Friday, March 31, 2006
More on Kelvin Sampson....
As expected, Indiana has officially named Kelvin Sampson as their new coach. Not only that, IU has signed Sampson to a seven-year contract that will pay the coach an average of $1.5 million per year. (Zounds. That is a huge commitment for any university--especially one without a cash cow football program.)
So Sampson is now a Hoosier. After Wednesday's initial flurry of surprised--and, at times, unhinged--reactions, the proverbial second wave has arrived: hey, wait a minute, the second wavers say. Maybe this guy's a good, even great, hire. This second wave arrived in my in-box in the form of an excellent email from alert reader and current Oklahoma student James J., which included the following:
The reasons you give for liking Sampson focus almost completely on basketball, which is what he's supposed to have control over. But your reasons for not liking him both have little to do with basketball and are not entirely his fault. I hope you will give him a fair chance.
Well said, James! So let me be rightly understood as being firmly and unequivocally seated on the fence here, which is why I divvied up Wednesday's post into things I like and things I don't.
Not only am I all for giving Sampson a chance, I in fact, as a shameless Big Ten homer, badly want him to succeed: to keep the next Josh McRoberts in the Big Ten, to return the Hoosiers to a level where Assembly Hall will be bulldozed sooner rather than later, and to give the conference another program of the strength and consistency displayed by Michigan State or Illinois over the past few years.
Part of wanting someone to succeed, though, is having a responsible understanding of the obstacles to that success. So let me just clarity a couple points here....
On Sampson's record in the tournament. The 2002 Final Four notwithstanding, it's not good. The coach's supporters and detractors agree it's not good and thus give alternate explanations for it.
Supporter: "OU's NCAA flameouts were somewhat predictable. Sampson never really had the horses, and his teams were generally worn out in March because they'd played harder for longer than just about every team in the country."
Detractor: "After 12 years of enduring Kelvin Sampson basketball, we have figured out the man's modus operandi: play hard to start the season; experiment with lineups; give the younger guys a chance; pull out some wins you shouldn't early on; curl up in a ball and play as if somebody on the inside might be making illegal bets come tourney time."
Conclusion: Wait and see.
On the phone calls. Sampson acknowledges his program in Norman violated NCAA rules pertaining to contacting recruits. To supporters of the coach, the apposite response here is a roll of the eyes at the silly arcane NCAA rule book. Hey, I can roll my eyes with the best of them when it comes to silly arcane rules. But the point here is not the calls, per se, which, to parrot my Wednesday post, no one is claiming rise to a "Baylor-level" as far as seriousness. (Nothing, quite frankly, rises to the Baylor-level.)
Rather, the point here is what it says about the coach. As it happens, these particular rules are not arcane, they're black-letter: you can't call recruits that are too young to even be recruits yet. Sampson's staff called anyway--repeatedly and systematically. (Ask a rival coach, off the record, how trifling this is. Recruiting is everything.)
And that worries me. A worry that can be assuaged with clean living from today on, yes, but a worry nonetheless.
...and on Billy Packer
Thanks to everyone who's donated to the Billy Packer Retirement Fund. Donations (which, assuming Packer does not retire, will go toward tornado relief in Springfield, Illinois) will continue to be accepted through Monday night's national championship game. (Even if he decides to retire only after the under-4 timeout in the second half, it's still worth the effort.)
Along with the donations came email, much of it of the right-on variety. But let it be known that there were a couple alert readers who wrote in to say they in fact appreciate Packer's willingness to tell it like it is, as opposed to the loud but empty all-coaches-are-great cheerleading offered by (do I really even have to say his name?).
There is a precedent--a rather excellent one, actually--for such pro-Packer sentiments. Last year Jason Zengerle penned a spirited and eloquent defense of Packer in The New Republic. Praising Packer's "combination of arrogance and fearlessness," Zengerle likened the CBS analyst to Simon Cowell and saluted his "critical eye."
I've always enjoyed Zengerle's work. Still, reading this particular piece, I was led to wonder if Packer benefits from the attitudinal equivalent of the fat bald guy rule. The sovereign assumption here seems to be: this guy is so undeniably annoying, his analysis must be really good. For Zengerle, at least, this arrogance plus analysis equation nets out to a positive balance. Hey, to each his own....
But for me this same equation produces a decided deficit. The example that Zengerle cites as representative of Packer's level of analysis--Delaware State's use of their big man against Duke to get Shelden Williams out of the paint in the first round of last year's tournament--would of course have been spotted immediately by any other analyst besides you-know-who. So must we get slathered with all the arrogance in exchange for that simple piece of analysis? Of course not.
(I would also question whether the arrogance in question is really so "fearless," self-indulgence being a pretty good candidate for the opposite of courage.)
Packer's analysis is fine as far as it goes. He does one thing and does it pretty well: he talks matchups. But there are analysts who are better who don't make me want to hit the mute button. Specifically, there are analysts who do more. Rick Majerus can be flat-out odd, yes, but one of the pleasures of his commentary is his effortless ability to shift from discussing player technique to coaching strategy.
(Packer has also started to have problems seeing the game: responding to every whistle by saying there's been a foul called when actually the offensive player traveled or stepped on the end line, etc.)
In the end, Zengerle's critical analysis vs. shill dichotomy is false. It was false 60 years ago when Richard Hofstadter posed it as embracing the only two possible modes through which to write American history and it's false here.
You don't have to choose between being Billy Packer or you-know-who. You can be Jay Bilas.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
South Carolina beat Michigan 76-64 in Madison Square Garden last night to win the NIT. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Is this the best way to crown a champion?
On Wednesday I linked without comment to a couple of articles that basically pose the following question: given that neither Connecticut nor Duke (nor any other 1-seed) will be there this weekend, does not this Final Four feel a little ersatz?
The readers respond!
Since I am an Illinois alum, of course I was cheering on the Illini basketball team last year. They had a wonderful regular season. They were crowned Big Ten conference champions—an honor. So, yes, I felt a pang when UNC defeated them in the final game last year. I felt tempted to complain, “The best team didn’t win! We were better all year than the Tar Heels! They were just better than us tonight!”
But I put that temptation away. Settle it on the court.
Sure it’s more pressure. But most of us want to know who will perform best under pressure. We don’t want to know who’s just good “on paper” or “in practice,” or when fewer people are looking on.
Hemingway said that grace is “courage under pressure.” We pay to see that kind of grace. We want to be blessed by it, by the witnessing of it—a blessing I felt watching the boys of Mason defeat UConn last Sunday.
David H.
Carmel, IN
Thanks, David. ¶ 5:57 AM
As expected, Indiana has officially named Kelvin Sampson as their new coach. Not only that, IU has signed Sampson to a seven-year contract that will pay the coach an average of $1.5 million per year. (Zounds. That is a huge commitment for any university--especially one without a cash cow football program.)
So Sampson is now a Hoosier. After Wednesday's initial flurry of surprised--and, at times, unhinged--reactions, the proverbial second wave has arrived: hey, wait a minute, the second wavers say. Maybe this guy's a good, even great, hire. This second wave arrived in my in-box in the form of an excellent email from alert reader and current Oklahoma student James J., which included the following:
The reasons you give for liking Sampson focus almost completely on basketball, which is what he's supposed to have control over. But your reasons for not liking him both have little to do with basketball and are not entirely his fault. I hope you will give him a fair chance.
Well said, James! So let me be rightly understood as being firmly and unequivocally seated on the fence here, which is why I divvied up Wednesday's post into things I like and things I don't.
Not only am I all for giving Sampson a chance, I in fact, as a shameless Big Ten homer, badly want him to succeed: to keep the next Josh McRoberts in the Big Ten, to return the Hoosiers to a level where Assembly Hall will be bulldozed sooner rather than later, and to give the conference another program of the strength and consistency displayed by Michigan State or Illinois over the past few years.
Part of wanting someone to succeed, though, is having a responsible understanding of the obstacles to that success. So let me just clarity a couple points here....
On Sampson's record in the tournament. The 2002 Final Four notwithstanding, it's not good. The coach's supporters and detractors agree it's not good and thus give alternate explanations for it.
Supporter: "OU's NCAA flameouts were somewhat predictable. Sampson never really had the horses, and his teams were generally worn out in March because they'd played harder for longer than just about every team in the country."
Detractor: "After 12 years of enduring Kelvin Sampson basketball, we have figured out the man's modus operandi: play hard to start the season; experiment with lineups; give the younger guys a chance; pull out some wins you shouldn't early on; curl up in a ball and play as if somebody on the inside might be making illegal bets come tourney time."
Conclusion: Wait and see.
On the phone calls. Sampson acknowledges his program in Norman violated NCAA rules pertaining to contacting recruits. To supporters of the coach, the apposite response here is a roll of the eyes at the silly arcane NCAA rule book. Hey, I can roll my eyes with the best of them when it comes to silly arcane rules. But the point here is not the calls, per se, which, to parrot my Wednesday post, no one is claiming rise to a "Baylor-level" as far as seriousness. (Nothing, quite frankly, rises to the Baylor-level.)
Rather, the point here is what it says about the coach. As it happens, these particular rules are not arcane, they're black-letter: you can't call recruits that are too young to even be recruits yet. Sampson's staff called anyway--repeatedly and systematically. (Ask a rival coach, off the record, how trifling this is. Recruiting is everything.)
And that worries me. A worry that can be assuaged with clean living from today on, yes, but a worry nonetheless.
...and on Billy Packer
Thanks to everyone who's donated to the Billy Packer Retirement Fund. Donations (which, assuming Packer does not retire, will go toward tornado relief in Springfield, Illinois) will continue to be accepted through Monday night's national championship game. (Even if he decides to retire only after the under-4 timeout in the second half, it's still worth the effort.)
Along with the donations came email, much of it of the right-on variety. But let it be known that there were a couple alert readers who wrote in to say they in fact appreciate Packer's willingness to tell it like it is, as opposed to the loud but empty all-coaches-are-great cheerleading offered by (do I really even have to say his name?).
There is a precedent--a rather excellent one, actually--for such pro-Packer sentiments. Last year Jason Zengerle penned a spirited and eloquent defense of Packer in The New Republic. Praising Packer's "combination of arrogance and fearlessness," Zengerle likened the CBS analyst to Simon Cowell and saluted his "critical eye."
I've always enjoyed Zengerle's work. Still, reading this particular piece, I was led to wonder if Packer benefits from the attitudinal equivalent of the fat bald guy rule. The sovereign assumption here seems to be: this guy is so undeniably annoying, his analysis must be really good. For Zengerle, at least, this arrogance plus analysis equation nets out to a positive balance. Hey, to each his own....
But for me this same equation produces a decided deficit. The example that Zengerle cites as representative of Packer's level of analysis--Delaware State's use of their big man against Duke to get Shelden Williams out of the paint in the first round of last year's tournament--would of course have been spotted immediately by any other analyst besides you-know-who. So must we get slathered with all the arrogance in exchange for that simple piece of analysis? Of course not.
(I would also question whether the arrogance in question is really so "fearless," self-indulgence being a pretty good candidate for the opposite of courage.)
Packer's analysis is fine as far as it goes. He does one thing and does it pretty well: he talks matchups. But there are analysts who are better who don't make me want to hit the mute button. Specifically, there are analysts who do more. Rick Majerus can be flat-out odd, yes, but one of the pleasures of his commentary is his effortless ability to shift from discussing player technique to coaching strategy.
(Packer has also started to have problems seeing the game: responding to every whistle by saying there's been a foul called when actually the offensive player traveled or stepped on the end line, etc.)
In the end, Zengerle's critical analysis vs. shill dichotomy is false. It was false 60 years ago when Richard Hofstadter posed it as embracing the only two possible modes through which to write American history and it's false here.
You don't have to choose between being Billy Packer or you-know-who. You can be Jay Bilas.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
South Carolina beat Michigan 76-64 in Madison Square Garden last night to win the NIT. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Is this the best way to crown a champion?
On Wednesday I linked without comment to a couple of articles that basically pose the following question: given that neither Connecticut nor Duke (nor any other 1-seed) will be there this weekend, does not this Final Four feel a little ersatz?
The readers respond!
Since I am an Illinois alum, of course I was cheering on the Illini basketball team last year. They had a wonderful regular season. They were crowned Big Ten conference champions—an honor. So, yes, I felt a pang when UNC defeated them in the final game last year. I felt tempted to complain, “The best team didn’t win! We were better all year than the Tar Heels! They were just better than us tonight!”
But I put that temptation away. Settle it on the court.
Sure it’s more pressure. But most of us want to know who will perform best under pressure. We don’t want to know who’s just good “on paper” or “in practice,” or when fewer people are looking on.
Hemingway said that grace is “courage under pressure.” We pay to see that kind of grace. We want to be blessed by it, by the witnessing of it—a blessing I felt watching the boys of Mason defeat UConn last Sunday.
David H.
Carmel, IN
Thanks, David. ¶ 5:57 AM
Thursday, March 30, 2006
Give generously to the Billy Packer Retirement Fund
March 30, 2006
Mr. Sean McManus
President, CBS News and Sports
51 W. 52nd Street
New York, NY 10019-6188
Dear Mr. McManus,
Enough.
I've waited long enough. In fact, I've waited my entire adult life. Every year I hold out hope that this Final Four will be different. But every year Billy Packer shows up yet again.
How long must we fans of college basketball continue to suffer? This pain is inflicted on no other sport.
The Super Bowl is covered by a different announcing crew every year. The BCS title game doesn't appear to be the sole possession of any one announcing team. I literally have no idea which network is carrying the NBA Finals this year, much less who will announce the games. Heck, even the FOX announcers who've been doing the World Series for the last several years are newbies compared to Packer.
No, it's only the Final Four that's chained to the same analyst year in, year out.
Presidents come and go. Popes, Supreme Court justices, U.N. Secretaries General, Federal Reserve Chairmen, NFL Commissioners, even members of the Rolling Stones ("those damn kids," as Packer calls them)--they all rotate with more frequency than do your announcers for the Final Four.
And so I have a question:
Why? In heaven's name, why? Are we to believe you're swamped with emails from fans of Packer? ("Fans of Packer." There's an oxymoron, huh?) Do you think we like this state of affairs?
Are you under the impression that we want the Final Four covered by:
An analyst who came in a distant third behind Dick Cheney and Barry Bonds in a "Mr. Warm and Affable" contest?
An analyst with the inexplicable corrosive rage of an Edward Albee character?
An analyst who reportedly got into "a heated exchange with the entire cast" while taping a guest spot for "A Very Special Elmo Salute to Baby Pandas"?
Let me put it to you this way....
Packer doing the Final Four is a bit like having an insufferably pompous guy marry into your family. Said guy, attached as he is to someone or something so beloved, is simply unavoidable--and therefore all the more maddening. Cherished annual events that should be a source of unalloyed delight are instead approached with gritted teeth and a "let's just get through this" attitude.
And so this year I will continue to "act locally," extending my long-standing personal boycott of all CBS "Road to the Final Four" advertisers. This boycott will end only when Packer departs.
Until that happy day I will not stand in the ocean surf playing a stand-up bass and singing about the shrimp at Applebee's; I will not rent from Enterprise and drive a car full of children directly onto the soccer field; I will not paint my body and wear a cape to purchase insurance from my State Farm agent; and I will not evade pert questions from my significant other by lathering up with Head & Shoulders body wash. And please understand this is a great sacrifice for me because in any given week I would ordinarily do all these things.
Still, I don't want you to think all I offer here is merely a torch for destruction. No, sir, I've come with a hammer for building, as well. Here's my plan....
Let's buy him out.
I admit I don't know what kind of 401(k) you offer at CBS. But it can't be all that great or else C. Montgomery Packer wouldn't still be hanging around, am I right?
So how about we give him an early retirement package--in the form of some tasteful wallet-sized portraits of his favorite ex-Presidents? (Heck, he was probably friends with some of these guys.) I have to believe Packer would much rather count his monetary blessings than stoop to announcing a game with a (gasp) mid-major like (shudder) George Mason.
Anyway, that's my offer. I've even started the ball rolling by taking up a collection for his retirement in my blog.*
To paraphrase Hyman Roth: if I don't see Packer doing the early game Saturday, I'll know we have a deal. If I do, I'll know we don't.
Blogospherically Yours,
j.
P.S. I know it's not really your department but, while you're at it, can you see about keeping the "How I Met Your Mother" commercials down to less than 12 an hour? Thanks.
Donate here!
Yes! I want to contribute to the Billy Packer Retirement Fund. I wish Mr. Packer a long and happy retirement promulgating smugly dyspeptic criticisms of the condo association's selections for the shuffleboard tournament.
* Editor's Note: Should Mr. Packer not accept this generous offer and instead show up yet again at the Final Four this weekend, all funds collected here will be donated to the East Side Tornado Relief Fund in my hometown of Springfield, Illinois, where two tornadoes touched down on March 12 and caused millions of dollars in property damage.
¶ 6:04 AM
March 30, 2006
Mr. Sean McManus
President, CBS News and Sports
51 W. 52nd Street
New York, NY 10019-6188
Dear Mr. McManus,
Enough.
I've waited long enough. In fact, I've waited my entire adult life. Every year I hold out hope that this Final Four will be different. But every year Billy Packer shows up yet again.
How long must we fans of college basketball continue to suffer? This pain is inflicted on no other sport.
The Super Bowl is covered by a different announcing crew every year. The BCS title game doesn't appear to be the sole possession of any one announcing team. I literally have no idea which network is carrying the NBA Finals this year, much less who will announce the games. Heck, even the FOX announcers who've been doing the World Series for the last several years are newbies compared to Packer.
No, it's only the Final Four that's chained to the same analyst year in, year out.
Presidents come and go. Popes, Supreme Court justices, U.N. Secretaries General, Federal Reserve Chairmen, NFL Commissioners, even members of the Rolling Stones ("those damn kids," as Packer calls them)--they all rotate with more frequency than do your announcers for the Final Four.
And so I have a question:
Why? In heaven's name, why? Are we to believe you're swamped with emails from fans of Packer? ("Fans of Packer." There's an oxymoron, huh?) Do you think we like this state of affairs?
Are you under the impression that we want the Final Four covered by:
An analyst who came in a distant third behind Dick Cheney and Barry Bonds in a "Mr. Warm and Affable" contest?
An analyst with the inexplicable corrosive rage of an Edward Albee character?
An analyst who reportedly got into "a heated exchange with the entire cast" while taping a guest spot for "A Very Special Elmo Salute to Baby Pandas"?
Let me put it to you this way....
Packer doing the Final Four is a bit like having an insufferably pompous guy marry into your family. Said guy, attached as he is to someone or something so beloved, is simply unavoidable--and therefore all the more maddening. Cherished annual events that should be a source of unalloyed delight are instead approached with gritted teeth and a "let's just get through this" attitude.
And so this year I will continue to "act locally," extending my long-standing personal boycott of all CBS "Road to the Final Four" advertisers. This boycott will end only when Packer departs.
Until that happy day I will not stand in the ocean surf playing a stand-up bass and singing about the shrimp at Applebee's; I will not rent from Enterprise and drive a car full of children directly onto the soccer field; I will not paint my body and wear a cape to purchase insurance from my State Farm agent; and I will not evade pert questions from my significant other by lathering up with Head & Shoulders body wash. And please understand this is a great sacrifice for me because in any given week I would ordinarily do all these things.
Still, I don't want you to think all I offer here is merely a torch for destruction. No, sir, I've come with a hammer for building, as well. Here's my plan....
Let's buy him out.
I admit I don't know what kind of 401(k) you offer at CBS. But it can't be all that great or else C. Montgomery Packer wouldn't still be hanging around, am I right?
So how about we give him an early retirement package--in the form of some tasteful wallet-sized portraits of his favorite ex-Presidents? (Heck, he was probably friends with some of these guys.) I have to believe Packer would much rather count his monetary blessings than stoop to announcing a game with a (gasp) mid-major like (shudder) George Mason.
Anyway, that's my offer. I've even started the ball rolling by taking up a collection for his retirement in my blog.*
To paraphrase Hyman Roth: if I don't see Packer doing the early game Saturday, I'll know we have a deal. If I do, I'll know we don't.
Blogospherically Yours,
j.
P.S. I know it's not really your department but, while you're at it, can you see about keeping the "How I Met Your Mother" commercials down to less than 12 an hour? Thanks.
Donate here!
Yes! I want to contribute to the Billy Packer Retirement Fund. I wish Mr. Packer a long and happy retirement promulgating smugly dyspeptic criticisms of the condo association's selections for the shuffleboard tournament.
* Editor's Note: Should Mr. Packer not accept this generous offer and instead show up yet again at the Final Four this weekend, all funds collected here will be donated to the East Side Tornado Relief Fund in my hometown of Springfield, Illinois, where two tornadoes touched down on March 12 and caused millions of dollars in property damage.
¶ 6:04 AM
Wednesday, March 29, 2006
Sooner rather than later
Indiana will apparently announce as soon as today that Oklahoma coach Kelvin Sampson will be the new coach in Bloomington. Sampson reportedly told his players in Norman, OK, yesterday and met last night with IU athletic director Rick Greenspan and Indiana president Adam Herbert to negotiate the details.
What I like
Sampson's arguably been a Big Ten coach for years, the only problem being his team wasn't actually in the Big Ten.
Rebounding is second nature to Sampson's players: OU, with good but not stellar personnel, was the best offensive rebounding team in the nation this year.
And the man can recruit--the class he has coming in to Norman is rated fourth-best in the country. If he can do that at a football school in Norman, Oklahoma, imagine what he can do in Bloomington, Indiana.
What I don't like
I don't like the comically low graduation rates of OU players: tenth in the Big XII--the Big XII, a conference that, with all due respect to any readers from out yonder, isn't exactly populated with the Northwesterns and Michigans of the world academically speaking.
Nor, of course, do I like the specter of impending NCAA sanctions on the Oklahoma basketball program. True, the speculation this morning says that Indiana would never have selected Sampson without an all-clear sign from the NCAA to the effect that the impending sanctions in Norman will not be too dire. Still, regardless of the punishment the NCAA chooses to dole out, IU fans should harbor no illusions as to the behavior in question--specifically the conscious flouting (apparently) of clear and unmistakable rules. Non-permitted phone calls to recruits may not be Baylor-level as far as criminality, granted. But a couple months ago Gregg Doyel made a persuasive case that this is in fact Missouri-level stuff--the only difference being the coverage.
And what's the deal with the steady and virtually Knight-esque exodus of players leaving the OU program? Mind you, we're talking in more than a few cases about players who were getting PT in Norman. Before yesterday, of course, I already knew of Oklahoma transfer Lawrence McKenzie, simply because he's slated to help a Minnesota team that badly needs help this coming season. But some further investigation turns up a surprising number of additional refugees on the roads leading out of Norman: Ryan Humphrey, Drew Lavender, D'Angelo Alexander, and Brandon Foust, to name a few.
One last thing: despite Sampson's reputation, the Sooners' defense this season was actually nothing special.
The canary in the new-coach-hire coal mine
I've come to have a very simple and straightforward measure of how good a coaching hire is in any given case: what is the reaction of the fans of the coach's former program? For example, Illinois fans were fairly well devastated when Bill Self left in 2003. Same for Kansas fans that same year in the wake of Roy Williams' departure.
How about Oklahoma fans? Call me picky but this does not sound very devastated.
Links
Sampson's father, Ned, says the toughest part for his son is "leaving his players and the new recruits coming in." Sooner recruit Keith Clark says he doesn't know what he'll do yet. Marquette assistant Jason Rabedeaux, who served as an assistant at Oklahoma under Sampson, says he understands the coach's motivation: "He's moving to a job where in a lot of people's eyes Indiana basketball is viewed in the same way as Oklahoma football." Columnist Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman says Sampson's "future is more secure than the program he just left."
Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says simply: "Not sexy. Not a member of the family. Neither. Did you hear that noise? Thud." Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Jerry Brewer says Sampson "would be a fine coach for 90 percent of Division I teams. But for the Hoosiers, this move lacks pizzazz and sex appeal." At ESPN.com, Pat Forde says: "For the next few years, the temperature is going to be 1,000 degrees Kelvin under the chair of Indiana athletic director Rick Greenspan." (Cute.) Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler says Sampson is "Huggins Lite." Daily Herald columnist Mike Imrem seems puzzled by the hire. And Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti, acknowledging reports that IU was turned down by both Mark Few and John Calipari, wonders: "When Gonzaga and Memphis are considered better positions in 2006, what does it say about facilities issues and general fan psychosis at Indiana?"
Last word
In this morning's Chicago Tribune, Sampson also gets a welcoming slather of Skip Myslenski's brand of Oprah treacle. ("The acorn never falls far from the tree and so it is best to first view Kelvin Sampson in Pembroke, the North Carolina town where the next Indiana coach was raised," etc.) Bet you never saw indulgently lachrymose fluff like this in Norman, huh Coach? Welcome to a major media market!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan beat Old Dominion 66-43 in Madison Square Garden last night in the NIT semifinals. Courtney Sims led all scorers with 18 points. (More here.) The Wolverines will face South Carolina in the championship game tomorrow night. (Box score.)
Illinois and Kansas are reportedly locked in a battle for a prized Chicago-area recruit, 6-4 guard Derrick Rose, a junior out of Simeon High School. (In the recent past, prized Chicago-area recruits Julian Wright and Sherron Collins have both chosen Lawrence over Champaign.) The other schools on Rose's short list, according to his coach, are North Carolina, Memphis, and Virginia. (Virginia?)...Dee Brown was named to the ten-man John Wooden All-American team yesterday.
At FOXSports.com, Yoni Cohen ponders this 1-less Final Four: "The NCAA tournament doesn't determine the best team in college basketball. Rather, it determines the best team for six games in March. That's madness." And Kara Yorio of The Sporting News seconds Yoni's emotion, saying this Final Four leaves her "feeling cheated."
COMING tomorrow (delayed for a day by Kelvin Sampson)....
It's a Final Four Week tradition! This blog's annual helpful suggestion on what would truly be in society's best interest as regards a certain CBS Sports basketball analyst's schedule of activities for the weekend. Tune in tomorrow!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
An invitation to mockery
Any pre-pre-pre-season predictions for next season?
Matthew C.
Great. Having seen in vivid detail how hoops pundits are utterly powerless to predict what will happen over the course of just two weeks, let us now turn our attention to a year from now.
OK, fine. Here's my seat-of-the-pants sequence, admittedly offered in advance of any dedicated research on newcomers not named Greg Oden:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan State
Indiana
Penn State
Purdue
Michigan
Iowa
Northwestern
Minnesota
Bump Michigan State up a spot if Shannon Brown comes back. Bump Indiana up two spots if Robert Vaden and D.J. White both stay. ¶ 5:47 AM
Indiana will apparently announce as soon as today that Oklahoma coach Kelvin Sampson will be the new coach in Bloomington. Sampson reportedly told his players in Norman, OK, yesterday and met last night with IU athletic director Rick Greenspan and Indiana president Adam Herbert to negotiate the details.
What I like
Sampson's arguably been a Big Ten coach for years, the only problem being his team wasn't actually in the Big Ten.
Rebounding is second nature to Sampson's players: OU, with good but not stellar personnel, was the best offensive rebounding team in the nation this year.
And the man can recruit--the class he has coming in to Norman is rated fourth-best in the country. If he can do that at a football school in Norman, Oklahoma, imagine what he can do in Bloomington, Indiana.
What I don't like
I don't like the comically low graduation rates of OU players: tenth in the Big XII--the Big XII, a conference that, with all due respect to any readers from out yonder, isn't exactly populated with the Northwesterns and Michigans of the world academically speaking.
Nor, of course, do I like the specter of impending NCAA sanctions on the Oklahoma basketball program. True, the speculation this morning says that Indiana would never have selected Sampson without an all-clear sign from the NCAA to the effect that the impending sanctions in Norman will not be too dire. Still, regardless of the punishment the NCAA chooses to dole out, IU fans should harbor no illusions as to the behavior in question--specifically the conscious flouting (apparently) of clear and unmistakable rules. Non-permitted phone calls to recruits may not be Baylor-level as far as criminality, granted. But a couple months ago Gregg Doyel made a persuasive case that this is in fact Missouri-level stuff--the only difference being the coverage.
And what's the deal with the steady and virtually Knight-esque exodus of players leaving the OU program? Mind you, we're talking in more than a few cases about players who were getting PT in Norman. Before yesterday, of course, I already knew of Oklahoma transfer Lawrence McKenzie, simply because he's slated to help a Minnesota team that badly needs help this coming season. But some further investigation turns up a surprising number of additional refugees on the roads leading out of Norman: Ryan Humphrey, Drew Lavender, D'Angelo Alexander, and Brandon Foust, to name a few.
One last thing: despite Sampson's reputation, the Sooners' defense this season was actually nothing special.
The canary in the new-coach-hire coal mine
I've come to have a very simple and straightforward measure of how good a coaching hire is in any given case: what is the reaction of the fans of the coach's former program? For example, Illinois fans were fairly well devastated when Bill Self left in 2003. Same for Kansas fans that same year in the wake of Roy Williams' departure.
How about Oklahoma fans? Call me picky but this does not sound very devastated.
Links
Sampson's father, Ned, says the toughest part for his son is "leaving his players and the new recruits coming in." Sooner recruit Keith Clark says he doesn't know what he'll do yet. Marquette assistant Jason Rabedeaux, who served as an assistant at Oklahoma under Sampson, says he understands the coach's motivation: "He's moving to a job where in a lot of people's eyes Indiana basketball is viewed in the same way as Oklahoma football." Columnist Berry Tramel of The Oklahoman says Sampson's "future is more secure than the program he just left."
Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says simply: "Not sexy. Not a member of the family. Neither. Did you hear that noise? Thud." Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Jerry Brewer says Sampson "would be a fine coach for 90 percent of Division I teams. But for the Hoosiers, this move lacks pizzazz and sex appeal." At ESPN.com, Pat Forde says: "For the next few years, the temperature is going to be 1,000 degrees Kelvin under the chair of Indiana athletic director Rick Greenspan." (Cute.) Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler says Sampson is "Huggins Lite." Daily Herald columnist Mike Imrem seems puzzled by the hire. And Chicago Sun-Times columnist Jay Mariotti, acknowledging reports that IU was turned down by both Mark Few and John Calipari, wonders: "When Gonzaga and Memphis are considered better positions in 2006, what does it say about facilities issues and general fan psychosis at Indiana?"
Last word
In this morning's Chicago Tribune, Sampson also gets a welcoming slather of Skip Myslenski's brand of Oprah treacle. ("The acorn never falls far from the tree and so it is best to first view Kelvin Sampson in Pembroke, the North Carolina town where the next Indiana coach was raised," etc.) Bet you never saw indulgently lachrymose fluff like this in Norman, huh Coach? Welcome to a major media market!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan beat Old Dominion 66-43 in Madison Square Garden last night in the NIT semifinals. Courtney Sims led all scorers with 18 points. (More here.) The Wolverines will face South Carolina in the championship game tomorrow night. (Box score.)
Illinois and Kansas are reportedly locked in a battle for a prized Chicago-area recruit, 6-4 guard Derrick Rose, a junior out of Simeon High School. (In the recent past, prized Chicago-area recruits Julian Wright and Sherron Collins have both chosen Lawrence over Champaign.) The other schools on Rose's short list, according to his coach, are North Carolina, Memphis, and Virginia. (Virginia?)...Dee Brown was named to the ten-man John Wooden All-American team yesterday.
At FOXSports.com, Yoni Cohen ponders this 1-less Final Four: "The NCAA tournament doesn't determine the best team in college basketball. Rather, it determines the best team for six games in March. That's madness." And Kara Yorio of The Sporting News seconds Yoni's emotion, saying this Final Four leaves her "feeling cheated."
COMING tomorrow (delayed for a day by Kelvin Sampson)....
It's a Final Four Week tradition! This blog's annual helpful suggestion on what would truly be in society's best interest as regards a certain CBS Sports basketball analyst's schedule of activities for the weekend. Tune in tomorrow!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
An invitation to mockery
Any pre-pre-pre-season predictions for next season?
Matthew C.
Great. Having seen in vivid detail how hoops pundits are utterly powerless to predict what will happen over the course of just two weeks, let us now turn our attention to a year from now.
OK, fine. Here's my seat-of-the-pants sequence, admittedly offered in advance of any dedicated research on newcomers not named Greg Oden:
Ohio State
Wisconsin
Illinois
Michigan State
Indiana
Penn State
Purdue
Michigan
Iowa
Northwestern
Minnesota
Bump Michigan State up a spot if Shannon Brown comes back. Bump Indiana up two spots if Robert Vaden and D.J. White both stay. ¶ 5:47 AM
The Billy Packer Retirement Fund
Billy Packer has been doing the analysis on Final Four broadcasts for a very, very long time. So I wrote an open letter to the president of CBS Sports suggesting we give Mr. Packer an early retirement--starting immediately. Your donation will show you share my concern for my sanity--oops! No, I mean, for Mr. Packer's health and well being.
Please note: Should Mr. Packer not accept this generous offer and instead show up yet again at the Final Four this weekend, all funds collected here will be donated to the East Side Tornado Relief Fund in my hometown of Springfield, Illinois, where two tornadoes touched down on March 12 and caused millions of dollars in property damage. ¶ 5:40 AM
Billy Packer has been doing the analysis on Final Four broadcasts for a very, very long time. So I wrote an open letter to the president of CBS Sports suggesting we give Mr. Packer an early retirement--starting immediately. Your donation will show you share my concern for my sanity--oops! No, I mean, for Mr. Packer's health and well being.
Please note: Should Mr. Packer not accept this generous offer and instead show up yet again at the Final Four this weekend, all funds collected here will be donated to the East Side Tornado Relief Fund in my hometown of Springfield, Illinois, where two tornadoes touched down on March 12 and caused millions of dollars in property damage. ¶ 5:40 AM
Tuesday, March 28, 2006
BONUS Final Four edition PPWS!
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat known as points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by yours truly. Here are the current numbers for every starter and selected key reserves in the Final Four:
Scoring efficiency: PPWS
1. Joakim Noah, Florida (1.32)
2. Lee Humphrey, Florida (1.31)
3. Tyrus Thomas, LSU (1.26)
4. Ryan Hollins, UCLA (1.25)
5. Al Horford, Florida (1.24)
6. Arron Afflalo, UCLA (1.22)
7. Cedric Bozeman, UCLA (1.21)
8. Folarin Campbell, George Mason (1.18)
9. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA (1.18)
10. Taurean Green, Florida (1.18)
11. Will Thomas, George Mason (1.17)
12. Lamar Butler, George Mason (1.16)
13. Jai Lewis, George Mason (1.15)
14. Corey Brewer, Florida (1.14)
15. Darrel Mitchell, LSU (1.14)
16. Glen Davis, LSU (1.10)
17. Tony Skinn, George Mason (1.08)
18. Darnell Lazare, LSU (1.07)
19. Jordan Farmar, UCLA (1.04)
20. Walter Hodge, Florida (1.04)
21. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (1.03)
22. Darren Collison, UCLA (1.00)
23. Gabe Norwood, George Mason (0.99)
24. Garrett Temple, LSU (0.88)
The numbers back up what our eyes tell us: Lee Humphrey notwithstanding, this Final Four is heavy on the frontcourt. Fans who like their hoops old-school--light on the threes and heavy on the post moves--are in for a treat this weekend.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The latest on the Indiana coaching search: no news. (Tom Crean, for one, says he hasn't been contacted.) In the Big XII they move faster (see Iowa State, Kansas State, and Missouri) but with no other major programs competing with the Hoosiers for top candidates, it now appears IU athletic director Rick Greenspan may sit tight until after the Final Four.
Michigan plays Old Dominion tonight in Madison Square Garden in the semifinals of the NIT. Daniel Horton says any criticism of his coach, Tommy Amaker, is off-base: "It bothers me, because it's not on him. The team didn't perform like we should have." ODU coach Blaine Taylor says his team won't be intimidated by the Wolverines. (Well, duh.)
It's official: Minnesota guard Rico Tucker will not return to the Gophers next year. The San Diego native intends to transfer to another program, perhaps one closer to home.
COMING tomorrow....
It's a Final Four Week tradition! This blog's annual helpful suggestion on what would truly be in society's best interest as regards a certain CBS Sports basketball analyst's schedule of activities for the weekend. Tune in tomorrow!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Who's a mid-major?
Love your site, but what's up with:
"George Mason (the team) beat the Huskies 86-84 in OT yesterday to become the first mid-major to reach the Final Four since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985."
How are we defining "mid-major" these days? Was UMass from a "major"? How about UNLV? Don't you really mean "George Mason is the first crappy team from a non big six conference to reach the Final Four"?
Actually, replace the word "crappy" with "underfunded" and that's precisely what I mean. The idea that 1-seeds blessed with the likes of Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, and Marcus Camby were scrappy mid-majors is novel, to say the least.
¶ 6:07 AM
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat known as points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by yours truly. Here are the current numbers for every starter and selected key reserves in the Final Four:
Scoring efficiency: PPWS
1. Joakim Noah, Florida (1.32)
2. Lee Humphrey, Florida (1.31)
3. Tyrus Thomas, LSU (1.26)
4. Ryan Hollins, UCLA (1.25)
5. Al Horford, Florida (1.24)
6. Arron Afflalo, UCLA (1.22)
7. Cedric Bozeman, UCLA (1.21)
8. Folarin Campbell, George Mason (1.18)
9. Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, UCLA (1.18)
10. Taurean Green, Florida (1.18)
11. Will Thomas, George Mason (1.17)
12. Lamar Butler, George Mason (1.16)
13. Jai Lewis, George Mason (1.15)
14. Corey Brewer, Florida (1.14)
15. Darrel Mitchell, LSU (1.14)
16. Glen Davis, LSU (1.10)
17. Tony Skinn, George Mason (1.08)
18. Darnell Lazare, LSU (1.07)
19. Jordan Farmar, UCLA (1.04)
20. Walter Hodge, Florida (1.04)
21. Tasmin Mitchell, LSU (1.03)
22. Darren Collison, UCLA (1.00)
23. Gabe Norwood, George Mason (0.99)
24. Garrett Temple, LSU (0.88)
The numbers back up what our eyes tell us: Lee Humphrey notwithstanding, this Final Four is heavy on the frontcourt. Fans who like their hoops old-school--light on the threes and heavy on the post moves--are in for a treat this weekend.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The latest on the Indiana coaching search: no news. (Tom Crean, for one, says he hasn't been contacted.) In the Big XII they move faster (see Iowa State, Kansas State, and Missouri) but with no other major programs competing with the Hoosiers for top candidates, it now appears IU athletic director Rick Greenspan may sit tight until after the Final Four.
Michigan plays Old Dominion tonight in Madison Square Garden in the semifinals of the NIT. Daniel Horton says any criticism of his coach, Tommy Amaker, is off-base: "It bothers me, because it's not on him. The team didn't perform like we should have." ODU coach Blaine Taylor says his team won't be intimidated by the Wolverines. (Well, duh.)
It's official: Minnesota guard Rico Tucker will not return to the Gophers next year. The San Diego native intends to transfer to another program, perhaps one closer to home.
COMING tomorrow....
It's a Final Four Week tradition! This blog's annual helpful suggestion on what would truly be in society's best interest as regards a certain CBS Sports basketball analyst's schedule of activities for the weekend. Tune in tomorrow!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Who's a mid-major?
Love your site, but what's up with:
"George Mason (the team) beat the Huskies 86-84 in OT yesterday to become the first mid-major to reach the Final Four since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985."
How are we defining "mid-major" these days? Was UMass from a "major"? How about UNLV? Don't you really mean "George Mason is the first crappy team from a non big six conference to reach the Final Four"?
Actually, replace the word "crappy" with "underfunded" and that's precisely what I mean. The idea that 1-seeds blessed with the likes of Larry Johnson, Stacey Augmon, and Marcus Camby were scrappy mid-majors is novel, to say the least.
¶ 6:07 AM
Monday, March 27, 2006
The mid-major Declaration of Rights
(With apologies to George Mason (1725-1792), author of the original.)
A DECLARATION OF RIGHTS made by the Representatives of the millions of good people who attend or attended MID-MAJORS (so-called), assembled in full and free Convention in the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.; which rights do pertain to them and their posterity, as the basis and foundation of present gloating and future schedule-making.
Article 1
That all D-I teams are by nature equally free and independent, and have certain inherent rights, of which, when they enter into a state of tournament, they cannot, by any compact, deprive or divest their posterity; namely, the enjoyment of irrevocably destroying conventional wisdom, with the means of acquiring and possessing wins, and pursuing and obtaining Final Four happiness and fame.
Article 2
That all power is vested in, and consequently derived from, the actual performance on the court and not in the number of times your team's games have been done by Dick Vitale.
Article 3
That the game of college hoops is, or ought to be, instituted for the common benefit and happiness all fans, whether or not Billy Packer believes their team "belongs" in the tournament.
Adopted unanimously March 26, 2006
Verizon Center Convention of Mid-Majors
"George: G-E-O-R-G-E." Now how hard was that?
There's disdain and then there's disconnect: Connecticut, apparently, can't even spell the name of the opponent they lost to yesterday. No matter. They have the offseason to brush up on their spelling. [Update: they fixed it. But it took a while.]
George Mason (the team) beat the Huskies 86-84 in OT yesterday to become the first mid-major to reach the Final Four since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985. They won for a simple reason: they were the best team on the floor. Big bad prohibitive favorite 1-seed UConn was, late in regulation, reduced to playing the role of the scrappy underdog.
True, there was one span of a few minutes late in the first half where Connecticut was having its way and the Patriots, for a few seconds, trailed by 12. But with that singular exception, the notable aspect of yesterday was how the visual grammar was all wrong: it was George Mason that had a clear edge on the boards (posting offensive and defensive rebounding percentages of 43 and 61, respectively). It was George Mason that, "incredibly," was methodically feeding the post and getting scores from their bigs, especially Will Thomas. And it was Connecticut, a team whose name is synonymous with post defense, that was substituting frantically in a futile attempt to find someone who could stop Thomas. ("We got beat in the post, which we really haven't all year, and we got beat good in the post," said Jim Calhoun afterward.) Just to force OT the Huskies needed three missed free throws from the Patriots in the final 60 seconds of regulation and an amazing and improbable last-second lay-in by Denham Brown that bounced on the rim for what seemed like an eternity.
No matter. The Patriots, playing the same five players for much of the day against Calhoun's cast of thousands, closed the deal in OT, thanks in large part to a Kobe-esque jump-stop fadeaway jumper by Folarin Campbell. (And yet still another missed free throw gave the Huskies a last chance. But a three by Brown at the buzzer that would have won the game for UConn skidded off the rim.) Start the celebration and rewrite the history. (Box score.)
What now?
George Mason looks like a legitimate threat to put together six wins in the tournament because they've already won four games in a number of different ways. This is not a team where shutting down one Carmelo-sized offensive threat is "the key." Nor are Jim Larranaga's men riding a Providence-in-'87-brand wave of precociously hot outside shooting. (They're hitting about 42 percent of their threes in the tournament which, of course, is very good. But only about 29 percent of their shots in their four wins have been threes.) Consider....
The Patriots beat Michigan State with superior rebounding and outstanding interior offense. Then, on a day when they were beaten on the boards and their threes weren't falling (4-of-16), George Mason beat North Carolina by taking care of the ball and getting to the line. Against Wichita State, the men from Fairfax, VA, relied on excellent defense--more specifically, outstanding field goal defense.
And then yesterday: the Patriots won this game not because they stopped UConn but because UConn couldn't stop the Patriots. George Mason scored 86 points on just 69 possessions, netting out to a robust 1.25 points per possession. They did it with a run of hot outside shooting early in the second half and, as mentioned above, a late run of strong interior play. (One constant: this team isn't commiting turnovers. The Patriots have given the ball away to their opponents on only 16 percent of their tournament possessions.)
Proficient Patriot polymaths of George Mason, I salute you!
Links
Washington Post columnist Michael Wilbon says George Mason-over-Connecticut is probably "the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history." Ken Pomeroy says no, it's not: "UConn, while having a bunch of players with 'upside,' was a team that never distanced itself from the field. The thing to learn from this is that when a team doesn’t play up to its alleged potential for 33 games, why should we expect them to do so in game number 34?" At ESPN.com, Andy Katz thinks what the Patriots have done merits repeating: "Let's go over this again: The Patriots took out Tom Izzo, Roy Williams and Jim Calhoun, the latter a Hall of Fame member and the first two likely to be enshrined some day." Katz's colleague Gene Wojciechowski says the win against Connecticut is "more than an upset, it's history." Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News agrees ("historic"). And at cbs.sportsline, Gregg Doyel says "George Mason beat UConn because George Mason was better than UConn. End of story."
Best headline
Can't link to it because it's already long gone but for a brief time right after the game yesterday ESPN had this on its main page: "This One Goes to 11." Perfect.
And while no one was watching....
Pity 3-seed Florida, winners of what will go down as the most overlooked and little-remembered regional final in a long while, their 75-62 victory over 1-seed Villanova. The Gators rebounded over 57 percent of their own misses (Al Horford alone had eight offensive boards) while limiting the Wildcats to a level of shooting futility (27.4 effective FG pct.) even lower than that inflicted upon Memphis by UCLA Saturday night. Joakim Noah posted a 21-15 dub-dub for the victors while teammate Horford notched the rare ascending-numbers version of the same (12-15). Randy Foye, Allan Ray, and Mike Nardi shot 22 threes and missed 18 of them. Yes, 26 offensive boards sounds impressive for 'Nova--but keep in mind they missed 55 shots. Jay Wright would gladly have traded in a few offensive boards for a few threes. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
With each passing day it looks more and more likely that Iowa coach Steve Alford will stay right where he is. Yesterday Missouri named UAB coach Mike Anderson as their new head coach.
Gonzaga coach Mark Few has not talked to Indiana about their vacancy.
Minnesota guard Rico Tucker is reportedly mulling a transfer to another program. "He just needs to go somewhere where they press," says his father, Terry. "That's what he's best at."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Blatant double-standard?
Wonk,
I know your blog is about celebrating college basketball. I know your site isn't about whining and I know your site isn't about creating an "us against the world attitude" with respect to Big Ten basketball.
But the next time the national media denigrates Big Ten basketball, and my Badgers in particular, about a "grinding" style of play, please remember the following games, scores, and headlines:
"A Beautiful Grind" - ESPN.com regarding the UCLA/Memphis 50-45 final.
Villanova 60, BC 59 (in OT, no less).
Florida 57, Georgetown 53.
I won't direct you to the box scores. I won't direct you to the stats. I won't direct you to the multitude of tales regarding the great "athleticism" of the players on these teams. I'll just sit here and tell myself that the name on the front of the jersey makes no difference in how a game or team is perceived by fans and spun by the media.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have cows to milk and a cheesehead hat that needs repair.
Sandon K.
Not a bad point, Sandon. Though I, for one, would lift the Villanova-BC game well above the rim-denting brick fest that was UCLA-Memphis or the 56-possession still-life known as Florida-Georgetown.
¶ 6:00 AM
(With apologies to George Mason (1725-1792), author of the original.)
A DECLARATION OF RIGHTS made by the Representatives of the millions of good people who attend or attended MID-MAJORS (so-called), assembled in full and free Convention in the Verizon Center in Washington, D.C.; which rights do pertain to them and their posterity, as the basis and foundation of present gloating and future schedule-making.
Article 1
That all D-I teams are by nature equally free and independent, and have certain inherent rights, of which, when they enter into a state of tournament, they cannot, by any compact, deprive or divest their posterity; namely, the enjoyment of irrevocably destroying conventional wisdom, with the means of acquiring and possessing wins, and pursuing and obtaining Final Four happiness and fame.
Article 2
That all power is vested in, and consequently derived from, the actual performance on the court and not in the number of times your team's games have been done by Dick Vitale.
Article 3
That the game of college hoops is, or ought to be, instituted for the common benefit and happiness all fans, whether or not Billy Packer believes their team "belongs" in the tournament.
Adopted unanimously March 26, 2006
Verizon Center Convention of Mid-Majors
"George: G-E-O-R-G-E." Now how hard was that?
There's disdain and then there's disconnect: Connecticut, apparently, can't even spell the name of the opponent they lost to yesterday. No matter. They have the offseason to brush up on their spelling. [Update: they fixed it. But it took a while.]
George Mason (the team) beat the Huskies 86-84 in OT yesterday to become the first mid-major to reach the Final Four since the tournament was expanded to 64 teams in 1985. They won for a simple reason: they were the best team on the floor. Big bad prohibitive favorite 1-seed UConn was, late in regulation, reduced to playing the role of the scrappy underdog.
True, there was one span of a few minutes late in the first half where Connecticut was having its way and the Patriots, for a few seconds, trailed by 12. But with that singular exception, the notable aspect of yesterday was how the visual grammar was all wrong: it was George Mason that had a clear edge on the boards (posting offensive and defensive rebounding percentages of 43 and 61, respectively). It was George Mason that, "incredibly," was methodically feeding the post and getting scores from their bigs, especially Will Thomas. And it was Connecticut, a team whose name is synonymous with post defense, that was substituting frantically in a futile attempt to find someone who could stop Thomas. ("We got beat in the post, which we really haven't all year, and we got beat good in the post," said Jim Calhoun afterward.) Just to force OT the Huskies needed three missed free throws from the Patriots in the final 60 seconds of regulation and an amazing and improbable last-second lay-in by Denham Brown that bounced on the rim for what seemed like an eternity.
No matter. The Patriots, playing the same five players for much of the day against Calhoun's cast of thousands, closed the deal in OT, thanks in large part to a Kobe-esque jump-stop fadeaway jumper by Folarin Campbell. (And yet still another missed free throw gave the Huskies a last chance. But a three by Brown at the buzzer that would have won the game for UConn skidded off the rim.) Start the celebration and rewrite the history. (Box score.)
What now?
George Mason looks like a legitimate threat to put together six wins in the tournament because they've already won four games in a number of different ways. This is not a team where shutting down one Carmelo-sized offensive threat is "the key." Nor are Jim Larranaga's men riding a Providence-in-'87-brand wave of precociously hot outside shooting. (They're hitting about 42 percent of their threes in the tournament which, of course, is very good. But only about 29 percent of their shots in their four wins have been threes.) Consider....
The Patriots beat Michigan State with superior rebounding and outstanding interior offense. Then, on a day when they were beaten on the boards and their threes weren't falling (4-of-16), George Mason beat North Carolina by taking care of the ball and getting to the line. Against Wichita State, the men from Fairfax, VA, relied on excellent defense--more specifically, outstanding field goal defense.
And then yesterday: the Patriots won this game not because they stopped UConn but because UConn couldn't stop the Patriots. George Mason scored 86 points on just 69 possessions, netting out to a robust 1.25 points per possession. They did it with a run of hot outside shooting early in the second half and, as mentioned above, a late run of strong interior play. (One constant: this team isn't commiting turnovers. The Patriots have given the ball away to their opponents on only 16 percent of their tournament possessions.)
Proficient Patriot polymaths of George Mason, I salute you!
Links
Washington Post columnist Michael Wilbon says George Mason-over-Connecticut is probably "the biggest upset in NCAA tournament history." Ken Pomeroy says no, it's not: "UConn, while having a bunch of players with 'upside,' was a team that never distanced itself from the field. The thing to learn from this is that when a team doesn’t play up to its alleged potential for 33 games, why should we expect them to do so in game number 34?" At ESPN.com, Andy Katz thinks what the Patriots have done merits repeating: "Let's go over this again: The Patriots took out Tom Izzo, Roy Williams and Jim Calhoun, the latter a Hall of Fame member and the first two likely to be enshrined some day." Katz's colleague Gene Wojciechowski says the win against Connecticut is "more than an upset, it's history." Mike DeCourcy of The Sporting News agrees ("historic"). And at cbs.sportsline, Gregg Doyel says "George Mason beat UConn because George Mason was better than UConn. End of story."
Best headline
Can't link to it because it's already long gone but for a brief time right after the game yesterday ESPN had this on its main page: "This One Goes to 11." Perfect.
And while no one was watching....
Pity 3-seed Florida, winners of what will go down as the most overlooked and little-remembered regional final in a long while, their 75-62 victory over 1-seed Villanova. The Gators rebounded over 57 percent of their own misses (Al Horford alone had eight offensive boards) while limiting the Wildcats to a level of shooting futility (27.4 effective FG pct.) even lower than that inflicted upon Memphis by UCLA Saturday night. Joakim Noah posted a 21-15 dub-dub for the victors while teammate Horford notched the rare ascending-numbers version of the same (12-15). Randy Foye, Allan Ray, and Mike Nardi shot 22 threes and missed 18 of them. Yes, 26 offensive boards sounds impressive for 'Nova--but keep in mind they missed 55 shots. Jay Wright would gladly have traded in a few offensive boards for a few threes. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
With each passing day it looks more and more likely that Iowa coach Steve Alford will stay right where he is. Yesterday Missouri named UAB coach Mike Anderson as their new head coach.
Gonzaga coach Mark Few has not talked to Indiana about their vacancy.
Minnesota guard Rico Tucker is reportedly mulling a transfer to another program. "He just needs to go somewhere where they press," says his father, Terry. "That's what he's best at."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Blatant double-standard?
Wonk,
I know your blog is about celebrating college basketball. I know your site isn't about whining and I know your site isn't about creating an "us against the world attitude" with respect to Big Ten basketball.
But the next time the national media denigrates Big Ten basketball, and my Badgers in particular, about a "grinding" style of play, please remember the following games, scores, and headlines:
"A Beautiful Grind" - ESPN.com regarding the UCLA/Memphis 50-45 final.
Villanova 60, BC 59 (in OT, no less).
Florida 57, Georgetown 53.
I won't direct you to the box scores. I won't direct you to the stats. I won't direct you to the multitude of tales regarding the great "athleticism" of the players on these teams. I'll just sit here and tell myself that the name on the front of the jersey makes no difference in how a game or team is perceived by fans and spun by the media.
Now, if you'll excuse me, I have cows to milk and a cheesehead hat that needs repair.
Sandon K.
Not a bad point, Sandon. Though I, for one, would lift the Villanova-BC game well above the rim-denting brick fest that was UCLA-Memphis or the 56-possession still-life known as Florida-Georgetown.
¶ 6:00 AM
Sunday, March 26, 2006
Youth is served
Based on the results of yesterday's Elite Eight games, we know that one of the teams in the national championship game next Monday night will be very young. And very good.
(4) LSU 70, (2) Texas 60 (OT)
The Tigers are this year's Michigan State in that they beat the two top seeds in their region to get to the Final Four. But that's where the similarity ends, for LSU is getting it done with defense. Incredible defense played against two of the best offenses in the nation: Duke and Texas. These elite teams simply aren't able to get the ball in the basket against the Tigers. Texas actually achieved a slight edge on the boards in yesterday's game and turnovers were a wash. But the Longhorns made less than 28 percent of their twos--which is simply astonishing for a team that features LaMarcus Alrdridge and P.J. Tucker (who, combined, made 55 percent of their twos this season). In fact, LSU turned Texas into a POT yesterday: the only way the Horns stayed in this game was by making ten threes. (That and the fact that the Tigers were a woeful 3-of-18 on their own threes.) Tyrus Thomas was credited with only three blocks but he's reached the point now where actual blocks in the box score are immaterial: he changes opponents' shots merely by walking onto the court.
Not to steal the thunder of the following paragraph, but it already seems fair to say that the winner of their national semifinal game with UCLA may be the team that gets to 50 points. (Box score.)
(2) UCLA 50, (1) Memphis 45
Yes, the pace was a tad slow but not nearly as glacial as the score might indicate. There were in fact 63 possessions in this game, as opposed, say, to the 56-possession crawl-ball that was Florida-Georgetown Friday night. And there was some tenacious D played by both teams yesterday. Still, the shooting was simply awful. The Tigers missed 16 of their 18 threes. The Bruins missed 19 of their 39 free throws. Any game in late-March acquires a certain glow because of its momentous stature--and this game was no different. But among the momentous games of late-March, this was one of the more homely ones. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The rest of the Final Four will be written in today....
(11) George Mason vs. (1) Connecticut, Washington, D.C. (2:30pm ET)
Can a mid-major make it to the Final Four?
(3) Florida vs. (1) Villanova, Minneapolis (5:05pm ET)
Inside vs. outside.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:35 AM
Based on the results of yesterday's Elite Eight games, we know that one of the teams in the national championship game next Monday night will be very young. And very good.
(4) LSU 70, (2) Texas 60 (OT)
The Tigers are this year's Michigan State in that they beat the two top seeds in their region to get to the Final Four. But that's where the similarity ends, for LSU is getting it done with defense. Incredible defense played against two of the best offenses in the nation: Duke and Texas. These elite teams simply aren't able to get the ball in the basket against the Tigers. Texas actually achieved a slight edge on the boards in yesterday's game and turnovers were a wash. But the Longhorns made less than 28 percent of their twos--which is simply astonishing for a team that features LaMarcus Alrdridge and P.J. Tucker (who, combined, made 55 percent of their twos this season). In fact, LSU turned Texas into a POT yesterday: the only way the Horns stayed in this game was by making ten threes. (That and the fact that the Tigers were a woeful 3-of-18 on their own threes.) Tyrus Thomas was credited with only three blocks but he's reached the point now where actual blocks in the box score are immaterial: he changes opponents' shots merely by walking onto the court.
Not to steal the thunder of the following paragraph, but it already seems fair to say that the winner of their national semifinal game with UCLA may be the team that gets to 50 points. (Box score.)
(2) UCLA 50, (1) Memphis 45
Yes, the pace was a tad slow but not nearly as glacial as the score might indicate. There were in fact 63 possessions in this game, as opposed, say, to the 56-possession crawl-ball that was Florida-Georgetown Friday night. And there was some tenacious D played by both teams yesterday. Still, the shooting was simply awful. The Tigers missed 16 of their 18 threes. The Bruins missed 19 of their 39 free throws. Any game in late-March acquires a certain glow because of its momentous stature--and this game was no different. But among the momentous games of late-March, this was one of the more homely ones. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The rest of the Final Four will be written in today....
(11) George Mason vs. (1) Connecticut, Washington, D.C. (2:30pm ET)
Can a mid-major make it to the Final Four?
(3) Florida vs. (1) Villanova, Minneapolis (5:05pm ET)
Inside vs. outside.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:35 AM
Saturday, March 25, 2006
Did UConn really win that game?
Jim Calhoun says his team is "a team of lapses." Last night's "lapse" encompassed 25 minutes. (Yesterday I referred to "those patented weird UConn funks." Little did I know last night's funk would be more like a coma.) And yet they're 30-3 and in the Elite Eight. Embrace the paradox....
(1) Connecticut 98, (5) Washington 92 (OT)
I'm glad I wasn't liveblogging this game. If I had been I would have held forth with earnest sagacity early in the second half on how there was no possible way Connecticut could win. With 15 minutes left in regulation UConn had already turned the ball over 23 times. (After the game Calhoun gave credit to the disruptive D played by Washington. I think the coach was being more honest on the sidelines during the game when he was yelling at Marcus Williams: from where I sat I saw a lot of unforced errors.) But surprises were in store....First, and most importantly, the Huskies of the east stopped coughing the ball up. Second, of course, there was the crucial play with 13 minutes left where Brandon Roy went from having two fouls to sitting on the bench with four within five seconds. Roy was assessed his third personal and then slapped immediately with his fourth when his robust discussion with Rudy Gay resulted in a double-technical. (A double-technical is almost never a good call and it most certainly wasn't here. The situation merited a ref coming between the two and nothing more. Refs, please, remember your oath: first, do no harm.) Yet even with Roy sidelined for a crucial stretch of the second half, U-Dub still had this game within its grasp, leading 80-76 with 11 seconds to play. But that's when Mike Jensen decided to commit the dumbest foul in a Sweet 16 game since Dane Fife fouled Jason Williams in 2002. (And it wouldn't work out for Jensen the way it did for Fife.) With Marcus Williams about to finish a lay-in, Jensen came across the lane and hacked him: just like that, three points the old fashioned way. Roy made two free throws on the other end to put Washington up 82-79. No problem: Williams found Rashad Anderson, who sank the game-tying three with two seconds to play. And with the entire U-Dub team in serious foul trouble, there was not a single person in the Verizon Center last night that thought OT favored the Huskies of the west. Indeed, it did not. (Box score.)
(1) Villanova 60, (4) Boston College 59 (OT)
How amazing is it that this game went to OT with BC turning the ball over 21 times and shooting just 8-of-17 from the line? Those numbers demonstrate better than anything just how successful the Eagles' D was at making life miserable for the Wildcats. Villanova fell behind early and scrapped their four-guard lineup. Jay Wright's team couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat (38.3 effective FG pct.) but they didn't commit any turnovers and fought the Eagles to a draw on the boards. Yes, Randy Foye scored nearly half (29) of Villanova's points (60). But then he took a healthy plurality of their shots, too (he took 25; the team took 60). (Box score.)
(3) Florida 57, (7) Georgetown 53
Wow, this game was slow: just 56 possessions. The Hoyas shot just eight free throws; the Gators took 17. In a grind-it-out game that was otherwise remarkably even, this was the difference. One additional note: dub-dubs in games this slow are really hard to come by. So kudos to Joakim Noah for his 15-10. (Box score.)
(11) George Mason 63, (7) Wichita State 55
Note to all West Virginia bashers: you can win a Sweet 16 game without offensive rebounding. The Patriots proved it last night, cruising to an easy win despite recording just two (not a typo) offensive boards. The Shockers jacked up 24 threes and missed 21 of them. Will Thomas recorded the J.J. Gittes dub-dub: 10-10. ("As little as possible.")
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Can this level of hoops continue? I certainly hope so....
(4) LSU vs. (2) Texas, Atlanta (4:40pm ET)
There will, to say the least, be some athletes on display along the front lines of these two teams. Man, can't wait....
(2) UCLA vs. (1) Memphis, Oakland (7:05pm ET)
The Tigers want to play at a pace that's about 10 possessions faster than what the Bruins would like. Both teams are young--why did these youngsters (and, for that matter, LSU) make it this far while Kansas and North Carolina did not?
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:34 AM
Jim Calhoun says his team is "a team of lapses." Last night's "lapse" encompassed 25 minutes. (Yesterday I referred to "those patented weird UConn funks." Little did I know last night's funk would be more like a coma.) And yet they're 30-3 and in the Elite Eight. Embrace the paradox....
(1) Connecticut 98, (5) Washington 92 (OT)
I'm glad I wasn't liveblogging this game. If I had been I would have held forth with earnest sagacity early in the second half on how there was no possible way Connecticut could win. With 15 minutes left in regulation UConn had already turned the ball over 23 times. (After the game Calhoun gave credit to the disruptive D played by Washington. I think the coach was being more honest on the sidelines during the game when he was yelling at Marcus Williams: from where I sat I saw a lot of unforced errors.) But surprises were in store....First, and most importantly, the Huskies of the east stopped coughing the ball up. Second, of course, there was the crucial play with 13 minutes left where Brandon Roy went from having two fouls to sitting on the bench with four within five seconds. Roy was assessed his third personal and then slapped immediately with his fourth when his robust discussion with Rudy Gay resulted in a double-technical. (A double-technical is almost never a good call and it most certainly wasn't here. The situation merited a ref coming between the two and nothing more. Refs, please, remember your oath: first, do no harm.) Yet even with Roy sidelined for a crucial stretch of the second half, U-Dub still had this game within its grasp, leading 80-76 with 11 seconds to play. But that's when Mike Jensen decided to commit the dumbest foul in a Sweet 16 game since Dane Fife fouled Jason Williams in 2002. (And it wouldn't work out for Jensen the way it did for Fife.) With Marcus Williams about to finish a lay-in, Jensen came across the lane and hacked him: just like that, three points the old fashioned way. Roy made two free throws on the other end to put Washington up 82-79. No problem: Williams found Rashad Anderson, who sank the game-tying three with two seconds to play. And with the entire U-Dub team in serious foul trouble, there was not a single person in the Verizon Center last night that thought OT favored the Huskies of the west. Indeed, it did not. (Box score.)
(1) Villanova 60, (4) Boston College 59 (OT)
How amazing is it that this game went to OT with BC turning the ball over 21 times and shooting just 8-of-17 from the line? Those numbers demonstrate better than anything just how successful the Eagles' D was at making life miserable for the Wildcats. Villanova fell behind early and scrapped their four-guard lineup. Jay Wright's team couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat (38.3 effective FG pct.) but they didn't commit any turnovers and fought the Eagles to a draw on the boards. Yes, Randy Foye scored nearly half (29) of Villanova's points (60). But then he took a healthy plurality of their shots, too (he took 25; the team took 60). (Box score.)
(3) Florida 57, (7) Georgetown 53
Wow, this game was slow: just 56 possessions. The Hoyas shot just eight free throws; the Gators took 17. In a grind-it-out game that was otherwise remarkably even, this was the difference. One additional note: dub-dubs in games this slow are really hard to come by. So kudos to Joakim Noah for his 15-10. (Box score.)
(11) George Mason 63, (7) Wichita State 55
Note to all West Virginia bashers: you can win a Sweet 16 game without offensive rebounding. The Patriots proved it last night, cruising to an easy win despite recording just two (not a typo) offensive boards. The Shockers jacked up 24 threes and missed 21 of them. Will Thomas recorded the J.J. Gittes dub-dub: 10-10. ("As little as possible.")
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Can this level of hoops continue? I certainly hope so....
(4) LSU vs. (2) Texas, Atlanta (4:40pm ET)
There will, to say the least, be some athletes on display along the front lines of these two teams. Man, can't wait....
(2) UCLA vs. (1) Memphis, Oakland (7:05pm ET)
The Tigers want to play at a pace that's about 10 possessions faster than what the Bruins would like. Both teams are young--why did these youngsters (and, for that matter, LSU) make it this far while Kansas and North Carolina did not?
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:34 AM
Friday, March 24, 2006
Bitter tears in the Sweet 16
I've been watching hoops a long while and it's not often that you see a player out and out cry. (I know Darius Washington, Jr., said he was crying last year after he bricked his free throws at the end of the C-USA championship game against Louisville. But he pulled his jersey up over his head so we couldn't see.)
So it was striking, to say the least, to see easily the two most highly publicized players in the land, J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison, both get weepy last night. It was practically a chick flick!
Heck, I cried--because the hoops were so great and the Big Ten so absent. Only one boring game last night and three outstanding ones....
(4) LSU 62, (1) Duke 54
This game was all about defense: the winning team scored just 0.87 points per possession. So it's entirely fitting that the night's most dominant player, by far, scored just nine points and had only 25 minutes of floor time. Tyrus Thomas was sensational. If ever the phrase "credited with only five blocks" were apt, it is this morning: Thomas clearly got into the Blue Devils' heads. Rebounding and turnovers were even in this game--it came down to making shots. And, Shelden Williams notwithstanding (and even he was just 8-of-18), the Dukies couldn't do it. The Blue Devils went 5-for-26 on their threes. Redick, harassed all night by Garrett Temple, was held to 11 points on 3-of-18 shooting, the incredible part being that he was 0-of-9 on his twos. That is what shot-blockers can do. (Box score.)
(2) Texas 74, (6) West Virginia 71
Kevin Pittsnogle hit a three to tie the game at 71 with ten seconds to play. But credit Rick Barnes for not calling the customary timeout in this situation: he let play continue and it worked. A.J. Abrams did his best Tyus Edney impression for about 60 feet and then fed Kenton Paulino, who had a wide open look at a three with one second left. He nailed it....This game was West Virginia's season in miniature: no offensive boards (three) but no turnovers either (eight). Most of their shots were threes and the Mountaineers were in this game at the end because they were hitting those shots (15-of-33). But it wasn't enough. The Horns won this game on the interior, where they hit more than 60 percent of their twos. Soon-to-be lottery pick LaMarcus Aldridge (26-15 dub-dub) is, of course, a beast. P.J. Tucker (15-14) isn't too shabby either. Stat of the game: there were 30 rebounds available off of Texas misses last night. The Horns hauled in 17 of them. Incredible. And decisive. (Box score.)
(2) UCLA 73, (3) Gonzaga 71
OK, Illinois fans. Raise your hand if you flashed back to last year's Elite Eight game against Arizona in the final seconds of this one. Jordan Farmar was Jack Ingram to J.P. Batista's Channing Frye, stripping the ball from Batista off an inbounds pass under UCLA's basket and feeding Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for the go-ahead lay-in. The Bruins looked just as dead last night as the Illini looked against the 'Cats last year. Gonzaga had been in front the entire game, leading at one point by 17. But the Bruins scored the game's last 11 points. BONUS deconstruction of weeping! The weird part about Morrison crying was that there were still 2.6 seconds left. And, as it happened, Batista ended up having a pretty good Laettner-esque look off a full-court baseball pass that would have put the game in OT. Verily, Adam, remember your Eliot Ness: never stop until the fight is done.
(1) Memphis 80, (13) Bradley 64
Congratulations to the Braves, the pride of Peoria, for making it further than anyone imagined. (Further, this Illini fan might add, than any other team from Illinois.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Last night's weep-fest will be a very tough act to follow. Tonight:
(4) Boston College vs. (1) Villanova (Minneapolis, 7:10pm ET)
The Eagles have the worst defense of any of the 12 teams still playing. And the Wildcats' offense is, of course, superb. Even more ominous, the weakest part of BC's defense is on the perimeter. That being said, the Eagles' offense is outstanding in its own right, especially on the offensive glass. There should be some points put up in the Metrodome tonight.
(11) George Mason vs. (7) Wichita State (Washington, D.C., 7:27pm ET)
The Patriots play excellent defense and shoot the ball. That's a good combination. Only thing: George Mason needs to hit their shots; if they don't they're in trouble because their offensive rebounding is weak and they don't go to the line much. (Think Ohio State here: when the shots don't fall, that's it, party's over. No plan B.) And, as it happens, Wichita State's defensive rebounding is outstanding. So this game will come down to the looks given to Jai Lewis and Will Thomas and what they do with them. (Um, unless Sean Ogirri goes nuts from outside for the Shockers.)
(7) Georgetown vs. (3) Florida (Minneapolis, 9:40pm ET)
OK, you know how these little preview blurbs the past couple days have been saying this game or that features what should be an interesting collision between X and Y? Well, this time I really mean it: best interior shooting in the country (Florida) against that long Hoya front line that spooked Ohio State so. Let the sparks fly. (Granted, that Hoya D is surprisingly meh on paper. Have they matured suddenly or was the OSU game a fluke?)
(5) Washington vs. (1) Connecticut (Washington, D.C., 9:57pm ET)
These two teams share some notable similarities. (And not just their common nickname.) Neither shoots threes and both are ferocious on the offensive glass. But UConn's, uh, ferociouser: the very best in the nation at hauling in misses. And U-Dub won't get 28 more free throws than their opponent tonight like they did in their last game. (Nope, no bitterness here!) So how do the Huskies from Seattle win tonight? Answer: one of those patented weird UConn funks. Otherwise? Not a chance.
In today's less still-alive venues....
Another day with no news on the Indiana coaching search. (Hoosier AD Rick Greenspan is reportedly asking former IU players what characteristics the next coach should have.) And I think each passing day with no news lends more and more support to the notion that Indiana doesn't want to make this hire without first talking to Memphis coach John Calipari. Not to say Calipari's necessarily the first choice, mind you. Merely that IU has the apparent luxury of waiting and seeing. For all the talk of a coaching carousel, there really isn't one this year. (Unless you consider Bob Huggins getting out of the house at last and a one-day vacancy in Cedar Falls, Iowa, a coaching carousel.) And there won't be one until Indiana (or, conceivably, Missouri) starts one in motion by hiring away someone.
Profile of Purdue's incoming freshmen--Chris Kramer, Jonathan Uchendu, and Dan Vandervieren--here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
So, in a way, Illinois is still alive!
Has there been any mention of former Illini Kyle Wilson and his impact on the Sweet 16 Wichita State Shockers?
Best,
Don G.
Ah, Kyle we hardly knew ye. And I mean that literally.
Wilson was another one of Bill Self's Texas finds (a la Deron Williams, Jack Ingram, and Warren Carter) but the young man got zero PT (less than seven minutes a game) and left when Self left at the end of 2003. This year he's doing quite well for the Shockers, functioning, in effect, as an efficient cog in Mark Turgeon's strikingly balanced attack. (For one thing, Wilson's hitting better than 43 percent of his threes.)
Former Illinois bench denizen Kyle Wilson, we desperate Illini fans salute you! ¶ 6:38 AM
I've been watching hoops a long while and it's not often that you see a player out and out cry. (I know Darius Washington, Jr., said he was crying last year after he bricked his free throws at the end of the C-USA championship game against Louisville. But he pulled his jersey up over his head so we couldn't see.)
So it was striking, to say the least, to see easily the two most highly publicized players in the land, J.J. Redick and Adam Morrison, both get weepy last night. It was practically a chick flick!
Heck, I cried--because the hoops were so great and the Big Ten so absent. Only one boring game last night and three outstanding ones....
(4) LSU 62, (1) Duke 54
This game was all about defense: the winning team scored just 0.87 points per possession. So it's entirely fitting that the night's most dominant player, by far, scored just nine points and had only 25 minutes of floor time. Tyrus Thomas was sensational. If ever the phrase "credited with only five blocks" were apt, it is this morning: Thomas clearly got into the Blue Devils' heads. Rebounding and turnovers were even in this game--it came down to making shots. And, Shelden Williams notwithstanding (and even he was just 8-of-18), the Dukies couldn't do it. The Blue Devils went 5-for-26 on their threes. Redick, harassed all night by Garrett Temple, was held to 11 points on 3-of-18 shooting, the incredible part being that he was 0-of-9 on his twos. That is what shot-blockers can do. (Box score.)
(2) Texas 74, (6) West Virginia 71
Kevin Pittsnogle hit a three to tie the game at 71 with ten seconds to play. But credit Rick Barnes for not calling the customary timeout in this situation: he let play continue and it worked. A.J. Abrams did his best Tyus Edney impression for about 60 feet and then fed Kenton Paulino, who had a wide open look at a three with one second left. He nailed it....This game was West Virginia's season in miniature: no offensive boards (three) but no turnovers either (eight). Most of their shots were threes and the Mountaineers were in this game at the end because they were hitting those shots (15-of-33). But it wasn't enough. The Horns won this game on the interior, where they hit more than 60 percent of their twos. Soon-to-be lottery pick LaMarcus Aldridge (26-15 dub-dub) is, of course, a beast. P.J. Tucker (15-14) isn't too shabby either. Stat of the game: there were 30 rebounds available off of Texas misses last night. The Horns hauled in 17 of them. Incredible. And decisive. (Box score.)
(2) UCLA 73, (3) Gonzaga 71
OK, Illinois fans. Raise your hand if you flashed back to last year's Elite Eight game against Arizona in the final seconds of this one. Jordan Farmar was Jack Ingram to J.P. Batista's Channing Frye, stripping the ball from Batista off an inbounds pass under UCLA's basket and feeding Luc Richard Mbah a Moute for the go-ahead lay-in. The Bruins looked just as dead last night as the Illini looked against the 'Cats last year. Gonzaga had been in front the entire game, leading at one point by 17. But the Bruins scored the game's last 11 points. BONUS deconstruction of weeping! The weird part about Morrison crying was that there were still 2.6 seconds left. And, as it happened, Batista ended up having a pretty good Laettner-esque look off a full-court baseball pass that would have put the game in OT. Verily, Adam, remember your Eliot Ness: never stop until the fight is done.
(1) Memphis 80, (13) Bradley 64
Congratulations to the Braves, the pride of Peoria, for making it further than anyone imagined. (Further, this Illini fan might add, than any other team from Illinois.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Last night's weep-fest will be a very tough act to follow. Tonight:
(4) Boston College vs. (1) Villanova (Minneapolis, 7:10pm ET)
The Eagles have the worst defense of any of the 12 teams still playing. And the Wildcats' offense is, of course, superb. Even more ominous, the weakest part of BC's defense is on the perimeter. That being said, the Eagles' offense is outstanding in its own right, especially on the offensive glass. There should be some points put up in the Metrodome tonight.
(11) George Mason vs. (7) Wichita State (Washington, D.C., 7:27pm ET)
The Patriots play excellent defense and shoot the ball. That's a good combination. Only thing: George Mason needs to hit their shots; if they don't they're in trouble because their offensive rebounding is weak and they don't go to the line much. (Think Ohio State here: when the shots don't fall, that's it, party's over. No plan B.) And, as it happens, Wichita State's defensive rebounding is outstanding. So this game will come down to the looks given to Jai Lewis and Will Thomas and what they do with them. (Um, unless Sean Ogirri goes nuts from outside for the Shockers.)
(7) Georgetown vs. (3) Florida (Minneapolis, 9:40pm ET)
OK, you know how these little preview blurbs the past couple days have been saying this game or that features what should be an interesting collision between X and Y? Well, this time I really mean it: best interior shooting in the country (Florida) against that long Hoya front line that spooked Ohio State so. Let the sparks fly. (Granted, that Hoya D is surprisingly meh on paper. Have they matured suddenly or was the OSU game a fluke?)
(5) Washington vs. (1) Connecticut (Washington, D.C., 9:57pm ET)
These two teams share some notable similarities. (And not just their common nickname.) Neither shoots threes and both are ferocious on the offensive glass. But UConn's, uh, ferociouser: the very best in the nation at hauling in misses. And U-Dub won't get 28 more free throws than their opponent tonight like they did in their last game. (Nope, no bitterness here!) So how do the Huskies from Seattle win tonight? Answer: one of those patented weird UConn funks. Otherwise? Not a chance.
In today's less still-alive venues....
Another day with no news on the Indiana coaching search. (Hoosier AD Rick Greenspan is reportedly asking former IU players what characteristics the next coach should have.) And I think each passing day with no news lends more and more support to the notion that Indiana doesn't want to make this hire without first talking to Memphis coach John Calipari. Not to say Calipari's necessarily the first choice, mind you. Merely that IU has the apparent luxury of waiting and seeing. For all the talk of a coaching carousel, there really isn't one this year. (Unless you consider Bob Huggins getting out of the house at last and a one-day vacancy in Cedar Falls, Iowa, a coaching carousel.) And there won't be one until Indiana (or, conceivably, Missouri) starts one in motion by hiring away someone.
Profile of Purdue's incoming freshmen--Chris Kramer, Jonathan Uchendu, and Dan Vandervieren--here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
So, in a way, Illinois is still alive!
Has there been any mention of former Illini Kyle Wilson and his impact on the Sweet 16 Wichita State Shockers?
Best,
Don G.
Ah, Kyle we hardly knew ye. And I mean that literally.
Wilson was another one of Bill Self's Texas finds (a la Deron Williams, Jack Ingram, and Warren Carter) but the young man got zero PT (less than seven minutes a game) and left when Self left at the end of 2003. This year he's doing quite well for the Shockers, functioning, in effect, as an efficient cog in Mark Turgeon's strikingly balanced attack. (For one thing, Wilson's hitting better than 43 percent of his threes.)
Former Illinois bench denizen Kyle Wilson, we desperate Illini fans salute you! ¶ 6:38 AM
Thursday, March 23, 2006
This blog is now "Human Resources Wonk"
Coaching drama persists this morning at three Big Ten programs. That's a whopping 27 percent of all conference schools! Mass hysteria!...
Indiana says: we need a coach!
And some Hoosier fans apparently think John Calipari would be ideal.
Iowa says: we may need a coach!
Even if Indiana's not interested in Steve Alford, Andy Katz says Alford is one of four candidates for the Missouri job (along with Mike Anderson of UAB, Dana Altman of Creighton, and John Beilein of West Virginia).
Iowa released this statement yesterday from Alford:
I'm the head coach at Iowa. My family and I love the Iowa program and the community. We had a record-setting season with a second Big Ten Tournament championship and I look forward to continued success with this program.
As in the past, search committees and interested officials from other programs with openings for a head basketball coach have initiated contact. I'm flattered with the interest and the recognition of the outstanding season we had this year. With that success, comes attention and speculation that I cannot control. I have not scheduled any interviews with any other institutions.
That was enough to satisfy one endearingly guileless headline writer. (Iowans. They're so trusting.) But the rest of the world above pre-K read that and knew better. In fact, if anything the Clintonian loopholes in the verbiage ("have not scheduled" as opposed to "will not accept"--or how about simply "I will return next season"?) merely added fuel to the fire.
So cue the disgruntled booster! "I would like Steve to stay at Iowa for a long time and do well for us, but this stuff is getting old," said the president of the Des Moines area alumni. "If he's just using this as a stepping-stone job for someplace else, then let's move on and get someone who wants to be here." ("If"? Dude, in other news: Japan surrendered, Lucky Lindy made it, and the Applebee's ad is a violation of the Geneva Convention.)
Minnesota says: we have a coach! Um, such as he is....
And at Minnesota, athletic director Joel Maturi, in announcing last night that Dan Monson will return next season as coach, has mustered what must surely rank as history's most tepid endorsement of a coach's continued employment:
"I've told this to Dan, if this were the Timberwolves and I were the GM, maybe he wouldn't be coaching next year," Maturi said. "But I don't want to be the Timberwolves and I'm not the GM. I'm the athletic director at an academic institution that has some values, has some integrity and we're going to live that and walk the talk."
So Monson's staying, despite the fact that yesterday the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on its front page that the coach wouldn't be back next year. But Maturi, traveling with the team in Cincinnati where the Gophers lost in the NIT Tuesday night, told the players yesterday morning that Monson will indeed be back. "You have to believe in your bosses," Monson said yesterday, "especially in this day and age where there is so much out there that can be posted without checks and balances." (What's that all about? This was "posted" by the Star Tribune, a 139-year-old newspaper. It arrived in print on my doorstep just like it would have 50 years ago.) For his part, Strib columnist Patrick Reusse says "there was nothing to recommend Monson's return other than repeating the same tired excuse about inheriting a tough situation."
Epilogue. Late Tuesday night Monson called longtime (make that long, longtime) Star Tribune sports columnist and legend-in-residence Sid Hartman. "This is going to ruin our recruiting," Monson told Hartman.
Precisely. And next year's team loses Vincent Grier, Adam Boone, J'son Stamper, and Moe Hargrow. The Gophers' leading returning scorer will be Spencer Tollackson. (I would not want to be Dan Monson.) A cynic might wonder whether the University decided to keep Monson because buying out his contract next year will be $400,000 less expensive than doing so this year.
But the truth is almost certainly less calculating and more cacophonous. Clearly some powers-that-be wanted Monson gone; some wanted him to stay. The latter won out. For now.
One gentle reminder about rollicking good coaching soap opera....
The reliability and more specifically the durability of the information being relayed varies in direct proportion to the frequency of proper nouns affixed to the source. For instance on Monday behind ESPN.com's paid wall for "Insider" subscribers, Andy Katz cited a "source close to the process" as saying Indiana would contact Steve Alford about the coaching vacancy at IU. The next day Katz, posting on the free side of the wall this time, cited "multiple sources close to the situation" as saying that Indiana would not contact Alford. (Question: if it's free is it more reliable or less? Just asking!)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
With Chicago recruit Patrick Beverley on hand to watch, Michigan beat Miami 71-65 in Ann Arbor last night to reach the NIT semifinals. The Wolverines will face Old Dominion in Madison Square Garden Tuesday night. (And if I get any more email wondering about my absolute ontological lack of interest in the NIT, I think the words "the Wolverines will face Old Dominion" speak for themselves.)
Purdue has its recruiting sights set on "Keaton Grant, a 6-foot-4 guard from Bridgton Academy in Maine, and Takais Brown, a 6-8 power forward from Southeastern (Ill.) College."
Link here for today's episode in the continuing drama, Will Shannon Brown Go Pro?
Meanwhile, there's some thing called the Sweet 16 going on. Not that the Big Ten would know anything about it....
(4) LSU vs. (1) Duke (Atlanta, 7:10pm ET)
Should be a great collision between the best offense in the country (that would be referring to the Blue Devils) and one of the nation's top ten defenses. The Tigers' Tyrus Thomas is a beast on the defensive glass. But can LSU hold on to the ball and score enough points to win?
(13) Bradley vs. (1) Memphis (Oakland, 7:27pm ET)
There are no made threes in Bradley games--because the Braves never attempt them (treys account for just 29 percent of their shots) and their opponents never make them (shooting just 31 percent on their 3FGs). The Bradley D creates missed shots, both on the perimeter and inside. But can the Braves play at this speed? Among teams still alive, only Washington puts more possessions into each 40 minutes than does Memphis.
(6) West Virginia vs. (2) Texas (Atlanta, 9:40pm ET)
More than half the Mountaineers' shots are threes; if they're falling, John Beilein's team has a chance. If they're not--and if Texas is taking care of the ball--this might not be all that close.
(3) Gonzaga vs. (2) UCLA (Oakland, 9:57pm ET)
Speaking of enticing collisions, this one should be a beaut. With the early exits of Iowa and Kansas, the Bruins have the best defense still playing.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Genetic engineering comes to Champaign
How likely do you believe it is that Jamar Smith will learn to defend and Brian Randle will develop a jump shot over the summer? Will Bruce Weber resort to fusing them genetically in order to create a 6-8 swingman?
Bill P.
Ottawa, Ontario
My friend, if Randle could shoot like Smith or if Smith had Randle's height and hops, they'd be walking to a podium to put on a cap and shake David Stern's hand in a few weeks. ¶ 5:21 AM
Coaching drama persists this morning at three Big Ten programs. That's a whopping 27 percent of all conference schools! Mass hysteria!...
Indiana says: we need a coach!
And some Hoosier fans apparently think John Calipari would be ideal.
Iowa says: we may need a coach!
Even if Indiana's not interested in Steve Alford, Andy Katz says Alford is one of four candidates for the Missouri job (along with Mike Anderson of UAB, Dana Altman of Creighton, and John Beilein of West Virginia).
Iowa released this statement yesterday from Alford:
I'm the head coach at Iowa. My family and I love the Iowa program and the community. We had a record-setting season with a second Big Ten Tournament championship and I look forward to continued success with this program.
As in the past, search committees and interested officials from other programs with openings for a head basketball coach have initiated contact. I'm flattered with the interest and the recognition of the outstanding season we had this year. With that success, comes attention and speculation that I cannot control. I have not scheduled any interviews with any other institutions.
That was enough to satisfy one endearingly guileless headline writer. (Iowans. They're so trusting.) But the rest of the world above pre-K read that and knew better. In fact, if anything the Clintonian loopholes in the verbiage ("have not scheduled" as opposed to "will not accept"--or how about simply "I will return next season"?) merely added fuel to the fire.
So cue the disgruntled booster! "I would like Steve to stay at Iowa for a long time and do well for us, but this stuff is getting old," said the president of the Des Moines area alumni. "If he's just using this as a stepping-stone job for someplace else, then let's move on and get someone who wants to be here." ("If"? Dude, in other news: Japan surrendered, Lucky Lindy made it, and the Applebee's ad is a violation of the Geneva Convention.)
Minnesota says: we have a coach! Um, such as he is....
And at Minnesota, athletic director Joel Maturi, in announcing last night that Dan Monson will return next season as coach, has mustered what must surely rank as history's most tepid endorsement of a coach's continued employment:
"I've told this to Dan, if this were the Timberwolves and I were the GM, maybe he wouldn't be coaching next year," Maturi said. "But I don't want to be the Timberwolves and I'm not the GM. I'm the athletic director at an academic institution that has some values, has some integrity and we're going to live that and walk the talk."
So Monson's staying, despite the fact that yesterday the Minneapolis Star Tribune reported on its front page that the coach wouldn't be back next year. But Maturi, traveling with the team in Cincinnati where the Gophers lost in the NIT Tuesday night, told the players yesterday morning that Monson will indeed be back. "You have to believe in your bosses," Monson said yesterday, "especially in this day and age where there is so much out there that can be posted without checks and balances." (What's that all about? This was "posted" by the Star Tribune, a 139-year-old newspaper. It arrived in print on my doorstep just like it would have 50 years ago.) For his part, Strib columnist Patrick Reusse says "there was nothing to recommend Monson's return other than repeating the same tired excuse about inheriting a tough situation."
Epilogue. Late Tuesday night Monson called longtime (make that long, longtime) Star Tribune sports columnist and legend-in-residence Sid Hartman. "This is going to ruin our recruiting," Monson told Hartman.
Precisely. And next year's team loses Vincent Grier, Adam Boone, J'son Stamper, and Moe Hargrow. The Gophers' leading returning scorer will be Spencer Tollackson. (I would not want to be Dan Monson.) A cynic might wonder whether the University decided to keep Monson because buying out his contract next year will be $400,000 less expensive than doing so this year.
But the truth is almost certainly less calculating and more cacophonous. Clearly some powers-that-be wanted Monson gone; some wanted him to stay. The latter won out. For now.
One gentle reminder about rollicking good coaching soap opera....
The reliability and more specifically the durability of the information being relayed varies in direct proportion to the frequency of proper nouns affixed to the source. For instance on Monday behind ESPN.com's paid wall for "Insider" subscribers, Andy Katz cited a "source close to the process" as saying Indiana would contact Steve Alford about the coaching vacancy at IU. The next day Katz, posting on the free side of the wall this time, cited "multiple sources close to the situation" as saying that Indiana would not contact Alford. (Question: if it's free is it more reliable or less? Just asking!)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
With Chicago recruit Patrick Beverley on hand to watch, Michigan beat Miami 71-65 in Ann Arbor last night to reach the NIT semifinals. The Wolverines will face Old Dominion in Madison Square Garden Tuesday night. (And if I get any more email wondering about my absolute ontological lack of interest in the NIT, I think the words "the Wolverines will face Old Dominion" speak for themselves.)
Purdue has its recruiting sights set on "Keaton Grant, a 6-foot-4 guard from Bridgton Academy in Maine, and Takais Brown, a 6-8 power forward from Southeastern (Ill.) College."
Link here for today's episode in the continuing drama, Will Shannon Brown Go Pro?
Meanwhile, there's some thing called the Sweet 16 going on. Not that the Big Ten would know anything about it....
(4) LSU vs. (1) Duke (Atlanta, 7:10pm ET)
Should be a great collision between the best offense in the country (that would be referring to the Blue Devils) and one of the nation's top ten defenses. The Tigers' Tyrus Thomas is a beast on the defensive glass. But can LSU hold on to the ball and score enough points to win?
(13) Bradley vs. (1) Memphis (Oakland, 7:27pm ET)
There are no made threes in Bradley games--because the Braves never attempt them (treys account for just 29 percent of their shots) and their opponents never make them (shooting just 31 percent on their 3FGs). The Bradley D creates missed shots, both on the perimeter and inside. But can the Braves play at this speed? Among teams still alive, only Washington puts more possessions into each 40 minutes than does Memphis.
(6) West Virginia vs. (2) Texas (Atlanta, 9:40pm ET)
More than half the Mountaineers' shots are threes; if they're falling, John Beilein's team has a chance. If they're not--and if Texas is taking care of the ball--this might not be all that close.
(3) Gonzaga vs. (2) UCLA (Oakland, 9:57pm ET)
Speaking of enticing collisions, this one should be a beaut. With the early exits of Iowa and Kansas, the Bruins have the best defense still playing.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Genetic engineering comes to Champaign
How likely do you believe it is that Jamar Smith will learn to defend and Brian Randle will develop a jump shot over the summer? Will Bruce Weber resort to fusing them genetically in order to create a 6-8 swingman?
Bill P.
Ottawa, Ontario
My friend, if Randle could shoot like Smith or if Smith had Randle's height and hops, they'd be walking to a podium to put on a cap and shake David Stern's hand in a few weeks. ¶ 5:21 AM
Wednesday, March 22, 2006
Monson gone?
Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting this morning that Minnesota coach Dan Monson "is not expected to return next season." Reports suggest Monson may take the head coaching job at Idaho, his alma mater and the school where his father, Don, coached from 1978 to 1983.
Whether or not Monson's expected exit from Minnesota will be voluntary is apparently yet to be determined: "It's unclear whether Monson will be fired or reach a buyout agreement," Shelman reports.
Monson was brought to the Twin Cities from Gonzaga in 1999 to take over a Gopher program brought low by an academic cheating scandal under previous coach Clem Haskins.
The Gophers' season ended last night with a 76-62 loss at Cincinnati in the NIT.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Maybe Steve Alford won't be returning to Indiana after all. At ESPN.com Andy Katz is citing the inevitable "source close to the situation" as saying that "Indiana's search committee let Alford's representation know that the Hoosiers would only be bringing in two candidates and as of Tuesday Alford wasn't one of them. (Oracular Hoosier observer Terry Hutchens has helpfully ranked the top ten candidates this morning. Top three: Mark Few, Tom Crean, and Billy Gillispie.) At the same time, Missouri athletic director Mike Alden has received permission from Iowa athletic director Bob Bowlsby to talk to Alford about coaching the Tigers. And if the Hawkeyes do end up with a coaching vacancy, Greg McDermott won't be an option: he has accepted the job at Iowa State.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says he may advise Shannon Brown to participate in an NBA predraft camp in early June. If Brown did attend the camp he would still have until June 17 to remove his name from consideration for the draft. Izzo says that in his years in East Lansing he's advised only one other Spartan undergraduate to attend the predraft camp: Jason Richardson....Izzo's also still stewing about his team's season: "I think this is one of the few times in my career here as a head coach that we didn't get done what I think we were capable of getting done....There's a lot of aspects of it. You know, was this as good a home crowd as it was five years ago? Anybody here think it was? I'm gonna get killed for saying that, but is it? No."
Illinois coach Bruce Weber is sounding a Norman Dale note with regard to next year: "Everyone has to improve their skill levels, get back to basketball basics." More: "I thought the thing that hurt us this year, and it was obvious down the stretch, was [not] having somebody who could create, whether for themselves or for a teammate to get open." Amen, brother.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:46 AM
Jeff Shelman of the Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting this morning that Minnesota coach Dan Monson "is not expected to return next season." Reports suggest Monson may take the head coaching job at Idaho, his alma mater and the school where his father, Don, coached from 1978 to 1983.
Whether or not Monson's expected exit from Minnesota will be voluntary is apparently yet to be determined: "It's unclear whether Monson will be fired or reach a buyout agreement," Shelman reports.
Monson was brought to the Twin Cities from Gonzaga in 1999 to take over a Gopher program brought low by an academic cheating scandal under previous coach Clem Haskins.
The Gophers' season ended last night with a 76-62 loss at Cincinnati in the NIT.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Maybe Steve Alford won't be returning to Indiana after all. At ESPN.com Andy Katz is citing the inevitable "source close to the situation" as saying that "Indiana's search committee let Alford's representation know that the Hoosiers would only be bringing in two candidates and as of Tuesday Alford wasn't one of them. (Oracular Hoosier observer Terry Hutchens has helpfully ranked the top ten candidates this morning. Top three: Mark Few, Tom Crean, and Billy Gillispie.) At the same time, Missouri athletic director Mike Alden has received permission from Iowa athletic director Bob Bowlsby to talk to Alford about coaching the Tigers. And if the Hawkeyes do end up with a coaching vacancy, Greg McDermott won't be an option: he has accepted the job at Iowa State.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says he may advise Shannon Brown to participate in an NBA predraft camp in early June. If Brown did attend the camp he would still have until June 17 to remove his name from consideration for the draft. Izzo says that in his years in East Lansing he's advised only one other Spartan undergraduate to attend the predraft camp: Jason Richardson....Izzo's also still stewing about his team's season: "I think this is one of the few times in my career here as a head coach that we didn't get done what I think we were capable of getting done....There's a lot of aspects of it. You know, was this as good a home crowd as it was five years ago? Anybody here think it was? I'm gonna get killed for saying that, but is it? No."
Illinois coach Bruce Weber is sounding a Norman Dale note with regard to next year: "Everyone has to improve their skill levels, get back to basketball basics." More: "I thought the thing that hurt us this year, and it was obvious down the stretch, was [not] having somebody who could create, whether for themselves or for a teammate to get open." Amen, brother.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:46 AM
Tuesday, March 21, 2006
BONUS Sweet 16 edition PPWS!
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat known as points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by yours truly. Here are the current numbers for the most efficient scorers in the Sweet 16:
Scoring efficiency: PPWS top 20
1. Lee Humphrey, Florida (1.35)
2. Joakim Noah, Florida (1.33)
3. Mike Gansey, West Virginia (1.32)
4. J.P. Batista, Gonzaga (1.30)
5. Josh McRoberts, Duke (1.29)
6. Hilton Armstrong, Connecticut (1.29)
7. J.J. Redick, Duke (1.28)
8. Darrel Owens, Georgetown (1.27)
9. Shelden Williams, Duke (1.27)
10. Louis Hinnant, Boston College (1.27)
11. Ryan Appleby, Washington (1.26)
12. Sean Ogirri, Wichita State (1.26)
13. Tyrus Thomas, LSU (1.25)
14. Al Horford, Florida (1.25)
15. Ryan Hollins, UCLA (1.25)
16. Roy Hibbert, Georgetown (1.25)
17. Cedric Bozeman, UCLA (1.24)
18. Arron Afflalo, UCLA (1.23)
19. Brandon Roy, Washington (1.22)
20. Tyrese Rice, Boston College (1.22)
Other notables....
Adam Morrison, Gonzaga (1.21)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas (1.20)
Kevin Pittsnoggle, West Virginia (1.20)
Craig Smith, Boston College (1.20)
Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley (1.17)
Jared Dudley, Boston College (1.16)
Jai Lewis, George Mason (1.16)
Rashad Anderson, Connecticut (1.14)
Allan Ray, Villanova (1.14)
P.J. Tucker, Texas (1.13)
Josh Boone, Connecticut (1.13)
Derek Ravio, Gonzaga (1.12)
Daniel Gibson, Texas (1.12)
Paul Miller, Wichita State (1.11)
Glen Davis, LSU (1.10)
Brandon Bowman, Georgetown (1.08)
Randy Foye, Villanova (1.07)
Rudy Gay, Connecticut (1.07)
Jordan Farmar, UCLA (1.06)
Jeff Green, Georgetown (1.03)
Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley (1.02)
Note that Duke's three leading scorers--J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, and Josh McRoberts--are all among the ten most efficient scorers left in the dance. That is Illinois-in-2005-like. Volume and efficiency--nice combination, that.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa athletic director Bob Bowlsby says his annual sit-down with Steve Alford will occur soon because "there are a lot of issues to talk about." Indeed there are. Behind ESPN.com's "Insider" wall for paid subscribers like me (who coughed up the dough only when it became necessary to continue to read Kyle Whelliston and Ken Pomeroy), Andy Katz is citing the inevitable "source close to the process" as saying the Indiana coaching search committee (there's a search committee? did we know this?) will start calling candidates this week. "Expect Alford and Orlando Magic assistant Randy Wittman to get a call," Katz says, "along with another secret candidate (could be someone like Marquette's Tom Crean or West Virginia's John Beilein)." For his part Alford likely won't be hiring Iowa City Press-Citizen columnist Pat Harty as his agent anytime soon. Harty says Alford had better hope Greenspan "has an open mind and is willing to overlook the fact that Iowa only has one NCAA tournament victory during [Alford's] seven seasons as head coach." (Katz also says Iowa State is looking at Northern Iowa coach Greg McDermott. I say if the Cyclones are smart they'll grab McDermott before Iowa has an opening to backfill....ISU is also reportedly talking to former Wisconsin assistant and first-year Wisconsin-Milwaukee head coach Rob Jeter.)
Michigan beat Notre Dame 87-84 in 2 OTs in Ann Arbor in the NIT last night.
Washington Post columnist Tony Kornheiser is kicking himself for picking three Big Ten teams to make it to the Elite Eight in his brackets.
In today's less extinct-conference-related venues....
Bradley point guard Daniel Ruffin --who says he hasn't "seen any tape" of upcoming Sweet 16 opponent Memphis yet--is the half-brother of former Indiana star A.J. Guyton. And yet even Guyton didn't pick the Braves to beat Kansas in his brackets? Where's the love, half-brother?...Speaking of Memphis, salute to dueling Tiger point guards Darius Washington, Jr., and Andre Allen here.
In Fairfax, VA, the statue of George Mason (the 18th century person) now wears a George Mason (the team) jersey. It's Patriot fever, baby!
Life is good for Wichita State coach Mark Turgeon: "I'm so proud, so happy Wichita State is getting all this publicity, because it deserves it. We have the greatest fans in the world out here. We sell out every night, and it's going to be even harder getting tickets next year." Andy Katz of ESPN.com salutes Turgeon here.
Profile of Boston College big man John Oates here.
LSU coach John Brady says guarding Duke's J.J. Redick will require a team effort: "We’re going to probably put a couple of different guys on him....Collectively, we’ve got to have a good team defensive effort on him." At FOXSports.com this morning, Jeff Goodman says: sure, Redick is a great player. But can he come up big in late March?
Gainesville Sun columnist Pat Dooley says Florida 's seven-game winning streak proves the Gators "have figured out how to expand a lead."
Texas coach Rick Barnes says North Carolina State fans should count themselves fortunate for having the seemingly perpetually hot-seated Herb Sendek as their coach. (Barnes and Sendek go way back.)
Salute to Washington freshmen Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman here.
Salute to Villanova freshmen Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark here.
Connecticut guard Rashad Anderson says, yes, he's noticed that the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in the Huskies' bracket are all long gone: "I wouldn't say it's wide open. But I know we aren't going to lose."
BONUS surprisingly ACC-heavy edition of Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
An indecent proposal
Wonk,
Your genius is wasted on this fallow excuse for a basketball conference. It is a tribute to your skill that you can make the Big Ten interesting but you're like Da Vinci painting on a napkin with lipstick. Sure, the smile is enigmatic, but in the end the materials are still suboptimal.
You can do better. Defect to the ACC. Come to a league with more offense, more possessions per game, more recent titles, and less football. You'll get to hate on K and Roy (really, who in the BigTeleven is hateable?) while still having plenty of the downtrodden to pity. (Northwestern has no drama, they just stink. Clemson and Virginia have aspirations of greatness that are annually crushed in dramatic fashion.)
If you're in need of a specific team to adopt to replace Illinois, I recommend Wake--they have history (but not so much as to make their fans unbearable) and they have potential (attractive campus to recruit to). And the gap between this year and last year would have provided fascinating fodder. I have personally enjoyed being a Duke fan, but it isn't very intellectually challenging, nor has there been much strength-through-suffering of late, so it might not appeal to you.
So, yeah, come to the ACC. At least for the rest of the month--the grass is greener in North Carolina by now, I guarantee it.
Luis V.
You make some compelling arguments, Luis. But how am I to know if the grass is truly greener? I can't even see the grass here in the Twin Cities. It's still under a foot of snow. On March 21. (Sigh.)
Nah, just messing with you....I could never defect. Charter Big Ten member Illinois is in my DNA. I was there as an undergrad and for grad school both! I met my wife there! My parents went there! I'll defect in a Thad Matta-outta-Xavier minute for a large amount of cash! (Oops, that last one kind of slipped out.)
Log cabin and hard cider fever--catch it!
Little did I know that posting about the presidential election of 1840 would elicit almost as much email as posting about Michigan State's defense. Apparently I should have made the thematic jump much sooner.
Many, many of you wrote to say that I should focus my attention not on William Henry Harrison or Martin Van Buren but rather on James Polk, to wit....
I’m more of a 1844 kinda guy, with some help from They Might Be Giants
Marc M.
I have to admit to having a certain admiration for any pop group that can work a reference to the Independent Treasury into a catchy little tune. (Though the lads err when they say Polk "built" said institution. What, no love for former President Van Buren, father of the first Independent Treasury? O, the injustice!)
Still more support for a "Polk Wonk" in this space:
Now that the Tar Heels are gone from the tournament and there is no more season, I can tearfully reply to your venture into 1840s elections.
James K. Polk was the only UNC alumnus to serve as President and, I am certain, the only president to fulfill all of his campaign pledges. His only pledge seems to have been to go to war with Mexico if he could not get cession of the southwest in any other fashion. So Robert E. Lee and U.S. Grant got an opportunity at live fire exercises for the domestic dustup to come.
Mr. Polk was a protege and legatee of Andrew Jackson and the political machine that Jackson headed. We at UNC attribute (wishfully and probably in error) the deep jingoism and rabid racism of Mr. Polk to his time in Tennessee. Surely our great university sent him into the world with a better ethic than the one he later displayed.
At least we are not saddled (like Dook) with the Trick! Talk about ignominy!
And doesn't Yale have much to atone?
Jerry H.
Thanks, Jerry. But I propose to keep my focus on 1840. I think "The Simpsons" put it best when, during Springfield Elementary's Presidents Day pageant, the second graders sang the following ditty:
We are the mediocre Presidents.
You won't find our faces on dollars or on cents.
There's Taylor, there's Tyler, there's Fillmore, and there's Hayes.
There's William Henry Harrison: "I died in 30 days!" ¶ 5:51 AM
There's no trick to putting up a nice number for points per game (PPG). Just shoot a lot. But who would get the most points from the same number of shots?
To answer that question we turn to the handy stat known as points per weighted shot (PPWS), developed cannily by John Hollinger (The Basketball Prospectus) and renamed brazenly by yours truly. Here are the current numbers for the most efficient scorers in the Sweet 16:
Scoring efficiency: PPWS top 20
1. Lee Humphrey, Florida (1.35)
2. Joakim Noah, Florida (1.33)
3. Mike Gansey, West Virginia (1.32)
4. J.P. Batista, Gonzaga (1.30)
5. Josh McRoberts, Duke (1.29)
6. Hilton Armstrong, Connecticut (1.29)
7. J.J. Redick, Duke (1.28)
8. Darrel Owens, Georgetown (1.27)
9. Shelden Williams, Duke (1.27)
10. Louis Hinnant, Boston College (1.27)
11. Ryan Appleby, Washington (1.26)
12. Sean Ogirri, Wichita State (1.26)
13. Tyrus Thomas, LSU (1.25)
14. Al Horford, Florida (1.25)
15. Ryan Hollins, UCLA (1.25)
16. Roy Hibbert, Georgetown (1.25)
17. Cedric Bozeman, UCLA (1.24)
18. Arron Afflalo, UCLA (1.23)
19. Brandon Roy, Washington (1.22)
20. Tyrese Rice, Boston College (1.22)
Other notables....
Adam Morrison, Gonzaga (1.21)
LaMarcus Aldridge, Texas (1.20)
Kevin Pittsnoggle, West Virginia (1.20)
Craig Smith, Boston College (1.20)
Patrick O'Bryant, Bradley (1.17)
Jared Dudley, Boston College (1.16)
Jai Lewis, George Mason (1.16)
Rashad Anderson, Connecticut (1.14)
Allan Ray, Villanova (1.14)
P.J. Tucker, Texas (1.13)
Josh Boone, Connecticut (1.13)
Derek Ravio, Gonzaga (1.12)
Daniel Gibson, Texas (1.12)
Paul Miller, Wichita State (1.11)
Glen Davis, LSU (1.10)
Brandon Bowman, Georgetown (1.08)
Randy Foye, Villanova (1.07)
Rudy Gay, Connecticut (1.07)
Jordan Farmar, UCLA (1.06)
Jeff Green, Georgetown (1.03)
Marcellus Sommerville, Bradley (1.02)
Note that Duke's three leading scorers--J.J. Redick, Shelden Williams, and Josh McRoberts--are all among the ten most efficient scorers left in the dance. That is Illinois-in-2005-like. Volume and efficiency--nice combination, that.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa athletic director Bob Bowlsby says his annual sit-down with Steve Alford will occur soon because "there are a lot of issues to talk about." Indeed there are. Behind ESPN.com's "Insider" wall for paid subscribers like me (who coughed up the dough only when it became necessary to continue to read Kyle Whelliston and Ken Pomeroy), Andy Katz is citing the inevitable "source close to the process" as saying the Indiana coaching search committee (there's a search committee? did we know this?) will start calling candidates this week. "Expect Alford and Orlando Magic assistant Randy Wittman to get a call," Katz says, "along with another secret candidate (could be someone like Marquette's Tom Crean or West Virginia's John Beilein)." For his part Alford likely won't be hiring Iowa City Press-Citizen columnist Pat Harty as his agent anytime soon. Harty says Alford had better hope Greenspan "has an open mind and is willing to overlook the fact that Iowa only has one NCAA tournament victory during [Alford's] seven seasons as head coach." (Katz also says Iowa State is looking at Northern Iowa coach Greg McDermott. I say if the Cyclones are smart they'll grab McDermott before Iowa has an opening to backfill....ISU is also reportedly talking to former Wisconsin assistant and first-year Wisconsin-Milwaukee head coach Rob Jeter.)
Michigan beat Notre Dame 87-84 in 2 OTs in Ann Arbor in the NIT last night.
Washington Post columnist Tony Kornheiser is kicking himself for picking three Big Ten teams to make it to the Elite Eight in his brackets.
In today's less extinct-conference-related venues....
Bradley point guard Daniel Ruffin --who says he hasn't "seen any tape" of upcoming Sweet 16 opponent Memphis yet--is the half-brother of former Indiana star A.J. Guyton. And yet even Guyton didn't pick the Braves to beat Kansas in his brackets? Where's the love, half-brother?...Speaking of Memphis, salute to dueling Tiger point guards Darius Washington, Jr., and Andre Allen here.
In Fairfax, VA, the statue of George Mason (the 18th century person) now wears a George Mason (the team) jersey. It's Patriot fever, baby!
Life is good for Wichita State coach Mark Turgeon: "I'm so proud, so happy Wichita State is getting all this publicity, because it deserves it. We have the greatest fans in the world out here. We sell out every night, and it's going to be even harder getting tickets next year." Andy Katz of ESPN.com salutes Turgeon here.
Profile of Boston College big man John Oates here.
LSU coach John Brady says guarding Duke's J.J. Redick will require a team effort: "We’re going to probably put a couple of different guys on him....Collectively, we’ve got to have a good team defensive effort on him." At FOXSports.com this morning, Jeff Goodman says: sure, Redick is a great player. But can he come up big in late March?
Gainesville Sun columnist Pat Dooley says Florida 's seven-game winning streak proves the Gators "have figured out how to expand a lead."
Texas coach Rick Barnes says North Carolina State fans should count themselves fortunate for having the seemingly perpetually hot-seated Herb Sendek as their coach. (Barnes and Sendek go way back.)
Salute to Washington freshmen Justin Dentmon and Jon Brockman here.
Salute to Villanova freshmen Dante Cunningham and Shane Clark here.
Connecticut guard Rashad Anderson says, yes, he's noticed that the 2, 3, and 4 seeds in the Huskies' bracket are all long gone: "I wouldn't say it's wide open. But I know we aren't going to lose."
BONUS surprisingly ACC-heavy edition of Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
An indecent proposal
Wonk,
Your genius is wasted on this fallow excuse for a basketball conference. It is a tribute to your skill that you can make the Big Ten interesting but you're like Da Vinci painting on a napkin with lipstick. Sure, the smile is enigmatic, but in the end the materials are still suboptimal.
You can do better. Defect to the ACC. Come to a league with more offense, more possessions per game, more recent titles, and less football. You'll get to hate on K and Roy (really, who in the BigTeleven is hateable?) while still having plenty of the downtrodden to pity. (Northwestern has no drama, they just stink. Clemson and Virginia have aspirations of greatness that are annually crushed in dramatic fashion.)
If you're in need of a specific team to adopt to replace Illinois, I recommend Wake--they have history (but not so much as to make their fans unbearable) and they have potential (attractive campus to recruit to). And the gap between this year and last year would have provided fascinating fodder. I have personally enjoyed being a Duke fan, but it isn't very intellectually challenging, nor has there been much strength-through-suffering of late, so it might not appeal to you.
So, yeah, come to the ACC. At least for the rest of the month--the grass is greener in North Carolina by now, I guarantee it.
Luis V.
You make some compelling arguments, Luis. But how am I to know if the grass is truly greener? I can't even see the grass here in the Twin Cities. It's still under a foot of snow. On March 21. (Sigh.)
Nah, just messing with you....I could never defect. Charter Big Ten member Illinois is in my DNA. I was there as an undergrad and for grad school both! I met my wife there! My parents went there! I'll defect in a Thad Matta-outta-Xavier minute for a large amount of cash! (Oops, that last one kind of slipped out.)
Log cabin and hard cider fever--catch it!
Little did I know that posting about the presidential election of 1840 would elicit almost as much email as posting about Michigan State's defense. Apparently I should have made the thematic jump much sooner.
Many, many of you wrote to say that I should focus my attention not on William Henry Harrison or Martin Van Buren but rather on James Polk, to wit....
I’m more of a 1844 kinda guy, with some help from They Might Be Giants
Marc M.
I have to admit to having a certain admiration for any pop group that can work a reference to the Independent Treasury into a catchy little tune. (Though the lads err when they say Polk "built" said institution. What, no love for former President Van Buren, father of the first Independent Treasury? O, the injustice!)
Still more support for a "Polk Wonk" in this space:
Now that the Tar Heels are gone from the tournament and there is no more season, I can tearfully reply to your venture into 1840s elections.
James K. Polk was the only UNC alumnus to serve as President and, I am certain, the only president to fulfill all of his campaign pledges. His only pledge seems to have been to go to war with Mexico if he could not get cession of the southwest in any other fashion. So Robert E. Lee and U.S. Grant got an opportunity at live fire exercises for the domestic dustup to come.
Mr. Polk was a protege and legatee of Andrew Jackson and the political machine that Jackson headed. We at UNC attribute (wishfully and probably in error) the deep jingoism and rabid racism of Mr. Polk to his time in Tennessee. Surely our great university sent him into the world with a better ethic than the one he later displayed.
At least we are not saddled (like Dook) with the Trick! Talk about ignominy!
And doesn't Yale have much to atone?
Jerry H.
Thanks, Jerry. But I propose to keep my focus on 1840. I think "The Simpsons" put it best when, during Springfield Elementary's Presidents Day pageant, the second graders sang the following ditty:
We are the mediocre Presidents.
You won't find our faces on dollars or on cents.
There's Taylor, there's Tyler, there's Fillmore, and there's Hayes.
There's William Henry Harrison: "I died in 30 days!" ¶ 5:51 AM
Monday, March 20, 2006
Welcome to "Election of 1840 Wonk"!
Editor's note. For those of you looking for a blog about Big Ten hoops, I have a news flash: there are no Big Ten hoops. Big Ten hoops is no more. It has ceased to be. It's expired and gone to meet its maker. It's a stiff. Bereft of life it rests in peace. Its metabolic processes are now history. It's kicked the bucket. Shuffled off its mortal coil. Run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible, etc.
But fear not! I promised to do a blog in this space until April 7 and, by Godfrey, I mean to do one! Welcome to Election of 1840 Wonk!
Oh, sure, skeptics will say I can't possibly maintain a daily readership of a few thousand rabid hoops fans with a blog about a presidential election 166 years ago between William Henry Harrison and Martin Van Buren. We'll prove those skeptics wrong, won't we, gang?
History doesn't have to be dull! It can be really "neato," as you young people say nowadays. Check this out!...
In today's less 1840 Wonk-ish venues....
Bray Hammond says the Second Bank of the United States achieved monetary stability in the late 1820s through discretionary controls, thus functioning as a nascent central bank. Peter Temin begs to differ, saying the BUS made its mark through deflationary routine, presenting all notes for redemption in specie immediately.
Thomas B. Alexander says the state of Tennessee opted not to send a delegation to the first ever Whig National Convention in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, in December 1839 because the anti-Jacksonian party in the Volunteer state based its appeal on the most strident anti-caucus rhetoric.
Tasty stuff, am I right? And there's more where this came from!...
Election of 1840 Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
John,
What's J.J. Redick's PPWS? Thanks.
Charlie S.
Springfield, IL
Dadgummit, people, get with the program here, will you?
BONUS Bill Murray edition!
I don't like it when somebody comes up to me the next day and says, "Hey, man, I really liked your play." Or "I really dug your message, man. I cried." I like it when somebody comes up to me on the street a week later and says, "Hey, man, I saw your play....What happened?"
--Bill Murray in Tootsie
(7) Georgetown 70, (2) Ohio State 52
This outcome is being portrayed post facto (see links, below) as the inevitable consequence of a taller Hoya team. But Georgetown's going to be taller than every team they play; they'll either win the national championship or lose to somebody. If the latter occurs, what will that team have done that Ohio State didn't do yesterday? They will probably have played within their comfort zone--something the Buckeyes were unable to do yesterday or even Friday against Davidson.
I think Ohio State simply pulled in their horns and stopped shooting threes. In the 30 games leading up to the tournament, 40.5 percent of OSU's shots were threes. In two games this weekend in Dayton, conversely, just 34 percent were. Understandable, certainly: they'd stopped making those threes in mid-February. But watching this game yesterday I didn't even recognize these players. (Well, except for Terence Dials and the marvelous J.J. Sullinger.) They were just afraid--afraid to shoot those threes. Bad timing, that. When you're up against a front line that goes 7-2, 6-9, and 6-9, that's a pretty good time to shoot threes. It's also a good time, whether you're thin or not, to at least try to seize the transition opportunities present with a long and not terribly speedy opponent crashing the offensive glass. After all, you'll have the summer to rest. (Box score.)
Links
Thad Matta says the Hoyas were just too dang tall: "One of our biggest nightmares came true. We had disguised pretty much all year (that) size was something we didn’t like to see and we knew going in we had our hands full." Matt Sylvester gives high praise to the victors--"Those guys are unbelievable athletes"--but also says he thinks he and his teammates ended the year "worn out." Terence Dials says 7-2 Roy Hibbert is the real deal: "On film, he looked a little slow. I think he was a little quicker than we anticipated." Washington Post columnist Michael Wilbon says Hibbert "makes even cynical coaches wonder every day how a kid could improve this much from game to game. Georgetown, right now, is a threat to beat anybody." Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says: "The Big Ten simply wasn’t that good this year." Salute to the seniors here.
BONUS pert speculation! One tremendous lost opportunity here: had Ohio State won this game it would have been delicious spectator sport to keep our collective gaze and GPS locators firmly affixed on Indiana athletic director Rick Greenspan. With Steve Alford's season already done and Thad Matta's campaign still continuing, an immobile silence this week from Greenspan would have spoken volumes about his true first choice. Alas.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana guard A.J. Ratliff says having Steve Alford as his next coach would be OK with him: "It would be great if we hired an IU guy, but a lot of people don't want Steve Alford because they say, 'What did he do at Iowa?' and they say he can't recruit Indiana players. I don't agree. I think he would be great if he came to Indiana because I think he would get that many more Indiana players." (No comment from Ratliff on my personal favorite for the Indiana job, Subway Jared.) Departing coach Mike Davis says he's looking forward to his next gig--whatever and wherever it is.
At ESPN.com, Pat Forde says Michigan State was the most disappointing team in an "immensely disappointing" conference.
So, um, what now?
I suddenly find myself in the same line of work as people with blogs about Northwestern's offensive rebounding or Mike Krzyzewski's humility: it's hard to write about nothing.
Hard but not impossible. So what the heck. I'll keep her going, as planned, for the next three weeks. I've rented the blogospheric space, as it were, and the 0.475s are already entered into the spreadsheets so I might as well.
True, the subject matter will have to change a tad (duh). So I propose to do some wholly unsolicited moonlighting as kind of an adjunct Sweet 16 Wonk this week and Final Four Wonk next week.
And, of course, there's still some good Big Ten rubble to be pawed over: what the hell happened, the inevitable post-Katrina calls for sweeping reforms, what does it mean for next year, who's going to coach at Indiana and will that cause any other openings in the conference, etc.
We'll see how that goes.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 5:57 AM
Editor's note. For those of you looking for a blog about Big Ten hoops, I have a news flash: there are no Big Ten hoops. Big Ten hoops is no more. It has ceased to be. It's expired and gone to meet its maker. It's a stiff. Bereft of life it rests in peace. Its metabolic processes are now history. It's kicked the bucket. Shuffled off its mortal coil. Run down the curtain and joined the choir invisible, etc.
But fear not! I promised to do a blog in this space until April 7 and, by Godfrey, I mean to do one! Welcome to Election of 1840 Wonk!
Oh, sure, skeptics will say I can't possibly maintain a daily readership of a few thousand rabid hoops fans with a blog about a presidential election 166 years ago between William Henry Harrison and Martin Van Buren. We'll prove those skeptics wrong, won't we, gang?
History doesn't have to be dull! It can be really "neato," as you young people say nowadays. Check this out!...
In today's less 1840 Wonk-ish venues....
Bray Hammond says the Second Bank of the United States achieved monetary stability in the late 1820s through discretionary controls, thus functioning as a nascent central bank. Peter Temin begs to differ, saying the BUS made its mark through deflationary routine, presenting all notes for redemption in specie immediately.
Thomas B. Alexander says the state of Tennessee opted not to send a delegation to the first ever Whig National Convention in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, in December 1839 because the anti-Jacksonian party in the Volunteer state based its appeal on the most strident anti-caucus rhetoric.
Tasty stuff, am I right? And there's more where this came from!...
Election of 1840 Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
John,
What's J.J. Redick's PPWS? Thanks.
Charlie S.
Springfield, IL
Dadgummit, people, get with the program here, will you?
BONUS Bill Murray edition!
I don't like it when somebody comes up to me the next day and says, "Hey, man, I really liked your play." Or "I really dug your message, man. I cried." I like it when somebody comes up to me on the street a week later and says, "Hey, man, I saw your play....What happened?"
--Bill Murray in Tootsie
(7) Georgetown 70, (2) Ohio State 52
This outcome is being portrayed post facto (see links, below) as the inevitable consequence of a taller Hoya team. But Georgetown's going to be taller than every team they play; they'll either win the national championship or lose to somebody. If the latter occurs, what will that team have done that Ohio State didn't do yesterday? They will probably have played within their comfort zone--something the Buckeyes were unable to do yesterday or even Friday against Davidson.
I think Ohio State simply pulled in their horns and stopped shooting threes. In the 30 games leading up to the tournament, 40.5 percent of OSU's shots were threes. In two games this weekend in Dayton, conversely, just 34 percent were. Understandable, certainly: they'd stopped making those threes in mid-February. But watching this game yesterday I didn't even recognize these players. (Well, except for Terence Dials and the marvelous J.J. Sullinger.) They were just afraid--afraid to shoot those threes. Bad timing, that. When you're up against a front line that goes 7-2, 6-9, and 6-9, that's a pretty good time to shoot threes. It's also a good time, whether you're thin or not, to at least try to seize the transition opportunities present with a long and not terribly speedy opponent crashing the offensive glass. After all, you'll have the summer to rest. (Box score.)
Links
Thad Matta says the Hoyas were just too dang tall: "One of our biggest nightmares came true. We had disguised pretty much all year (that) size was something we didn’t like to see and we knew going in we had our hands full." Matt Sylvester gives high praise to the victors--"Those guys are unbelievable athletes"--but also says he thinks he and his teammates ended the year "worn out." Terence Dials says 7-2 Roy Hibbert is the real deal: "On film, he looked a little slow. I think he was a little quicker than we anticipated." Washington Post columnist Michael Wilbon says Hibbert "makes even cynical coaches wonder every day how a kid could improve this much from game to game. Georgetown, right now, is a threat to beat anybody." Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says: "The Big Ten simply wasn’t that good this year." Salute to the seniors here.
BONUS pert speculation! One tremendous lost opportunity here: had Ohio State won this game it would have been delicious spectator sport to keep our collective gaze and GPS locators firmly affixed on Indiana athletic director Rick Greenspan. With Steve Alford's season already done and Thad Matta's campaign still continuing, an immobile silence this week from Greenspan would have spoken volumes about his true first choice. Alas.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana guard A.J. Ratliff says having Steve Alford as his next coach would be OK with him: "It would be great if we hired an IU guy, but a lot of people don't want Steve Alford because they say, 'What did he do at Iowa?' and they say he can't recruit Indiana players. I don't agree. I think he would be great if he came to Indiana because I think he would get that many more Indiana players." (No comment from Ratliff on my personal favorite for the Indiana job, Subway Jared.) Departing coach Mike Davis says he's looking forward to his next gig--whatever and wherever it is.
At ESPN.com, Pat Forde says Michigan State was the most disappointing team in an "immensely disappointing" conference.
So, um, what now?
I suddenly find myself in the same line of work as people with blogs about Northwestern's offensive rebounding or Mike Krzyzewski's humility: it's hard to write about nothing.
Hard but not impossible. So what the heck. I'll keep her going, as planned, for the next three weeks. I've rented the blogospheric space, as it were, and the 0.475s are already entered into the spreadsheets so I might as well.
True, the subject matter will have to change a tad (duh). So I propose to do some wholly unsolicited moonlighting as kind of an adjunct Sweet 16 Wonk this week and Final Four Wonk next week.
And, of course, there's still some good Big Ten rubble to be pawed over: what the hell happened, the inevitable post-Katrina calls for sweeping reforms, what does it mean for next year, who's going to coach at Indiana and will that cause any other openings in the conference, etc.
We'll see how that goes.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 5:57 AM
Sunday, March 19, 2006
The name of this blog is now "Buckeye Wonk"
For Ohio State and the Big Ten have become synonymous, at least as far as post-season prospects. One comment....
Last night I watched teams from the state of Washington enjoy an 80-17 advantage in FTAs over the Big Ten. I cite these numbers not to rail against the officials but to file a request with the Big Ten's coaches. Give me more players like Ron Lewis of Ohio State, non-bigs who nevertheless have a knack for getting fouled. A Ron Lewis in an Illinois uniform last night changes the outcome. Coaches tirelessly preach pass-over-dribble and rightfully so. But we may be at the point where we've taken this healthy practice to an unhealthy extreme. There comes a time in any season where what's needed is an "I'm going to score or get fouled" drive to the tin. With the possible exception of Roderick Wilmont when the mood strikes him, neither Illinois nor Indiana has such a player. And that was a fatal flaw last night....
(5) Washington 67, (4) Illinois 64
With just seven additional free throws, the Huskies would have had more FTAs than FGAs. And that's not the statement of a conspiracy theorist, mind you, merely the observation of someone who would have preferred that the game have some other characteristic as the most prominent feature. This was kind of like a frustratingly choppy Little League game where walks determine the outcome. But Illinois most certainly helped this result along. (This game wasn't called the way I'd like, it's true. But it was clear from the game's early moments that this was indeed how it was going to be called. It's up to the team to adjust.) The Illini were up 11 with ten minutes left but for some reason stopped going to James Augustine, who was looking unstoppable. Possession after possession ended with threes being flung up as the shot clock neared zero. Oh for just one Jamar Smith make instead of five misses. Or if we could just subtract Justin Dentmon's four-point play. (When Dentmon-- a freshman shooting 27 percent on his threes for the season--jacked this one up from outside the arc before the first pass of the possession, this Illini fan was initially very happy. Until I saw the result.) But there it is: congratulations to the Huskies, a team with the length and talent (see Brandon Roy) to at least give some Connecticut some Albany moments. (Had the historic 1-16 upset actually been pulled off Friday night, an Illinois loss last night would have been much much more devastating to me.) More, congratulations--and thanks--to Augustine and Dee Brown, possessors of the most glittering Illinois careers in the program's history. (Box score.)
(3) Gonzaga 90, (6) Indiana 80
Good grief the Zags looked good--and without Adam Morrison looking good. Where did this come from? Someone correct me but I was under the impression that in Gonzaga's last three games they had: 1) needed OT to beat San Diego on the Zags' home floor; 2) beaten Loyola Marymount by one on the Zags' home floor; and 3) trailed for most of the game against a seriously undermanned Xavier team. Now this: 1.25 points per possession. Sure the FTAs helped. But the FTAs were the direct result of a savvy team using Morrison as a glorified decoy: while IU chased the long-locked one all over the floor, relative who-dat Zags were attacking the tin relentlessly. Gonzaga had six players in double-figures. The foul-plagued Marco Killingsworth played just 22 minutes and watched his team shoot 36 threes. (Cause-and-effect. Granted. Still....) The Hoosiers made a robust 44 percent of said threes. And lost by ten to a team that made just two threes. As noted above, I think last night can and should serve as something of a stylistic epiphany for my beloved Big Ten. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
One game, our last best hope. Outside shooting woes or no, if the Buckeyes, playing in Dayton for goodness sake, can't take care of a very young and very callow looking 7-seed, the Big Ten will deserve the resulting abuse....
(2) Ohio State vs. (7) Georgetown, Dayton (4:50pm ET)
Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:39 AM
For Ohio State and the Big Ten have become synonymous, at least as far as post-season prospects. One comment....
Last night I watched teams from the state of Washington enjoy an 80-17 advantage in FTAs over the Big Ten. I cite these numbers not to rail against the officials but to file a request with the Big Ten's coaches. Give me more players like Ron Lewis of Ohio State, non-bigs who nevertheless have a knack for getting fouled. A Ron Lewis in an Illinois uniform last night changes the outcome. Coaches tirelessly preach pass-over-dribble and rightfully so. But we may be at the point where we've taken this healthy practice to an unhealthy extreme. There comes a time in any season where what's needed is an "I'm going to score or get fouled" drive to the tin. With the possible exception of Roderick Wilmont when the mood strikes him, neither Illinois nor Indiana has such a player. And that was a fatal flaw last night....
(5) Washington 67, (4) Illinois 64
With just seven additional free throws, the Huskies would have had more FTAs than FGAs. And that's not the statement of a conspiracy theorist, mind you, merely the observation of someone who would have preferred that the game have some other characteristic as the most prominent feature. This was kind of like a frustratingly choppy Little League game where walks determine the outcome. But Illinois most certainly helped this result along. (This game wasn't called the way I'd like, it's true. But it was clear from the game's early moments that this was indeed how it was going to be called. It's up to the team to adjust.) The Illini were up 11 with ten minutes left but for some reason stopped going to James Augustine, who was looking unstoppable. Possession after possession ended with threes being flung up as the shot clock neared zero. Oh for just one Jamar Smith make instead of five misses. Or if we could just subtract Justin Dentmon's four-point play. (When Dentmon-- a freshman shooting 27 percent on his threes for the season--jacked this one up from outside the arc before the first pass of the possession, this Illini fan was initially very happy. Until I saw the result.) But there it is: congratulations to the Huskies, a team with the length and talent (see Brandon Roy) to at least give some Connecticut some Albany moments. (Had the historic 1-16 upset actually been pulled off Friday night, an Illinois loss last night would have been much much more devastating to me.) More, congratulations--and thanks--to Augustine and Dee Brown, possessors of the most glittering Illinois careers in the program's history. (Box score.)
(3) Gonzaga 90, (6) Indiana 80
Good grief the Zags looked good--and without Adam Morrison looking good. Where did this come from? Someone correct me but I was under the impression that in Gonzaga's last three games they had: 1) needed OT to beat San Diego on the Zags' home floor; 2) beaten Loyola Marymount by one on the Zags' home floor; and 3) trailed for most of the game against a seriously undermanned Xavier team. Now this: 1.25 points per possession. Sure the FTAs helped. But the FTAs were the direct result of a savvy team using Morrison as a glorified decoy: while IU chased the long-locked one all over the floor, relative who-dat Zags were attacking the tin relentlessly. Gonzaga had six players in double-figures. The foul-plagued Marco Killingsworth played just 22 minutes and watched his team shoot 36 threes. (Cause-and-effect. Granted. Still....) The Hoosiers made a robust 44 percent of said threes. And lost by ten to a team that made just two threes. As noted above, I think last night can and should serve as something of a stylistic epiphany for my beloved Big Ten. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
One game, our last best hope. Outside shooting woes or no, if the Buckeyes, playing in Dayton for goodness sake, can't take care of a very young and very callow looking 7-seed, the Big Ten will deserve the resulting abuse....
(2) Ohio State vs. (7) Georgetown, Dayton (4:50pm ET)
Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:39 AM
Saturday, March 18, 2006
Batting .500
The Big Ten is 3-3 after the first round--and that's not a promising sign. True, the conference was 3-2 after the first round last year. But we had a couple aces up the proverbial sleeve--aces on their way to St. Louis. Is the same true this year?...
(14) Northwestern State 64, (3) Iowa 63
Though I was of course disappointed with the outcome, I have to admit to being thankful that I witnessed this game's climactic moment where it should have been witnessed: in a sports bar. Some patrons were wearing Hawkeye colors; others were openly rooting against the men from Iowa City. When Greg Brunner made the first of two free throw attempts with 15 seconds left to put Iowa up by two, the Hawkeyes seemed on relatively solid footing. Timeout, Northwestern State. Then Brunner, with a chance to at least insure OT, was short on the second free throw....
And you know the rest. At the precise instant when Jermaine Wallace's shot cleared the net there was a sudden eruption of absolute chaos in the bar. Some who were there were angry. Some were amused. All of us were stunned and, maybe, delighted that we'd taken in a moment that March is supposed to deliver.
Iowa led this game 54-37 but their defense, arguably the nation's best this year, allowed the Demons to score 27 points over the last eight minutes. Incredible. The Hawkeyes also gave the ball to their opponent 19 times in a 63-possession game--Erek Hansen alone had five turnovers in just 19 minutes. (Box score.)
Links
Greg Brunner says he should have hit the second free throw: "A senior should hit that shot, and I didn't." Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler says it wasn't just Brunner's miss that lost this game: "It's over because little Northwestern State—enrollment 9,847—just couldn't take a hint."...Jeff Horner says fatigue wasn't a factor in the Hawkeye collapse: "We didn't wear down; we just didn't make plays." (Valedictory salute to Horner and Brunner here.)...Steve Alford says it's too soon to talk about his plans for next year--but he at least said it more diplomatically than did Roy Williams in 2003.
(8) Arizona 94, (9) Wisconsin 75
Where did this come from? Did I anticipate the 240th-best shooting team in the country posting an effective FG percentage of 63.6 against a usually tough Badger D? No way. Hassan Adams led the Wildcats with 21 points and Ivan Radenovic added 18. Mustafa Shakur recorded 17 points and nine assists. (Box score.)
Links
Lute Olson sounds just as surprised as I am: "I think we played offensively about as well as we played all year long." Bo Ryan says the thing he feared most came to pass: "We're not athletic enough or quick enough to be able to play from behind....That was our worst nightmare." Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates says Wisconsin "suffered a complete defensive meltdown."...Valedictory salute to departing senior Ray Nixon here. Latest in a series of salutes to hard-working junior Alando Tucker here.
(2) Ohio State 70, (15) Davidson 62
The Buckeyes' woes from the outside continued (5-of-22) but dub-dubs by Terence Dials (19-13) and J.J. Sullinger (13-13) were enough in Dayton for a team from Columbus to get past a 15-seed by eight. (Box score.)
Next: (7) Georgetown. Read more! Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton.
Links
Thad Matta says he blames himself for his team's relatively lackluster--though ultimately successful--performance: "I didn’t do a very good job of getting these guys ready to go, to understand just what it took." Sullinger says the Buckeyes' many seniors didn't want their careers to end here: "We said we don’t want this to be the last time this team is together." Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says Ron Lewis bailed out his teammates with two timely threes and a couple assists in the second half....Davidson guard Matt McKillop apparently won't be text-messaging good-luck wishes to Jamar Butler anytime soon.
(11) George Mason 75, (6) Michigan State 65
A surprisingly docile effort from the Spartans. The Patriots, even minus their second-leading scorer (suspended for this game by coach Jim Larranaga), were clearly the better team on this night. (George Mason was just 12-of-26 from the line--normal free throw shooting would have made the final score 80-something to 65.) The nominal underdogs from the CAA shot like power-conference favorites, registering an effective FG percentage of 64.3. They were led by guard Folarin Campbell, who hit all eight of his attempts and scored 21 points. Worse, State was beaten senseless on the boards (Will Thomas posted an 18-14 dub-dub), allowing the Patriots offensive and defensive rebounding percentages of roughly 36 and 83, respectively. Mo Ager scored 27 for the Spartans but the problem last night was where it has been most of the year--on D. Since the beginning of the conference season, Michigan State at no point put together three consecutive games where they allowed the opponent less than a point per possession. And now their season is done, having given the Patriots a generous 1.14 PPP. (Box score.)
Links
Tom Izzo says what bothers him is how his team lost: "This is one of the more disappointing evenings I’ve had in this job....They took it at us early, kicked our butts inside....They were the tougher team tonight." Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp says Izzo needs to go back to the well of old-school toughness: "Izzo is nothing if he isn't true to himself." And Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says defense and rebounding--the lack thereof--ended State's season....Drew Neitzel called out some of his teammates, sort of: "Not everyone gave maximum effort and I'm not going to name names." Shannon Brown still says he's coming back next year. And there are still a lot of us who aren't so sure.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Two games today:
(4) Illinois vs. (5) Washington, San Diego (5:30pm ET)
Wonk 360: Illinois in San Diego
(6) Indiana vs. (3) Gonzaga, Salt Lake City (8:10pm ET)
Wonk 360: Indiana in Salt Lake
Is Adam Morrison an AWG? Tune in today and declare your verdict!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:38 AM
The Big Ten is 3-3 after the first round--and that's not a promising sign. True, the conference was 3-2 after the first round last year. But we had a couple aces up the proverbial sleeve--aces on their way to St. Louis. Is the same true this year?...
(14) Northwestern State 64, (3) Iowa 63
Though I was of course disappointed with the outcome, I have to admit to being thankful that I witnessed this game's climactic moment where it should have been witnessed: in a sports bar. Some patrons were wearing Hawkeye colors; others were openly rooting against the men from Iowa City. When Greg Brunner made the first of two free throw attempts with 15 seconds left to put Iowa up by two, the Hawkeyes seemed on relatively solid footing. Timeout, Northwestern State. Then Brunner, with a chance to at least insure OT, was short on the second free throw....
And you know the rest. At the precise instant when Jermaine Wallace's shot cleared the net there was a sudden eruption of absolute chaos in the bar. Some who were there were angry. Some were amused. All of us were stunned and, maybe, delighted that we'd taken in a moment that March is supposed to deliver.
Iowa led this game 54-37 but their defense, arguably the nation's best this year, allowed the Demons to score 27 points over the last eight minutes. Incredible. The Hawkeyes also gave the ball to their opponent 19 times in a 63-possession game--Erek Hansen alone had five turnovers in just 19 minutes. (Box score.)
Links
Greg Brunner says he should have hit the second free throw: "A senior should hit that shot, and I didn't." Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler says it wasn't just Brunner's miss that lost this game: "It's over because little Northwestern State—enrollment 9,847—just couldn't take a hint."...Jeff Horner says fatigue wasn't a factor in the Hawkeye collapse: "We didn't wear down; we just didn't make plays." (Valedictory salute to Horner and Brunner here.)...Steve Alford says it's too soon to talk about his plans for next year--but he at least said it more diplomatically than did Roy Williams in 2003.
(8) Arizona 94, (9) Wisconsin 75
Where did this come from? Did I anticipate the 240th-best shooting team in the country posting an effective FG percentage of 63.6 against a usually tough Badger D? No way. Hassan Adams led the Wildcats with 21 points and Ivan Radenovic added 18. Mustafa Shakur recorded 17 points and nine assists. (Box score.)
Links
Lute Olson sounds just as surprised as I am: "I think we played offensively about as well as we played all year long." Bo Ryan says the thing he feared most came to pass: "We're not athletic enough or quick enough to be able to play from behind....That was our worst nightmare." Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates says Wisconsin "suffered a complete defensive meltdown."...Valedictory salute to departing senior Ray Nixon here. Latest in a series of salutes to hard-working junior Alando Tucker here.
(2) Ohio State 70, (15) Davidson 62
The Buckeyes' woes from the outside continued (5-of-22) but dub-dubs by Terence Dials (19-13) and J.J. Sullinger (13-13) were enough in Dayton for a team from Columbus to get past a 15-seed by eight. (Box score.)
Next: (7) Georgetown. Read more! Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton.
Links
Thad Matta says he blames himself for his team's relatively lackluster--though ultimately successful--performance: "I didn’t do a very good job of getting these guys ready to go, to understand just what it took." Sullinger says the Buckeyes' many seniors didn't want their careers to end here: "We said we don’t want this to be the last time this team is together." Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says Ron Lewis bailed out his teammates with two timely threes and a couple assists in the second half....Davidson guard Matt McKillop apparently won't be text-messaging good-luck wishes to Jamar Butler anytime soon.
(11) George Mason 75, (6) Michigan State 65
A surprisingly docile effort from the Spartans. The Patriots, even minus their second-leading scorer (suspended for this game by coach Jim Larranaga), were clearly the better team on this night. (George Mason was just 12-of-26 from the line--normal free throw shooting would have made the final score 80-something to 65.) The nominal underdogs from the CAA shot like power-conference favorites, registering an effective FG percentage of 64.3. They were led by guard Folarin Campbell, who hit all eight of his attempts and scored 21 points. Worse, State was beaten senseless on the boards (Will Thomas posted an 18-14 dub-dub), allowing the Patriots offensive and defensive rebounding percentages of roughly 36 and 83, respectively. Mo Ager scored 27 for the Spartans but the problem last night was where it has been most of the year--on D. Since the beginning of the conference season, Michigan State at no point put together three consecutive games where they allowed the opponent less than a point per possession. And now their season is done, having given the Patriots a generous 1.14 PPP. (Box score.)
Links
Tom Izzo says what bothers him is how his team lost: "This is one of the more disappointing evenings I’ve had in this job....They took it at us early, kicked our butts inside....They were the tougher team tonight." Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp says Izzo needs to go back to the well of old-school toughness: "Izzo is nothing if he isn't true to himself." And Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says defense and rebounding--the lack thereof--ended State's season....Drew Neitzel called out some of his teammates, sort of: "Not everyone gave maximum effort and I'm not going to name names." Shannon Brown still says he's coming back next year. And there are still a lot of us who aren't so sure.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Two games today:
(4) Illinois vs. (5) Washington, San Diego (5:30pm ET)
Wonk 360: Illinois in San Diego
(6) Indiana vs. (3) Gonzaga, Salt Lake City (8:10pm ET)
Wonk 360: Indiana in Salt Lake
Is Adam Morrison an AWG? Tune in today and declare your verdict!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:38 AM
Friday, March 17, 2006
Winners of the first annual Big Ten/Mountain West Challenge
The Big Ten went 2-0 last night against the Mountain West. With some help from Brandon Heath....
(4) Illinois 78, (13) Air Force 69
Every Illini fan should email their heartfelt thanks to Jamar Smith. On most other nights his 20 points on six threes would have been a pleasing diversion in a blowout. Last night, however, Illinois actually needed those threes, as the men from the Air Force Academy were busy sinking 13 of their own. Indeed, I was very surprised by the amount of points scored here. (Update: Bruce Weber agrees! "I'll be honest, I was thinking it would be 53-49 or something like that.") Make no mistake, this was in fact a slow game (60 possessions) but both teams shot extremely well, with Air Force (67.1 effective FG pct.) doing even better than the Illini (66.0 eFG pct.). It must be a little disconcerting for Weber to see his team post a defensive rebound percentage of 95.5 (not a typo) and yet still give up 1.15 points per possession. What can you say? The Falcons shot a lot of threes (27 of their 41 attempts) and made a lot. (Six different Air Force players made threes--four made more than one.) The good news is Illinois, powered by 75 percent shooting on their twos, scored a scorching 1.30 points per possession last night. Turns out they needed them....Two additional notes: 1) Don't let the Smith mania make you overlook Brian Randle's performance last night. After sitting out the last 13 minutes of the first half with two fouls, Randle scored 15 points in the second half on 6-of-9 shooting. And 2) Dee Brown came within at least shouting distance of a tri-dub: eight points, eight boards, ten assists. (Box score.)
Next: (5) Washington, 75-61 winners over (12) Utah State. Brian Randle guarding Brandon Roy: much too enticing for the second round. That's a second-weekend match-up, folks.
Links
The four games at Cox Arena in San Diego yesterday and last night were pushed back because of a morning bomb scare. Fans with evening session tickets were allowed into the arena just as Illinois and Air Force were tipping off. Thus the first few minutes of the game took place in an eerily empty arena. Columnist Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times mulls over the day's strange events here. So do columnist Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Tribune, here, and columnist Mike Imrem of the Daily Herald, here. "A strange but happy day," sums up oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper.
Bruce Weber on Jamar Smith's night: "Amazing. He got hot. One [shot] in front of us, I yelled, 'Be patient,' and he still shot it. He looked at me and just smiled. I think he was in one of those grooves....It wasn't just the Dee and James Show." Brian Randle on his 15 second-half points: "The second half I felt like I needed to make up for lost time."
Air Force coach Jeff Bzdelik says his team knew going in the Illini would be tough: "As we were calling other teams to gather information, we had people in the Big Ten say that Illinois was the best team. We just couldn't get enough stops." Adds senior Jacob Burtschi: "It was very tough to guard them. We did our best to shut down their power but their other guys stepped up when they were down." And Falcon wing (har!) Dan Nwaelele, sounding uncannily like Sean Connery in The Untouchables, agrees with all of the above: "After we’d hit a shot, they’d hit a shot. If we hit a two, they’d come down and hit a three." ("That's the Chicago way. And that's how you'll get Capone.")
Bury my heart at Austin Peay. Illinois has now won nine consecutive NCAA tournament first-round games.
(6) Indiana 87, (11) San Diego State 83
I've never seen a player's ignorance of the rules be so decisive in the final seconds of an NCAA tournament game. With San Diego State leading 83-82 and 20 seconds to play, the Aztecs had the ball and about 15 seconds left on the shot clock. Brandon Heath was dribbling near mid-court when Marshall Strickland poked the ball into the backcourt. But instead of simply retrieving the ball, Heath tried to block Strickland's path. The Aztec guard apparently thought that if he touched the ball it would be an over-and-back violation. Strickland dove for the ball and got into a tie-up with Heath: possession arrow, Indiana, with 13.3 seconds left. Then, off a near-SDSU steal, the hobbled Robert Vaden sank the game-winning three with 3.3 seconds on the clock. Thus ended a wild night of much tension and little D. The Aztecs led by as many as ten in the second half and shot much better than the Hoosiers for the game. But the 16 turnovers for SDSU versus only nine for IU proved to be crucial. "Our guys kept fighting," Mike Davis said. Added Vaden: "We can get behind but we never feel like we’re out of it." Vaden, Marco Killingsworth, and the suddenly assertive Earl Calloway each scored 18 points for Indiana. Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rick Bozich says the Hoosiers won despite "foul trouble, injured players and defense that most coaches would be embarrassed to call defense." "On a losing note" note: At 6-10, Mohamed Abukar did his best Steve Novak-in-2003 imitation, lighting the Hoosiers up for 24 points, six of them on threes. (Box score.)
Next: (3) Gonzaga, come-from-behind 79-75 winners over (14) Xavier. Speaking of Adam Morrison, IU assistant coach Donnie Marsh says: "I think we may need to know where that guy is."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Four games today for the Big Ten, three during working hours. Bless you ncaasports.com....
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Davidson, Dayton (12:15pm ET)
Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton
The Wildcats shoot as many threes as do the Buckeyes, which is a lot. And, though OSU's been misfiring from outside of late, Davidson doesn't have Terence Dials. Add in the Wildcats' (very) weak defense and the potential for another Hampton-Iowa State should be low. Inveterate optimist alert! Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says the Buckeyes just need to shoot their way out of this slump. And Thad Matta acknowledges his team's been shooting plenty o' bricks but prefers to see the glass as half-full: "We’ve beaten some great basketball teams not shooting the ball well." (Matta also says never mind the opening at Indiana: "I will be back." Xavier fans will be forgiven for rolling their eyes.)...Profile of J.J. Sullinger (and the family) here. Profile of Davidson father-and-son team Bob (coach) and Matt (guard) McKillop here.
(3) Iowa vs. (14) Northwestern St., Auburn Hills (12:25pm ET)
Wonk 360: Iowa in Auburn Hills
Think of Northwestern St. as kind of like last year's Wisconsin-Milwaukee team: up-tempo, playing lots of players, going for the turnovers. Will that work against the Hawkeyes? It may to an extent--Iowa's surprisingly turnover-prone for such a veteran bunch--but I don't think it will work well enough. Watch for a surprising number of offensive boards for Greg Brunner and perhaps even Erek Hansen, plus a slower game than the Demons would like....We hope that won't be necessary. Northwestern St. guard Jermaine Wallace on today's game: "We're going to go out as hard as we can to win this ballgame. Even if we have to die." Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler says Northwestern St. is for real: "Doubt the Demons at your peril." A salute to the Demons' seniors here. But inveterate iconoclast Steve Alford says he for one isn't too worried about Northwestern St.'s much talked-about athleticism: "I don't know if they are any more athletic than Illinois or Michigan State, Ohio State."
(9) Wisconsin vs. (8) Arizona, Philadelphia (12:30pm ET)
Wonk 360: Wisconsin in Philly
Rebounds figure to be plentiful in this game between two very poor shooting teams. In fact, this could be a low-scoring affair. The Wildcats have no outside shooting threat whatsoever, meaning the very long Badgers may be able to pack the paint defensively. Return of Ryan. Chester, PA, native Bo Ryan says he's happy to be playing this game so close to home. And when the coach is happy the players are happy. Says Kammron Taylor: "I haven't seen him smile this much all year. That's a good thing." Profile of Brian Butch here....What does Arizona big man Kirk Walters know about UW? "They come from a tough conference. I know they rebound and defend well. We're really going to have to push the ball and try to get them out of their game."...Hassan Adams, back from his DUI-related suspension, says he's ready to go.
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) George Mason, Dayton (7:10pm ET)
Wonk 360: Michigan State in Dayton
Despite what Patriots coach Jim Larranaga says, I think the chances of this being an interesting game would be higher if not for the absence of starting Patriot point guard Tony Skinn (suspended for punching a player in the CAA tournament). And, who knows, maybe it'll still be interesting. But if so, George Mason will have to ride big man Jai Lewis. They'll also have to go 40 minutes and stick with a Spartan team that's been complaining all year of a lack of depth but suddenly finds itself deeper than its first-round opponent. Let the Spartan speculating begin! Detroit News columnist Bob Wojnowski says Michigan State has been consistently inconsistent this year. Tom Izzo says his program's impressive record of success in March is a welcome burden: "That's where I want this program right now. I want it at tournament time to shine." Still, Izzo admits the success may have given fans the wrong impression: "Don't think the coach is going to wave a magic wand. I do worry about it a little bit. Our fans, everybody just thinks it's going to happen. That's not going to be the case."...Mo Ager says he prefers the pressure of a win-or-go-home setting: "I always feel much better in the tournament."...Patriot big man Lewis says losing to State by just six points last season gives him and his teammates added confidence: "That just lets us know that we can compete, give us the extra oomph we need."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
In defense of the Spartan defense
Love your blog, read it every day.
In your Wonk 360 section, I read this today:
"Look the other way: Observers comment incessantly on State's lack of depth when in fact this year the Spartans' depth merely resembles that of a normal team. But perhaps the men in green have taken the talk to heart: they play like a thin team at times, especially on defense. MSU never forces turnovers from their opponents and their FG defense is mediocre at best. (And has this team officially given up completely on trying to push the tempo?)"
I don't believe that this is a case of State attempting to force turnovers and failing. State doesn't try to force turnovers nearly as aggressively as other teams. I'm far from in the know, but it would seem that Izzo coaches a steady, low-risk style of defense. Players (especially Shannon Brown) will take swats at the ball when they're on their man but you rarely see the Spartan backcourt overplaying passing lanes--for good reason. I'd say that for every time a turnover is created from an aggressive defender overplaying a passing lane, there's another time where the defender blows it and leaves his man open for a three or dribble penetration. Far better to play sound defense, which leads to bad shots, which leads to defensive rebounds. That being said, when defense isn't as good (like this year) and you're not forcing as many bad shots, this philosophy isn't as effective.
As to pushing the tempo, it's not worth it in the Big Ten anymore considering the way opponents play MSU. Very rarely do you see opposing teams sending three or four players to the boards on offense. It's much more common to see the "take a shot and everyone run away" strategy employed. MSU opponents seem to think that few offensive rebounds is a fair trade to stop State's devastatingly effective transition attack. Early in the Big Ten season especially, you'd see MSU players sprinting down the floor at every opportunity but to zero advantage since all but one or two of the opposing players have already taken up defensive positions. The only result of this was an exhausted Neitzel and company, so tactics had to change.
It will be interesting to see how team(s) play State in the tourney. I think the MSU players are practically salivating at the thought of playing an opponent who's been watching tapes of all these slow-paced late-season State games and therefore expecting a team that plays much slower than the one they'll meet on the court.
Steve M.
Spartan in Madison
Thanks, Steve. Yes, absolutely: Izzo prefers to stay in front of the ball rather than go for a steal. Thus opponent turnovers will be low in any season. But, as you point out, this year they're really low.
And your point about opponents trading chances at offensive boards in exchange for slowing State down reminds me of something I've been mulling. I wonder if offensive rebounding is worse than it used to be in the Big Ten and, thus, transition D is better. The numbers on the offensive glass are definitely down this year in comparison to last year. Two years doesn't make a trend, of course. Still, I can't help but wonder. ¶ 6:14 AM
The Big Ten went 2-0 last night against the Mountain West. With some help from Brandon Heath....
(4) Illinois 78, (13) Air Force 69
Every Illini fan should email their heartfelt thanks to Jamar Smith. On most other nights his 20 points on six threes would have been a pleasing diversion in a blowout. Last night, however, Illinois actually needed those threes, as the men from the Air Force Academy were busy sinking 13 of their own. Indeed, I was very surprised by the amount of points scored here. (Update: Bruce Weber agrees! "I'll be honest, I was thinking it would be 53-49 or something like that.") Make no mistake, this was in fact a slow game (60 possessions) but both teams shot extremely well, with Air Force (67.1 effective FG pct.) doing even better than the Illini (66.0 eFG pct.). It must be a little disconcerting for Weber to see his team post a defensive rebound percentage of 95.5 (not a typo) and yet still give up 1.15 points per possession. What can you say? The Falcons shot a lot of threes (27 of their 41 attempts) and made a lot. (Six different Air Force players made threes--four made more than one.) The good news is Illinois, powered by 75 percent shooting on their twos, scored a scorching 1.30 points per possession last night. Turns out they needed them....Two additional notes: 1) Don't let the Smith mania make you overlook Brian Randle's performance last night. After sitting out the last 13 minutes of the first half with two fouls, Randle scored 15 points in the second half on 6-of-9 shooting. And 2) Dee Brown came within at least shouting distance of a tri-dub: eight points, eight boards, ten assists. (Box score.)
Next: (5) Washington, 75-61 winners over (12) Utah State. Brian Randle guarding Brandon Roy: much too enticing for the second round. That's a second-weekend match-up, folks.
Links
The four games at Cox Arena in San Diego yesterday and last night were pushed back because of a morning bomb scare. Fans with evening session tickets were allowed into the arena just as Illinois and Air Force were tipping off. Thus the first few minutes of the game took place in an eerily empty arena. Columnist Jay Mariotti of the Chicago Sun-Times mulls over the day's strange events here. So do columnist Rick Morrissey of the Chicago Tribune, here, and columnist Mike Imrem of the Daily Herald, here. "A strange but happy day," sums up oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper.
Bruce Weber on Jamar Smith's night: "Amazing. He got hot. One [shot] in front of us, I yelled, 'Be patient,' and he still shot it. He looked at me and just smiled. I think he was in one of those grooves....It wasn't just the Dee and James Show." Brian Randle on his 15 second-half points: "The second half I felt like I needed to make up for lost time."
Air Force coach Jeff Bzdelik says his team knew going in the Illini would be tough: "As we were calling other teams to gather information, we had people in the Big Ten say that Illinois was the best team. We just couldn't get enough stops." Adds senior Jacob Burtschi: "It was very tough to guard them. We did our best to shut down their power but their other guys stepped up when they were down." And Falcon wing (har!) Dan Nwaelele, sounding uncannily like Sean Connery in The Untouchables, agrees with all of the above: "After we’d hit a shot, they’d hit a shot. If we hit a two, they’d come down and hit a three." ("That's the Chicago way. And that's how you'll get Capone.")
Bury my heart at Austin Peay. Illinois has now won nine consecutive NCAA tournament first-round games.
(6) Indiana 87, (11) San Diego State 83
I've never seen a player's ignorance of the rules be so decisive in the final seconds of an NCAA tournament game. With San Diego State leading 83-82 and 20 seconds to play, the Aztecs had the ball and about 15 seconds left on the shot clock. Brandon Heath was dribbling near mid-court when Marshall Strickland poked the ball into the backcourt. But instead of simply retrieving the ball, Heath tried to block Strickland's path. The Aztec guard apparently thought that if he touched the ball it would be an over-and-back violation. Strickland dove for the ball and got into a tie-up with Heath: possession arrow, Indiana, with 13.3 seconds left. Then, off a near-SDSU steal, the hobbled Robert Vaden sank the game-winning three with 3.3 seconds on the clock. Thus ended a wild night of much tension and little D. The Aztecs led by as many as ten in the second half and shot much better than the Hoosiers for the game. But the 16 turnovers for SDSU versus only nine for IU proved to be crucial. "Our guys kept fighting," Mike Davis said. Added Vaden: "We can get behind but we never feel like we’re out of it." Vaden, Marco Killingsworth, and the suddenly assertive Earl Calloway each scored 18 points for Indiana. Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rick Bozich says the Hoosiers won despite "foul trouble, injured players and defense that most coaches would be embarrassed to call defense." "On a losing note" note: At 6-10, Mohamed Abukar did his best Steve Novak-in-2003 imitation, lighting the Hoosiers up for 24 points, six of them on threes. (Box score.)
Next: (3) Gonzaga, come-from-behind 79-75 winners over (14) Xavier. Speaking of Adam Morrison, IU assistant coach Donnie Marsh says: "I think we may need to know where that guy is."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Four games today for the Big Ten, three during working hours. Bless you ncaasports.com....
(2) Ohio State vs. (15) Davidson, Dayton (12:15pm ET)
Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton
The Wildcats shoot as many threes as do the Buckeyes, which is a lot. And, though OSU's been misfiring from outside of late, Davidson doesn't have Terence Dials. Add in the Wildcats' (very) weak defense and the potential for another Hampton-Iowa State should be low. Inveterate optimist alert! Columbus Dispatch columnist Bob Hunter says the Buckeyes just need to shoot their way out of this slump. And Thad Matta acknowledges his team's been shooting plenty o' bricks but prefers to see the glass as half-full: "We’ve beaten some great basketball teams not shooting the ball well." (Matta also says never mind the opening at Indiana: "I will be back." Xavier fans will be forgiven for rolling their eyes.)...Profile of J.J. Sullinger (and the family) here. Profile of Davidson father-and-son team Bob (coach) and Matt (guard) McKillop here.
(3) Iowa vs. (14) Northwestern St., Auburn Hills (12:25pm ET)
Wonk 360: Iowa in Auburn Hills
Think of Northwestern St. as kind of like last year's Wisconsin-Milwaukee team: up-tempo, playing lots of players, going for the turnovers. Will that work against the Hawkeyes? It may to an extent--Iowa's surprisingly turnover-prone for such a veteran bunch--but I don't think it will work well enough. Watch for a surprising number of offensive boards for Greg Brunner and perhaps even Erek Hansen, plus a slower game than the Demons would like....We hope that won't be necessary. Northwestern St. guard Jermaine Wallace on today's game: "We're going to go out as hard as we can to win this ballgame. Even if we have to die." Des Moines Register columnist Sean Keeler says Northwestern St. is for real: "Doubt the Demons at your peril." A salute to the Demons' seniors here. But inveterate iconoclast Steve Alford says he for one isn't too worried about Northwestern St.'s much talked-about athleticism: "I don't know if they are any more athletic than Illinois or Michigan State, Ohio State."
(9) Wisconsin vs. (8) Arizona, Philadelphia (12:30pm ET)
Wonk 360: Wisconsin in Philly
Rebounds figure to be plentiful in this game between two very poor shooting teams. In fact, this could be a low-scoring affair. The Wildcats have no outside shooting threat whatsoever, meaning the very long Badgers may be able to pack the paint defensively. Return of Ryan. Chester, PA, native Bo Ryan says he's happy to be playing this game so close to home. And when the coach is happy the players are happy. Says Kammron Taylor: "I haven't seen him smile this much all year. That's a good thing." Profile of Brian Butch here....What does Arizona big man Kirk Walters know about UW? "They come from a tough conference. I know they rebound and defend well. We're really going to have to push the ball and try to get them out of their game."...Hassan Adams, back from his DUI-related suspension, says he's ready to go.
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) George Mason, Dayton (7:10pm ET)
Wonk 360: Michigan State in Dayton
Despite what Patriots coach Jim Larranaga says, I think the chances of this being an interesting game would be higher if not for the absence of starting Patriot point guard Tony Skinn (suspended for punching a player in the CAA tournament). And, who knows, maybe it'll still be interesting. But if so, George Mason will have to ride big man Jai Lewis. They'll also have to go 40 minutes and stick with a Spartan team that's been complaining all year of a lack of depth but suddenly finds itself deeper than its first-round opponent. Let the Spartan speculating begin! Detroit News columnist Bob Wojnowski says Michigan State has been consistently inconsistent this year. Tom Izzo says his program's impressive record of success in March is a welcome burden: "That's where I want this program right now. I want it at tournament time to shine." Still, Izzo admits the success may have given fans the wrong impression: "Don't think the coach is going to wave a magic wand. I do worry about it a little bit. Our fans, everybody just thinks it's going to happen. That's not going to be the case."...Mo Ager says he prefers the pressure of a win-or-go-home setting: "I always feel much better in the tournament."...Patriot big man Lewis says losing to State by just six points last season gives him and his teammates added confidence: "That just lets us know that we can compete, give us the extra oomph we need."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
In defense of the Spartan defense
Love your blog, read it every day.
In your Wonk 360 section, I read this today:
"Look the other way: Observers comment incessantly on State's lack of depth when in fact this year the Spartans' depth merely resembles that of a normal team. But perhaps the men in green have taken the talk to heart: they play like a thin team at times, especially on defense. MSU never forces turnovers from their opponents and their FG defense is mediocre at best. (And has this team officially given up completely on trying to push the tempo?)"
I don't believe that this is a case of State attempting to force turnovers and failing. State doesn't try to force turnovers nearly as aggressively as other teams. I'm far from in the know, but it would seem that Izzo coaches a steady, low-risk style of defense. Players (especially Shannon Brown) will take swats at the ball when they're on their man but you rarely see the Spartan backcourt overplaying passing lanes--for good reason. I'd say that for every time a turnover is created from an aggressive defender overplaying a passing lane, there's another time where the defender blows it and leaves his man open for a three or dribble penetration. Far better to play sound defense, which leads to bad shots, which leads to defensive rebounds. That being said, when defense isn't as good (like this year) and you're not forcing as many bad shots, this philosophy isn't as effective.
As to pushing the tempo, it's not worth it in the Big Ten anymore considering the way opponents play MSU. Very rarely do you see opposing teams sending three or four players to the boards on offense. It's much more common to see the "take a shot and everyone run away" strategy employed. MSU opponents seem to think that few offensive rebounds is a fair trade to stop State's devastatingly effective transition attack. Early in the Big Ten season especially, you'd see MSU players sprinting down the floor at every opportunity but to zero advantage since all but one or two of the opposing players have already taken up defensive positions. The only result of this was an exhausted Neitzel and company, so tactics had to change.
It will be interesting to see how team(s) play State in the tourney. I think the MSU players are practically salivating at the thought of playing an opponent who's been watching tapes of all these slow-paced late-season State games and therefore expecting a team that plays much slower than the one they'll meet on the court.
Steve M.
Spartan in Madison
Thanks, Steve. Yes, absolutely: Izzo prefers to stay in front of the ball rather than go for a steal. Thus opponent turnovers will be low in any season. But, as you point out, this year they're really low.
And your point about opponents trading chances at offensive boards in exchange for slowing State down reminds me of something I've been mulling. I wonder if offensive rebounding is worse than it used to be in the Big Ten and, thus, transition D is better. The numbers on the offensive glass are definitely down this year in comparison to last year. Two years doesn't make a trend, of course. Still, I can't help but wonder. ¶ 6:14 AM
Thursday, March 16, 2006
Drama, magnitude, and finality
(Today's post continues a (young) tradition.)
The tournament starts in earnest today when Wichita State tips off against Seton Hall in Greensboro, NC. And so at 12:20 EST begins the best sporting event of the year. By far....
(Almost) every November, when college football is noisily twisting itself into bewildering BCS knots trying to determine who will play for the national championship, I thank the bracket gods for giving us such a beautifully Euclidean way of determining who will play for the national championship.
Every May and June, when the NBA inflicts upon us "playoffs" that occupy about as much time as the Crimean War (I especially appreciate the four-day pauses between first-round games, drawing out the suspense of that tense San Antonio vs. Denver series), I thank the bracket gods for giving us such a tidy three-week method of going from 300+ to 65 to one.
Every January-February, when the NFL presents a Super Bowl that feels so oddly disconnected from and unrelated to an actual football game, I thank the bracket gods for giving us tournament games that are the very epitome of college hoops (Laettner, Drew, et. al.).
Every October when baseball gives us its best games in indigestible four-hour slabs in the dark of late-night in game-altering 30-degree weather, I thank the bracket gods for selecting their champion in two-hour installments in precisely the right game-enhancing venues (neutral floors, opposing fans, opposing bands).
And every October 15, I thank the bracket gods for starting the cycle anew.
"Drama, magnitude and finality"? It's lifted from those erstwhile wordsmiths at the Supreme Court, ruling against President Truman some 54 years ago. I think the Supremes of a half-century ago would happily concede that theirs is a better description of March Madness than of what they thought they were describing (the presidency).
Starting today, each game is the most important game of the year. Each game eliminates one more team. And there is one fewer game than there are teams.
As of this morning, it's all still in front of us. Nice moment, this.
(4) Illinois vs. (13) Air Force, San Diego (7:25pm ET)
Wonk 360: Illinois in San Diego
Despite what you've read, the Falcons, while very sound on defense, are not truly "one of the better defensive teams in the country." It's just that they slow the game down to a crawl (only Princeton averages fewer possessions per 40 minutes). They also shoot a lot of threes and shoot them well. Illinois can win slow--they've done it against Northwestern (twice) and Georgetown this year--and should have little trouble gaining an advantage on the boards. Also turnovers are likely to be a wash, I think (despite the fact that Air Force, like NU, is very successful at creating turnovers). So it could come down to shooting. It will most certainly help the Illini's chances against the Air Force zone if Rich McBride, Jamar Smith, and, yes, Dee Brown, are "on" from outside.
Links
Air Force guard Antoine Hood says he and his teammates have heard the criticism of the selection committee for extending a bid to the Falcons: "As coach says, the most dangerous animal in the forest is a wounded one. Everyone’s been stabbing us repeatedly, so I’d say we’re very dangerous right now." Matt McCraw agrees: "We're going to have unbelievable energy." St. Louis Post Dispatch columnist Bryan Burwell salutes Hood here. And Dennis Dodd of cbs.sportsline salutes the entire Falcon team here.
Bruce Weber says he's warned his team they will have to play their best: "We all watched last year when Bucknell beat Kansas. If you don't come ready to play, you'll be on the highlights for all the wrong reasons." But Weber thinks Illinois will be ready: "We're a blue-collar team. They're doing a great job of accepting what they are, relying on defense and rebounding. If we do that, we can play a few games." James Augustine says there's less pressure on the team than last year: "This year we are an underdog."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says he thinks "Air Force is way underrated. That said, I still think Illinois should win by 10 to 12 if it shoots the ball fairly well and nothing off-the-wall weird happens (injuries, a stack of early fouls, etc.)." Dee Brown agrees with the "underrated" part: "Lower seeds are really good teams. They don't come from power conferences, but they're real talented and real determined to prove they can play." Brown also says tournament games are a different animal: "The intensity level is so high, I just can’t explain it. You’ve just got to play in it."
(6) Indiana vs. (11) San Diego St., Salt Lake City (9:40pm ET)
Wonk 360: Indiana in Salt Lake
As a shameless Big Ten homer I am admittedly nervous about this game. The Aztecs' offense rates about 30 rungs higher nationally than IU's and they do it on the inside, where the Hoosiers are most vulnerable defensively. Marcus Slaughter is a monster on the offensive boards and when he's not cleaning the glass he's making the latest in a series of frequent trips to the free throw line. That being said, SDSU has some interior defense issues of its own. Mike Davis should require his men to start every possession with a look inside to Marco Killingsworth. The strength of both teams' defenses is on the perimeter--but the Aztecs (Mountain West POY Brandon Heath notwithstanding) don't shoot many threes and the Hoosiers do. Keep an eye on this one.
Links
San Diego State has never won an NCAA tournament game. Salute to SDSU seniors Mohamed Camara, John Sharper, and Trimaine Davis here.
IU senior Marshall Strickland says he and his teammates have played much better since Mike Davis announced his resignation: "The month leading up to coach resigning, it just seemed like we were walking into every game down 15 points." Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rich Bozich says playing a tournament with a lame duck coach is a unique situation: "The more Davis wins, the longer he stays. And the more Davis wins, the stranger this strange goodbye dance will surely become."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The patented Wonk 360 technology has gone to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break those four teams down. Mosey on over to the sidebar and enjoy!
That beloved quartet of Big Ten tourney teams who aren't playing today!
Ohio State backup big man Matt Terwilliger may be available for limited minutes this weekend. Terwilliger is recovering from an appendectomy performed last week....Terence Dials says Je'Kel Foster's current shooting slump is "mind-boggling."...Salute to Thad Matta here....The Buckeyes' first-round opponent is Davidson and these two teams played an NCAA tournament game in 2002, with OSU prevailing 69-64. But Wildcat coach Bob McKillop says that game means nothing: "Different coach and different players for them. Different venue. Nothing comparable at all."
Iowa faces Northwestern State tomorrow and Demons coach Mike McConathy says his team likes its up-tempo style: "We play a lot of people and because of that, we feel like it's important for us to play at a high level of intensity because we think we've got 10 or 11 players who are very good basketball players, and if they are playing as hard as they can over the 40 minutes when they're in there we'll have the opportunity to play at a higher level."...Salute to state of Iowa products Jeff Horner, Greg Brunner, and Adam Haluska here. Horner admits he didn't know his team would achieve this level of success on defense this year: "We felt like we could be a good defensive team this year, but the numbers have been a little surprising. Last year, we were an OK defensive team, but it wasn’t anything like this."
Michigan State wing Mo Ager says the Spartans have to develop a killer instinct: "When we're up on a team, not to sound cocky, but just put them away and get our subs in."...Bold iconoclasm alert! These articles say State will live or die according to Drew Neitzel's offensive production. These articles couldn't be more mistaken. Ranked among the top 15 offenses in the country and blessed with the likes of Shannon Brown and the absurdly underrated Paul Davis, MSU's scoring will almost certainly be just fine, whether Neitzel records 12 points or two. The question mark--with the team most of the time and with Neitzel all of the time--is on D.
Former Wisconsin coach Dick Bennett has had the opportunity, as Washington State coach, to observe Arizona very closely. His verdict on the Wildcats? "Erratic."...Alando Tucker says he's used to opposing teams focusing their attention on him: "Mentally I prepare myself beforehand that I know I'm going to go in and I'm going to take a beating."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Zero? As in zero zero?
John,
I never cease to be amazed by Seth Davis. Earlier this year I see him call the Big East the best conference in the history of college basketball, when they are third (at the time) in the conference RPI rankings and ended up second, behind the Big Ten. They were 23-21 versus the other power conferences, compared to the Big Ten's 21-14. Hardly a record befitting the best conference in the history of college basketball (he did make that claim while interviewing Jim Calhoun--great unbiased journalism on display). The Big East did get eight teams in the tournament, which represents exactly half of the conference. The Big Ten got in 55% (6 of 11). Although the Big Ten had a good year, neither conference is anywhere near some of the ACC years when they would get in six out of nine teams and be number 1 in RPI by a wide margin.
Now check out his bracket: he has the Big Ten getting no teams to the sweet sixteen - Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa losing in round 1, and MSU, Illinois and Ohio State losing in round 2, for a record of 3-6. For comparison's sake, he has the Big East going 20-7, with six teams getting to the sweet sixteen, four to the Elite 8, and two to the Final Four, with Villanova winning in all. I have heard of an east coast bias, but this is a little over the top. Where can I find a spot to bet the Big Ten +16 in 2006 NCAA tourney wins versus the Big East? Maybe Seth will take my action!
Tim E,
Minneapolis
No Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16? Isn't it beautiful that we don't have to chew this over? Just sit back and wait 84 hours. We'll see.... ¶ 5:31 AM
(Today's post continues a (young) tradition.)
The tournament starts in earnest today when Wichita State tips off against Seton Hall in Greensboro, NC. And so at 12:20 EST begins the best sporting event of the year. By far....
(Almost) every November, when college football is noisily twisting itself into bewildering BCS knots trying to determine who will play for the national championship, I thank the bracket gods for giving us such a beautifully Euclidean way of determining who will play for the national championship.
Every May and June, when the NBA inflicts upon us "playoffs" that occupy about as much time as the Crimean War (I especially appreciate the four-day pauses between first-round games, drawing out the suspense of that tense San Antonio vs. Denver series), I thank the bracket gods for giving us such a tidy three-week method of going from 300+ to 65 to one.
Every January-February, when the NFL presents a Super Bowl that feels so oddly disconnected from and unrelated to an actual football game, I thank the bracket gods for giving us tournament games that are the very epitome of college hoops (Laettner, Drew, et. al.).
Every October when baseball gives us its best games in indigestible four-hour slabs in the dark of late-night in game-altering 30-degree weather, I thank the bracket gods for selecting their champion in two-hour installments in precisely the right game-enhancing venues (neutral floors, opposing fans, opposing bands).
And every October 15, I thank the bracket gods for starting the cycle anew.
"Drama, magnitude and finality"? It's lifted from those erstwhile wordsmiths at the Supreme Court, ruling against President Truman some 54 years ago. I think the Supremes of a half-century ago would happily concede that theirs is a better description of March Madness than of what they thought they were describing (the presidency).
Starting today, each game is the most important game of the year. Each game eliminates one more team. And there is one fewer game than there are teams.
As of this morning, it's all still in front of us. Nice moment, this.
(4) Illinois vs. (13) Air Force, San Diego (7:25pm ET)
Wonk 360: Illinois in San Diego
Despite what you've read, the Falcons, while very sound on defense, are not truly "one of the better defensive teams in the country." It's just that they slow the game down to a crawl (only Princeton averages fewer possessions per 40 minutes). They also shoot a lot of threes and shoot them well. Illinois can win slow--they've done it against Northwestern (twice) and Georgetown this year--and should have little trouble gaining an advantage on the boards. Also turnovers are likely to be a wash, I think (despite the fact that Air Force, like NU, is very successful at creating turnovers). So it could come down to shooting. It will most certainly help the Illini's chances against the Air Force zone if Rich McBride, Jamar Smith, and, yes, Dee Brown, are "on" from outside.
Links
Air Force guard Antoine Hood says he and his teammates have heard the criticism of the selection committee for extending a bid to the Falcons: "As coach says, the most dangerous animal in the forest is a wounded one. Everyone’s been stabbing us repeatedly, so I’d say we’re very dangerous right now." Matt McCraw agrees: "We're going to have unbelievable energy." St. Louis Post Dispatch columnist Bryan Burwell salutes Hood here. And Dennis Dodd of cbs.sportsline salutes the entire Falcon team here.
Bruce Weber says he's warned his team they will have to play their best: "We all watched last year when Bucknell beat Kansas. If you don't come ready to play, you'll be on the highlights for all the wrong reasons." But Weber thinks Illinois will be ready: "We're a blue-collar team. They're doing a great job of accepting what they are, relying on defense and rebounding. If we do that, we can play a few games." James Augustine says there's less pressure on the team than last year: "This year we are an underdog."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says he thinks "Air Force is way underrated. That said, I still think Illinois should win by 10 to 12 if it shoots the ball fairly well and nothing off-the-wall weird happens (injuries, a stack of early fouls, etc.)." Dee Brown agrees with the "underrated" part: "Lower seeds are really good teams. They don't come from power conferences, but they're real talented and real determined to prove they can play." Brown also says tournament games are a different animal: "The intensity level is so high, I just can’t explain it. You’ve just got to play in it."
(6) Indiana vs. (11) San Diego St., Salt Lake City (9:40pm ET)
Wonk 360: Indiana in Salt Lake
As a shameless Big Ten homer I am admittedly nervous about this game. The Aztecs' offense rates about 30 rungs higher nationally than IU's and they do it on the inside, where the Hoosiers are most vulnerable defensively. Marcus Slaughter is a monster on the offensive boards and when he's not cleaning the glass he's making the latest in a series of frequent trips to the free throw line. That being said, SDSU has some interior defense issues of its own. Mike Davis should require his men to start every possession with a look inside to Marco Killingsworth. The strength of both teams' defenses is on the perimeter--but the Aztecs (Mountain West POY Brandon Heath notwithstanding) don't shoot many threes and the Hoosiers do. Keep an eye on this one.
Links
San Diego State has never won an NCAA tournament game. Salute to SDSU seniors Mohamed Camara, John Sharper, and Trimaine Davis here.
IU senior Marshall Strickland says he and his teammates have played much better since Mike Davis announced his resignation: "The month leading up to coach resigning, it just seemed like we were walking into every game down 15 points." Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rich Bozich says playing a tournament with a lame duck coach is a unique situation: "The more Davis wins, the longer he stays. And the more Davis wins, the stranger this strange goodbye dance will surely become."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The patented Wonk 360 technology has gone to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break those four teams down. Mosey on over to the sidebar and enjoy!
That beloved quartet of Big Ten tourney teams who aren't playing today!
Ohio State backup big man Matt Terwilliger may be available for limited minutes this weekend. Terwilliger is recovering from an appendectomy performed last week....Terence Dials says Je'Kel Foster's current shooting slump is "mind-boggling."...Salute to Thad Matta here....The Buckeyes' first-round opponent is Davidson and these two teams played an NCAA tournament game in 2002, with OSU prevailing 69-64. But Wildcat coach Bob McKillop says that game means nothing: "Different coach and different players for them. Different venue. Nothing comparable at all."
Iowa faces Northwestern State tomorrow and Demons coach Mike McConathy says his team likes its up-tempo style: "We play a lot of people and because of that, we feel like it's important for us to play at a high level of intensity because we think we've got 10 or 11 players who are very good basketball players, and if they are playing as hard as they can over the 40 minutes when they're in there we'll have the opportunity to play at a higher level."...Salute to state of Iowa products Jeff Horner, Greg Brunner, and Adam Haluska here. Horner admits he didn't know his team would achieve this level of success on defense this year: "We felt like we could be a good defensive team this year, but the numbers have been a little surprising. Last year, we were an OK defensive team, but it wasn’t anything like this."
Michigan State wing Mo Ager says the Spartans have to develop a killer instinct: "When we're up on a team, not to sound cocky, but just put them away and get our subs in."...Bold iconoclasm alert! These articles say State will live or die according to Drew Neitzel's offensive production. These articles couldn't be more mistaken. Ranked among the top 15 offenses in the country and blessed with the likes of Shannon Brown and the absurdly underrated Paul Davis, MSU's scoring will almost certainly be just fine, whether Neitzel records 12 points or two. The question mark--with the team most of the time and with Neitzel all of the time--is on D.
Former Wisconsin coach Dick Bennett has had the opportunity, as Washington State coach, to observe Arizona very closely. His verdict on the Wildcats? "Erratic."...Alando Tucker says he's used to opposing teams focusing their attention on him: "Mentally I prepare myself beforehand that I know I'm going to go in and I'm going to take a beating."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Zero? As in zero zero?
John,
I never cease to be amazed by Seth Davis. Earlier this year I see him call the Big East the best conference in the history of college basketball, when they are third (at the time) in the conference RPI rankings and ended up second, behind the Big Ten. They were 23-21 versus the other power conferences, compared to the Big Ten's 21-14. Hardly a record befitting the best conference in the history of college basketball (he did make that claim while interviewing Jim Calhoun--great unbiased journalism on display). The Big East did get eight teams in the tournament, which represents exactly half of the conference. The Big Ten got in 55% (6 of 11). Although the Big Ten had a good year, neither conference is anywhere near some of the ACC years when they would get in six out of nine teams and be number 1 in RPI by a wide margin.
Now check out his bracket: he has the Big Ten getting no teams to the sweet sixteen - Wisconsin, Indiana and Iowa losing in round 1, and MSU, Illinois and Ohio State losing in round 2, for a record of 3-6. For comparison's sake, he has the Big East going 20-7, with six teams getting to the sweet sixteen, four to the Elite 8, and two to the Final Four, with Villanova winning in all. I have heard of an east coast bias, but this is a little over the top. Where can I find a spot to bet the Big Ten +16 in 2006 NCAA tourney wins versus the Big East? Maybe Seth will take my action!
Tim E,
Minneapolis
No Big Ten teams in the Sweet 16? Isn't it beautiful that we don't have to chew this over? Just sit back and wait 84 hours. We'll see.... ¶ 5:31 AM
Wonk 360: Iowa in Auburn Hills
A look at the teams competing against Iowa in Auburn Hills this weekend to make it to Atlanta and the Sweet 16.
(3) Iowa Hawkeyes (25-8, 11-5 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: With one of the nation's top shot-blockers in Erek Hansen, the Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the country. In conference games Iowa's opponents shot a woeful 43.9 percent on their twos (the Big Ten average is 49.5). The Hawks are also an outstanding defensive rebounding team, with Greg Brunner and key reserve Doug Thomas doing the bulk of the work.
Look the other way: Iowa had only the seventh-best offense in the Big Ten this season. In fact, as a team the Hawks were less efficient in their scoring than Penn State. Moreover, this level of offensive mediocrity is systemic. Shooting, holding on to the ball, offensive rebounding, you name it: Iowa ranks no higher than 198th nationally in any of the above. (Their best results often come from feeding Brunner in the post. Though small, the oft-fouled Brunner is tenacious and has nice footwork.)
Etc. Big Ten opponents connected on 34.8 percent of their threes against Iowa. What's interesting about that? It's just surprising that a defense this good allows opponents a success rate on threes that is almost exactly the conference average....Mike Henderson gets many open looks from defenses concentrating on Jeff Horner and Adam Haluska. And, albeit slowly, Henderson of late has been showing more of an ability to translate those looks into points.
(14) Northwestern St. Demons (25-7, 15-1 Southland)
Feast your eyes: With ten players averaging at least 13 minutes a game, the Demons play an up-tempo style that forces turnovers. Starting point guard Tyronn Mitchell is one of the top ten players in the country at creating TOs. Northwestern St. is also very good on the offensive glass--and their best offensive rebounder is 6-1 guard (!) Luke Rogers.
Look the other way: The first thing a Northwestern St. player does when he gets out of bed in the morning is to find the nearest person and foul them, often with a loud skin-on-skin slap that no ref could miss. These guys hack a ton. (And I can't think of a worse characteristic for an Iowa opponent to have: the Hawkeyes' otherwise middling offense thrives on free throws.) They're also shaky at the free throw line, hitting just 67.2 percent.
Etc. The Demons are a surprisingly popular pick to knock off the Hawkeyes. After all, it is said, they won at Oklahoma State. Well, yeah, they did. Then again, they also lost at Sam Houston State. Sorry, I'm just not seeing it.
(6) West Virginia Mountaineers (20-10, 11-5 Big East)
Feast your eyes: The Mountaineers' strength is their offense--albeit, a strikingly unconventional offense. For instance, they shoot a very high number of threes (slightly more than half their shots) even though their accuracy from beyond the arc is merely average. But they hit the twos with a vengeance and so their overall effective FG percentage is quite good. Sure Kevin Pittsnogle gets most of the ink but kindly direct your attention toward Mike Gansey, a veritable freak of offensive nature. (You've been Gansied!) If you think you have the 6-4 Gansey pegged because he's an excellent (44.3) three-point shooter, think again. His 65.8 2FG percentage puts him ahead of Terence Dials, Paul Davis, James Augustine, Marco Killingsworth, or Courtney Sims. (And Gansey shoots roughly equal numbers of twos and threes--as I said, a freak.) What's more, WVU never turns the ball over. I mean like near-Temple-never: only 12.7 percent of WVU possessions end in a turnover. For the uninitiated, let me translate: that is just sick.
Look the other way: The Mountaineers simply don't bother with offensive rebounds (332nd out of 334 Division I teams--yes, Northwestern's even worse!) or going to the line (333rd). Numbers this bad are a conscious choice and Mountaineer coach John Beilein plainly feels WVU's system offsets these deficiencies. For the most part this season, he's been correct. (Truth be known, the Mountaineers do without rebounding, period--their numbers on the defensive glass are almost as bad.)
Etc. If the WVU defense doesn't force a turnover, which they do quite well, and if they don't block the shot, which they also do quite well, then you're likely about to see a score--because the Mountaineers' FG defense is woeful. As I said, this is a team of extremes: they do just about everything either very well or very poorly.
(11) Southern Illinois Salukis (22-10, 12-6 Missouri Valley)
Feast your eyes: The Salukis are all about defense. (If Iowa and SIU both win in the first round and play each other the game may involve a total of about 12 points.) They force their opponents into an incredible number of turnovers: more than 27 percent of SIU's defensive possessions end with the Salukis taking the ball away. Keep an eye on point guard Bryan Mullins: only Mario Chalmers of Kansas produces more steals in tempo-free terms.
Look the other way: Leading scorer Jamaal Tatum has shot 155 threes this season. He's made 45. This may be a good time for some tactful guidance from the coach, no? Tatum's struggles are emblematic of a team that has real trouble putting the ball in the basket. (Need a Big Ten shorthand for the Salukis? Think Minnesota last year.)
Etc. Southern likes a very slow pace, about 62 possessions per 40 minutes. Slow pace and outstanding D: their games won't be things of beauty. ¶ 4:00 AM
A look at the teams competing against Iowa in Auburn Hills this weekend to make it to Atlanta and the Sweet 16.
(3) Iowa Hawkeyes (25-8, 11-5 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: With one of the nation's top shot-blockers in Erek Hansen, the Hawkeyes have one of the best defenses in the country. In conference games Iowa's opponents shot a woeful 43.9 percent on their twos (the Big Ten average is 49.5). The Hawks are also an outstanding defensive rebounding team, with Greg Brunner and key reserve Doug Thomas doing the bulk of the work.
Look the other way: Iowa had only the seventh-best offense in the Big Ten this season. In fact, as a team the Hawks were less efficient in their scoring than Penn State. Moreover, this level of offensive mediocrity is systemic. Shooting, holding on to the ball, offensive rebounding, you name it: Iowa ranks no higher than 198th nationally in any of the above. (Their best results often come from feeding Brunner in the post. Though small, the oft-fouled Brunner is tenacious and has nice footwork.)
Etc. Big Ten opponents connected on 34.8 percent of their threes against Iowa. What's interesting about that? It's just surprising that a defense this good allows opponents a success rate on threes that is almost exactly the conference average....Mike Henderson gets many open looks from defenses concentrating on Jeff Horner and Adam Haluska. And, albeit slowly, Henderson of late has been showing more of an ability to translate those looks into points.
(14) Northwestern St. Demons (25-7, 15-1 Southland)
Feast your eyes: With ten players averaging at least 13 minutes a game, the Demons play an up-tempo style that forces turnovers. Starting point guard Tyronn Mitchell is one of the top ten players in the country at creating TOs. Northwestern St. is also very good on the offensive glass--and their best offensive rebounder is 6-1 guard (!) Luke Rogers.
Look the other way: The first thing a Northwestern St. player does when he gets out of bed in the morning is to find the nearest person and foul them, often with a loud skin-on-skin slap that no ref could miss. These guys hack a ton. (And I can't think of a worse characteristic for an Iowa opponent to have: the Hawkeyes' otherwise middling offense thrives on free throws.) They're also shaky at the free throw line, hitting just 67.2 percent.
Etc. The Demons are a surprisingly popular pick to knock off the Hawkeyes. After all, it is said, they won at Oklahoma State. Well, yeah, they did. Then again, they also lost at Sam Houston State. Sorry, I'm just not seeing it.
(6) West Virginia Mountaineers (20-10, 11-5 Big East)
Feast your eyes: The Mountaineers' strength is their offense--albeit, a strikingly unconventional offense. For instance, they shoot a very high number of threes (slightly more than half their shots) even though their accuracy from beyond the arc is merely average. But they hit the twos with a vengeance and so their overall effective FG percentage is quite good. Sure Kevin Pittsnogle gets most of the ink but kindly direct your attention toward Mike Gansey, a veritable freak of offensive nature. (You've been Gansied!) If you think you have the 6-4 Gansey pegged because he's an excellent (44.3) three-point shooter, think again. His 65.8 2FG percentage puts him ahead of Terence Dials, Paul Davis, James Augustine, Marco Killingsworth, or Courtney Sims. (And Gansey shoots roughly equal numbers of twos and threes--as I said, a freak.) What's more, WVU never turns the ball over. I mean like near-Temple-never: only 12.7 percent of WVU possessions end in a turnover. For the uninitiated, let me translate: that is just sick.
Look the other way: The Mountaineers simply don't bother with offensive rebounds (332nd out of 334 Division I teams--yes, Northwestern's even worse!) or going to the line (333rd). Numbers this bad are a conscious choice and Mountaineer coach John Beilein plainly feels WVU's system offsets these deficiencies. For the most part this season, he's been correct. (Truth be known, the Mountaineers do without rebounding, period--their numbers on the defensive glass are almost as bad.)
Etc. If the WVU defense doesn't force a turnover, which they do quite well, and if they don't block the shot, which they also do quite well, then you're likely about to see a score--because the Mountaineers' FG defense is woeful. As I said, this is a team of extremes: they do just about everything either very well or very poorly.
(11) Southern Illinois Salukis (22-10, 12-6 Missouri Valley)
Feast your eyes: The Salukis are all about defense. (If Iowa and SIU both win in the first round and play each other the game may involve a total of about 12 points.) They force their opponents into an incredible number of turnovers: more than 27 percent of SIU's defensive possessions end with the Salukis taking the ball away. Keep an eye on point guard Bryan Mullins: only Mario Chalmers of Kansas produces more steals in tempo-free terms.
Look the other way: Leading scorer Jamaal Tatum has shot 155 threes this season. He's made 45. This may be a good time for some tactful guidance from the coach, no? Tatum's struggles are emblematic of a team that has real trouble putting the ball in the basket. (Need a Big Ten shorthand for the Salukis? Think Minnesota last year.)
Etc. Southern likes a very slow pace, about 62 possessions per 40 minutes. Slow pace and outstanding D: their games won't be things of beauty. ¶ 4:00 AM
Wonk 360: Michigan State in Dayton
A look at the teams competing against Michigan State in Dayton this weekend to make it to Washington, D.C., and the Sweet 16.
(6) Michigan State Spartans (22-11, 8-8 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Never mind the poor-me facial expression: Paul Davis is one of the best players in the country. He's the most efficient scorer on a team that scores very efficiently. And he's far and away the best defensive rebounder on a team that needs good work on the defensive glass to prop up its D (which is merely average). Not that Davis is alone, however. Shannon Brown is a genuine threat to either drive or hit the three (39.1 3FG pct.--if Brown does stick around next year, he bids fair to reach Luther Head territory). And Drew Neitzel churns out assists like a point guard possessed.
Look the other way: Observers comment incessantly on State's lack of depth when in fact this year the Spartans' depth merely resembles that of a normal team. But perhaps the men in green have taken the talk to heart: they play like a thin team at times, especially on defense. MSU never forces turnovers from their opponents and their FG defense is mediocre at best. (And has this team officially given up completely on trying to push the tempo?)
Etc. Leading scorer Mo Ager bears that distinction, by a small margin, because he shoots more than any other Spartan, by a less-small margin. When he's hitting his shots alongside Davis and Brown, this is a very tough team to beat, whatever its (relative) defensive shortcomings.
(11) George Mason Patriots (23-7, 15-3 CAA)
Feast your eyes: The Patriots rely on their "scramble" defense--Tom Izzo has termed them "a poor man's Illinois." Iowa would be another good parallel, in as much as George Mason held opponents to a low-low effective FG percentage this season: 43.9 percent. But don't stereotype the Patriots just yet: they're also one of the 25 best shooting teams in the country. Leading scorer and (Oliver Miller body-double) Jai Lewis scores his points with Paul Davis-like efficiency.
Look the other way: If Michigan State complains about being thin, they're not likely to get a sympathetic hearing from George Mason. The Patriots have played most of the season without regulars John Vaughan and Jesus Urbina. Then last week starter Tony Skinn was suspended for punching an opponent, um, below the equator, shall we say. (He will play again this year only if GMU wins its first-round game.) This team is dangerously thin.
Etc. There shouldn't be a lot of threes in the first-round game between the Patriots and Michigan State: neither team devotes more than 32 percent of their shots to attempts from beyond the arc....George Mason cracked the top 25 in the polls this year for the first time in the program's history.
(3) North Carolina Tar Heels (22-7, 12-4 ACC)
Feast your eyes: They may be young but this is already a great team, balanced offensively and defensively. (Roy Williams has some horses, granted, but I ask you: can this man not coach?) This offense reminds me a lot of Michigan State last year: they shoot extremely well and, on the rare occasions when they miss, they attack the offensive glass with highly-effective ferocity. Just look at this Tyler Hansbrough character: only a freshman and already putting up Paul Davis-style numbers for scoring efficiently and hitting the offensive boards. Scary. (And check out 5-11 diamond-in-the-rough Wes Miller--a 134.3 offensive rating? I didn't know the numbers went that high. Give him the rock, Roy!) As for the D (and as long as we're invoking the memory of Big Ten teams from last year) the Heels are a lot like Illinois on defense in 2005. No one thing UNC does defensively jumps out at you but they're solid at everything. (OK, a little less solid at creating turnovers.) The result is one of the 20 best defenses in the country.
Look the other way: The Heels turn the ball over a lot. (But, as seen above, they compensate.)
Etc. Reyshawn Terry gives Williams defensive boards and a solid second scorer. But Terry needs to stay out of foul trouble.
(14) Murray State Racers (24-6, 17-3 Ohio Valley)
Feast your eyes: The Racers' FG defense is superb, holding opponents to an effective FG percentage of just 45.1. Pearson Griffith, a 6-10 shot-changer, is the Ohio Valley's answer to Erek Hansen. (And, like Hansen, he needs to avoid foul trouble.) And leading scorer Shawn Witherspoon sports an almost Mike Gansey-like 63.1 2FG percentage.
Look the other way: Murray State's a borderline POT, devoting about 36 percent of their shots to threes--yet they only make 35.7 percent of their shots from out there.
Etc. The Racers have one of the worst offenses in the dance--only Penn, Monmouth, and Southern score less efficiently. ¶ 3:50 AM
A look at the teams competing against Michigan State in Dayton this weekend to make it to Washington, D.C., and the Sweet 16.
(6) Michigan State Spartans (22-11, 8-8 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Never mind the poor-me facial expression: Paul Davis is one of the best players in the country. He's the most efficient scorer on a team that scores very efficiently. And he's far and away the best defensive rebounder on a team that needs good work on the defensive glass to prop up its D (which is merely average). Not that Davis is alone, however. Shannon Brown is a genuine threat to either drive or hit the three (39.1 3FG pct.--if Brown does stick around next year, he bids fair to reach Luther Head territory). And Drew Neitzel churns out assists like a point guard possessed.
Look the other way: Observers comment incessantly on State's lack of depth when in fact this year the Spartans' depth merely resembles that of a normal team. But perhaps the men in green have taken the talk to heart: they play like a thin team at times, especially on defense. MSU never forces turnovers from their opponents and their FG defense is mediocre at best. (And has this team officially given up completely on trying to push the tempo?)
Etc. Leading scorer Mo Ager bears that distinction, by a small margin, because he shoots more than any other Spartan, by a less-small margin. When he's hitting his shots alongside Davis and Brown, this is a very tough team to beat, whatever its (relative) defensive shortcomings.
(11) George Mason Patriots (23-7, 15-3 CAA)
Feast your eyes: The Patriots rely on their "scramble" defense--Tom Izzo has termed them "a poor man's Illinois." Iowa would be another good parallel, in as much as George Mason held opponents to a low-low effective FG percentage this season: 43.9 percent. But don't stereotype the Patriots just yet: they're also one of the 25 best shooting teams in the country. Leading scorer and (Oliver Miller body-double) Jai Lewis scores his points with Paul Davis-like efficiency.
Look the other way: If Michigan State complains about being thin, they're not likely to get a sympathetic hearing from George Mason. The Patriots have played most of the season without regulars John Vaughan and Jesus Urbina. Then last week starter Tony Skinn was suspended for punching an opponent, um, below the equator, shall we say. (He will play again this year only if GMU wins its first-round game.) This team is dangerously thin.
Etc. There shouldn't be a lot of threes in the first-round game between the Patriots and Michigan State: neither team devotes more than 32 percent of their shots to attempts from beyond the arc....George Mason cracked the top 25 in the polls this year for the first time in the program's history.
(3) North Carolina Tar Heels (22-7, 12-4 ACC)
Feast your eyes: They may be young but this is already a great team, balanced offensively and defensively. (Roy Williams has some horses, granted, but I ask you: can this man not coach?) This offense reminds me a lot of Michigan State last year: they shoot extremely well and, on the rare occasions when they miss, they attack the offensive glass with highly-effective ferocity. Just look at this Tyler Hansbrough character: only a freshman and already putting up Paul Davis-style numbers for scoring efficiently and hitting the offensive boards. Scary. (And check out 5-11 diamond-in-the-rough Wes Miller--a 134.3 offensive rating? I didn't know the numbers went that high. Give him the rock, Roy!) As for the D (and as long as we're invoking the memory of Big Ten teams from last year) the Heels are a lot like Illinois on defense in 2005. No one thing UNC does defensively jumps out at you but they're solid at everything. (OK, a little less solid at creating turnovers.) The result is one of the 20 best defenses in the country.
Look the other way: The Heels turn the ball over a lot. (But, as seen above, they compensate.)
Etc. Reyshawn Terry gives Williams defensive boards and a solid second scorer. But Terry needs to stay out of foul trouble.
(14) Murray State Racers (24-6, 17-3 Ohio Valley)
Feast your eyes: The Racers' FG defense is superb, holding opponents to an effective FG percentage of just 45.1. Pearson Griffith, a 6-10 shot-changer, is the Ohio Valley's answer to Erek Hansen. (And, like Hansen, he needs to avoid foul trouble.) And leading scorer Shawn Witherspoon sports an almost Mike Gansey-like 63.1 2FG percentage.
Look the other way: Murray State's a borderline POT, devoting about 36 percent of their shots to threes--yet they only make 35.7 percent of their shots from out there.
Etc. The Racers have one of the worst offenses in the dance--only Penn, Monmouth, and Southern score less efficiently. ¶ 3:50 AM
Wonk 360: Ohio State in Dayton
A look at the teams competing against Ohio State in Dayton this weekend to make it to Minneapolis and the Sweet 16.
(2) Ohio State Buckeyes (25-5, 12-4 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Behold Terence Dials, Big Ten POY. Over the past decade as the NBA has increasingly and now completely cornered the market on carbon-based life forms who are 6-10 or taller and can walk and chew gum at the same time, we have seen more of Dials' ilk. He is a "dominant" big man (especially on offense) though in fact he is but 6-9. (Back in the day he would have been a solid power forward.) In the Buckeyes' 1-4 offensive sets, Dials is given ample opportunity to convert post feeds into two points. OSU also takes care of the ball (kudos to sophomore point guard Jamar Butler) and plays outstanding perimeter defense.
Look the other way: The Buckeyes are a POT (40 percent of their shots are threes) and consequently they struggle on the offensive boards. Nor do they go to the line a lot: when their shots aren't falling, they don't score, period.
Etc. Key reserve Ron Lewis is a master of getting to the line and made the game-winning shot at Northwestern....Ohio State has struggled mightily to hit their threes of late and no one's struggled more than Je'Kel Foster, currently mired in a 9-of-62 slump that is beginning to feel positively Rick Ankiel-esque.
(15) Davidson Wildcats (20-10, 10-5 Southern Conference)
Feast your eyes: There will be a lot of threes flung through the air when the Wildcats take on Ohio State--both teams devote large portions of their shots to attempts from beyond the arc. And Davidson sports an impressive ratio of assists to FGs. In fact point guard Kenny Grant is at this writing the top assist man in the nation in tempo-free terms. And with numerous starters sporting healthy offensive ratings, Davidson looks a little like Gonzaga-lite (though with a different style, of course--much heavier on the threes). Lastly, if the Wildcats can somehow embroil Ohio State in a close game, Davidson will have one factor in their favor: at 77 percent, they're one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country.
Look the other way: Davidson has the worst defense of any team still in the tournament. I say "still" because Belmont's actually ranked even lower (for reasons on vivid display Tuesday night).
Etc. Leading scorer Brendan Winters, a 6-5 wing, is comfortable launching shots from outside or in close and hits 84 percent when he goes to the line.
(7) Georgetown Hoyas (21-9, 10-6 Big East)
Feast your eyes: They may be slow (a hair under 60 possessions per 40 minutes) but don't be fooled--this is a highly efficient offense. (By the way, ESPN.com was apparently fooled: "The Hoyas aren't going to blow teams out." True but a little misleading. "Georgetown wins its games at the defensive end of the court." False. I am an inveterate optimist, however, and honestly believe this may well be the last season that a national content provider such as the WWLIS makes such glaring tempo-deaf gaffes.) Georgetown shoots the rock very well (if you take out their two leading scorers, Jeff Green and Brandon Bowman, the Hoyas shoot extremely well) and they take good care of the ball. On D Georgetown menaces opponents with 7-2 shot-blocker Roy Hibbert. He's no Erek Hansen or Pearson Griffith, mind you. But he'll change a shot or two.
Look the other way: While the Hoyas' D is solid overall, opponents shoot slightly above-average on their threes.
Etc. Georgetown plays a variant of the Princeton offense that they choose to call (can you guess?) the Georgetown system. But if this is a Princeton or even a Georgetown system, how come the Hoyas' numbers on the offensive glass are so, well, normal? In fact if one classifies the Hoyas as a POT (it's close), then this is one of the best offensive rebounding POTs I've seen. Though they devote more than 37 percent of their shots to threes, Georgetown's still able to rebound over 35 percent of their misses, thanks in no small part to Hibbert's work on the offensive glass.
(10) Northern Iowa Panthers (23-9, 11-7 Missouri Valley)
Feast your eyes: These guys are absolute animals on the defensive glass--fifth-best in the nation. Where some teams don't have any players with a defensive rebound percentage north of 20, the Panthers have two: Grant Stout (23.9) and Eric Coleman (20.2). UNI also plays very good FG defense. The strength of this team is its D.
Look the other way: Keep in mind this is by design (kind of like West Virginia with the same stat): the Panthers rank 304th in the nation in offensive rebounding. They would rather deny opponents any possible transition opportunities than try to get an offensive board. Which is fine--but when the first shot doesn't fall there won't be a second for UNI.
Etc. The numbers suggest coach Greg McDermott might want to take some shots away from leading scorer Ben Jacobson and give them instead to the highly efficient Stout and the pretty efficient John Little. ¶ 3:40 AM
A look at the teams competing against Ohio State in Dayton this weekend to make it to Minneapolis and the Sweet 16.
(2) Ohio State Buckeyes (25-5, 12-4 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Behold Terence Dials, Big Ten POY. Over the past decade as the NBA has increasingly and now completely cornered the market on carbon-based life forms who are 6-10 or taller and can walk and chew gum at the same time, we have seen more of Dials' ilk. He is a "dominant" big man (especially on offense) though in fact he is but 6-9. (Back in the day he would have been a solid power forward.) In the Buckeyes' 1-4 offensive sets, Dials is given ample opportunity to convert post feeds into two points. OSU also takes care of the ball (kudos to sophomore point guard Jamar Butler) and plays outstanding perimeter defense.
Look the other way: The Buckeyes are a POT (40 percent of their shots are threes) and consequently they struggle on the offensive boards. Nor do they go to the line a lot: when their shots aren't falling, they don't score, period.
Etc. Key reserve Ron Lewis is a master of getting to the line and made the game-winning shot at Northwestern....Ohio State has struggled mightily to hit their threes of late and no one's struggled more than Je'Kel Foster, currently mired in a 9-of-62 slump that is beginning to feel positively Rick Ankiel-esque.
(15) Davidson Wildcats (20-10, 10-5 Southern Conference)
Feast your eyes: There will be a lot of threes flung through the air when the Wildcats take on Ohio State--both teams devote large portions of their shots to attempts from beyond the arc. And Davidson sports an impressive ratio of assists to FGs. In fact point guard Kenny Grant is at this writing the top assist man in the nation in tempo-free terms. And with numerous starters sporting healthy offensive ratings, Davidson looks a little like Gonzaga-lite (though with a different style, of course--much heavier on the threes). Lastly, if the Wildcats can somehow embroil Ohio State in a close game, Davidson will have one factor in their favor: at 77 percent, they're one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the country.
Look the other way: Davidson has the worst defense of any team still in the tournament. I say "still" because Belmont's actually ranked even lower (for reasons on vivid display Tuesday night).
Etc. Leading scorer Brendan Winters, a 6-5 wing, is comfortable launching shots from outside or in close and hits 84 percent when he goes to the line.
(7) Georgetown Hoyas (21-9, 10-6 Big East)
Feast your eyes: They may be slow (a hair under 60 possessions per 40 minutes) but don't be fooled--this is a highly efficient offense. (By the way, ESPN.com was apparently fooled: "The Hoyas aren't going to blow teams out." True but a little misleading. "Georgetown wins its games at the defensive end of the court." False. I am an inveterate optimist, however, and honestly believe this may well be the last season that a national content provider such as the WWLIS makes such glaring tempo-deaf gaffes.) Georgetown shoots the rock very well (if you take out their two leading scorers, Jeff Green and Brandon Bowman, the Hoyas shoot extremely well) and they take good care of the ball. On D Georgetown menaces opponents with 7-2 shot-blocker Roy Hibbert. He's no Erek Hansen or Pearson Griffith, mind you. But he'll change a shot or two.
Look the other way: While the Hoyas' D is solid overall, opponents shoot slightly above-average on their threes.
Etc. Georgetown plays a variant of the Princeton offense that they choose to call (can you guess?) the Georgetown system. But if this is a Princeton or even a Georgetown system, how come the Hoyas' numbers on the offensive glass are so, well, normal? In fact if one classifies the Hoyas as a POT (it's close), then this is one of the best offensive rebounding POTs I've seen. Though they devote more than 37 percent of their shots to threes, Georgetown's still able to rebound over 35 percent of their misses, thanks in no small part to Hibbert's work on the offensive glass.
(10) Northern Iowa Panthers (23-9, 11-7 Missouri Valley)
Feast your eyes: These guys are absolute animals on the defensive glass--fifth-best in the nation. Where some teams don't have any players with a defensive rebound percentage north of 20, the Panthers have two: Grant Stout (23.9) and Eric Coleman (20.2). UNI also plays very good FG defense. The strength of this team is its D.
Look the other way: Keep in mind this is by design (kind of like West Virginia with the same stat): the Panthers rank 304th in the nation in offensive rebounding. They would rather deny opponents any possible transition opportunities than try to get an offensive board. Which is fine--but when the first shot doesn't fall there won't be a second for UNI.
Etc. The numbers suggest coach Greg McDermott might want to take some shots away from leading scorer Ben Jacobson and give them instead to the highly efficient Stout and the pretty efficient John Little. ¶ 3:40 AM
Wonk 360: Wisconsin in Philly
A look at the teams competing against Wisconsin in Philadelphia this weekend to make it to Minneapolis and the Sweet 16.
(9) Wisconsin Badgers (19-11, 9-7 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: The Badgers' luck on offense may wax and wane but they play consistently tough defense. And, like most Bo Ryan teams (but perhaps somewhat surprising for a group this long), UW is borderline-fanatical about taking care of the ball. If the pre-2006 playoffs Pittsburgh Steelers were a college basketball team, they'd be Wisconsin: ball control and tough D.
Look the other way: Wisconsin struggles to score. Alando Tucker has the heart of a gladiator but he is just one player--and a not very good shooting one at that. Opposing defenses have quite sensibly formed a cordon sanitaire around Tucker and ignored the rest of the Badgers almost entirely. UW has yet to prove it can counter that. The vaunted spacing of Ryan's famous swing offense is much less spacious when there's no outside threat.
Etc. Lest anyone doubt Ryan's coaching ability or his players' will and determination, consider the following two numbers: 201 and 46. Wisconsin ranks 201st out of 334 Division I teams in effective FG percentage--these guys can't put the ball in the basket if they're given a ladder and an empty court. Yet the Badgers still have the number 46-ranked offense in the country, thanks to their lack of turnovers, their offensive rebounding, and their trips to the line.
(8) Arizona Wildcats (19-12, 11-7 Pac-10)
Feast your eyes: The Wildcats force opponents to commit turnovers in abundance. In tempo-free terms, Chris Rodgers and Hassan Adams both rank among the top 20 players nationally in steals. And Arizona needs those steals, because....
Look the other way: This team's FG defense and defensive rebounding are both horrific. And remember what I said about Wisconsin not being able to shoot (above)? Arizona's even worse--240th nationally in effective FG percentage. There could be a lot of rebounds in the game between the Badgers and the Wildcats. (Get ready for the announcers to rave about the superhuman effort displayed by some lucky big man who hauls in 15 or so boards.)
Etc. Arizona's three-point shooting is woeful and thus the 'Cats (rightly) devote only 21.9 percent of their shots to attempts from beyond the arc. Only one team in the country shoots fewer threes: Maryland.
(1) Villanova Wildcats (25-4, 14-2 Big East)
Feast your eyes: Where to begin? This offense is poetry in motion. While the Wildcats' shooting appears at first glance to be surprisingly average (see below), they take better care of the ball than even Wisconsin and they do a fair job of crashing the offensive glass. Like Ohio State, 40 percent of 'Nova's shots are threes--but the Wildcats make more of them. This team looks a little like Illinois in 2005: Randy Foye, Allan Ray, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Nardi are all efficient with the ball. And on defense Villanova is solid but not spectacular across the board--which means this is one of the 20 best defenses in the nation. Limit your turnovers and play good D. That will win games. It has won games for Jay Wright and 'Nova.
Look the other way: Villanova's 2FG percentage is horrible: just 45.2 percent. Remember the defense that Ohio State played against Illinois in Columbus last year? Sort of a counterintuitive but highly effective clog-the-arc kind of thing? That could be what's needed defensively against Villanova.
Etc. The Wildcats don't extract a lot of turnovers from their opponents--with the exception of the admirably felonious Lowry. Opposing guards with the ball will want to locate him at all times.
(16) Monmouth Hawks (19-14, 12-6 NEC)
Feast your eyes: The Hawks play good FG defense. And point guard Tyler Azzarelli is adept at creating turnovers and headaches for the opponent.
Look the other way: Monmouth's offense isn't very good.
Etc. Hawk reserve John Bunch, listed (no doubt correctly) at 7-2 and (possibly with more tact than accuracy) 320, is probably the largest human in the tournament. (Larger than Errek Suhr and Tanner Bronson combined!) Had he played enough minutes he would rank above even Erek Hansen in blocks nationally. ¶ 3:30 AM
A look at the teams competing against Wisconsin in Philadelphia this weekend to make it to Minneapolis and the Sweet 16.
(9) Wisconsin Badgers (19-11, 9-7 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: The Badgers' luck on offense may wax and wane but they play consistently tough defense. And, like most Bo Ryan teams (but perhaps somewhat surprising for a group this long), UW is borderline-fanatical about taking care of the ball. If the pre-2006 playoffs Pittsburgh Steelers were a college basketball team, they'd be Wisconsin: ball control and tough D.
Look the other way: Wisconsin struggles to score. Alando Tucker has the heart of a gladiator but he is just one player--and a not very good shooting one at that. Opposing defenses have quite sensibly formed a cordon sanitaire around Tucker and ignored the rest of the Badgers almost entirely. UW has yet to prove it can counter that. The vaunted spacing of Ryan's famous swing offense is much less spacious when there's no outside threat.
Etc. Lest anyone doubt Ryan's coaching ability or his players' will and determination, consider the following two numbers: 201 and 46. Wisconsin ranks 201st out of 334 Division I teams in effective FG percentage--these guys can't put the ball in the basket if they're given a ladder and an empty court. Yet the Badgers still have the number 46-ranked offense in the country, thanks to their lack of turnovers, their offensive rebounding, and their trips to the line.
(8) Arizona Wildcats (19-12, 11-7 Pac-10)
Feast your eyes: The Wildcats force opponents to commit turnovers in abundance. In tempo-free terms, Chris Rodgers and Hassan Adams both rank among the top 20 players nationally in steals. And Arizona needs those steals, because....
Look the other way: This team's FG defense and defensive rebounding are both horrific. And remember what I said about Wisconsin not being able to shoot (above)? Arizona's even worse--240th nationally in effective FG percentage. There could be a lot of rebounds in the game between the Badgers and the Wildcats. (Get ready for the announcers to rave about the superhuman effort displayed by some lucky big man who hauls in 15 or so boards.)
Etc. Arizona's three-point shooting is woeful and thus the 'Cats (rightly) devote only 21.9 percent of their shots to attempts from beyond the arc. Only one team in the country shoots fewer threes: Maryland.
(1) Villanova Wildcats (25-4, 14-2 Big East)
Feast your eyes: Where to begin? This offense is poetry in motion. While the Wildcats' shooting appears at first glance to be surprisingly average (see below), they take better care of the ball than even Wisconsin and they do a fair job of crashing the offensive glass. Like Ohio State, 40 percent of 'Nova's shots are threes--but the Wildcats make more of them. This team looks a little like Illinois in 2005: Randy Foye, Allan Ray, Kyle Lowry, and Mike Nardi are all efficient with the ball. And on defense Villanova is solid but not spectacular across the board--which means this is one of the 20 best defenses in the nation. Limit your turnovers and play good D. That will win games. It has won games for Jay Wright and 'Nova.
Look the other way: Villanova's 2FG percentage is horrible: just 45.2 percent. Remember the defense that Ohio State played against Illinois in Columbus last year? Sort of a counterintuitive but highly effective clog-the-arc kind of thing? That could be what's needed defensively against Villanova.
Etc. The Wildcats don't extract a lot of turnovers from their opponents--with the exception of the admirably felonious Lowry. Opposing guards with the ball will want to locate him at all times.
(16) Monmouth Hawks (19-14, 12-6 NEC)
Feast your eyes: The Hawks play good FG defense. And point guard Tyler Azzarelli is adept at creating turnovers and headaches for the opponent.
Look the other way: Monmouth's offense isn't very good.
Etc. Hawk reserve John Bunch, listed (no doubt correctly) at 7-2 and (possibly with more tact than accuracy) 320, is probably the largest human in the tournament. (Larger than Errek Suhr and Tanner Bronson combined!) Had he played enough minutes he would rank above even Erek Hansen in blocks nationally. ¶ 3:30 AM
Wednesday, March 15, 2006
The Big Ten, 2006 vs. 2005:
More good teams; fewer (as in zero) scary ones
A lot of my email this week has gone more or less like this:
Hi, Wonk,
Can you give us a brief guide to tempo-free stats, for those of us who would like to use them to help fill out our brackets? My main question involves whether Ken Pomeroy's stats are adjusted for strength of schedule. By all accounts this year the Big Ten had a stellar non-conference season, and looked like the strongest conference in the land (with the possible exception of the Big East). However, if you look at Pomeroy's Pythagorean Ratings Index, and his blog today which posts the Log5 winning probabilities for all the teams in the tournament, it looks like the Big Ten is bound for an ugly end to the season, whereas the chances for the supposedly inferior Big 12 look relatively good, with Kansas and Texas both favored to make it to the Final Four.
I'm just looking for some hope that my favorite conference will acquit itself well in the upcoming tourney.
Thanks,
Mark J.
Yes, Ken adjusts for strength of schedule; so, yes, Texas and Kansas look better on paper than do Ohio State, Iowa, or Illinois. The Horns and the Jayhawks score more points while holding their opponents to fewer points than do the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, or Illini.
Let's look at the Big Ten last year vs. this year. Here are the top ten teams in terms of efficiency margin over the past two seasons (conference games only, with this year's teams in bold):
Best Big Ten efficiency margins in 2005 or 2006 (points per possession minus opponent PPP)
1. Illinois, 2005 (+0.24)
2. Michigan State, 2005 (+0.18)
3. Ohio State, 2006 (+0.14)
4. Illinois, 2006 (+0.10)
5. Wisconsin, 2005 (+0.06)
6. Iowa, 2006 (+0.06)
7. Wisconsin, 2006 (+0.05)
8. Michigan State, 2006 (+0.03)
9. Ohio State, 2005 (+0.03)
10. Indiana, 2005 (+0.03)
(Note that the Indiana team that didn't make the tournament last year actually had a better efficiency margin than this year's tourney-bound squad, which has a negative EM: -0.03.)
So while the Big Ten can be said to have had a better year this year than last (best conference RPI and six teams in the tournament), it's also true that no Big Ten team this year appears to be the equal of Michigan State last year--much less Illinois last year. (I am still amazed at the grief last year's Spartans took right up until late March--a team, after all, that went 13-3 in the conference.)
Now, might last year's numbers for the best teams have been inflated a smidge by last year's weaker Big Ten opponents? Of course. Still, the fact remains that the conference's top teams this year look decidedly more mortal on paper than they did last year.
The good news for Big Ten fans, of course, is that the numbers can, on occasion, be surprised and circumvented. That's why we watch. Look at Iowa. On paper they had only a 16 percent chance of winning the Big Ten tournament. And they did it.
So stay tuned.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The patented Wonk 360 technology has gone to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break those four teams down! Mosey on over to the sidebar and enjoy.
BONUS Wonk 360 preamble! It should go without saying in March 2006 that any attempt made by a Big Ten fan to summarize Utah State or San Diego State profitably on the spur of the moment of course leans heavily on the indispensable player-by-player tempo-free stats provided by Ken Pomeroy. I'm still a little astonished that the best college basketball stats available anywhere for fee or for free are furnished by a guy with a day job. And maybe I'm even more astonished that we all walk around acting like this is normal. Well, it's not. It's (Bill) Jamesian and I again salute this diligent and didactic data dude. (So does Luke Winn at SI.com.)
That beloved sextet of Big Ten tourney teams!
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says forget about Dee Brown and James Augustine. The coach thinks the Illini will rise or fall with Brian Randle and Rich McBride: "That's going to be a key for us...how those two guys play." Oh yeah? Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey, iconoclastically enough, says forget about what Weber says: if the Illini are going to go anywhere Brown needs to warm up from outside. (Salute to Brown here.) Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says Illinois' top three concerns are: 1) sluggish offense; 2) poor free-throw shooting; and 3) foul trouble.
Indiana coach-for-now Mike Davis says he for one isn't worried about frequent huffer-and-puffer Marco Killingsworth playing at 4,300 feet in Salt Lake City: "My feeling with the altitude is that if you don't focus on it, the players don't think about it. Then, you just go out and play."
Ohio State coach Thad Matta says he'll feel better when his team starts making some threes again: "Hopefully we can get back to shooting the ball well. We’re obviously a better basketball team when we do." The Buckeyes shot 24.7 percent from beyond the arc in three games at the Big Ten tournament in Indy.
Iowa coach Steve Alford says he's not worried that Yoni Cohen and others have picked his team to lose its first-round game against Northwestern St.: "With the way our guys have been, their motivation has been with their passion to play." Player-by-player breakdown of how the Hawkeyes made it this far here. Salute to Doug Thomas here.
Wisconsin senior Ray Nixon did not practice with the team yesterday, after injuring his ankle Monday. His status for Friday's game against Arizona is in doubt. Kammron Taylor's been getting advice from Magic Johnson. Profile of Kevin Gullikson here. The Badgers are preparing to take on a Wildcat team that figures to be rejuvenated by the return of Hassan Adams from a DUI suspension.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo describes George Mason's defense as "a poor man's Illinois."
Wow, the cliche about sportswriters being frustrated novelists is true!
What is it about Paul Davis that makes writers go all Theodore Dreiser with the indulgently oleaginous bleating? Remember this from last year?
Spend a little time with Paul Davis, the Spartans' 6-foot-11 junior center, the jewel of his recruiting class, the NBA hopeful, the likely lynchpin of Michigan State's chances against North Carolina at the Final Four, and you realize that look on his face, the furrowed brow, the down-turned mouth, the reddened cheeks, the burning eyes, is not a look of anger, bitterness or ego.
I have that paragraph on a t-shirt I wear when I want to scare high school English teachers. Anyway, now comes this:
The scars on Paul Davis' head and face resemble a road map charting the path through four years of possibility and persistence.
Good grief. The labored imagery in your saccharine syntax charts a path to my nausea. (Who's he writing about, anyway? Raymond Massey in Arsenic and Old Lace? (Hat-tip for the link to alert reader David T.))
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
In defense of the program--and the team
Yesterday I noted that Michigan athletic director Bill Martin has framed his strong support of Tommy Amaker in terms of his own injunction to Amaker to "build a program, not a team." The readers respond!
Wonk,
Love your blog, I read it daily. As a Michigan man I'm terribly disappointed with this year's finish. I happen to like Amaker but I can't argue with the results. And yet I want him to win so that we don't have to start over.
In his defense, how much blame should be placed on a coaching staff? I doubt Amaker huddles the team up to explain how to turn the ball over (although they appeared to be very good at it). Other common complaints I hear are:
1) "He hasn't recruited the way he was expected to." But hasn't he recruited a team that for much of the season appeared to be good enough to make the NCAAs? The team split with last year's NCAA runner up and split with a Final Four team.
2) "He lacks intensity on the sideline or doesn't get on the refs enough." I ask you, Wonk, is there anything more annoying than a young coach with a modest record hopping up and down and making a scene?
3) "His players haven't developed." I see both sides of the argument on this one. Courtney Sims seems like the number one offender in this area. I remember watching Chris Young my freshman year. He was hardly a force inside, but was aggressive. I'll cite my own athletic career as evidence that you can't always coach attitude. I can't help but think of how much better UM would be with a big man that had an attitude to match his size.
Nick R.
Hey, no argument here on point 2, Nick. Dean Smith was legendary for swaying the calls and he did it without wailing like a banshee. (Not to mention a certain former UCLA coach.) ¶ 6:16 AM
More good teams; fewer (as in zero) scary ones
A lot of my email this week has gone more or less like this:
Hi, Wonk,
Can you give us a brief guide to tempo-free stats, for those of us who would like to use them to help fill out our brackets? My main question involves whether Ken Pomeroy's stats are adjusted for strength of schedule. By all accounts this year the Big Ten had a stellar non-conference season, and looked like the strongest conference in the land (with the possible exception of the Big East). However, if you look at Pomeroy's Pythagorean Ratings Index, and his blog today which posts the Log5 winning probabilities for all the teams in the tournament, it looks like the Big Ten is bound for an ugly end to the season, whereas the chances for the supposedly inferior Big 12 look relatively good, with Kansas and Texas both favored to make it to the Final Four.
I'm just looking for some hope that my favorite conference will acquit itself well in the upcoming tourney.
Thanks,
Mark J.
Yes, Ken adjusts for strength of schedule; so, yes, Texas and Kansas look better on paper than do Ohio State, Iowa, or Illinois. The Horns and the Jayhawks score more points while holding their opponents to fewer points than do the Buckeyes, Hawkeyes, or Illini.
Let's look at the Big Ten last year vs. this year. Here are the top ten teams in terms of efficiency margin over the past two seasons (conference games only, with this year's teams in bold):
Best Big Ten efficiency margins in 2005 or 2006 (points per possession minus opponent PPP)
1. Illinois, 2005 (+0.24)
2. Michigan State, 2005 (+0.18)
3. Ohio State, 2006 (+0.14)
4. Illinois, 2006 (+0.10)
5. Wisconsin, 2005 (+0.06)
6. Iowa, 2006 (+0.06)
7. Wisconsin, 2006 (+0.05)
8. Michigan State, 2006 (+0.03)
9. Ohio State, 2005 (+0.03)
10. Indiana, 2005 (+0.03)
(Note that the Indiana team that didn't make the tournament last year actually had a better efficiency margin than this year's tourney-bound squad, which has a negative EM: -0.03.)
So while the Big Ten can be said to have had a better year this year than last (best conference RPI and six teams in the tournament), it's also true that no Big Ten team this year appears to be the equal of Michigan State last year--much less Illinois last year. (I am still amazed at the grief last year's Spartans took right up until late March--a team, after all, that went 13-3 in the conference.)
Now, might last year's numbers for the best teams have been inflated a smidge by last year's weaker Big Ten opponents? Of course. Still, the fact remains that the conference's top teams this year look decidedly more mortal on paper than they did last year.
The good news for Big Ten fans, of course, is that the numbers can, on occasion, be surprised and circumvented. That's why we watch. Look at Iowa. On paper they had only a 16 percent chance of winning the Big Ten tournament. And they did it.
So stay tuned.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The patented Wonk 360 technology has gone to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break those four teams down! Mosey on over to the sidebar and enjoy.
BONUS Wonk 360 preamble! It should go without saying in March 2006 that any attempt made by a Big Ten fan to summarize Utah State or San Diego State profitably on the spur of the moment of course leans heavily on the indispensable player-by-player tempo-free stats provided by Ken Pomeroy. I'm still a little astonished that the best college basketball stats available anywhere for fee or for free are furnished by a guy with a day job. And maybe I'm even more astonished that we all walk around acting like this is normal. Well, it's not. It's (Bill) Jamesian and I again salute this diligent and didactic data dude. (So does Luke Winn at SI.com.)
That beloved sextet of Big Ten tourney teams!
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says forget about Dee Brown and James Augustine. The coach thinks the Illini will rise or fall with Brian Randle and Rich McBride: "That's going to be a key for us...how those two guys play." Oh yeah? Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey, iconoclastically enough, says forget about what Weber says: if the Illini are going to go anywhere Brown needs to warm up from outside. (Salute to Brown here.) Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says Illinois' top three concerns are: 1) sluggish offense; 2) poor free-throw shooting; and 3) foul trouble.
Indiana coach-for-now Mike Davis says he for one isn't worried about frequent huffer-and-puffer Marco Killingsworth playing at 4,300 feet in Salt Lake City: "My feeling with the altitude is that if you don't focus on it, the players don't think about it. Then, you just go out and play."
Ohio State coach Thad Matta says he'll feel better when his team starts making some threes again: "Hopefully we can get back to shooting the ball well. We’re obviously a better basketball team when we do." The Buckeyes shot 24.7 percent from beyond the arc in three games at the Big Ten tournament in Indy.
Iowa coach Steve Alford says he's not worried that Yoni Cohen and others have picked his team to lose its first-round game against Northwestern St.: "With the way our guys have been, their motivation has been with their passion to play." Player-by-player breakdown of how the Hawkeyes made it this far here. Salute to Doug Thomas here.
Wisconsin senior Ray Nixon did not practice with the team yesterday, after injuring his ankle Monday. His status for Friday's game against Arizona is in doubt. Kammron Taylor's been getting advice from Magic Johnson. Profile of Kevin Gullikson here. The Badgers are preparing to take on a Wildcat team that figures to be rejuvenated by the return of Hassan Adams from a DUI suspension.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo describes George Mason's defense as "a poor man's Illinois."
Wow, the cliche about sportswriters being frustrated novelists is true!
What is it about Paul Davis that makes writers go all Theodore Dreiser with the indulgently oleaginous bleating? Remember this from last year?
Spend a little time with Paul Davis, the Spartans' 6-foot-11 junior center, the jewel of his recruiting class, the NBA hopeful, the likely lynchpin of Michigan State's chances against North Carolina at the Final Four, and you realize that look on his face, the furrowed brow, the down-turned mouth, the reddened cheeks, the burning eyes, is not a look of anger, bitterness or ego.
I have that paragraph on a t-shirt I wear when I want to scare high school English teachers. Anyway, now comes this:
The scars on Paul Davis' head and face resemble a road map charting the path through four years of possibility and persistence.
Good grief. The labored imagery in your saccharine syntax charts a path to my nausea. (Who's he writing about, anyway? Raymond Massey in Arsenic and Old Lace? (Hat-tip for the link to alert reader David T.))
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
In defense of the program--and the team
Yesterday I noted that Michigan athletic director Bill Martin has framed his strong support of Tommy Amaker in terms of his own injunction to Amaker to "build a program, not a team." The readers respond!
Wonk,
Love your blog, I read it daily. As a Michigan man I'm terribly disappointed with this year's finish. I happen to like Amaker but I can't argue with the results. And yet I want him to win so that we don't have to start over.
In his defense, how much blame should be placed on a coaching staff? I doubt Amaker huddles the team up to explain how to turn the ball over (although they appeared to be very good at it). Other common complaints I hear are:
1) "He hasn't recruited the way he was expected to." But hasn't he recruited a team that for much of the season appeared to be good enough to make the NCAAs? The team split with last year's NCAA runner up and split with a Final Four team.
2) "He lacks intensity on the sideline or doesn't get on the refs enough." I ask you, Wonk, is there anything more annoying than a young coach with a modest record hopping up and down and making a scene?
3) "His players haven't developed." I see both sides of the argument on this one. Courtney Sims seems like the number one offender in this area. I remember watching Chris Young my freshman year. He was hardly a force inside, but was aggressive. I'll cite my own athletic career as evidence that you can't always coach attitude. I can't help but think of how much better UM would be with a big man that had an attitude to match his size.
Nick R.
Hey, no argument here on point 2, Nick. Dean Smith was legendary for swaying the calls and he did it without wailing like a banshee. (Not to mention a certain former UCLA coach.) ¶ 6:16 AM
Wonk 360: Illinois in San Diego
A look at the teams competing against Illinois in San Diego this weekend to make it to Washington, D.C., and the Sweet 16.
(4) Illinois Fighting Illini (25-6, 11-5 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Illinois plays excellent defense--most of the time. The D became a little more porous late in the season: in the second half of their conference schedule the Illini gave up a thoroughly mediocre 1.03 points per possession (after allowing just 0.90 PPP during the first half of the Big Ten season). Still, when they're playing the defense they're capable of playing, Bruce Weber's men are particularly adept at forcing tough shots and at hitting the defensive glass. On offense the Illini take care of the ball and are better than average at rebounding their misses--of which they have more than a few....
Look the other way: This team can go stone cold from outside, usually when Rich McBride and precocious freshman Jamar Smith (with their combined 43.6 3FG pct.) defer more than they should to Dee Brown (32.5 3FG pct.). And their youth (pretty much everyone except Brown and James Augustine) is, in effect, playing in its first NCAA tournament.
Etc. Brian Randle's defense is every bit as good as you've heard--stylistically speaking, someone this long and this quick probably should have been wearing a Kentucky uniform, circa 2003--but he's a walking foul magnet and Illinois fans look like this every time Randle steps to the free throw line. (Truth be told, Illinois fans look like that when any player goes to the line, except McBride.)
(13) Air Force Falcons (24-6, 12-4 Mountain West)
Feast your eyes: (I guess--anyway, it's what they do....) I've been mulling adding a new subcategory to my POT classification: the SPOT, a slow perimeter-oriented team. If I ever do so, Air Force will be my SPOT poster child. Averaging about 57 possessions per 40 minutes, Air Force is the second-slowest-paced team in the nation. (Only Princeton is slower.) You may not care for the aesthetics but there's no arguing with the results: this is one of the best-shooting teams in the country. The Falcons' 57.8 effective FG percentage would not only lead the Big Ten this year, it would even have bested Illinois last year. (And that's saying something.) Their primary outside threat is Matt McCraw, who hits 42 percent from outside the arc. Air Force is most certainly a SPOT.
Look the other way: Like most POTs (and perhaps all SPOTs), the Falcons are weak on the offensive boards. Very weak: if the ball doesn't go in, they're not going to get another shot. (I loved this faux "insider"-sounding drivel on Air Force from ESPN Insider's "tournament guide": "A team that can control the defensive boards and is willing to push the ball in transition can, to some degree, negate the matchup zone." Hmm, let's see. Air Force was 325th in the country this year in offensive rebounding. If you can't "control the defensive boards" against the Falcons, you're in trouble, friend.)
Etc. Air Force looks so much like Northwestern on paper it's eerie. (Wow, Jerry Palm agrees! Albeit, a little more pejoratively: "Air Force is the worst at-large team added to the tournament in its history. They are a shorter, slower Northwestern that shoots a little better.") Both teams devote over 45 percent of their attempts to threes. Both operate at a glacial pace. And both are surprisingly proficient at getting opponents to turn the ball over. Watch Jacob Burtschi: in addition to being Air Force's leading scorer, he also ranks as the most felonious Falcon.
(5) Washington Huskies (24-6, 13-5 Pac-10)
Feast your eyes: Ken Pomeroy said it: Brandon Roy combines offensive efficiency (125.6 offensive rating) and sheer volume (19.6 points per game) on a level that can only be termed Redickulous. (The closest Big Ten analogue, never mind the differing physiques and roles, would be Paul Davis.) Also: the Huskies are uncaged monsters on the offensive glass, rebounding over 42 percent of their own misses. (How good is that? Better (by far) than any Big Ten team this year. Better than any Big Ten team last year--and that's saying something, given how Michigan State hauled in the offensive boards in 2005.) The window-cleaning on the offensive end is led by 6-7 Jon Brockman. Last thing: this team doesn't shoot threes. Don't bother waiting for them to go cold from outside. They can't.
Look the other way: As good as this team looks on paper, they were last seen losing by 11 points to a 15-17 Oregon team in the Pac-10 tournament. And with freshman Justin Dentmon (the pride of Carbondale, Illinois) at the point, there aren't a lot of assists with this group. But, with Roy and the bounteous offensive boards, they don't need as many.
Etc. U-Dub makes opponents turn the ball over--and they do it with a balanced attack. Ryan Appleby notwithstanding, almost every Huskie's a threat to record a steal.
(12) Utah State Aggies (23-8, 11-5 WAC)
Feast your eyes: If the Aggies were in any other bracket besides the same one as Air Force, I could toss around the superlatives a little more freely here. Nevertheless, this team can shoot the rock, hitting over 40 percent of their threes and posting a gaudy 56.0 effective FG percentage. Both numbers put Utah State in the top ten nationally. Jaycee Carroll drains 45.3 percent of his threes. And, though he doesn't shoot threes, 6-7 forward Nate Harris is a notably efficient producer for a leading scorer.
Look the other way: Having lauded the Utah State offense, the following may well strike you as symmetrically predictable: the Aggie defense is nothing to write home about. Opponents never turn the ball over.
Etc. Each member of Utah State's starting five has an effective FG pct. north of 50. Nate Harris's is 63.2--that's positively (Steve) Novakian. ¶ 4:00 AM
A look at the teams competing against Illinois in San Diego this weekend to make it to Washington, D.C., and the Sweet 16.
(4) Illinois Fighting Illini (25-6, 11-5 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Illinois plays excellent defense--most of the time. The D became a little more porous late in the season: in the second half of their conference schedule the Illini gave up a thoroughly mediocre 1.03 points per possession (after allowing just 0.90 PPP during the first half of the Big Ten season). Still, when they're playing the defense they're capable of playing, Bruce Weber's men are particularly adept at forcing tough shots and at hitting the defensive glass. On offense the Illini take care of the ball and are better than average at rebounding their misses--of which they have more than a few....
Look the other way: This team can go stone cold from outside, usually when Rich McBride and precocious freshman Jamar Smith (with their combined 43.6 3FG pct.) defer more than they should to Dee Brown (32.5 3FG pct.). And their youth (pretty much everyone except Brown and James Augustine) is, in effect, playing in its first NCAA tournament.
Etc. Brian Randle's defense is every bit as good as you've heard--stylistically speaking, someone this long and this quick probably should have been wearing a Kentucky uniform, circa 2003--but he's a walking foul magnet and Illinois fans look like this every time Randle steps to the free throw line. (Truth be told, Illinois fans look like that when any player goes to the line, except McBride.)
(13) Air Force Falcons (24-6, 12-4 Mountain West)
Feast your eyes: (I guess--anyway, it's what they do....) I've been mulling adding a new subcategory to my POT classification: the SPOT, a slow perimeter-oriented team. If I ever do so, Air Force will be my SPOT poster child. Averaging about 57 possessions per 40 minutes, Air Force is the second-slowest-paced team in the nation. (Only Princeton is slower.) You may not care for the aesthetics but there's no arguing with the results: this is one of the best-shooting teams in the country. The Falcons' 57.8 effective FG percentage would not only lead the Big Ten this year, it would even have bested Illinois last year. (And that's saying something.) Their primary outside threat is Matt McCraw, who hits 42 percent from outside the arc. Air Force is most certainly a SPOT.
Look the other way: Like most POTs (and perhaps all SPOTs), the Falcons are weak on the offensive boards. Very weak: if the ball doesn't go in, they're not going to get another shot. (I loved this faux "insider"-sounding drivel on Air Force from ESPN Insider's "tournament guide": "A team that can control the defensive boards and is willing to push the ball in transition can, to some degree, negate the matchup zone." Hmm, let's see. Air Force was 325th in the country this year in offensive rebounding. If you can't "control the defensive boards" against the Falcons, you're in trouble, friend.)
Etc. Air Force looks so much like Northwestern on paper it's eerie. (Wow, Jerry Palm agrees! Albeit, a little more pejoratively: "Air Force is the worst at-large team added to the tournament in its history. They are a shorter, slower Northwestern that shoots a little better.") Both teams devote over 45 percent of their attempts to threes. Both operate at a glacial pace. And both are surprisingly proficient at getting opponents to turn the ball over. Watch Jacob Burtschi: in addition to being Air Force's leading scorer, he also ranks as the most felonious Falcon.
(5) Washington Huskies (24-6, 13-5 Pac-10)
Feast your eyes: Ken Pomeroy said it: Brandon Roy combines offensive efficiency (125.6 offensive rating) and sheer volume (19.6 points per game) on a level that can only be termed Redickulous. (The closest Big Ten analogue, never mind the differing physiques and roles, would be Paul Davis.) Also: the Huskies are uncaged monsters on the offensive glass, rebounding over 42 percent of their own misses. (How good is that? Better (by far) than any Big Ten team this year. Better than any Big Ten team last year--and that's saying something, given how Michigan State hauled in the offensive boards in 2005.) The window-cleaning on the offensive end is led by 6-7 Jon Brockman. Last thing: this team doesn't shoot threes. Don't bother waiting for them to go cold from outside. They can't.
Look the other way: As good as this team looks on paper, they were last seen losing by 11 points to a 15-17 Oregon team in the Pac-10 tournament. And with freshman Justin Dentmon (the pride of Carbondale, Illinois) at the point, there aren't a lot of assists with this group. But, with Roy and the bounteous offensive boards, they don't need as many.
Etc. U-Dub makes opponents turn the ball over--and they do it with a balanced attack. Ryan Appleby notwithstanding, almost every Huskie's a threat to record a steal.
(12) Utah State Aggies (23-8, 11-5 WAC)
Feast your eyes: If the Aggies were in any other bracket besides the same one as Air Force, I could toss around the superlatives a little more freely here. Nevertheless, this team can shoot the rock, hitting over 40 percent of their threes and posting a gaudy 56.0 effective FG percentage. Both numbers put Utah State in the top ten nationally. Jaycee Carroll drains 45.3 percent of his threes. And, though he doesn't shoot threes, 6-7 forward Nate Harris is a notably efficient producer for a leading scorer.
Look the other way: Having lauded the Utah State offense, the following may well strike you as symmetrically predictable: the Aggie defense is nothing to write home about. Opponents never turn the ball over.
Etc. Each member of Utah State's starting five has an effective FG pct. north of 50. Nate Harris's is 63.2--that's positively (Steve) Novakian. ¶ 4:00 AM
Wonk 360: Indiana in Salt Lake
A look at the teams competing against Indiana in Salt Lake City this weekend to make it to Oakland and the Sweet 16.
(6) Indiana Hoosiers (18-11, 9-7 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Let's start with something nobody starts with when talking about Indiana--this team plays excellent perimeter defense. They've made opponents turn the ball over--especially in Big Ten play. Speaking of Big Ten play, in conference games IU devoted over 43 percent of its shots to threes. (One thing--and maybe this should go down in the next paragraph: don't be fooled by that gaudy top-30 effective FG percentage on display at Ken Pomeroy's site. In calendar 2005, the Hoosiers had a 63.0 eFG pct. The number for calendar '06 is 49.1. And, of course, IU was last seen recording a 37.3 eFG pct. against Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament, albeit in a gritty effort.)
Look the other way: Regular readers, I know you've heard me say this before. So what? (This doesn't concern you. This is for the benefit of Gonzaga fans tuning in.) Indiana is weak on the offensive glass. Not to mention that, for a team that shoots so many threes, they turn the ball over with surprising regularity. And their interior defense is suspect: Marco Killingsworth is painfully averse to fouls and Robert Vaden is undersized.
Etc. Marshall Strickland scored more efficiently than any other Big Ten starter this season....In conference games, the Hoosiers actually gave up more points than they scored. So they'll be looking to "pull a West Virginia" in the tournament this season. Last year in Big East play, the Mountaineers also allowed more points than they scored--and came within a free throw of the Final Four.
(11) San Diego State Aztecs (24-8, 13-3 Mountain West)
Feast your eyes: SDSU puts a very good offense on the floor, one powered by good shooting (including 39.4 percent on their threes), even better offensive rebounding, and a knack for getting to the line. Forward Marcus Slaughter, a 6-9 junior, personifies those last two traits all by his lonesome: he sports an offensive rebound percentage that even J'son Stamper would envy. And Slaughter is one of the five best players in the nation at getting to the line.
Look the other way: To flip a phrase, the Aztecs taketh offensive boards and they give them away: this team's defensive rebounding is anemic. (SDSU allows opponents to rebound almost 34 percent of their own misses.) And there aren't a lot of assists flying around with this gang.
Etc. About half of leading scorer Brandon Heath's shots are threes--and he's hitting 41.1 percent of said shots.
(3) Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-3, 14-0 West Coast)
Feast your eyes: This team is a monster of offensive efficiency. It's not just Adam Morrison--though, don't get me wrong, he doesn't hurt. To talk geeky talk for a moment, each member of the Zags' big three (Morrison, J.P. Batista, and Derek Ravio) has an offensive rating north of 115--that's up there in Jamar Butler, Jamar Smith, Paul Davis territory. This level of efficiency is based on an offense that's strong across the board. The Zags never ever turn the ball over. Moreover, their shooting is superb and they're even surprisingly good on the offensive glass. Most of all, they get to the line: both Morrison and Batista steer opponents remorselessly into foul trouble. And a final note, for what it's worth: this team never shoots threes. There are only about 15 teams in the country that shoot fewer threes than Gonzaga.
Look the other way: You know what I'm going to say. I know what I'm going to say. We all know what I'm going to say. So suppose I just say it: Gonzaga's defense is mediocre. Opponents are more likely to win the lottery than turn the ball over. The Zags clearly take the attitude that they can outscore you straight up. They've been right 27 of 30 times.
Etc. Gonzaga didn't exactly breeze through the West Coast tournament, did they? Mark Few's team needed overtime to get past San Diego and then beat Loyola Marymount 68-67. This despite the fact that both games were played on the Zags' home floor.
(14) Xavier Musketeers (21-10, 8-8 A-10)
Feast your eyes: The Musketeers play some of the best field goal defense in the country, holding opponents to a 44.7 effective FG percentage.
Look the other way: Xavier's undermanned. Leading scorer (and shot-blocker) Brian Thornton was lost for the year in February with a broken ankle. And starting point guard Dedrick Finn was dismissed from the team three weeks ago for an unspecified violation of team rules.
Etc. Despite the personnel challenges mentioned above, the Musketeers somehow managed to win the A-10 tournament, a run capped off with a one-point victory over St. Joseph's in the title game. ¶ 3:50 AM
A look at the teams competing against Indiana in Salt Lake City this weekend to make it to Oakland and the Sweet 16.
(6) Indiana Hoosiers (18-11, 9-7 Big Ten)
Feast your eyes: Let's start with something nobody starts with when talking about Indiana--this team plays excellent perimeter defense. They've made opponents turn the ball over--especially in Big Ten play. Speaking of Big Ten play, in conference games IU devoted over 43 percent of its shots to threes. (One thing--and maybe this should go down in the next paragraph: don't be fooled by that gaudy top-30 effective FG percentage on display at Ken Pomeroy's site. In calendar 2005, the Hoosiers had a 63.0 eFG pct. The number for calendar '06 is 49.1. And, of course, IU was last seen recording a 37.3 eFG pct. against Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament, albeit in a gritty effort.)
Look the other way: Regular readers, I know you've heard me say this before. So what? (This doesn't concern you. This is for the benefit of Gonzaga fans tuning in.) Indiana is weak on the offensive glass. Not to mention that, for a team that shoots so many threes, they turn the ball over with surprising regularity. And their interior defense is suspect: Marco Killingsworth is painfully averse to fouls and Robert Vaden is undersized.
Etc. Marshall Strickland scored more efficiently than any other Big Ten starter this season....In conference games, the Hoosiers actually gave up more points than they scored. So they'll be looking to "pull a West Virginia" in the tournament this season. Last year in Big East play, the Mountaineers also allowed more points than they scored--and came within a free throw of the Final Four.
(11) San Diego State Aztecs (24-8, 13-3 Mountain West)
Feast your eyes: SDSU puts a very good offense on the floor, one powered by good shooting (including 39.4 percent on their threes), even better offensive rebounding, and a knack for getting to the line. Forward Marcus Slaughter, a 6-9 junior, personifies those last two traits all by his lonesome: he sports an offensive rebound percentage that even J'son Stamper would envy. And Slaughter is one of the five best players in the nation at getting to the line.
Look the other way: To flip a phrase, the Aztecs taketh offensive boards and they give them away: this team's defensive rebounding is anemic. (SDSU allows opponents to rebound almost 34 percent of their own misses.) And there aren't a lot of assists flying around with this gang.
Etc. About half of leading scorer Brandon Heath's shots are threes--and he's hitting 41.1 percent of said shots.
(3) Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-3, 14-0 West Coast)
Feast your eyes: This team is a monster of offensive efficiency. It's not just Adam Morrison--though, don't get me wrong, he doesn't hurt. To talk geeky talk for a moment, each member of the Zags' big three (Morrison, J.P. Batista, and Derek Ravio) has an offensive rating north of 115--that's up there in Jamar Butler, Jamar Smith, Paul Davis territory. This level of efficiency is based on an offense that's strong across the board. The Zags never ever turn the ball over. Moreover, their shooting is superb and they're even surprisingly good on the offensive glass. Most of all, they get to the line: both Morrison and Batista steer opponents remorselessly into foul trouble. And a final note, for what it's worth: this team never shoots threes. There are only about 15 teams in the country that shoot fewer threes than Gonzaga.
Look the other way: You know what I'm going to say. I know what I'm going to say. We all know what I'm going to say. So suppose I just say it: Gonzaga's defense is mediocre. Opponents are more likely to win the lottery than turn the ball over. The Zags clearly take the attitude that they can outscore you straight up. They've been right 27 of 30 times.
Etc. Gonzaga didn't exactly breeze through the West Coast tournament, did they? Mark Few's team needed overtime to get past San Diego and then beat Loyola Marymount 68-67. This despite the fact that both games were played on the Zags' home floor.
(14) Xavier Musketeers (21-10, 8-8 A-10)
Feast your eyes: The Musketeers play some of the best field goal defense in the country, holding opponents to a 44.7 effective FG percentage.
Look the other way: Xavier's undermanned. Leading scorer (and shot-blocker) Brian Thornton was lost for the year in February with a broken ankle. And starting point guard Dedrick Finn was dismissed from the team three weeks ago for an unspecified violation of team rules.
Etc. Despite the personnel challenges mentioned above, the Musketeers somehow managed to win the A-10 tournament, a run capped off with a one-point victory over St. Joseph's in the title game. ¶ 3:50 AM
Tuesday, March 14, 2006
I'll take a program and a team
Yesterday's post was cut short, what with power failures, fabricating pointed sticks, hunting wild dogs for food, etc. The good news is the power's on once again at Wonk World HQ and I now have the leisure to follow up on two direct consequences of yesterday's pandemonium.
Direct consequence 1: Thanks much to the "eleventy gillion" readers who wrote in to remind me that Ohio State is in the Villanova bracket and not in the Memphis bracket. Early editions of this blog went out with some written-in-advance guesswork still in type. Sorry for any confusion: I had no electricity from 4am to 7pm yesterday. I was lucky to post anything.
Direct consequence 2: My musing on Michigan got cut short. The rest of the blogging season will be devoted to unrelenting discussion of the six Big Ten teams that made the tournament. Time now to say one last thing about one of the teams that did not....
Wolverine AD Bill Martin was quoted in the Sunday New York Times as saying he's very pleased with the performance of Tommy Amaker, to wit: "Tommy has done an outstanding job. I told him to build a program, not a team. He's the right fit for the team. We're joined together hip to hip."
When I read that Sunday, I thought: wow, what a refreshing change from the usual AD weaselly corporatese equivocation. ("We continually evaluate our progress and will carry that process forward," blah, blah, blah.) Martin's sound bite is blunt, unequivocal, and forthright. It is also, however, divorced from reality.
If I'm a Michigan fan, my lament isn't only that my team hasn't been to the tournament for eight years and counting. (Though that's the elephant in the room.) No, my beef is precisely with the program that Martin says Amaker is building: my beef is with the way this team doesn't get to the tournament.
For what is this program that's being built in Ann Arbor? They're clean, so far as we know. Good. Now, among clean programs, some are known for playing smart hustling basketball. Some are known for defense. Some are known for playing up-tempo. What is Michigan known for? If I had to answer, from my perch, I would say turnovers.
Yes, Amaker took over a struggling program, one burdened with a seamy past and woeful facilities. But what part of the Wolverines' performance last Thursday on the floor of the Conseco Fieldhouse against Minnesota do you lay at the door of a seamy past or woeful facilities? The 21 Michigan turnovers? The 15 rebounds by an opposing player who's a 6-6 walk-on? The three offensive rebounds recorded by starters?
Martin's right about at least one thing, though. A good program can indeed have a bad team every now and then. Take Illinois. Times have been good lately, sure, but this Illini fan only has to reach back seven years to cite a season when the men in orange finished last in the Big Ten. Yes, they finished last that year--but they played hard. (Purdue this year reminded me of that Illinois team.) I supported them through their frequent losses (much more frequent, of course, than Michigan's this season). And I supported them on their improbable run to the championship game of that year's Big Ten tournament (where they were promptly quashed like a bothersome bug by Final Four-bound Michigan State). That team left a lot to be desired in wins and losses but the program seemed sound in Champaign in 1999.
Is it truly so in Ann Arbor in 2006?
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana guard Roderick Wilmont says the Hoosiers' past struggles in first-round games don't bother him or his mates: "I don't think anyone worries about any of that. All we care about is that we're in the tournament, we got a good seed and now we feel like we have a chance to go out and continue playing the way we have the last few weeks." IU faces San Diego State Thursday and Aztec coach Steve Fisher says his team won't be intimidated: "If we get ready to play, we will have a chance to win Thursday. That makes me feel good." And columnist Nick Canepa of the San Diego Union-Tribune says "Indiana can be had."
Illinois forward Brian Randle says he and his mates were "somewhat upset" with the Illini's 4-seed. Asked if his team drew one of the least formidable at-large opponents in Air Force, Bruce Weber says: "Statistically, they were one of the last teams in. But when you look at their system, and their zone, this is a tough game." Air Force coach Jeff Bzdelik is a University of Illinois-Chicago graduate. The two coaches know each other from way back (the 80s), when Weber was an assistant at Purdue and Bzdelik was an assistant at Northwestern. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says the men in orange are confident they can play well against Air Force's Princeton offense and match-up zone D, having beaten Northwestern (twice) and Georgetown this season.
Former Ohio State assistant and current Mid-American Conference official Rick Boyages says he's pulling for the Buckeyes.
Iowa coach Steve Alford has seen his stock soar after leading his team to a Big Ten tournament championship and a 3-seed. Profile of/salute to Jeff Horner here.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says his team's defense and rebounding are fine--they just need to be more consistent: "We've become a very good defensive team, and our rebounding has also improved. What we haven't become is a very consistent team in all of those areas." The Spartans are usually sound as a pound in the first round and against lower seeds generally--um, except for 2004. Izzo's-time-of-year talk here.
Wisconsin freshman and Stillwater, Minnesota, product Kevin Gullikson turned down scholarship offers from Siena, Holy Cross, Lipscomb, and Albany to walk on in Madison. Profile here.
STARTING tomorrow!
The patented Wonk 360 technology goes to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break those four teams down.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Summer (and early fall) plans for this blogospheric space
John,
Just found your blog this season--let me be the thousandth to thank you for all the good reading and Big Ten updates a Badger fan like myself requires to get through a long work day. I greatly appreciate it and, in your own words, Badger nation salutes you back.
I just have one question as the season powers through March. Do you keep updates on your site regarding recruiting and off-season news? I would hate to think that in the coming months out of pure habit I will turn to your website and see the same headline staring back at me from when the tourney wrapped up. I am a sucker for recruiting news: which coach visited which high profile player, what offers are being made by which universities, verbal commitments, etc.
Yes, I know it would be a lot of work, but I for one would tune in for any insight into the recruiting realm that your site would have to offer. Happy Madness and keep up the good work.
Mark L.
Chicago
Go Badgers!
Thanks, Mark. In answer to your question: no, I have no plans to do off-season posts (other than a wacky surprise once in a blue moon). I like the way the gig is set up now: November 1 through the first week of April feels about right on this end.
The good news for you and any other readers interested in recruiting is that there is of course an unprecedented flood of daily information on this very topic zinging around the web. Pick your favorite five-letter service.
And besides, if this humble little blog has anything going for it, it's that I hope I'm actually adding something to the conversation. But I'd never have that feeling writing about recruiting. The recruiting conversation doesn't need this voice. It's all being said already--much better, more quickly, and more comprehensively than I could say it.
So stop by again in the fall. Meantime, over the summer, I'll try to keep the top of the page fresh with random stuff: pictures of me, lengthy think pieces on the presidential election of 1840, etc. (Watch that traffic soar!)
¶ 6:15 AM
Yesterday's post was cut short, what with power failures, fabricating pointed sticks, hunting wild dogs for food, etc. The good news is the power's on once again at Wonk World HQ and I now have the leisure to follow up on two direct consequences of yesterday's pandemonium.
Direct consequence 1: Thanks much to the "eleventy gillion" readers who wrote in to remind me that Ohio State is in the Villanova bracket and not in the Memphis bracket. Early editions of this blog went out with some written-in-advance guesswork still in type. Sorry for any confusion: I had no electricity from 4am to 7pm yesterday. I was lucky to post anything.
Direct consequence 2: My musing on Michigan got cut short. The rest of the blogging season will be devoted to unrelenting discussion of the six Big Ten teams that made the tournament. Time now to say one last thing about one of the teams that did not....
Wolverine AD Bill Martin was quoted in the Sunday New York Times as saying he's very pleased with the performance of Tommy Amaker, to wit: "Tommy has done an outstanding job. I told him to build a program, not a team. He's the right fit for the team. We're joined together hip to hip."
When I read that Sunday, I thought: wow, what a refreshing change from the usual AD weaselly corporatese equivocation. ("We continually evaluate our progress and will carry that process forward," blah, blah, blah.) Martin's sound bite is blunt, unequivocal, and forthright. It is also, however, divorced from reality.
If I'm a Michigan fan, my lament isn't only that my team hasn't been to the tournament for eight years and counting. (Though that's the elephant in the room.) No, my beef is precisely with the program that Martin says Amaker is building: my beef is with the way this team doesn't get to the tournament.
For what is this program that's being built in Ann Arbor? They're clean, so far as we know. Good. Now, among clean programs, some are known for playing smart hustling basketball. Some are known for defense. Some are known for playing up-tempo. What is Michigan known for? If I had to answer, from my perch, I would say turnovers.
Yes, Amaker took over a struggling program, one burdened with a seamy past and woeful facilities. But what part of the Wolverines' performance last Thursday on the floor of the Conseco Fieldhouse against Minnesota do you lay at the door of a seamy past or woeful facilities? The 21 Michigan turnovers? The 15 rebounds by an opposing player who's a 6-6 walk-on? The three offensive rebounds recorded by starters?
Martin's right about at least one thing, though. A good program can indeed have a bad team every now and then. Take Illinois. Times have been good lately, sure, but this Illini fan only has to reach back seven years to cite a season when the men in orange finished last in the Big Ten. Yes, they finished last that year--but they played hard. (Purdue this year reminded me of that Illinois team.) I supported them through their frequent losses (much more frequent, of course, than Michigan's this season). And I supported them on their improbable run to the championship game of that year's Big Ten tournament (where they were promptly quashed like a bothersome bug by Final Four-bound Michigan State). That team left a lot to be desired in wins and losses but the program seemed sound in Champaign in 1999.
Is it truly so in Ann Arbor in 2006?
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Indiana guard Roderick Wilmont says the Hoosiers' past struggles in first-round games don't bother him or his mates: "I don't think anyone worries about any of that. All we care about is that we're in the tournament, we got a good seed and now we feel like we have a chance to go out and continue playing the way we have the last few weeks." IU faces San Diego State Thursday and Aztec coach Steve Fisher says his team won't be intimidated: "If we get ready to play, we will have a chance to win Thursday. That makes me feel good." And columnist Nick Canepa of the San Diego Union-Tribune says "Indiana can be had."
Illinois forward Brian Randle says he and his mates were "somewhat upset" with the Illini's 4-seed. Asked if his team drew one of the least formidable at-large opponents in Air Force, Bruce Weber says: "Statistically, they were one of the last teams in. But when you look at their system, and their zone, this is a tough game." Air Force coach Jeff Bzdelik is a University of Illinois-Chicago graduate. The two coaches know each other from way back (the 80s), when Weber was an assistant at Purdue and Bzdelik was an assistant at Northwestern. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says the men in orange are confident they can play well against Air Force's Princeton offense and match-up zone D, having beaten Northwestern (twice) and Georgetown this season.
Former Ohio State assistant and current Mid-American Conference official Rick Boyages says he's pulling for the Buckeyes.
Iowa coach Steve Alford has seen his stock soar after leading his team to a Big Ten tournament championship and a 3-seed. Profile of/salute to Jeff Horner here.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says his team's defense and rebounding are fine--they just need to be more consistent: "We've become a very good defensive team, and our rebounding has also improved. What we haven't become is a very consistent team in all of those areas." The Spartans are usually sound as a pound in the first round and against lower seeds generally--um, except for 2004. Izzo's-time-of-year talk here.
Wisconsin freshman and Stillwater, Minnesota, product Kevin Gullikson turned down scholarship offers from Siena, Holy Cross, Lipscomb, and Albany to walk on in Madison. Profile here.
STARTING tomorrow!
The patented Wonk 360 technology goes to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break those four teams down.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Summer (and early fall) plans for this blogospheric space
John,
Just found your blog this season--let me be the thousandth to thank you for all the good reading and Big Ten updates a Badger fan like myself requires to get through a long work day. I greatly appreciate it and, in your own words, Badger nation salutes you back.
I just have one question as the season powers through March. Do you keep updates on your site regarding recruiting and off-season news? I would hate to think that in the coming months out of pure habit I will turn to your website and see the same headline staring back at me from when the tourney wrapped up. I am a sucker for recruiting news: which coach visited which high profile player, what offers are being made by which universities, verbal commitments, etc.
Yes, I know it would be a lot of work, but I for one would tune in for any insight into the recruiting realm that your site would have to offer. Happy Madness and keep up the good work.
Mark L.
Chicago
Go Badgers!
Thanks, Mark. In answer to your question: no, I have no plans to do off-season posts (other than a wacky surprise once in a blue moon). I like the way the gig is set up now: November 1 through the first week of April feels about right on this end.
The good news for you and any other readers interested in recruiting is that there is of course an unprecedented flood of daily information on this very topic zinging around the web. Pick your favorite five-letter service.
And besides, if this humble little blog has anything going for it, it's that I hope I'm actually adding something to the conversation. But I'd never have that feeling writing about recruiting. The recruiting conversation doesn't need this voice. It's all being said already--much better, more quickly, and more comprehensively than I could say it.
So stop by again in the fall. Meantime, over the summer, I'll try to keep the top of the page fresh with random stuff: pictures of me, lengthy think pieces on the presidential election of 1840, etc. (Watch that traffic soar!)
¶ 6:15 AM
Monday, March 13, 2006
Who did Tennessee sleep with?...and other bracket thoughts
Editor's note: the Wonk World HQ in the Twin Cities was hit with a surprisingly stout March snowstorm last night--a storm that is still with us as this is written. One result: my power's out. This post was started before my life became so Lord of the Flies-esque, thank goodness, but it is being wrapped up amid said challenges. Thus today's effort will be a bit shorter than the norm. Make it up to you this week.
Ohio State was slotted exactly as I--and everyone--expected: a 2-seed. And the 6-seed given Michigan State also felt about right.
The seeding of every other Big Ten team, however, frankly surprised me, from a little to a lot....
I was pleasantly surprised with Iowa's 3-seed. Thought they might be more of a 4.
On the other hand, I was quite unprepared for Illinois' 4-seed--in the Connecticut bracket, no less. I thought surely the Illini would rate a 3-seed. But maybe there was a certain rough (very rough) justice here. For years Big Ten fans in general--and Illinois fans, like me, in particular--have wailed and moaned that the selection committee overlooks the many fine performances in the Big Ten tournament. No more: the selection committee most certainly took the conference tournament into account this year. They rewarded Iowa (tournament champion) and punished Illinois (knocked out in the quarterfinals). Moral of the story: win Friday.
Indiana grabbed a surprisingly high seed, a 6--not bad for a team that was being left for dead just three weeks ago. (But then, they won Friday. See how this works?)
And Wisconsin was given a 9-seed. Feels a little low for a team that finished ahead of (6-seed) Michigan State in the conference standings, sure. But there you are. (They lost Friday.)
Oh, and Michigan? Ah, yes. Michigan....
Requiem for a Wolverine
The men of Ann Arbor were left out again this year. The team that hasn't been to a tournament since 1998 will have to wait at least one more year before that drought ends. And that's huge--or at least it looks huge now.
Because this was to be the year. Talent, experience, and depth--it was all there. True, Lester Abram missed the balance of the Big Ten season with an ankle injury. But even minus Abram, is this team truly less loaded than, say, the tournament-bound Wisconsin Badgers?
I'm reminded of something I wrote four months ago, possibly because it's one of the few things that doesn't sound patently absurd four months later. (Even a blind pig finds the occasional truffle.) I was speaking of the Wolverines' injury riddled 2005 and the expectations for a healthier and thus more successful 2006....
Make no mistake: fate gave Michigan a wicked pitch to hit last year. But the Wolverines didn't just swing and miss. They swung, missed, hit the ump with the bat, fell down, clubbed themselves over the head a few times, stumbled back to the wrong dugout, threw up, fell down the steps, hit their head on the bat rack, and fell into a coma.
Which means, even as this blogger expects Tommy Amaker's team to improve markedly this season, there is a lingering potential for unpleasant surprise attached to even a healthy Michigan team.
(Emphasis in the original.)
COMING tomorrow! (assuming there's electricity)
The patented Wonk 360 technology goes to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break the four teams down, starting tomorrow with Salt Lake City (Indiana, San Diego St., Gonzaga, and Xavier) and San Diego (Illinois, Air Force, Washington, and Utah State). Don't fill in those brackets without Wonk 360!
Wednesday!
Breakdowns on Friday's competitors in Philly (Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, and Monmouth or Hampton), Dayton bracket I (Ohio State, Davidson, Georgetown, and Northern Iowa), Dayton bracket II (Michigan State, George Mason, North Carolina, and Murray State), and Auburn Hills (Iowa, Northwestern St., West Virginia, and Southern Illinois).
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa beat Ohio State 67-60 in the championship game of the Big Ten tournament. Despite my dire predictions of a slow game between two tired teams, this contest was actually quite easy on the eyes. A foul-blighted Terence Dials was limited to ten points in 22 minutes. The Buckeyes' shooting woes continued as they made just 6-of-28 threes. And seldom-prominent Alex Thompson came up big for the Hawkeyes with a clutch three-pointer in the final minutes, as the Hawkeyes ended the game on a 10-3 run. Big Ten Tournament champion Iowa Hawkeyes, Wonk salutes you! (Box score.)
BONUS note on Ohio State's shooting! Last week I offered the thought that the Buckeyes had better start hitting their threes or else their bricklaying "will end their season within the next 20 days, even with a favorable seed." That was last week--you can change the "20" to "13" now but everything else still holds. (Ken Pomeroy was even blunter yesterday.) The Big Ten tournament provided a great illustration of this dynamic, as OSU played three progressively more formidable opponents (Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa), shot poorly from the outside against all three (33.3 percent, 18.5 percent, and 21.4 percent), and saw the results regress from a seven-point win, to a one-point win, to a seven-point loss. What we are seeing now is Ohio State minus the three-point shooting. And Ohio State minus three-point shooting is beatable. (Yes, all teams need to make their shots. But not all teams devote 40 percent of their shots to threes. Actually, in Indy, nearly half--49.7 percent--of the Buckeyes' shots were from beyond the arc. They hit just 24.7 percent. And that, in a nutshell, is why they weren't wearing commemorative hats and talking to Billy Packer after the game yesterday.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:16 AM
Editor's note: the Wonk World HQ in the Twin Cities was hit with a surprisingly stout March snowstorm last night--a storm that is still with us as this is written. One result: my power's out. This post was started before my life became so Lord of the Flies-esque, thank goodness, but it is being wrapped up amid said challenges. Thus today's effort will be a bit shorter than the norm. Make it up to you this week.
Ohio State was slotted exactly as I--and everyone--expected: a 2-seed. And the 6-seed given Michigan State also felt about right.
The seeding of every other Big Ten team, however, frankly surprised me, from a little to a lot....
I was pleasantly surprised with Iowa's 3-seed. Thought they might be more of a 4.
On the other hand, I was quite unprepared for Illinois' 4-seed--in the Connecticut bracket, no less. I thought surely the Illini would rate a 3-seed. But maybe there was a certain rough (very rough) justice here. For years Big Ten fans in general--and Illinois fans, like me, in particular--have wailed and moaned that the selection committee overlooks the many fine performances in the Big Ten tournament. No more: the selection committee most certainly took the conference tournament into account this year. They rewarded Iowa (tournament champion) and punished Illinois (knocked out in the quarterfinals). Moral of the story: win Friday.
Indiana grabbed a surprisingly high seed, a 6--not bad for a team that was being left for dead just three weeks ago. (But then, they won Friday. See how this works?)
And Wisconsin was given a 9-seed. Feels a little low for a team that finished ahead of (6-seed) Michigan State in the conference standings, sure. But there you are. (They lost Friday.)
Oh, and Michigan? Ah, yes. Michigan....
Requiem for a Wolverine
The men of Ann Arbor were left out again this year. The team that hasn't been to a tournament since 1998 will have to wait at least one more year before that drought ends. And that's huge--or at least it looks huge now.
Because this was to be the year. Talent, experience, and depth--it was all there. True, Lester Abram missed the balance of the Big Ten season with an ankle injury. But even minus Abram, is this team truly less loaded than, say, the tournament-bound Wisconsin Badgers?
I'm reminded of something I wrote four months ago, possibly because it's one of the few things that doesn't sound patently absurd four months later. (Even a blind pig finds the occasional truffle.) I was speaking of the Wolverines' injury riddled 2005 and the expectations for a healthier and thus more successful 2006....
Make no mistake: fate gave Michigan a wicked pitch to hit last year. But the Wolverines didn't just swing and miss. They swung, missed, hit the ump with the bat, fell down, clubbed themselves over the head a few times, stumbled back to the wrong dugout, threw up, fell down the steps, hit their head on the bat rack, and fell into a coma.
Which means, even as this blogger expects Tommy Amaker's team to improve markedly this season, there is a lingering potential for unpleasant surprise attached to even a healthy Michigan team.
(Emphasis in the original.)
COMING tomorrow! (assuming there's electricity)
The patented Wonk 360 technology goes to work! Each venue hosts, in effect, a couple four-team tournaments. And if there's a Big Ten team involved, Wonk 360 will break the four teams down, starting tomorrow with Salt Lake City (Indiana, San Diego St., Gonzaga, and Xavier) and San Diego (Illinois, Air Force, Washington, and Utah State). Don't fill in those brackets without Wonk 360!
Wednesday!
Breakdowns on Friday's competitors in Philly (Wisconsin, Arizona, Villanova, and Monmouth or Hampton), Dayton bracket I (Ohio State, Davidson, Georgetown, and Northern Iowa), Dayton bracket II (Michigan State, George Mason, North Carolina, and Murray State), and Auburn Hills (Iowa, Northwestern St., West Virginia, and Southern Illinois).
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa beat Ohio State 67-60 in the championship game of the Big Ten tournament. Despite my dire predictions of a slow game between two tired teams, this contest was actually quite easy on the eyes. A foul-blighted Terence Dials was limited to ten points in 22 minutes. The Buckeyes' shooting woes continued as they made just 6-of-28 threes. And seldom-prominent Alex Thompson came up big for the Hawkeyes with a clutch three-pointer in the final minutes, as the Hawkeyes ended the game on a 10-3 run. Big Ten Tournament champion Iowa Hawkeyes, Wonk salutes you! (Box score.)
BONUS note on Ohio State's shooting! Last week I offered the thought that the Buckeyes had better start hitting their threes or else their bricklaying "will end their season within the next 20 days, even with a favorable seed." That was last week--you can change the "20" to "13" now but everything else still holds. (Ken Pomeroy was even blunter yesterday.) The Big Ten tournament provided a great illustration of this dynamic, as OSU played three progressively more formidable opponents (Penn State, Indiana, and Iowa), shot poorly from the outside against all three (33.3 percent, 18.5 percent, and 21.4 percent), and saw the results regress from a seven-point win, to a one-point win, to a seven-point loss. What we are seeing now is Ohio State minus the three-point shooting. And Ohio State minus three-point shooting is beatable. (Yes, all teams need to make their shots. But not all teams devote 40 percent of their shots to threes. Actually, in Indy, nearly half--49.7 percent--of the Buckeyes' shots were from beyond the arc. They hit just 24.7 percent. And that, in a nutshell, is why they weren't wearing commemorative hats and talking to Billy Packer after the game yesterday.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:16 AM
Sunday, March 12, 2006
Why Ohio State can do without offensive boards
Repeatedly during yesterday's Big Ten Tournament semifinal between Ohio State and Indiana, Billy Packer remarked, in a tone suggesting this was something unusual and troubling, that the Buckeyes didn't appear to have any bodies under the basket to rebound their own (frequent) misses.
Packer needs to read up on his Wonk! Savvy Wonk readers are hip to this blog's working assumption: a robust little inverse correlation between three-point attempts and offensive rebounds.
Here's what that correlation looked like last year:
(All stats: conference games only)
3FGA/FGA, 2005 (average: .343)
1. Ohio State (.398)
2. Illinois (.394)
3. Northwestern (.383)
4. Wisconsin (.357)
5. Penn State (.353)
6. Indiana (.352)
7. Michigan (.336)
8. Michigan State (.327)
9. Iowa (.299)
10. Minnesota (.289)
11. Purdue (.289)
Offensive rebound pct., 2005 (average: 33.7)
1. Michigan State (40.5)
2. Iowa (38.0)
3. Purdue (37.6)
4. Minnesota (36.1)
5. Penn State (35.2)
6. Illinois (34.8)
7. Michigan (33.7)
8. Wisconsin (33.1)
9. Indiana (33.0)
10. Ohio State (26.4)
11. Northwestern (22.8)
And here's what it looks like this year:
3FGA/FGA (average: .356)
1. Northwestern (.471)
2. Indiana (.434)
3. Ohio State (.398)
4. Illinois (.365)
5. Michigan (.344)
6. Penn State (.343)
7. Michigan (.339)
8. Iowa (.319)
9. Purdue (.319)
10. Minnesota (.292)
11. Michigan State (.291)
Offensive rebound pct. (average: 31.8)
1. Michigan (36.5)
2. Penn State (34.4)
3. Minnesota (33.8)
4. Illinois (33.5)
5. Michigan State (33.1)
6. Purdue (32.3)
7. Wisconsin (32.2)
8. Indiana (31.4)
9. Iowa (31.1)
10. Ohio State (29.5)
11. Northwestern (22.0)
In short, Ohio State's a POT. (So's Indiana.) Observing that they don't get many offensive boards is a little like observing that J.J. Redick gets a lot of touches. The Buckeyes' style on offense emphasizes spacing and patience in finding either an open shot (on the perimeter) or a mismatch (on Terence Dials).
And it works. This year OSU had the best offense in the Big Ten, despite ranking tenth in offensive rebounding. (Much like last year Illinois had the best offense in the conference, despite ranking sixth in offensive rebounding.)
Low-offensive rebound but high-effectiveness Ohio State Buckeyes, I, for one, salute you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
All is in readiness for today's Big Ten Tournament championship game:
(1) Ohio State vs. (2) Iowa (CBS, 3:30pm ET)
This, of course, is an exhibition game. Neither team will have their legs (this will look a lot like the hideous game yesterday between the Hawkeyes and Michigan State) and neither will have anything to play for. Too bad: ordinarily it would be really interesting to see these two teams play each other on a neutral court. In the post you'd have the Big Ten POY, Terence Dials, against the conference Defensive POY, Erek Hansen. And Iowa's willingness to let their opponents shoot threes would, against OSU, be either brilliant (if the Buckeyes are cold from outside, like yesterday) or suicidal (see Ohio State's games at Michigan and at home against Illinois). Conversely, the Hawkeyes' feed-Greg Brunner offense would seem to be perfectly suited for OSU's perimeter-heavy D. So on another day this would be a great game. Alas, today it will be mere background music for musing on who's getting what seed among teams nationwide.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Iowa beat Michigan State 53-48. Tom Izzo's men looked very much like a team playing their third game in 43 hours and their second in 14. (The Hawkeyes looked almost as bad with much less justification.) If the pitiful appearance of the inert and immobile Spartans doesn't convince the Big Ten to go back to the old semifinal sequence (where the 2-3 game follows the 1-4 game), nothing will....Izzo opened his postgame remarks with this: "Fatigue had nothing to do with the loss. Zero, zero, zero, zero. Don't use it. Don't say it. Don't even ask it." (I love Tom Izzo. Classy prevarication, that.) Paul Davis said early turnovers killed State: "It seems the times we do have (turnovers) are critical and the other team capitalizes on them." Mo Ager said his team didn't execute on offense: "We didn't do a good enough job getting the ball into Paul in the post." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz waxes oddly and unnecessarily despondent this morning, saying MSU squandered an opportunity to improve their seed. Shannon Brown agrees: "It’s a big missed opportunity." (Lighten up, guys! State won two games and beat Illinois. As long as they're slotted a 6-seed or higher by the selection committee, MSU's done its job.)...Jeff Horner says today's game could have an impact on his coach's future career: "I'm sure Indiana's going to want him a lot more if he wins it. I know Iowa will want him a lot more, too." (Horner's incorrect, by the way--Hoosier AD Rick Greenspan doesn't care one whit who wins today's exhibition game, though Billy Packer may insinuate lengthily to the contrary.) (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Indiana 52-51. After Matt Sylvester's bank shot put the Buckeyes ahead by a point with 37 seconds left to play, IU had two chances to win the game in the final seconds. First Marco Killingsworth missed a shot on a nice post move down low. Killingsworth got his own rebound, though, and fed the ball to Roderick Wilmont, who had an open look at a 12-footer with just two seconds left. But Wilmont's shot was short and the Buckeyes escaped. "Sometimes in a situation like that, you'd just rather lose that game by 40 than to lose it by one," Wilmont said after the game. For his part, Thad Matta sounded relieved: "It’s all about surviving and that’s what we got done today." J.J. Sullinger had an outstanding game, leading all scorers with 19 points and hauling down 13 boards. And Terence Dials looked downright tenacious on defense. On the other hand, Je'Kel Foster was Edvard Munch-level horrific, going 0-of-9 on his threes. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:57 AM
Repeatedly during yesterday's Big Ten Tournament semifinal between Ohio State and Indiana, Billy Packer remarked, in a tone suggesting this was something unusual and troubling, that the Buckeyes didn't appear to have any bodies under the basket to rebound their own (frequent) misses.
Packer needs to read up on his Wonk! Savvy Wonk readers are hip to this blog's working assumption: a robust little inverse correlation between three-point attempts and offensive rebounds.
Here's what that correlation looked like last year:
(All stats: conference games only)
3FGA/FGA, 2005 (average: .343)
1. Ohio State (.398)
2. Illinois (.394)
3. Northwestern (.383)
4. Wisconsin (.357)
5. Penn State (.353)
6. Indiana (.352)
7. Michigan (.336)
8. Michigan State (.327)
9. Iowa (.299)
10. Minnesota (.289)
11. Purdue (.289)
Offensive rebound pct., 2005 (average: 33.7)
1. Michigan State (40.5)
2. Iowa (38.0)
3. Purdue (37.6)
4. Minnesota (36.1)
5. Penn State (35.2)
6. Illinois (34.8)
7. Michigan (33.7)
8. Wisconsin (33.1)
9. Indiana (33.0)
10. Ohio State (26.4)
11. Northwestern (22.8)
And here's what it looks like this year:
3FGA/FGA (average: .356)
1. Northwestern (.471)
2. Indiana (.434)
3. Ohio State (.398)
4. Illinois (.365)
5. Michigan (.344)
6. Penn State (.343)
7. Michigan (.339)
8. Iowa (.319)
9. Purdue (.319)
10. Minnesota (.292)
11. Michigan State (.291)
Offensive rebound pct. (average: 31.8)
1. Michigan (36.5)
2. Penn State (34.4)
3. Minnesota (33.8)
4. Illinois (33.5)
5. Michigan State (33.1)
6. Purdue (32.3)
7. Wisconsin (32.2)
8. Indiana (31.4)
9. Iowa (31.1)
10. Ohio State (29.5)
11. Northwestern (22.0)
In short, Ohio State's a POT. (So's Indiana.) Observing that they don't get many offensive boards is a little like observing that J.J. Redick gets a lot of touches. The Buckeyes' style on offense emphasizes spacing and patience in finding either an open shot (on the perimeter) or a mismatch (on Terence Dials).
And it works. This year OSU had the best offense in the Big Ten, despite ranking tenth in offensive rebounding. (Much like last year Illinois had the best offense in the conference, despite ranking sixth in offensive rebounding.)
Low-offensive rebound but high-effectiveness Ohio State Buckeyes, I, for one, salute you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
All is in readiness for today's Big Ten Tournament championship game:
(1) Ohio State vs. (2) Iowa (CBS, 3:30pm ET)
This, of course, is an exhibition game. Neither team will have their legs (this will look a lot like the hideous game yesterday between the Hawkeyes and Michigan State) and neither will have anything to play for. Too bad: ordinarily it would be really interesting to see these two teams play each other on a neutral court. In the post you'd have the Big Ten POY, Terence Dials, against the conference Defensive POY, Erek Hansen. And Iowa's willingness to let their opponents shoot threes would, against OSU, be either brilliant (if the Buckeyes are cold from outside, like yesterday) or suicidal (see Ohio State's games at Michigan and at home against Illinois). Conversely, the Hawkeyes' feed-Greg Brunner offense would seem to be perfectly suited for OSU's perimeter-heavy D. So on another day this would be a great game. Alas, today it will be mere background music for musing on who's getting what seed among teams nationwide.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Iowa beat Michigan State 53-48. Tom Izzo's men looked very much like a team playing their third game in 43 hours and their second in 14. (The Hawkeyes looked almost as bad with much less justification.) If the pitiful appearance of the inert and immobile Spartans doesn't convince the Big Ten to go back to the old semifinal sequence (where the 2-3 game follows the 1-4 game), nothing will....Izzo opened his postgame remarks with this: "Fatigue had nothing to do with the loss. Zero, zero, zero, zero. Don't use it. Don't say it. Don't even ask it." (I love Tom Izzo. Classy prevarication, that.) Paul Davis said early turnovers killed State: "It seems the times we do have (turnovers) are critical and the other team capitalizes on them." Mo Ager said his team didn't execute on offense: "We didn't do a good enough job getting the ball into Paul in the post." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz waxes oddly and unnecessarily despondent this morning, saying MSU squandered an opportunity to improve their seed. Shannon Brown agrees: "It’s a big missed opportunity." (Lighten up, guys! State won two games and beat Illinois. As long as they're slotted a 6-seed or higher by the selection committee, MSU's done its job.)...Jeff Horner says today's game could have an impact on his coach's future career: "I'm sure Indiana's going to want him a lot more if he wins it. I know Iowa will want him a lot more, too." (Horner's incorrect, by the way--Hoosier AD Rick Greenspan doesn't care one whit who wins today's exhibition game, though Billy Packer may insinuate lengthily to the contrary.) (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Indiana 52-51. After Matt Sylvester's bank shot put the Buckeyes ahead by a point with 37 seconds left to play, IU had two chances to win the game in the final seconds. First Marco Killingsworth missed a shot on a nice post move down low. Killingsworth got his own rebound, though, and fed the ball to Roderick Wilmont, who had an open look at a 12-footer with just two seconds left. But Wilmont's shot was short and the Buckeyes escaped. "Sometimes in a situation like that, you'd just rather lose that game by 40 than to lose it by one," Wilmont said after the game. For his part, Thad Matta sounded relieved: "It’s all about surviving and that’s what we got done today." J.J. Sullinger had an outstanding game, leading all scorers with 19 points and hauling down 13 boards. And Terence Dials looked downright tenacious on defense. On the other hand, Je'Kel Foster was Edvard Munch-level horrific, going 0-of-9 on his threes. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:57 AM
Saturday, March 11, 2006
A first
Illinois had never lost a quarterfinal game in the Big Ten Tournament in the history of the event. Until last night. Michigan State's bold flouting of tradition leaves today's semifinals looking like this:
(2) Iowa vs. (6) Michigan State (CBS, 1:40pm ET)
If the Spartans have any legs after a 14-hour turnaround from last night, this could be a fun game to watch. The two teams split their regular season meetings, as each squad defended their home court with relative ease. Seeing how they match up on a neutral court could be interesting. As has been noted here before, the Hawkeyes are more likely to give you a look at a three than a drive into the paint. And they limit you to one shot. For their part, the Spartans don't shoot many threes, nor are they particularly accurate when they do--so something may have to give there. When Iowa has the ball, on the other hand, they of course like to feed it to Greg Brunner in hopes of a basket, a foul, or both. But the big guy appeared hobbled last night with an injured ankle. It didn't matter that he was slowed against Minnesota but it could matter if he's still gimpy today.
(1) Ohio State vs. (5) Indiana (CBS, 4pm)
Both teams play similar offensive styles in the half-court: four well-spaced players out beyond the arc looking to feed the post. Indeed, on paper the Hoosiers match up very well with the Buckeyes--unless Terence Dials goes nuts. Indiana's primary weakness is their interior D and Thad Matta will likely make IU prove they can stop Dials. Another thing to watch: turnovers. Indiana coughs the ball up with surprising frequency for a guard-oriented team, with Marco Killingsworth and Robert Vaden being the primary offenders.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State beat Penn State 63-56. The Buckeyes trailed by 12 with 13 minutes to play before getting hot from outside. ("We only needed one or two to kind of light the fire," said Matt Sylvester afterward.) Ron Lewis led OSU with 17 points, while Terence Dials recorded a 13-10 dub-dub. Jamelle Cornley led all scorers with 18 points and Ben Luber dished nine assists for the Nittany Lions. David Jackson gave credit to Ohio State: "They've played in a lot of big games, and they kept their composure. They knew their shots were gonna fall."...The NCAA announced yesterday that it is placing Ohio State on three years' probation in connection with violations that occurred under former coach Jim O'Brien. The Buckeyes will not, however, be banned from postseason play, nor will they lose any scholarships. O'Brien, on the other hand, was given a five-year "show case" penalty: if he seeks another position with an NCAA member institution in the next five years, he and the school would have to appear before the NCAA infractions committee. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Wisconsin 61-56. After a slow ugly first half (in which neither team recorded a single assist), the Hoosiers got things going after the break. "I think our execution really stepped up in the second half," said Marshall Strickland afterward. Marco Killingsworth recorded a 20-12 dub-dub. Alando Tucker led the Badgers with 20 points. UW hit just 2-of-17 threes ("The Badgers' shooters couldn't hit the side of an Indiana farmhouse despite numerous open looks") but kept this game close with 18 offensive boards. Said Tucker: "As poorly as we shot tonight, we were still in the game. It's all about being able to know how to close out games." (Box score.)
Iowa beat Minnesota 67-57. Jeff Horner was outstanding, leading the Hawkeyes with 26 points, hitting 6-of-9 threes, and dishing six assists. Vincent Grier led all scorers with 29 points on 24 shots but the Gopher D could not get the stops they needed. Adam Boone said: "We didn't play as well as we can defensively. And that's why we're going home." Greg Brunner was slowed by an ankle sprain (he did not record a single rebound for the game) and afterward Steve Alford said it showed, especially in the first half: "It's like any sprained ankle, the hardest thing is to convince yourself you're OK. I thought in the second half he was able to play through it." Brunner says he'll be ready for Michigan State: "I can't wait. I've only got a couple games left in my career." (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Illinois 61-56. In a game that was otherwise evenly played, the Illini missed their free throws (12-of-21) and were unusually charitable with the ball. It cost them the game. (Committing 13 turnovers sounds benign. But in a slow (57-possession) close game, giving the ball away on 23 percent of your possessions when both you and your opponent's opponents average closer to 18 percent is dangerous, as Illinois learned.) Mo Ager and Paul Davis each had 16 points for the Spartans while Goran Suton added ten rebounds. James Augustine had a 16-15 dub-dub for the Illini. Said Tom Izzo: "It felt good because I felt we played pretty good in both Illinois (losses) this season....We weren't the prettiest--Illinois really pressured us and it bothered us some--but the defense we played and the job we did, I can't say enough." (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:38 AM
Illinois had never lost a quarterfinal game in the Big Ten Tournament in the history of the event. Until last night. Michigan State's bold flouting of tradition leaves today's semifinals looking like this:
(2) Iowa vs. (6) Michigan State (CBS, 1:40pm ET)
If the Spartans have any legs after a 14-hour turnaround from last night, this could be a fun game to watch. The two teams split their regular season meetings, as each squad defended their home court with relative ease. Seeing how they match up on a neutral court could be interesting. As has been noted here before, the Hawkeyes are more likely to give you a look at a three than a drive into the paint. And they limit you to one shot. For their part, the Spartans don't shoot many threes, nor are they particularly accurate when they do--so something may have to give there. When Iowa has the ball, on the other hand, they of course like to feed it to Greg Brunner in hopes of a basket, a foul, or both. But the big guy appeared hobbled last night with an injured ankle. It didn't matter that he was slowed against Minnesota but it could matter if he's still gimpy today.
(1) Ohio State vs. (5) Indiana (CBS, 4pm)
Both teams play similar offensive styles in the half-court: four well-spaced players out beyond the arc looking to feed the post. Indeed, on paper the Hoosiers match up very well with the Buckeyes--unless Terence Dials goes nuts. Indiana's primary weakness is their interior D and Thad Matta will likely make IU prove they can stop Dials. Another thing to watch: turnovers. Indiana coughs the ball up with surprising frequency for a guard-oriented team, with Marco Killingsworth and Robert Vaden being the primary offenders.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State beat Penn State 63-56. The Buckeyes trailed by 12 with 13 minutes to play before getting hot from outside. ("We only needed one or two to kind of light the fire," said Matt Sylvester afterward.) Ron Lewis led OSU with 17 points, while Terence Dials recorded a 13-10 dub-dub. Jamelle Cornley led all scorers with 18 points and Ben Luber dished nine assists for the Nittany Lions. David Jackson gave credit to Ohio State: "They've played in a lot of big games, and they kept their composure. They knew their shots were gonna fall."...The NCAA announced yesterday that it is placing Ohio State on three years' probation in connection with violations that occurred under former coach Jim O'Brien. The Buckeyes will not, however, be banned from postseason play, nor will they lose any scholarships. O'Brien, on the other hand, was given a five-year "show case" penalty: if he seeks another position with an NCAA member institution in the next five years, he and the school would have to appear before the NCAA infractions committee. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Wisconsin 61-56. After a slow ugly first half (in which neither team recorded a single assist), the Hoosiers got things going after the break. "I think our execution really stepped up in the second half," said Marshall Strickland afterward. Marco Killingsworth recorded a 20-12 dub-dub. Alando Tucker led the Badgers with 20 points. UW hit just 2-of-17 threes ("The Badgers' shooters couldn't hit the side of an Indiana farmhouse despite numerous open looks") but kept this game close with 18 offensive boards. Said Tucker: "As poorly as we shot tonight, we were still in the game. It's all about being able to know how to close out games." (Box score.)
Iowa beat Minnesota 67-57. Jeff Horner was outstanding, leading the Hawkeyes with 26 points, hitting 6-of-9 threes, and dishing six assists. Vincent Grier led all scorers with 29 points on 24 shots but the Gopher D could not get the stops they needed. Adam Boone said: "We didn't play as well as we can defensively. And that's why we're going home." Greg Brunner was slowed by an ankle sprain (he did not record a single rebound for the game) and afterward Steve Alford said it showed, especially in the first half: "It's like any sprained ankle, the hardest thing is to convince yourself you're OK. I thought in the second half he was able to play through it." Brunner says he'll be ready for Michigan State: "I can't wait. I've only got a couple games left in my career." (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Illinois 61-56. In a game that was otherwise evenly played, the Illini missed their free throws (12-of-21) and were unusually charitable with the ball. It cost them the game. (Committing 13 turnovers sounds benign. But in a slow (57-possession) close game, giving the ball away on 23 percent of your possessions when both you and your opponent's opponents average closer to 18 percent is dangerous, as Illinois learned.) Mo Ager and Paul Davis each had 16 points for the Spartans while Goran Suton added ten rebounds. James Augustine had a 16-15 dub-dub for the Illini. Said Tom Izzo: "It felt good because I felt we played pretty good in both Illinois (losses) this season....We weren't the prettiest--Illinois really pressured us and it bothered us some--but the defense we played and the job we did, I can't say enough." (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:38 AM
Friday, March 10, 2006
According to form...almost
Yesterday's results at the Big Ten Tournament in Indy leave us with the following games for today and tonight:
(1) Ohio State vs. (8) Penn State (ESPN, noon ET)
The undersized Nittany Lions will play zone and, as crazy as that sounds when going against the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten, I think that's the only possible course of action for Ed DeChellis's team. Their chances are better against Je'Kel Foster and Jamar Butler 20 feet out than they are against Terence Dials six feet out. The Buckeyes beat PSU twice this year and the win in Columbus was simply a 104-69 mauling. The game in State College, however, was more interesting. Penn State hung around for a half in that one and limited Dials to eight points. The Nittany Lions' best shot at making today's game respectable is to again limit Dials' touches--but without putting Ohio State on the free throw line 28 times as they did in State College (though some of that was end-of-game fouling).
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Indiana (ESPN, 2:30pm ET)
This could be a game where, at last, Alando Tucker gets some help in the scoring column. The Hoosiers' interior D can charitably be termed diffident--time for the long but strangely laconic Badger front line to rouse themselves and take it strong to the hole. (Besides, IU's perimeter D is surprisingly good for a team whose coach is resigning. Best for UW to try their luck inside.) That being said, the Badgers' own defense hasn't exactly been formidable of late. And Marco Killingsworth (remember him?) had a nice line in Ann Arbor on Saturday--if you take away the six turnovers. In short: this game should see fewer threes than the first game of the day.
(2) Iowa vs. (10) Minnesota (ESPN Plus, 6:40pm ET)
I'm sorry. I can't write about this game. Picturing the Gopher offense (which won a game yesterday scoring all of 0.81 points per possession) going up against the Hawkeye D? Ye gods. (How in the world did Minnesota take Iowa to three OTs in Iowa City? A game the Gophers would have won, by the way, if Jonathan Williams (the pre-Zach Puchtel Zach Puchtel) or Moe Hargrow could have made a free throw.)...True, the match up between the Iowa offense and the Minnesota D doesn't promise to be much more aesthetically pleasing.
(3) Illinois vs. (6) Michigan State (ESPN Plus, 9:10pm ET)
These teams just played six days ago in East Lansing and the Illini won by seven on the strength of their outside shooting. The means were surprising (and maybe the venue was, as well) but the result actually matched the numbers pretty well: both offenses are good but not great. Illinois' defense, on the other hand, is good, while State's is a hair below average. The Spartans can transcend those tendencies tonight with the help of something uncharacteristic: Illini turnovers, say, or Mo Ager flashing back to Maui and catching fire from outside. (Truth be told, neither team may have a lot to play for in this one. The selection committee is unlikely to wax punitive in the event of a close loss by either team. This is a semifinal match up occurring in the quarters--"one of the best conference tournament games in the country," according to Tom Izzo.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Penn State beat Northwestern 60-42 yesterday. The Nittany Lion zone forced NU into shooting 31 threes, only seven of which went in. Evan Seacat took more shots (ten) than Vedran Vukusic (nine), who, by the way, wasn't pleased with his own performance: "I played the worst game of my life at the worst time." Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says: "There was something eerie about this game, in a two-thirds empty stadium while the streets outside were buzzing with the thrill of college basketball nuts in town to see their teams in later games. Northwestern doesn't even seem to be part of this tournament, this league, this sport." The 14-15 'Cats may not get an invite to the NIT, even with the new rules that allow under-.500 exceptions....Geary Claxton led PSU with 17 points. Ed DeChellis was pleased with his team's D: "I thought defensively, we were very, very good this afternoon." Jamelle Cornley says: bring on Ohio State. (Box score.)
Ohio State coach Thad Matta says that no matter what happens over the next 48 hours, "whenever you get back home, it’s like, ‘Boy, I can’t wait until 6 Sunday night.'"...The NCAA will announce its decision today on disciplinary actions related to Jim O'Brien-era hinky doings at Ohio State. A "person familiar with the situation" is reported as saying there will be no postseason ban for the Buckeyes.
Minnesota beat Michigan 59-55 yesterday. Lester Abram (who did indeed play 13 minutes) or no Lester Abram, this might cost them a bid: the Wolverines turned the ball over 21 times (Daniel Horton and, more surprisingly, Dion Harris each had five TOs) and made just four of 22 threes. Abram says UM got away from playing as a team: "It was like people were trying to take it upon themselves to bring us back." For his part, canonical blogger and die-hard Michigan fan Brian Cook--apparently a fussy Felix Unger-ish stickler for proper internet usage (who knew?)--has cast his vote for a new coach with a better lid. Looking in from the outside, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper agrees with Brian: "If Tommy Amaker is a good coach you can kiss my whistle." And at cbs.sportsline this morning, Dennis Dodd wonders aloud just what's so great about this Duke coaching tree that's given us Amaker and Quin Snyder....Moe Hargrow led the Gophers with 15 points, a number Zach Puchtel matched--in rebounds. ("Just toughness," the undersized Puchtel said afterward.) After getting fairly well lit up by Horton in the previous two games against Michigan, Dan Monson made a change and put Vincent Grier on the UM point guard. "We just couldn't play Horton the same way we did the first two times," Monson said. "I wanted to do whatever it took to win this basketball game, and that's what it was," added Grier. Obligatory gopher-based bad pun headline here--this pushes the count to over 100 for the year. (Box score.)
Iowa coach Steve Alford's hometown of New Castle, Indiana, is abuzz with speculation that the local boy may be coming home to take the coaching job at Indiana.
Michigan State beat Purdue 70-58 last night. Mo Ager led the Spartans with 20 points while Goran Suton added a career-high 12. Gary Ware scored 20 for the Boilers. Purdue freshman Nate Minnoy saw his first action since suffering a knee injury in January and played 12 minutes. And Matt Trannon returned for the Spartans and played 19 minutes with a protective mask (earning a salute from Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz). Paul Davis said he was happy to have Trannon back: "Knowing there's a guy there who's going to do the dirty work definitely helps my game." Afterward Tom Izzo had high praise for his counterpart: "Matt Painter did a hell of a job. He is a good protégé. When you've got Gene Keady and Bruce Weber in your blood... he just did a hell of a job." Painter, in turn, gave credit to his players for their performance: "I thought our guys gave a really great effort."...Today's Awfully Anguished Award for Assiduously Awkward Alliteration goes to the anonymous headline editor at the Detroit Free Press who came up with this one: "Ager, energy, pacify pesky Purdue."...Shannon Brown says: bring on Illinois. Izzo adds: "They've had our number lately, and we've got to find a way to get that corrected." (Box score.)
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says, even though tonight's winner will be faced with a brutal 14-hour turnaround going into Saturday's semifinal, he's not going to worry about changing his substitution pattern: "If you sub too much and don't advance, then they sit there for a whole week." Besides, when Weber takes Dee Brown out of the game "he gets mad at me."...What's this? Shannon Brown and Dee Brown were high school teammates? Who knew? Why wasn't I told?...What can tempo-free stats do for you? Here's a table purporting to compare and contrast this year's Illinois team with last year's edition. The table lists 12 statistical measures of performance, ten of which can't be compared directly due to the differing tempos of the two teams. Ignore everything except the 3FG percentage and opponent 3FG pct.
Wisconsin assistant Gary Close says playing Indiana right now (in Indy no less) is "real dangerous."...Profile of Badger guard Michael Flowers here....Profile of Hoosier guard Marshall Strickland here.
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Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
About that All-Wonk Team....
John,
I can't agree more with your selection of Jamar Butler to the All-Wonk team. I was a little surprised you chose him as your POY, but your case is convincing. The kid has ice-water in his veins. Him finding his scoring touch (he averaged 32 a game as a senior in HS) was just the thing Ohio State needed to go from "solid" to "pretty darn good." I was saying in the middle of this season that he is the main reason we won't struggle too much next season, despite the loss of four starters. Add in Lewis and Harris being seniors, a vastly improved junior-year Terwilliger providing depth in the post, and of course the Thad Five, and things look bright in Columbus.
As for your choice of Thad Matta as Coach of the Year, however, I have to strongly disagree. He sucks. No other team ANYWHERE should EVER consider him to fill a coaching vacancy at their school. Ever. Just let the man play out his career in a low-pressure job at a football school.
Please.
Keep up the good work,
Brian G.
Columbus
Your impartiality does you credit, Brian. Ever considered a career as an Illinois supreme court justice? ¶ 5:36 AM
Yesterday's results at the Big Ten Tournament in Indy leave us with the following games for today and tonight:
(1) Ohio State vs. (8) Penn State (ESPN, noon ET)
The undersized Nittany Lions will play zone and, as crazy as that sounds when going against the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten, I think that's the only possible course of action for Ed DeChellis's team. Their chances are better against Je'Kel Foster and Jamar Butler 20 feet out than they are against Terence Dials six feet out. The Buckeyes beat PSU twice this year and the win in Columbus was simply a 104-69 mauling. The game in State College, however, was more interesting. Penn State hung around for a half in that one and limited Dials to eight points. The Nittany Lions' best shot at making today's game respectable is to again limit Dials' touches--but without putting Ohio State on the free throw line 28 times as they did in State College (though some of that was end-of-game fouling).
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Indiana (ESPN, 2:30pm ET)
This could be a game where, at last, Alando Tucker gets some help in the scoring column. The Hoosiers' interior D can charitably be termed diffident--time for the long but strangely laconic Badger front line to rouse themselves and take it strong to the hole. (Besides, IU's perimeter D is surprisingly good for a team whose coach is resigning. Best for UW to try their luck inside.) That being said, the Badgers' own defense hasn't exactly been formidable of late. And Marco Killingsworth (remember him?) had a nice line in Ann Arbor on Saturday--if you take away the six turnovers. In short: this game should see fewer threes than the first game of the day.
(2) Iowa vs. (10) Minnesota (ESPN Plus, 6:40pm ET)
I'm sorry. I can't write about this game. Picturing the Gopher offense (which won a game yesterday scoring all of 0.81 points per possession) going up against the Hawkeye D? Ye gods. (How in the world did Minnesota take Iowa to three OTs in Iowa City? A game the Gophers would have won, by the way, if Jonathan Williams (the pre-Zach Puchtel Zach Puchtel) or Moe Hargrow could have made a free throw.)...True, the match up between the Iowa offense and the Minnesota D doesn't promise to be much more aesthetically pleasing.
(3) Illinois vs. (6) Michigan State (ESPN Plus, 9:10pm ET)
These teams just played six days ago in East Lansing and the Illini won by seven on the strength of their outside shooting. The means were surprising (and maybe the venue was, as well) but the result actually matched the numbers pretty well: both offenses are good but not great. Illinois' defense, on the other hand, is good, while State's is a hair below average. The Spartans can transcend those tendencies tonight with the help of something uncharacteristic: Illini turnovers, say, or Mo Ager flashing back to Maui and catching fire from outside. (Truth be told, neither team may have a lot to play for in this one. The selection committee is unlikely to wax punitive in the event of a close loss by either team. This is a semifinal match up occurring in the quarters--"one of the best conference tournament games in the country," according to Tom Izzo.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Penn State beat Northwestern 60-42 yesterday. The Nittany Lion zone forced NU into shooting 31 threes, only seven of which went in. Evan Seacat took more shots (ten) than Vedran Vukusic (nine), who, by the way, wasn't pleased with his own performance: "I played the worst game of my life at the worst time." Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch says: "There was something eerie about this game, in a two-thirds empty stadium while the streets outside were buzzing with the thrill of college basketball nuts in town to see their teams in later games. Northwestern doesn't even seem to be part of this tournament, this league, this sport." The 14-15 'Cats may not get an invite to the NIT, even with the new rules that allow under-.500 exceptions....Geary Claxton led PSU with 17 points. Ed DeChellis was pleased with his team's D: "I thought defensively, we were very, very good this afternoon." Jamelle Cornley says: bring on Ohio State. (Box score.)
Ohio State coach Thad Matta says that no matter what happens over the next 48 hours, "whenever you get back home, it’s like, ‘Boy, I can’t wait until 6 Sunday night.'"...The NCAA will announce its decision today on disciplinary actions related to Jim O'Brien-era hinky doings at Ohio State. A "person familiar with the situation" is reported as saying there will be no postseason ban for the Buckeyes.
Minnesota beat Michigan 59-55 yesterday. Lester Abram (who did indeed play 13 minutes) or no Lester Abram, this might cost them a bid: the Wolverines turned the ball over 21 times (Daniel Horton and, more surprisingly, Dion Harris each had five TOs) and made just four of 22 threes. Abram says UM got away from playing as a team: "It was like people were trying to take it upon themselves to bring us back." For his part, canonical blogger and die-hard Michigan fan Brian Cook--apparently a fussy Felix Unger-ish stickler for proper internet usage (who knew?)--has cast his vote for a new coach with a better lid. Looking in from the outside, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper agrees with Brian: "If Tommy Amaker is a good coach you can kiss my whistle." And at cbs.sportsline this morning, Dennis Dodd wonders aloud just what's so great about this Duke coaching tree that's given us Amaker and Quin Snyder....Moe Hargrow led the Gophers with 15 points, a number Zach Puchtel matched--in rebounds. ("Just toughness," the undersized Puchtel said afterward.) After getting fairly well lit up by Horton in the previous two games against Michigan, Dan Monson made a change and put Vincent Grier on the UM point guard. "We just couldn't play Horton the same way we did the first two times," Monson said. "I wanted to do whatever it took to win this basketball game, and that's what it was," added Grier. Obligatory gopher-based bad pun headline here--this pushes the count to over 100 for the year. (Box score.)
Iowa coach Steve Alford's hometown of New Castle, Indiana, is abuzz with speculation that the local boy may be coming home to take the coaching job at Indiana.
Michigan State beat Purdue 70-58 last night. Mo Ager led the Spartans with 20 points while Goran Suton added a career-high 12. Gary Ware scored 20 for the Boilers. Purdue freshman Nate Minnoy saw his first action since suffering a knee injury in January and played 12 minutes. And Matt Trannon returned for the Spartans and played 19 minutes with a protective mask (earning a salute from Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz). Paul Davis said he was happy to have Trannon back: "Knowing there's a guy there who's going to do the dirty work definitely helps my game." Afterward Tom Izzo had high praise for his counterpart: "Matt Painter did a hell of a job. He is a good protégé. When you've got Gene Keady and Bruce Weber in your blood... he just did a hell of a job." Painter, in turn, gave credit to his players for their performance: "I thought our guys gave a really great effort."...Today's Awfully Anguished Award for Assiduously Awkward Alliteration goes to the anonymous headline editor at the Detroit Free Press who came up with this one: "Ager, energy, pacify pesky Purdue."...Shannon Brown says: bring on Illinois. Izzo adds: "They've had our number lately, and we've got to find a way to get that corrected." (Box score.)
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says, even though tonight's winner will be faced with a brutal 14-hour turnaround going into Saturday's semifinal, he's not going to worry about changing his substitution pattern: "If you sub too much and don't advance, then they sit there for a whole week." Besides, when Weber takes Dee Brown out of the game "he gets mad at me."...What's this? Shannon Brown and Dee Brown were high school teammates? Who knew? Why wasn't I told?...What can tempo-free stats do for you? Here's a table purporting to compare and contrast this year's Illinois team with last year's edition. The table lists 12 statistical measures of performance, ten of which can't be compared directly due to the differing tempos of the two teams. Ignore everything except the 3FG percentage and opponent 3FG pct.
Wisconsin assistant Gary Close says playing Indiana right now (in Indy no less) is "real dangerous."...Profile of Badger guard Michael Flowers here....Profile of Hoosier guard Marshall Strickland here.
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About that All-Wonk Team....
John,
I can't agree more with your selection of Jamar Butler to the All-Wonk team. I was a little surprised you chose him as your POY, but your case is convincing. The kid has ice-water in his veins. Him finding his scoring touch (he averaged 32 a game as a senior in HS) was just the thing Ohio State needed to go from "solid" to "pretty darn good." I was saying in the middle of this season that he is the main reason we won't struggle too much next season, despite the loss of four starters. Add in Lewis and Harris being seniors, a vastly improved junior-year Terwilliger providing depth in the post, and of course the Thad Five, and things look bright in Columbus.
As for your choice of Thad Matta as Coach of the Year, however, I have to strongly disagree. He sucks. No other team ANYWHERE should EVER consider him to fill a coaching vacancy at their school. Ever. Just let the man play out his career in a low-pressure job at a football school.
Please.
Keep up the good work,
Brian G.
Columbus
Your impartiality does you credit, Brian. Ever considered a career as an Illinois supreme court justice? ¶ 5:36 AM
Thursday, March 09, 2006
Sitting at the dork table
Kudos to oracular Nittany Lion observer David Jones for coining the definitive term for today's festivities in Indy: for the first time in the conference tournament's history, Michigan State has indeed been "forced to sit at the dork table in the Big Ten cafeteria." The Spartans are playing on Thursday.
And so in keeping with the dork theme, I thought I'd take some numbers for offense and defense from the conference season and throw them at this neutral-court environment, just to see what kind of scores would be predicted. (In other words, to predict how many points Team A will score, I've split the difference between Team A's points per possession and Team B's points allowed per possession--and then done the same for Team B vs. Team A. Lastly I've split the difference between each team's average number of possessions per game to guess at the pace.) I call this method my patented lazy dork methodology.
Here's what's on tap for today and this evening....
(8) Penn State vs. (9) Northwestern (ESPN2, noon ET)
Lazy dork predicts: Northwestern 64, Penn State 63
Lazy dork predicts a Northwestern win in a slow close game. I'll buy the slow part but I'm not so sure about the rest. The Nittany Lions are 2-0 against the Wildcats this season, winning by four in Evanston in January and by 13 in State College a couple weeks ago. Penn State's main weakness is their defense and the best way to exploit that weakness is to maximize the number of possessions and attack the inside, where the Nittany Lions are vertically challenged. The Wildcats, conversely, are built to minimize the number of possessions and shoot a lot of threes. And when NU faces a zone like Penn State's, the steady stream of threes becomes a torrent: 31 of Northwestern's 45 FGAs in State College were threes. So it will come down to whether or not the 'Cats are on from outside. The winner plays Ohio State.
BONUS Penn State fun fact! The Nittany Lions' opponents in conference games this season shot more threes (430) than twos (427).
(7) Michigan vs. (10) Minnesota (ESPN2, 2:30pm ET)
Lazy dork predicts: Michigan 67, Minnesota 65
Again, this might not be as close as lazy dork would have us believe. The Wolverines have beaten the Gophers handily twice this year and Minnesota doesn't appear well suited to seize the opportunities that Michigan's leaky defense can present. The Gophers' best shot in this one may be to pressure the turnover-prone Wolverines. The winner plays Iowa.
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) Purdue (ESPN2, 6pm ET)
Lazy dork predicts: Michigan State 69, Purdue 64
Shouldn't be that close, not after halftime anyway.
BONUS fascinating dork table factoid!
Over at Ken Pomeroy's blog this morning, his alert readers have applied Bill James' log5 method to Ken's own Pythagorean winning percentages for various D-I teams--which, I now realize, is by far the geekiest sequence of words I've ever typed. Anyway, the result is a set of probabilities for each Big Ten team at every stage of this weekend's tournament in Indy.
And the good news for Michigan State is that they're at least the cool jock at the dork table: there's about a five percent probability of State winning four games in four days. Which might sound kind of low until you consider that Michigan's chances net out to about three percent and that every other team playing today and this evening faces a less than one percent probability of winning four games in four days. Take heart, Spartans! You stand the best chance of going to prom of any of the dorks.
Note. To win four conference tournament games in four days is every bit as rare as you'd expect. It's only happened nine times in the history of Division I.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody echoes this blogger's assessment of what we're likely to see in today's game between the Wildcats and Penn State: "At the end of the day, when a team’s playing zone, you’re taking 20 (3-pointers) and you have to make some of them." Profile of Wildcat Mohamed Hachad here....Penn State coach Ed DeChellis says of the Wildcats: "Defensively, they just play differently than anybody else. They try to keep the ball away from the basket as much as they can."
Michigan coach Tommy Amaker says Courtney Sims "needs to be a little more aggressive." Amaker also says he'd like to see Dion Harris break out of his shooting slump: "We're trying to see if we can get things back in sync and clicking in the right cycle for him."...Profile of Minnesota senior Adam Boone here.
Michigan State forward Matt Trannon has been cleared by doctors and may see limited minutes this evening against Purdue. Trannon missed the Spartans' last four games after suffering a broken jaw against Michigan. (Yes, he'll have to wear that creepy mask that ESPN's Erin Andrews held up during the Wisconsin game--the one that has led Trannon to be dubbed "Trannibal Lecter.")...Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz gives Tom Izzo credit for taking it easy with his tired team....Shannon Brown still maintains he will return to East Lansing for his senior season....Profile of Delco Rowley here....Boiler coach Matt Painter doesn't sound thrilled about his team's draw: "Maybe we would have liked to have played somebody else but this is what we have and we're going to get ready for them." Matt Kiefer is a senior and yet he's never won a Big Ten tournament game.
Iowa is hoping for its best NCAA tournament seed in a very long while. The Hawkeyes haven't been seeded higher than a 4 since 1987....Profile of associate head coach Craig Neal here.
Asked about Wisconsin, bracketologist Joe Lunardi had this to say: "It sure would be nice, if I'm a member of the committee, to see them do something away from home."
Indefatigable hoops savant Jeff Shelman poses five pert questions this morning regarding the Big Ten tournament--make haste!
It's a hoops republic! (Vox hoopuli!)
God bless the state of Indiana, long may she reign. Only in the Hoosier state could you conduct an opinion poll with a random sample of phone bill-paying citizens on the question of who should be the next basketball coach at the big state university (in this case Indiana) and actually get meaningful responses. (Results: he shouldn't be Bob Knight and he doesn't necessarily have to have IU ties--but Steve Alford still appears to be the people's choice. For his part, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper thinks IU is Alford's choice: "He wants the Indiana job so bad it hurts.") I love that about Hoosiers--they do hoops like SEC states do football: with total abandon....Meanwhile, Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says: forget the poll! Just hire Thad Matta. (Oh, and Bob? It's Dan Monson.)...Nifty tables here, courtesy of oracular Hoosier observer Terry Hutchens, on the perennial debate concerning the value of conference tournaments. (More.)
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Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Spartan fan Kyle
Wonk,
I was one of what was probably a significant number of MSU fans to complain to you earlier in the year about MSU's conference schedule. As much as I deplore the 16-game schedule, I think it's actually better than an 18-game schedule from a fairness standpoint.
With an 18-game schedule, each team plays two other teams once. With a 16-game schedule, each team players four other teams once. If you miss games against two teams, the odds are significant they could both be really good teams or both be really bad teams. With four teams, things will tend to even out. You're probably going to miss two bad teams and two good teams or, at worst, three of one and one of the other.
I think MSU's schedule was just a complete fluke this year--the four teams they played once being the four worst teams in the league. I think the schedule-neutral expected wins you posted bear my theory out. MSU really got hosed, but for everyone else things more or less evened out. I think one team getting hosed like that won't happen very frequently going forward.
My vote is to do away with the conference tournament and go to a full round robin. Since that's not going to happen, I'd rather stick to the 16-game schedule than go to an 18-game schedule.
Keep up the good work.
Kyle J.
Lansing
Kyle, I tend to agree with you: the status quo, sucky though it may be, is preferable to either a) an RPI-deflating 20-game round-robin, or b) an 18-game slate that would arguably magnify the prominence of whom you don't play. Granted, Rick Majerus is exactly right: the current 16-game schedule is analogous to having golfers play different courses entirely. But we all acknowledge and accept that. If the regular season conference champion were, as in olden times, the only team that went to the NCAA tournament, then, of course, you'd have a problem. But as it is, "regular season champion" is simply a nice honorific for one of several teams on their way to the dance.
¶ 6:09 AM
Kudos to oracular Nittany Lion observer David Jones for coining the definitive term for today's festivities in Indy: for the first time in the conference tournament's history, Michigan State has indeed been "forced to sit at the dork table in the Big Ten cafeteria." The Spartans are playing on Thursday.
And so in keeping with the dork theme, I thought I'd take some numbers for offense and defense from the conference season and throw them at this neutral-court environment, just to see what kind of scores would be predicted. (In other words, to predict how many points Team A will score, I've split the difference between Team A's points per possession and Team B's points allowed per possession--and then done the same for Team B vs. Team A. Lastly I've split the difference between each team's average number of possessions per game to guess at the pace.) I call this method my patented lazy dork methodology.
Here's what's on tap for today and this evening....
(8) Penn State vs. (9) Northwestern (ESPN2, noon ET)
Lazy dork predicts: Northwestern 64, Penn State 63
Lazy dork predicts a Northwestern win in a slow close game. I'll buy the slow part but I'm not so sure about the rest. The Nittany Lions are 2-0 against the Wildcats this season, winning by four in Evanston in January and by 13 in State College a couple weeks ago. Penn State's main weakness is their defense and the best way to exploit that weakness is to maximize the number of possessions and attack the inside, where the Nittany Lions are vertically challenged. The Wildcats, conversely, are built to minimize the number of possessions and shoot a lot of threes. And when NU faces a zone like Penn State's, the steady stream of threes becomes a torrent: 31 of Northwestern's 45 FGAs in State College were threes. So it will come down to whether or not the 'Cats are on from outside. The winner plays Ohio State.
BONUS Penn State fun fact! The Nittany Lions' opponents in conference games this season shot more threes (430) than twos (427).
(7) Michigan vs. (10) Minnesota (ESPN2, 2:30pm ET)
Lazy dork predicts: Michigan 67, Minnesota 65
Again, this might not be as close as lazy dork would have us believe. The Wolverines have beaten the Gophers handily twice this year and Minnesota doesn't appear well suited to seize the opportunities that Michigan's leaky defense can present. The Gophers' best shot in this one may be to pressure the turnover-prone Wolverines. The winner plays Iowa.
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) Purdue (ESPN2, 6pm ET)
Lazy dork predicts: Michigan State 69, Purdue 64
Shouldn't be that close, not after halftime anyway.
BONUS fascinating dork table factoid!
Over at Ken Pomeroy's blog this morning, his alert readers have applied Bill James' log5 method to Ken's own Pythagorean winning percentages for various D-I teams--which, I now realize, is by far the geekiest sequence of words I've ever typed. Anyway, the result is a set of probabilities for each Big Ten team at every stage of this weekend's tournament in Indy.
And the good news for Michigan State is that they're at least the cool jock at the dork table: there's about a five percent probability of State winning four games in four days. Which might sound kind of low until you consider that Michigan's chances net out to about three percent and that every other team playing today and this evening faces a less than one percent probability of winning four games in four days. Take heart, Spartans! You stand the best chance of going to prom of any of the dorks.
Note. To win four conference tournament games in four days is every bit as rare as you'd expect. It's only happened nine times in the history of Division I.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody echoes this blogger's assessment of what we're likely to see in today's game between the Wildcats and Penn State: "At the end of the day, when a team’s playing zone, you’re taking 20 (3-pointers) and you have to make some of them." Profile of Wildcat Mohamed Hachad here....Penn State coach Ed DeChellis says of the Wildcats: "Defensively, they just play differently than anybody else. They try to keep the ball away from the basket as much as they can."
Michigan coach Tommy Amaker says Courtney Sims "needs to be a little more aggressive." Amaker also says he'd like to see Dion Harris break out of his shooting slump: "We're trying to see if we can get things back in sync and clicking in the right cycle for him."...Profile of Minnesota senior Adam Boone here.
Michigan State forward Matt Trannon has been cleared by doctors and may see limited minutes this evening against Purdue. Trannon missed the Spartans' last four games after suffering a broken jaw against Michigan. (Yes, he'll have to wear that creepy mask that ESPN's Erin Andrews held up during the Wisconsin game--the one that has led Trannon to be dubbed "Trannibal Lecter.")...Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz gives Tom Izzo credit for taking it easy with his tired team....Shannon Brown still maintains he will return to East Lansing for his senior season....Profile of Delco Rowley here....Boiler coach Matt Painter doesn't sound thrilled about his team's draw: "Maybe we would have liked to have played somebody else but this is what we have and we're going to get ready for them." Matt Kiefer is a senior and yet he's never won a Big Ten tournament game.
Iowa is hoping for its best NCAA tournament seed in a very long while. The Hawkeyes haven't been seeded higher than a 4 since 1987....Profile of associate head coach Craig Neal here.
Asked about Wisconsin, bracketologist Joe Lunardi had this to say: "It sure would be nice, if I'm a member of the committee, to see them do something away from home."
Indefatigable hoops savant Jeff Shelman poses five pert questions this morning regarding the Big Ten tournament--make haste!
It's a hoops republic! (Vox hoopuli!)
God bless the state of Indiana, long may she reign. Only in the Hoosier state could you conduct an opinion poll with a random sample of phone bill-paying citizens on the question of who should be the next basketball coach at the big state university (in this case Indiana) and actually get meaningful responses. (Results: he shouldn't be Bob Knight and he doesn't necessarily have to have IU ties--but Steve Alford still appears to be the people's choice. For his part, oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper thinks IU is Alford's choice: "He wants the Indiana job so bad it hurts.") I love that about Hoosiers--they do hoops like SEC states do football: with total abandon....Meanwhile, Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says: forget the poll! Just hire Thad Matta. (Oh, and Bob? It's Dan Monson.)...Nifty tables here, courtesy of oracular Hoosier observer Terry Hutchens, on the perennial debate concerning the value of conference tournaments. (More.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Spartan fan Kyle
Wonk,
I was one of what was probably a significant number of MSU fans to complain to you earlier in the year about MSU's conference schedule. As much as I deplore the 16-game schedule, I think it's actually better than an 18-game schedule from a fairness standpoint.
With an 18-game schedule, each team plays two other teams once. With a 16-game schedule, each team players four other teams once. If you miss games against two teams, the odds are significant they could both be really good teams or both be really bad teams. With four teams, things will tend to even out. You're probably going to miss two bad teams and two good teams or, at worst, three of one and one of the other.
I think MSU's schedule was just a complete fluke this year--the four teams they played once being the four worst teams in the league. I think the schedule-neutral expected wins you posted bear my theory out. MSU really got hosed, but for everyone else things more or less evened out. I think one team getting hosed like that won't happen very frequently going forward.
My vote is to do away with the conference tournament and go to a full round robin. Since that's not going to happen, I'd rather stick to the 16-game schedule than go to an 18-game schedule.
Keep up the good work.
Kyle J.
Lansing
Kyle, I tend to agree with you: the status quo, sucky though it may be, is preferable to either a) an RPI-deflating 20-game round-robin, or b) an 18-game slate that would arguably magnify the prominence of whom you don't play. Granted, Rick Majerus is exactly right: the current 16-game schedule is analogous to having golfers play different courses entirely. But we all acknowledge and accept that. If the regular season conference champion were, as in olden times, the only team that went to the NCAA tournament, then, of course, you'd have a problem. But as it is, "regular season champion" is simply a nice honorific for one of several teams on their way to the dance.
¶ 6:09 AM
Wednesday, March 08, 2006
Presenting the All-Wonk Team (2.0)
In ascending order:
Greg Brunner, Iowa
Despite what you've heard, Greg Brunner is not the best rebounder in the Big Ten. While the hard-working Hawkeye rebounds a very strong 17 percent of all missed shots when he's in the game, Graham Brown hauls in more than 19 percent. Still, I find myself giving Brunner the nod for this fifth spot just barely (and I do mean barely) over Je'Kel Foster. You know what you're going to get with Brunner: 1) defensive rebounds; 2) fouls called on the opponent in abundance; and 3) trips to the line. Game in, game out. Brunner is a triumph of will over physics: a slow short pudgy guy (albeit less pudgy than a year ago) who, after four years of patient and dogged effort, has very nice footwork on the low block. Defense is not his strong suit but Erek Hansen's got his back. Plus he's tenacious--Brunner is the rock upon which Iowa has built its most successful season in years. If Steve Alford does get the Indiana job, he should give the signing bonus to Brunner.
Terence Dials, Ohio State
Dials was named the Big Ten POY by both the writers and the coaches yesterday--and why not? He's the leading scorer on the first-place team. And--for the writers, the coaches, and, yes, me--that is indeed the key noun: scorer. It's what Dials does; there's nothing else to talk about. He's an adequate but not tremendous rebounder (eighth-best in the conference). He never dishes assists. (Even by the forgiving standards of the big men, Dials' 1.3 assists per 100 possessions is anemic.) And he's not going to block any shots. (Think of it this way: Courtney Sims is exactly twice as likely to block a shot on a given possession as Dials. And Erek Hansen, in turn, is more than twice as likely to block a shot as Sims.) No, it's all about the scoring. Dials triggers in opposing fans what I call the "oh crap" moment. When Dials gets the ball in the paint against your team, you sigh and say "oh, crap," or its equivalent. (And, granted, part of that is a tribute to the Buckeyes as a team. Opponents are reluctant to give help on Dials due to Ohio State's outside shooting.) He simply gets the job done on the low block--and takes pretty good care of the ball while he's at it. A vanishing breed, that.
Alando Tucker, Wisconsin
Any observer of Big Ten basketball who names Tucker as first-team All-Big Ten should be required to give an explanation, for Tucker's statistics are truly weak--weaker than is commonly realized, in fact. (Actually, not his stats, plural. Just one stat: missed shots. Tucker's PPWS is 0.98.) OK, fair enough. Here's my explanation. I think Tucker's Mount Kilimanjaro of missed shots this year accurately describes the truth of the matter: he is all alone. That's nothing against the other Badgers, who in fact do an outstanding job taking care of the ball and can, on occasion, play some solid defense. But scoring is another matter. And it's not just that there's no one else to score--though that's accurate enough. (Kammron Taylor can get hot from outside on occasion but that's not going to get it done night in and night out.) There's not even anyone on this team to feed the ball to Tucker. Wisconsin's most prolific assist man, in tempo-free terms, is 6-10 Jason Chappell. (No, I'm not kidding.) So I say: darn right Tucker's stats are ugly! Let's put you in this lineup and see where your PPWS nets out. No other Big Ten player could have more justification for occasional bouts of fatigue or even self-pity. And yet I've never seen Tucker coast or shoot so much as a cross look at any of his teammates. (Unlike Dials, who pouts showily, on occasion, when not fed the ball.) If there's such a thing as a captain of the All-Wonk Team, it is Tucker. (BONUS all-alone note! Seeing Tucker's stats for this year makes me muse anew how incredible the year Carl Landry had last year was. Landry was every bit as alone as Tucker--if not more so--and yet he was a model of scoring efficiency. Just unbelievable.)
Paul Davis, Michigan State
Yeah, yeah, I know. In that Sports Illustrated poll, the players of the Big Ten named Davis "most overrated." (Hey, they also said Jeff Horner (shooting 34.5 percent on his threes) is the best shooter in the conference. 'Nuff said.) The players are entitled to their opinions; I'm entitled to mine: if anything Davis is underrated. He combines offensive efficiency with sheer volume on a level that no other Big Ten player even approaches. (Link here and scroll down to "At least 24% of possessions used.") He was the second-best rebounder among Big Ten players this season (behind only Graham Brown) and was number one last season. His team has failed to meet its expectations thus far this season, it's true. But, with the exception of some notable hiccups, Davis has delivered on his end of the deal--and then some. My pet theory is that if Davis had the facial expression and on-floor personality of, say, Zach Puchtel, he would have made first-team with the writers and coaches. Update: I'm bravely standing by my choice here even though (gulp) Seth Davis agrees with me. (Wow. "Seth Davis agrees with me." Five words I never thought I'd say. If you ever have trouble telling us apart, I'm the one who spells "Terence" correctly.)
Jamar Butler, Ohio State (Wonk POY)
Far and away the easiest question for me to answer as part of this little exercise was: who's the best point guard in the league? Dee Brown, Daniel Horton, and Drew Neitzel all have their strong points. But Butler, at least this year, had no weak points. He was stellar across the board: shooting 44 percent on his threes, dishing more than eight assists every 100 possessions (and even that number is slightly deflated by the Buckeyes' Illinois-in-2005-like ability to spread assists around), never turning the ball over, and playing consistently tough D. None of the others named above can say as much. Only a sophomore, Butler runs his veteran team like a fifth-year senior. (He already has that Deron Williams calm that should be mandatory for point guards. I can't recall a single instance this season where I saw him out of control.) I was already mulling whether or not to make Butler my POY recently when I noticed that the young Buckeye has the highest offensive rating of any Big Ten starter. (Offensive rating being, in effect, the equivalent of a team's points per possession, only for individual players.) Granted, a good deal of Butler's efficiency comes from facing defenses preoccupied with the likes of Terence Dials and Je'Kel Foster. Nevertheless, Butler has made his very good team even better. Next year, with the arrival of Greg Oden and the rest of the "Thad Five," Butler will probably have to shoulder more of the load on offense, at least initially. If so his numbers will dip in terms of efficiency. Just the same, fans of ten other teams should be concerned: next year's Ohio State team may spend all of a game-and-a-half in the awkward youthful stage with Butler running the point.
Tough to leave off....
Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State
Foster has more assists (5.7) per 100 possessions than just about any non-point guard starter in the league, creates more steals (4.4) per 100 possessions than any other player discussed here, and hits 44.7 percent of his threes. I guess for me, picking Greg Brunner over Foster was like picking a solid low-growth mutual fund over a flashy tech stock.
James Augustine, Illinois
Augustine, of course, rebounds (about) as well as anyone in the league not named Graham Brown or Paul Davis. He's been a model of scoring efficiency for two years running now. He creates more steals than any other big man in the conference. He dishes more assists than any big man besides Marco Killingsworth. And he takes care of the ball. Leaving him off was very tough to do--I took a long, long look at Augustine over Dials.
Shannon Brown, Michigan State
Think of Shannon Brown this way: Mo Ager's toughest competition for All-Big Ten consideration comes from his own teammate. Brown shoots more accurately, scores more efficiently, dishes more assists, loses fewer turnovers, creates more steals, and hauls in more rebounds than Ager (speaking in tempo-free terms, of course). Brown can play--and we might not see him in East Lansing next year.
Dee Brown, Illinois
Dee Brown was my POY last year, deservedly so. (Fearless iconoclast Gregg Doyel, for his part, has Brown as this year's Big Ten POY.) More recently, of course, Brown's missed a ton of shots. Even so, this Illinois fan has a higher accolade for Brown than a silly little All-Wonk team: the truth. There is no other player in college basketball that I'd rather have running my team over the next three weeks than Dee Brown. Give me Brown and Alando Tucker and I'll win some games. (And miss some shots!)
Coach of the Year
Matta. Hoosiers, hire him if you can.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The All-Big Ten teams were announced yesterday and Terence Dials was named POY by both the coaches and the writers. Since the inclusion of Bracey Wright on last year's team as selected by the writers, I tend to give more credence to the coaches' selections, to wit:
James Augustine
Dee Brown
Greg Brunner
Terence Dials
Alando Tucker
The writers also had Brown, Brunner, Dials, and Tucker, but told Augustine about the nice consolation prizes backstage and brought on Daniel Horton in his place. (Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper terms Augustine's selection by the coaches "a mild surprise.")
Erek Hansen was named Defensive POY by the coaches, who also selected their first-ever All-Defensive team, one apparently culled largely from the steals leader board:
Shannon Brown
Je'Kel Foster
Mohamed Hachad
Erek Hansen
Brian Randle
In today's less All-Big Ten-ish venues....
From Michael Pointer's interview of Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany in this morning's Indianapolis Star:
Q: Is there any thought of going to a 20-game conference schedule (which would be a full round robin) instead of the current 16?
A: No.
Q: Why? Is the tournament just doing so well financially you've got to keep it?
A: It's financial a little bit, but I also think it's a great marketing tool. People enjoy coming under one roof. I think that's what the tournament is for. Football isn't like that. You can't do it in opposition to the coaches (who generally are against playing 20 conference games). I think they're leaning toward 18 myself.
Former Iowa star Pierre Pierce is currently serving a two-year sentence at the Mt. Pleasant Correctional Facility in Iowa. With good behavior he will be eligible for release in October. Pierce isn't granting interviews but the Chicago Sun-Times has forged ahead anyway with a very thorough look back at the multi-year multi-incident saga that was Pierre Pierce at Iowa....Iowa City Press-Citizen columnist Pat Harty salutes Erek Hansen and Doug Thomas here.
Isiah Thomas says he's not interested in the coaching vacancy at Indiana. Thomas made his statement after he was reportedly seen in Bloomington yesterday.
Purdue is no longer hitting threes like they were earlier in the season: Chris Lutz, Marcus Green, and Chris Hartley are a combined 4-of-40 on their threes over the past four games....Marcus White's left knee is bothering him but he vows to play through the pain tomorrow evening against Michigan State.
Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he's not worried about facing a Michigan team tomorrow that beat the Gophers handily twice this year: "What we need to worry about is getting ourselves better. We've lost three games by a total of [16] points. That's a lot of minutes for six or seven more plays to make. We need to concentrate on those six or seven plays."
Is Penn State in danger of being left out of the revamped NIT? They might be, if regular-season champions like Lipscomb, Georgia Southern, and Manhattan keep losing in their conference tournaments.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
More EMphasis on the EM?
John,
I love your site. Keep up the good work.
You might talk a little bit about how the efficiency margin parallels the final standings. It validates the usefulness of your stats.
Thanks,
Joe C.
Actually, I find efficiency margin more interesting when it doesn't parrot the standings. Last year, for example, the EM was saying Minnesota (with an EM of 0.00) should have felt very fortunate to have gone 10-6 in-conference. This year the EM suggests, among other things, that Iowa may be closer to Wisconsin than to Illinois and that Indiana may be little or no threat in March, despite their recent wins.
Additional note: last year Michigan State had a beautiful EM but no one noticed or cared because they lost to Iowa in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. This year, one potential Michigan State would appear to be Kansas. Of course, would-be Michigan States still need help from the brackets--anyone in the neighborhood of Connecticut is unlikely to live long enough to be hailed as a surprise. Still, keep an eye on the Jayhawks. ¶ 6:44 AM
In ascending order:
Greg Brunner, Iowa
Despite what you've heard, Greg Brunner is not the best rebounder in the Big Ten. While the hard-working Hawkeye rebounds a very strong 17 percent of all missed shots when he's in the game, Graham Brown hauls in more than 19 percent. Still, I find myself giving Brunner the nod for this fifth spot just barely (and I do mean barely) over Je'Kel Foster. You know what you're going to get with Brunner: 1) defensive rebounds; 2) fouls called on the opponent in abundance; and 3) trips to the line. Game in, game out. Brunner is a triumph of will over physics: a slow short pudgy guy (albeit less pudgy than a year ago) who, after four years of patient and dogged effort, has very nice footwork on the low block. Defense is not his strong suit but Erek Hansen's got his back. Plus he's tenacious--Brunner is the rock upon which Iowa has built its most successful season in years. If Steve Alford does get the Indiana job, he should give the signing bonus to Brunner.
Terence Dials, Ohio State
Dials was named the Big Ten POY by both the writers and the coaches yesterday--and why not? He's the leading scorer on the first-place team. And--for the writers, the coaches, and, yes, me--that is indeed the key noun: scorer. It's what Dials does; there's nothing else to talk about. He's an adequate but not tremendous rebounder (eighth-best in the conference). He never dishes assists. (Even by the forgiving standards of the big men, Dials' 1.3 assists per 100 possessions is anemic.) And he's not going to block any shots. (Think of it this way: Courtney Sims is exactly twice as likely to block a shot on a given possession as Dials. And Erek Hansen, in turn, is more than twice as likely to block a shot as Sims.) No, it's all about the scoring. Dials triggers in opposing fans what I call the "oh crap" moment. When Dials gets the ball in the paint against your team, you sigh and say "oh, crap," or its equivalent. (And, granted, part of that is a tribute to the Buckeyes as a team. Opponents are reluctant to give help on Dials due to Ohio State's outside shooting.) He simply gets the job done on the low block--and takes pretty good care of the ball while he's at it. A vanishing breed, that.
Alando Tucker, Wisconsin
Any observer of Big Ten basketball who names Tucker as first-team All-Big Ten should be required to give an explanation, for Tucker's statistics are truly weak--weaker than is commonly realized, in fact. (Actually, not his stats, plural. Just one stat: missed shots. Tucker's PPWS is 0.98.) OK, fair enough. Here's my explanation. I think Tucker's Mount Kilimanjaro of missed shots this year accurately describes the truth of the matter: he is all alone. That's nothing against the other Badgers, who in fact do an outstanding job taking care of the ball and can, on occasion, play some solid defense. But scoring is another matter. And it's not just that there's no one else to score--though that's accurate enough. (Kammron Taylor can get hot from outside on occasion but that's not going to get it done night in and night out.) There's not even anyone on this team to feed the ball to Tucker. Wisconsin's most prolific assist man, in tempo-free terms, is 6-10 Jason Chappell. (No, I'm not kidding.) So I say: darn right Tucker's stats are ugly! Let's put you in this lineup and see where your PPWS nets out. No other Big Ten player could have more justification for occasional bouts of fatigue or even self-pity. And yet I've never seen Tucker coast or shoot so much as a cross look at any of his teammates. (Unlike Dials, who pouts showily, on occasion, when not fed the ball.) If there's such a thing as a captain of the All-Wonk Team, it is Tucker. (BONUS all-alone note! Seeing Tucker's stats for this year makes me muse anew how incredible the year Carl Landry had last year was. Landry was every bit as alone as Tucker--if not more so--and yet he was a model of scoring efficiency. Just unbelievable.)
Paul Davis, Michigan State
Yeah, yeah, I know. In that Sports Illustrated poll, the players of the Big Ten named Davis "most overrated." (Hey, they also said Jeff Horner (shooting 34.5 percent on his threes) is the best shooter in the conference. 'Nuff said.) The players are entitled to their opinions; I'm entitled to mine: if anything Davis is underrated. He combines offensive efficiency with sheer volume on a level that no other Big Ten player even approaches. (Link here and scroll down to "At least 24% of possessions used.") He was the second-best rebounder among Big Ten players this season (behind only Graham Brown) and was number one last season. His team has failed to meet its expectations thus far this season, it's true. But, with the exception of some notable hiccups, Davis has delivered on his end of the deal--and then some. My pet theory is that if Davis had the facial expression and on-floor personality of, say, Zach Puchtel, he would have made first-team with the writers and coaches. Update: I'm bravely standing by my choice here even though (gulp) Seth Davis agrees with me. (Wow. "Seth Davis agrees with me." Five words I never thought I'd say. If you ever have trouble telling us apart, I'm the one who spells "Terence" correctly.)
Jamar Butler, Ohio State (Wonk POY)
Far and away the easiest question for me to answer as part of this little exercise was: who's the best point guard in the league? Dee Brown, Daniel Horton, and Drew Neitzel all have their strong points. But Butler, at least this year, had no weak points. He was stellar across the board: shooting 44 percent on his threes, dishing more than eight assists every 100 possessions (and even that number is slightly deflated by the Buckeyes' Illinois-in-2005-like ability to spread assists around), never turning the ball over, and playing consistently tough D. None of the others named above can say as much. Only a sophomore, Butler runs his veteran team like a fifth-year senior. (He already has that Deron Williams calm that should be mandatory for point guards. I can't recall a single instance this season where I saw him out of control.) I was already mulling whether or not to make Butler my POY recently when I noticed that the young Buckeye has the highest offensive rating of any Big Ten starter. (Offensive rating being, in effect, the equivalent of a team's points per possession, only for individual players.) Granted, a good deal of Butler's efficiency comes from facing defenses preoccupied with the likes of Terence Dials and Je'Kel Foster. Nevertheless, Butler has made his very good team even better. Next year, with the arrival of Greg Oden and the rest of the "Thad Five," Butler will probably have to shoulder more of the load on offense, at least initially. If so his numbers will dip in terms of efficiency. Just the same, fans of ten other teams should be concerned: next year's Ohio State team may spend all of a game-and-a-half in the awkward youthful stage with Butler running the point.
Tough to leave off....
Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State
Foster has more assists (5.7) per 100 possessions than just about any non-point guard starter in the league, creates more steals (4.4) per 100 possessions than any other player discussed here, and hits 44.7 percent of his threes. I guess for me, picking Greg Brunner over Foster was like picking a solid low-growth mutual fund over a flashy tech stock.
James Augustine, Illinois
Augustine, of course, rebounds (about) as well as anyone in the league not named Graham Brown or Paul Davis. He's been a model of scoring efficiency for two years running now. He creates more steals than any other big man in the conference. He dishes more assists than any big man besides Marco Killingsworth. And he takes care of the ball. Leaving him off was very tough to do--I took a long, long look at Augustine over Dials.
Shannon Brown, Michigan State
Think of Shannon Brown this way: Mo Ager's toughest competition for All-Big Ten consideration comes from his own teammate. Brown shoots more accurately, scores more efficiently, dishes more assists, loses fewer turnovers, creates more steals, and hauls in more rebounds than Ager (speaking in tempo-free terms, of course). Brown can play--and we might not see him in East Lansing next year.
Dee Brown, Illinois
Dee Brown was my POY last year, deservedly so. (Fearless iconoclast Gregg Doyel, for his part, has Brown as this year's Big Ten POY.) More recently, of course, Brown's missed a ton of shots. Even so, this Illinois fan has a higher accolade for Brown than a silly little All-Wonk team: the truth. There is no other player in college basketball that I'd rather have running my team over the next three weeks than Dee Brown. Give me Brown and Alando Tucker and I'll win some games. (And miss some shots!)
Coach of the Year
Matta. Hoosiers, hire him if you can.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The All-Big Ten teams were announced yesterday and Terence Dials was named POY by both the coaches and the writers. Since the inclusion of Bracey Wright on last year's team as selected by the writers, I tend to give more credence to the coaches' selections, to wit:
James Augustine
Dee Brown
Greg Brunner
Terence Dials
Alando Tucker
The writers also had Brown, Brunner, Dials, and Tucker, but told Augustine about the nice consolation prizes backstage and brought on Daniel Horton in his place. (Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper terms Augustine's selection by the coaches "a mild surprise.")
Erek Hansen was named Defensive POY by the coaches, who also selected their first-ever All-Defensive team, one apparently culled largely from the steals leader board:
Shannon Brown
Je'Kel Foster
Mohamed Hachad
Erek Hansen
Brian Randle
In today's less All-Big Ten-ish venues....
From Michael Pointer's interview of Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany in this morning's Indianapolis Star:
Q: Is there any thought of going to a 20-game conference schedule (which would be a full round robin) instead of the current 16?
A: No.
Q: Why? Is the tournament just doing so well financially you've got to keep it?
A: It's financial a little bit, but I also think it's a great marketing tool. People enjoy coming under one roof. I think that's what the tournament is for. Football isn't like that. You can't do it in opposition to the coaches (who generally are against playing 20 conference games). I think they're leaning toward 18 myself.
Former Iowa star Pierre Pierce is currently serving a two-year sentence at the Mt. Pleasant Correctional Facility in Iowa. With good behavior he will be eligible for release in October. Pierce isn't granting interviews but the Chicago Sun-Times has forged ahead anyway with a very thorough look back at the multi-year multi-incident saga that was Pierre Pierce at Iowa....Iowa City Press-Citizen columnist Pat Harty salutes Erek Hansen and Doug Thomas here.
Isiah Thomas says he's not interested in the coaching vacancy at Indiana. Thomas made his statement after he was reportedly seen in Bloomington yesterday.
Purdue is no longer hitting threes like they were earlier in the season: Chris Lutz, Marcus Green, and Chris Hartley are a combined 4-of-40 on their threes over the past four games....Marcus White's left knee is bothering him but he vows to play through the pain tomorrow evening against Michigan State.
Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he's not worried about facing a Michigan team tomorrow that beat the Gophers handily twice this year: "What we need to worry about is getting ourselves better. We've lost three games by a total of [16] points. That's a lot of minutes for six or seven more plays to make. We need to concentrate on those six or seven plays."
Is Penn State in danger of being left out of the revamped NIT? They might be, if regular-season champions like Lipscomb, Georgia Southern, and Manhattan keep losing in their conference tournaments.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
More EMphasis on the EM?
John,
I love your site. Keep up the good work.
You might talk a little bit about how the efficiency margin parallels the final standings. It validates the usefulness of your stats.
Thanks,
Joe C.
Actually, I find efficiency margin more interesting when it doesn't parrot the standings. Last year, for example, the EM was saying Minnesota (with an EM of 0.00) should have felt very fortunate to have gone 10-6 in-conference. This year the EM suggests, among other things, that Iowa may be closer to Wisconsin than to Illinois and that Indiana may be little or no threat in March, despite their recent wins.
Additional note: last year Michigan State had a beautiful EM but no one noticed or cared because they lost to Iowa in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament. This year, one potential Michigan State would appear to be Kansas. Of course, would-be Michigan States still need help from the brackets--anyone in the neighborhood of Connecticut is unlikely to live long enough to be hailed as a surprise. Still, keep an eye on the Jayhawks. ¶ 6:44 AM
Tuesday, March 07, 2006
The best at what they do
As part of my preparations for selecting the All-Wonk Team (2.0), I've updated the tempo-free stats for individual players. (I'll post a "final final" set of numbers when all games have been played.) Here are the leaders--not that leadership in a category nets you an automatic selection to the All-Wonk. (Let me be even more plain: Jamar Smith and Graham Brown shouldn't get their hopes up.)
(Note. All stats: all games, 15+ minutes per game.)
Scoring efficiently (PPWS)
The most efficient scorer among Big Ten players this year was none other than Illinois freshman Jamar Smith, who made 59 of his 120 threes. The most efficient scorer among Big Ten starters was Marshall Strickland. Regular readers may recall that Je'Kel Foster led this race virtually the entire year before faltering late in the season....
1. Jamar Smith, Illinois (1.33)
2. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (1.31)
3. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.31)
4. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.30)
5. Paul Davis, Michigan State (1.30)
6. Graham Brown, Michigan (1.29)
7. Jamal Abu-Shamala, Minnesota (1.28)
8. James Augustine, Illinois (1.26)
9. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (1.25)
10. Shannon Brown, Michigan State (1.23)
And here are some bonus PPWS numbers for a few other big names that I've heard bandied about for All-Big Ten consideration.....
Vedran Vukusic, Northwestern (1.21)
Terence Dials, Ohio State (1.20)
Daniel Horton, Michigan (1.19)
Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (1.15)
Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.14)
Greg Brunner, Iowa (1.05)
Jeff Horner, Iowa (1.04)
Dee Brown, Illinois (0.99)
Vincent Grier, Minnesota (0.99)
Alando Tucker, Wisconsin (0.98)
Rebounding (rebound percentage)
Never mind that shooting- and pace-dependent statistical Yugo known as rebounds per game. The best rebounder among Big Ten players this year was actually Graham Brown of Michigan. When Brown was on the floor he rebounded fully 19.3 percent of the missed shots all by himself.
This was a two-man race between Brown and Paul Davis pretty much all season. As it turned out, Brown and Davis finished the regular season well ahead of what can be thought of a third-place knot of four players: Greg Brunner, James Augustine, Courtney Sims, and Marco Killingsworth.
1. Graham Brown, Michigan (19.3)
2. Paul Davis, Michigan State (18.6)
3. Greg Brunner, Iowa (17.0)
4. James Augustine, Illinois (16.9)
5. Courtney Sims, Michigan (16.8)
6. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (16.7)
7. Matt Kiefer, Purdue (16.4)
8. Terence Dials, Ohio State (16.0)
9. Shaun Pruitt, Illinois (15.9)
10. Doug Thomas, Iowa (15.1)
Offensive rebounding (offensive rebound percentage)
I'm going to skip the defensive rebounding entirely here because, frankly, that leader board (Davis, Brown, Augustine, Brunner, Killingsworth, etc.) looks pretty much like the one above. Most rebounds in a game are defensive rebounds so the overlap between the two lists shouldn't be surprising. More interesting, perhaps, is the question of who grabs more than their share of those relatively scarce offensive rebounds.
And so we find that the best offensive rebounder among Big Ten players this year was J'son Stamper of Minnesota, who personally gathered in a robust 14.1 percent of the shots missed by the Gophers while he was on the floor this season.
1. J'son Stamper, Minnesota (14.1)
2. Graham Brown, Michigan (13.4)
3. Shaun Pruitt, Illinois (13.0)
4. Courtney Sims, Michigan (12.6)
5. Matt Kiefer, Purdue (12.5)
6. Brian Randle, Illinois (11.6)
7. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (11.6)
8. Geary Claxton, Penn State (11.5)
9. James Augustine, Illinois (11.4)
10. Paul Davis, Michigan State (11.3)
Assists (per 100 possessions)
The best assist man among Big Ten players this year was Drew Neitzel of Michigan State, who recorded ten assists for every 100 offensive possessions he played.
1. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (10.0)
2. Dee Brown, Illinois (9.8)
3. Jeff Horner, Iowa (9.5)
4. Daniel Horton, Michigan (9.4)
5. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (8.8)
6. Ben Luber, Penn State (8.7)
7. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (8.6)
8. Adam Boone, Minnesota (8.2)
9. Travis Walton, Michigan State (8.0)
10. Matt Sylvester, Ohio State (7.1)
Turnovers--in a bad way (turnovers per 100 possessions)
The most turnover-prone soul among Big Ten players this year was, no surprise, Marco Killingsworth, who gave the ball away about eight times for every 100 offensive possessions he played.
1. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (8.1)
2. Daniel Horton, Michigan (6.6)
3. Mohamed Hachad, Northwestern (6.6)
4. Courtney Sims, Michigan (6.5)
5. Tony Freeman, Iowa (6.2)
6. Robert Vaden, Indiana (6.0)
7. Chris Hunter, Michigan (5.6)
8. Marcus Green, Purdue (5.6)
9. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (5.2)
10. Dee Brown, Illinois (5.1)
Big Ten statistical outliers, Wonk salutes you! Except for you turnover guys.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody, who was hired in Evanston in September 2000, admits: "I thought we would have been in the tournament by now....It’s not that far away, but until you do it, it’s really far away." The biggest hurdle according to Carmody? Recruiting. A former Wildcat has some interesting thoughts there....
Jitim Young, a Chicago product who starred at Northwestern from 2000-04, remembers other top Chicago standouts, such as Luther Head and Kelly Whitney, considering Northwestern when Kevin O’Neill was coach.
But when O’Neill left and Carmody brought in the Princeton offense, many of those players lost interest because of a system Young called “intimidating” and “conservative.”
“The top players, these kids want to go pro,” Young said. “In order to recruit those guys, you have to adjust your style of play.”
Young has seen Carmody make those adjustments to highlight stars like Vedran Vukusic. “It shows growth in Coach Carmody,” he said.
(More.)
Purdue has lost five consecutive Big Ten tournament games but Matt Painter says forget the ancient history! He and his men will be ready for Michigan State Thursday night in Indy: "They've had some troubles with injuries, and hopefully, we can get some shots to go. If Gary Ware can play big for us again, maybe we can come out on top."
Penn State guard Ben Luber says he thinks having this past weekend off "was good for us. I think some of us were a little tired. We had a lot of games straight through. From (the Iowa) game until now we got a little bit of rest in our legs. If we have a good week of practices, that'll follow through to the game on Thursday."
Iowa will face the winner of Thursday's Michigan-Minnesota game and Erek Hansen says he has a preference between the two: "I'd rather play Minnesota, because they got us at their place. If we'd won that we would have tied Ohio State, so I'm real eager to go after them again."...When Doug Thomas plays, his four-year-old son (Doug Thomas III) is watching from Pasadena--read all about it here.
Michigan wing Lester Abram says he'll play against Minnesota Thursday. Abram has been sidelined for the past six weeks with an ankle injury.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan says Alando Tucker is his choice for Big Ten POY: "Is he the most valuable (player)? To me, yes."
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says there's "a 50-50 chance" that Matt Trannon will play this weekend. Trannon suffered a broken jaw in the Michigan game on February 18. Apparently concerned about his team's depth, Izzo is reportedly working on some zone defense looks in practice this week, even though, according to the coach, "It's nothing I'm planning on springing on anybody."...With regard to Shannon Brown, who has said he plans to return to East Lansing for his senior year, Izzo says nothing's been set in stone yet: "I don't think he knows what he's going to do yet. I think you get caught up in the emotion of the day (MSU's final regular-season game). I think for sure he'd like to go (to the NBA). I don't think that's necessarily bad." ....Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp says State "doesn't win dirty anymore, but you can look pretty stylish and still win four straight NCAA tournament games on a neutral floor."
The Illinois bench is playing better of late and Bruce Weber is happy. (Although he's unhappy about the prospect of a 14-hour turnaround between a Friday night quarterfinal and a Saturday afternoon semifinal, should the Illini make it that far.)...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper (who says Illinois is playing for a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament) divulges his choices for the All-Big Ten team, and the thinking behind them, here.
Four erstwhile Chicago Tribune scribes hold forth on the best and worst of the Big Ten season here.
This week's Rashomon Award goes to....
Discussion of Chicago vs. Indy as semi-permanent home for the Big Ten tournament here (head: "Coaches of 2 opinions on host cities") and here (head: "Coaches favor Indianapolis"). More here--with a cautiously neutral headline.
COMING tomorrow!
Media? Coaches? Bah! What savvy fans truly await is the unveiling of the All-Wonk Team (2.0). Tune in tomorrow!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
If everyone played everyone, part deux....
Yesterday I posted the latest email from alert reader Ross B., who uses what he calls Schedule Independent Wins to hypothesize who would win the Big Ten if everyone played everyone in a 20-game home-and-away round robin. As part of his conclusion, Ross yesterday offered the thought that, according to his numbers, Ohio State would have won the Big Ten had a theoretical 20-game round robin been played.
Another alert reader begs to differ....
Wonk,
I have enjoyed Ross B.'s contributions on Schedule Independent Wins. I'm not going to pretend to understand all of the nuances, but from a practical standpoint, I think I have to take exception to this comment in his most recent Wonk-back:
"Fortunately, the title race was not affected by the unbalanced schedule this year. Congratulations to the Ohio State Buckeyes, undisputed Big Ten champions."
You have stated many times in this blog how much advantage the home team has. This Big Ten season, home teams had a 62-26 record. Looking at the schedule we see that Illinois and Ohio State have only met once, in Columbus. That game was won by the Buckeyes. It's very likely that if the game had been played in Champaign we would've had the opposite outcome; which would have given the Illini the "undisputed" Big Ten title. Of course we'll never know.
We can analyze the hypothetical numbers all we want, but until there is a balanced conference schedule, I don't think we'll have a true champion.
Keep up the good work,
Brian M.
Thanks, Brian. I think part of the confusion here--which I've probably helped along--is the conflation of the ideal (for discussion purposes) hypothetical and other possible hypotheticals....
Hypothetically, Ohio State would win if everyone played everyone. Call that "ideal." (Though responsible adults can disagree on the actual desirability of Big Ten teams giving up four RPI-stuffing wins against non-conference teams in exchange for a trip to Iowa City or Madison just to please fussy Archimedeans like me.) That doesn't preclude us from coming up with other hypotheticals--say for example, Ohio State's eighth and final road game isn't in Evanston but, lo and behold, in Champaign.
Note there's no necessary collision between these two hypotheticals. But of course Ross's key premise, for what it is worth, is that the Buckeyes are indeed the best team. (By a hair.)
Michigan State 2006 = North Carolina 2004? (No, not Carolina 2005. Sorry.)
Hey, John,
In trying to determine where Michigan State might be seeded, I looked to the past to see where similar situations have arisen. I thought the ACC in 2004 provides an excellent comparison to what has been going on in the Big Ten in 2006.
CONFERENCE RANK
ACC in 2004: 1
Big Ten in 2006: 1
Top 20 RPI teams
ACC in 2004: 6
Big Ten in 2006: 5
Here are the standings from the ACC in 2004:
Duke - 27-5 (13-3 in ACC); RPI: 1; SOS: 4
NC State - 20-9 (11-5); RPI: 17; SOS:8
Ga Tech - 23-9 (9-7); RPI: 16; SOS 11
Wake Forest - 19-9 (9-7); RPI: 20; SOS:9
No. Carolina - 18-10 (8-8); RPI: 19; SOS:5
Maryland - 19-11 (7-9); RPI: 18; SOS: 2
North Carolina provides the closest parallel to MSU in 2006. They finished 5-5 in their last 10 games, including an opening round loss in the ACC tournament. They were 7-7 against top 50 RPI teams, with a similar RPI and SOS as MSU. Seed in 2004? Sixth.
Maryland is a more interesting case. 14-11 (5-9 in conference) heading into their final two games of the season. They win the final two, then win the ACC tournament. Final seed? Fourth.
What about Georgia Tech? 22-8 record (9-7 in conference) heading into the ACC tournament. Same RPI as MSU. 7-6 against top 50 RPI teams and four more RPI top 100 games than MSU before heading into the ACC tournament, where they went 1-1 (against two top 20 RPI teams). 6-4 in their final 10 games. Final seed: a 3 seed.
Is MSU more like Georgia Tech or North Carolina? If MSU wins two games in the Big Ten Tournament, could they make a legitimate claim to a 3 seed?
Matthew S.
Excellent sleuthing, Matthew! But I want to see the wins before I speculate on what seed said wins may secure. Let's wait and see.... ¶ 6:16 AM
As part of my preparations for selecting the All-Wonk Team (2.0), I've updated the tempo-free stats for individual players. (I'll post a "final final" set of numbers when all games have been played.) Here are the leaders--not that leadership in a category nets you an automatic selection to the All-Wonk. (Let me be even more plain: Jamar Smith and Graham Brown shouldn't get their hopes up.)
(Note. All stats: all games, 15+ minutes per game.)
Scoring efficiently (PPWS)
The most efficient scorer among Big Ten players this year was none other than Illinois freshman Jamar Smith, who made 59 of his 120 threes. The most efficient scorer among Big Ten starters was Marshall Strickland. Regular readers may recall that Je'Kel Foster led this race virtually the entire year before faltering late in the season....
1. Jamar Smith, Illinois (1.33)
2. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (1.31)
3. Courtney Sims, Michigan (1.31)
4. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.30)
5. Paul Davis, Michigan State (1.30)
6. Graham Brown, Michigan (1.29)
7. Jamal Abu-Shamala, Minnesota (1.28)
8. James Augustine, Illinois (1.26)
9. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (1.25)
10. Shannon Brown, Michigan State (1.23)
And here are some bonus PPWS numbers for a few other big names that I've heard bandied about for All-Big Ten consideration.....
Vedran Vukusic, Northwestern (1.21)
Terence Dials, Ohio State (1.20)
Daniel Horton, Michigan (1.19)
Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (1.15)
Maurice Ager, Michigan State (1.14)
Greg Brunner, Iowa (1.05)
Jeff Horner, Iowa (1.04)
Dee Brown, Illinois (0.99)
Vincent Grier, Minnesota (0.99)
Alando Tucker, Wisconsin (0.98)
Rebounding (rebound percentage)
Never mind that shooting- and pace-dependent statistical Yugo known as rebounds per game. The best rebounder among Big Ten players this year was actually Graham Brown of Michigan. When Brown was on the floor he rebounded fully 19.3 percent of the missed shots all by himself.
This was a two-man race between Brown and Paul Davis pretty much all season. As it turned out, Brown and Davis finished the regular season well ahead of what can be thought of a third-place knot of four players: Greg Brunner, James Augustine, Courtney Sims, and Marco Killingsworth.
1. Graham Brown, Michigan (19.3)
2. Paul Davis, Michigan State (18.6)
3. Greg Brunner, Iowa (17.0)
4. James Augustine, Illinois (16.9)
5. Courtney Sims, Michigan (16.8)
6. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (16.7)
7. Matt Kiefer, Purdue (16.4)
8. Terence Dials, Ohio State (16.0)
9. Shaun Pruitt, Illinois (15.9)
10. Doug Thomas, Iowa (15.1)
Offensive rebounding (offensive rebound percentage)
I'm going to skip the defensive rebounding entirely here because, frankly, that leader board (Davis, Brown, Augustine, Brunner, Killingsworth, etc.) looks pretty much like the one above. Most rebounds in a game are defensive rebounds so the overlap between the two lists shouldn't be surprising. More interesting, perhaps, is the question of who grabs more than their share of those relatively scarce offensive rebounds.
And so we find that the best offensive rebounder among Big Ten players this year was J'son Stamper of Minnesota, who personally gathered in a robust 14.1 percent of the shots missed by the Gophers while he was on the floor this season.
1. J'son Stamper, Minnesota (14.1)
2. Graham Brown, Michigan (13.4)
3. Shaun Pruitt, Illinois (13.0)
4. Courtney Sims, Michigan (12.6)
5. Matt Kiefer, Purdue (12.5)
6. Brian Randle, Illinois (11.6)
7. Spencer Tollackson, Minnesota (11.6)
8. Geary Claxton, Penn State (11.5)
9. James Augustine, Illinois (11.4)
10. Paul Davis, Michigan State (11.3)
Assists (per 100 possessions)
The best assist man among Big Ten players this year was Drew Neitzel of Michigan State, who recorded ten assists for every 100 offensive possessions he played.
1. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (10.0)
2. Dee Brown, Illinois (9.8)
3. Jeff Horner, Iowa (9.5)
4. Daniel Horton, Michigan (9.4)
5. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (8.8)
6. Ben Luber, Penn State (8.7)
7. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (8.6)
8. Adam Boone, Minnesota (8.2)
9. Travis Walton, Michigan State (8.0)
10. Matt Sylvester, Ohio State (7.1)
Turnovers--in a bad way (turnovers per 100 possessions)
The most turnover-prone soul among Big Ten players this year was, no surprise, Marco Killingsworth, who gave the ball away about eight times for every 100 offensive possessions he played.
1. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (8.1)
2. Daniel Horton, Michigan (6.6)
3. Mohamed Hachad, Northwestern (6.6)
4. Courtney Sims, Michigan (6.5)
5. Tony Freeman, Iowa (6.2)
6. Robert Vaden, Indiana (6.0)
7. Chris Hunter, Michigan (5.6)
8. Marcus Green, Purdue (5.6)
9. Tim Doyle, Northwestern (5.2)
10. Dee Brown, Illinois (5.1)
Big Ten statistical outliers, Wonk salutes you! Except for you turnover guys.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody, who was hired in Evanston in September 2000, admits: "I thought we would have been in the tournament by now....It’s not that far away, but until you do it, it’s really far away." The biggest hurdle according to Carmody? Recruiting. A former Wildcat has some interesting thoughts there....
Jitim Young, a Chicago product who starred at Northwestern from 2000-04, remembers other top Chicago standouts, such as Luther Head and Kelly Whitney, considering Northwestern when Kevin O’Neill was coach.
But when O’Neill left and Carmody brought in the Princeton offense, many of those players lost interest because of a system Young called “intimidating” and “conservative.”
“The top players, these kids want to go pro,” Young said. “In order to recruit those guys, you have to adjust your style of play.”
Young has seen Carmody make those adjustments to highlight stars like Vedran Vukusic. “It shows growth in Coach Carmody,” he said.
(More.)
Purdue has lost five consecutive Big Ten tournament games but Matt Painter says forget the ancient history! He and his men will be ready for Michigan State Thursday night in Indy: "They've had some troubles with injuries, and hopefully, we can get some shots to go. If Gary Ware can play big for us again, maybe we can come out on top."
Penn State guard Ben Luber says he thinks having this past weekend off "was good for us. I think some of us were a little tired. We had a lot of games straight through. From (the Iowa) game until now we got a little bit of rest in our legs. If we have a good week of practices, that'll follow through to the game on Thursday."
Iowa will face the winner of Thursday's Michigan-Minnesota game and Erek Hansen says he has a preference between the two: "I'd rather play Minnesota, because they got us at their place. If we'd won that we would have tied Ohio State, so I'm real eager to go after them again."...When Doug Thomas plays, his four-year-old son (Doug Thomas III) is watching from Pasadena--read all about it here.
Michigan wing Lester Abram says he'll play against Minnesota Thursday. Abram has been sidelined for the past six weeks with an ankle injury.
Wisconsin coach Bo Ryan says Alando Tucker is his choice for Big Ten POY: "Is he the most valuable (player)? To me, yes."
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says there's "a 50-50 chance" that Matt Trannon will play this weekend. Trannon suffered a broken jaw in the Michigan game on February 18. Apparently concerned about his team's depth, Izzo is reportedly working on some zone defense looks in practice this week, even though, according to the coach, "It's nothing I'm planning on springing on anybody."...With regard to Shannon Brown, who has said he plans to return to East Lansing for his senior year, Izzo says nothing's been set in stone yet: "I don't think he knows what he's going to do yet. I think you get caught up in the emotion of the day (MSU's final regular-season game). I think for sure he'd like to go (to the NBA). I don't think that's necessarily bad." ....Detroit Free Press columnist Drew Sharp says State "doesn't win dirty anymore, but you can look pretty stylish and still win four straight NCAA tournament games on a neutral floor."
The Illinois bench is playing better of late and Bruce Weber is happy. (Although he's unhappy about the prospect of a 14-hour turnaround between a Friday night quarterfinal and a Saturday afternoon semifinal, should the Illini make it that far.)...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper (who says Illinois is playing for a 2-seed in the NCAA tournament) divulges his choices for the All-Big Ten team, and the thinking behind them, here.
Four erstwhile Chicago Tribune scribes hold forth on the best and worst of the Big Ten season here.
This week's Rashomon Award goes to....
Discussion of Chicago vs. Indy as semi-permanent home for the Big Ten tournament here (head: "Coaches of 2 opinions on host cities") and here (head: "Coaches favor Indianapolis"). More here--with a cautiously neutral headline.
COMING tomorrow!
Media? Coaches? Bah! What savvy fans truly await is the unveiling of the All-Wonk Team (2.0). Tune in tomorrow!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
If everyone played everyone, part deux....
Yesterday I posted the latest email from alert reader Ross B., who uses what he calls Schedule Independent Wins to hypothesize who would win the Big Ten if everyone played everyone in a 20-game home-and-away round robin. As part of his conclusion, Ross yesterday offered the thought that, according to his numbers, Ohio State would have won the Big Ten had a theoretical 20-game round robin been played.
Another alert reader begs to differ....
Wonk,
I have enjoyed Ross B.'s contributions on Schedule Independent Wins. I'm not going to pretend to understand all of the nuances, but from a practical standpoint, I think I have to take exception to this comment in his most recent Wonk-back:
"Fortunately, the title race was not affected by the unbalanced schedule this year. Congratulations to the Ohio State Buckeyes, undisputed Big Ten champions."
You have stated many times in this blog how much advantage the home team has. This Big Ten season, home teams had a 62-26 record. Looking at the schedule we see that Illinois and Ohio State have only met once, in Columbus. That game was won by the Buckeyes. It's very likely that if the game had been played in Champaign we would've had the opposite outcome; which would have given the Illini the "undisputed" Big Ten title. Of course we'll never know.
We can analyze the hypothetical numbers all we want, but until there is a balanced conference schedule, I don't think we'll have a true champion.
Keep up the good work,
Brian M.
Thanks, Brian. I think part of the confusion here--which I've probably helped along--is the conflation of the ideal (for discussion purposes) hypothetical and other possible hypotheticals....
Hypothetically, Ohio State would win if everyone played everyone. Call that "ideal." (Though responsible adults can disagree on the actual desirability of Big Ten teams giving up four RPI-stuffing wins against non-conference teams in exchange for a trip to Iowa City or Madison just to please fussy Archimedeans like me.) That doesn't preclude us from coming up with other hypotheticals--say for example, Ohio State's eighth and final road game isn't in Evanston but, lo and behold, in Champaign.
Note there's no necessary collision between these two hypotheticals. But of course Ross's key premise, for what it is worth, is that the Buckeyes are indeed the best team. (By a hair.)
Michigan State 2006 = North Carolina 2004? (No, not Carolina 2005. Sorry.)
Hey, John,
In trying to determine where Michigan State might be seeded, I looked to the past to see where similar situations have arisen. I thought the ACC in 2004 provides an excellent comparison to what has been going on in the Big Ten in 2006.
CONFERENCE RANK
ACC in 2004: 1
Big Ten in 2006: 1
Top 20 RPI teams
ACC in 2004: 6
Big Ten in 2006: 5
Here are the standings from the ACC in 2004:
Duke - 27-5 (13-3 in ACC); RPI: 1; SOS: 4
NC State - 20-9 (11-5); RPI: 17; SOS:8
Ga Tech - 23-9 (9-7); RPI: 16; SOS 11
Wake Forest - 19-9 (9-7); RPI: 20; SOS:9
No. Carolina - 18-10 (8-8); RPI: 19; SOS:5
Maryland - 19-11 (7-9); RPI: 18; SOS: 2
North Carolina provides the closest parallel to MSU in 2006. They finished 5-5 in their last 10 games, including an opening round loss in the ACC tournament. They were 7-7 against top 50 RPI teams, with a similar RPI and SOS as MSU. Seed in 2004? Sixth.
Maryland is a more interesting case. 14-11 (5-9 in conference) heading into their final two games of the season. They win the final two, then win the ACC tournament. Final seed? Fourth.
What about Georgia Tech? 22-8 record (9-7 in conference) heading into the ACC tournament. Same RPI as MSU. 7-6 against top 50 RPI teams and four more RPI top 100 games than MSU before heading into the ACC tournament, where they went 1-1 (against two top 20 RPI teams). 6-4 in their final 10 games. Final seed: a 3 seed.
Is MSU more like Georgia Tech or North Carolina? If MSU wins two games in the Big Ten Tournament, could they make a legitimate claim to a 3 seed?
Matthew S.
Excellent sleuthing, Matthew! But I want to see the wins before I speculate on what seed said wins may secure. Let's wait and see.... ¶ 6:16 AM
Monday, March 06, 2006
Seven postseason thoughts
1. Ohio State is indeed the best team in the Big Ten. But the gap between the Buckeyes and the second-best team (Illinois) isn't nearly as large as it looked just two weeks ago. Terence Dials is a beast--this blog has said so now for two years. But he's a beast on a team that devotes 40 percent of its shots to threes. And over their last three games OSU hit just 21.2 percent of said threes (14 of 66). They got away with it, of course, because they were playing Michigan, Northwestern, and Purdue. But if that kind of shooting continues, it will end their season within the next 20 days, even with a favorable seed: the Buckeyes' strong interior game is fueled by opponents' fear of the three. (Note: The Big Ten did not shoot threes very well this year. As it was, Ohio State's late-season shooting slump came within a whisker of handing the crown for best three-point shooting team over to Penn State. OSU hit 36.8 percent of their threes in conference play, a notably low number for a conference leader. Last year Illinois led the league with a 41.3 mark. And in 2004 Michigan State hit 43.4 percent (!) of their threes in conference play.)
2. Illinois, all of a sudden, has an offense. The numbers say so and, more importantly, our eyes say so. Suddenly there's ball movement, there's decisiveness, and there's pressure on opposing defenses. Outside shooting helps, of course, and the Illini hit 40 percent of their threes over the last three games. But the inside-outside balance of this team (over the last six games Illinois drained over 58 percent of their twos), while not on a par with Ohio State's, gives a team with a strong defense a much better shot in March than does defense alone. (Note: Shaun Pruitt has come further in one year than I, for one, thought he would in four. If your team doesn't have two strong post defenders, the Illini, with Pruitt and of course James Augustine, will likely expose that state of affairs.)
3. Iowa has the best defense in the Big Ten. While their perimeter D is merely average, the Hawkeyes don't let you bring the ball in the paint and they limit you to one shot. This D is better at home than on the road, it's true, but there are no more such games, of either kind, on the schedule--only neutral courts. So who'd be a tough match up for an offensively challenged and slightly turnover-prone Hawkeye team in the tournament? Maybe someone who can run, force turnovers, get into the Iowa bench, and hit their threes. Like, say, a certain SEC team coached by a former Iowa assistant.
4. Wisconsin--perhaps fatigued, possibly overmatched, definitely thin--hasn't held an opponent to less than one point per possession in almost a month, since playing pre-resignation/resurrection Indiana in Madison. For a team whose offense consists of Alando Tucker and little else, that level of D--and the seed it will give the Badgers in the NCAA tournament--means Bo Ryan will need to be coaching on all cylinders just to get UW past the first weekend.
5. Indiana, as a result of its win against Michigan Saturday in Ann Arbor, will be recognized by the College Basketball Hall of Fame at a ceremony later today for playing the ugliest game ever played by a winning team in over 100 years of organized intercollegiate basketball. (This game featured 44 turnovers, one of which occurred when a pass hit the scoreboard above the court.) In fact, I have it on good authority that Big Ten officials seriously considered crediting both teams with two losses for this affront to the eyes. But, hey, it's a W and the Hoosiers appear to have dancing in their future--who would've thought that a couple weeks ago? Can they do any damage in March? Their negative efficiency margin in conference play says no. (Of course, that's what West Virginia's negative efficiency margin in Big East play said last year--and all the Mountaineers did was come within a free throw of the Final Four.)
6. Michigan State will, we think, get Matt Trannon back for the Big Ten tournament, where a couple wins or even more could quite plausibly happen and would definitely revive the Izzo's-time-of-year talk. One thing to remember, though: State may be assigned a tougher seed than they've seen in a while. (Remember the sweet draw they had as a 1 in the South in 2001?) In fact, a 7- or 8-seed (or a 9- or 10-seed, but that shouldn't happen) would mean they might well see one of the following the first weekend: Connecticut, Villanova, Duke, Memphis, Texas, or Gonzaga. (And even that, of course, assumes a first-round win.)
7. Michigan is about where Indiana was last year heading into the Big Ten tournament: a limbo that's made all the worse for being so ill-defined. In any case, I wouldn't recommend a loss Thursday against Minnesota. So say they win Thursday: Lester Abram is said to be ready to return. But unless Abram can catalyze a defensive 180 all by his lonesome, this team is going to find it very difficult to go anywhere--in Indy or beyond--allowing as many points per possession as does Purdue.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated and are now FINAL! Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy.
The brackets are set!
Here's what we'll see this weekend at the Big Ten tournament in Indy (all times ET)....
Thursday
(8) Penn State vs. (9) Northwestern (ESPN2, noon)
(7) Michigan vs. (10) Minnesota (ESPN2, 2:30pm)
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) Purdue (ESPN2, 6pm)
Friday
(1) Ohio State vs. Penn State-Northwestern winner (ESPN, noon)
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Indiana (ESPN, 2:30pm)
(2) Iowa vs. Michigan-Minnesota winner (ESPN Plus, 6:40pm)
(3) Illinois vs. Michigan State-Purdue winner (ESPN Plus, 9:10pm)
Saturday
2-3 bracket semifinal (CBS, 1:40pm)
1-4 bracket semifinal (CBS, 4pm)
Sunday
Championship game (CBS, 3:30pm)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Ohio State beat Purdue 76-57 in Columbus to win the Big Ten title outright. The Boilers trailed by just four at the half but, as often was the case this season, saw the game slip away after the intermission. Terence Dials led the Buckeyes with 20 badly needed points--the home team couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat yesterday, hitting only 4 of 24 threes. Gary Ware led all scorers with 25 points. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Saturday!
Illinois beat Michigan State 75-68 in East Lansing. Midway through the second half the Illini broke a 48-all tie by scoring 12 consecutive points, as two threes from Jamar Smith were sandwiched in between two from Dee Brown. For the game Illinois hit 10 of 20 threes. Paul Davis recorded a 21-14 dub-dub and led all scorers. The Spartans played without both Matt Trannon (still sidelined with a broken jaw) and Marquise Gray (out for the rest of the season after breaking a bone in his foot in Thursday night's win over Wisconsin). (Box score.)
Iowa beat Wisconsin 59-44 in Iowa City. Jeff Horner led all scorers with 22 points and Mike Henderson, oddly enough, recorded six assists. No Badger made more shots than he missed. In the final two games of the season at Carver-Hawkeye, Hawkeye opponents (Penn State and Wisconsin) scored just 82 points on 119 offensive possessions--a rate of just 0.69 points per possession. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Michigan 69-67 in Ann Arbor. One-man statistical explosion--for good and evil--Daniel Horton scored 34 points (including a three at the buzzer and 13-of-13 shooting from the line) but turned the ball over six times, as did Marco Killingsworth (alongside, granted, a 19-13 dub-dub). See thought number 5, above, for more. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat Minnesota 57-53 in Evanston. The Gophers missed five of their 19 free throws and coaxed just eight turnovers out of the Wildcats. Such proved to be the difference in yet another close slow game at Welsh-Ryan. Vedran Vukusic led all scorers with 20. (Box score.)
COMING Wednesday!
Media? Coaches? Bah! What savvy fans truly await is the unveiling of the All-Wonk Team (2.0). I can give you this much of a sneak peek....
Last year consensus reigned supreme. The coaches picked Dee Brown, Luther Head, Deron Williams, Mike Wilkinson, and Vincent Grier for first team All-Big Ten. The writers picked Brown, Head, Williams, Wilkinson, and (it's true--they did this) Bracey Wright. I picked Brown, Head, Williams, Wilkinson, and Alan Anderson. So even with three different teams, everyone involved was agreeing 80 percent of the time.
This year, I can tell already, such consensus will not be the case. See you Wednesday.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
If everyone played everyone....
Twice so far this year, I've posted emails from alert reader Ross B., who has, you may recall, outlined the concept of Schedule Independent Wins (SIWs) as follows....
Count me among those who miss the full double round-robin Big Ten schedule.
In 1929, a German mathematician by the name of Ernst Zermelo faced a similar problem when he sought to produce standings for a round-robin chess tournament that was not completed. Zermelo's idea was to assign a numeric rating to each player wherein the probability that Player A might beat Player B is a function of their ratings (and, as later mathematicians modified his system, a "home court advantage" parameter).
The ratings are assigned such that for each player, the sum of the probabilities for each game played equals the number of matches actually won by the player. These ratings summarize both wins and schedule strength as a single number. The higher your rating, the better you've played.
If we calculate this Zermelo rating for each team, we can simulate a 20-game Big Ten schedule by adding up the probability of winning home and away vs. each opponent. This number, which we'll call Schedule Independent Wins, reflects the number of games a team would expect to win over a full 20-game schedule if it continues to play at its current level.
Schedule Independent Wins are to traditional standings what tempo-free stats are to traditional statistics.
Got it? Good. Here are the final numbers from Ross, scaled down from the 20-game round-robin to estimate number of wins in an across-the-board (theoretically) neutral 16-game schedule....
1. Ohio State (11.83)
2. Illinois (11.35)
3. Iowa (10.84)
4. Indiana (9.02)
5. Wisconsin (8.90)
6. Michigan State (8.83)
7. Michigan (8.00)
8. Penn State (5.83)
9. Northwestern (5.83)
10. Minnesota (4.84)
11. Purdue (2.73)
Ross adds:
By subtracting Schedule Independent Wins from actual wins, we can now measure how much each team benefited from the unbalanced schedule: 0 represents a neutral schedule, positive numbers an "easy" schedule:
1. Purdue (0.27)
2. Ohio State (0.17)
3. Northwestern (0.17)
4. Penn State (0.17)
5. Iowa (0.16)
6. Minnesota (0.16)
7. Wisconsin (0.10)
8. Michigan (0.00)
9. Indiana (-0.03)
10. Illinois (-0.35)
11. Michigan State (-0.83)
Indiana and Michigan played essentially neutral schedules. Everyone else received a small boost built on the backs of Illinois and, especially, Michigan State. The Spartans played a total of four games against the bottom four teams, the worst possible draw. Still, the league was so competitive that the worst case schedule cost MSU less than one full game.
The Big Ten's tiebreaking system has much room for improvement. Wisconsin gets the 4-seed over Indiana for a home win over the Hoosiers, without the risk of a return game. Similarly, Iowa gets the 2-seed for a home win over Ohio State, compared to a road loss to the same by Illinois. Instead of focusing on one game, where home advantage often makes the difference, the Big Ten would do better to first look at overall schedule strength.
Fortunately, the title race was not affected by the unbalanced schedule this year. Congratulations to the Ohio State Buckeyes, undisputed Big Ten champions.
Ross B.
Well done, Ross. Thanks. ¶ 6:44 AM
1. Ohio State is indeed the best team in the Big Ten. But the gap between the Buckeyes and the second-best team (Illinois) isn't nearly as large as it looked just two weeks ago. Terence Dials is a beast--this blog has said so now for two years. But he's a beast on a team that devotes 40 percent of its shots to threes. And over their last three games OSU hit just 21.2 percent of said threes (14 of 66). They got away with it, of course, because they were playing Michigan, Northwestern, and Purdue. But if that kind of shooting continues, it will end their season within the next 20 days, even with a favorable seed: the Buckeyes' strong interior game is fueled by opponents' fear of the three. (Note: The Big Ten did not shoot threes very well this year. As it was, Ohio State's late-season shooting slump came within a whisker of handing the crown for best three-point shooting team over to Penn State. OSU hit 36.8 percent of their threes in conference play, a notably low number for a conference leader. Last year Illinois led the league with a 41.3 mark. And in 2004 Michigan State hit 43.4 percent (!) of their threes in conference play.)
2. Illinois, all of a sudden, has an offense. The numbers say so and, more importantly, our eyes say so. Suddenly there's ball movement, there's decisiveness, and there's pressure on opposing defenses. Outside shooting helps, of course, and the Illini hit 40 percent of their threes over the last three games. But the inside-outside balance of this team (over the last six games Illinois drained over 58 percent of their twos), while not on a par with Ohio State's, gives a team with a strong defense a much better shot in March than does defense alone. (Note: Shaun Pruitt has come further in one year than I, for one, thought he would in four. If your team doesn't have two strong post defenders, the Illini, with Pruitt and of course James Augustine, will likely expose that state of affairs.)
3. Iowa has the best defense in the Big Ten. While their perimeter D is merely average, the Hawkeyes don't let you bring the ball in the paint and they limit you to one shot. This D is better at home than on the road, it's true, but there are no more such games, of either kind, on the schedule--only neutral courts. So who'd be a tough match up for an offensively challenged and slightly turnover-prone Hawkeye team in the tournament? Maybe someone who can run, force turnovers, get into the Iowa bench, and hit their threes. Like, say, a certain SEC team coached by a former Iowa assistant.
4. Wisconsin--perhaps fatigued, possibly overmatched, definitely thin--hasn't held an opponent to less than one point per possession in almost a month, since playing pre-resignation/resurrection Indiana in Madison. For a team whose offense consists of Alando Tucker and little else, that level of D--and the seed it will give the Badgers in the NCAA tournament--means Bo Ryan will need to be coaching on all cylinders just to get UW past the first weekend.
5. Indiana, as a result of its win against Michigan Saturday in Ann Arbor, will be recognized by the College Basketball Hall of Fame at a ceremony later today for playing the ugliest game ever played by a winning team in over 100 years of organized intercollegiate basketball. (This game featured 44 turnovers, one of which occurred when a pass hit the scoreboard above the court.) In fact, I have it on good authority that Big Ten officials seriously considered crediting both teams with two losses for this affront to the eyes. But, hey, it's a W and the Hoosiers appear to have dancing in their future--who would've thought that a couple weeks ago? Can they do any damage in March? Their negative efficiency margin in conference play says no. (Of course, that's what West Virginia's negative efficiency margin in Big East play said last year--and all the Mountaineers did was come within a free throw of the Final Four.)
6. Michigan State will, we think, get Matt Trannon back for the Big Ten tournament, where a couple wins or even more could quite plausibly happen and would definitely revive the Izzo's-time-of-year talk. One thing to remember, though: State may be assigned a tougher seed than they've seen in a while. (Remember the sweet draw they had as a 1 in the South in 2001?) In fact, a 7- or 8-seed (or a 9- or 10-seed, but that shouldn't happen) would mean they might well see one of the following the first weekend: Connecticut, Villanova, Duke, Memphis, Texas, or Gonzaga. (And even that, of course, assumes a first-round win.)
7. Michigan is about where Indiana was last year heading into the Big Ten tournament: a limbo that's made all the worse for being so ill-defined. In any case, I wouldn't recommend a loss Thursday against Minnesota. So say they win Thursday: Lester Abram is said to be ready to return. But unless Abram can catalyze a defensive 180 all by his lonesome, this team is going to find it very difficult to go anywhere--in Indy or beyond--allowing as many points per possession as does Purdue.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated and are now FINAL! Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy.
The brackets are set!
Here's what we'll see this weekend at the Big Ten tournament in Indy (all times ET)....
Thursday
(8) Penn State vs. (9) Northwestern (ESPN2, noon)
(7) Michigan vs. (10) Minnesota (ESPN2, 2:30pm)
(6) Michigan State vs. (11) Purdue (ESPN2, 6pm)
Friday
(1) Ohio State vs. Penn State-Northwestern winner (ESPN, noon)
(4) Wisconsin vs. (5) Indiana (ESPN, 2:30pm)
(2) Iowa vs. Michigan-Minnesota winner (ESPN Plus, 6:40pm)
(3) Illinois vs. Michigan State-Purdue winner (ESPN Plus, 9:10pm)
Saturday
2-3 bracket semifinal (CBS, 1:40pm)
1-4 bracket semifinal (CBS, 4pm)
Sunday
Championship game (CBS, 3:30pm)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Ohio State beat Purdue 76-57 in Columbus to win the Big Ten title outright. The Boilers trailed by just four at the half but, as often was the case this season, saw the game slip away after the intermission. Terence Dials led the Buckeyes with 20 badly needed points--the home team couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat yesterday, hitting only 4 of 24 threes. Gary Ware led all scorers with 25 points. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Saturday!
Illinois beat Michigan State 75-68 in East Lansing. Midway through the second half the Illini broke a 48-all tie by scoring 12 consecutive points, as two threes from Jamar Smith were sandwiched in between two from Dee Brown. For the game Illinois hit 10 of 20 threes. Paul Davis recorded a 21-14 dub-dub and led all scorers. The Spartans played without both Matt Trannon (still sidelined with a broken jaw) and Marquise Gray (out for the rest of the season after breaking a bone in his foot in Thursday night's win over Wisconsin). (Box score.)
Iowa beat Wisconsin 59-44 in Iowa City. Jeff Horner led all scorers with 22 points and Mike Henderson, oddly enough, recorded six assists. No Badger made more shots than he missed. In the final two games of the season at Carver-Hawkeye, Hawkeye opponents (Penn State and Wisconsin) scored just 82 points on 119 offensive possessions--a rate of just 0.69 points per possession. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Michigan 69-67 in Ann Arbor. One-man statistical explosion--for good and evil--Daniel Horton scored 34 points (including a three at the buzzer and 13-of-13 shooting from the line) but turned the ball over six times, as did Marco Killingsworth (alongside, granted, a 19-13 dub-dub). See thought number 5, above, for more. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat Minnesota 57-53 in Evanston. The Gophers missed five of their 19 free throws and coaxed just eight turnovers out of the Wildcats. Such proved to be the difference in yet another close slow game at Welsh-Ryan. Vedran Vukusic led all scorers with 20. (Box score.)
COMING Wednesday!
Media? Coaches? Bah! What savvy fans truly await is the unveiling of the All-Wonk Team (2.0). I can give you this much of a sneak peek....
Last year consensus reigned supreme. The coaches picked Dee Brown, Luther Head, Deron Williams, Mike Wilkinson, and Vincent Grier for first team All-Big Ten. The writers picked Brown, Head, Williams, Wilkinson, and (it's true--they did this) Bracey Wright. I picked Brown, Head, Williams, Wilkinson, and Alan Anderson. So even with three different teams, everyone involved was agreeing 80 percent of the time.
This year, I can tell already, such consensus will not be the case. See you Wednesday.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
If everyone played everyone....
Twice so far this year, I've posted emails from alert reader Ross B., who has, you may recall, outlined the concept of Schedule Independent Wins (SIWs) as follows....
Count me among those who miss the full double round-robin Big Ten schedule.
In 1929, a German mathematician by the name of Ernst Zermelo faced a similar problem when he sought to produce standings for a round-robin chess tournament that was not completed. Zermelo's idea was to assign a numeric rating to each player wherein the probability that Player A might beat Player B is a function of their ratings (and, as later mathematicians modified his system, a "home court advantage" parameter).
The ratings are assigned such that for each player, the sum of the probabilities for each game played equals the number of matches actually won by the player. These ratings summarize both wins and schedule strength as a single number. The higher your rating, the better you've played.
If we calculate this Zermelo rating for each team, we can simulate a 20-game Big Ten schedule by adding up the probability of winning home and away vs. each opponent. This number, which we'll call Schedule Independent Wins, reflects the number of games a team would expect to win over a full 20-game schedule if it continues to play at its current level.
Schedule Independent Wins are to traditional standings what tempo-free stats are to traditional statistics.
Got it? Good. Here are the final numbers from Ross, scaled down from the 20-game round-robin to estimate number of wins in an across-the-board (theoretically) neutral 16-game schedule....
1. Ohio State (11.83)
2. Illinois (11.35)
3. Iowa (10.84)
4. Indiana (9.02)
5. Wisconsin (8.90)
6. Michigan State (8.83)
7. Michigan (8.00)
8. Penn State (5.83)
9. Northwestern (5.83)
10. Minnesota (4.84)
11. Purdue (2.73)
Ross adds:
By subtracting Schedule Independent Wins from actual wins, we can now measure how much each team benefited from the unbalanced schedule: 0 represents a neutral schedule, positive numbers an "easy" schedule:
1. Purdue (0.27)
2. Ohio State (0.17)
3. Northwestern (0.17)
4. Penn State (0.17)
5. Iowa (0.16)
6. Minnesota (0.16)
7. Wisconsin (0.10)
8. Michigan (0.00)
9. Indiana (-0.03)
10. Illinois (-0.35)
11. Michigan State (-0.83)
Indiana and Michigan played essentially neutral schedules. Everyone else received a small boost built on the backs of Illinois and, especially, Michigan State. The Spartans played a total of four games against the bottom four teams, the worst possible draw. Still, the league was so competitive that the worst case schedule cost MSU less than one full game.
The Big Ten's tiebreaking system has much room for improvement. Wisconsin gets the 4-seed over Indiana for a home win over the Hoosiers, without the risk of a return game. Similarly, Iowa gets the 2-seed for a home win over Ohio State, compared to a road loss to the same by Illinois. Instead of focusing on one game, where home advantage often makes the difference, the Big Ten would do better to first look at overall schedule strength.
Fortunately, the title race was not affected by the unbalanced schedule this year. Congratulations to the Ohio State Buckeyes, undisputed Big Ten champions.
Ross B.
Well done, Ross. Thanks. ¶ 6:44 AM
2006 Big Ten team tempo-free stats (conference games only)
Offensive efficiency
Defensive efficiency
Efficiency margin
Effective FG pct. & opp. eFG pct.
3FG pct. & opp. 3FG pct.
2FG pct. & opp. 2FG pct.
TO pct. & opp. TO pct.
Offensive rebound pct.
Defensive rebound pct.
Pace: possessions per 40 min.
¶ 5:55 AM
Offensive efficiency
Defensive efficiency
Efficiency margin
Effective FG pct. & opp. eFG pct.
3FG pct. & opp. 3FG pct.
2FG pct. & opp. 2FG pct.
TO pct. & opp. TO pct.
Offensive rebound pct.
Defensive rebound pct.
Pace: possessions per 40 min.
¶ 5:55 AM
Offensive efficiency: points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (1.11)
2. Michigan State (1.06)
3. Michigan (1.06)
4. Illinois (1.06)
5. Wisconsin (1.03)
6. Penn State (1.02)
7. Iowa (1.00)
8. Indiana (0.99)
9. Northwestern (0.97)
10. Minnesota (0.96)
11. Purdue (0.95) ¶ 5:00 AM
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (1.11)
2. Michigan State (1.06)
3. Michigan (1.06)
4. Illinois (1.06)
5. Wisconsin (1.03)
6. Penn State (1.02)
7. Iowa (1.00)
8. Indiana (0.99)
9. Northwestern (0.97)
10. Minnesota (0.96)
11. Purdue (0.95) ¶ 5:00 AM
Defensive efficiency: opponent points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
Conference games only
1. Iowa (0.94)
2. Illinois (0.96)
3. Ohio State (0.97)
4. Wisconsin (0.98)
5. Indiana (1.02)
6. Minnesota (1.02)
7. Michigan State (1.03)
8. Northwestern (1.04)
9. Michigan (1.07)
10. Purdue (1.07)
11. Penn State (1.13) ¶ 4:50 AM
Conference games only
1. Iowa (0.94)
2. Illinois (0.96)
3. Ohio State (0.97)
4. Wisconsin (0.98)
5. Indiana (1.02)
6. Minnesota (1.02)
7. Michigan State (1.03)
8. Northwestern (1.04)
9. Michigan (1.07)
10. Purdue (1.07)
11. Penn State (1.13) ¶ 4:50 AM
Efficiency margin: points per possession (PPP) minus opponent PPP (more about these stats)
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (+0.14)
2. Illinois (+0.10)
3. Iowa (+0.06)
4. Wisconsin (+0.05)
5. Michigan State (+0.03)
6. Michigan (-0.01)
7. Indiana (-0.03)
8. Minnesota (-0.06)
9. Northwestern (-0.07)
10. Penn State (-0.11)
11. Purdue (-0.12) ¶ 4:40 AM
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (+0.14)
2. Illinois (+0.10)
3. Iowa (+0.06)
4. Wisconsin (+0.05)
5. Michigan State (+0.03)
6. Michigan (-0.01)
7. Indiana (-0.03)
8. Minnesota (-0.06)
9. Northwestern (-0.07)
10. Penn State (-0.11)
11. Purdue (-0.12) ¶ 4:40 AM
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.)
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (54.1)
2. Michigan (52.9)
3. Northwestern (52.1)
4. Michigan State (52.0)
5. Illinois (50.7)
6. Purdue (50.5)
7. Indiana (50.1)
8. Iowa (49.1)
9. Wisconsin (48.4)
10. Penn State (48.3)
11. Minnesota (46.2)
Opponent eFG pct.
Conference games only
1. Wisconsin (46.6)
2. Iowa (47.0)
3. Illinois (47.1)
4. Ohio State (48.2)
5. Michigan State (50.2)
6. Minnesota (50.4)
7. Purdue (51.3)
8. Indiana (51.3)
9. Northwestern (52.3)
10. Michigan (53.3)
11. Penn State (56.9) ¶ 4:30 AM
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (54.1)
2. Michigan (52.9)
3. Northwestern (52.1)
4. Michigan State (52.0)
5. Illinois (50.7)
6. Purdue (50.5)
7. Indiana (50.1)
8. Iowa (49.1)
9. Wisconsin (48.4)
10. Penn State (48.3)
11. Minnesota (46.2)
Opponent eFG pct.
Conference games only
1. Wisconsin (46.6)
2. Iowa (47.0)
3. Illinois (47.1)
4. Ohio State (48.2)
5. Michigan State (50.2)
6. Minnesota (50.4)
7. Purdue (51.3)
8. Indiana (51.3)
9. Northwestern (52.3)
10. Michigan (53.3)
11. Penn State (56.9) ¶ 4:30 AM
3FG pct.
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (36.8)
2. Penn State (36.7)
3. Michigan (36.6)
4. Indiana (36.2)
5. Michigan State (34.9)
6. Wisconsin (34.7)
7. Iowa (34.6)
8. Illinois (34.0)
9. Northwestern (33.9)
10. Purdue (33.8)
11. Minnesota (31.2)
Opponent 3FG pct.
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (28.3)
2. Indiana (31.9)
3. Illinois (33.8)
4. Northwestern (34.4)
5. Wisconsin (34.5)
6. Iowa (34.8)
7. Minnesota (35.1)
8. Michigan State (36.5)
9. Purdue (36.6)
10. Penn State (37.4)
11. Michigan (39.3) ¶ 4:20 AM
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (36.8)
2. Penn State (36.7)
3. Michigan (36.6)
4. Indiana (36.2)
5. Michigan State (34.9)
6. Wisconsin (34.7)
7. Iowa (34.6)
8. Illinois (34.0)
9. Northwestern (33.9)
10. Purdue (33.8)
11. Minnesota (31.2)
Opponent 3FG pct.
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (28.3)
2. Indiana (31.9)
3. Illinois (33.8)
4. Northwestern (34.4)
5. Wisconsin (34.5)
6. Iowa (34.8)
7. Minnesota (35.1)
8. Michigan State (36.5)
9. Purdue (36.6)
10. Penn State (37.4)
11. Michigan (39.3) ¶ 4:20 AM
2FG pct.
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (53.4)
2. Northwestern (53.2)
3. Michigan State (51.8)
4. Michigan (51.8)
5. Illinois (50.6)
6. Purdue (50.4)
7. Iowa (47.8)
8. Indiana (46.8)
9. Wisconsin (46.6)
10. Minnesota (46.0)
11. Penn State (44.8)
Opponent 2FG pct.
Conference games only
1. Iowa (43.9)
2. Wisconsin (44.5)
3. Illinois (45.2)
4. Michigan State (47.9)
5. Purdue (49.3)
6. Minnesota (49.3)
7. Michigan (50.5)
8. Ohio State (50.7)
9. Northwestern (52.7)
10. Indiana (53.0)
11. Penn State (57.6) ¶ 4:10 AM
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (53.4)
2. Northwestern (53.2)
3. Michigan State (51.8)
4. Michigan (51.8)
5. Illinois (50.6)
6. Purdue (50.4)
7. Iowa (47.8)
8. Indiana (46.8)
9. Wisconsin (46.6)
10. Minnesota (46.0)
11. Penn State (44.8)
Opponent 2FG pct.
Conference games only
1. Iowa (43.9)
2. Wisconsin (44.5)
3. Illinois (45.2)
4. Michigan State (47.9)
5. Purdue (49.3)
6. Minnesota (49.3)
7. Michigan (50.5)
8. Ohio State (50.7)
9. Northwestern (52.7)
10. Indiana (53.0)
11. Penn State (57.6) ¶ 4:10 AM
Turnover percentage
TOs/team possessions
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (16.8)
2. Wisconsin (17.2)
3. Illinois (18.2)
4. Penn State (19.4)
5. Michigan State (20.4)
6. Minnesota (21.3)
7. Northwestern (21.5)
8. Iowa (21.6)
9. Indiana (22.0)
10. Michigan (24.1)
11. Purdue (24.9)
Opponent turnover percentage
Conference games only
1. Northwestern (23.0)
2. Indiana (22.2)
3. Minnesota (21.8)
4. Ohio State (21.4)
5. Penn State (21.3)
6. Illinois (21.1)
7. Michigan (20.4)
8. Iowa (20.1)
9. Purdue (19.6)
10. Wisconsin (18.6)
11. Michigan State (18.4) ¶ 4:00 AM
TOs/team possessions
Conference games only
1. Ohio State (16.8)
2. Wisconsin (17.2)
3. Illinois (18.2)
4. Penn State (19.4)
5. Michigan State (20.4)
6. Minnesota (21.3)
7. Northwestern (21.5)
8. Iowa (21.6)
9. Indiana (22.0)
10. Michigan (24.1)
11. Purdue (24.9)
Opponent turnover percentage
Conference games only
1. Northwestern (23.0)
2. Indiana (22.2)
3. Minnesota (21.8)
4. Ohio State (21.4)
5. Penn State (21.3)
6. Illinois (21.1)
7. Michigan (20.4)
8. Iowa (20.1)
9. Purdue (19.6)
10. Wisconsin (18.6)
11. Michigan State (18.4) ¶ 4:00 AM
Offensive rebound pct.
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only
1. Michigan (36.5)
2. Penn State (34.4)
3. Minnesota (33.8)
4. Illinois (33.5)
5. Michigan State (33.1)
6. Purdue (32.3)
7. Wisconsin (32.2)
8. Indiana (31.4)
9. Iowa (31.1)
10. Ohio State (29.5)
11. Northwestern (22.0) ¶ 3:50 AM
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only
1. Michigan (36.5)
2. Penn State (34.4)
3. Minnesota (33.8)
4. Illinois (33.5)
5. Michigan State (33.1)
6. Purdue (32.3)
7. Wisconsin (32.2)
8. Indiana (31.4)
9. Iowa (31.1)
10. Ohio State (29.5)
11. Northwestern (22.0) ¶ 3:50 AM
Defensive rebound pct.
Dreb pct. = Drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only
1. Iowa (72.0)
2. Illinois (71.6)
3. Michigan State (71.1)
4. Wisconsin (69.0)
5. Minnesota (68.7)
6. Indiana (68.5)
7. Michigan (66.9)
8. Purdue (66.1)
9. Ohio State (66.1)
10. Northwestern (64.2)
11. Penn State (63.9) ¶ 3:40 AM
Dreb pct. = Drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only
1. Iowa (72.0)
2. Illinois (71.6)
3. Michigan State (71.1)
4. Wisconsin (69.0)
5. Minnesota (68.7)
6. Indiana (68.5)
7. Michigan (66.9)
8. Purdue (66.1)
9. Ohio State (66.1)
10. Northwestern (64.2)
11. Penn State (63.9) ¶ 3:40 AM
Possessions per 40 min.
Conference games only
1. Michigan (66.6)
2. Indiana (66.4)
3. Wisconsin (65.3)
4. Ohio State (65.1)
5. Iowa (64.9)
6. Purdue (64.8)
7. Michigan State (64.7)
8. Penn State (62.6)
9. Minnesota (62.4)
10. Illinois (62.3)
11. Northwestern (58.8) ¶ 3:30 AM
Conference games only
1. Michigan (66.6)
2. Indiana (66.4)
3. Wisconsin (65.3)
4. Ohio State (65.1)
5. Iowa (64.9)
6. Purdue (64.8)
7. Michigan State (64.7)
8. Penn State (62.6)
9. Minnesota (62.4)
10. Illinois (62.3)
11. Northwestern (58.8) ¶ 3:30 AM
Friday, March 03, 2006
Latest in a series: how good is Michigan State?
Good enough to beat Wisconsin 74-65 in East Lansing last night, even without Matt Trannon. Paul Davis picked up two fouls before the first TV timeout but it didn't matter. He led the Spartans with 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Alando Tucker scored 23 on 16 shots for the Badgers. Kammron Taylor, picking a really bad time to do a reenactment of the North Dakota State game, went 4-of-18 from the floor. Turnovers were even and Wisconsin actually had a slight edge on the boards--the visitors just couldn't get the ball in the basket (4-of-18 on their threes).
The Spartans, I trust, will be favored in tomorrow's game against Illinois at the Breslin Center, with or without Trannon (who is out with a broken jaw suffered in the Michigan game two weeks ago--he's expected back for the Big Ten tournament and may even play tomorrow). Let's go best-case here and say the Spartans win tomorrow. That would leave them 21-9 overall and 9-7 in conference heading into the Big Ten tournament. How far can they go in March?
However far it is, State will indeed need Trannon along for the ride. For a guy borrowed annually from the football team who averages less than five points a game, he is, in fact, important--every bit as important as Tom Izzo's been saying he is. The (in-conference) numbers with and without Trannon speak of a defensive collapse without him:
MSU defense with Trannon: 0.99 opponent points per possession
MSU defense without Trannon: 1.13 opponent points per possession
Granted, the "without Trannon" sample size is pretty small--just three games. (I've counted the Michigan game in East Lansing as "with Trannon," since his injury occurred with about five minutes left to play.) And, coincidentally enough, one of the teams the Spartans played without Trannon, Ohio State, just happens to have the best offense in the league--that alone will skew your numbers. Still, even with these caveats, what has MSU's D looked like without Trannon?
Opponents are shooting a little better when they don't have to play against Trannon. And they're doing a little better on their own offensive glass in Trannon's absence. But the real difference is in turnovers. Even with Trannon on the floor, mind you, opponents don't turn the ball over very often against Michigan State (19.8 turnovers per 100 possessions). But without Trannon in the game, opponents almost never turn the ball over against Michigan State (14.2 TOs per 100).
Not that Trannon is a particularly fearsome guy when it comes to steals (though he does indeed lead the Spartans' starters in steals per possession). But he appears to have a direct influence on how his entire team plays on D: much more aggressively, much less passively.
Keep in mind the Spartan defense even with Trannon isn't exactly spectacular. But without him it's truly worrisome.
Handy forecasting tip for Michigan State in March!
Ignore the Spartans' performance in the Big Ten tournament. Entirely. I don't care if they lose to Purdue by 50, ignore it. Last year State lost to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals and everyone wailed and moaned about how the mighty had fallen. ("A legacy of championship failure," proclaimed one Detroit columnist after the Hawkeyes' win.) The Spartans then went on to the Final Four.
Same deal, pretty much, in 2001: a loss in the quarterfinals to Penn State, followed by a trip to the Final Four. (In other words, the Spartans haven't gone to the Final Four without losing in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament since their run to the national championship in 2000.) Ignore whatever Michigan State does next week.
MSU-Wisconsin links
Tom Izzo heaped praise on his "big three" of Davis, Mo Ager, and Shannon Brown: "When the Big Three play well, that's a lot better than a Big Two or a Big One on some teams." Ager scored 12 points in the final five minutes after sitting much of the second half with foul trouble: "I told coach I had to make up for the time I missed." "That's the ballgame right in there," Bo Ryan said of that stretch....Izzo says that while he of course doesn't want to risk further injury to Matt Trannon's jaw, "we're trying to push the envelope a little bit" with the power forward's recovery time....Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz wins this morning's Bold Topical Iconoclast Award for devoting his day-after piece to...Goran Suton? (Next column: Jason Aerts!)...Kammron Taylor blamed himself for his 4-of-18 effort: "I was trying to force the issue too much." Alando Tucker had praise for the opponent: "Paul Davis was tough. He was a force the whole game." (Box score.)
All-Wonk Team (2.0)--the official ballot
I'll be selecting my All-Wonk Team next week and the five players I pick will come from the list below. Keeping in mind that, as with any good search, I've endeavored to be as generous as possible with this first cut, here are the candidates. (Listed alphabetically both by and within their school.)
Illinois
James Augustine
Dee Brown
Rich McBride
Indiana
Marco Killingsworth
Marshall Strickland
Robert Vaden
Iowa
Greg Brunner
Adam Haluska
Erek Hansen
Jeff Horner
Michigan
Graham Brown
Dion Harris
Daniel Horton
Courtney Sims
Michigan State
Maurice Ager
Shannon Brown
Paul Davis
Drew Neitzel
Minnesota
Adam Boone
Vincent Grier
Maurice Hargrow
J’son Stamper
Northwestern
Mohamed Hachad
Vedran Vukusic
Ohio State
Jamar Butler
Terence Dials
Je’Kel Foster
Ron Lewis
J.J. Sullinger
Penn State
Geary Claxton
Jamelle Cornley
Travis Parker
Purdue
Bryant Dillon
Matt Kiefer
Chris Lutz
Wisconsin
Brian Butch
Kammron Taylor
Alando Tucker
Even being generous and inclusive, it's still a surprisingly small group--just 38 players. And 33 of them won't make the final cut. Tune in next week!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
As Ken Pomeroy points out this morning, UAB's win last night over Memphis is potentially good news for the Big Ten. The Tigers' hold on a 1-seed suddenly looks less secure--and that could open the door for Ohio State (more likely, I think) or Illinois (less likely), should either win every game from now until Big Ten tournament Sunday. (I say "until" instead of "through" because the Big Ten tournament championship game, unless of course it involves a team that won't otherwise get a bid, seems to have little impact on the NCAA tournament and its seeds. Although, granted, Kentucky did get dinged with their 2-seed last year after getting pummeled by Florida in the SEC tournament's Sunday championship game. We'll see.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan State plays Illinois in East Lansing (CBS, noon ET). It's senior day for Paul Davis, Mo Ager, and Matt Trannon...."The big thing we're playing for is the seeding,'' Bruce Weber says. "Ohio State will probably be the highest seed in the Big Ten. They'll probably get the spot in Dayton. Then you have another one in Michigan, so who's going to be next up?"...Whoever's the 3-seed in next week's Big Ten tournament (likely Illinois) will face a brutal turnaround, playing the last game of the day Friday and (assuming they win) the first semifinal game Saturday. The 1-vs.-4 and 2-vs.-3 semifinal games have been flipped this year at CBS's request. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper gets out front on this here.
Michigan plays Indiana in Ann Arbor. It's senior day for Daniel Horton, Lester Abram, Graham Brown, and Chris Hunter.
Iowa plays Wisconsin in Iowa City. It's senior day for Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Erek Hansen, and Doug Thomas. Fond farewells to Brunner and Horner here and here.
Northwestern plays Minnesota in Evanston. It's senior day for Vedran Vukusic, Mohamed Hachad, and Evan Seacat.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Sunday!
Good enough to beat Wisconsin 74-65 in East Lansing last night, even without Matt Trannon. Paul Davis picked up two fouls before the first TV timeout but it didn't matter. He led the Spartans with 27 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Alando Tucker scored 23 on 16 shots for the Badgers. Kammron Taylor, picking a really bad time to do a reenactment of the North Dakota State game, went 4-of-18 from the floor. Turnovers were even and Wisconsin actually had a slight edge on the boards--the visitors just couldn't get the ball in the basket (4-of-18 on their threes).
The Spartans, I trust, will be favored in tomorrow's game against Illinois at the Breslin Center, with or without Trannon (who is out with a broken jaw suffered in the Michigan game two weeks ago--he's expected back for the Big Ten tournament and may even play tomorrow). Let's go best-case here and say the Spartans win tomorrow. That would leave them 21-9 overall and 9-7 in conference heading into the Big Ten tournament. How far can they go in March?
However far it is, State will indeed need Trannon along for the ride. For a guy borrowed annually from the football team who averages less than five points a game, he is, in fact, important--every bit as important as Tom Izzo's been saying he is. The (in-conference) numbers with and without Trannon speak of a defensive collapse without him:
MSU defense with Trannon: 0.99 opponent points per possession
MSU defense without Trannon: 1.13 opponent points per possession
Granted, the "without Trannon" sample size is pretty small--just three games. (I've counted the Michigan game in East Lansing as "with Trannon," since his injury occurred with about five minutes left to play.) And, coincidentally enough, one of the teams the Spartans played without Trannon, Ohio State, just happens to have the best offense in the league--that alone will skew your numbers. Still, even with these caveats, what has MSU's D looked like without Trannon?
Opponents are shooting a little better when they don't have to play against Trannon. And they're doing a little better on their own offensive glass in Trannon's absence. But the real difference is in turnovers. Even with Trannon on the floor, mind you, opponents don't turn the ball over very often against Michigan State (19.8 turnovers per 100 possessions). But without Trannon in the game, opponents almost never turn the ball over against Michigan State (14.2 TOs per 100).
Not that Trannon is a particularly fearsome guy when it comes to steals (though he does indeed lead the Spartans' starters in steals per possession). But he appears to have a direct influence on how his entire team plays on D: much more aggressively, much less passively.
Keep in mind the Spartan defense even with Trannon isn't exactly spectacular. But without him it's truly worrisome.
Handy forecasting tip for Michigan State in March!
Ignore the Spartans' performance in the Big Ten tournament. Entirely. I don't care if they lose to Purdue by 50, ignore it. Last year State lost to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals and everyone wailed and moaned about how the mighty had fallen. ("A legacy of championship failure," proclaimed one Detroit columnist after the Hawkeyes' win.) The Spartans then went on to the Final Four.
Same deal, pretty much, in 2001: a loss in the quarterfinals to Penn State, followed by a trip to the Final Four. (In other words, the Spartans haven't gone to the Final Four without losing in the quarterfinals of the Big Ten tournament since their run to the national championship in 2000.) Ignore whatever Michigan State does next week.
MSU-Wisconsin links
Tom Izzo heaped praise on his "big three" of Davis, Mo Ager, and Shannon Brown: "When the Big Three play well, that's a lot better than a Big Two or a Big One on some teams." Ager scored 12 points in the final five minutes after sitting much of the second half with foul trouble: "I told coach I had to make up for the time I missed." "That's the ballgame right in there," Bo Ryan said of that stretch....Izzo says that while he of course doesn't want to risk further injury to Matt Trannon's jaw, "we're trying to push the envelope a little bit" with the power forward's recovery time....Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz wins this morning's Bold Topical Iconoclast Award for devoting his day-after piece to...Goran Suton? (Next column: Jason Aerts!)...Kammron Taylor blamed himself for his 4-of-18 effort: "I was trying to force the issue too much." Alando Tucker had praise for the opponent: "Paul Davis was tough. He was a force the whole game." (Box score.)
All-Wonk Team (2.0)--the official ballot
I'll be selecting my All-Wonk Team next week and the five players I pick will come from the list below. Keeping in mind that, as with any good search, I've endeavored to be as generous as possible with this first cut, here are the candidates. (Listed alphabetically both by and within their school.)
Illinois
James Augustine
Dee Brown
Rich McBride
Indiana
Marco Killingsworth
Marshall Strickland
Robert Vaden
Iowa
Greg Brunner
Adam Haluska
Erek Hansen
Jeff Horner
Michigan
Graham Brown
Dion Harris
Daniel Horton
Courtney Sims
Michigan State
Maurice Ager
Shannon Brown
Paul Davis
Drew Neitzel
Minnesota
Adam Boone
Vincent Grier
Maurice Hargrow
J’son Stamper
Northwestern
Mohamed Hachad
Vedran Vukusic
Ohio State
Jamar Butler
Terence Dials
Je’Kel Foster
Ron Lewis
J.J. Sullinger
Penn State
Geary Claxton
Jamelle Cornley
Travis Parker
Purdue
Bryant Dillon
Matt Kiefer
Chris Lutz
Wisconsin
Brian Butch
Kammron Taylor
Alando Tucker
Even being generous and inclusive, it's still a surprisingly small group--just 38 players. And 33 of them won't make the final cut. Tune in next week!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
As Ken Pomeroy points out this morning, UAB's win last night over Memphis is potentially good news for the Big Ten. The Tigers' hold on a 1-seed suddenly looks less secure--and that could open the door for Ohio State (more likely, I think) or Illinois (less likely), should either win every game from now until Big Ten tournament Sunday. (I say "until" instead of "through" because the Big Ten tournament championship game, unless of course it involves a team that won't otherwise get a bid, seems to have little impact on the NCAA tournament and its seeds. Although, granted, Kentucky did get dinged with their 2-seed last year after getting pummeled by Florida in the SEC tournament's Sunday championship game. We'll see.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan State plays Illinois in East Lansing (CBS, noon ET). It's senior day for Paul Davis, Mo Ager, and Matt Trannon...."The big thing we're playing for is the seeding,'' Bruce Weber says. "Ohio State will probably be the highest seed in the Big Ten. They'll probably get the spot in Dayton. Then you have another one in Michigan, so who's going to be next up?"...Whoever's the 3-seed in next week's Big Ten tournament (likely Illinois) will face a brutal turnaround, playing the last game of the day Friday and (assuming they win) the first semifinal game Saturday. The 1-vs.-4 and 2-vs.-3 semifinal games have been flipped this year at CBS's request. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper gets out front on this here.
Michigan plays Indiana in Ann Arbor. It's senior day for Daniel Horton, Lester Abram, Graham Brown, and Chris Hunter.
Iowa plays Wisconsin in Iowa City. It's senior day for Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Erek Hansen, and Doug Thomas. Fond farewells to Brunner and Horner here and here.
Northwestern plays Minnesota in Evanston. It's senior day for Vedran Vukusic, Mohamed Hachad, and Evan Seacat.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Sunday!