious bound-for-the-Smithsonian clip, Snyder (Wonk is not making this up) is singing his own soulful solo rendition of the 1982 Survivor hit "Eye of the Tiger" to his bewildered players, none of whom were sentient music-listening beings 23 years ago. (This link comes to you from, where else, a Kansas Jayhawk blog, the very well done Phog Blog.)
In Wonk biographical terms, Snyder's bizarre warbling equates roughly to the spectacle that would have been presented to this blogger, when he was but a reserve powerless forward on the Springfield H.S. sophomore team, if coach Clark Barnes had attempted to "keep it real" with us jaded youngsters by suddenly bursting forth with his rendition of "A Tisket, a Tasket" or "Mama Will Bark."
¶ 7:18 AM
Tuesday, February 15, 2005
Between now and March 13 (first in an occasional series)
Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are in. Three other Big Ten teams are clinging to at least an outside shot of making it to the NCAA tournament: Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa. This week, in addition to his usual prodigious musings, your intrepid blogger will look at each team's chances--unless one of them falls off the bubble before I post on them, in which case they will have saved me the trouble (insert Edna Krabappel voice here): ha!
(And yes, any team, including Penn State or Purdue, could win the conference tournament and get a bid. Duly noted. From now on this dreary pro forma acknowledgment will be acronymed for the fast-paced lifestyles of busy Wonk readers as ATCWCT.)
Today Wonk looks at those scrappy young Indiana Hoosiers.
Indiana (11-10, 6-4)
Remaining games:
at Ohio State (tonight)
at Michigan (Sunday)
vs. Purdue (2/22)
vs. Michigan State (2/27)
at Wisconsin (3/1)
vs. Northwestern (3/5)
Precisely as Wonk predicted! The Hoosiers are this week's topic A for those of us looking with increasing desperation for the occasional non-Illinois discursive space in the Big Ten. Just within the past 24 hours the little matter of Indiana's tournament worthiness has sparked: a lively discussion on the always lively comments board at Yoni Cohen's industry-standard College Basketball Blog; a coolly precise piece of analysis ("while Indiana has a shot if they go something like 5-1 down the stretch, I don't think they will, especially with Bracey Wright coming back"--ouch!) from the always coolly precise Ken Pomeroy; and even an encyclical from espn.com's pocket pontiff, Andy Katz. ("If they can take out Ohio State on the road then the discussion of Indiana as a possible NCAA Tournament team [can] begin." Egad! Wonk is noncompliant! Don't report me.)
Here's the deal with the Hoosiers: if they go, say, 4-2 the rest of the way they are the selection committee's worst nightmare--a profile from hell. Horrified hotel staff at whichever posh hostelry is hosting the committee this year may well see portly AD's running through the halls screaming with their hands above their heads. For when it comes to Indiana, all of the following descriptors could apply: 10-6 in conference (supposedly the gold standard--but so was 9-7 once) but just 15-12 (or so--depending on the Big Ten tournament) overall. An RPI up around the 80s (supposedly verboten). Undefeated in conference at home. Zero quality road wins.
Wonk says those descriptors could apply--this observer doesn't think they will. For one thing Wonk expects Michigan State to win in Bloomington, negating the claim of an undefeated conference run at home. And your intrepid blogger directs your attention to a surprising corner of the Hoosier schedule: the game at home a week from tonight against Purdue. The Boilermakers are actually playing better. Since starting 0-6 in conference they've gone 2-2. They will be up for this game (Gene Keady's last against IU). Carl Landry will be the best player on the floor. And the Hoosiers will be playing on one day of rest, caught between the Scylla of a CBS Sunday and Charybdis of an ESPN Tuesday. Keep an eye on this game.
Bottom line...um, for today: If the Hoosiers lose their nationally televised game tonight at Ohio State, watch for a round of well!-that's-the-end-of-that! talk. Know what? The talk will be correct--if Michigan State finishes the job with a road win a week from Sunday (and assuming, natch, that Wisconsin holds serve at home on March 1).
Forget PPG. Remember PPWS.
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat that not only measures scoring efficiency, it also captures more than just points from the field (unlike, say, points per shot or "PPS"). This stat takes in both FGA's and FTA's. It's points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by Wonk. Here are the latest Big Ten PPWS numbers:
Top 20 PPWS
1. Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (1.43)
2. James Augustine, Illinois (1.39)
3. Dee Brown, Illinois (1.36)
4. Luther Head, Illinois (1.33)
5. Carl Landry, Purdue (1.32)
6. Brent Lawson, Minnesota (1.30)
7. Jeff Hagen, Minnesota (1.28)
8. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.28)
9. Alan Anderson, Michigan State (1.26)
10. J.J. Sullinger, Ohio State (1.26)
11. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.26)
12. Adam Haluska, Iowa (1.25)
13. D.J. White, Indiana (1.25)
14. Aaron Robinson, Minnesota (1.24)
15. Chris Hill, Michigan State (1.23)
16. Roger Powell, Illinois (1.23)
17. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.22)
18. Clayton Hanson, Wisconsin (1.22)
19. Ivan Harris, Ohio State (1.22)
20. Greg Brunner, Iowa (1.21)
Bottom 20 PPWS
1. Ben Luber, Penn State (0.81)
2. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (0.81)
3. Nick Smith, Illinois (0.85)
4. Brandon McKnight, Purdue (0.85)
5. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (0.89)
6. Mike Henderson, Iowa (0.91)
7. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (0.93)
8. Ray Nixon, Wisconsin (0.93)
9. Dion Harris, Michigan (0.95)
10. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (0.96)
11. Andreas Helmigk, Wisconsin (0.96)
12. David Teague, Purdue (0.97)
13. Brandon Fuss-Cheatham, Ohio State (0.98)
14. Dan Coleman, Minnesota (0.98)
15. Erek Hansen, Iowa (1.00)
16. Xavier Price, Purdue (1.00)
17. Robert Vaden, Indiana (1.01)
18. Aaron Johnson, Penn State (1.01)
19. John Andrews, Michigan (1.02)
20. Geary Claxton, Penn State (1.03)
What it means. Give Kelvin Torbert 12 FGA's and six FTA's and he'll likely score about 21 points. Give Ben Luber the same number of shots and he'll likely score about 12.
What it really means. In his own ruminations, Wonk has taken to using PPWS not so much as a ranking but as more of a character reference. With all due respect to Kelvin Torbert and James Augustine, your intrepid blogger directs your attention to the next three names on the list: Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry. While scoring about 100 more points than Torbert or Augustine, these three are performing at virtually the same level of efficiency. Incredible. And Landry in particular merits a new adjective. This guy is not only scoring lots of points, he's somehow doing so efficiently without any--and Wonk means ANY--other consistent scoring threat on his team. What a gamer. Prodigious and efficient scorers Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan guard Daniel Horton entered a guilty plea to a misdemeanor count of domestic violence yesterday. Sentencing is scheduled for March 9. Under the statute Horton could face a maximum of 93 days in jail and a $500 fine. As a 20-year-old, however, Horton qualifies as a "Youthful Trainee" and could be sentenced to probation instead of jail time. Coach Tommy Amaker says any decision on the timing of Horton's reinstatement will be a university decision and not his alone. (Links here, here, and here.)
Northwestern beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 59-51 in Evanston last night. (Link here.)
As noted above, Ohio State hosts Indiana tonight in Columbus. Still recovering from a sprained ankle, Hoosier guard Bracey Wright is, as always, listed as questionable for tonight's game. IU has won just one game outside Bloomington this year, their double-overtime victory at Purdue on January 15. As for the Buckeyes, Bruce Hooley of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says the sizzle has gone out of this once storied rivalry--and he has the proof: nearly 4,000 seats still available for tonight's game.
Iowa coach Steve Alford says he doesn't know if he's meeting with Pierre Pierce today or not. Pierce is appealing his dismissal from the team and the first step in the appeal process is a meeting with Alford....Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News looks at the Hawkeyes' chances to make the tournament here....Profile of Greg Brunner here....Freshman Alex Thompson will again start in place of Erek Hansen when the Hawkeyes play at Purdue tomorrow night. But just who is this Alex Thompson? Busy Wonk readers demand analysis! Stats! Insight! Here ya go: "He bounds around the court with the energy of a puppy--a Great Dane puppy who's all arms and legs and bouncing at his good fortune to come upon others who want to play." (Tomorrow! Why Jeff Horner is so like a Central Asian Ovtcharka!)
In the wake of two consecutive losses, Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he's worried about his team wearing down. "I don't think there's any question we're tired," he says.
At .824 in conference, Michigan State is on pace to break the Big Ten record for free throw shooting percentage. The record is .806, set by Purdue in 1969.
Having looked at the tape, Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan says his assessment of the Badgers' loss at Illinois on Saturday remains the same: "A couple less turnovers, a few more free throws and they don't hit a couple of those long 3s as the shot clock expired and you have a heck of an opportunity."...Day-before-game Badger's-eye view of Michigan here.
Illinois (aka, the Sports Journalist Full-Employment Act). Copley News Service columnist Mike Nadel looks this morning at the recruiting battle over suburban Chicago guard Jon Scheyer. A junior, Scheyer is actually coached by Bruce Weber's brother. The young man is also getting calls, however, from a certain coach in Durham, North Carolina....Powellapalooza! Bruce Weber frets about Roger Powell's declining production here. And here. Profile of the ordained Pentecostal minister and undersized Illini power forward here. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper gets the final word on the matter here....Inveterate iconoclast Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald somehow wriggled free from the Powell meme: profile of Dee Brown here....Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Journal and Courier says that while he, like all Big Ten types, will be pulling hard for the Illini in the tournament, he doesn't "have a good feeling" about their chances to win the national championship. And for that he blames the rest of the Big Ten: "With one exception, Illinois has everything an NCAA champion needs. That exception is a rigorous conference schedule."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The Johnny Bravo school of scouting
Dear Wonk,
I'm a Badger fan, and I've missed a certain player this season (hint: he's getting sporadic playing times for the Mavs and he's not Michael Finley). This individual was a top-five pick last season, and while he was an outstanding player as a junior, I don't understand how Deron Williams, Luther Head, or Dee Brown are not forecasted at least as high as Harris. All I hear about the Illinois troika is that there's not a top round draft pick amongst them.
Really? What would make someone draft Harris fifth but turn up their nose at Brown, Williams, or Head?
Brian H.
Height, ball-handling, and shooting. As a sophomore in a losing effort in the NCAA tournament against top-seeded and number 1-ranked Kentucky, the 6-3 Harris made Wonk get up out of his chair and say "Wow!" as he repeatedly broke the formidable 'Cats down with dribble penetration. Head's 6-3: too little to be an NBA 3 and he hasn't functioned enough in his career in Champaign as a true 2 to make scouts wholly at ease there. Williams can become a high first-rounder if he displays a consistent outside shot. And Brown's 6-0.
Wonk is not proclaiming on these Illini's fates, mind you. Just parroting NBA scout-speak.
(But, again, Wonk comes back to the obvious: height. Think of it this way. Peoria product and current L.A. Clipper Shaun Livingston is a point guard who is as tall as Greg Brunner and taller than Roger Powell. Bingo, NBA.)
¶ 7:42 AM
Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin are in. Three other Big Ten teams are clinging to at least an outside shot of making it to the NCAA tournament: Indiana, Minnesota, and Iowa. This week, in addition to his usual prodigious musings, your intrepid blogger will look at each team's chances--unless one of them falls off the bubble before I post on them, in which case they will have saved me the trouble (insert Edna Krabappel voice here): ha!
(And yes, any team, including Penn State or Purdue, could win the conference tournament and get a bid. Duly noted. From now on this dreary pro forma acknowledgment will be acronymed for the fast-paced lifestyles of busy Wonk readers as ATCWCT.)
Today Wonk looks at those scrappy young Indiana Hoosiers.
Indiana (11-10, 6-4)
Remaining games:
at Ohio State (tonight)
at Michigan (Sunday)
vs. Purdue (2/22)
vs. Michigan State (2/27)
at Wisconsin (3/1)
vs. Northwestern (3/5)
Precisely as Wonk predicted! The Hoosiers are this week's topic A for those of us looking with increasing desperation for the occasional non-Illinois discursive space in the Big Ten. Just within the past 24 hours the little matter of Indiana's tournament worthiness has sparked: a lively discussion on the always lively comments board at Yoni Cohen's industry-standard College Basketball Blog; a coolly precise piece of analysis ("while Indiana has a shot if they go something like 5-1 down the stretch, I don't think they will, especially with Bracey Wright coming back"--ouch!) from the always coolly precise Ken Pomeroy; and even an encyclical from espn.com's pocket pontiff, Andy Katz. ("If they can take out Ohio State on the road then the discussion of Indiana as a possible NCAA Tournament team [can] begin." Egad! Wonk is noncompliant! Don't report me.)
Here's the deal with the Hoosiers: if they go, say, 4-2 the rest of the way they are the selection committee's worst nightmare--a profile from hell. Horrified hotel staff at whichever posh hostelry is hosting the committee this year may well see portly AD's running through the halls screaming with their hands above their heads. For when it comes to Indiana, all of the following descriptors could apply: 10-6 in conference (supposedly the gold standard--but so was 9-7 once) but just 15-12 (or so--depending on the Big Ten tournament) overall. An RPI up around the 80s (supposedly verboten). Undefeated in conference at home. Zero quality road wins.
Wonk says those descriptors could apply--this observer doesn't think they will. For one thing Wonk expects Michigan State to win in Bloomington, negating the claim of an undefeated conference run at home. And your intrepid blogger directs your attention to a surprising corner of the Hoosier schedule: the game at home a week from tonight against Purdue. The Boilermakers are actually playing better. Since starting 0-6 in conference they've gone 2-2. They will be up for this game (Gene Keady's last against IU). Carl Landry will be the best player on the floor. And the Hoosiers will be playing on one day of rest, caught between the Scylla of a CBS Sunday and Charybdis of an ESPN Tuesday. Keep an eye on this game.
Bottom line...um, for today: If the Hoosiers lose their nationally televised game tonight at Ohio State, watch for a round of well!-that's-the-end-of-that! talk. Know what? The talk will be correct--if Michigan State finishes the job with a road win a week from Sunday (and assuming, natch, that Wisconsin holds serve at home on March 1).
Forget PPG. Remember PPWS.
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat that not only measures scoring efficiency, it also captures more than just points from the field (unlike, say, points per shot or "PPS"). This stat takes in both FGA's and FTA's. It's points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by Wonk. Here are the latest Big Ten PPWS numbers:
Top 20 PPWS
1. Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (1.43)
2. James Augustine, Illinois (1.39)
3. Dee Brown, Illinois (1.36)
4. Luther Head, Illinois (1.33)
5. Carl Landry, Purdue (1.32)
6. Brent Lawson, Minnesota (1.30)
7. Jeff Hagen, Minnesota (1.28)
8. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.28)
9. Alan Anderson, Michigan State (1.26)
10. J.J. Sullinger, Ohio State (1.26)
11. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.26)
12. Adam Haluska, Iowa (1.25)
13. D.J. White, Indiana (1.25)
14. Aaron Robinson, Minnesota (1.24)
15. Chris Hill, Michigan State (1.23)
16. Roger Powell, Illinois (1.23)
17. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.22)
18. Clayton Hanson, Wisconsin (1.22)
19. Ivan Harris, Ohio State (1.22)
20. Greg Brunner, Iowa (1.21)
Bottom 20 PPWS
1. Ben Luber, Penn State (0.81)
2. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (0.81)
3. Nick Smith, Illinois (0.85)
4. Brandon McKnight, Purdue (0.85)
5. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (0.89)
6. Mike Henderson, Iowa (0.91)
7. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (0.93)
8. Ray Nixon, Wisconsin (0.93)
9. Dion Harris, Michigan (0.95)
10. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (0.96)
11. Andreas Helmigk, Wisconsin (0.96)
12. David Teague, Purdue (0.97)
13. Brandon Fuss-Cheatham, Ohio State (0.98)
14. Dan Coleman, Minnesota (0.98)
15. Erek Hansen, Iowa (1.00)
16. Xavier Price, Purdue (1.00)
17. Robert Vaden, Indiana (1.01)
18. Aaron Johnson, Penn State (1.01)
19. John Andrews, Michigan (1.02)
20. Geary Claxton, Penn State (1.03)
What it means. Give Kelvin Torbert 12 FGA's and six FTA's and he'll likely score about 21 points. Give Ben Luber the same number of shots and he'll likely score about 12.
What it really means. In his own ruminations, Wonk has taken to using PPWS not so much as a ranking but as more of a character reference. With all due respect to Kelvin Torbert and James Augustine, your intrepid blogger directs your attention to the next three names on the list: Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry. While scoring about 100 more points than Torbert or Augustine, these three are performing at virtually the same level of efficiency. Incredible. And Landry in particular merits a new adjective. This guy is not only scoring lots of points, he's somehow doing so efficiently without any--and Wonk means ANY--other consistent scoring threat on his team. What a gamer. Prodigious and efficient scorers Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan guard Daniel Horton entered a guilty plea to a misdemeanor count of domestic violence yesterday. Sentencing is scheduled for March 9. Under the statute Horton could face a maximum of 93 days in jail and a $500 fine. As a 20-year-old, however, Horton qualifies as a "Youthful Trainee" and could be sentenced to probation instead of jail time. Coach Tommy Amaker says any decision on the timing of Horton's reinstatement will be a university decision and not his alone. (Links here, here, and here.)
Northwestern beat Texas A&M Corpus Christi 59-51 in Evanston last night. (Link here.)
As noted above, Ohio State hosts Indiana tonight in Columbus. Still recovering from a sprained ankle, Hoosier guard Bracey Wright is, as always, listed as questionable for tonight's game. IU has won just one game outside Bloomington this year, their double-overtime victory at Purdue on January 15. As for the Buckeyes, Bruce Hooley of the Cleveland Plain Dealer says the sizzle has gone out of this once storied rivalry--and he has the proof: nearly 4,000 seats still available for tonight's game.
Iowa coach Steve Alford says he doesn't know if he's meeting with Pierre Pierce today or not. Pierce is appealing his dismissal from the team and the first step in the appeal process is a meeting with Alford....Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News looks at the Hawkeyes' chances to make the tournament here....Profile of Greg Brunner here....Freshman Alex Thompson will again start in place of Erek Hansen when the Hawkeyes play at Purdue tomorrow night. But just who is this Alex Thompson? Busy Wonk readers demand analysis! Stats! Insight! Here ya go: "He bounds around the court with the energy of a puppy--a Great Dane puppy who's all arms and legs and bouncing at his good fortune to come upon others who want to play." (Tomorrow! Why Jeff Horner is so like a Central Asian Ovtcharka!)
In the wake of two consecutive losses, Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he's worried about his team wearing down. "I don't think there's any question we're tired," he says.
At .824 in conference, Michigan State is on pace to break the Big Ten record for free throw shooting percentage. The record is .806, set by Purdue in 1969.
Having looked at the tape, Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan says his assessment of the Badgers' loss at Illinois on Saturday remains the same: "A couple less turnovers, a few more free throws and they don't hit a couple of those long 3s as the shot clock expired and you have a heck of an opportunity."...Day-before-game Badger's-eye view of Michigan here.
Illinois (aka, the Sports Journalist Full-Employment Act). Copley News Service columnist Mike Nadel looks this morning at the recruiting battle over suburban Chicago guard Jon Scheyer. A junior, Scheyer is actually coached by Bruce Weber's brother. The young man is also getting calls, however, from a certain coach in Durham, North Carolina....Powellapalooza! Bruce Weber frets about Roger Powell's declining production here. And here. Profile of the ordained Pentecostal minister and undersized Illini power forward here. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper gets the final word on the matter here....Inveterate iconoclast Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald somehow wriggled free from the Powell meme: profile of Dee Brown here....Jeff Washburn of the Lafayette Journal and Courier says that while he, like all Big Ten types, will be pulling hard for the Illini in the tournament, he doesn't "have a good feeling" about their chances to win the national championship. And for that he blames the rest of the Big Ten: "With one exception, Illinois has everything an NCAA champion needs. That exception is a rigorous conference schedule."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The Johnny Bravo school of scouting
Dear Wonk,
I'm a Badger fan, and I've missed a certain player this season (hint: he's getting sporadic playing times for the Mavs and he's not Michael Finley). This individual was a top-five pick last season, and while he was an outstanding player as a junior, I don't understand how Deron Williams, Luther Head, or Dee Brown are not forecasted at least as high as Harris. All I hear about the Illinois troika is that there's not a top round draft pick amongst them.
Really? What would make someone draft Harris fifth but turn up their nose at Brown, Williams, or Head?
Brian H.
Height, ball-handling, and shooting. As a sophomore in a losing effort in the NCAA tournament against top-seeded and number 1-ranked Kentucky, the 6-3 Harris made Wonk get up out of his chair and say "Wow!" as he repeatedly broke the formidable 'Cats down with dribble penetration. Head's 6-3: too little to be an NBA 3 and he hasn't functioned enough in his career in Champaign as a true 2 to make scouts wholly at ease there. Williams can become a high first-rounder if he displays a consistent outside shot. And Brown's 6-0.
Wonk is not proclaiming on these Illini's fates, mind you. Just parroting NBA scout-speak.
(But, again, Wonk comes back to the obvious: height. Think of it this way. Peoria product and current L.A. Clipper Shaun Livingston is a point guard who is as tall as Greg Brunner and taller than Roger Powell. Bingo, NBA.)
¶ 7:42 AM
Monday, February 14, 2005
And then there were six
Just six teams left still talking about NCAA bids. Three will certainly go: Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Any one or, possibly (but it's a stretch), two of the following three teams could also go: Indiana, Minnesota, or Iowa. As for Michigan and Northwestern, they officially fell into the abyss this weekend, the one where you have to win the Big Ten tournament to go to the big dance.
Illinois beat Wisconsin 70-59 in Champaign Saturday. Reading postgame accounts, Wonk was surprised to see how often this was referred to as an "ugly win" for the Illini. Let's come to a right understanding on this "ugly win" stuff once and for all, shall we? The win at Michigan was ugly because Illinois did not play well. Defense, on the other hand, is not ugly. Bo Ryan's teams--including this year's relatively undermanned edition--play defense. Badger opponents beware: this is a different team with a healthy Alando Tucker. The Badgers are on track to be under-seeded in the NCAA's and Wonk would love nothing so much as to see Wisconsin topple some overrated Sweet 16 opponent not used to seeing some strange quirky thing known as, oh, what's the word...defense.
As for the Illini, for those who say they like offensive execution Bruce Weber's team is doing things with screens that are truly instructional-clinic-video worthy. Recall the last time these two teams met and how one of the game's decisive plays came in the last four minutes on a beautiful middle cut by James Augustine: faking a screen on Deron Williams' defender and then cutting to the rim for the feed from Williams and the dunk, Augustine left Mike Wilkinson (no slouch on D he) and various parts of the Badger's athletic equipment helplessly and haplessly on the floor.
Similarly beautiful if less noticed was the teamwork between the same two players on Saturday on the second of two consecutive big three's drained by Williams early in the second half. Williams was on the right wing being guarded by Sharif Chambliss. Moving without the ball as though he were headed to the top of the key, Williams guided Chambliss into a screen set at the free-throw line by Augustine. Anticipating Williams' desired spot at the top of the key, Chambliss worked to go under Augustine's screen--and Augustine let him (kind of like a trap play in football) because Williams, meanwhile, had stopped dead in his tracks on the right wing and was now wide open for the three, which he sank. Nice.
And, of course, Luther Head continues to be the challenge for which Bo Ryan simply has no answer. Clayton Hanson is a solid player but Head's eyes get big every time he sees this match up, which is pretty much whenever Hanson's in the game. (Hanson, by the way, leads the conference in three-point FG percentage but it's noteworthy that, in both the games these teams have played this year, chasing Head around the court has reduced Hanson to total silence as an offensive option.) In two games against the Badgers, Head's averaging 22 points a game.
BONUS pedantic 20-20 hindsight. With 55 seconds left in the first half and Illinois up by three, Bruce Weber called timeout to diagram a play. The ensuing action revealed the Illini had intended to run an alley-oop to Head but the lob wasn't even attempted because: Hanson easily got through the screen Nick Smith was setting for Head at the top of the key and, besides, Zach Morley had left his man, Augustine, alone on the right wing (correctly diagnosing that Augustine was no threat out there) and was camped out in the lane to foil any lobs to the rim. Why weren't the roles of Augustine and Smith reversed? Augustine sets better screens and Smith's more of a threat from 17 feet.
Illinois-Wisconsin links. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Michael Hunt scoffs at those who still doubt Bruce Weber's team: "No one beats Bo Ryan twice, except the Illini. They broke the Badgers' 38-game home winning streak 18 days ago in Madison, and then eventually broke their will Saturday before a record-setting sea of orange at the old concrete spaceship Illinois still calls home." Mark Stewart, Hunt's colleague at the Journal Sentinel, says Wisconsin was "good on a day when they needed to be great." Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates tees up a postgame quote from a Badger in order to make a more substantial point: "'We know we can play with anybody in the country,' UW guard Sharif Chambliss said. 'It's as simple as that.' Actually, it's not quite as simple as that. You see, this season's outcomes also tell us that Illinois' perfect storm of a backcourt can take over a game at any time and UW, even at this late date in the season, doesn't have an antidote." Wisconsin forward Alando Tucker says simply, "You have to be as tough as cement when playing a team like this."
Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey says the Illini's "ability to win in different ways is one of the reasons Illinois is undefeated and No. 1. That's what North Carolina or Kansas or any other team is going to have to contend with in the NCAA tournament." Copley News Service columnist Mike Nadel compares Deron Williams to Raymond Felton, Chris Paul, Jarrett Jack and Travis Diener and comes to this conclusion: "Although those four--and probably a few others--have gaudier stats than Deron Williams and might (or might not) go on to have better pro careers, I wouldn't trade him for any of them in crunch time with an NCAA tournament game on the line." Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti says Bruce Weber "has whipped and polished these players into a better, crisper and more hardened team than perhaps even [Bill] Self would have produced." Indefatigable Sun-Times Illini beat writer Herb Gould says "only an upset of major proportions" can derail Illinois now. (Perhaps running out of new angles from which to cover these intensively-covered Illini, the Sun-Times grabbed former Michigan coach Bill Frieder--the one who lost twice to Illinois during the '89 regular season and was replaced for the tournament by Steve Fisher--and got his thoughts down on paper here.)
Following up on his very good Saturday profile of Bruce Weber, Pete Thamel of the New York Times files a recap on Saturday's game here. And Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline says "the Illini wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament" with their win Saturday. (Doyel still thinks Illinois doesn't shoot enough free throws, calling their FTA numbers "atrocious." Wonk has filed an amicus brief for the chill-out side of this particular dispute on more than one occasion but start here.)
Indiana beat Minnesota 71-56 Saturday in Bloomington. The Hoosiers cruised to a 15-point victory despite the fact that Bracey Wright (sprained ankle) did not play and D.J. White logged only 18 foul-plagued minutes--which tells you correctly that the Gophers not only missed out on a golden (har!) opportunity, they missed badly. Indefatigable Indiana beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star says this "was a big victory for IU." He's right: this was a match up that Wonk had called in advance "the weightiest game of the year so far in the Big Ten in terms of bubble-ish consequences." The Hoosiers are the only team in the Big Ten besides Illinois that has not yet lost a home game in conference. Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz looks to the future and declares himself "convinced [that] IU needs to win four of its final six regular-season games to ensure a bid" to the NCAA Tournament. He's right. (Additional Hoosier link here.) Meanwhile, indefatigable Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says while it's true "the Gophers lost by a bigger margin two weeks ago at No. 1 Illinois, this was the team's poorest performance and most complete loss of the season." BONUS insightful stat: Shelman also points out that in its last two games (both losses) Dan Monson's team has recorded more turnovers (38) than field goals (32).
Michigan State beat Michigan 64-49 Saturday in Ann Arbor. Detroit News columnist Bob Wojnowski says: "This wasn't a game. This was U-M clinging to MSU as long as it could, which wasn't very long. The Spartans' 64-49 victory Saturday was their 12th in 13 meetings in the series, which says it all." Wojnowski's colleague at the News, indefatigable Wolverine beat writer Jim Spadafore, says simply: "Michigan State's dominance continues." Tommy Amaker says the difference was the Spartans' transition game: "I'm disappointed in our inability to, kind of, put a damper in that part of their game. They got easy basket after easy basket early, put us on our heels." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says "these Wolverines were not impressive, even allowing for the absence" of Lester Abram and Daniel Horton. Schulz's colleague at the LSJ, indefatigable Spartan beat writer Joe Rexrode, forecasts State as being "a potential top-4 seed in the NCAA tournament." (Additional Spartan link here.)
Iowa beat Northwestern 64-54 in Iowa City. Adam Haluska had a nice post-Pierce line, putting up 20 points, eight boards, and five assists. "This is a very big win," Steve Alford said afterward of a home victory over the Wildcats. Oddly, he's correct: a loss would have dropped the Hawkeyes into the same forget-a-bid abyss that swallowed Michigan (and these selfsame Wildcats) this weekend. Preserving the eerie parallels to his own college coach (only without the wins), Alford failed to play Doug Thomas for so much as one second of game clock, saying after the game, "It's all on Doug. He's got to prove in practice he wants those minutes." Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register says the "once-ranked, once-struggling Iowa men's basketball team is alive and, for now, well." Pat Harty of the Iowa City Press-Citizen says, "It seems reasonable to think that an 8-8 Big Ten record would get Iowa into the NCAA tournament." Wonk disagrees, even though Harty's scenario would indeed give Iowa a nice 20-9 record overall. Your intrepid blogger feels 4-6 Iowa needs to win out, including and especially a victory over Illinois Saturday, to have a totally worry-free Selection Sunday. On the Wildcat side of the ball, coach Bill Carmody put it succinctly: "I thought we were sloppy," he said of his team's 17-turnover effort.
Ohio State beat Penn State 66-56 Saturday in State College, the day's only game without NCAA implications. Even in defeat, however, freshman Geary Claxton (14 points, 12 boards) continues to inspire dual reactions from this blogger: 1) great future; 2) what in the world is he doing at Penn State (i.e., what did Ed DeChellis put in Claxton's drink)? (Links here and here.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan guard Daniel Horton has a preliminary court hearing scheduled for today. If the charges pending against Horton are thrown out the Wolverine junior could in theory be back in action in time for Wednesday's game against Wisconsin. And if not, well, the scenarios fairly run the gamut. (Also in this link: Indefatigable Michigan beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News gets a jump on the competition and offers up his picks this morning for the 2006 Big Ten race: Michigan is the early favorite by Spadafore's lights.)
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline has this to say on the topic of bubble-ish teams: "You're not out, Minnesota--but you're no longer in, either."
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says he's neither as smart as his fans think nor as dumb as his critics say: "Ten days ago, we beat Michigan State and scored 12 [baskets] in a row, and I was called a mastermind genius. A week later, people are asking, 'What's happened to your offense?' Nothing. Teams are playing us different." (Weber also wins this week's Left-Handed Compliment Award for this characterization of his team and of one player in particular: "They have become much more cerebral. Even a Jack Ingram.") Dee Brown says the Illini are unsafe for opponents at any speed: "If you want to run, that's our game. We can play your style and slow it down also."
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One Gene Bartow reference per year
On Friday Wonk posted a link to an excellent article by Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times. Gould's piece niftily chronicled 30 years of Illinois basketball and did so in one convenient (big-) bite-sized package. Wonk's readers respond!
Thanks for the Herb Gould link. His article brought back to mind a question that I’ve never really been sure about, and that is this: “How in the hell did Gene Bartow get the UCLA job in 1975?”
I know he had taken Memphis State to the final game in 1973 (where they were Bill Walton’s punching bag for 40 minutes). I would assume that taking the Illinois job a year later would even then be considered a step up (MVC to Big 10). But how does an 8-18 coach in his first year at a new school, with no apparent ties to UCLA or even the region, get tapped for THE most prestigious job in the country, following a legend into a program that was coming off of their 10th title in 12 years?
I don’t know, just seems like any kind of real search by UCLA would have led in some other direction (possibly confirmed by the fact that he booked--or was pushed out? fired? not sure--just two years later).
Any recollection or knowledge of what happened there?
LOVE the blog.
Dave G.
Excellent question, Dave! You may recall, however, that Wonk studiously cultivates a showy ignorance of anything before last Saturday based upon a wholly irrational fear that he may otherwise start to sound like the eerily Mr. Burns-like Billy Packer ("that '54 Siena team beat Clyde Hartsetter and the Hussies in the Garden and went all the way to the quarterfinals in Shibe Park before falling to a very good Hofstra team," etc.).
So how 'bout it, alert readers? Are any of you Gould-esque Illini historians? Or perhaps--what's the euphemism--"50 or better"? Care to enlighten Dave and Wonk and the rest of us? Let's hear from you!
¶ 7:21 AM
Just six teams left still talking about NCAA bids. Three will certainly go: Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. Any one or, possibly (but it's a stretch), two of the following three teams could also go: Indiana, Minnesota, or Iowa. As for Michigan and Northwestern, they officially fell into the abyss this weekend, the one where you have to win the Big Ten tournament to go to the big dance.
Illinois beat Wisconsin 70-59 in Champaign Saturday. Reading postgame accounts, Wonk was surprised to see how often this was referred to as an "ugly win" for the Illini. Let's come to a right understanding on this "ugly win" stuff once and for all, shall we? The win at Michigan was ugly because Illinois did not play well. Defense, on the other hand, is not ugly. Bo Ryan's teams--including this year's relatively undermanned edition--play defense. Badger opponents beware: this is a different team with a healthy Alando Tucker. The Badgers are on track to be under-seeded in the NCAA's and Wonk would love nothing so much as to see Wisconsin topple some overrated Sweet 16 opponent not used to seeing some strange quirky thing known as, oh, what's the word...defense.
As for the Illini, for those who say they like offensive execution Bruce Weber's team is doing things with screens that are truly instructional-clinic-video worthy. Recall the last time these two teams met and how one of the game's decisive plays came in the last four minutes on a beautiful middle cut by James Augustine: faking a screen on Deron Williams' defender and then cutting to the rim for the feed from Williams and the dunk, Augustine left Mike Wilkinson (no slouch on D he) and various parts of the Badger's athletic equipment helplessly and haplessly on the floor.
Similarly beautiful if less noticed was the teamwork between the same two players on Saturday on the second of two consecutive big three's drained by Williams early in the second half. Williams was on the right wing being guarded by Sharif Chambliss. Moving without the ball as though he were headed to the top of the key, Williams guided Chambliss into a screen set at the free-throw line by Augustine. Anticipating Williams' desired spot at the top of the key, Chambliss worked to go under Augustine's screen--and Augustine let him (kind of like a trap play in football) because Williams, meanwhile, had stopped dead in his tracks on the right wing and was now wide open for the three, which he sank. Nice.
And, of course, Luther Head continues to be the challenge for which Bo Ryan simply has no answer. Clayton Hanson is a solid player but Head's eyes get big every time he sees this match up, which is pretty much whenever Hanson's in the game. (Hanson, by the way, leads the conference in three-point FG percentage but it's noteworthy that, in both the games these teams have played this year, chasing Head around the court has reduced Hanson to total silence as an offensive option.) In two games against the Badgers, Head's averaging 22 points a game.
BONUS pedantic 20-20 hindsight. With 55 seconds left in the first half and Illinois up by three, Bruce Weber called timeout to diagram a play. The ensuing action revealed the Illini had intended to run an alley-oop to Head but the lob wasn't even attempted because: Hanson easily got through the screen Nick Smith was setting for Head at the top of the key and, besides, Zach Morley had left his man, Augustine, alone on the right wing (correctly diagnosing that Augustine was no threat out there) and was camped out in the lane to foil any lobs to the rim. Why weren't the roles of Augustine and Smith reversed? Augustine sets better screens and Smith's more of a threat from 17 feet.
Illinois-Wisconsin links. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Michael Hunt scoffs at those who still doubt Bruce Weber's team: "No one beats Bo Ryan twice, except the Illini. They broke the Badgers' 38-game home winning streak 18 days ago in Madison, and then eventually broke their will Saturday before a record-setting sea of orange at the old concrete spaceship Illinois still calls home." Mark Stewart, Hunt's colleague at the Journal Sentinel, says Wisconsin was "good on a day when they needed to be great." Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates tees up a postgame quote from a Badger in order to make a more substantial point: "'We know we can play with anybody in the country,' UW guard Sharif Chambliss said. 'It's as simple as that.' Actually, it's not quite as simple as that. You see, this season's outcomes also tell us that Illinois' perfect storm of a backcourt can take over a game at any time and UW, even at this late date in the season, doesn't have an antidote." Wisconsin forward Alando Tucker says simply, "You have to be as tough as cement when playing a team like this."
Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey says the Illini's "ability to win in different ways is one of the reasons Illinois is undefeated and No. 1. That's what North Carolina or Kansas or any other team is going to have to contend with in the NCAA tournament." Copley News Service columnist Mike Nadel compares Deron Williams to Raymond Felton, Chris Paul, Jarrett Jack and Travis Diener and comes to this conclusion: "Although those four--and probably a few others--have gaudier stats than Deron Williams and might (or might not) go on to have better pro careers, I wouldn't trade him for any of them in crunch time with an NCAA tournament game on the line." Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti says Bruce Weber "has whipped and polished these players into a better, crisper and more hardened team than perhaps even [Bill] Self would have produced." Indefatigable Sun-Times Illini beat writer Herb Gould says "only an upset of major proportions" can derail Illinois now. (Perhaps running out of new angles from which to cover these intensively-covered Illini, the Sun-Times grabbed former Michigan coach Bill Frieder--the one who lost twice to Illinois during the '89 regular season and was replaced for the tournament by Steve Fisher--and got his thoughts down on paper here.)
Following up on his very good Saturday profile of Bruce Weber, Pete Thamel of the New York Times files a recap on Saturday's game here. And Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline says "the Illini wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament" with their win Saturday. (Doyel still thinks Illinois doesn't shoot enough free throws, calling their FTA numbers "atrocious." Wonk has filed an amicus brief for the chill-out side of this particular dispute on more than one occasion but start here.)
Indiana beat Minnesota 71-56 Saturday in Bloomington. The Hoosiers cruised to a 15-point victory despite the fact that Bracey Wright (sprained ankle) did not play and D.J. White logged only 18 foul-plagued minutes--which tells you correctly that the Gophers not only missed out on a golden (har!) opportunity, they missed badly. Indefatigable Indiana beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star says this "was a big victory for IU." He's right: this was a match up that Wonk had called in advance "the weightiest game of the year so far in the Big Ten in terms of bubble-ish consequences." The Hoosiers are the only team in the Big Ten besides Illinois that has not yet lost a home game in conference. Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz looks to the future and declares himself "convinced [that] IU needs to win four of its final six regular-season games to ensure a bid" to the NCAA Tournament. He's right. (Additional Hoosier link here.) Meanwhile, indefatigable Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune says while it's true "the Gophers lost by a bigger margin two weeks ago at No. 1 Illinois, this was the team's poorest performance and most complete loss of the season." BONUS insightful stat: Shelman also points out that in its last two games (both losses) Dan Monson's team has recorded more turnovers (38) than field goals (32).
Michigan State beat Michigan 64-49 Saturday in Ann Arbor. Detroit News columnist Bob Wojnowski says: "This wasn't a game. This was U-M clinging to MSU as long as it could, which wasn't very long. The Spartans' 64-49 victory Saturday was their 12th in 13 meetings in the series, which says it all." Wojnowski's colleague at the News, indefatigable Wolverine beat writer Jim Spadafore, says simply: "Michigan State's dominance continues." Tommy Amaker says the difference was the Spartans' transition game: "I'm disappointed in our inability to, kind of, put a damper in that part of their game. They got easy basket after easy basket early, put us on our heels." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says "these Wolverines were not impressive, even allowing for the absence" of Lester Abram and Daniel Horton. Schulz's colleague at the LSJ, indefatigable Spartan beat writer Joe Rexrode, forecasts State as being "a potential top-4 seed in the NCAA tournament." (Additional Spartan link here.)
Iowa beat Northwestern 64-54 in Iowa City. Adam Haluska had a nice post-Pierce line, putting up 20 points, eight boards, and five assists. "This is a very big win," Steve Alford said afterward of a home victory over the Wildcats. Oddly, he's correct: a loss would have dropped the Hawkeyes into the same forget-a-bid abyss that swallowed Michigan (and these selfsame Wildcats) this weekend. Preserving the eerie parallels to his own college coach (only without the wins), Alford failed to play Doug Thomas for so much as one second of game clock, saying after the game, "It's all on Doug. He's got to prove in practice he wants those minutes." Randy Peterson of the Des Moines Register says the "once-ranked, once-struggling Iowa men's basketball team is alive and, for now, well." Pat Harty of the Iowa City Press-Citizen says, "It seems reasonable to think that an 8-8 Big Ten record would get Iowa into the NCAA tournament." Wonk disagrees, even though Harty's scenario would indeed give Iowa a nice 20-9 record overall. Your intrepid blogger feels 4-6 Iowa needs to win out, including and especially a victory over Illinois Saturday, to have a totally worry-free Selection Sunday. On the Wildcat side of the ball, coach Bill Carmody put it succinctly: "I thought we were sloppy," he said of his team's 17-turnover effort.
Ohio State beat Penn State 66-56 Saturday in State College, the day's only game without NCAA implications. Even in defeat, however, freshman Geary Claxton (14 points, 12 boards) continues to inspire dual reactions from this blogger: 1) great future; 2) what in the world is he doing at Penn State (i.e., what did Ed DeChellis put in Claxton's drink)? (Links here and here.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan guard Daniel Horton has a preliminary court hearing scheduled for today. If the charges pending against Horton are thrown out the Wolverine junior could in theory be back in action in time for Wednesday's game against Wisconsin. And if not, well, the scenarios fairly run the gamut. (Also in this link: Indefatigable Michigan beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News gets a jump on the competition and offers up his picks this morning for the 2006 Big Ten race: Michigan is the early favorite by Spadafore's lights.)
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline has this to say on the topic of bubble-ish teams: "You're not out, Minnesota--but you're no longer in, either."
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says he's neither as smart as his fans think nor as dumb as his critics say: "Ten days ago, we beat Michigan State and scored 12 [baskets] in a row, and I was called a mastermind genius. A week later, people are asking, 'What's happened to your offense?' Nothing. Teams are playing us different." (Weber also wins this week's Left-Handed Compliment Award for this characterization of his team and of one player in particular: "They have become much more cerebral. Even a Jack Ingram.") Dee Brown says the Illini are unsafe for opponents at any speed: "If you want to run, that's our game. We can play your style and slow it down also."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
One Gene Bartow reference per year
On Friday Wonk posted a link to an excellent article by Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times. Gould's piece niftily chronicled 30 years of Illinois basketball and did so in one convenient (big-) bite-sized package. Wonk's readers respond!
Thanks for the Herb Gould link. His article brought back to mind a question that I’ve never really been sure about, and that is this: “How in the hell did Gene Bartow get the UCLA job in 1975?”
I know he had taken Memphis State to the final game in 1973 (where they were Bill Walton’s punching bag for 40 minutes). I would assume that taking the Illinois job a year later would even then be considered a step up (MVC to Big 10). But how does an 8-18 coach in his first year at a new school, with no apparent ties to UCLA or even the region, get tapped for THE most prestigious job in the country, following a legend into a program that was coming off of their 10th title in 12 years?
I don’t know, just seems like any kind of real search by UCLA would have led in some other direction (possibly confirmed by the fact that he booked--or was pushed out? fired? not sure--just two years later).
Any recollection or knowledge of what happened there?
LOVE the blog.
Dave G.
Excellent question, Dave! You may recall, however, that Wonk studiously cultivates a showy ignorance of anything before last Saturday based upon a wholly irrational fear that he may otherwise start to sound like the eerily Mr. Burns-like Billy Packer ("that '54 Siena team beat Clyde Hartsetter and the Hussies in the Garden and went all the way to the quarterfinals in Shibe Park before falling to a very good Hofstra team," etc.).
So how 'bout it, alert readers? Are any of you Gould-esque Illini historians? Or perhaps--what's the euphemism--"50 or better"? Care to enlighten Dave and Wonk and the rest of us? Let's hear from you!
¶ 7:21 AM
Saturday, February 12, 2005
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
It's official: Illinois is a media phenomenon. The gray lady herself has taken notice, as seen in today's profile of coach Bruce Weber in the New York Times.
Illinois hosts Wisconsin today in Champaign. Badger forward Zach Morley is questionable for today's game, having missed all of Wednesday's game against Iowa with an injured leg. Wisconsin big man Brian Butch is still out with mononucleosis. Mark Stewart of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says the Badgers "appear to represent the last big hurdle remaining between Illinois and the Big Ten's first undefeated regular season since Knight's Hoosiers accomplished it." Profile of Wisconsin forward and Joliet, IL, product Alando Tucker here.
Over on the Illinois side of the ball, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper points out that this time it's Illinois that has a nation's-best winning streak on the line in an Illini-Badger game, having won 24 straight games....Bruce Weber downplays the notion that he's lost faith in his bench and instead chalks up the lack of PT for Rich McBride and Nick Smith in the Michigan game to the style of play executed by the Wolverines that night. "When the other team holds the ball, there are fewer possessions. You can play longer."...Does Weber really care, deep down, about running the table, even though he says he doesn't? Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald considers the possibility here....Most importantly, after last year's widely discussed color-clash in the Wisconsin-Illinois game in Champaign (Badgers in red, Illini in orange), Illinois has announced they will wear their seldom-seen white jerseys in today's game....He's made 24 of his last 32 shots: Profiles of James Augustine here and here.
Indiana hosts Minnesota today in Bloomington, a game Wonk has called "the weightiest game of the year so far in the Big Ten in terms of bubble-ish consequences." The Hoosiers and the Gophers are tied in the loss column for fourth in the conference. A fourth-place finish is much more likely to get an invitation to the big dance than is a fifth-place record. A win for Minnesota would be especially huge given that it'd be a road win and that the Gophers have to go to Michigan State for their next game. Dan Monson says his Gophers simply "have to go back to who we are." For Indiana, Bracey Wright is listed as doubtful, having sprained his ankle in last week's Penn State game.
Michigan hosts Michigan State today in Ann Arbor. Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg puts Michigan coach Tommy Amaker's numbers over four seasons next to former Wolverine coach Brian Ellerbee's numbers over the same span and finds less difference than one might imagine. Eerily similar Amaker summa here from the Detroit News. Profile of Michigan big man Graham Brown here. Profile of new Michigan State starter Drew Neitzel here. Spartan guard Chris Hill needs 40 more three-pointers this year to become the leading three-point shooter in Big Ten history.
Penn State hosts Ohio State today in State College. In recent games Buckeye coach Thad Matta has replaced his starting backcourt of Tony Stockman and Brandon Fuss-Cheatham with new starters Jamar Butler and Je'Kel Foster. Stockman does his best to sound supportive here. (More on PSU-OSU here.)
Iowa hosts Northwestern tonight in Iowa City. Wildcat big man Mike Thompson will not play due to an injured foot. Hawkeye coach Steve Alford says an Iowa win today is "crucial and necessary." Northwestern has won three straight against the Hawkeyes. Adam Rittenberg of the Daily Herald says the "Wildcats' recent mini-surge in Big Ten play is clearly linked to" their defense.
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Annoyed by all the Illinoise, day 3
On Thursday Wonk posted an email from alert reader William L., who said he was "so tired of hearing" that Illinois is the second coming of UCLA under John Wooden. Yesterday your intrepid blogger posted some readers' responses to William. Today we hear from longtime alert reader and die-hard Michigan State fan Shawn.
Wonk,
As the storm grows around William L.'s incendiary and probably widely-held thoughts, I figured I'd strike while the iron is kind of cooling down.
I come to you (and to William) as an Illini convert. Not because they're a great team, or because they beat UW, MSU, and Wake, but because it appears they are about to do the unthinkable: run the table in the Big Ten regular season. Winning ugly is not only a skill, it's an absolutely essential skill for champions and the Illini have got it. My beloved Cleaves-era Spartans had it something fierce, and the upshot is this: All Illini opponents know that regardless of the score with five minutes remaining, the Illini are almost certainly about to beat them. It doesn't matter if the game's in Madison, or if Illinois is shooting 30%, or if Nick Smith is on the court. The opponent's fate is virtually sealed.
To me, this "winning ugly" once in a while isn't indicative of a slump but rather of how a great team deals with life in the depths of the Big Ten season. Who cares about their gaudy assist stats and statement-game blowouts? It's the winning ugly that is going to take them where they want to go.
Regards,
Shawn M.
Thanks, Shawn!
In honor of Lincoln's Birthday, part 1
Wonk has a pet theory about our nation's 16th and greatest president: his rhetoric was at its most sublime when he was responding to a particular text, whether in reverence (the Declaration of Independence) or in critique (the words of Stephen A. Douglas).
In that spirit if not in that league, Wonk closes today's post with two exercises in assertion and rebuttal. First, here's William's email from Thursday, reprinted here in its entirety:
I am so tired of hearing that this team is the second coming of the Wooden Gang. They are a very nice top-ten type team, currently ranked second in the country by Sagarin. Their only monster game, against Wake, occurred at home. They beat Missouri by only six on a neutral floor, barely beat Iowa at home, had trouble with Purdue and would have lost last night if Michigan had not made unforced turnovers in the last ten minutes.
It is unfortunate if their conditioning is so bad that they cannot travel two hours and play twice in two days, but to excuse their performance based on that factor is tenuous. Illinois has no impressive out of conference road wins, unless you count Georgetown and have scored 60 or less in their last two wins. One Illinois paper defended their performance against a depleted Indiana team by noting that the Illinois had beaten Indiana by more than UNC, apparently not understanding the distinction between playing at home and on the road, perhaps understandable since the Illini seem to have a pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road.
I like this team. I think that they have great personality, especially Powell and I expect them to go at least to the Elite 8, if not win it all. But you know what? They really stank up the joint last night and they have several times this season. You call it an ugly win. No, Illinois played poorly and would have lost against better opposition. Lucky for them that they do not face the same level of competition that teams in the Big 12 and Big East face.
William L.
William's email has occasioned the following rebuttal from alert reader Matthew F.:
I feel that I must write to dispute, point by point, the email submitted by William L. regarding the Illini.
I will start by saying that I am an Illinois graduate and an unabashed Illini fan (I happen to live in Ann Arbor and attended the ugly win on Tuesday night, and was happy to get the win). I don't know where William's allegiance lies, nor does it really matter.
First, by using Sagarin or the RPI or any other "objective" measure to define the current ranking of Illinois is pointless. These rankings are clearly no more or less meaningful than the AP or Coaches ranking. When a factor such as strength of schedule is used to influence the ranking, it doesn't make it better. I could go on but the point has been made by others.
Second, it would be easy to go to any highly ranked team in the country and point to questionable wins or losses. Kansas barely beat Nebraska in Allen Fieldhouse and Iowa was, at the time of the Illinois game, one heck of a lot better than Nebraska. North Carolina lost to Santa Clara (RPI 131). Duke might have questionable wins, but they haven't played any road/neutral non-conference games of any note either.
Third, as everyone who watched the game could tell, the most important of Michigan turnovers down the stretch were hardly unforced as Dee Brown had three straight steals that led to fastbreak layups, and gave Illinois the lead.
Fourth, you'd be hard pressed to find a team in better condition than Illinois. The guards played an average of 39 minutes in that game and none of them looked fatigued, despite playing high pressure defense for the final eight or nine minutes of the game. It wasn't conditioning that caused the problems, it was a general lack of enthusiasm. They didn't appear to be concerned about how the game was flowing during the late stages of the first half and it led to poor shooting and poor execution on offense and defense.
Fifth, I defy William L. or anyone to better the following: Illinois has posted a 14-0 record against RPI top 100 teams, 10-0 vs. RPI top 50. Of those, 9 (top 100) and 6 (top 50) are road/neutral. Illinois has beaten Gonzaga, Arkansas, Georgetown, Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan, all in road/neutral settings. Who would you like to compare that to? Kansas, who didn't even leave Allen fieldhouse for their first 11 games? Duke who played only Oklahoma, in MSG? Kentucky, UNC, Syracuse? I can guarantee that there is only one other team in the country that might come close to that kind of record against top-level teams and that's Wake Forest (enough said). To imply that Illinois has "a pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road" is completely and utterly laughable.
Sixth, the Big East is a very solid conference and I would argue that it is tougher than all but the ACC. I still think that Illinois would be doing fine in the Big East as Georgetown is clearly a contender in that conference and Illinois did play them on the road and we know how that came out. The Big 12 is a different story. I haven't looked it up, but the Big 12 is not what I would consider to be a quality conference, any more so than the Big 10. Outside of Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, they're struggling. You're talking about a conference where Texas is dropping quickly and Texas Tech (the same Tech team that got BLOWN APART by Iowa) is a contender. Please, I would offer that Illinois would be doing as well as Kansas is in the Big 12, if only because they are undefeated as well (quick, who has Kansas played on the road in the Big 12 conference: Iowa State, Colorado, Baylor, Nebraska and Kansas State, not exactly a murderer's row
Is Illinois the "second coming of the Wooden Gang"? No, but I don't think anyone except William L. has said that they are. I think they are a very good basketball team who has met all of the challenges placed in front of them to date. To suppose that they would've lost Tuesday night against better opposition is to suppose that they would've played the same way against better opposition. As the season has shown, they've played better opposition both at home and in road/neutral settings, and the record is the same, undefeated.
"And that's all I have to say about that."
Matthew F.
In honor of Lincoln's Birthday, part 2
The whole point of having a blog, of course, is to give yourself the last word in all such lively discussions as this. But for some strange reason Wonk is feeling charitable this morning and so I'm going to give the much-critiqued William the final say. First, let's start off with Wonk's original response to William's email as seen in this blog's Thursday post:
William, Wonk loved your email because, although I suspect you might disagree, this blogger felt like you took a couple elements implicit in yesterday's post and, in Spinal Tap terms, turned up the volume to 11.
By way of explanation, your intrepid blogger herewith offers five easy theses on Illinois:
1. Illinois has recorded the best start of any Big Ten team for 29 years.
2. In light of (1) there are sure to be rhetorical excesses.
3. The egregiousness of (2) will peak in the aftermath of strong performances (e.g., road wins at Wisconsin and Michigan State).
4. Conversely, there will be rhetorical excesses to the opposite extreme after weak performances (see Iowa and Michigan).
5. Thank heaven this ain't football and it will all be settled definitively come April.
Wonk nails these theses to the blogospheric cathedral door, as it were, merely to suggest that the sentiments in your email, William, are largely propelled by Thesis 2--and on that score you and I can find much to agree on. Most notably, Wonk fully understands and yet at the same time becomes somewhat fatigued by the "road to perfection" meme. Your intrepid blogger is an Illinois graduate. Obviously I would be deliriously happy if the Illini went 39-0 and won the national championship. But you know what? Call me deranged but for some strange reason I feel like I would be deliriously happy if they went 38-1 and won the national championship. Or even (horror of horrors) 37-2.
(In closing, two emendations: Wonk bravely stands by his "ugly win" label for the Michigan game, pugnaciously defying any and all to show how it was neither "ugly" nor a win. This blogger sees no cognitive collision between "ugly win" and stinking up the joint. In fact, the two often go hand in hand. And Wonk always smiles when he sees the "nonconference road win" test employed. What's the best nonconference road win for any team in the nation this year? Maybe Gonzaga's win against Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City. Though not played on the Cowboys' home floor in Stillwater, this game made a big impression on Wonk and on others. Only problem being: the Zags have since stunk up the joint, as it were, losing to the likes of Missouri, St. Mary's, and San Francisco. So include me out as far as making nonconference road wins the dispositive litmus test.)
Now, here is William's rebuttal to Wonk's response.
I really enjoyed your posting today. Just a few comments.
You are correct that I may have succumbed to this media fixation on "quality road wins." I am not sure if it is for monetary reasons or if it is "the same as it ever was," but very few teams in the top ten have impressive out-of-conference road wins. Perhaps, Kansas' win at Kentucky and Wake's win at Cincy are the two biggest that I have found. North Carolina plays at UConn on Sunday. It would have been interesting if the Illinois matchup with the ACC had been at Wake but it was not to be. Georgetown is not bad, but they are not really much of a danger. The Gonzaga win looked better at the time, but then again so did UNC's win at Indiana. Because Wake has not played at North Carolina or Duke yet, it is impossible to determine whether or not they are a "bad" road team. They have lost on the road to soft Georgia Tech and Florida State teams. It may be that Illinois does not need the extra test since they are likely to be playing close to home, but it is good to see different playing styles.
Second, in some ways, the polls do a better job of picking the top team than the tournament. For example, if Illinois comes out of the Big Ten undefeated and ranked number 1, they probably are the best team this year. Now let's see what happens in the tournament. I will give them a 99% chance of winning the first game, followed by an 88% chance, then a 77% in the 3rd, down to 55% in each of the final four games. Now I know that odds will vary, but for illustrative purposes we get (.99*.88*.77*.66*.55*.55)= .13. Thus, it is quite unlikely that the NCAA tournament will crown the "correct" team, unless the talent disparity they possess is extreme, something rarely happening since 1976.
Although we did not get many Big Ten games in my area in 1989, Illinois was probably the best team that year. North Carolina was number one every single week in 1984, and Duke most of 1999, but the winners those years, Michigan and Georgetown and Connecticut were not that far behind those teams.
What the single elimination tournament does do well is make sure mediocre teams are not crowned national champions. Thus, at some point, the Illini are likely to get a true test of their meddle and the rest of us will just have to wait. Many of us basketball fans sure wish there was a Fab 5 or even a decent Bobby Knight team to see them play against in conference, however. I also note that after Carolina's implosion against Duke, Illinois has nudged slightly back ahead in Sagarin.
Finally, as a point of logic, you are unassailably correct that something can be ugly and stink at the same time.
Regards,
William L.
BONUS unsolicited suggestion for a Lincoln's Birthday activity
Crack open that Lincoln anthology (both the Library of America collection and the Basler compilation are arranged chronologically) and read. Just open the book to anything between, say, 1854 (the Peoria Speech) and early 1860 (Cooper Union). Wonk will be joining you, even on a busy Big Ten hoops day.
¶ 8:23 AM
It's official: Illinois is a media phenomenon. The gray lady herself has taken notice, as seen in today's profile of coach Bruce Weber in the New York Times.
Illinois hosts Wisconsin today in Champaign. Badger forward Zach Morley is questionable for today's game, having missed all of Wednesday's game against Iowa with an injured leg. Wisconsin big man Brian Butch is still out with mononucleosis. Mark Stewart of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel says the Badgers "appear to represent the last big hurdle remaining between Illinois and the Big Ten's first undefeated regular season since Knight's Hoosiers accomplished it." Profile of Wisconsin forward and Joliet, IL, product Alando Tucker here.
Over on the Illinois side of the ball, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper points out that this time it's Illinois that has a nation's-best winning streak on the line in an Illini-Badger game, having won 24 straight games....Bruce Weber downplays the notion that he's lost faith in his bench and instead chalks up the lack of PT for Rich McBride and Nick Smith in the Michigan game to the style of play executed by the Wolverines that night. "When the other team holds the ball, there are fewer possessions. You can play longer."...Does Weber really care, deep down, about running the table, even though he says he doesn't? Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald considers the possibility here....Most importantly, after last year's widely discussed color-clash in the Wisconsin-Illinois game in Champaign (Badgers in red, Illini in orange), Illinois has announced they will wear their seldom-seen white jerseys in today's game....He's made 24 of his last 32 shots: Profiles of James Augustine here and here.
Indiana hosts Minnesota today in Bloomington, a game Wonk has called "the weightiest game of the year so far in the Big Ten in terms of bubble-ish consequences." The Hoosiers and the Gophers are tied in the loss column for fourth in the conference. A fourth-place finish is much more likely to get an invitation to the big dance than is a fifth-place record. A win for Minnesota would be especially huge given that it'd be a road win and that the Gophers have to go to Michigan State for their next game. Dan Monson says his Gophers simply "have to go back to who we are." For Indiana, Bracey Wright is listed as doubtful, having sprained his ankle in last week's Penn State game.
Michigan hosts Michigan State today in Ann Arbor. Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg puts Michigan coach Tommy Amaker's numbers over four seasons next to former Wolverine coach Brian Ellerbee's numbers over the same span and finds less difference than one might imagine. Eerily similar Amaker summa here from the Detroit News. Profile of Michigan big man Graham Brown here. Profile of new Michigan State starter Drew Neitzel here. Spartan guard Chris Hill needs 40 more three-pointers this year to become the leading three-point shooter in Big Ten history.
Penn State hosts Ohio State today in State College. In recent games Buckeye coach Thad Matta has replaced his starting backcourt of Tony Stockman and Brandon Fuss-Cheatham with new starters Jamar Butler and Je'Kel Foster. Stockman does his best to sound supportive here. (More on PSU-OSU here.)
Iowa hosts Northwestern tonight in Iowa City. Wildcat big man Mike Thompson will not play due to an injured foot. Hawkeye coach Steve Alford says an Iowa win today is "crucial and necessary." Northwestern has won three straight against the Hawkeyes. Adam Rittenberg of the Daily Herald says the "Wildcats' recent mini-surge in Big Ten play is clearly linked to" their defense.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Annoyed by all the Illinoise, day 3
On Thursday Wonk posted an email from alert reader William L., who said he was "so tired of hearing" that Illinois is the second coming of UCLA under John Wooden. Yesterday your intrepid blogger posted some readers' responses to William. Today we hear from longtime alert reader and die-hard Michigan State fan Shawn.
Wonk,
As the storm grows around William L.'s incendiary and probably widely-held thoughts, I figured I'd strike while the iron is kind of cooling down.
I come to you (and to William) as an Illini convert. Not because they're a great team, or because they beat UW, MSU, and Wake, but because it appears they are about to do the unthinkable: run the table in the Big Ten regular season. Winning ugly is not only a skill, it's an absolutely essential skill for champions and the Illini have got it. My beloved Cleaves-era Spartans had it something fierce, and the upshot is this: All Illini opponents know that regardless of the score with five minutes remaining, the Illini are almost certainly about to beat them. It doesn't matter if the game's in Madison, or if Illinois is shooting 30%, or if Nick Smith is on the court. The opponent's fate is virtually sealed.
To me, this "winning ugly" once in a while isn't indicative of a slump but rather of how a great team deals with life in the depths of the Big Ten season. Who cares about their gaudy assist stats and statement-game blowouts? It's the winning ugly that is going to take them where they want to go.
Regards,
Shawn M.
Thanks, Shawn!
In honor of Lincoln's Birthday, part 1
Wonk has a pet theory about our nation's 16th and greatest president: his rhetoric was at its most sublime when he was responding to a particular text, whether in reverence (the Declaration of Independence) or in critique (the words of Stephen A. Douglas).
In that spirit if not in that league, Wonk closes today's post with two exercises in assertion and rebuttal. First, here's William's email from Thursday, reprinted here in its entirety:
I am so tired of hearing that this team is the second coming of the Wooden Gang. They are a very nice top-ten type team, currently ranked second in the country by Sagarin. Their only monster game, against Wake, occurred at home. They beat Missouri by only six on a neutral floor, barely beat Iowa at home, had trouble with Purdue and would have lost last night if Michigan had not made unforced turnovers in the last ten minutes.
It is unfortunate if their conditioning is so bad that they cannot travel two hours and play twice in two days, but to excuse their performance based on that factor is tenuous. Illinois has no impressive out of conference road wins, unless you count Georgetown and have scored 60 or less in their last two wins. One Illinois paper defended their performance against a depleted Indiana team by noting that the Illinois had beaten Indiana by more than UNC, apparently not understanding the distinction between playing at home and on the road, perhaps understandable since the Illini seem to have a pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road.
I like this team. I think that they have great personality, especially Powell and I expect them to go at least to the Elite 8, if not win it all. But you know what? They really stank up the joint last night and they have several times this season. You call it an ugly win. No, Illinois played poorly and would have lost against better opposition. Lucky for them that they do not face the same level of competition that teams in the Big 12 and Big East face.
William L.
William's email has occasioned the following rebuttal from alert reader Matthew F.:
I feel that I must write to dispute, point by point, the email submitted by William L. regarding the Illini.
I will start by saying that I am an Illinois graduate and an unabashed Illini fan (I happen to live in Ann Arbor and attended the ugly win on Tuesday night, and was happy to get the win). I don't know where William's allegiance lies, nor does it really matter.
First, by using Sagarin or the RPI or any other "objective" measure to define the current ranking of Illinois is pointless. These rankings are clearly no more or less meaningful than the AP or Coaches ranking. When a factor such as strength of schedule is used to influence the ranking, it doesn't make it better. I could go on but the point has been made by others.
Second, it would be easy to go to any highly ranked team in the country and point to questionable wins or losses. Kansas barely beat Nebraska in Allen Fieldhouse and Iowa was, at the time of the Illinois game, one heck of a lot better than Nebraska. North Carolina lost to Santa Clara (RPI 131). Duke might have questionable wins, but they haven't played any road/neutral non-conference games of any note either.
Third, as everyone who watched the game could tell, the most important of Michigan turnovers down the stretch were hardly unforced as Dee Brown had three straight steals that led to fastbreak layups, and gave Illinois the lead.
Fourth, you'd be hard pressed to find a team in better condition than Illinois. The guards played an average of 39 minutes in that game and none of them looked fatigued, despite playing high pressure defense for the final eight or nine minutes of the game. It wasn't conditioning that caused the problems, it was a general lack of enthusiasm. They didn't appear to be concerned about how the game was flowing during the late stages of the first half and it led to poor shooting and poor execution on offense and defense.
Fifth, I defy William L. or anyone to better the following: Illinois has posted a 14-0 record against RPI top 100 teams, 10-0 vs. RPI top 50. Of those, 9 (top 100) and 6 (top 50) are road/neutral. Illinois has beaten Gonzaga, Arkansas, Georgetown, Oregon, Missouri, Cincinnati, Wisconsin, Michigan State and Michigan, all in road/neutral settings. Who would you like to compare that to? Kansas, who didn't even leave Allen fieldhouse for their first 11 games? Duke who played only Oklahoma, in MSG? Kentucky, UNC, Syracuse? I can guarantee that there is only one other team in the country that might come close to that kind of record against top-level teams and that's Wake Forest (enough said). To imply that Illinois has "a pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road" is completely and utterly laughable.
Sixth, the Big East is a very solid conference and I would argue that it is tougher than all but the ACC. I still think that Illinois would be doing fine in the Big East as Georgetown is clearly a contender in that conference and Illinois did play them on the road and we know how that came out. The Big 12 is a different story. I haven't looked it up, but the Big 12 is not what I would consider to be a quality conference, any more so than the Big 10. Outside of Kansas, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, they're struggling. You're talking about a conference where Texas is dropping quickly and Texas Tech (the same Tech team that got BLOWN APART by Iowa) is a contender. Please, I would offer that Illinois would be doing as well as Kansas is in the Big 12, if only because they are undefeated as well (quick, who has Kansas played on the road in the Big 12 conference: Iowa State, Colorado, Baylor, Nebraska and Kansas State, not exactly a murderer's row
Is Illinois the "second coming of the Wooden Gang"? No, but I don't think anyone except William L. has said that they are. I think they are a very good basketball team who has met all of the challenges placed in front of them to date. To suppose that they would've lost Tuesday night against better opposition is to suppose that they would've played the same way against better opposition. As the season has shown, they've played better opposition both at home and in road/neutral settings, and the record is the same, undefeated.
"And that's all I have to say about that."
Matthew F.
In honor of Lincoln's Birthday, part 2
The whole point of having a blog, of course, is to give yourself the last word in all such lively discussions as this. But for some strange reason Wonk is feeling charitable this morning and so I'm going to give the much-critiqued William the final say. First, let's start off with Wonk's original response to William's email as seen in this blog's Thursday post:
William, Wonk loved your email because, although I suspect you might disagree, this blogger felt like you took a couple elements implicit in yesterday's post and, in Spinal Tap terms, turned up the volume to 11.
By way of explanation, your intrepid blogger herewith offers five easy theses on Illinois:
1. Illinois has recorded the best start of any Big Ten team for 29 years.
2. In light of (1) there are sure to be rhetorical excesses.
3. The egregiousness of (2) will peak in the aftermath of strong performances (e.g., road wins at Wisconsin and Michigan State).
4. Conversely, there will be rhetorical excesses to the opposite extreme after weak performances (see Iowa and Michigan).
5. Thank heaven this ain't football and it will all be settled definitively come April.
Wonk nails these theses to the blogospheric cathedral door, as it were, merely to suggest that the sentiments in your email, William, are largely propelled by Thesis 2--and on that score you and I can find much to agree on. Most notably, Wonk fully understands and yet at the same time becomes somewhat fatigued by the "road to perfection" meme. Your intrepid blogger is an Illinois graduate. Obviously I would be deliriously happy if the Illini went 39-0 and won the national championship. But you know what? Call me deranged but for some strange reason I feel like I would be deliriously happy if they went 38-1 and won the national championship. Or even (horror of horrors) 37-2.
(In closing, two emendations: Wonk bravely stands by his "ugly win" label for the Michigan game, pugnaciously defying any and all to show how it was neither "ugly" nor a win. This blogger sees no cognitive collision between "ugly win" and stinking up the joint. In fact, the two often go hand in hand. And Wonk always smiles when he sees the "nonconference road win" test employed. What's the best nonconference road win for any team in the nation this year? Maybe Gonzaga's win against Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City. Though not played on the Cowboys' home floor in Stillwater, this game made a big impression on Wonk and on others. Only problem being: the Zags have since stunk up the joint, as it were, losing to the likes of Missouri, St. Mary's, and San Francisco. So include me out as far as making nonconference road wins the dispositive litmus test.)
Now, here is William's rebuttal to Wonk's response.
I really enjoyed your posting today. Just a few comments.
You are correct that I may have succumbed to this media fixation on "quality road wins." I am not sure if it is for monetary reasons or if it is "the same as it ever was," but very few teams in the top ten have impressive out-of-conference road wins. Perhaps, Kansas' win at Kentucky and Wake's win at Cincy are the two biggest that I have found. North Carolina plays at UConn on Sunday. It would have been interesting if the Illinois matchup with the ACC had been at Wake but it was not to be. Georgetown is not bad, but they are not really much of a danger. The Gonzaga win looked better at the time, but then again so did UNC's win at Indiana. Because Wake has not played at North Carolina or Duke yet, it is impossible to determine whether or not they are a "bad" road team. They have lost on the road to soft Georgia Tech and Florida State teams. It may be that Illinois does not need the extra test since they are likely to be playing close to home, but it is good to see different playing styles.
Second, in some ways, the polls do a better job of picking the top team than the tournament. For example, if Illinois comes out of the Big Ten undefeated and ranked number 1, they probably are the best team this year. Now let's see what happens in the tournament. I will give them a 99% chance of winning the first game, followed by an 88% chance, then a 77% in the 3rd, down to 55% in each of the final four games. Now I know that odds will vary, but for illustrative purposes we get (.99*.88*.77*.66*.55*.55)= .13. Thus, it is quite unlikely that the NCAA tournament will crown the "correct" team, unless the talent disparity they possess is extreme, something rarely happening since 1976.
Although we did not get many Big Ten games in my area in 1989, Illinois was probably the best team that year. North Carolina was number one every single week in 1984, and Duke most of 1999, but the winners those years, Michigan and Georgetown and Connecticut were not that far behind those teams.
What the single elimination tournament does do well is make sure mediocre teams are not crowned national champions. Thus, at some point, the Illini are likely to get a true test of their meddle and the rest of us will just have to wait. Many of us basketball fans sure wish there was a Fab 5 or even a decent Bobby Knight team to see them play against in conference, however. I also note that after Carolina's implosion against Duke, Illinois has nudged slightly back ahead in Sagarin.
Finally, as a point of logic, you are unassailably correct that something can be ugly and stink at the same time.
Regards,
William L.
BONUS unsolicited suggestion for a Lincoln's Birthday activity
Crack open that Lincoln anthology (both the Library of America collection and the Basler compilation are arranged chronologically) and read. Just open the book to anything between, say, 1854 (the Peoria Speech) and early 1860 (Cooper Union). Wonk will be joining you, even on a busy Big Ten hoops day.
¶ 8:23 AM
Friday, February 11, 2005
EXCLUSIVE Wonk investigative report--CONTINUED! Shame of a Nation, Day 419
Long-time readers (i.e., those from before last week) may remember Wonk's dogged and tireless efforts a while back to get the Big Ten to remove an antiquated story on former Minnesota gunner Kris Humphries from the conference web site's main men's basketball page. After putting up hard-hitting posts here, here, and here, your intrepid blogger logged onto bigten.org one day and noted with smug satisfaction that the Humphries story was finally gone. Results at last! And so last December 9 Wonk declared victory and, as chance would have it, also took the time to compliment the members of the Pulitzer selection committee on what an outstanding job they do year in and year out.
UPDATE: But now the crack professionals on Wonk's Follow-Up Desk, aided immeasurably by the diligent sifting of alert reader Cliff A. (shout), have made a shocking discovery: "Q&A with Kris Humprhies" isn't gone, it's just moved! Here it is, still on the Big Ten website! When following this link, gentle readers, keep in mind two things:
1. Today is February 11, 2005.
2. This story was originally posted on the Big Ten website on December 16, 2003.
And so this blogger is moved to once again insert the following auto-text....
Meticulous can't-be-rushed antiquarians of the Big Ten's web content group, Wonk salutes you! In fact, Wonk thinks you've got a pretty sweet gig if your boss looks to you for new content only every 14 months or so. Watch for still more fast-breaking stories coming soon from the tireless scriveners at Big Ten HQ:
"Digger Phelps looks at undefeated number 1 team: 'They have no shot at the Final Four--Scott May's overrated'"
"A talk with John Wooden: Purdue sophomore says he welcomes repeal of Prohibition"
"Coach suffers dizzy spell, faints on court; 'I'm alright,' says Coach Naismith"
Bloggers on the march!
Yesterday's Philadelphia Inquirer carried a very nice story by Janet Paskin on the swelling wave of college hoops bloggers. Paskin dishes particularly good details on Kyle Whelliston (Mid-Majority), Yoni Cohen (College Basketball Blog), and Ken Pomeroy (Blah Blah Blah). These blogs require no hypertexting here from Wonk--they are canonical, as stated in perpetuity in Wonk's sidebar, and this blogger devours each of them daily as an avid reader.
Your intrepid blogger also landed a small mention in the Inquirer piece and indeed was interviewed by Paskin on Monday but, alas, my pearls of wisdom--and they were both numerous and epigrammatic, mind you--were left in the recycling bin next to the copy desk. Note to potential interview subjects: long detailed recountings of the time you stole the ball in the sixth-grade game and missed the layup because your trunks had fallen down do not, apparently, go over real well.
BONUS blog-watch note: Wonk notes with wholly unjustified smug pride that the very three bloggers that were declared "canonical" on this site a month or so ago were the same three that got the MSM ink in yesterday's Inquirer. Your intrepid blogger takes this awesome behind-the-scenes agenda-setting power very seriously. And so Wonk kindly directs your attention to Cort Basham's excellent Bracket Board, which yesterday had this to say on the subject of Duke-Carolina:
The ESPN All Stars defeated North Carolina 71-70. I haven't logged on to ESPN.com yet, because I know I'm probably going to see a picture of J.J. Redick walking on water while being crowned by the Pope, accompanied by a link titled, "Why J.J. Redick Will Be President in 2024" by Mike Patrick.
Wonk salutes Basham's three-legged stool of perceptiveness, wit, and, most importantly, grammatical precision, as seen in his correct spelling of the otherwise invariably misspelled "Redick." Well done, Cort!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The girlfriend of Michigan guard Daniel Horton told police she had been abused by Horton prior to the incident that allegedly occurred on December 10 and which led to Horton being suspended from the team. Horton has missed five games since the January 25 suspension. For those who, like Wonk, were puzzled over yesterday's odd silence after we'd been told that a preliminary hearing would be held in Horton's case Wednesday (possibly even resulting in his reinstatement to the team), it turns out that Horton's attorney missed the hearing due to a car accident. It's been rescheduled for Monday....In Horton's absence, Wolverine players say they want to bring the intensity they showed against Illinois to their game at home tomorrow against Michigan State. (For their part the Spartans expect Michigan to slow the game down tomorrow, just like Tommy Amaker's team did Tuesday against the Illini.)
Indefatigable Michigan beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News chips in with his weekly Big Ten report here. Jon Masson of the Wisconsin State Journal does likewise, here.
Profile of Michigan State senior Kelvin Torbert here. Speculation on whether the Spartans can win out here.
Indiana guard Bracey Wright is still hobbled by the injured ankle he suffered in the Penn State game last week. No date has been set for his return.
Seemingly oft-injured Minnesota big man Jeff Hagen sprained his right ankle late in Wednesday night's game against Northwestern and is listed as day-to-day. (Indefatigable Minneapolis Star Tribune Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman chips in with his excellent weekly review of the national college hoops scene here.)
Northwestern's players are still happily explaining their dramatic come-from-behind win at Minnesota on Wednesday night.
Profile of Wisconsin guard Kammron Taylor here.
There are days without Illinois games but no days without Illinois coverage. Frank Burlison of the Sporting News says Illinois is the real deal....Indefatigable Chicago Sun-Times Illini beat reporter Herb Gould wins this week's Leopold von Ranke Award for achievement in historiography with this excellent pocket history of the Illini basketball program's last 30 years....Illini players say they're not concerned if their wins are ugly. "As long as we keep winning,'' Dee Brown says, "I don't care what people say about how we're playing.''...Bruce Weber sums up his motion offense thusly: "I lose control; [the players] have freedom. Some coaches can't deal with it and can't run motion." (Token nod to the Illini D here.)...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says for the Illini the emphasis now "shifts from inventing game plans to tweaking them as top-ranked Illinois begins a six-game stretch against teams it already has played once."...Can-they-run-the-table coverage here....Profile of James Augustine here....Profile of Jack Ingram here....Fretting over the starters' minutes here....Illini miscellany here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Today is Friday and Wonk is more than happy to leave the brunt of the keystrokes to you, the alert readers. And so enjoy this special double-issue of Wonk-back!
Wonk is thinking seriously of declaring dictionary.com "canonical"
Wonk,
Rumor has it that hits at dictionary.com have gone up 10 percent since the start of the college basketball season.
After fondly noting the correct and appropriate use of "normative" on Wednesday, I gave in and was forced to look up "dispositive" on Thursday.
The basketball commentary is solid, too. Keep it up.
Robin F.
As a normative matter, it's your third paragraph, Robin, that Wonk aims for. Thanks for the kind words.
Being Steve Alford
Also yesterday Wonk likened Iowa coach Steve Alford and his teams' seemingly yearly conference swoons to those people who somehow uncannily suffer injuries or mishaps on the same day of the year every year. Wonk's readers respond!
Wonk,
I just wanted to send a note to thank you for your intrepid musings. I am an Illini grad stranded in the middle of the Hawkeye nation. Your coverage of everything that is Big Ten has saved me from the Orange-n-Blue information starvation from which I have suffered in years past. To top it off, you have to be one of the best writers I've come across. Today's "nails these theses to the blogospheric cathedral door" is a classic. Keep up the inspiring prose.
Since I am infested with all that is Hawkeye, I have my own musings on the Wonder-boy coach. I agree completely with your spin today....
Every year holds great promise for the Hawkeye nation, buttressed with stunning victories (from #1 UConn in Alford's first game as the Iowa head coach to Texas and Louisville this year), only to have those hopes dashed by inconsistent performances, unbalanced foul calling, injuries, and legal proceedings, none of which Alford will take any of the blame for.
He is a dangerous "one-game" coach. Somehow, every year he is able to motivate his players to outperform for a single game or series of games (e.g., the Big Ten tournament), but he has shown that he is unable to sustain that level of performance throughout the dreariness of an entire Big Ten season.
In my opinion, Alford suffers from a lack of a quality apprenticeship under a quality mentor head coach. Sure, he played under Coach Knight, but that was only for four years, but that was probably marred by the dreaded antagonistic coach to player relationship that so many of the Knight players seem to be victims of.
Keep up the great work.
Steve G.
Thanks, Steve!
Annoyed by all the Illinoise, day 2
Still more follow-through from yesterday! You may remember Wonk posted an email from alert reader William L., who said he was "so tired of hearing" that Illinois is the second coming of UCLA under John Wooden. Wonk's readers respond! (And, Wonk notes with interest, the first response comes from a Purdue fan, longtime alert reader Matt M., springing to the defense, kinda, of the Illini.)
Wonk,
William L's e-mail brought up some good points and he is correct in saying that this Illinois team will not be mistaken with any of Wooden's championship teams at this point.
However, some superlatives are in order for this Illinois team in that they have beaten everyone set before them and they have done so with virtually no frontcourt and no bench. Augustine is pedestrian at best and Smith is the proverbial box of chocolates. To say that they would lose against "superior" teams in other conferences is just speculation. Michigan beat ND at Crisler but the Irish beat BC on the same night Illinois got their ugly win at Crisler. Should we attach some sort of significance to that?
As time passes, people attach foggy remembrances of 40 minutes of perfect basketball every night to teams like the '75 and '76 Hoosiers. But there were a lot of narrow escapes for those teams, especially against some fairly average Purdue squads, natch, and not a very deep Big Ten. Illinois has hit a bad stretch but they are still undefeated, thanks largely to their guards running Weber's offense efficiently. There is something to be said for that no matter whom or how they play.
Matt M.
Thanks, Matt!
More from alert reader Dave C.:
Wonk,
Like you, I had to chuckle a bit at William L’s anti-Illinois harangue. You pointed out the most ridiculous argument he makes, the non-conference road win argument. How many Top 25-caliber teams have a pair of road wins like Arkansas and Georgetown. Kansas won at Kentucky but later they were thoroughly embarrassed at Villanova. Wake has a decent wins at New Mexico and Temple. Kentucky won at Louisville on a questionable play. Duke and UNC have no impressive non-conference road wins and UNC only traveled Indiana because they had to….and Illinois has the “pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road”?
William also fails to make a mention of the “other” four statement games that Illinois won, all of them by double-digits and none of them at home. That would be Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Wisconsin and Michigan State. He states that if Illinois played the way they played against Indiana and Michigan against better opposition, they would’ve lost. Well, I would contend, based on Illinois’ performances in the five “statement” games, that they wouldn’t play as bad against a better team.
The reason for the subpar quality play vs. Indiana, Iowa and Michigan was simply a lack of intensity against an inferior opponent with nothing to lose and everything to gain. People shouldn’t discard this out of hand. Illinois has received everyone’s best shot since they became #1 and they’ve passed every test. They’ve played in some very tough environments in the Big Ten, each of those opponents wanting to shock the world, most of the time on national TV. And all Illinois has done is send their fans home shaking their heads.
I don’t excuse these occasional struggles, and I think Illinois can work to improve their focus in these “dog days” games against “blah” opponents. But I think people are looking too hard to for reason to topple the King of the Mountain. It makes for “good ink,” which is fine with me as an Illini fan. The team can always use the extra motivation.
Dave C.
Thanks, Dave!
There's more but Wonk's going to call a timeout at this point and try a shameless marketing gimmick:
Tune in tomorrow for a point-by-point statement on William's email from alert reader Matthew F.
And we'll hear from the man himself, alert reader William L., as he responds to Wonk's response.
¶ 7:45 AM
Long-time readers (i.e., those from before last week) may remember Wonk's dogged and tireless efforts a while back to get the Big Ten to remove an antiquated story on former Minnesota gunner Kris Humphries from the conference web site's main men's basketball page. After putting up hard-hitting posts here, here, and here, your intrepid blogger logged onto bigten.org one day and noted with smug satisfaction that the Humphries story was finally gone. Results at last! And so last December 9 Wonk declared victory and, as chance would have it, also took the time to compliment the members of the Pulitzer selection committee on what an outstanding job they do year in and year out.
UPDATE: But now the crack professionals on Wonk's Follow-Up Desk, aided immeasurably by the diligent sifting of alert reader Cliff A. (shout), have made a shocking discovery: "Q&A with Kris Humprhies" isn't gone, it's just moved! Here it is, still on the Big Ten website! When following this link, gentle readers, keep in mind two things:
1. Today is February 11, 2005.
2. This story was originally posted on the Big Ten website on December 16, 2003.
And so this blogger is moved to once again insert the following auto-text....
Meticulous can't-be-rushed antiquarians of the Big Ten's web content group, Wonk salutes you! In fact, Wonk thinks you've got a pretty sweet gig if your boss looks to you for new content only every 14 months or so. Watch for still more fast-breaking stories coming soon from the tireless scriveners at Big Ten HQ:
"Digger Phelps looks at undefeated number 1 team: 'They have no shot at the Final Four--Scott May's overrated'"
"A talk with John Wooden: Purdue sophomore says he welcomes repeal of Prohibition"
"Coach suffers dizzy spell, faints on court; 'I'm alright,' says Coach Naismith"
Bloggers on the march!
Yesterday's Philadelphia Inquirer carried a very nice story by Janet Paskin on the swelling wave of college hoops bloggers. Paskin dishes particularly good details on Kyle Whelliston (Mid-Majority), Yoni Cohen (College Basketball Blog), and Ken Pomeroy (Blah Blah Blah). These blogs require no hypertexting here from Wonk--they are canonical, as stated in perpetuity in Wonk's sidebar, and this blogger devours each of them daily as an avid reader.
Your intrepid blogger also landed a small mention in the Inquirer piece and indeed was interviewed by Paskin on Monday but, alas, my pearls of wisdom--and they were both numerous and epigrammatic, mind you--were left in the recycling bin next to the copy desk. Note to potential interview subjects: long detailed recountings of the time you stole the ball in the sixth-grade game and missed the layup because your trunks had fallen down do not, apparently, go over real well.
BONUS blog-watch note: Wonk notes with wholly unjustified smug pride that the very three bloggers that were declared "canonical" on this site a month or so ago were the same three that got the MSM ink in yesterday's Inquirer. Your intrepid blogger takes this awesome behind-the-scenes agenda-setting power very seriously. And so Wonk kindly directs your attention to Cort Basham's excellent Bracket Board, which yesterday had this to say on the subject of Duke-Carolina:
The ESPN All Stars defeated North Carolina 71-70. I haven't logged on to ESPN.com yet, because I know I'm probably going to see a picture of J.J. Redick walking on water while being crowned by the Pope, accompanied by a link titled, "Why J.J. Redick Will Be President in 2024" by Mike Patrick.
Wonk salutes Basham's three-legged stool of perceptiveness, wit, and, most importantly, grammatical precision, as seen in his correct spelling of the otherwise invariably misspelled "Redick." Well done, Cort!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The girlfriend of Michigan guard Daniel Horton told police she had been abused by Horton prior to the incident that allegedly occurred on December 10 and which led to Horton being suspended from the team. Horton has missed five games since the January 25 suspension. For those who, like Wonk, were puzzled over yesterday's odd silence after we'd been told that a preliminary hearing would be held in Horton's case Wednesday (possibly even resulting in his reinstatement to the team), it turns out that Horton's attorney missed the hearing due to a car accident. It's been rescheduled for Monday....In Horton's absence, Wolverine players say they want to bring the intensity they showed against Illinois to their game at home tomorrow against Michigan State. (For their part the Spartans expect Michigan to slow the game down tomorrow, just like Tommy Amaker's team did Tuesday against the Illini.)
Indefatigable Michigan beat writer Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News chips in with his weekly Big Ten report here. Jon Masson of the Wisconsin State Journal does likewise, here.
Profile of Michigan State senior Kelvin Torbert here. Speculation on whether the Spartans can win out here.
Indiana guard Bracey Wright is still hobbled by the injured ankle he suffered in the Penn State game last week. No date has been set for his return.
Seemingly oft-injured Minnesota big man Jeff Hagen sprained his right ankle late in Wednesday night's game against Northwestern and is listed as day-to-day. (Indefatigable Minneapolis Star Tribune Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman chips in with his excellent weekly review of the national college hoops scene here.)
Northwestern's players are still happily explaining their dramatic come-from-behind win at Minnesota on Wednesday night.
Profile of Wisconsin guard Kammron Taylor here.
There are days without Illinois games but no days without Illinois coverage. Frank Burlison of the Sporting News says Illinois is the real deal....Indefatigable Chicago Sun-Times Illini beat reporter Herb Gould wins this week's Leopold von Ranke Award for achievement in historiography with this excellent pocket history of the Illini basketball program's last 30 years....Illini players say they're not concerned if their wins are ugly. "As long as we keep winning,'' Dee Brown says, "I don't care what people say about how we're playing.''...Bruce Weber sums up his motion offense thusly: "I lose control; [the players] have freedom. Some coaches can't deal with it and can't run motion." (Token nod to the Illini D here.)...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says for the Illini the emphasis now "shifts from inventing game plans to tweaking them as top-ranked Illinois begins a six-game stretch against teams it already has played once."...Can-they-run-the-table coverage here....Profile of James Augustine here....Profile of Jack Ingram here....Fretting over the starters' minutes here....Illini miscellany here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Today is Friday and Wonk is more than happy to leave the brunt of the keystrokes to you, the alert readers. And so enjoy this special double-issue of Wonk-back!
Wonk is thinking seriously of declaring dictionary.com "canonical"
Wonk,
Rumor has it that hits at dictionary.com have gone up 10 percent since the start of the college basketball season.
After fondly noting the correct and appropriate use of "normative" on Wednesday, I gave in and was forced to look up "dispositive" on Thursday.
The basketball commentary is solid, too. Keep it up.
Robin F.
As a normative matter, it's your third paragraph, Robin, that Wonk aims for. Thanks for the kind words.
Being Steve Alford
Also yesterday Wonk likened Iowa coach Steve Alford and his teams' seemingly yearly conference swoons to those people who somehow uncannily suffer injuries or mishaps on the same day of the year every year. Wonk's readers respond!
Wonk,
I just wanted to send a note to thank you for your intrepid musings. I am an Illini grad stranded in the middle of the Hawkeye nation. Your coverage of everything that is Big Ten has saved me from the Orange-n-Blue information starvation from which I have suffered in years past. To top it off, you have to be one of the best writers I've come across. Today's "nails these theses to the blogospheric cathedral door" is a classic. Keep up the inspiring prose.
Since I am infested with all that is Hawkeye, I have my own musings on the Wonder-boy coach. I agree completely with your spin today....
Every year holds great promise for the Hawkeye nation, buttressed with stunning victories (from #1 UConn in Alford's first game as the Iowa head coach to Texas and Louisville this year), only to have those hopes dashed by inconsistent performances, unbalanced foul calling, injuries, and legal proceedings, none of which Alford will take any of the blame for.
He is a dangerous "one-game" coach. Somehow, every year he is able to motivate his players to outperform for a single game or series of games (e.g., the Big Ten tournament), but he has shown that he is unable to sustain that level of performance throughout the dreariness of an entire Big Ten season.
In my opinion, Alford suffers from a lack of a quality apprenticeship under a quality mentor head coach. Sure, he played under Coach Knight, but that was only for four years, but that was probably marred by the dreaded antagonistic coach to player relationship that so many of the Knight players seem to be victims of.
Keep up the great work.
Steve G.
Thanks, Steve!
Annoyed by all the Illinoise, day 2
Still more follow-through from yesterday! You may remember Wonk posted an email from alert reader William L., who said he was "so tired of hearing" that Illinois is the second coming of UCLA under John Wooden. Wonk's readers respond! (And, Wonk notes with interest, the first response comes from a Purdue fan, longtime alert reader Matt M., springing to the defense, kinda, of the Illini.)
Wonk,
William L's e-mail brought up some good points and he is correct in saying that this Illinois team will not be mistaken with any of Wooden's championship teams at this point.
However, some superlatives are in order for this Illinois team in that they have beaten everyone set before them and they have done so with virtually no frontcourt and no bench. Augustine is pedestrian at best and Smith is the proverbial box of chocolates. To say that they would lose against "superior" teams in other conferences is just speculation. Michigan beat ND at Crisler but the Irish beat BC on the same night Illinois got their ugly win at Crisler. Should we attach some sort of significance to that?
As time passes, people attach foggy remembrances of 40 minutes of perfect basketball every night to teams like the '75 and '76 Hoosiers. But there were a lot of narrow escapes for those teams, especially against some fairly average Purdue squads, natch, and not a very deep Big Ten. Illinois has hit a bad stretch but they are still undefeated, thanks largely to their guards running Weber's offense efficiently. There is something to be said for that no matter whom or how they play.
Matt M.
Thanks, Matt!
More from alert reader Dave C.:
Wonk,
Like you, I had to chuckle a bit at William L’s anti-Illinois harangue. You pointed out the most ridiculous argument he makes, the non-conference road win argument. How many Top 25-caliber teams have a pair of road wins like Arkansas and Georgetown. Kansas won at Kentucky but later they were thoroughly embarrassed at Villanova. Wake has a decent wins at New Mexico and Temple. Kentucky won at Louisville on a questionable play. Duke and UNC have no impressive non-conference road wins and UNC only traveled Indiana because they had to….and Illinois has the “pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road”?
William also fails to make a mention of the “other” four statement games that Illinois won, all of them by double-digits and none of them at home. That would be Gonzaga, Cincinnati, Wisconsin and Michigan State. He states that if Illinois played the way they played against Indiana and Michigan against better opposition, they would’ve lost. Well, I would contend, based on Illinois’ performances in the five “statement” games, that they wouldn’t play as bad against a better team.
The reason for the subpar quality play vs. Indiana, Iowa and Michigan was simply a lack of intensity against an inferior opponent with nothing to lose and everything to gain. People shouldn’t discard this out of hand. Illinois has received everyone’s best shot since they became #1 and they’ve passed every test. They’ve played in some very tough environments in the Big Ten, each of those opponents wanting to shock the world, most of the time on national TV. And all Illinois has done is send their fans home shaking their heads.
I don’t excuse these occasional struggles, and I think Illinois can work to improve their focus in these “dog days” games against “blah” opponents. But I think people are looking too hard to for reason to topple the King of the Mountain. It makes for “good ink,” which is fine with me as an Illini fan. The team can always use the extra motivation.
Dave C.
Thanks, Dave!
There's more but Wonk's going to call a timeout at this point and try a shameless marketing gimmick:
Tune in tomorrow for a point-by-point statement on William's email from alert reader Matthew F.
And we'll hear from the man himself, alert reader William L., as he responds to Wonk's response.
¶ 7:45 AM
Thursday, February 10, 2005
Will the center hold?
Momentarily leaving aside the teams at the top of the conference standings (defined as three losses or fewer: Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin) and those at the bottom (defined as eight losses or more: Purdue and Penn State), Wonk wishes to direct your attention today to the Big Ten's vital center: six teams whose fates for 2005 (with the self-declared exception of Ohio State) are still yet to be placed with finality on the tournament or non-tournament side of the ledger. (And, of course, any team, including Penn State or Purdue, could win the Big Ten tournament and go to the big dance. Duly noted.) From bottom to top those teams are:
Michigan (12-12, 3-7)
Yes, yes, Wonk sees the alert readers scratching their heads and saying, "Michigan? Why are we even discussing this? They've lost seven in a row." Indeed they have. And yet if by some strange chance they were able to win out they would stand at 18-12 overall and 9-7 in conference--classic bubble numbers. Not bloody likely, to be sure: the Wolverines play at Wisconsin next Wednesday night. And first Tommy Amaker's team would have to take care of business Saturday at home against Michigan State--no mean feat, that. In other words, this, absent a win Saturday, is the last conceivable moment when Michigan can even rate inclusion in a discussion such as this. Tuesday against Illinois they shot the ball well and limited their own turnovers. (Even though the outcome swung on crucial second-half TO's coughed up by the Wolverines, statistically they had their best game in a long while in this category.) If they can bring that kind of elevated performance to teams that aren't number 1, they have their last minuscule chance to salvage their season.
Iowa (15-7, 3-6)
You know those curious cases where a person has some inexplicable and injurious mishap visited upon them on the same day every year? One year they go skiing and break a leg. The next year on the same day they're in a car accident. And the year after that on the very same day they spill some boiling water and burn themselves. Steve Alford's like that. Every year his team comes to the Big Ten season with high hopes--and some years, such as this one, those hopes are justified. And yet somehow every year those hopes are dashed. This year the Hawkeyes have shown surprising resilience without Pierre Pierce--but they have nothing to show for it, losing closely-contested games at home against Michigan State and on the road against Wisconsin (see below). They too are now in a position where they must win out to justify serious consideration for a tournament bid. Meaning they must win next Saturday when Illinois comes to Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Northwestern (11-11, 4-6)
The Wildcats did something last night they had not done all year, in or out of conference: they won on the home floor of an opponent, beating Minnesota 55-53 (see below). They need to do the same thing Saturday at Iowa and in two weeks at Illinois. Will they? No.
Ohio State (16-8, 5-5)
The Buckeyes, of course, will not go to the NCAA or for that matter the NIT due to self-imposed sanctions resulting from infractions that occurred under previous coach Jim O'Brien. But let us ask the parlor-game question (for this is what blogs do): will their record at the end of the year be such that they would have gone if not for their own preemption? It just might. Ohio State finishes the season with road games at Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa, and with home games against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Personally Wonk feels like the best the Buckeyes could reasonably hope for from that stretch is 4-2, which would leave them 20-10 and 9-7. Win a couple games in the Big Ten tournament and on paper you're a definite maybe. One prediction that is safe: if something like this does indeed play out, watch for much earnest debate over whether it was "fair to the kids in the program now" for Ohio State to impose its own postseason ban.
Indiana (10-10, 5-4)
With just four losses in conference as we approach mid-February, the Hoosiers are in a better spot than many would have thought possible a month ago. This Saturday's game against Minnesota in Bloomington is therefore the weightiest game of the year so far in the Big Ten in terms of bubble-ish consequences. A win for the Gophers rights the ship and puts them solidly on course for a tournament berth while painting Indiana into a must-win-out corner. Conversely, a win for the home team Saturday vaults Indiana ahead of Minnesota in the standings and would make the Hoosiers the "buzz" team du jour for those looking with increasing desperation for the occasional non-Illinois discursive topic.
Minnesota (16-7, 6-4)
See "Northwestern" and "Indiana" above: after their disastrous home loss last night to the Wildcats, Minnesota can recoup instantly with a win Saturday. And that's precisely what they need to do because their next game is also on the road, against Michigan State.
Big Ten Wonk: bravely quashing incipient urban legends in hoops since 2004
Wonk has noted with alarm a wholly erroneous and thus disturbing piece of ersatz insta-wisdom being passed around in the immediate aftermath of Illinois' ungainly 57-51 win over Michigan Tuesday night. It is being said of this game that the Wolverines "played zone."
Define "played."
Tommy Amaker's team used a zone defense on perhaps three Illini first half possessions (with questionable success--one of those possessions being Dee Brown's four-point play). In the second half Michigan, it's true, played one sustained period of zone defense but even this was only about four minutes in duration, from roughly the 15 minute mark to 11. (And this, of course, is precisely when Illinois made their move, going from eight down at the beginning of this stretch to two down at the end of it.) And then, somewhat oddly, the Wolverines played zone on one more possession at about the nine minute mark. After this, Michigan soon trailed and thus did not show the zone again. Thus by Wonk's conservative ballparking, Michigan showed a zone on perhaps 15 percent of the Illini's possessions.
Let us have no more of this hoary canard.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern beat Minnesota 55-53 in Minneapolis last night in a game eerily reminiscent of Iowa's disastrous loss to the Wildcats in Evanston on January 26. Like the Hawkeyes, the Gophers seemed in control late in the game, leading by ten with four minutes left. From that point forward, however, Minnesota attempted just one field goal and missed three of six free throws while coughing the ball up three times. For the game the Gophers recorded a generous 23 turnovers. (Gosh, maybe point guards are necessary!) Oddest box score of the year nominee: Vincent Grier scored 32 points; Minnesota outrebounded the Cats by 21; and the home team attempted 20 more free throws than the visitors--and yet Minnesota lost. (Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse thinks he may have seen "the first sign of overconfidence" last night in the Gophers--and they paid for it. Indefatigable Star Tribune Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman says the loss will leave a "mark that might last until mid-March." Equally indefatigable Minnesota beat writer Rick Alonzo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says the home team "met with a dose of reality in its first game since joining the Big Ten Conference's elite.")
Wisconsin beat Iowa 72-69 in Madison last night. In what is becoming a drearily familiar ritual, Steve Alford used his postgame comments after a close road loss to complain of a discrepancy in free throw attempts (35 to 14), even though his Hawkeyes were hacking intentionally the last couple minutes and thus tacked on a quick 10 FTA's for the Badgers right there. Iowa led this game by 13 with 12 minutes and change left in the second half but the Hawkeyes scored just two points over the ensuing eight minutes. BONUS note to Iowa opponents: the Hawkeyes are playing well without Pierre Pierce. Turnovers are down and shooting pct. is up. Cause-and-effect or post hoc ergo propter hoc? You make the call! (Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates notes the absence last night of Wisconsin's Zach Morley (injured leg) and Brian Butch (mononucleosis), as well as of Iowa's Pierre Pierce (Pierre Pierce) and says "the race to see who will finish second to Illinois is looking more and more like a war of attrition." Additional Badger links here and here. Hawkeye links here and here. Pierce update: the Iowa guard was arraigned yesterday on felony charges of burglary and domestic assault, among other counts of the indictment. Nevertheless, Pierce appears to be continuing with his appeal for reinstatement to the team. More wall-to-wall Pierce here and here.)
Michigan State beat Ohio State 83-69 in East Lansing last night. Spartan guard Chris Hill, benched by Tom Izzo at the start of the last two games, came in as a reserve and scored 26 points on 8-of-10 shooting. (Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says last night's most important win "took place inside Hill's head." George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press says "Hill needed only the first half against Ohio State on Wednesday night to shake a shooting slump that had lasted the first half of the Big Ten season." (Wonk says: verily, beware. Slumps don't end. They come and go as they please.) Additional Spartan links here, here, and here. Buckeye links here and here.)
Purdue beat Penn State 77-50 in West Lafayette last night. (Links here and here.)
There are off-days for Illinois players but not for Illinois beat writers. Columnist Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald says Illinois is winning as a team and without the benefit of a bona fide superstar. Jim O'Donnell of the Chicago Sun-Times says Illinois' six-point win over Michigan Tuesday night revealed three disturbing truths about the Illini: "The effectiveness of the Illinois bench is disappearing. The jump shot of Deron Williams is about as dependable as Iraqi currency. And the Illini remain subject to Orange Krush-rattling stretches of extraordinarily snoozy offense." Neil Milbert of the Chicago Tribune says "Bruce Weber is worried about his bench." John Supinie of the Copley News Service says Dee Brown is looking at the close call against Michigan as an opportunity to benefit from "a teaching point without tasting defeat." On a more positive note, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that he's having a tough time filling out the ballot for the All-Big-Ten Team and that his "struggle to identify Illinois’ team MVP is a good sign, of course. It signifies balance, unpredictability and the trouble teams have in defending Illinois."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Annoyed by all the Illinoise
I am so tired of hearing that this team is the second coming of the Wooden Gang. They are a very nice top-ten type team, currently ranked second in the country by Sagarin. Their only monster game, against Wake, occurred at home. They beat Missouri by only six on a neutral floor, barely beat Iowa at home, had trouble with Purdue and would have lost last night if Michigan had not made unforced turnovers in the last ten minutes.
It is unfortunate if their conditioning is so bad that they cannot travel two hours and play twice in two days but to excuse their performance based on that factor is tenuous. Illinois has no impressive out-of-conference road wins, unless you count Georgetown, and have scored 60 or less in their last two wins. One Illinois paper defended their performance against a depleted Indiana team by noting that the Illini had beaten Indiana by more than UNC, apparently not understanding the distinction between playing at home and on the road--perhaps understandable since the Illini seem to have a pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road.
I like this team. I think that they have great personality, especially Powell, and I expect them to go at least to the Elite 8, if not win it all. But you know what? They really stank up the joint last night and they have several times this season. You call it an ugly win. No, Illinois played poorly and would have lost against better opposition. Lucky for them that they do not face the same level of competition that teams in the Big 12 and Big East face.
William L.
William, Wonk loved your email because, although I suspect you might disagree, this blogger felt like you took a couple elements implicit in yesterday's post and, in Spinal Tap terms, turned up the volume to 11.
By way of explanation, your intrepid blogger herewith offers five easy theses on Illinois:
1. Illinois has recorded the best start of any Big Ten team for 29 years.
2. In light of (1) there are sure to be rhetorical excesses.
3. The egregiousness of (2) will peak in the aftermath of strong performances (e.g., road wins at Wisconsin and Michigan State).
4. Conversely, there will be rhetorical excesses to the opposite extreme after weak performances (see Iowa and Michigan).
5. Thank heaven this ain't football and it will all be settled definitively come April.
Wonk nails these theses to the blogospheric cathedral door, as it were, merely to suggest that the sentiments in your email, William, are largely propelled by Thesis 2--and on that score you and I can find much to agree on. Most notably, Wonk fully understands and yet at the same time becomes somewhat fatigued by the "road to perfection" meme. Your intrepid blogger is an Illinois graduate. Obviously I would be deliriously happy if the Illini went 39-0 and won the national championship. But you know what? Call me deranged but for some strange reason I feel like I would be deliriously happy if they went 38-1 and won the national championship. Or even (horror of horrors) 37-2.
(In closing, two emendations: Wonk bravely stands by his "ugly win" label for the Michigan game, pugnaciously defying any and all to show how it was neither "ugly" nor a win. This blogger sees no cognitive collision between "ugly win" and stinking up the joint. In fact, the two often go hand in hand. And Wonk always smiles when he sees the "nonconference road win" test employed. What's the best nonconference road win for any team in the nation this year? Maybe Gonzaga's win against Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City. Though not played on the Cowboys' home floor in Stillwater, this game made a big impression on Wonk and on others. Only problem being: the Zags have since stunk up the joint, as it were, losing to the likes of Missouri, St. Mary's, and San Francisco. So include me out as far as making nonconference road wins the dispositive litmus test.)
Momentarily leaving aside the teams at the top of the conference standings (defined as three losses or fewer: Illinois, Michigan State, and Wisconsin) and those at the bottom (defined as eight losses or more: Purdue and Penn State), Wonk wishes to direct your attention today to the Big Ten's vital center: six teams whose fates for 2005 (with the self-declared exception of Ohio State) are still yet to be placed with finality on the tournament or non-tournament side of the ledger. (And, of course, any team, including Penn State or Purdue, could win the Big Ten tournament and go to the big dance. Duly noted.) From bottom to top those teams are:
Michigan (12-12, 3-7)
Yes, yes, Wonk sees the alert readers scratching their heads and saying, "Michigan? Why are we even discussing this? They've lost seven in a row." Indeed they have. And yet if by some strange chance they were able to win out they would stand at 18-12 overall and 9-7 in conference--classic bubble numbers. Not bloody likely, to be sure: the Wolverines play at Wisconsin next Wednesday night. And first Tommy Amaker's team would have to take care of business Saturday at home against Michigan State--no mean feat, that. In other words, this, absent a win Saturday, is the last conceivable moment when Michigan can even rate inclusion in a discussion such as this. Tuesday against Illinois they shot the ball well and limited their own turnovers. (Even though the outcome swung on crucial second-half TO's coughed up by the Wolverines, statistically they had their best game in a long while in this category.) If they can bring that kind of elevated performance to teams that aren't number 1, they have their last minuscule chance to salvage their season.
Iowa (15-7, 3-6)
You know those curious cases where a person has some inexplicable and injurious mishap visited upon them on the same day every year? One year they go skiing and break a leg. The next year on the same day they're in a car accident. And the year after that on the very same day they spill some boiling water and burn themselves. Steve Alford's like that. Every year his team comes to the Big Ten season with high hopes--and some years, such as this one, those hopes are justified. And yet somehow every year those hopes are dashed. This year the Hawkeyes have shown surprising resilience without Pierre Pierce--but they have nothing to show for it, losing closely-contested games at home against Michigan State and on the road against Wisconsin (see below). They too are now in a position where they must win out to justify serious consideration for a tournament bid. Meaning they must win next Saturday when Illinois comes to Carver-Hawkeye Arena.
Northwestern (11-11, 4-6)
The Wildcats did something last night they had not done all year, in or out of conference: they won on the home floor of an opponent, beating Minnesota 55-53 (see below). They need to do the same thing Saturday at Iowa and in two weeks at Illinois. Will they? No.
Ohio State (16-8, 5-5)
The Buckeyes, of course, will not go to the NCAA or for that matter the NIT due to self-imposed sanctions resulting from infractions that occurred under previous coach Jim O'Brien. But let us ask the parlor-game question (for this is what blogs do): will their record at the end of the year be such that they would have gone if not for their own preemption? It just might. Ohio State finishes the season with road games at Penn State, Minnesota, and Iowa, and with home games against Indiana, Wisconsin, and Illinois. Personally Wonk feels like the best the Buckeyes could reasonably hope for from that stretch is 4-2, which would leave them 20-10 and 9-7. Win a couple games in the Big Ten tournament and on paper you're a definite maybe. One prediction that is safe: if something like this does indeed play out, watch for much earnest debate over whether it was "fair to the kids in the program now" for Ohio State to impose its own postseason ban.
Indiana (10-10, 5-4)
With just four losses in conference as we approach mid-February, the Hoosiers are in a better spot than many would have thought possible a month ago. This Saturday's game against Minnesota in Bloomington is therefore the weightiest game of the year so far in the Big Ten in terms of bubble-ish consequences. A win for the Gophers rights the ship and puts them solidly on course for a tournament berth while painting Indiana into a must-win-out corner. Conversely, a win for the home team Saturday vaults Indiana ahead of Minnesota in the standings and would make the Hoosiers the "buzz" team du jour for those looking with increasing desperation for the occasional non-Illinois discursive topic.
Minnesota (16-7, 6-4)
See "Northwestern" and "Indiana" above: after their disastrous home loss last night to the Wildcats, Minnesota can recoup instantly with a win Saturday. And that's precisely what they need to do because their next game is also on the road, against Michigan State.
Big Ten Wonk: bravely quashing incipient urban legends in hoops since 2004
Wonk has noted with alarm a wholly erroneous and thus disturbing piece of ersatz insta-wisdom being passed around in the immediate aftermath of Illinois' ungainly 57-51 win over Michigan Tuesday night. It is being said of this game that the Wolverines "played zone."
Define "played."
Tommy Amaker's team used a zone defense on perhaps three Illini first half possessions (with questionable success--one of those possessions being Dee Brown's four-point play). In the second half Michigan, it's true, played one sustained period of zone defense but even this was only about four minutes in duration, from roughly the 15 minute mark to 11. (And this, of course, is precisely when Illinois made their move, going from eight down at the beginning of this stretch to two down at the end of it.) And then, somewhat oddly, the Wolverines played zone on one more possession at about the nine minute mark. After this, Michigan soon trailed and thus did not show the zone again. Thus by Wonk's conservative ballparking, Michigan showed a zone on perhaps 15 percent of the Illini's possessions.
Let us have no more of this hoary canard.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern beat Minnesota 55-53 in Minneapolis last night in a game eerily reminiscent of Iowa's disastrous loss to the Wildcats in Evanston on January 26. Like the Hawkeyes, the Gophers seemed in control late in the game, leading by ten with four minutes left. From that point forward, however, Minnesota attempted just one field goal and missed three of six free throws while coughing the ball up three times. For the game the Gophers recorded a generous 23 turnovers. (Gosh, maybe point guards are necessary!) Oddest box score of the year nominee: Vincent Grier scored 32 points; Minnesota outrebounded the Cats by 21; and the home team attempted 20 more free throws than the visitors--and yet Minnesota lost. (Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse thinks he may have seen "the first sign of overconfidence" last night in the Gophers--and they paid for it. Indefatigable Star Tribune Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman says the loss will leave a "mark that might last until mid-March." Equally indefatigable Minnesota beat writer Rick Alonzo of the St. Paul Pioneer Press says the home team "met with a dose of reality in its first game since joining the Big Ten Conference's elite.")
Wisconsin beat Iowa 72-69 in Madison last night. In what is becoming a drearily familiar ritual, Steve Alford used his postgame comments after a close road loss to complain of a discrepancy in free throw attempts (35 to 14), even though his Hawkeyes were hacking intentionally the last couple minutes and thus tacked on a quick 10 FTA's for the Badgers right there. Iowa led this game by 13 with 12 minutes and change left in the second half but the Hawkeyes scored just two points over the ensuing eight minutes. BONUS note to Iowa opponents: the Hawkeyes are playing well without Pierre Pierce. Turnovers are down and shooting pct. is up. Cause-and-effect or post hoc ergo propter hoc? You make the call! (Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates notes the absence last night of Wisconsin's Zach Morley (injured leg) and Brian Butch (mononucleosis), as well as of Iowa's Pierre Pierce (Pierre Pierce) and says "the race to see who will finish second to Illinois is looking more and more like a war of attrition." Additional Badger links here and here. Hawkeye links here and here. Pierce update: the Iowa guard was arraigned yesterday on felony charges of burglary and domestic assault, among other counts of the indictment. Nevertheless, Pierce appears to be continuing with his appeal for reinstatement to the team. More wall-to-wall Pierce here and here.)
Michigan State beat Ohio State 83-69 in East Lansing last night. Spartan guard Chris Hill, benched by Tom Izzo at the start of the last two games, came in as a reserve and scored 26 points on 8-of-10 shooting. (Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says last night's most important win "took place inside Hill's head." George Sipple of the Detroit Free Press says "Hill needed only the first half against Ohio State on Wednesday night to shake a shooting slump that had lasted the first half of the Big Ten season." (Wonk says: verily, beware. Slumps don't end. They come and go as they please.) Additional Spartan links here, here, and here. Buckeye links here and here.)
Purdue beat Penn State 77-50 in West Lafayette last night. (Links here and here.)
There are off-days for Illinois players but not for Illinois beat writers. Columnist Barry Rozner of the Daily Herald says Illinois is winning as a team and without the benefit of a bona fide superstar. Jim O'Donnell of the Chicago Sun-Times says Illinois' six-point win over Michigan Tuesday night revealed three disturbing truths about the Illini: "The effectiveness of the Illinois bench is disappearing. The jump shot of Deron Williams is about as dependable as Iraqi currency. And the Illini remain subject to Orange Krush-rattling stretches of extraordinarily snoozy offense." Neil Milbert of the Chicago Tribune says "Bruce Weber is worried about his bench." John Supinie of the Copley News Service says Dee Brown is looking at the close call against Michigan as an opportunity to benefit from "a teaching point without tasting defeat." On a more positive note, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that he's having a tough time filling out the ballot for the All-Big-Ten Team and that his "struggle to identify Illinois’ team MVP is a good sign, of course. It signifies balance, unpredictability and the trouble teams have in defending Illinois."
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Annoyed by all the Illinoise
I am so tired of hearing that this team is the second coming of the Wooden Gang. They are a very nice top-ten type team, currently ranked second in the country by Sagarin. Their only monster game, against Wake, occurred at home. They beat Missouri by only six on a neutral floor, barely beat Iowa at home, had trouble with Purdue and would have lost last night if Michigan had not made unforced turnovers in the last ten minutes.
It is unfortunate if their conditioning is so bad that they cannot travel two hours and play twice in two days but to excuse their performance based on that factor is tenuous. Illinois has no impressive out-of-conference road wins, unless you count Georgetown, and have scored 60 or less in their last two wins. One Illinois paper defended their performance against a depleted Indiana team by noting that the Illini had beaten Indiana by more than UNC, apparently not understanding the distinction between playing at home and on the road--perhaps understandable since the Illini seem to have a pathological fear of playing difficult non-conference games on the road.
I like this team. I think that they have great personality, especially Powell, and I expect them to go at least to the Elite 8, if not win it all. But you know what? They really stank up the joint last night and they have several times this season. You call it an ugly win. No, Illinois played poorly and would have lost against better opposition. Lucky for them that they do not face the same level of competition that teams in the Big 12 and Big East face.
William L.
William, Wonk loved your email because, although I suspect you might disagree, this blogger felt like you took a couple elements implicit in yesterday's post and, in Spinal Tap terms, turned up the volume to 11.
By way of explanation, your intrepid blogger herewith offers five easy theses on Illinois:
1. Illinois has recorded the best start of any Big Ten team for 29 years.
2. In light of (1) there are sure to be rhetorical excesses.
3. The egregiousness of (2) will peak in the aftermath of strong performances (e.g., road wins at Wisconsin and Michigan State).
4. Conversely, there will be rhetorical excesses to the opposite extreme after weak performances (see Iowa and Michigan).
5. Thank heaven this ain't football and it will all be settled definitively come April.
Wonk nails these theses to the blogospheric cathedral door, as it were, merely to suggest that the sentiments in your email, William, are largely propelled by Thesis 2--and on that score you and I can find much to agree on. Most notably, Wonk fully understands and yet at the same time becomes somewhat fatigued by the "road to perfection" meme. Your intrepid blogger is an Illinois graduate. Obviously I would be deliriously happy if the Illini went 39-0 and won the national championship. But you know what? Call me deranged but for some strange reason I feel like I would be deliriously happy if they went 38-1 and won the national championship. Or even (horror of horrors) 37-2.
(In closing, two emendations: Wonk bravely stands by his "ugly win" label for the Michigan game, pugnaciously defying any and all to show how it was neither "ugly" nor a win. This blogger sees no cognitive collision between "ugly win" and stinking up the joint. In fact, the two often go hand in hand. And Wonk always smiles when he sees the "nonconference road win" test employed. What's the best nonconference road win for any team in the nation this year? Maybe Gonzaga's win against Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City. Though not played on the Cowboys' home floor in Stillwater, this game made a big impression on Wonk and on others. Only problem being: the Zags have since stunk up the joint, as it were, losing to the likes of Missouri, St. Mary's, and San Francisco. So include me out as far as making nonconference road wins the dispositive litmus test.)
¶ 7:52 AM
Wednesday, February 09, 2005
Wolverine ugly
Michigan lost by 17 at home last week to Minnesota and last Saturday they lost on the road by 26 at Ohio State. Yet last night they gave number 1 and undefeated Illinois a game and lost by just six, 57-51. Is this the beginning of a resurrection for the Wolverines or a sign of weakness in the Illini?
Neither.
This game was played in three parts. With a little more than 11 minutes left in the first half, Illinois led 18-8. Michigan then enjoyed its best 16 minutes of the year and went on a 26-8 run, resulting in a 34-26 Wolverine lead with 15 minutes left in the game. Then the Illini closed the contest with a 31-17 spurt of their own.
The Wolverines threw out their normal offense (and why not, after losing six straight) and sprang a new look on the Illini ("a fake motion offense" Bruce Weber termed it afterward), taking almost every possession under 10 on the shot clock. It worked and, for a good deal of the night, Illinois helped it work. In two separate teachable instances, Roger Powell and Jack Ingram were caught out of position on post feeds. Both plays resulted in baskets and fouls and three-point opportunities. (Weber yanked Powell out of the game after his demonstration of this trend.) Tommy Amaker also mixed his defenses, even showing a box-and-one on one possession, with the lone man-to-man defender chasing Luther Head. (High praise indeed for Head--and kudos to Steve Lavin for spotting the set instantly. Wonk stands by his Nixonian theory of Lavin--as long as I don't have to see the guy, I like him.) And the Illini helped the Wolverines slow the game by missing their own shots for the middle half of the game--a slow tempo's best friend is a defensive rebound.
Also putting the wind at Michigan's back was the fact that they were playing demonstrably their best game of the year. Wonk has alluded previously to this remarkable fact regarding Tommy Amaker's team: In every Big Ten game this year the Wolverines have either been outrebounded or they've given their opponent at least 20 turnovers. Last night was the first night that neither occurred. The rebounding was a wash (Michigan plus four) and the Wolverines coughed up a respectable 13 turnovers (to Illinois' five). Dion Harris (21 points) and Courtney Sims (15) both had their A game on display (and in Harris's case the A game consists of 7-of-17 shooting--good but not unconscious).
Yet last night was still another occasion when Illinois won despite the fact that they were off. You knew it wasn't their night when Dee Brown lost his own dribble and gave up an unforced turnover on a breakaway--ordinarily about as likely as seeing Deron Williams pass up an opportunity for an assist. But it was Brown, of course, who eventually came to the rescue, making the steals and layups that woke up the Illini and quieted the crowd. And Brown's behind-the-back assist to James Augustine for an open dunk was one of the three prettiest dishes Wonk has seen all year.
After playing on Sunday and arriving in Ann Arbor on Tuesday morning due to a weather delay, the Illini had no legs. Bruce Weber told his team the single day of rest is exactly what they'll see in the NCAA's. Yes, but in the tournament the opposing team will also be operating within that same one-day window.
You'd never know it to have watched the game live but Illinois actually shot an OK .438 from the floor. Kudos to oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper for this observation: "Of Illinois' final 22 points scored in the game, there were four layups, four dunks and six free throws." For the game Illinois shot .583 on their two-point attempts and .292 on their three's.
So it's a win for the Illini, an escape. One question as Bruce Weber's team inches closer to the coveted 1-seed: is the eight-man rotation truly just a six-man rotation when the going gets tough? Rich McBride and Nick Smith both sat the entire second half last night.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Illinois-Michigan links. Detroit News columnist Rob Parker says: "This is how Michigan should have played against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue. Had they, the Wolverines might be staring at a trip to the NCAA tournament instead of seven straight losses." Parker's colleague at the News, Jim Spadafore, says this "loss could still be something to build on" for Michigan. (More from the indefatigable Spadafore here.) John Eligon of the Detroit Free Press says even though the maize and blue played their best game of the year, "top-ranked Illinois was simply out of the Wolverines' league." Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti says Tommy Amaker "provided a textbook peek at how to make Illinois vulnerable come March: bleed the clock, settle for one shot and remove Brown and the blurry transition game from the equation." More Illini coverage here, here, here, and here.
Michigan State hosts Ohio State tonight in East Lansing. Spartan guard Chris Hill, averaging just 6.4 points a game in conference play, says he has to "make sure the shots I take are good, quality shots." Tom Izzo says Hill "needs to shoot well if we're going to make a serious run at anything." Hill's position in the starting lineup was given to Drew Neitzel for the first time at Iowa on Saturday. (More from the Neitzel watch here.) On a more positive note, Izzo says Paul Davis has quietly developed into State's best interior defender since the glory days of the 2000 national champions. For his part Ohio State coach Thad Matta calls the Breslin Center in East Lansing "one of the hardest places to play in the country."
Wisconsin hosts Iowa tonight in Madison. Badger forward Alando Tucker says he's healthy at last. (More from the Tucker podiatric watch here.) Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are still looking for their first road win in conference. "We just need victories," says Iowa forward Greg Brunner. Steve Alford says the Badgers "don't beat themselves." (Hawkeye's view of the Badgers here.)
Minnesota hosts Northwestern tonight in Minneapolis. Indefatigable Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune lays out five steps to an NCAA bid for Dan Monson's team here. Gopher wing Brent Lawson says: "When you're winning games it's a lot easier to have fun."
Purdue hosts Penn State tonight in West Lafayette. (Links here and here.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
For the All-Wonk Team (3.0): Vincent Grier
Wonk,
I'll nominate Vincent Grier of Minnesota to replace Jeff Horner.
Even though his PPWS sits at 1.16, he takes by far the most shots of anyone on the Minnesota team and draws the majority of the defensive attention.
Plus, anyone who can dominate Wisconsin like he did deserves consideration.
Drew S.
Thanks, Drew! Wonk is shocked yours is the first nomination of Grier and has to admit that just the words "26 points in a single half against Wisconsin" make a pretty strong case.
Nominations are now closed. Wonk will announce his decision shortly and with appropriate solemnity and gravitas.
No Pierce: good news for the Hawkeyes or their opponents?
What up, Wonk,
Great site. Been reading for a while but I'm a first time wonk-backer.
As for Iowa losing Pierre Pierce, sure, Iowa lost a great player and nearly 18 points a game. But they also “lost” over four turnovers a game, not to mention saying goodbye to their guard with the worst three-point FG pct.
I watched the end of Iowa-Michigan State and I bet that let the rest of the Hawkeyes know they can play without Pierce.
Pat L.
Excellent question, Pat. During the season Wonk has been second to none in pointing out the opportunities for improvement in Pierce's game. And stats caliph Ryan has made a very strong case for your position at the Hawkeye Hoops blog. So why does your intrepid blogger still hesitate to make that leap just yet?....
Wonk's critiques of Pierce's play were always normative: Pierce is turning the ball over a lot and taking lots of bad shots; he should turn the ball over less and take fewer bad shots. But to move from the normative to the comparative and say Iowa's actually a better team with Mike Henderson in that spot? Two things Wonk would point out first: 1) Pierce absorbed a tremendous amount of defensive attention from the opposing team; and 2) somewhat counterintuitively, Pierce is (was) actually the Hawkeyes' best perimeter defender.
(Wonk also finds intriguing evidence from an unlikely source: the chat rooms, veritable epigones of zealously self-interested honesty. Message boards frequented by Michigan State fans did not sound particularly frightened last week that they would be facing Henderson instead of Pierce. Nor do Illinois boards currently sound exactly petrified that Pierce will not be seen in Iowa City when the Illini come to town a week from Saturday.) ¶ 7:49 AM
Michigan lost by 17 at home last week to Minnesota and last Saturday they lost on the road by 26 at Ohio State. Yet last night they gave number 1 and undefeated Illinois a game and lost by just six, 57-51. Is this the beginning of a resurrection for the Wolverines or a sign of weakness in the Illini?
Neither.
This game was played in three parts. With a little more than 11 minutes left in the first half, Illinois led 18-8. Michigan then enjoyed its best 16 minutes of the year and went on a 26-8 run, resulting in a 34-26 Wolverine lead with 15 minutes left in the game. Then the Illini closed the contest with a 31-17 spurt of their own.
The Wolverines threw out their normal offense (and why not, after losing six straight) and sprang a new look on the Illini ("a fake motion offense" Bruce Weber termed it afterward), taking almost every possession under 10 on the shot clock. It worked and, for a good deal of the night, Illinois helped it work. In two separate teachable instances, Roger Powell and Jack Ingram were caught out of position on post feeds. Both plays resulted in baskets and fouls and three-point opportunities. (Weber yanked Powell out of the game after his demonstration of this trend.) Tommy Amaker also mixed his defenses, even showing a box-and-one on one possession, with the lone man-to-man defender chasing Luther Head. (High praise indeed for Head--and kudos to Steve Lavin for spotting the set instantly. Wonk stands by his Nixonian theory of Lavin--as long as I don't have to see the guy, I like him.) And the Illini helped the Wolverines slow the game by missing their own shots for the middle half of the game--a slow tempo's best friend is a defensive rebound.
Also putting the wind at Michigan's back was the fact that they were playing demonstrably their best game of the year. Wonk has alluded previously to this remarkable fact regarding Tommy Amaker's team: In every Big Ten game this year the Wolverines have either been outrebounded or they've given their opponent at least 20 turnovers. Last night was the first night that neither occurred. The rebounding was a wash (Michigan plus four) and the Wolverines coughed up a respectable 13 turnovers (to Illinois' five). Dion Harris (21 points) and Courtney Sims (15) both had their A game on display (and in Harris's case the A game consists of 7-of-17 shooting--good but not unconscious).
Yet last night was still another occasion when Illinois won despite the fact that they were off. You knew it wasn't their night when Dee Brown lost his own dribble and gave up an unforced turnover on a breakaway--ordinarily about as likely as seeing Deron Williams pass up an opportunity for an assist. But it was Brown, of course, who eventually came to the rescue, making the steals and layups that woke up the Illini and quieted the crowd. And Brown's behind-the-back assist to James Augustine for an open dunk was one of the three prettiest dishes Wonk has seen all year.
After playing on Sunday and arriving in Ann Arbor on Tuesday morning due to a weather delay, the Illini had no legs. Bruce Weber told his team the single day of rest is exactly what they'll see in the NCAA's. Yes, but in the tournament the opposing team will also be operating within that same one-day window.
You'd never know it to have watched the game live but Illinois actually shot an OK .438 from the floor. Kudos to oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper for this observation: "Of Illinois' final 22 points scored in the game, there were four layups, four dunks and six free throws." For the game Illinois shot .583 on their two-point attempts and .292 on their three's.
So it's a win for the Illini, an escape. One question as Bruce Weber's team inches closer to the coveted 1-seed: is the eight-man rotation truly just a six-man rotation when the going gets tough? Rich McBride and Nick Smith both sat the entire second half last night.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Illinois-Michigan links. Detroit News columnist Rob Parker says: "This is how Michigan should have played against Minnesota, Wisconsin and Purdue. Had they, the Wolverines might be staring at a trip to the NCAA tournament instead of seven straight losses." Parker's colleague at the News, Jim Spadafore, says this "loss could still be something to build on" for Michigan. (More from the indefatigable Spadafore here.) John Eligon of the Detroit Free Press says even though the maize and blue played their best game of the year, "top-ranked Illinois was simply out of the Wolverines' league." Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti says Tommy Amaker "provided a textbook peek at how to make Illinois vulnerable come March: bleed the clock, settle for one shot and remove Brown and the blurry transition game from the equation." More Illini coverage here, here, here, and here.
Michigan State hosts Ohio State tonight in East Lansing. Spartan guard Chris Hill, averaging just 6.4 points a game in conference play, says he has to "make sure the shots I take are good, quality shots." Tom Izzo says Hill "needs to shoot well if we're going to make a serious run at anything." Hill's position in the starting lineup was given to Drew Neitzel for the first time at Iowa on Saturday. (More from the Neitzel watch here.) On a more positive note, Izzo says Paul Davis has quietly developed into State's best interior defender since the glory days of the 2000 national champions. For his part Ohio State coach Thad Matta calls the Breslin Center in East Lansing "one of the hardest places to play in the country."
Wisconsin hosts Iowa tonight in Madison. Badger forward Alando Tucker says he's healthy at last. (More from the Tucker podiatric watch here.) Meanwhile the Hawkeyes are still looking for their first road win in conference. "We just need victories," says Iowa forward Greg Brunner. Steve Alford says the Badgers "don't beat themselves." (Hawkeye's view of the Badgers here.)
Minnesota hosts Northwestern tonight in Minneapolis. Indefatigable Gopher beat writer Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune lays out five steps to an NCAA bid for Dan Monson's team here. Gopher wing Brent Lawson says: "When you're winning games it's a lot easier to have fun."
Purdue hosts Penn State tonight in West Lafayette. (Links here and here.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
For the All-Wonk Team (3.0): Vincent Grier
Wonk,
I'll nominate Vincent Grier of Minnesota to replace Jeff Horner.
Even though his PPWS sits at 1.16, he takes by far the most shots of anyone on the Minnesota team and draws the majority of the defensive attention.
Plus, anyone who can dominate Wisconsin like he did deserves consideration.
Drew S.
Thanks, Drew! Wonk is shocked yours is the first nomination of Grier and has to admit that just the words "26 points in a single half against Wisconsin" make a pretty strong case.
Nominations are now closed. Wonk will announce his decision shortly and with appropriate solemnity and gravitas.
No Pierce: good news for the Hawkeyes or their opponents?
What up, Wonk,
Great site. Been reading for a while but I'm a first time wonk-backer.
As for Iowa losing Pierre Pierce, sure, Iowa lost a great player and nearly 18 points a game. But they also “lost” over four turnovers a game, not to mention saying goodbye to their guard with the worst three-point FG pct.
I watched the end of Iowa-Michigan State and I bet that let the rest of the Hawkeyes know they can play without Pierce.
Pat L.
Excellent question, Pat. During the season Wonk has been second to none in pointing out the opportunities for improvement in Pierce's game. And stats caliph Ryan has made a very strong case for your position at the Hawkeye Hoops blog. So why does your intrepid blogger still hesitate to make that leap just yet?....
Wonk's critiques of Pierce's play were always normative: Pierce is turning the ball over a lot and taking lots of bad shots; he should turn the ball over less and take fewer bad shots. But to move from the normative to the comparative and say Iowa's actually a better team with Mike Henderson in that spot? Two things Wonk would point out first: 1) Pierce absorbed a tremendous amount of defensive attention from the opposing team; and 2) somewhat counterintuitively, Pierce is (was) actually the Hawkeyes' best perimeter defender.
(Wonk also finds intriguing evidence from an unlikely source: the chat rooms, veritable epigones of zealously self-interested honesty. Message boards frequented by Michigan State fans did not sound particularly frightened last week that they would be facing Henderson instead of Pierce. Nor do Illinois boards currently sound exactly petrified that Pierce will not be seen in Iowa City when the Illini come to town a week from Saturday.) ¶ 7:49 AM
Tuesday, February 08, 2005
Are point guards necessary? (part 2)
Long-time readers (i.e., those from before last week) will recall Wonk once headlined a post with the whimsical and multiple-email-generating title, "Are point guards necessary?" At the time your intrepid blogger certainly did not intend for the headline to be taken literally. He merely wanted to suggest that Michigan State was doing quite well, even absent much in the way of help from much-ballyhooed point-guard-in-perpetual-waiting Drew Neitzel.
This time, however, Wonk asks the question in earnest and points to the Minnesota Golden Gophers for your judicious consideration. Dan Monson's team is fairly a walking refutation of every cliche you hear nightly on ESPN. They have no "true" point guard (their assist leader, Aaron Robinson, averages less than three of the things per game). They are loaded to the brim with freshmen. Yet, after their 10-point victory at home over Wisconsin Saturday, they are the team du jour for everyone looking with increasing fervor for at least one non-Illinois topic, however fleeting. The Gophers are a surprising 16-6 overall and, at 6-3 in conference play, are tied for third in the Big Ten with the Badgers. That perch is rightly being recognized as NCAA-worthy, should they hold it.
Granted, Minnesota's stock is likely about to dip--after tomorrow night's game at home against Northwestern the Gophers face consecutive road games at Indiana and at Michigan State. (After that, however, Dan Monson's team could conceivably finish 4-0, with home games against Ohio State and Iowa and road games at Purdue and at Penn State.) Still, no one in the preseason was projecting Minnesota to come this far. How are they doing it?
1. With defense. Stats caliph Ryan at the Hawkeye Hoops blog rates the Gophers as the best defensive team in the Big Ten by a considerable margin in conference play.
2. With independence. Let the rest of the hoops world slavishly imitate guard-heavy Illinois and owlishly monitor things like assist-turnover ratios and turnovers-per-possession. The wing-and-Hagen-heavy Gophers rank comfortably in the middle of the pack in such stats and win anyway. (Minnesota opponents turn the ball over at a prodigious rate but the Gophers cough up a few TO's themselves, thus evening out the turnover margin to a middling number.)
3. With luck. Minnesota's won two close games and lost only one squeaker in conference play.
Surprising and iconoclastic Golden Gophers of Minnesota, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan hosts Illinois tonight in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have lost six in a row, as well as coming up short in their last nine games against the Illini. John Eligon of the Detroit Free Press says "the Wolverines are doing everything the Illini are not: turning the ball over, playing out of sorts ... and losing." Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News says this "could be one of the biggest mismatches of the season." For their part Illini beat writers seem somewhat less assured of tonight's outcome, citing the short turnaround time since Illinois' win on Sunday over Indiana and the fact that Crisler Arena is sold out for only the second time this year (thanks in part to specially-priced $8 tickets): see here, here, here, and here.
Brian Hanley of the Chicago Sun-Times looks at those surprising and iconoclastic Minnesota Golden Gophers here. So does Reid Hanley of the Chicago Tribune, here. The Minneapolis Star Tribune looks at the new buzz around the team here.
Steve Alford says if his Iowa team "continues to fight the way it fought against Michigan State, good things will happen." Meanwhile, Adam Haluska, perhaps campaigning for his share of the many FGA's suddenly available in the absence of Pierre Pierce, says: "I'm a lot stronger than I was when I was at Iowa State." Susan Harman of the Iowa City Press-Citizen suggests Erek Hansen and Doug Thomas will need to score more in the new Pierce-less paradigm. In anticipation of tomorrow night's game between the Hawkeyes and Wisconsin, indefatigable Badger beat writer Mark Stewart of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel looks at Iowa's post-Pierce situation here. So does equally indefatigable Badger beat writer Jon Masson of the Wisconsin State Journal, here. All of this discussion of the post-Pierce world has left Pierce himself saying: yoo-hoo, still alive; he has appealed his dismissal from the team.
Profile of Badger big man Andreas Helmigk here.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says, upon further review, he wishes he had not removed Shannon Brown from the game at Iowa on Saturday late in the first half after Brown received a technical foul. Izzo was told by referees that Brown had been "yapping" the whole game but after looking at the tape Izzo has decided a little more yapping and emotion may be a good thing for his team. (More on Shannon Brown and the benching of renown here.)
Ohio State coach Thad Matta and his players say they know they have a big challenge ahead of them tomorrow night when they play at Michigan State.
Stewart Mandel of si.com wins this week's Strunk & White award for clarity of sparse verbiage. Mandel says, Illinois notwithstanding, "the Big Ten stinks." Mandel also rates this week's Blinding Flash of the Obvious Award for this nugget: "Big Ten followers should savor Illinois' current run, because there may not be another one like it for a while." Given that there has not in fact been such a run for the last 29 years, Wonk had assumed we all assumed that already.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Facts, schmacts! Wonk stands by his original indignation!
Yesterday, in his latest bit of shameless Pulitzer pandering, Wonk inveighed mightily against the failure of the Detroit Free Press to send a beat writer to Columbus Saturday for Michigan's game against Ohio State or, for that matter, to Iowa City for Michigan State's game against Iowa. Many, many alert readers (particular shout-outs to longtime correspondents Matt M. and Dave N.) emailed to point out that the Free Press and the Detroit News share a common ownership and publish under a "joint operating agreement" wherein one has sports coverage on Saturday and one on Sunday.
You know, a little of the late Chris Farley went a long way for Wonk--yet for some reason your intrepid blogger now finds himself thinking: well, lah-dee-frickin-dah!
All newspapers share common ownership. Anyway, that's what Wonk's professor for "Hermeneutical Hegemony and Late Capitalism" said in grad school and he knew whereof he spoke because the license plate on his BMW said "MARX 1." Therefore, Wonk, reared within a Chicago paradigm that puts multiple reporters from competing locals at every event, henceforth swears off trying to comprehend the bizarre ways and mores of Detroit media, whose internecine grudges and convoluted practices are as needlessly incomprehensible to an outsider as Florence under the Borgias--um, but without the art.
Wonk misses some games--but Wonk's readers see all!
Your intrepid blogger has a shocking confession to make: Wonk did not see any of the Indiana-Illinois game on Sunday.
Oh, make no mistake, Wonk tried. At that hour your intrepid blogger was at Gate 43 in Terminal 1 of San Francisco International, on his way back to Minneapolis. Having arrived at the gate with time to spare, Wonk honed in on the unmistakable siren call of airport sports-bar TV, rounded a corner eager to check the score, and saw....
The Super Bowl pregame show--three and a half hours before kickoff. (If memory serves correct the niece of the person who was going to work the game clock was being interviewed.) This discovery--and the fact that, of course, no one in the bar was watching this filler--triggered the following conversation between your intrepid blogger and the friendly customer service technician plying travelers with liquor at 11:30am on a Sunday:
Wonk: Hi, could you turn on the Indiana-Illinois game?
Bartender: It's not on.
Wonk: Yes, it is. It should be about midway through the second half now.
Bartender: It's not on here.
Wonk: But it's on nationally.
Bartender: We don't have that station.
Wonk: You don't have CBS?
Bartender (suddenly louder): Look, do you want to order or not?
Suffice it to say Wonk missed out on this game in its entirety. But Wonk's readers rise to the occasion!
Hello, Mr. Wonk,
I'm enjoying your blog along with the amazing run the Illini are having.
In the Indiana game, I loved the Dee Brown rebound, no-look flip over the head to Deron Williams, who then knocked the ball on to Augustine volleyball-style for the dunk. All the stupid announcers could talk about was the Deron bump, but the whole series was great. While I greatly prefer college hoops to pro, I've always enjoyed the passing in the NBA. Still, nothing I've seen in the NBA could top that series.
I also enjoyed the Illini defense forcing Indiana into taking really poor shots as the shot clock expired on three successive possessions (only the refs called a cheap foul on the third one.)
Keep up the good work!
Eric W.
Thanks, Eric! Sorry I missed that play.
Nominations now being accepted for one open spot on Wonk's All-Head-Case team
Big Ten Wonk,
I'm not sure if getting kicked off your team disqualifies you for the All Head Case Team or actually makes a stronger case for being included. If it does disqualify you, then I think Mike Thompson of Northwestern should replace the now departed Pierre Pierce.
Thompson got suspended for skipping classes, makes Shaq look like J.J. Redick at the free throw line, and has "Paul Davis disease" (disappearing during important stretches). Seems to me he has all the ingredients....
Even more telling is the fact that when I was at the Illinois-Northwestern game in Evanston, a "Please don't do anything stupid" hush came over the Northwestern fans around me every time Thompson touched the ball--much like the hush that comes over Assembly Hall in Champaign when Nick Smith touches the ball there.
Cliff A.
Thanks, Cliff! And Wonk loves your use of the home crowd as the veritable canary in the head-case coal mine. Wish I'd thought of that.
Other nominations?
Old business
Speaking of nominations, Wonk is about to close discussion on Jeff Horner's replacement on the All-Wonk Team. So far we've heard from persuasive supporters of both Kelvin Torbert and Deron Williams. Others? ¶ 7:29 AM
Long-time readers (i.e., those from before last week) will recall Wonk once headlined a post with the whimsical and multiple-email-generating title, "Are point guards necessary?" At the time your intrepid blogger certainly did not intend for the headline to be taken literally. He merely wanted to suggest that Michigan State was doing quite well, even absent much in the way of help from much-ballyhooed point-guard-in-perpetual-waiting Drew Neitzel.
This time, however, Wonk asks the question in earnest and points to the Minnesota Golden Gophers for your judicious consideration. Dan Monson's team is fairly a walking refutation of every cliche you hear nightly on ESPN. They have no "true" point guard (their assist leader, Aaron Robinson, averages less than three of the things per game). They are loaded to the brim with freshmen. Yet, after their 10-point victory at home over Wisconsin Saturday, they are the team du jour for everyone looking with increasing fervor for at least one non-Illinois topic, however fleeting. The Gophers are a surprising 16-6 overall and, at 6-3 in conference play, are tied for third in the Big Ten with the Badgers. That perch is rightly being recognized as NCAA-worthy, should they hold it.
Granted, Minnesota's stock is likely about to dip--after tomorrow night's game at home against Northwestern the Gophers face consecutive road games at Indiana and at Michigan State. (After that, however, Dan Monson's team could conceivably finish 4-0, with home games against Ohio State and Iowa and road games at Purdue and at Penn State.) Still, no one in the preseason was projecting Minnesota to come this far. How are they doing it?
1. With defense. Stats caliph Ryan at the Hawkeye Hoops blog rates the Gophers as the best defensive team in the Big Ten by a considerable margin in conference play.
2. With independence. Let the rest of the hoops world slavishly imitate guard-heavy Illinois and owlishly monitor things like assist-turnover ratios and turnovers-per-possession. The wing-and-Hagen-heavy Gophers rank comfortably in the middle of the pack in such stats and win anyway. (Minnesota opponents turn the ball over at a prodigious rate but the Gophers cough up a few TO's themselves, thus evening out the turnover margin to a middling number.)
3. With luck. Minnesota's won two close games and lost only one squeaker in conference play.
Surprising and iconoclastic Golden Gophers of Minnesota, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan hosts Illinois tonight in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have lost six in a row, as well as coming up short in their last nine games against the Illini. John Eligon of the Detroit Free Press says "the Wolverines are doing everything the Illini are not: turning the ball over, playing out of sorts ... and losing." Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News says this "could be one of the biggest mismatches of the season." For their part Illini beat writers seem somewhat less assured of tonight's outcome, citing the short turnaround time since Illinois' win on Sunday over Indiana and the fact that Crisler Arena is sold out for only the second time this year (thanks in part to specially-priced $8 tickets): see here, here, here, and here.
Brian Hanley of the Chicago Sun-Times looks at those surprising and iconoclastic Minnesota Golden Gophers here. So does Reid Hanley of the Chicago Tribune, here. The Minneapolis Star Tribune looks at the new buzz around the team here.
Steve Alford says if his Iowa team "continues to fight the way it fought against Michigan State, good things will happen." Meanwhile, Adam Haluska, perhaps campaigning for his share of the many FGA's suddenly available in the absence of Pierre Pierce, says: "I'm a lot stronger than I was when I was at Iowa State." Susan Harman of the Iowa City Press-Citizen suggests Erek Hansen and Doug Thomas will need to score more in the new Pierce-less paradigm. In anticipation of tomorrow night's game between the Hawkeyes and Wisconsin, indefatigable Badger beat writer Mark Stewart of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel looks at Iowa's post-Pierce situation here. So does equally indefatigable Badger beat writer Jon Masson of the Wisconsin State Journal, here. All of this discussion of the post-Pierce world has left Pierce himself saying: yoo-hoo, still alive; he has appealed his dismissal from the team.
Profile of Badger big man Andreas Helmigk here.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says, upon further review, he wishes he had not removed Shannon Brown from the game at Iowa on Saturday late in the first half after Brown received a technical foul. Izzo was told by referees that Brown had been "yapping" the whole game but after looking at the tape Izzo has decided a little more yapping and emotion may be a good thing for his team. (More on Shannon Brown and the benching of renown here.)
Ohio State coach Thad Matta and his players say they know they have a big challenge ahead of them tomorrow night when they play at Michigan State.
Stewart Mandel of si.com wins this week's Strunk & White award for clarity of sparse verbiage. Mandel says, Illinois notwithstanding, "the Big Ten stinks." Mandel also rates this week's Blinding Flash of the Obvious Award for this nugget: "Big Ten followers should savor Illinois' current run, because there may not be another one like it for a while." Given that there has not in fact been such a run for the last 29 years, Wonk had assumed we all assumed that already.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Facts, schmacts! Wonk stands by his original indignation!
Yesterday, in his latest bit of shameless Pulitzer pandering, Wonk inveighed mightily against the failure of the Detroit Free Press to send a beat writer to Columbus Saturday for Michigan's game against Ohio State or, for that matter, to Iowa City for Michigan State's game against Iowa. Many, many alert readers (particular shout-outs to longtime correspondents Matt M. and Dave N.) emailed to point out that the Free Press and the Detroit News share a common ownership and publish under a "joint operating agreement" wherein one has sports coverage on Saturday and one on Sunday.
You know, a little of the late Chris Farley went a long way for Wonk--yet for some reason your intrepid blogger now finds himself thinking: well, lah-dee-frickin-dah!
All newspapers share common ownership. Anyway, that's what Wonk's professor for "Hermeneutical Hegemony and Late Capitalism" said in grad school and he knew whereof he spoke because the license plate on his BMW said "MARX 1." Therefore, Wonk, reared within a Chicago paradigm that puts multiple reporters from competing locals at every event, henceforth swears off trying to comprehend the bizarre ways and mores of Detroit media, whose internecine grudges and convoluted practices are as needlessly incomprehensible to an outsider as Florence under the Borgias--um, but without the art.
Wonk misses some games--but Wonk's readers see all!
Your intrepid blogger has a shocking confession to make: Wonk did not see any of the Indiana-Illinois game on Sunday.
Oh, make no mistake, Wonk tried. At that hour your intrepid blogger was at Gate 43 in Terminal 1 of San Francisco International, on his way back to Minneapolis. Having arrived at the gate with time to spare, Wonk honed in on the unmistakable siren call of airport sports-bar TV, rounded a corner eager to check the score, and saw....
The Super Bowl pregame show--three and a half hours before kickoff. (If memory serves correct the niece of the person who was going to work the game clock was being interviewed.) This discovery--and the fact that, of course, no one in the bar was watching this filler--triggered the following conversation between your intrepid blogger and the friendly customer service technician plying travelers with liquor at 11:30am on a Sunday:
Wonk: Hi, could you turn on the Indiana-Illinois game?
Bartender: It's not on.
Wonk: Yes, it is. It should be about midway through the second half now.
Bartender: It's not on here.
Wonk: But it's on nationally.
Bartender: We don't have that station.
Wonk: You don't have CBS?
Bartender (suddenly louder): Look, do you want to order or not?
Suffice it to say Wonk missed out on this game in its entirety. But Wonk's readers rise to the occasion!
Hello, Mr. Wonk,
I'm enjoying your blog along with the amazing run the Illini are having.
In the Indiana game, I loved the Dee Brown rebound, no-look flip over the head to Deron Williams, who then knocked the ball on to Augustine volleyball-style for the dunk. All the stupid announcers could talk about was the Deron bump, but the whole series was great. While I greatly prefer college hoops to pro, I've always enjoyed the passing in the NBA. Still, nothing I've seen in the NBA could top that series.
I also enjoyed the Illini defense forcing Indiana into taking really poor shots as the shot clock expired on three successive possessions (only the refs called a cheap foul on the third one.)
Keep up the good work!
Eric W.
Thanks, Eric! Sorry I missed that play.
Nominations now being accepted for one open spot on Wonk's All-Head-Case team
Big Ten Wonk,
I'm not sure if getting kicked off your team disqualifies you for the All Head Case Team or actually makes a stronger case for being included. If it does disqualify you, then I think Mike Thompson of Northwestern should replace the now departed Pierre Pierce.
Thompson got suspended for skipping classes, makes Shaq look like J.J. Redick at the free throw line, and has "Paul Davis disease" (disappearing during important stretches). Seems to me he has all the ingredients....
Even more telling is the fact that when I was at the Illinois-Northwestern game in Evanston, a "Please don't do anything stupid" hush came over the Northwestern fans around me every time Thompson touched the ball--much like the hush that comes over Assembly Hall in Champaign when Nick Smith touches the ball there.
Cliff A.
Thanks, Cliff! And Wonk loves your use of the home crowd as the veritable canary in the head-case coal mine. Wish I'd thought of that.
Other nominations?
Old business
Speaking of nominations, Wonk is about to close discussion on Jeff Horner's replacement on the All-Wonk Team. So far we've heard from persuasive supporters of both Kelvin Torbert and Deron Williams. Others? ¶ 7:29 AM
Monday, February 07, 2005
SPECIAL return-of-Wonk edition!
Wonk is back from a few days of goofing off and upon returning your intrepid blogger finds more than one alert reader has emailed to ask nicely yet pointedly what could explain this February sabbatical. Two things, fair readers, each far more elemental and enduring than Big Ten hoops:
1. The anniversary of tying the knot with the Wonk Wife
2. The Minneapolis winter
Your intrepid blogger moved to Minneapolis from northern California last spring and this is the first winter in the new digs. You'd think Wonk's boyhood in central Illinois would have prepared him for January in the Twin Cities. Well, you'd think wrong, and at the first opportunity yours truly grabbed the Wonk Wife and scurried back to our beloved getaway spot, Bodega Bay, CA, for beach-walking, ocean-view hiking, and general non-slush-related living. It was nice.
Then I got back and found out all heck's been breaking loose, to wit....
Pierre Pierce is no longer an Iowa Hawkeye.
Minnesota is winning non-Penn-State road games by 17 and is a legitimate NCAA contender.
Michigan is failing to score 50 and this year's once-trendy dark horse is now waiting for next year.
Wha' happen?....
Illinois beat Indiana 60-47 in Champaign yesterday. The Hoosiers played without Bracey Wright (who injured his ankle last week) and Mike Davis started four freshmen. The Illini led this game 20-3 with eight minutes and change remaining in the first half. Yet Illinois went just 4-of-16 on their three's and recorded a season low for points. "Nothing against Indiana but I'm not sure our guys were mentally ready to play," said Bruce Weber afterward. Deron Williams had the day's split-personality stat line, scoring just one point on 0-for-7 shooting from the field--but also recording 11 assists. (Peoria Journal Star Sports Editor Bill Liesse says of the Illini performance yesterday: "Most teams lose when they're this flat. Illinois, technically, beat Indiana twice as badly as did North Carolina and UConn." Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Weber will happily take this "freebie wakeup call that doesn't cost Illinois its first loss of the season." More Illini links here, here, here, and here. Hoosier links here and here.)
Minnesota beat Wisconsin 60-50 in Minneapolis Saturday. Wisconsin just doesn't have the horses they used to have. Bo Ryan is trying to guard the likes of Luther Head and Vincent Grier with Clayton Hanson, with predictable results. (Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse says defense won this game for the Gophers. Additional Gopher link here. BONUS Wonk plea for linking: Please use the aforementioned "additional Gopher link," if for no other reason than to gaze upon the spectacular photo of the spectacular moment when Vincent Grier tried to dunk over Alando Tucker--nuff said right there. Badger links here and here.)
Michigan State beat Iowa 75-64 in Iowa City Saturday. (Excellent two-part Herman Wouk-esque recap here and here from Hawkeye Hoops, defining state-of-the-art in team blogs since 2004. Mainstream Hawkeye links here, here, and here. For his part Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz pens this week's Hearty Perennial award winner and says Paul Davis needs to take control and make this his team. Money graf: "Much discussion has surrounded MSU's point guard position. The bigger issue is getting the ball to the big man." More Spartan links here, here, here, and here. BONUS memo to the Detroit Free Press: hey, it's a Big Ten game. Send a beat writer.)
Ohio State beat Michigan 72-46 in Columbus Saturday. The Wolverines committed 18 turnovers--in the first half (29 for the game). Wonk has seen non-guard dominant forces Carmelo Anthony and Emeka Okafor hoist national championship trophies the past two years and thus has a pet theory that nattering TV-heads tend to overstate the importance of guard play come March--but the contra positive proves the rule: when the backcourt fails to perform to a certain level the whole team falls apart. Tommy Amaker's team is in danger of supporting Wonk's theory. (Buckeye link here. Wolverine link here. BONUS memo to the Detroit Free Press: hey, it's a Big Ten game. Send a beat writer.)
Northwestern beat Purdue 67-61 Saturday in Evanston. (Wildcat links here and here. Boiler links here, here, and here.)
Forget PPG. Remember PPWS.
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat that not only measures scoring efficiency, it also captures more than just points from the field (unlike, say, points per shot or "PPS"). This stat takes in both FGA's and FTA's. It's points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by Wonk. Here are the latest Big Ten PPWS numbers, including yesterday's Indiana-Illinois game:
Top 20 PPWS
1. Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (1.43)
2. James Augustine, Illinois (1.40)
3. Dee Brown, Illinois (1.35)
4. Brent Lawson, Minnesota (1.34)
5. Luther Head, Illinois (1.33)
6. Carl Landry, Purdue (1.32)
7. Aaron Robinson, Minnesota (1.30)
8. Alan Anderson, Michigan State (1.28)
9. Jeff Hagen, Minnesota (1.27)
10. J.J. Sullinger, Ohio State (1.27)
11. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.27)
12. Adam Haluska, Iowa (1.26)
13. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.25)
14. Vedran Vukusic, Northwestern (1.25)
15. Roger Powell, Illinois (1.25)
16. Carlton Reed, Iowa (1.25)
17. Chris Hunter, Michigan (1.24)
18. D.J. White, Indiana (1.24)
19. Clayton Hanson, Wisconsin (1.23)
20. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.23)
Bottom 20 PPWS
1. Nick Smith, Illinois (0.83)
2. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (0.85)
3. Brandon McKnight, Purdue (0.87)
4. Ben Luber, Penn State (0.89)
5. Mike Henderson, Iowa (0.90)
6. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (0.90)
7. Dion Harris, Michigan (0.92)
8. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (0.92)
9. David Teague, Purdue (0.93)
10. Ray Nixon, Wisconsin (0.95)
11. Andreas Helmigk, Wisconsin (0.96)
12. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (0.96)
13. Mike Thompson, Northwestern (0.97)
14. Gary Ware, Purdue (0.98)
15. Robert Vaden, Indiana (0.99)
16. Brandon Fuss-Cheatham, Ohio State (1.00)
17. Xavier Price, Purdue (1.00)
18. Dan Coleman, Minnesota (1.00)
19. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (1.01)
20. Erek Hansen, Iowa (1.01)
What it means. Give Kelvin Torbert 12 FGA's and six FTA's and he'll likely score about 21 points. Give Nick Smith the same number of shots and he'll likely score about 12.
What it really means. In his own ruminations, Wonk has taken to using PPWS not so much as a ranking but as more of a character reference. With all due respect to Kelvin Torbert, James Augustine, and Brent Lawson, your intrepid blogger directs your attention to the other half of the top six: Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry. While scoring about 100 more points than Torbert, Augustine, or Lawson, these three are performing at virtually the same level of efficiency. Incredible. And Landry in particular merits a new adjective. This guy is not only scoring lots of points, he's somehow doing so efficiently without any--and Wonk means ANY--other scoring threat on his team. What a gamer. Your intrepid blogger is proud to have these three competitors on the All-Wonk Team.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Pat Forde of espn.com says North Carolina and Illinois are 1 and 2--the respective states, that is. With Wonk-like caprice, Forde took an arbitrary top three D-I schools from each of 36 states that have three such entities and computed a statewide RPI. The land of Lincoln owes its strong showing to Illinois, DePaul and Southern Illinois.
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline looks at who's in and who's out for the tournament here and says "Without Pierre Pierce the guess here is that Iowa won't make it." Doyel also says Minnesota is "close enough to touch" its first bid since 1999. (BONUS fun fact: that year's Gopher team lost to...Dan Monson and Gonzaga.) Wonk says: Doyel, Schmoyel, let's hear from Cort Basham!
Syracuse has put in its bid for the "Clockwork Orange" nickname, a moniker that's also been applied to the Illini this year.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Upon his return Wonk found many great emails waiting for him on the Illinois-Michigan State game. Alas, that is now last week's news.
So, fair readers, email me some new stuff and remember the official Wonk three-legged stool here: top o' the blog's what Wonk says; the middle's what the media and bloggers are saying; the bottom's what you say.
¶ 6:42 AM
Wonk is back from a few days of goofing off and upon returning your intrepid blogger finds more than one alert reader has emailed to ask nicely yet pointedly what could explain this February sabbatical. Two things, fair readers, each far more elemental and enduring than Big Ten hoops:
1. The anniversary of tying the knot with the Wonk Wife
2. The Minneapolis winter
Your intrepid blogger moved to Minneapolis from northern California last spring and this is the first winter in the new digs. You'd think Wonk's boyhood in central Illinois would have prepared him for January in the Twin Cities. Well, you'd think wrong, and at the first opportunity yours truly grabbed the Wonk Wife and scurried back to our beloved getaway spot, Bodega Bay, CA, for beach-walking, ocean-view hiking, and general non-slush-related living. It was nice.
Then I got back and found out all heck's been breaking loose, to wit....
Pierre Pierce is no longer an Iowa Hawkeye.
Minnesota is winning non-Penn-State road games by 17 and is a legitimate NCAA contender.
Michigan is failing to score 50 and this year's once-trendy dark horse is now waiting for next year.
Wha' happen?....
Illinois beat Indiana 60-47 in Champaign yesterday. The Hoosiers played without Bracey Wright (who injured his ankle last week) and Mike Davis started four freshmen. The Illini led this game 20-3 with eight minutes and change remaining in the first half. Yet Illinois went just 4-of-16 on their three's and recorded a season low for points. "Nothing against Indiana but I'm not sure our guys were mentally ready to play," said Bruce Weber afterward. Deron Williams had the day's split-personality stat line, scoring just one point on 0-for-7 shooting from the field--but also recording 11 assists. (Peoria Journal Star Sports Editor Bill Liesse says of the Illini performance yesterday: "Most teams lose when they're this flat. Illinois, technically, beat Indiana twice as badly as did North Carolina and UConn." Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that Weber will happily take this "freebie wakeup call that doesn't cost Illinois its first loss of the season." More Illini links here, here, here, and here. Hoosier links here and here.)
Minnesota beat Wisconsin 60-50 in Minneapolis Saturday. Wisconsin just doesn't have the horses they used to have. Bo Ryan is trying to guard the likes of Luther Head and Vincent Grier with Clayton Hanson, with predictable results. (Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse says defense won this game for the Gophers. Additional Gopher link here. BONUS Wonk plea for linking: Please use the aforementioned "additional Gopher link," if for no other reason than to gaze upon the spectacular photo of the spectacular moment when Vincent Grier tried to dunk over Alando Tucker--nuff said right there. Badger links here and here.)
Michigan State beat Iowa 75-64 in Iowa City Saturday. (Excellent two-part Herman Wouk-esque recap here and here from Hawkeye Hoops, defining state-of-the-art in team blogs since 2004. Mainstream Hawkeye links here, here, and here. For his part Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz pens this week's Hearty Perennial award winner and says Paul Davis needs to take control and make this his team. Money graf: "Much discussion has surrounded MSU's point guard position. The bigger issue is getting the ball to the big man." More Spartan links here, here, here, and here. BONUS memo to the Detroit Free Press: hey, it's a Big Ten game. Send a beat writer.)
Ohio State beat Michigan 72-46 in Columbus Saturday. The Wolverines committed 18 turnovers--in the first half (29 for the game). Wonk has seen non-guard dominant forces Carmelo Anthony and Emeka Okafor hoist national championship trophies the past two years and thus has a pet theory that nattering TV-heads tend to overstate the importance of guard play come March--but the contra positive proves the rule: when the backcourt fails to perform to a certain level the whole team falls apart. Tommy Amaker's team is in danger of supporting Wonk's theory. (Buckeye link here. Wolverine link here. BONUS memo to the Detroit Free Press: hey, it's a Big Ten game. Send a beat writer.)
Northwestern beat Purdue 67-61 Saturday in Evanston. (Wildcat links here and here. Boiler links here, here, and here.)
Forget PPG. Remember PPWS.
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat that not only measures scoring efficiency, it also captures more than just points from the field (unlike, say, points per shot or "PPS"). This stat takes in both FGA's and FTA's. It's points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by Wonk. Here are the latest Big Ten PPWS numbers, including yesterday's Indiana-Illinois game:
Top 20 PPWS
1. Kelvin Torbert, Michigan State (1.43)
2. James Augustine, Illinois (1.40)
3. Dee Brown, Illinois (1.35)
4. Brent Lawson, Minnesota (1.34)
5. Luther Head, Illinois (1.33)
6. Carl Landry, Purdue (1.32)
7. Aaron Robinson, Minnesota (1.30)
8. Alan Anderson, Michigan State (1.28)
9. Jeff Hagen, Minnesota (1.27)
10. J.J. Sullinger, Ohio State (1.27)
11. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.27)
12. Adam Haluska, Iowa (1.26)
13. Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.25)
14. Vedran Vukusic, Northwestern (1.25)
15. Roger Powell, Illinois (1.25)
16. Carlton Reed, Iowa (1.25)
17. Chris Hunter, Michigan (1.24)
18. D.J. White, Indiana (1.24)
19. Clayton Hanson, Wisconsin (1.23)
20. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.23)
Bottom 20 PPWS
1. Nick Smith, Illinois (0.83)
2. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (0.85)
3. Brandon McKnight, Purdue (0.87)
4. Ben Luber, Penn State (0.89)
5. Mike Henderson, Iowa (0.90)
6. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (0.90)
7. Dion Harris, Michigan (0.92)
8. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (0.92)
9. David Teague, Purdue (0.93)
10. Ray Nixon, Wisconsin (0.95)
11. Andreas Helmigk, Wisconsin (0.96)
12. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (0.96)
13. Mike Thompson, Northwestern (0.97)
14. Gary Ware, Purdue (0.98)
15. Robert Vaden, Indiana (0.99)
16. Brandon Fuss-Cheatham, Ohio State (1.00)
17. Xavier Price, Purdue (1.00)
18. Dan Coleman, Minnesota (1.00)
19. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (1.01)
20. Erek Hansen, Iowa (1.01)
What it means. Give Kelvin Torbert 12 FGA's and six FTA's and he'll likely score about 21 points. Give Nick Smith the same number of shots and he'll likely score about 12.
What it really means. In his own ruminations, Wonk has taken to using PPWS not so much as a ranking but as more of a character reference. With all due respect to Kelvin Torbert, James Augustine, and Brent Lawson, your intrepid blogger directs your attention to the other half of the top six: Dee Brown, Luther Head, and Carl Landry. While scoring about 100 more points than Torbert, Augustine, or Lawson, these three are performing at virtually the same level of efficiency. Incredible. And Landry in particular merits a new adjective. This guy is not only scoring lots of points, he's somehow doing so efficiently without any--and Wonk means ANY--other scoring threat on his team. What a gamer. Your intrepid blogger is proud to have these three competitors on the All-Wonk Team.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Pat Forde of espn.com says North Carolina and Illinois are 1 and 2--the respective states, that is. With Wonk-like caprice, Forde took an arbitrary top three D-I schools from each of 36 states that have three such entities and computed a statewide RPI. The land of Lincoln owes its strong showing to Illinois, DePaul and Southern Illinois.
Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline looks at who's in and who's out for the tournament here and says "Without Pierre Pierce the guess here is that Iowa won't make it." Doyel also says Minnesota is "close enough to touch" its first bid since 1999. (BONUS fun fact: that year's Gopher team lost to...Dan Monson and Gonzaga.) Wonk says: Doyel, Schmoyel, let's hear from Cort Basham!
Syracuse has put in its bid for the "Clockwork Orange" nickname, a moniker that's also been applied to the Illini this year.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Upon his return Wonk found many great emails waiting for him on the Illinois-Michigan State game. Alas, that is now last week's news.
So, fair readers, email me some new stuff and remember the official Wonk three-legged stool here: top o' the blog's what Wonk says; the middle's what the media and bloggers are saying; the bottom's what you say.
¶ 6:42 AM
Thursday, February 03, 2005
Wednesday, February 02, 2005
Catch 22
This will come as cold comfort to Michigan State fans but Illinois played its best game of the year last night in defeating the Spartans, 81-68. Early-season Illini blowouts against Gonzaga and Wake Forest were impressive but they occurred in November and December in friendly environs. Last night Illinois won in February in East Lansing.
In the wake of this remarkable game there will doubtless be (and, for all Wonk knows, already is) added scrutiny of and commentary on the Spartan perimeter defense. With a few first-half exceptions (mostly on ball screens--State has to hedge on the ball with more oomph), Wonk says: don't believe it. When the Illini shoot like they shot last night (.569 from the field, .542 from three) they put opponents in an untenable position.
Sure, it's easy for fans to shout "defend the three!" Well, with four minutes left in the game, Kelvin Torbert did defend the three. Torbert, arguably Tom Izzo's best defender, was assigned to Luther Head. The Spartans had closed to within seven, 73-66, and the Izzone was back in the game. Head faced Torbert on the left wing. The Illini senior had been draining three's all night and Torbert received--what? Not a ball fake, exactly, as much as a pause. And then Head was off to the tin. Book it: two points on Tom Izzo's senior lock-down defender. Put yourself in Torbert's shoes--what do you do? Body up on Head and he'll blow past you and dunk. Body up on Dee Brown and he'll blow past you and lay it in. Body up on Deron Williams and he'll blow past you and dish for a dunk. What do you do?
Teams get a night or two like this per season, a night when the shots are falling. Illinois had theirs last night. With a little more than 11 minutes to play in the second half, Deron Williams found himself on the left wing with the shot clock at 8. He violated every rule of sound offensive execution and dribbled around without apparent purpose or escape. With 2 left on the shot clock and Maurice Ager all over him, Williams launched into a jump stop and leaned back for a Bracey Wright fadeaway jumper. Wright was a teammate of Williams' in high school and his version of this shot usually misses. But Williams' went in and Illinois led 64-47. It was that kind of night. (Michigan State actually recorded more assists than did the Illini--eloquent testimony to the unanswerable power of good shooting.)
Now, don't get Wonk wrong. Illinois won with more than kismet. No one wins in Breslin without earning it. The point is not that the Illini got lucky but rather that Michigan State caught the peak performance of what right now is the best team in the nation. Illinois may yet lose during the regular season. (Ponder the point we've reached--one where such a statement need be stated.) But, barring injury or collapse, last night erased any last lingering doubts as to the true potential of this team.
They are 22-0. And they are making history.
BONUS observation #1: Jack Ingram gets better and better. He bothered Paul Davis on D and he shoots the rock. Why no one can understand this second piece of info, Wonk doesn't know. Last week Mike Wilkinson left Ingram alone and got six big points for his trouble within 60 seconds. Last night, with 12 minutes left in the game and Ingram free on the right wing, Paul Davis did the same thing. Score three points for the Illini. (But Davis is more demonstrative than Wilkinson and could be seen shaking his fists at himself. Guess he did get the scouting report--just didn't follow it.)
BONUS observation #2: With 12:20 to play in the first half, Illinois guard Rich McBride dribbled into the lane and fed Nick Smith for a layup. (That sequence again: McBride to Smith.) Dick Vitale's narration of the replay: "Powell with the dish, Ingram with the finish."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Coverage of Illinois-Michigan State is plentiful....
Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp says the Spartans "were again served up as helpless prey, overwhelmed this time by an even more powerful force than their own self-destructive tendencies--a wrecking ball disguised as the nation's No. 1-ranked team." Sharp's colleague at the Free Press, Jemele Hill, says the Illini "put on a shooting clinic." Detroit News columnist Rob Parker says this game "should have convinced you that [MSU is] not capable of winning a big game anymore." Parker's colleague at the News Dave Dye says "Michigan State looked mesmerized at times." Tom Izzo says of the Illini: "They pass up good shots to get great shots." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says Illinois is a "Final Four contender" but, still, "the Spartans are better than they showed." More Spartan links here, here, and here.
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that he'll never again make the mistake of picking an Illinois opponent to win. Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey says Illinois "is a team that plays with as much effort and pride as talent." Fellow Tribune columnist Skip Myslenski says Chris Hill's hesitation on State's opening possession foreshadowed his team's loss. (Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News says pretty much the same thing.) Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says Illinois "is going to go undefeated in the regular season." Copley News Service columnist Mike Nadel says the Breslin Center "crowd repeatedly was reduced to respectful groans ." More here, here, here, here, here, and here. Coverage of the obstacles faced by Illinois fans abroad trying to follow their team in London here.
Andy Katz of espn.com says "Michigan State was just more roadkill in Illinois' path toward an undefeated season." Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline says "Illinois' biggest opponent now is the ghost of 1976 Indiana."
Iowa's Pierre Pierce continues to be investigated by police in West Des Moines, Iowa, but police now include assault with intent to commit sexual abuse among the possible charges. More here, here, and here.
Michigan hosts Minnesota in Ann Arbor tonight. (Wolverine link here. Gopher link here.)
Ohio State hosts Purdue tonight in Columbus. (Buckeye link here. Boiler links here and here.)
Indiana hosts Penn State tonight in Bloomington. (Hoosier link here. PSU link here.)
Wisconsin hosts Northwestern tonight in Madison. (Links here, here, and here.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
BONUS all-Spartan-fan edition
Wonk,
My goodness. MSU didn't play its best game, but they sure didn't play poorly either. I'm not sure anyone could have beaten the Illini tonight. This is clearly the best B10 team since Cleaves & co.
Shawn M.
Thanks, Shawn!
Wonk,
What a performance by the Illini! 12 minutes without missing a shot and against pretty good defense.
I thought the Sparties were giving way too many easy looks in the first half but in the second half the defense was solid and Illinois couldn't friggin miss. Kudos to the Illini, they were impressive.
BTW, I hear Weber yakking about how they share the ball but tonight it was clutch shooting as the shot clock ran down that was the difference.
Dave N.
Thanks, Dave!
Housekeeping note
Wonk is now going to take a few days off.
He'll return fresh as a daisy Monday to take this blog straight through to April and the rollicking-good soap opera supplied yearly by post-Final-Four coaching changes....
And then he'll shut her down for the off-season like a Bar Harbor lobster pound....
Only to descend visigoth-like upon your free time yet again come November.
¶ 5:51 AM
This will come as cold comfort to Michigan State fans but Illinois played its best game of the year last night in defeating the Spartans, 81-68. Early-season Illini blowouts against Gonzaga and Wake Forest were impressive but they occurred in November and December in friendly environs. Last night Illinois won in February in East Lansing.
In the wake of this remarkable game there will doubtless be (and, for all Wonk knows, already is) added scrutiny of and commentary on the Spartan perimeter defense. With a few first-half exceptions (mostly on ball screens--State has to hedge on the ball with more oomph), Wonk says: don't believe it. When the Illini shoot like they shot last night (.569 from the field, .542 from three) they put opponents in an untenable position.
Sure, it's easy for fans to shout "defend the three!" Well, with four minutes left in the game, Kelvin Torbert did defend the three. Torbert, arguably Tom Izzo's best defender, was assigned to Luther Head. The Spartans had closed to within seven, 73-66, and the Izzone was back in the game. Head faced Torbert on the left wing. The Illini senior had been draining three's all night and Torbert received--what? Not a ball fake, exactly, as much as a pause. And then Head was off to the tin. Book it: two points on Tom Izzo's senior lock-down defender. Put yourself in Torbert's shoes--what do you do? Body up on Head and he'll blow past you and dunk. Body up on Dee Brown and he'll blow past you and lay it in. Body up on Deron Williams and he'll blow past you and dish for a dunk. What do you do?
Teams get a night or two like this per season, a night when the shots are falling. Illinois had theirs last night. With a little more than 11 minutes to play in the second half, Deron Williams found himself on the left wing with the shot clock at 8. He violated every rule of sound offensive execution and dribbled around without apparent purpose or escape. With 2 left on the shot clock and Maurice Ager all over him, Williams launched into a jump stop and leaned back for a Bracey Wright fadeaway jumper. Wright was a teammate of Williams' in high school and his version of this shot usually misses. But Williams' went in and Illinois led 64-47. It was that kind of night. (Michigan State actually recorded more assists than did the Illini--eloquent testimony to the unanswerable power of good shooting.)
Now, don't get Wonk wrong. Illinois won with more than kismet. No one wins in Breslin without earning it. The point is not that the Illini got lucky but rather that Michigan State caught the peak performance of what right now is the best team in the nation. Illinois may yet lose during the regular season. (Ponder the point we've reached--one where such a statement need be stated.) But, barring injury or collapse, last night erased any last lingering doubts as to the true potential of this team.
They are 22-0. And they are making history.
BONUS observation #1: Jack Ingram gets better and better. He bothered Paul Davis on D and he shoots the rock. Why no one can understand this second piece of info, Wonk doesn't know. Last week Mike Wilkinson left Ingram alone and got six big points for his trouble within 60 seconds. Last night, with 12 minutes left in the game and Ingram free on the right wing, Paul Davis did the same thing. Score three points for the Illini. (But Davis is more demonstrative than Wilkinson and could be seen shaking his fists at himself. Guess he did get the scouting report--just didn't follow it.)
BONUS observation #2: With 12:20 to play in the first half, Illinois guard Rich McBride dribbled into the lane and fed Nick Smith for a layup. (That sequence again: McBride to Smith.) Dick Vitale's narration of the replay: "Powell with the dish, Ingram with the finish."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Coverage of Illinois-Michigan State is plentiful....
Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp says the Spartans "were again served up as helpless prey, overwhelmed this time by an even more powerful force than their own self-destructive tendencies--a wrecking ball disguised as the nation's No. 1-ranked team." Sharp's colleague at the Free Press, Jemele Hill, says the Illini "put on a shooting clinic." Detroit News columnist Rob Parker says this game "should have convinced you that [MSU is] not capable of winning a big game anymore." Parker's colleague at the News Dave Dye says "Michigan State looked mesmerized at times." Tom Izzo says of the Illini: "They pass up good shots to get great shots." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says Illinois is a "Final Four contender" but, still, "the Spartans are better than they showed." More Spartan links here, here, and here.
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper blogs that he'll never again make the mistake of picking an Illinois opponent to win. Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey says Illinois "is a team that plays with as much effort and pride as talent." Fellow Tribune columnist Skip Myslenski says Chris Hill's hesitation on State's opening possession foreshadowed his team's loss. (Mike DeCourcy of the Sporting News says pretty much the same thing.) Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says Illinois "is going to go undefeated in the regular season." Copley News Service columnist Mike Nadel says the Breslin Center "crowd repeatedly was reduced to respectful groans ." More here, here, here, here, here, and here. Coverage of the obstacles faced by Illinois fans abroad trying to follow their team in London here.
Andy Katz of espn.com says "Michigan State was just more roadkill in Illinois' path toward an undefeated season." Gregg Doyel of cbs.sportsline says "Illinois' biggest opponent now is the ghost of 1976 Indiana."
Iowa's Pierre Pierce continues to be investigated by police in West Des Moines, Iowa, but police now include assault with intent to commit sexual abuse among the possible charges. More here, here, and here.
Michigan hosts Minnesota in Ann Arbor tonight. (Wolverine link here. Gopher link here.)
Ohio State hosts Purdue tonight in Columbus. (Buckeye link here. Boiler links here and here.)
Indiana hosts Penn State tonight in Bloomington. (Hoosier link here. PSU link here.)
Wisconsin hosts Northwestern tonight in Madison. (Links here, here, and here.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
BONUS all-Spartan-fan edition
Wonk,
My goodness. MSU didn't play its best game, but they sure didn't play poorly either. I'm not sure anyone could have beaten the Illini tonight. This is clearly the best B10 team since Cleaves & co.
Shawn M.
Thanks, Shawn!
Wonk,
What a performance by the Illini! 12 minutes without missing a shot and against pretty good defense.
I thought the Sparties were giving way too many easy looks in the first half but in the second half the defense was solid and Illinois couldn't friggin miss. Kudos to the Illini, they were impressive.
BTW, I hear Weber yakking about how they share the ball but tonight it was clutch shooting as the shot clock ran down that was the difference.
Dave N.
Thanks, Dave!
Housekeeping note
Wonk is now going to take a few days off.
He'll return fresh as a daisy Monday to take this blog straight through to April and the rollicking-good soap opera supplied yearly by post-Final-Four coaching changes....
And then he'll shut her down for the off-season like a Bar Harbor lobster pound....
Only to descend visigoth-like upon your free time yet again come November.
¶ 5:51 AM
Tuesday, February 01, 2005
Big
Illinois plays at Michigan State tonight and, while of course anything can happen over the next two months, right now the Illini and the Spartans are clearly the two best teams in the Big Ten--statistically and, more importantly, in the standings. Thus the winner of tonight's game will lay claim to being the top team in the conference, period. If Illinois wins they will, of course, be undefeated both overall and in conference, two games up on both the Spartans and Wisconsin in the loss column. If it's State, they'll be tied with the Illini in the loss column but they'll "own" the tiebreaker, having beaten Illinois head-to-head in the year's only scheduled meeting between the two teams.
On paper the two teams are close to indistinguishable. Ken Pomeroy's points-per-possession-based efficiency ratings tell us that Illinois and Michigan State are the second and fourth best teams in the nation, respectively, on offense and 28th (Illinois) and 31st (MSU) on D. In other words, tonight should feature even match ups on both sides of the ball. Should, yes--but will it?
Illinois shoots just a little better than State and also takes care of the ball better (especially of late--see below). But the Spartans narrow this difference to the point of virtual non-existence with superior rebounding. Illinois, at third in the conference (or, if you wish, second in conference games only), is actually better on the boards than is commonly realized. But State's the best rebounding team in the Big Ten by a considerable margin. Their numbers on the boards are up noticeably from last year with virtually zero change in personnel, suggesting that prolonged exposure to Tom Izzo alone is enough to make one a better rebounder. (The only question here would be the traditional one: whether committing to the boards can lead to opportunities for your opponent in transition. This has not been an issue to date for the Spartans--but they haven't played a team as fast as Illinois.)
The only blemish on State's performance on offense has been a sudden and uncharacteristic knack for turning the ball over. Over their first four conference games they averaged just 10 TO's per game--over their last two they've averaged 18.5. (And the main culprit is even more surprising: Kelvin Torbert, sweet-shooting sixth man and defensive stopper, coughed the ball up seven times in just 40 minutes of combined PT in those two games.) Tom Izzo's team has been able to notch W's against Minnesota and Michigan while giving the ball away 20 and 17 times, respectively. Whether they could do the same against Illinois is open to question.
(Bonus fun fact, apropos of not much: Michigan State and Illinois are two of the least successful teams in the Big Ten at getting to the free throw line, ranking seventh and eighth, respectively, in FTA's per game in conference play. These same two teams are also, however, at the top of the conference in assists per game. Long-time alert readers (meaning those from before last week) may recall Wonk has wondered aloud whether assists, once some vague but outstanding level is reached, may actually be inversely related to FTA's. Are teams who move the ball via the pass rather than the dribble simply fouled less often?)
One welcome feature of tonight's game: there should be zero talk of "controlling the tempo." Neither team fears running with the other. MSU is the deeper team but thus far this season no Illinois opponent has been able to exploit the Illini's eight-man rotation. Both teams put multiple offensive threats on the floor. For Illinois, of course, this is seen as their strength and indeed their identity. For Michigan State, ironically, this same characteristic is sometimes termed a flaw: which Spartan, it is asked, will come up big? Make no mistake--when you hear this question, what's really being asked is: "Will a Spartan come up big?" Look at Illinois. No one really knows which Illini player or players will have the big game (although Luther Head is becoming an increasingly safe choice). But after 21 straight W's there is a widespread feeling, for better or worse, that someone will.
Whether or not they'll have the "big" games, the big men down in the paint on both teams appear to Wonk to hold the greatest potential for surprise--for good or ill. Your intrepid blogger thought Paul Davis looked as dominant in the first eight minutes of the Duke game as Wonk has seen any Big Ten player look this year. If State can get this kind of spurt from Davis tonight (though he's coming off a sprained ankle), it could be a game-changer. As for Illinois, they look to reigning conference Player of the Week James Augustine, whose abysmal scoring against Iowa (oddly coinciding with simultaneous beastly rebounding) was widely noted and critiqued but whose late dunks against Wisconsin almost single-handedly quieted a crowd that had seen 38 straight home wins.
Almost single-handedly. For Augustine had a partner in crime that night named Jack Ingram. Here's a comparison that just three short weeks ago Wonk never would have dreamed he'd be using: Ingram now reminds your intrepid blogger a lot of former Purdue Boilermaker and current Sacramento King Brad Miller. Like Miller, Ingram will never be termed gifted athletically. But also like Miller, he plays a game that is methodical, self-contained, and, at its best, lethally effective--even if he doesn't realize it. Ingram comes in, of course, when Augustine or Roger Powell gets into foul trouble. When it's Powell that comes out, the Illini put a team on the floor that, for all the talk of Illinois being "thin" on the interior, suddenly looks much bigger while, somehow, not sacrificing much in speed.
And so February opens with the Big Ten's two best teams playing for perhaps the only time this season. Two evenly matched track-team-fast lineups. The nominal "1-seed" playing on the home floor of the "2." One of the finest venues in college hoops.
It's big.
A talk with Dave Dye
Dave Dye covers the Michigan State Spartans for the Detroit News and also contributes to the News' Big Ten Weblog. In anticipation of tonight's game between the Spartans and Illinois, Dave talked to Wonk about Michigan State's season, its players (past and present), and a certain coach who, with the retirement of Gene Keady, is about to become the "dean" of Big Ten coaches....
Q. I've said this enough that the readers of this blog are probably tired of hearing it, but just so you know, Dave: I think Michigan State's really underrated nationally. They had one horrible game against George Washington, I'll grant you. But aside from that the Spartans have lost only at Duke and at Wisconsin--not too much shame there. So I think State's tougher than people realize. Am I wrong?
A. They're definitely flying under the radar. I think there's the potential that they're a top-10 team. They look like that at times.
But here's the catch: They've got to show they can win a big game. They always compete, but they've had trouble the last couple years closing out the big games. They've lost 11 straight to ranked teams going back to the 2003 NCAA Tournament. They had that game won at Wisconsin a couple weeks ago before collapsing at the end. Was it a fluke? Maybe. But I also think there's a good possibility that some past failures late in games have gotten into the heads of these players.
Q. Well, let's talk about that game. Michigan State's players really took some heat in the wake of Wisconsin's come-from-behind win. And Tom Izzo seemed genuinely angered by some of the comments made about his players. To what extent do you think the criticism's fair?
A. One columnist wrote that the seniors had "no heart." That was just a stupid column. But I didn't think Izzo should've given a lecture on the topic considering he basically initiated the perception that these seniors aren't tough enough, etc., and then perpetuated it over and over and over again the last couple years.
It was Izzo who was constantly critical of them in the past. He opened last season saying that these guys--Chris Hill, Alan Anderson and Kelvin Torbert--really hadn't accomplished anything because they hadn't won any championships like their predecessors. Izzo put enormous pressure on them and that became a season-long theme for the media and the fans after that. I think that burden has hurt them, perhaps overwhelmed them.
At the same time, I wouldn't count them out yet. They have a tremendous opportunity tonight against No. 1 Illinois. A victory there and who knows what could happen to their confidence.
Q. Did Tom Izzo create unrealistic expectations among Spartan fans by making three consecutive Final Four's? Or is that ancient history?
A. There's no doubt he created a monster. But I also think Tom's expectations at times are the most unrealistic. Reasonable fans and media don't expect MSU to win the Big Ten and go to the Final Four every year. Tom is so driven that there's a part of him that almost does expect that. That's a great trait to have--it's the reason he's so incredibly successful--but it can also be a negative at times.
As a reporter, you have to try to explain what happened and why, write about the good and the bad, etc. But if I were a fan, I wouldn't be disappointed at all with the last few years. They've been "down" seasons by Izzo's standards, but this team is still in contention for the conference title and going to the NCAA Tournament every year. That's not too bad. They'll be back cutting down the nets sometime soon.
Q. Izzo became known for defense and rebounding with those Final Four teams. These days it seems like he's winning more with scoring and good shooting (although the rebounding numbers are up this year). Assuming he didn't change his philosophy (which would be pretty hard for me to believe), will we ever see another Tom Izzo team that defends and rebounds like the "Flint-stones" did?
A. He was able to start recruiting some of the more highly rated players and those players are typically more gifted offensively. I think he believed he could teach those guys to play defense and rebound, too. Just recently, that's starting to happen a little more. Their defense is definitely improving. Look at Maurice Ager. In three recent games, a good defensive play by Ager has led to some of his scoring outbursts. They look like they're buying into this defense-leads-to-offense mentality.
Q. Is Paul Davis inconsistent or is that just a misconception based on the fact that he plays on a deep and balanced team?
A. I think he's definitely inconsistent. He's had some of his best outings in big games (Duke, for example), but he doesn't dominate in other games when he probably should. Izzo has tried to push his buttons in a lot of different ways. Sometimes it's worked, sometimes it hasn't. I think the word "enigma" is appropriate.
Q. Kelvin Torbert really intrigues me. His stat line is gorgeous (he leads the conference in three-point FG percentage) and, of course, coming out of high school he was hailed as the next Jason Richardson (if not MJ). Yet he comes off the bench. Do you know, is he OK with that?
A. K.T. is a total team player. I don't sense that it bothers him at all. He's been amazing to watch. A foot injury and horrible shooting fundamentals hampered him early in his career. But he worked hard to become MSU's defensive stopper for his first two years. He corrected his shooting flaws and now is an exceptional shooter. I can't believe how much he's improved in that area. His defensive tenacity is also starting to emerge again. One of the interesting aspects about covering college athletes is watching them mature. Torbert suddenly seems much more comfortable doing interviews. It happens a lot of times with seniors. He seems like he is becoming more of a leader for this team.
Q. Drew Neitzel got an awful lot of press (and Mateen Cleaves' number) in the preseason and my sense is that if you'd told fans at that point that he'd be averaging just 15 minutes and three points a game come February they would have been really disappointed. Yet State seems to be doing just fine anyway. Do the Spartans even need Neitzel this year? What's the future look like for him?
A. I guess there were a lot of unrealistic expectations for a 6-foot kid who wasn't playing against the greatest competition in high school. But he's a smart guy. He's accepted this role. Some freshmen get impatient and want to leave. He seems like he's dealing with it just fine. Chris Hill has done better than most expected at the point. That's given Neitzel time to develop. They need him to be solid but only in limited minutes right now. I think he'll be a pretty good sophomore and a really, really good junior and senior.
Q. Let's say you can have any non-Spartan Big Ten players for the new Dave Dye University team. Who's your starting five?
A. I'll start with a guy I respect a lot, Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson. It's fun to watch someone who is so intelligent and such a gamer. Plus, his fiancee can come sing the national anthem every game! After that, I'll take the easy way out: just give me Illinois' Dee Brown, Deron Williams, Luther Head, and Roger Powell.
Q. Forget conference. Who's flat-out the best player you've ever covered or seen in person?
A. Well, I saw Michael Jordan in person, so I guess that's an easy one. But perhaps the guy I enjoyed watching the most might have been Scott Skiles at Michigan State. I was a reporter for the State News, MSU's student newspaper, at the time. I was amazed by Skiles' intelligence and toughness. You knew right away he was really underrated and going to be a special player. I certainly didn't realize he'd be an NBA player at that point, but I really appreciated the way he played the game from day one.
Q. Off the floor: have any favorite coaches, past or present?
A. Can I say a football coach?
Q. (Puzzled) "Foot--ball"? Funny, we alumni of Illinois rarely bring up that particular sport. But go ahead.
A. Well, I really liked Morris Watts, who was Michigan State's offensive coordinator and an interim coach after Bobby Williams got fired. Here's what I liked about Morris: You could ask him a question about why he did this or why he did that and he didn't get defensive and think you were automatically second-guessing him. Sometimes we're just curious, sometimes we just need a quote to explain it, sometimes we're just trying to understand their thinking. Morris could deal with that. Some coaches can't. Sorry about mixing in some football, but I really, really liked and respected that about Morris Watts.
Q. Alright, back to the sport with a legitimate national champion--have any Final Four picks for us?
A. I'll go with Illinois, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Oklahoma State. My sleeper would be George Washington, which beat Michigan State and Maryland earlier this season. GW has fallen off a little since then, but it has some tremendous athletes who could make a strong tournament run.
Q. Prediction for tonight's game?
A. I don't think Michigan State would win at Illinois--and I think Illinois can win at Michigan State. But it's hard to imagine the Illini going undefeated. Tonight seems like the logical stumbling block. Still, for MSU to win, I think Ager has to have a huge game and perhaps Chris Hill will need to break out of his shooting slump.
The Breslin Center was nuts on Thursday for the Michigan game and it is going to be absolutely out of control tonight. That will be the difference.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa guard Pierre Pierce is under investigation in connection with a reported case of burglary, assault, and vandalism that is alleged to have occurred late last week at the West Des Moines home of an ex-girlfriend. No charges have yet been filed. Referencing charges brought against Pierce in 2002 for sexual assault, Des Moines Register columnist Nancy Clark says: "If Pierce is charged, he's done. The trust is broken. The goodwill of his university, his athletic director, his coach, his teammates, his fans, has been abused....There's no way he takes the floor at Carver-Hawkeye Arena again, even if the legal system allows for it." More here, here, and here.
Coverage of Illinois-Michigan State is plentiful--but not as abundant as it otherwise would be if not for media day at the Super Bowl and the Sammy Sosa trade....
Tom Izzo says if his Spartans play "very well" at home, they'll win, end of story. "I don't think we have to play phenomenal and they have to play poor." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says a win tonight for the Spartans "would be the big break for a program that's endured its share of tough breaks and broken dreams the past few years." (Good grief: you'd think he was talking about Michigan.) Schulz's colleague at the State Journal, Rob Schlissberg, apparently read Wonk's game preview even before Wonk did, for Schlissberg says he too will be watching Paul Davis vs. James Augustine. Dave Dye of the Detroit News says if Illinois wins tonight they stand a good chance of going undefeated in the Big Ten. Jemele Hill of the Detroit Free Press says tonight's game is "perhaps the most important regular-season game in Tom Izzo's 10 seasons as head coach."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper joins the estimable company of Wonk and Rob Schlissberg and trains his attention squarely on tonight's match ups in the paint. (Augustine profile here.) Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald says Bruce Weber deviated from his routine and began running his team through the Spartans' offensive sets a day early. Illini's-eye views of the Spartans here, here, and here. As long as he's in East Lansing anyway, Herb Gould, indefatigable Illini beat writer for the Chicago Sun-Times, sounds out Tom Izzo on who should be Big Ten Player of the Year here.
Yesterday Illinois became the first unanimous number 1 in the AP poll since Duke in 2001-02.
Purdue is still basking in the afterglow of Sunday's surprisingly decisive win over Michigan.
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody is puzzled by his own team. "The guys seem to work pretty hard, but just don't seem to have that much life," Carmody said. "I don't know if it's just the personality of the guys, or what. It might just be in the DNA and I can't do anything about it."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
STILL accepting nominations for the All-Wonk Team's replacement member!
Last week in a fit of unreflective adolescent pique worthy of a California ballot initiative, Wonk unceremoniously dumped Iowa's Jeff Horner from the All-Wonk Team (3.0). Alert readers will recall the pivotal role the Hawkeye guard played in his team's loss at Northwestern last Wednesday night, a game in which Iowa might fairly be said to have come apart like the proverbial cheap suit in the rain. Horner capped a multi-game shooting slump by missing two crucial free throws in OT. Worse, he inexplicably left Wildcat walk-on Michael Jenkins wholly uncovered for the game-winner. Thus the sudden opening on the All-Wonk.
(But wait! This very same Horner, ladies and gentlemen, went out Saturday against Indiana and--after doing time in Steve Alford's doghouse and sitting on the bench to start the game--recorded a very strong 16-point, nine-assist, one-turnover outing, leaving open the possibility that Jeff Horner may yet replace himself!)
The early balloting clearly favored Kelvin Torbert of Michigan State. But that was before fans of a certain undefeated team (and Wonk don't mean BC) got busy....
Wonk,
Deron Williams, Vedran Vukusic, and Aaron Johnson all fit in the "do one thing, but do it well" category, be it passing, scoring, or rebounding.
Chris Hill does a lot of important things well too.
If you actually want somebody to replace Horner as a point guard, I think Williams is the obvious choice, but then you've got three Illini guards on the All-Wonk team, and that's a lot.
Tom R.
Thanks, Tom! Others share your vote but without your hedges and qualifiers....
Hi, Wonk,
I'd like to state the case for adding the third guard of the Illini's celebrated trio, Deron Williams, to the All-Wonk team.
Although it's now become an overused cliche to describe great players, Williams can control and change the game without ever taking a shot. He does whatever it takes to win the game.
In the Wake Forest game he went to the bench early with two fouls. His final stats for that game? Eight points, 11 assists, and five rebounds. All the other Illini were shooting well and he was more than willing to deliver the ball.
He is averaging 13 points, four rebounds, and seven assists per game (likely wrapping up his third consecutive Big Ten assist title). His scoring might seem a little low but what other player has as many capable scorers on his team as Deron?
The Illini trio plays so well together that it is impossible to separate them. Williams deserves to be on the All-Wonk team. To leave him off is like separating triplets.
Keep up the great blog,
Jeff D.
Thanks, Jeff!
Other nominations?
Housekeeping note
Wonk is going to take a few days off this week after posting on the outcome of tonight's Illinois-Michigan State game.
He'll return fresh as a daisy Monday to take this blog straight through to April and the rollicking-good soap opera supplied yearly by post-Final-Four coaching changes....
And then he'll shut her down for the off-season like a Bar Harbor lobster pound....
Only to descend visigoth-like upon your free time yet again come November.
¶ 7:57 AM
Illinois plays at Michigan State tonight and, while of course anything can happen over the next two months, right now the Illini and the Spartans are clearly the two best teams in the Big Ten--statistically and, more importantly, in the standings. Thus the winner of tonight's game will lay claim to being the top team in the conference, period. If Illinois wins they will, of course, be undefeated both overall and in conference, two games up on both the Spartans and Wisconsin in the loss column. If it's State, they'll be tied with the Illini in the loss column but they'll "own" the tiebreaker, having beaten Illinois head-to-head in the year's only scheduled meeting between the two teams.
On paper the two teams are close to indistinguishable. Ken Pomeroy's points-per-possession-based efficiency ratings tell us that Illinois and Michigan State are the second and fourth best teams in the nation, respectively, on offense and 28th (Illinois) and 31st (MSU) on D. In other words, tonight should feature even match ups on both sides of the ball. Should, yes--but will it?
Illinois shoots just a little better than State and also takes care of the ball better (especially of late--see below). But the Spartans narrow this difference to the point of virtual non-existence with superior rebounding. Illinois, at third in the conference (or, if you wish, second in conference games only), is actually better on the boards than is commonly realized. But State's the best rebounding team in the Big Ten by a considerable margin. Their numbers on the boards are up noticeably from last year with virtually zero change in personnel, suggesting that prolonged exposure to Tom Izzo alone is enough to make one a better rebounder. (The only question here would be the traditional one: whether committing to the boards can lead to opportunities for your opponent in transition. This has not been an issue to date for the Spartans--but they haven't played a team as fast as Illinois.)
The only blemish on State's performance on offense has been a sudden and uncharacteristic knack for turning the ball over. Over their first four conference games they averaged just 10 TO's per game--over their last two they've averaged 18.5. (And the main culprit is even more surprising: Kelvin Torbert, sweet-shooting sixth man and defensive stopper, coughed the ball up seven times in just 40 minutes of combined PT in those two games.) Tom Izzo's team has been able to notch W's against Minnesota and Michigan while giving the ball away 20 and 17 times, respectively. Whether they could do the same against Illinois is open to question.
(Bonus fun fact, apropos of not much: Michigan State and Illinois are two of the least successful teams in the Big Ten at getting to the free throw line, ranking seventh and eighth, respectively, in FTA's per game in conference play. These same two teams are also, however, at the top of the conference in assists per game. Long-time alert readers (meaning those from before last week) may recall Wonk has wondered aloud whether assists, once some vague but outstanding level is reached, may actually be inversely related to FTA's. Are teams who move the ball via the pass rather than the dribble simply fouled less often?)
One welcome feature of tonight's game: there should be zero talk of "controlling the tempo." Neither team fears running with the other. MSU is the deeper team but thus far this season no Illinois opponent has been able to exploit the Illini's eight-man rotation. Both teams put multiple offensive threats on the floor. For Illinois, of course, this is seen as their strength and indeed their identity. For Michigan State, ironically, this same characteristic is sometimes termed a flaw: which Spartan, it is asked, will come up big? Make no mistake--when you hear this question, what's really being asked is: "Will a Spartan come up big?" Look at Illinois. No one really knows which Illini player or players will have the big game (although Luther Head is becoming an increasingly safe choice). But after 21 straight W's there is a widespread feeling, for better or worse, that someone will.
Whether or not they'll have the "big" games, the big men down in the paint on both teams appear to Wonk to hold the greatest potential for surprise--for good or ill. Your intrepid blogger thought Paul Davis looked as dominant in the first eight minutes of the Duke game as Wonk has seen any Big Ten player look this year. If State can get this kind of spurt from Davis tonight (though he's coming off a sprained ankle), it could be a game-changer. As for Illinois, they look to reigning conference Player of the Week James Augustine, whose abysmal scoring against Iowa (oddly coinciding with simultaneous beastly rebounding) was widely noted and critiqued but whose late dunks against Wisconsin almost single-handedly quieted a crowd that had seen 38 straight home wins.
Almost single-handedly. For Augustine had a partner in crime that night named Jack Ingram. Here's a comparison that just three short weeks ago Wonk never would have dreamed he'd be using: Ingram now reminds your intrepid blogger a lot of former Purdue Boilermaker and current Sacramento King Brad Miller. Like Miller, Ingram will never be termed gifted athletically. But also like Miller, he plays a game that is methodical, self-contained, and, at its best, lethally effective--even if he doesn't realize it. Ingram comes in, of course, when Augustine or Roger Powell gets into foul trouble. When it's Powell that comes out, the Illini put a team on the floor that, for all the talk of Illinois being "thin" on the interior, suddenly looks much bigger while, somehow, not sacrificing much in speed.
And so February opens with the Big Ten's two best teams playing for perhaps the only time this season. Two evenly matched track-team-fast lineups. The nominal "1-seed" playing on the home floor of the "2." One of the finest venues in college hoops.
It's big.
A talk with Dave Dye
Dave Dye covers the Michigan State Spartans for the Detroit News and also contributes to the News' Big Ten Weblog. In anticipation of tonight's game between the Spartans and Illinois, Dave talked to Wonk about Michigan State's season, its players (past and present), and a certain coach who, with the retirement of Gene Keady, is about to become the "dean" of Big Ten coaches....
Q. I've said this enough that the readers of this blog are probably tired of hearing it, but just so you know, Dave: I think Michigan State's really underrated nationally. They had one horrible game against George Washington, I'll grant you. But aside from that the Spartans have lost only at Duke and at Wisconsin--not too much shame there. So I think State's tougher than people realize. Am I wrong?
A. They're definitely flying under the radar. I think there's the potential that they're a top-10 team. They look like that at times.
But here's the catch: They've got to show they can win a big game. They always compete, but they've had trouble the last couple years closing out the big games. They've lost 11 straight to ranked teams going back to the 2003 NCAA Tournament. They had that game won at Wisconsin a couple weeks ago before collapsing at the end. Was it a fluke? Maybe. But I also think there's a good possibility that some past failures late in games have gotten into the heads of these players.
Q. Well, let's talk about that game. Michigan State's players really took some heat in the wake of Wisconsin's come-from-behind win. And Tom Izzo seemed genuinely angered by some of the comments made about his players. To what extent do you think the criticism's fair?
A. One columnist wrote that the seniors had "no heart." That was just a stupid column. But I didn't think Izzo should've given a lecture on the topic considering he basically initiated the perception that these seniors aren't tough enough, etc., and then perpetuated it over and over and over again the last couple years.
It was Izzo who was constantly critical of them in the past. He opened last season saying that these guys--Chris Hill, Alan Anderson and Kelvin Torbert--really hadn't accomplished anything because they hadn't won any championships like their predecessors. Izzo put enormous pressure on them and that became a season-long theme for the media and the fans after that. I think that burden has hurt them, perhaps overwhelmed them.
At the same time, I wouldn't count them out yet. They have a tremendous opportunity tonight against No. 1 Illinois. A victory there and who knows what could happen to their confidence.
Q. Did Tom Izzo create unrealistic expectations among Spartan fans by making three consecutive Final Four's? Or is that ancient history?
A. There's no doubt he created a monster. But I also think Tom's expectations at times are the most unrealistic. Reasonable fans and media don't expect MSU to win the Big Ten and go to the Final Four every year. Tom is so driven that there's a part of him that almost does expect that. That's a great trait to have--it's the reason he's so incredibly successful--but it can also be a negative at times.
As a reporter, you have to try to explain what happened and why, write about the good and the bad, etc. But if I were a fan, I wouldn't be disappointed at all with the last few years. They've been "down" seasons by Izzo's standards, but this team is still in contention for the conference title and going to the NCAA Tournament every year. That's not too bad. They'll be back cutting down the nets sometime soon.
Q. Izzo became known for defense and rebounding with those Final Four teams. These days it seems like he's winning more with scoring and good shooting (although the rebounding numbers are up this year). Assuming he didn't change his philosophy (which would be pretty hard for me to believe), will we ever see another Tom Izzo team that defends and rebounds like the "Flint-stones" did?
A. He was able to start recruiting some of the more highly rated players and those players are typically more gifted offensively. I think he believed he could teach those guys to play defense and rebound, too. Just recently, that's starting to happen a little more. Their defense is definitely improving. Look at Maurice Ager. In three recent games, a good defensive play by Ager has led to some of his scoring outbursts. They look like they're buying into this defense-leads-to-offense mentality.
Q. Is Paul Davis inconsistent or is that just a misconception based on the fact that he plays on a deep and balanced team?
A. I think he's definitely inconsistent. He's had some of his best outings in big games (Duke, for example), but he doesn't dominate in other games when he probably should. Izzo has tried to push his buttons in a lot of different ways. Sometimes it's worked, sometimes it hasn't. I think the word "enigma" is appropriate.
Q. Kelvin Torbert really intrigues me. His stat line is gorgeous (he leads the conference in three-point FG percentage) and, of course, coming out of high school he was hailed as the next Jason Richardson (if not MJ). Yet he comes off the bench. Do you know, is he OK with that?
A. K.T. is a total team player. I don't sense that it bothers him at all. He's been amazing to watch. A foot injury and horrible shooting fundamentals hampered him early in his career. But he worked hard to become MSU's defensive stopper for his first two years. He corrected his shooting flaws and now is an exceptional shooter. I can't believe how much he's improved in that area. His defensive tenacity is also starting to emerge again. One of the interesting aspects about covering college athletes is watching them mature. Torbert suddenly seems much more comfortable doing interviews. It happens a lot of times with seniors. He seems like he is becoming more of a leader for this team.
Q. Drew Neitzel got an awful lot of press (and Mateen Cleaves' number) in the preseason and my sense is that if you'd told fans at that point that he'd be averaging just 15 minutes and three points a game come February they would have been really disappointed. Yet State seems to be doing just fine anyway. Do the Spartans even need Neitzel this year? What's the future look like for him?
A. I guess there were a lot of unrealistic expectations for a 6-foot kid who wasn't playing against the greatest competition in high school. But he's a smart guy. He's accepted this role. Some freshmen get impatient and want to leave. He seems like he's dealing with it just fine. Chris Hill has done better than most expected at the point. That's given Neitzel time to develop. They need him to be solid but only in limited minutes right now. I think he'll be a pretty good sophomore and a really, really good junior and senior.
Q. Let's say you can have any non-Spartan Big Ten players for the new Dave Dye University team. Who's your starting five?
A. I'll start with a guy I respect a lot, Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson. It's fun to watch someone who is so intelligent and such a gamer. Plus, his fiancee can come sing the national anthem every game! After that, I'll take the easy way out: just give me Illinois' Dee Brown, Deron Williams, Luther Head, and Roger Powell.
Q. Forget conference. Who's flat-out the best player you've ever covered or seen in person?
A. Well, I saw Michael Jordan in person, so I guess that's an easy one. But perhaps the guy I enjoyed watching the most might have been Scott Skiles at Michigan State. I was a reporter for the State News, MSU's student newspaper, at the time. I was amazed by Skiles' intelligence and toughness. You knew right away he was really underrated and going to be a special player. I certainly didn't realize he'd be an NBA player at that point, but I really appreciated the way he played the game from day one.
Q. Off the floor: have any favorite coaches, past or present?
A. Can I say a football coach?
Q. (Puzzled) "Foot--ball"? Funny, we alumni of Illinois rarely bring up that particular sport. But go ahead.
A. Well, I really liked Morris Watts, who was Michigan State's offensive coordinator and an interim coach after Bobby Williams got fired. Here's what I liked about Morris: You could ask him a question about why he did this or why he did that and he didn't get defensive and think you were automatically second-guessing him. Sometimes we're just curious, sometimes we just need a quote to explain it, sometimes we're just trying to understand their thinking. Morris could deal with that. Some coaches can't. Sorry about mixing in some football, but I really, really liked and respected that about Morris Watts.
Q. Alright, back to the sport with a legitimate national champion--have any Final Four picks for us?
A. I'll go with Illinois, North Carolina, Wake Forest and Oklahoma State. My sleeper would be George Washington, which beat Michigan State and Maryland earlier this season. GW has fallen off a little since then, but it has some tremendous athletes who could make a strong tournament run.
Q. Prediction for tonight's game?
A. I don't think Michigan State would win at Illinois--and I think Illinois can win at Michigan State. But it's hard to imagine the Illini going undefeated. Tonight seems like the logical stumbling block. Still, for MSU to win, I think Ager has to have a huge game and perhaps Chris Hill will need to break out of his shooting slump.
The Breslin Center was nuts on Thursday for the Michigan game and it is going to be absolutely out of control tonight. That will be the difference.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa guard Pierre Pierce is under investigation in connection with a reported case of burglary, assault, and vandalism that is alleged to have occurred late last week at the West Des Moines home of an ex-girlfriend. No charges have yet been filed. Referencing charges brought against Pierce in 2002 for sexual assault, Des Moines Register columnist Nancy Clark says: "If Pierce is charged, he's done. The trust is broken. The goodwill of his university, his athletic director, his coach, his teammates, his fans, has been abused....There's no way he takes the floor at Carver-Hawkeye Arena again, even if the legal system allows for it." More here, here, and here.
Coverage of Illinois-Michigan State is plentiful--but not as abundant as it otherwise would be if not for media day at the Super Bowl and the Sammy Sosa trade....
Tom Izzo says if his Spartans play "very well" at home, they'll win, end of story. "I don't think we have to play phenomenal and they have to play poor." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says a win tonight for the Spartans "would be the big break for a program that's endured its share of tough breaks and broken dreams the past few years." (Good grief: you'd think he was talking about Michigan.) Schulz's colleague at the State Journal, Rob Schlissberg, apparently read Wonk's game preview even before Wonk did, for Schlissberg says he too will be watching Paul Davis vs. James Augustine. Dave Dye of the Detroit News says if Illinois wins tonight they stand a good chance of going undefeated in the Big Ten. Jemele Hill of the Detroit Free Press says tonight's game is "perhaps the most important regular-season game in Tom Izzo's 10 seasons as head coach."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper joins the estimable company of Wonk and Rob Schlissberg and trains his attention squarely on tonight's match ups in the paint. (Augustine profile here.) Lindsey Willhite of the Daily Herald says Bruce Weber deviated from his routine and began running his team through the Spartans' offensive sets a day early. Illini's-eye views of the Spartans here, here, and here. As long as he's in East Lansing anyway, Herb Gould, indefatigable Illini beat writer for the Chicago Sun-Times, sounds out Tom Izzo on who should be Big Ten Player of the Year here.
Yesterday Illinois became the first unanimous number 1 in the AP poll since Duke in 2001-02.
Purdue is still basking in the afterglow of Sunday's surprisingly decisive win over Michigan.
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody is puzzled by his own team. "The guys seem to work pretty hard, but just don't seem to have that much life," Carmody said. "I don't know if it's just the personality of the guys, or what. It might just be in the DNA and I can't do anything about it."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
STILL accepting nominations for the All-Wonk Team's replacement member!
Last week in a fit of unreflective adolescent pique worthy of a California ballot initiative, Wonk unceremoniously dumped Iowa's Jeff Horner from the All-Wonk Team (3.0). Alert readers will recall the pivotal role the Hawkeye guard played in his team's loss at Northwestern last Wednesday night, a game in which Iowa might fairly be said to have come apart like the proverbial cheap suit in the rain. Horner capped a multi-game shooting slump by missing two crucial free throws in OT. Worse, he inexplicably left Wildcat walk-on Michael Jenkins wholly uncovered for the game-winner. Thus the sudden opening on the All-Wonk.
(But wait! This very same Horner, ladies and gentlemen, went out Saturday against Indiana and--after doing time in Steve Alford's doghouse and sitting on the bench to start the game--recorded a very strong 16-point, nine-assist, one-turnover outing, leaving open the possibility that Jeff Horner may yet replace himself!)
The early balloting clearly favored Kelvin Torbert of Michigan State. But that was before fans of a certain undefeated team (and Wonk don't mean BC) got busy....
Wonk,
Deron Williams, Vedran Vukusic, and Aaron Johnson all fit in the "do one thing, but do it well" category, be it passing, scoring, or rebounding.
Chris Hill does a lot of important things well too.
If you actually want somebody to replace Horner as a point guard, I think Williams is the obvious choice, but then you've got three Illini guards on the All-Wonk team, and that's a lot.
Tom R.
Thanks, Tom! Others share your vote but without your hedges and qualifiers....
Hi, Wonk,
I'd like to state the case for adding the third guard of the Illini's celebrated trio, Deron Williams, to the All-Wonk team.
Although it's now become an overused cliche to describe great players, Williams can control and change the game without ever taking a shot. He does whatever it takes to win the game.
In the Wake Forest game he went to the bench early with two fouls. His final stats for that game? Eight points, 11 assists, and five rebounds. All the other Illini were shooting well and he was more than willing to deliver the ball.
He is averaging 13 points, four rebounds, and seven assists per game (likely wrapping up his third consecutive Big Ten assist title). His scoring might seem a little low but what other player has as many capable scorers on his team as Deron?
The Illini trio plays so well together that it is impossible to separate them. Williams deserves to be on the All-Wonk team. To leave him off is like separating triplets.
Keep up the great blog,
Jeff D.
Thanks, Jeff!
Other nominations?
Housekeeping note
Wonk is going to take a few days off this week after posting on the outcome of tonight's Illinois-Michigan State game.
He'll return fresh as a daisy Monday to take this blog straight through to April and the rollicking-good soap opera supplied yearly by post-Final-Four coaching changes....
And then he'll shut her down for the off-season like a Bar Harbor lobster pound....
Only to descend visigoth-like upon your free time yet again come November.
¶ 7:57 AM
