Tuesday, January 31, 2006
Home cookin'-as-pity in Ann Arbor
(Yes, I'm posting again on item number 1 on my list of four dullest hoops topics. Hey, the way you alert readers treat it, this ain't so dull after all!)
The story so far....
--Last Wednesday Michigan plays Michigan State in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines gather in many more boards and cough up one fewer turnover than their visitors from East Lansing. But said visitors shoot much better from the floor (58.7 effective FG pct.) than does the home team (46.9 eFG pct.). Michigan wins anyway. Was it their 34-10 advantage in free throw attempts? Hmmm....
--Thursday I link to some articles on UM-MSU. Articles that say: Hmmm....
--Friday I post a Q&A in the form of separate emails from alert readers Nick D. and Terry B. If only someone had data on fouls called in Big Ten play, home vs. road, Nick mused aloud. Terry had that data and found that the home team is whistled for about three fewer fouls a game than the visitors.
And then came the weekend. More emails....
Alert reader Eric F. has refined the Terry B. approach. Eric says: forget about the bottom four! Tossing Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, and Penn State out of the mix yields data that, before this weekend's action, looked like this:
Top seven at-home avg foul differential: -4.94
Top seven at-home avg FTA differential: 8.32
Jinkies! So in Big Ten games not involving the Wildcats, Boilermakers, Gophers, or Nittany Lions, the home team can expect five fewer fouls and about eight more free throws. That's appreciable!
But wait a second. Isn't this all a bit conspiratorial? After all, maybe foul differentials and justice can coincide--and did, in the game between Michigan and Michigan State.
Let's hear from another alert reader!
I think the answer to this particular game is that the officials called a very tight game, which benefited Michigan greatly. The officials cracked down on hand-checking, shoving on rebounds or for post position, and bodying up on players running through screens. All those things that are technically fouls but usually aren’t called are staples of how MSU plays. UM, as everybody knows, is much softer than MSU and doesn’t have a lot of players who throw their bodies around. (The one who does, Graham Brown, was called for several ticky-tack away from the ball fouls, including one for looking at Paul Davis as Davis slipped.)
The officiating was not uneven in the sense of bad calls going in one direction. MSU had some bad calls, but so did UM. Horton was hacked on the wrists on a couple drives, Neitzel palmed the ball twice to free himself for an open layup, and Brown was whistled for the ridiculous aforementioned phantom foul on Davis. The officiating was even, but the decision to call it tight and even as opposed to loose and even benefited Michigan enormously.
Yes, I’m a Michigan fan, but I bet if you watched the game closely you’d see the same thing.
Jon Chait
The New Republic
Wow. Jon Chait. I've been a TNR reader since college and subscriber since, well, employment. Would Walter Lippmann or Herbert Croly have read my blog? Edmund Wilson? (Dare I think it? John Dewey?) You made my day, Jon!
Anyway, as to your email: excellent points. For the sake of discussion let's accept your premise for this particular instance. The general question then becomes: why does the even-handedness so uncannily benefit the home team so often? In other words, why is it we know in advance the UM-MSU game won't be called this way in East Lansing?
Or do we know that? Now comes alert reader, Ph.D., and erstwhile faculty member Matthew S., who decided it was time to put the "significant" back in significance! Matthew looked for home cookin' by parsing box scores from the last 67 games at the Breslin Center and the last 51 games at Crisler. The results will surprise you!
Wielding his alpha level and null hypothesis, Matthew found no statistically significant difference between the number of fouls called on the Spartans and the number whistled on the visitors in the last 67 games in the Breslin Center. Zoinks! No home cookin' in East Lansing? C'mon, Coach Izzo, get on those refs!
Ah, but in Crisler Arena--a different story! A statistically significant 2.6 foul per game advantage. J'accuse!
No, really, what in the name of Brian Ellerbee's going on here? How can Michigan have benefited from home cookin' when the plain fact is that for 49 of the last 51 home games they've been beyond horrific? Is there a sympathy factor at work here? Are Ed Hightower and Ted Hillary busily discussing The Theory of Moral Sentiments before each game?
And so the moral of the story so far is simple. Want home cookin'? Suck!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
COMING this weekend! The recurring festival known as the Do Wonk's Blog for Him Contest!
Your intrepid blogger and the Wonk Wife are escaping for a few days of non-slush-related existence in their prior stomping ground of northern California. Thursday's post will be the last until I return next Wednesday. And that's where you come in!
The Big Ten never escapes! There are games this weekend and I need recaps. You can fill that need!
You know the drill: link to the box score, say who won, drop a few "Ye gods," link to some beat writers, and, voila! It's a recap. Here's your chance to blog without having to do it every day: keep those recaps to 200 words or so and bring 'em on!
First place vs. first place
Wisconsin plays Illinois tonight in Madison (ESPN, 7 ET). Bo Ryan on Alando Tucker: "He is the heart and soul of our team as far as what he brings every day." Ryan has a winning record against every Big Ten team--except Illinois. Profile of Ray Nixon here....Bruce Weber: "It's not do or die with our season. But it is: Are we going to make that step forward, which I've been talking about, trying to challenge our guys?" Dee Brown: "Something has to change or we're going to continue to get blasted on the road....Yeah, it's must-win."
In today's less first place vs. first place venues....
Ohio State beat Florida A&M 95-53 in Columbus last night. (Box score.)
At 1-6 in the Big Ten can Minnesota still make the NCAA tournament? Sunday's win against Indiana has some observers saying yes.
Michigan State big man Paul Davis is still recovering from the elbow to the head he took from teammate Idong Ibok last Friday. Davis received ten stitches and missed Saturday's game against Penn State. He did not practice yesterday and his status for this Saturday's game at Northwestern is uncertain.
Michigan has received a verbal commitment from high school baller Kelvin Grady, a 5-10 point guard from East Grad Rapids, MI....As Elwood P. Dowd said: a little conflict in any discussion is good, shows everyone's participating, no one's being left out....It's a floor wax! "What Michigan has done so far shouldn't have surprised anyone." No, it's a dessert topping! "If you had told me in September that the best team on campus would be the basketball team, I would have punched you and called you Sparty." You make the call!
Iowa wing Adam Haluska is profiled here.
Purdue senior point guard Bryant Dillon is profiled here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
(It'd be easier if everyone played everyone.)
Wonk,
Count me among those who miss the full double round-robin Big Ten schedule.
In 1929, a German mathematician by the name of Ernst Zermelo faced a similar problem when he sought to produce standings for a round-robin chess tournament that was not completed. Zermelo's idea was to assign a numeric rating to each player wherein the probability that Player A might beat Player B is a function of their ratings (and, as later mathematicians modified his system, a "home court advantage" parameter).
The ratings are assigned such that for each player, the sum of the probabilities for each game played equals the number of matches actually won by the player. These ratings summarize both wins and schedule strength as a single number. The higher your rating, the better you've played.
If we calculate this Zermelo rating for each team, we can simulate a 20-game Big Ten schedule by adding up the probability of winning home and away vs. each opponent. This number, which we'll call Schedule Independent Wins, reflects the number of games a team would expect to win over a full 20-game schedule if it continues to play at its current level.
Schedule Independent Wins are to traditional standings what tempo-free stats are to traditional statistics.
Schedule Independent Wins, through Sunday:
1. Michigan St. (15.7)
2. Iowa (15.4)
3. Wisconsin (14.2)
4. Illinois (13.5)
5. Michigan (13.2)
6. Ohio St. (12.3)
7. Indiana (9.5)
8. Penn St. (7.9)
9. Northwestern (5.0)
10. Minnesota (2.3)
11. Purdue (1.1)
Observations:
--Michigan State's schedule has cost them a full game in the standings versus the 5-2 teams. They are the real first place team at this point.
--Indiana is closer to Penn State than they are to the contenders.
--It's even worse for Purdue than the 1-7 record indicates. They've already played the "easy" games, and shouldn't expect to win again.
Ross B.
Indy
A reader from Indy saying "Indiana is closer to Penn State than they are to the contenders"? Ouch! (Though indeed Sunday's performance lends credence to your assertion.)
Keep those SIW updates coming, Ross! Thanks! ¶ 6:03 AM
(Yes, I'm posting again on item number 1 on my list of four dullest hoops topics. Hey, the way you alert readers treat it, this ain't so dull after all!)
The story so far....
--Last Wednesday Michigan plays Michigan State in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines gather in many more boards and cough up one fewer turnover than their visitors from East Lansing. But said visitors shoot much better from the floor (58.7 effective FG pct.) than does the home team (46.9 eFG pct.). Michigan wins anyway. Was it their 34-10 advantage in free throw attempts? Hmmm....
--Thursday I link to some articles on UM-MSU. Articles that say: Hmmm....
--Friday I post a Q&A in the form of separate emails from alert readers Nick D. and Terry B. If only someone had data on fouls called in Big Ten play, home vs. road, Nick mused aloud. Terry had that data and found that the home team is whistled for about three fewer fouls a game than the visitors.
And then came the weekend. More emails....
Alert reader Eric F. has refined the Terry B. approach. Eric says: forget about the bottom four! Tossing Northwestern, Purdue, Minnesota, and Penn State out of the mix yields data that, before this weekend's action, looked like this:
Top seven at-home avg foul differential: -4.94
Top seven at-home avg FTA differential: 8.32
Jinkies! So in Big Ten games not involving the Wildcats, Boilermakers, Gophers, or Nittany Lions, the home team can expect five fewer fouls and about eight more free throws. That's appreciable!
But wait a second. Isn't this all a bit conspiratorial? After all, maybe foul differentials and justice can coincide--and did, in the game between Michigan and Michigan State.
Let's hear from another alert reader!
I think the answer to this particular game is that the officials called a very tight game, which benefited Michigan greatly. The officials cracked down on hand-checking, shoving on rebounds or for post position, and bodying up on players running through screens. All those things that are technically fouls but usually aren’t called are staples of how MSU plays. UM, as everybody knows, is much softer than MSU and doesn’t have a lot of players who throw their bodies around. (The one who does, Graham Brown, was called for several ticky-tack away from the ball fouls, including one for looking at Paul Davis as Davis slipped.)
The officiating was not uneven in the sense of bad calls going in one direction. MSU had some bad calls, but so did UM. Horton was hacked on the wrists on a couple drives, Neitzel palmed the ball twice to free himself for an open layup, and Brown was whistled for the ridiculous aforementioned phantom foul on Davis. The officiating was even, but the decision to call it tight and even as opposed to loose and even benefited Michigan enormously.
Yes, I’m a Michigan fan, but I bet if you watched the game closely you’d see the same thing.
Jon Chait
The New Republic
Wow. Jon Chait. I've been a TNR reader since college and subscriber since, well, employment. Would Walter Lippmann or Herbert Croly have read my blog? Edmund Wilson? (Dare I think it? John Dewey?) You made my day, Jon!
Anyway, as to your email: excellent points. For the sake of discussion let's accept your premise for this particular instance. The general question then becomes: why does the even-handedness so uncannily benefit the home team so often? In other words, why is it we know in advance the UM-MSU game won't be called this way in East Lansing?
Or do we know that? Now comes alert reader, Ph.D., and erstwhile faculty member Matthew S., who decided it was time to put the "significant" back in significance! Matthew looked for home cookin' by parsing box scores from the last 67 games at the Breslin Center and the last 51 games at Crisler. The results will surprise you!
Wielding his alpha level and null hypothesis, Matthew found no statistically significant difference between the number of fouls called on the Spartans and the number whistled on the visitors in the last 67 games in the Breslin Center. Zoinks! No home cookin' in East Lansing? C'mon, Coach Izzo, get on those refs!
Ah, but in Crisler Arena--a different story! A statistically significant 2.6 foul per game advantage. J'accuse!
No, really, what in the name of Brian Ellerbee's going on here? How can Michigan have benefited from home cookin' when the plain fact is that for 49 of the last 51 home games they've been beyond horrific? Is there a sympathy factor at work here? Are Ed Hightower and Ted Hillary busily discussing The Theory of Moral Sentiments before each game?
And so the moral of the story so far is simple. Want home cookin'? Suck!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
COMING this weekend! The recurring festival known as the Do Wonk's Blog for Him Contest!
Your intrepid blogger and the Wonk Wife are escaping for a few days of non-slush-related existence in their prior stomping ground of northern California. Thursday's post will be the last until I return next Wednesday. And that's where you come in!
The Big Ten never escapes! There are games this weekend and I need recaps. You can fill that need!
You know the drill: link to the box score, say who won, drop a few "Ye gods," link to some beat writers, and, voila! It's a recap. Here's your chance to blog without having to do it every day: keep those recaps to 200 words or so and bring 'em on!
First place vs. first place
Wisconsin plays Illinois tonight in Madison (ESPN, 7 ET). Bo Ryan on Alando Tucker: "He is the heart and soul of our team as far as what he brings every day." Ryan has a winning record against every Big Ten team--except Illinois. Profile of Ray Nixon here....Bruce Weber: "It's not do or die with our season. But it is: Are we going to make that step forward, which I've been talking about, trying to challenge our guys?" Dee Brown: "Something has to change or we're going to continue to get blasted on the road....Yeah, it's must-win."
In today's less first place vs. first place venues....
Ohio State beat Florida A&M 95-53 in Columbus last night. (Box score.)
At 1-6 in the Big Ten can Minnesota still make the NCAA tournament? Sunday's win against Indiana has some observers saying yes.
Michigan State big man Paul Davis is still recovering from the elbow to the head he took from teammate Idong Ibok last Friday. Davis received ten stitches and missed Saturday's game against Penn State. He did not practice yesterday and his status for this Saturday's game at Northwestern is uncertain.
Michigan has received a verbal commitment from high school baller Kelvin Grady, a 5-10 point guard from East Grad Rapids, MI....As Elwood P. Dowd said: a little conflict in any discussion is good, shows everyone's participating, no one's being left out....It's a floor wax! "What Michigan has done so far shouldn't have surprised anyone." No, it's a dessert topping! "If you had told me in September that the best team on campus would be the basketball team, I would have punched you and called you Sparty." You make the call!
Iowa wing Adam Haluska is profiled here.
Purdue senior point guard Bryant Dillon is profiled here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
(It'd be easier if everyone played everyone.)
Wonk,
Count me among those who miss the full double round-robin Big Ten schedule.
In 1929, a German mathematician by the name of Ernst Zermelo faced a similar problem when he sought to produce standings for a round-robin chess tournament that was not completed. Zermelo's idea was to assign a numeric rating to each player wherein the probability that Player A might beat Player B is a function of their ratings (and, as later mathematicians modified his system, a "home court advantage" parameter).
The ratings are assigned such that for each player, the sum of the probabilities for each game played equals the number of matches actually won by the player. These ratings summarize both wins and schedule strength as a single number. The higher your rating, the better you've played.
If we calculate this Zermelo rating for each team, we can simulate a 20-game Big Ten schedule by adding up the probability of winning home and away vs. each opponent. This number, which we'll call Schedule Independent Wins, reflects the number of games a team would expect to win over a full 20-game schedule if it continues to play at its current level.
Schedule Independent Wins are to traditional standings what tempo-free stats are to traditional statistics.
Schedule Independent Wins, through Sunday:
1. Michigan St. (15.7)
2. Iowa (15.4)
3. Wisconsin (14.2)
4. Illinois (13.5)
5. Michigan (13.2)
6. Ohio St. (12.3)
7. Indiana (9.5)
8. Penn St. (7.9)
9. Northwestern (5.0)
10. Minnesota (2.3)
11. Purdue (1.1)
Observations:
--Michigan State's schedule has cost them a full game in the standings versus the 5-2 teams. They are the real first place team at this point.
--Indiana is closer to Penn State than they are to the contenders.
--It's even worse for Purdue than the 1-7 record indicates. They've already played the "easy" games, and shouldn't expect to win again.
Ross B.
Indy
A reader from Indy saying "Indiana is closer to Penn State than they are to the contenders"? Ouch! (Though indeed Sunday's performance lends credence to your assertion.)
Keep those SIW updates coming, Ross! Thanks! ¶ 6:03 AM
Monday, January 30, 2006
Wonk's streak of consecutive posts without a Gopher-based bad pun headline continues!
Minnesota beat Indiana 61-42 in Minneapolis yesterday. This game was lost in the first half and it was the IU offense that failed to show up. (Not that the Hoosier D didn't have its moments of ignominy. The words "Adam Boone" and "blow-by for the layup" can now be used together for the first time in recorded history, courtesy of Earl Calloway and four non-helping teammates.)
The game was tied at 7 with a little more than 16 minutes left in the first half. Over the next 23 offensive possessions, Indiana recorded the following numbers:
--Scores on only three of 23 possessions
--Nine points
--0.39 points per possession (0.71 for the game)
--1-for-11 shooting on threes
--Six turnovers
During that same span, the Gophers were merely normal on offense: 24 points on 23 possessions. (But normal is outstanding for the Minnesota offense.) Result: a 34-16 halftime lead for the home team.
Yes, Marco Killingsworth sat for a good part of this time after picking up his second foul with about 12 minutes left in the first half. But it made little difference whether he was on the floor or not. For the first eight minutes, the Gophers showed a lot of 2-3 zone that seemed to baffle or at least immobilize the Hoosiers. On the ensuing possession after Killingsworth left the game, Minnesota immediately switched to a man-to-man--and IU fared no better.
Kudos to Minnesota coach Dan Monson for shaking things up and starting Jamal Abu-Shamala (true freshman and former walk-on) and Zach Puchtel (current walk-on and Harvard transfer). The Gophers appeared almost visibly energized when Abu-Shamala hit a couple early outside shots. ("What's this? We're allowed to score out here?")
As for Indiana, the mantra here at Wonk World HQ remains the same: the D (mediocre) and the offensive rebounding (bad) are more and more looking like givens. So it comes down to making shots. Devoting nearly 41 percent of their FGAs to threes in conference play, the Hoosiers are most certainly a POT. (Only Northwestern devotes more of their attempts to threes.) When the threes are falling, a POT can look unbeatable. But when they're not, a POT looks, well, like Indiana looked yesterday. (Box score.)
Links
Mike Davis says even if his Hoosiers had been hitting their shots (which they weren't), shooting alone isn't enough on the road: "We just hope we go out and make shots (on the road), and you can't go on the road hoping you're going to make shots. You have to go defensively and make plays." Davis also praised a player he didn't know: "I have no idea who No. 32 is. We had him in our scouting report, but here’s a guy who fought Marco for every position. There’s no one who we’ve played this year that’s guarded Marco like that." (No. 32 is Zach Puchtel.)... Dan Monson says he wasn't benching starters or sending a message--he was starting Puchtel and Abu-Shamala, plain and simple: "This could not be a token switch. It had to be that I believe in this. I wanted to get those kids in the flow." Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse wonders aloud if Minnesota's start in Big Ten play might not have been better had J'son Stamper not been sidelined with an injury. St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Tom Powers says: "Clearly this whole recruiting thing is overrated. Monson started two walk-ons against Indiana — Puchtel and Abu-Shamala — and suddenly his team looked good."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated! Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy. BONUS points if you can name the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten (in conference play) without looking.
Yet another undefeated day for the home teams--Saturday!
Michigan beat Wisconsin 85-76 in Ann Arbor. Look at the Wolverines: beating ranked opponents two games in a row and now in a tie for first along with Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Who'd a thunk it? Tommy Amaker's men are getting it done with offense. They hit the offensive glass like uncaged monsters (42.9 offensive rebound pct. Saturday) and they really like to shoot--and make--free throws. Dion Harris led Michigan with 23 points on 5-of-9 shooting from outside the arc. But the real news was that Courtney Sims showed up in the scoring column: 18 points on 8-of-10 shooting. As for the Badgers, their offense was fine (Kammron Taylor led all scorers with 29--UW won't lose many games where they score 1.11 points per possession). They just couldn't stop the Wolverines (1.25 PPP). (Box score.) Can Michigan take this act on the road? Yes and no. Yes: this shaken Illini fan saw the Wolverines post a PPP north of 1.40 in the second half of their game in Champaign. No: no one's doing anything on the road this season. Must have been an email from the Big Ten office.
Iowa beat Ohio State 67-62 in Iowa City. What happens when a team that doesn't do offensive rebounds plays on the road against a very good defensive rebounding team? You get four (count 'em, four) offensive boards for the Buckeyes. That's it. It's amazing they only lost by five. The Hawkeyes are not a very good shooting team (3-of-13 on their threes and 43.7 effective FG pct. on this night, vs. 9-of-24 and 46.7 for OSU), otherwise this one wouldn't have been close. In the game's first three minutes, Terence Dials looked like he was going to have his way offensively with Erek Hansen, thus negating Iowa's primary strength: interior D. Didn't happen--though Dials did record a respectable 16 points. Instead, the Buckeyes fired away from long range. They did OK (36.6 3FG pct.) but if you're going to get only four offensive boards out of 38 chances, you'd better be north of 40 on your threes if you want to win. Adam Haluska had 18 points and Greg Brunner 17 for the Hawks. Ron Lewis led the Buckeyes with 19. (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Penn State 69-60 in East Lansing. Paul Davis missed this game after getting an Idong Ibok elbow to the head in practice the previous day. And State without Davis was not pretty. The home team was beaten on the boards on both ends of the floor and the Nittany Lions led in the Breslin Center with five minutes to play (you're reading that right) 58-57. But the Spartans closed the game on a 12-2 run for the win. Shannon Brown scored 29 points--23 after intermission--to lead MSU. Drew Neitzel added 19 points and hit 5-of-8 threes. Mo Ager tried to shoot over the Penn State zone with a notable lack of success, recording a 2-of-13 on his threes. Geary Claxton had a nice line for the visitors: 19 points and 13 boards. (Box score.)
Illinois beat Purdue 76-58 in Champaign. For the second game in a row, Bruce Weber reacted to a slow start by his team by going small and putting Brian Randle at the 4 alongside three guards. It worked. The Illini beat the Boilers in every facet of the game--rebounding, turnovers, effective FG pct.--everything. Except threes. Purdue hit a notably good 7-of-16 while Illinois recorded a 6-of-20. Don't blame Rich McBride or Jamar Smith. They both went 3-of-6 and McBride led the Illini with 19 points. (Meaning his teammates went 3-of-14 outside the arc. Ye gods.) Even on an off shooting day, however, Dee Brown made plays, to the tune of nine assists. Defining "balanced scoring" down: no Boilermaker scored more than 11 points. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Tune in tomorrow for a continuation of Friday's spirited discussion on foul calls and the home vs. road differentials therein. I was overwhelmed with high-quality responses over the weekend--it merits its own post.
BONUS apology! I didn't know much when I started this little Wonk thing 15 months ago but one thing I knew for certain was that every email from every reader would receive a response. Even if just to say "thanks" to the fans and "auto-reply: mail box full" to the critics.
Alas, changes in the readership's demographics (i.e., there is now a readership) means that stopped happening sometime in December. So here's a lame blanket thank-you: zounds! The emails are for the most part unbelievably good. I'm flattered that you take the time to a) read, and b) wonk back. Thanks. Keep 'em coming. ¶ 6:14 AM
Minnesota beat Indiana 61-42 in Minneapolis yesterday. This game was lost in the first half and it was the IU offense that failed to show up. (Not that the Hoosier D didn't have its moments of ignominy. The words "Adam Boone" and "blow-by for the layup" can now be used together for the first time in recorded history, courtesy of Earl Calloway and four non-helping teammates.)
The game was tied at 7 with a little more than 16 minutes left in the first half. Over the next 23 offensive possessions, Indiana recorded the following numbers:
--Scores on only three of 23 possessions
--Nine points
--0.39 points per possession (0.71 for the game)
--1-for-11 shooting on threes
--Six turnovers
During that same span, the Gophers were merely normal on offense: 24 points on 23 possessions. (But normal is outstanding for the Minnesota offense.) Result: a 34-16 halftime lead for the home team.
Yes, Marco Killingsworth sat for a good part of this time after picking up his second foul with about 12 minutes left in the first half. But it made little difference whether he was on the floor or not. For the first eight minutes, the Gophers showed a lot of 2-3 zone that seemed to baffle or at least immobilize the Hoosiers. On the ensuing possession after Killingsworth left the game, Minnesota immediately switched to a man-to-man--and IU fared no better.
Kudos to Minnesota coach Dan Monson for shaking things up and starting Jamal Abu-Shamala (true freshman and former walk-on) and Zach Puchtel (current walk-on and Harvard transfer). The Gophers appeared almost visibly energized when Abu-Shamala hit a couple early outside shots. ("What's this? We're allowed to score out here?")
As for Indiana, the mantra here at Wonk World HQ remains the same: the D (mediocre) and the offensive rebounding (bad) are more and more looking like givens. So it comes down to making shots. Devoting nearly 41 percent of their FGAs to threes in conference play, the Hoosiers are most certainly a POT. (Only Northwestern devotes more of their attempts to threes.) When the threes are falling, a POT can look unbeatable. But when they're not, a POT looks, well, like Indiana looked yesterday. (Box score.)
Links
Mike Davis says even if his Hoosiers had been hitting their shots (which they weren't), shooting alone isn't enough on the road: "We just hope we go out and make shots (on the road), and you can't go on the road hoping you're going to make shots. You have to go defensively and make plays." Davis also praised a player he didn't know: "I have no idea who No. 32 is. We had him in our scouting report, but here’s a guy who fought Marco for every position. There’s no one who we’ve played this year that’s guarded Marco like that." (No. 32 is Zach Puchtel.)... Dan Monson says he wasn't benching starters or sending a message--he was starting Puchtel and Abu-Shamala, plain and simple: "This could not be a token switch. It had to be that I believe in this. I wanted to get those kids in the flow." Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse wonders aloud if Minnesota's start in Big Ten play might not have been better had J'son Stamper not been sidelined with an injury. St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Tom Powers says: "Clearly this whole recruiting thing is overrated. Monson started two walk-ons against Indiana — Puchtel and Abu-Shamala — and suddenly his team looked good."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated! Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy. BONUS points if you can name the best three-point shooting team in the Big Ten (in conference play) without looking.
Yet another undefeated day for the home teams--Saturday!
Michigan beat Wisconsin 85-76 in Ann Arbor. Look at the Wolverines: beating ranked opponents two games in a row and now in a tie for first along with Illinois, Wisconsin, and Iowa. Who'd a thunk it? Tommy Amaker's men are getting it done with offense. They hit the offensive glass like uncaged monsters (42.9 offensive rebound pct. Saturday) and they really like to shoot--and make--free throws. Dion Harris led Michigan with 23 points on 5-of-9 shooting from outside the arc. But the real news was that Courtney Sims showed up in the scoring column: 18 points on 8-of-10 shooting. As for the Badgers, their offense was fine (Kammron Taylor led all scorers with 29--UW won't lose many games where they score 1.11 points per possession). They just couldn't stop the Wolverines (1.25 PPP). (Box score.) Can Michigan take this act on the road? Yes and no. Yes: this shaken Illini fan saw the Wolverines post a PPP north of 1.40 in the second half of their game in Champaign. No: no one's doing anything on the road this season. Must have been an email from the Big Ten office.
Iowa beat Ohio State 67-62 in Iowa City. What happens when a team that doesn't do offensive rebounds plays on the road against a very good defensive rebounding team? You get four (count 'em, four) offensive boards for the Buckeyes. That's it. It's amazing they only lost by five. The Hawkeyes are not a very good shooting team (3-of-13 on their threes and 43.7 effective FG pct. on this night, vs. 9-of-24 and 46.7 for OSU), otherwise this one wouldn't have been close. In the game's first three minutes, Terence Dials looked like he was going to have his way offensively with Erek Hansen, thus negating Iowa's primary strength: interior D. Didn't happen--though Dials did record a respectable 16 points. Instead, the Buckeyes fired away from long range. They did OK (36.6 3FG pct.) but if you're going to get only four offensive boards out of 38 chances, you'd better be north of 40 on your threes if you want to win. Adam Haluska had 18 points and Greg Brunner 17 for the Hawks. Ron Lewis led the Buckeyes with 19. (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Penn State 69-60 in East Lansing. Paul Davis missed this game after getting an Idong Ibok elbow to the head in practice the previous day. And State without Davis was not pretty. The home team was beaten on the boards on both ends of the floor and the Nittany Lions led in the Breslin Center with five minutes to play (you're reading that right) 58-57. But the Spartans closed the game on a 12-2 run for the win. Shannon Brown scored 29 points--23 after intermission--to lead MSU. Drew Neitzel added 19 points and hit 5-of-8 threes. Mo Ager tried to shoot over the Penn State zone with a notable lack of success, recording a 2-of-13 on his threes. Geary Claxton had a nice line for the visitors: 19 points and 13 boards. (Box score.)
Illinois beat Purdue 76-58 in Champaign. For the second game in a row, Bruce Weber reacted to a slow start by his team by going small and putting Brian Randle at the 4 alongside three guards. It worked. The Illini beat the Boilers in every facet of the game--rebounding, turnovers, effective FG pct.--everything. Except threes. Purdue hit a notably good 7-of-16 while Illinois recorded a 6-of-20. Don't blame Rich McBride or Jamar Smith. They both went 3-of-6 and McBride led the Illini with 19 points. (Meaning his teammates went 3-of-14 outside the arc. Ye gods.) Even on an off shooting day, however, Dee Brown made plays, to the tune of nine assists. Defining "balanced scoring" down: no Boilermaker scored more than 11 points. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Tune in tomorrow for a continuation of Friday's spirited discussion on foul calls and the home vs. road differentials therein. I was overwhelmed with high-quality responses over the weekend--it merits its own post.
BONUS apology! I didn't know much when I started this little Wonk thing 15 months ago but one thing I knew for certain was that every email from every reader would receive a response. Even if just to say "thanks" to the fans and "auto-reply: mail box full" to the critics.
Alas, changes in the readership's demographics (i.e., there is now a readership) means that stopped happening sometime in December. So here's a lame blanket thank-you: zounds! The emails are for the most part unbelievably good. I'm flattered that you take the time to a) read, and b) wonk back. Thanks. Keep 'em coming. ¶ 6:14 AM
Offensive efficiency: points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (1.11)
2. Michigan (1.09)
3. Wisconsin (1.04)
4. Michigan State (1.04)
5. Illinois (1.03)
6. Penn State (1.00)
7. Northwestern (0.98)
8. Indiana (0.97)
9. Iowa (0.97)
10. Purdue (0.94)
11. Minnesota (0.86) ¶ 5:00 AM
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (1.11)
2. Michigan (1.09)
3. Wisconsin (1.04)
4. Michigan State (1.04)
5. Illinois (1.03)
6. Penn State (1.00)
7. Northwestern (0.98)
8. Indiana (0.97)
9. Iowa (0.97)
10. Purdue (0.94)
11. Minnesota (0.86) ¶ 5:00 AM
Defensive efficiency: opponent points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Illinois (0.91)
2. Wisconsin (0.92)
3. Iowa (0.94)
4. Minnesota (0.97)
5. Ohio State (0.98)
6. Michigan State (1.00)
7. Michigan (1.01)
8. Indiana (1.02)
9. Northwestern (1.04)
10. Purdue (1.06)
11. Penn State (1.14) ¶ 4:50 AM
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Illinois (0.91)
2. Wisconsin (0.92)
3. Iowa (0.94)
4. Minnesota (0.97)
5. Ohio State (0.98)
6. Michigan State (1.00)
7. Michigan (1.01)
8. Indiana (1.02)
9. Northwestern (1.04)
10. Purdue (1.06)
11. Penn State (1.14) ¶ 4:50 AM
Efficiency margin: points per possession (PPP) minus opponent PPP (more about these stats)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (+0.13)
2. Illinois (+0.12)
3. Wisconsin (+0.12)
4. Michigan (+0.08)
5. Michigan State (+0.04)
6. Iowa (+0.03)
7. Indiana (-0.05)
8. Northwestern (-0.06)
9. Minnesota (-0.11)
10. Purdue (-0.12)
11. Penn State (-0.14) ¶ 4:40 AM
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (+0.13)
2. Illinois (+0.12)
3. Wisconsin (+0.12)
4. Michigan (+0.08)
5. Michigan State (+0.04)
6. Iowa (+0.03)
7. Indiana (-0.05)
8. Northwestern (-0.06)
9. Minnesota (-0.11)
10. Purdue (-0.12)
11. Penn State (-0.14) ¶ 4:40 AM
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.)
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (54.8)
2. Northwestern (53.5)
3. Michigan (53.2)
4. Penn State (52.1)
5. Michigan State (51.7)
6. Purdue (50.9)
7. Wisconsin (50.2)
8. Indiana (50.1)
9. Illinois (48.1)
10. Iowa (43.7)
11. Minnesota (41.8)
Opponent eFG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Illinois (43.0)
2. Wisconsin (45.0)
3. Iowa (46.7)
4. Ohio State (48.4)
5. Michigan State (48.9)
6. Minnesota (49.5)
7. Michigan (49.9)
8. Indiana (50.4)
9. Purdue (53.0)
10. Penn State (53.8)
11. Northwestern (54.0) ¶ 4:30 AM
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (54.8)
2. Northwestern (53.5)
3. Michigan (53.2)
4. Penn State (52.1)
5. Michigan State (51.7)
6. Purdue (50.9)
7. Wisconsin (50.2)
8. Indiana (50.1)
9. Illinois (48.1)
10. Iowa (43.7)
11. Minnesota (41.8)
Opponent eFG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Illinois (43.0)
2. Wisconsin (45.0)
3. Iowa (46.7)
4. Ohio State (48.4)
5. Michigan State (48.9)
6. Minnesota (49.5)
7. Michigan (49.9)
8. Indiana (50.4)
9. Purdue (53.0)
10. Penn State (53.8)
11. Northwestern (54.0) ¶ 4:30 AM
3FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Purdue (40.2)
2. Ohio State (39.0)
3. Indiana (37.6)
4. Michigan (37.5)
5. Penn State (37.3)
6. Wisconsin (37.2)
7. Michigan State (35.6)
8. Northwestern (35.3)
9. Illinois (34.0)
10. Iowa (27.2)
11. Minnesota (26.8)
Opponent 3FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (27.2)
2. Indiana (28.6)
3. Illinois (31.1)
4. Wisconsin (33.3)
5. Penn State (34.7)
6. Minnesota (35.6)
7. Iowa (36.6)
8. Northwestern (37.0)
9. Michigan State (37.1)
10. Michigan (37.3)
11. Purdue (40.0) ¶ 4:20 AM
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Purdue (40.2)
2. Ohio State (39.0)
3. Indiana (37.6)
4. Michigan (37.5)
5. Penn State (37.3)
6. Wisconsin (37.2)
7. Michigan State (35.6)
8. Northwestern (35.3)
9. Illinois (34.0)
10. Iowa (27.2)
11. Minnesota (26.8)
Opponent 3FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Ohio State (27.2)
2. Indiana (28.6)
3. Illinois (31.1)
4. Wisconsin (33.3)
5. Penn State (34.7)
6. Minnesota (35.6)
7. Iowa (36.6)
8. Northwestern (37.0)
9. Michigan State (37.1)
10. Michigan (37.3)
11. Purdue (40.0) ¶ 4:20 AM
2FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Northwestern (53.9)
2. Ohio State (52.4)
3. Michigan (51.8)
4. Michigan State (50.8)
5. Penn State (50.0)
6. Wisconsin (47.1)
7. Illinois (46.3)
8. Purdue (46.3)
9. Indiana (45.8)
10. Iowa (45.3)
11. Minnesota (42.3)
Opponent 2FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Illinois (41.5)
2. Iowa (41.7)
3. Wisconsin (42.3)
4. Michigan State (45.1)
5. Michigan (46.6)
6. Minnesota (47.4)
7. Purdue (48.9)
8. Ohio State (51.3)
9. Northwestern (53.0)
10. Indiana (53.5)
11. Penn State (55.4) ¶ 4:10 AM
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Northwestern (53.9)
2. Ohio State (52.4)
3. Michigan (51.8)
4. Michigan State (50.8)
5. Penn State (50.0)
6. Wisconsin (47.1)
7. Illinois (46.3)
8. Purdue (46.3)
9. Indiana (45.8)
10. Iowa (45.3)
11. Minnesota (42.3)
Opponent 2FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Illinois (41.5)
2. Iowa (41.7)
3. Wisconsin (42.3)
4. Michigan State (45.1)
5. Michigan (46.6)
6. Minnesota (47.4)
7. Purdue (48.9)
8. Ohio State (51.3)
9. Northwestern (53.0)
10. Indiana (53.5)
11. Penn State (55.4) ¶ 4:10 AM
Turnover percentage
TOs/team possessions
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Wisconsin (16.9)
2. Ohio State (17.3)
3. Illinois (17.9)
4. Michigan State (19.7)
5. Iowa (20.3)
6. Penn State (21.6)
7. Northwestern (21.8)
8. Indiana (22.1)
9. Minnesota (22.2)
10. Michigan (24.3)
11. Purdue (27.6)
Opponent turnover percentage
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Northwestern (24.4)
2. Minnesota (23.4)
3. Michigan (23.2)
4. Indiana (22.5)
5. Wisconsin (21.9)
6. Illinois (21.1)
7. Ohio State (20.6)
8. Michigan State (20.3)
9. Purdue (19.2)
10. Penn State (19.0)
11. Iowa (18.0) ¶ 4:00 AM
TOs/team possessions
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Wisconsin (16.9)
2. Ohio State (17.3)
3. Illinois (17.9)
4. Michigan State (19.7)
5. Iowa (20.3)
6. Penn State (21.6)
7. Northwestern (21.8)
8. Indiana (22.1)
9. Minnesota (22.2)
10. Michigan (24.3)
11. Purdue (27.6)
Opponent turnover percentage
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Northwestern (24.4)
2. Minnesota (23.4)
3. Michigan (23.2)
4. Indiana (22.5)
5. Wisconsin (21.9)
6. Illinois (21.1)
7. Ohio State (20.6)
8. Michigan State (20.3)
9. Purdue (19.2)
10. Penn State (19.0)
11. Iowa (18.0) ¶ 4:00 AM
Offensive rebound pct.
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Michigan (39.0)
2. Penn State (36.1)
3. Illinois (33.3)
4. Purdue (32.9)
5. Minnesota (31.7)
6. Wisconsin (31.5)
7. Iowa (31.1)
8. Indiana (29.9)
9. Ohio State (29.4)
10. Michigan State (29.4)
11. Northwestern (21.8) ¶ 3:50 AM
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Michigan (39.0)
2. Penn State (36.1)
3. Illinois (33.3)
4. Purdue (32.9)
5. Minnesota (31.7)
6. Wisconsin (31.5)
7. Iowa (31.1)
8. Indiana (29.9)
9. Ohio State (29.4)
10. Michigan State (29.4)
11. Northwestern (21.8) ¶ 3:50 AM
Defensive rebound pct.
Dreb pct. = Drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Iowa (74.4)
2. Illinois (71.4)
3. Wisconsin (70.8)
4. Purdue (69.3)
5. Ohio State (68.2)
6. Michigan State (68.0)
7. Penn State (67.8)
8. Minnesota (67.5)
9. Indiana (65.2)
10. Northwestern (63.7)
11. Michigan (63.6) ¶ 3:40 AM
Dreb pct. = Drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Iowa (74.4)
2. Illinois (71.4)
3. Wisconsin (70.8)
4. Purdue (69.3)
5. Ohio State (68.2)
6. Michigan State (68.0)
7. Penn State (67.8)
8. Minnesota (67.5)
9. Indiana (65.2)
10. Northwestern (63.7)
11. Michigan (63.6) ¶ 3:40 AM
Possessions per 40 min.
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Wisconsin (67.7)
2. Iowa (67.2)
3. Ohio State (66.9)
4. Indiana (66.0)
5. Michigan (65.7)
6. Penn State (64.7)
7. Purdue (64.6)
8. Minnesota (64.2)
9. Michigan State (63.8)
10. Illinois (63.8)
11. Northwestern (59.2) ¶ 3:20 AM
Conference games only, thru January 29
1. Wisconsin (67.7)
2. Iowa (67.2)
3. Ohio State (66.9)
4. Indiana (66.0)
5. Michigan (65.7)
6. Penn State (64.7)
7. Purdue (64.6)
8. Minnesota (64.2)
9. Michigan State (63.8)
10. Illinois (63.8)
11. Northwestern (59.2) ¶ 3:20 AM
Friday, January 27, 2006
Welcome to Geek Day II!
Yes, time once again to abandon for a day this blog's never-ending quest to balance words and stats and just cave in to the geek-based clamoring for numbers. For a day.
A taboo is broken!
Discussion will now ensue on item number 1 on my list of the four dullest topics for a hoops blog. My "clearly stated rationale"? The alert readers demand it!...
Hi, Wonk,
Obligatory opening about how much I enjoy your blog. But it's true--you are a daily read. Consider posting on weekends.
Bonus non-obligatory compliment on proper usage of philosophical terms! I'm a former Big Ten undergrad now doing a Ph.D. in philosophy on the west coast. Can't tell you how hard I laugh when you discuss the ontological futility of Penn State basketball.
I have a project for you or one of the other canonical bloggers (You all share data, right? Ah, the unfettered pursuit of truth!) Does anybody have numbers on fouls committed by the home team vs. fouls drawn by the home team in Big Ten games?
This question is prompted by the MSU at UM game! One of the disadvantages of the west coast lifestyle is that I don't get to see many Big Ten games. I really couldn't say if MSU got shafted (26 fouls) or if UM got away with larceny (13 fouls). But I've been hearing a lot of that from some old buddies.
So I did a quick check of Big Ten stats for the young conference season. In the first five conference games, MSU committed 17.2 fouls per game and drew 16.8 against five top 25 teams. UM committed 17.6 fouls per game and drew 15.4 against mixed company. It's early in the season, but my initial impression is: it was extremely unlikely that MSU would commit so many fouls. MSU hasn't been particularly foul-prone and UM hasn't been particularly good at drawing fouls. The data suggests that the game was in that respect an aberration. Some old buddies have been nonplussed by this rather modest answer.
But what we really need is data on fouls called on the home team and fouls called on the visitors. What is the supposed "home court advantage" in terms of fouls and free throw attempts? This is, after all, a sore spot for a lot of fans--it sure would be nice to start such discussions on a more rational basis.
Best,
Nick D.
Good news, Nick! The alert readers have risen to your occasion....
Wonk,
Yes, I realize that officiating is one of the four dullest hoops topics. And I think home cooking is just part of playing on the road in the Big Ten. Everyone plays the same number of home and away games, so it evens out in the end.
Sure, it's frustrating for this Indiana fan when the Hoosiers are on the road--just like it's frustrating for the opponent in Bloomington. However, after seeing the foul differential in the Indiana @ Iowa game and the MSU @ Michigan game, I decided some research was in order.
There have been 34 Big Ten games so far this season. I looked at each one and noted the number of fouls on the home team and the away team. Here are the results:
Total games = 34
Average fouls/game = 33.4
Average away fouls/game = 18.3
Average home fouls/game = 15.2
Average foul differential = 3.1
Visiting team has more fouls in 24 of 34 games.
Foul differential of eight or more in home team's favor in eight games.
Foul differential of eight or more in visiting team's favor in zero games.
Obviously those are some pretty telling numbers. I think the last two are particularly interesting. An eight-foul differential is obviously pretty darn big--it NEVER happens to the home team but it's happened to the road team a whopping 24 percent of the time.
So then I wracked my brain trying to think of an explanation for this difference that didn't involve biased officiating. I came up with one alternative explanation. Obviously, some foul differential is the result of the trailing team fouling late in the game, and since B10 home teams win at a remarkable clip this might account for the difference. Of course, there's a cause-and-effect problem there, because it could be that home teams win at a remarkable clip BECAUSE of the foul differential, so without having data about the fouls committed in the last three or four minutes of the game, I don't know how to test my hypothesis.
Regards,
Terry B.
Well done, Terry! And as far as testing your hypothesis, two thoughts....
First, blogger extraordinaire Ken Pomeroy has looked at the data skew that comes from teams fouling late when they're behind (but not too far behind) and his numbers suggest the activity in question tacks on roughly four FTAs per game for the winning team. (Alert reader Matthew S., take note!) And, second, may I recommend that you call upon that cherished treasure trove of information for possession charters, play-by-play data?
A heartfelt look at officiating, human error, and our hard-wired reluctance to admit mistakes
I've been surprised at the relative lack of blogospheric notice given to an incident that took place in last Saturday's game between Houston and UAB. The incident in question concerns Cougar coach Tom Penders.
Here's a snip from the Houston Chronicle's write up on the game:
With 52.6 seconds to play in the first half, Penders rose to his feet, staggered and then crumpled to his hands and knees on the sideline. After a few moments, Penders went flat as medical personnel rushed to attend to him.
[Referee John] Hampton strolled by, paused and called a technical foul on Penders, apparently thinking the coach was reacting to a questionable intentional foul call on [Houston].
Even when Penders was taken off the court on a stretcher, Hampton refused to rescind the technical. UAB's Carldell Johnson made both free throws for a 48-44 lead.
"I didn't even realize they called a technical on me until I was told later," Penders said. "That's absurd, that's all I can say."
True, the C-USA issued a statement after the fact saying officials had "exercised poor judgment" in upholding the technical foul. ("Poor judgment." That's stating it rather mildly, no? Best blog headline: "IF HE'D DIED, THEY WOULD HAVE HAD TO EJECT HIM.")
But has there ever been a more eloquent demonstration of how tenaciously all of us will maintain that we're right, even when all the evidence (the man was taken off on a stretcher) says we're wrong?
BONUS analysis from the Official Wonk Dad! Referees weren't the only ones who exercised poor judgment Saturday! As the Official Wonk Dad (hi, Dad!) hastens to add: what about UAB coach Mike Anderson?
Think about it: you've just seen Penders carted off the floor on a stretcher. And now your player is shooting a two-shot technical because, um, the opposing coach has a bad heart and collapsed. (We know now that Penders recovered and indeed came back to coach the second half. But the people in the arena didn't know that at the time.) Is this really something you want to get points out of?
Why in the world wouldn't you tell your player: "I want both free throws to go about five feet. If you so much as come near the basket, you're done for the day."
Would have been the class move. Alas.
Tempo-free stats world domination update (TFSWDU)
The contagious diffusion of tempo-free stats continues!
Readers now have the luxury of blogs that track the tempo-free goods for the Big East (Tempo-Free Stats, via Cracked Sidewalks) and the ACC (Blue Devil Hoops). Indefatigable 0.475-wielding bloggers, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
A salute to the Big Ten, courtesy of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Bobbi Roquemore.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan plays Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. How big was the Wolverines' win Wednesday night over Michigan State? "Huge," says Jim Spadafore in this morning's Detroit News....How high will the Wolverines go in the rankings if they win? How quickly will the adulation balloon deflate if they lose at home? Tune in tomorrow!
Iowa plays Ohio State in Iowa City. Members of the Hawkeyes' 1955 and 1956 Final Four teams will be honored at the game.
Illinois plays Purdue in Champaign. Bruce Weber and Matt Painter go way back, starting a little more than 15 years ago when Weber recruited Painter to come play at Purdue.
Michigan State plays Penn State in East Lansing. Observant Spartan observer Dave Dye of the Detroit News joins in the Geek Day theme and says officiating is stacking the deck in favor of the home teams in Big Ten play: "It is unfortunate that road teams seem to be at such a disadvantage from the opening tip on many nights."...Tom Izzo may not go anywhere for a while, granted, but when he does: will he be succeeded by assistant Jim Boylen? Earnest speculation here.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Sunday!
Minnesota plays Indiana in Minneapolis (CBS, 1 ET). He's a former Hoosier. He's also used in this blog as an adjective and a synonym for "inefficient." He's Bracey Wright. Recently summoned from the NBA Development League by the Minnesota Timberwolves, Wright is now on the Wolves roster. This morning he answers "five questions" posed to him by the Indianapolis Star.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Wonk back! was moved upstairs today--scroll up!
But as long as you're down here anyway, allow me to offer a quick observation:
You, the alert readers, are an impressive group. In the span of 24 hours yesterday, I heard from: Terry B. (see above), whose anonymity I will honor but who has a very worthy footer on his email from a blue-chip firm; Nick D., the Ph.D. student in philosophy (see above); Matthew S., an honest to goodness Ph.D. and faculty member in business administration; and even an assistant district attorney from down SEC way. (If "Law & Order" has taught me anything, it's that all ADAs are extremely attractive women. Alert reader Jeff, you have a funny name for a woman!)
And that's just the readers who fess up to what they do. I'm sure the rest of you are ambassadors, U.S. Supreme Court justices, and free-lance donut testers, as well.
Alert and professionally accomplished readers, Wonk salutes you! I'm proud to know I'm crippling workday productivity in such lofty offices. ¶ 5:31 AM
Yes, time once again to abandon for a day this blog's never-ending quest to balance words and stats and just cave in to the geek-based clamoring for numbers. For a day.
A taboo is broken!
Discussion will now ensue on item number 1 on my list of the four dullest topics for a hoops blog. My "clearly stated rationale"? The alert readers demand it!...
Hi, Wonk,
Obligatory opening about how much I enjoy your blog. But it's true--you are a daily read. Consider posting on weekends.
Bonus non-obligatory compliment on proper usage of philosophical terms! I'm a former Big Ten undergrad now doing a Ph.D. in philosophy on the west coast. Can't tell you how hard I laugh when you discuss the ontological futility of Penn State basketball.
I have a project for you or one of the other canonical bloggers (You all share data, right? Ah, the unfettered pursuit of truth!) Does anybody have numbers on fouls committed by the home team vs. fouls drawn by the home team in Big Ten games?
This question is prompted by the MSU at UM game! One of the disadvantages of the west coast lifestyle is that I don't get to see many Big Ten games. I really couldn't say if MSU got shafted (26 fouls) or if UM got away with larceny (13 fouls). But I've been hearing a lot of that from some old buddies.
So I did a quick check of Big Ten stats for the young conference season. In the first five conference games, MSU committed 17.2 fouls per game and drew 16.8 against five top 25 teams. UM committed 17.6 fouls per game and drew 15.4 against mixed company. It's early in the season, but my initial impression is: it was extremely unlikely that MSU would commit so many fouls. MSU hasn't been particularly foul-prone and UM hasn't been particularly good at drawing fouls. The data suggests that the game was in that respect an aberration. Some old buddies have been nonplussed by this rather modest answer.
But what we really need is data on fouls called on the home team and fouls called on the visitors. What is the supposed "home court advantage" in terms of fouls and free throw attempts? This is, after all, a sore spot for a lot of fans--it sure would be nice to start such discussions on a more rational basis.
Best,
Nick D.
Good news, Nick! The alert readers have risen to your occasion....
Wonk,
Yes, I realize that officiating is one of the four dullest hoops topics. And I think home cooking is just part of playing on the road in the Big Ten. Everyone plays the same number of home and away games, so it evens out in the end.
Sure, it's frustrating for this Indiana fan when the Hoosiers are on the road--just like it's frustrating for the opponent in Bloomington. However, after seeing the foul differential in the Indiana @ Iowa game and the MSU @ Michigan game, I decided some research was in order.
There have been 34 Big Ten games so far this season. I looked at each one and noted the number of fouls on the home team and the away team. Here are the results:
Total games = 34
Average fouls/game = 33.4
Average away fouls/game = 18.3
Average home fouls/game = 15.2
Average foul differential = 3.1
Visiting team has more fouls in 24 of 34 games.
Foul differential of eight or more in home team's favor in eight games.
Foul differential of eight or more in visiting team's favor in zero games.
Obviously those are some pretty telling numbers. I think the last two are particularly interesting. An eight-foul differential is obviously pretty darn big--it NEVER happens to the home team but it's happened to the road team a whopping 24 percent of the time.
So then I wracked my brain trying to think of an explanation for this difference that didn't involve biased officiating. I came up with one alternative explanation. Obviously, some foul differential is the result of the trailing team fouling late in the game, and since B10 home teams win at a remarkable clip this might account for the difference. Of course, there's a cause-and-effect problem there, because it could be that home teams win at a remarkable clip BECAUSE of the foul differential, so without having data about the fouls committed in the last three or four minutes of the game, I don't know how to test my hypothesis.
Regards,
Terry B.
Well done, Terry! And as far as testing your hypothesis, two thoughts....
First, blogger extraordinaire Ken Pomeroy has looked at the data skew that comes from teams fouling late when they're behind (but not too far behind) and his numbers suggest the activity in question tacks on roughly four FTAs per game for the winning team. (Alert reader Matthew S., take note!) And, second, may I recommend that you call upon that cherished treasure trove of information for possession charters, play-by-play data?
A heartfelt look at officiating, human error, and our hard-wired reluctance to admit mistakes
I've been surprised at the relative lack of blogospheric notice given to an incident that took place in last Saturday's game between Houston and UAB. The incident in question concerns Cougar coach Tom Penders.
Here's a snip from the Houston Chronicle's write up on the game:
With 52.6 seconds to play in the first half, Penders rose to his feet, staggered and then crumpled to his hands and knees on the sideline. After a few moments, Penders went flat as medical personnel rushed to attend to him.
[Referee John] Hampton strolled by, paused and called a technical foul on Penders, apparently thinking the coach was reacting to a questionable intentional foul call on [Houston].
Even when Penders was taken off the court on a stretcher, Hampton refused to rescind the technical. UAB's Carldell Johnson made both free throws for a 48-44 lead.
"I didn't even realize they called a technical on me until I was told later," Penders said. "That's absurd, that's all I can say."
True, the C-USA issued a statement after the fact saying officials had "exercised poor judgment" in upholding the technical foul. ("Poor judgment." That's stating it rather mildly, no? Best blog headline: "IF HE'D DIED, THEY WOULD HAVE HAD TO EJECT HIM.")
But has there ever been a more eloquent demonstration of how tenaciously all of us will maintain that we're right, even when all the evidence (the man was taken off on a stretcher) says we're wrong?
BONUS analysis from the Official Wonk Dad! Referees weren't the only ones who exercised poor judgment Saturday! As the Official Wonk Dad (hi, Dad!) hastens to add: what about UAB coach Mike Anderson?
Think about it: you've just seen Penders carted off the floor on a stretcher. And now your player is shooting a two-shot technical because, um, the opposing coach has a bad heart and collapsed. (We know now that Penders recovered and indeed came back to coach the second half. But the people in the arena didn't know that at the time.) Is this really something you want to get points out of?
Why in the world wouldn't you tell your player: "I want both free throws to go about five feet. If you so much as come near the basket, you're done for the day."
Would have been the class move. Alas.
Tempo-free stats world domination update (TFSWDU)
The contagious diffusion of tempo-free stats continues!
Readers now have the luxury of blogs that track the tempo-free goods for the Big East (Tempo-Free Stats, via Cracked Sidewalks) and the ACC (Blue Devil Hoops). Indefatigable 0.475-wielding bloggers, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
A salute to the Big Ten, courtesy of Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Bobbi Roquemore.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan plays Wisconsin in Ann Arbor. How big was the Wolverines' win Wednesday night over Michigan State? "Huge," says Jim Spadafore in this morning's Detroit News....How high will the Wolverines go in the rankings if they win? How quickly will the adulation balloon deflate if they lose at home? Tune in tomorrow!
Iowa plays Ohio State in Iowa City. Members of the Hawkeyes' 1955 and 1956 Final Four teams will be honored at the game.
Illinois plays Purdue in Champaign. Bruce Weber and Matt Painter go way back, starting a little more than 15 years ago when Weber recruited Painter to come play at Purdue.
Michigan State plays Penn State in East Lansing. Observant Spartan observer Dave Dye of the Detroit News joins in the Geek Day theme and says officiating is stacking the deck in favor of the home teams in Big Ten play: "It is unfortunate that road teams seem to be at such a disadvantage from the opening tip on many nights."...Tom Izzo may not go anywhere for a while, granted, but when he does: will he be succeeded by assistant Jim Boylen? Earnest speculation here.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Sunday!
Minnesota plays Indiana in Minneapolis (CBS, 1 ET). He's a former Hoosier. He's also used in this blog as an adjective and a synonym for "inefficient." He's Bracey Wright. Recently summoned from the NBA Development League by the Minnesota Timberwolves, Wright is now on the Wolves roster. This morning he answers "five questions" posed to him by the Indianapolis Star.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Wonk back! was moved upstairs today--scroll up!
But as long as you're down here anyway, allow me to offer a quick observation:
You, the alert readers, are an impressive group. In the span of 24 hours yesterday, I heard from: Terry B. (see above), whose anonymity I will honor but who has a very worthy footer on his email from a blue-chip firm; Nick D., the Ph.D. student in philosophy (see above); Matthew S., an honest to goodness Ph.D. and faculty member in business administration; and even an assistant district attorney from down SEC way. (If "Law & Order" has taught me anything, it's that all ADAs are extremely attractive women. Alert reader Jeff, you have a funny name for a woman!)
And that's just the readers who fess up to what they do. I'm sure the rest of you are ambassadors, U.S. Supreme Court justices, and free-lance donut testers, as well.
Alert and professionally accomplished readers, Wonk salutes you! I'm proud to know I'm crippling workday productivity in such lofty offices. ¶ 5:31 AM
Thursday, January 26, 2006
Seven, baby!
Savor the number. Seven Big Ten teams in the tournament. Barring injury or head case-induced collapse, it's going to happen.
Sure, the Big East will likely equal or even surpass that number. But will they be able to say they've put 63.6 percent of their teams into the tournament? I think not! (I'm busily printing my "63.6 percent" t-shirts as we speak.)
Why the conference pride? Because Michigan beat Michigan State 72-67 in Ann Arbor last night. In the process, the Wolverines lifted themselves up onto the same lofty yet increasingly crowded eminence where Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, and the aforementioned Spartans already reside. It's a tough loss for State--one aided in no small measure by a 34-10 advantage in FTAs for the home team--but, frankly, it's good news for the Big Ten. (Michigan State's place in the pantheon nationally is beyond secure. The task at hand is to give them some more company from the Big Ten.)
A few days ago I offered the following:
The test for Michigan, as for any team, is this: they will have arrived when we know in advance how they expect to win. Look at Wisconsin. We say things like: "Wisconsin, as expected, played tough D and took care of the ball." The Wolverines will be "back" when we can finish this sentence in a non-pejorative fashion: "Michigan, as expected, (blank)."
We may now have a nominee for the blank. How about: "Michigan, as expected, got meaningful production from Daniel Horton at the free throw line." Last night Horton, who hits 90.6 percent of his freebies, scored 23 points on 8-of-8 shooting at the line, making him 18-for-18 over the last two games. Horton made the difference on a night when the Wolverines were without both Lester Abram (sprained ankle) and, in effect, Courtney Sims (17 minutes, four points, three boards).
(Horton also turns the ball over too much--and added another seven to his total last night. Duly noted.)
As for State, they were foul-blighted and as a result played a somewhat skittish second half. Paul Davis scored just ten points in 29 minutes. No Spartan had more than five boards (!) and indeed MSU allowed Michigan to post a notably robust 41.2 offensive rebound pct. on the evening. Free throws and boards, in that order, made the difference. ("They beat us on the free-throw line," Mo Ager said succinctly last night.) (Box score.)
The test of what this loss means to Michigan State will be simply how well Michigan defends its home court from here on out. Actually, it's to State's advantage that the Wolverines prove to be as good as they look like they might be. If no one else wins at Crisler, MSU still looks good--they still have that win at Ohio State.
The thing that's unfortunate for the Spartans--and for Iowa--is that they went to Madison and lost when the Badgers' roster was still stocked. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio State, apparently, will each have a better shot at a W purely by happenstance. (Michigan doesn't play in Madison this season.)
Links
Last night's game was a sellout and Horton noticed: "Hopefully, the fans will keep on coming out." Asked about the discrepancy in free throw attempts between the two teams, Izzo responded: "Let me figure out what words I can use: The officiating, I question. I really do, I question it. The 34-10 (foul shot) discrepancy really kind of hurt us." He hastened to add, however: "Don't read into it that I'm sitting here crying about the officiating....It's not what totally cost us the game."...Detroit News columnist Bob Wojnowski: "Did the Wolverines get some breaks? Sure. They got a favorable whistle from the referees, which helped put MSU in foul trouble. But hey, maybe that's the first step toward an actual home-court advantage at Crisler, something we haven't seen in years." Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg: "We learned that Michigan is legit NCAA tournament material and a threat for the Big Ten title. We didn't know that before. Even the U-M coaches, if they were honest, didn't know it." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz: "The Wolverines were the more aggressive team. They outhustled the Spartans. They got to the foul line. They won the rebounding war. They deserved to win."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Penn State 72-43 last night in Madison, a game the Badgers already led 26-5 by the midway point of the first half. Bo Ryan's team shot threes over the Nittany Lion zone all night long (no fewer than 34 3FGAs) and, while hitting 38.2 percent of your threes is merely "good," after Saturday's shooting debacle the Badgers must have felt like they were absolutely on fire. Alando Tucker recovered from his 2-for-18 outing and scored 17, hitting 4-of-7 threes. Geary Claxton matched Tucker with 17 points (on 8-of-12 shooting) but no other PSU player scored more than six points. The rebounding was even (and I mean exactly even: both teams had 12 offensive boards and 23 defensive rebounds) but Penn State gave away 18 turnovers and couldn't hit their shots over the (much) taller home team. "This isn't the team I've seen play the last three or four games," said Ed DeChellis afterward. "(Wisconsin) made some shots early but we were so passive in the zone, and weren't aggressive like we had been." Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates: "Anyone who thought UW wouldn't come out razor sharp hasn't been watching the Badgers since coach Bo Ryan took over five years ago." (Box score.)...Badger big man Greg Stiemsma is academically ineligible and will not play the rest of the season. In a statement released by the UW athletic department before last night's game, Stiemsma was quoted as follows: "I've been dealing with depression which caused me to take a leave of absence from the team and also affected my academic performance."
Illinois beat Minnesota 77-53 in Champaign last night. This was still a six-point contest with less than 13 minutes left in the game, when the Illini decided to go small and put Brian Randle at the 4. The result was a 25-7 Illinois run to close out the win. "(Minnesota) got a little impatient and took some tough shots and we broke their backs in transition," Bruce Weber said of his team's run at the end. Dee Brown likes the Assembly Hall: 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting, 3-of-6 on his threes, five assists, one turnover. Meanwhile Jamar Smith launched eight threes in just 25 minutes and hit five of them (plus a free throw) to add 16 points. (Still, Smith's most impressive play was his half-court assist on a beautiful alley-oop to Randle, who had 10 points and eight boards in just 20 foul-blighted minutes. "When he plays like that, the sky's the limit," Brown said of Randle's night.) On the other side of the ledger, Adam Boone was notably quiet: four shots, no points, no assists, two turnovers, and one rebound in 29 minutes. "We came in here and did some good things, but slowly they got the upper hand on us," says J'son Stamper. In this morning's Minneapolis Star Tribune, indefatigable hoops savant Jeff Shelman is somewhat more succinct: "Another year, yet another blowout."...Warren Carter was benched for the game by Weber because he "failed to take care of things in a timely manner." The result was more PT last night for Calvin Brock....Weber was pleased with his team's performance: "Much better balance. Some transition, some inside, some outside. It really eases the pressure on Dee (Brown) when we play like that." Weber also points out that Illini seniors Brown and James Augustine have lost just one home game in their entire careers. ("There's something about the Hall," according to Randle.) Factoids like that make oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper wonder whether Illinois fans appreciate what they have: "With unprecedented success all around us, why is there a feeling that the grim reaper is lurking in the shadows, ready to end it all?" (Box score.) BONUS meme look-ahead! More PT for Chester Frazier at the point, allowing Brown to move over to the 2. This will be the talk. Weber will then fret hoarsely about the implications for the defense. Etc.
Northwestern beat Purdue 78-76 in OT last night in West Lafayette. Wildcat freshman Craig Moore hit a three with nine-tenths of a second left in regulation to force the overtime. Boiler big man Matt Kiefer says the home team should have won it in OT anyway: "Moore's shot may have had an (emotional) toll on us, but as far as the pace Northwestern plays, most everybody still had their legs." Both teams shot extremely well (posting effective FG percentages north of 60) in a game where 21 of the 45 threes were good. Vedran Vukusic led the 'Cats with 29 points; Kiefer, Bryant Dillon, and Marcus White each had 18 for the Boilers. (Kiefer also added 15 boards.) Turnovers (18) continued to be an issue for Matt Painter's team, but the aforementioned good shooting and a strong effort on the offensive glass gave them a shot to win this one. Still, it wasn't enough. Painter said the two teams' differing styles of play made a difference: "(Northwestern) looked a little more fresh. We're trying to pound the ball inside and they're looking for threes. It's a little bit different." (Box score.)
COMING tomorrow!
The second in a series of occasional Geek Day posts. Stats! Analysis of stats! Assessing the inexorable progress of tempo-free stats! Non-geeks are duly warned.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The staff in Wonk's Prescience Department told me I'd use this email
On Monday I said Michigan State's the best team in the Big Ten "right now." And so they were. Then. But even on Monday, one alert reader begged to differ....
Wonk,
I am a Michigan fan and may need to shut myself up come Thursday morning. But for now, I have a question for you. Yes, MSU has had some impressive wins over their last three, but shouldn't you note the stark dichotomy between the Home Spartans and the Road Spartans?
MSU has averaged 58 (!) points per game on the road thus far, and are averaging 0.86 ppp in those three road games, if my math is correct. Some might also say that MSU's defense has improved significantly. They did play very well against OSU, but gave up 1.10 ppp against Indiana. And as for Iowa, they have as much offense as I have dunks on a regulation basket in my lifetime (that would be none).
Has MSU really turned a corner? Or are their recent gaudy home wins over Indiana and Iowa an indication of a Jekyll and Hyde thing going on? Michigan's defensive efficiency numbers aren't too far off those of Wisconsin and OSU, and their offensive efficiency is also right up there with the best.
I want to say with every fiber of my being that MSU is just a bad road team this year. Thoughts?
Andrew P.
Atlanta
Last night the Spartans lost on the road, giving up 1.10 points per possession. Not a bad piece of advance analysis, Andrew. ¶ 6:38 AM
Savor the number. Seven Big Ten teams in the tournament. Barring injury or head case-induced collapse, it's going to happen.
Sure, the Big East will likely equal or even surpass that number. But will they be able to say they've put 63.6 percent of their teams into the tournament? I think not! (I'm busily printing my "63.6 percent" t-shirts as we speak.)
Why the conference pride? Because Michigan beat Michigan State 72-67 in Ann Arbor last night. In the process, the Wolverines lifted themselves up onto the same lofty yet increasingly crowded eminence where Wisconsin, Illinois, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa, and the aforementioned Spartans already reside. It's a tough loss for State--one aided in no small measure by a 34-10 advantage in FTAs for the home team--but, frankly, it's good news for the Big Ten. (Michigan State's place in the pantheon nationally is beyond secure. The task at hand is to give them some more company from the Big Ten.)
A few days ago I offered the following:
The test for Michigan, as for any team, is this: they will have arrived when we know in advance how they expect to win. Look at Wisconsin. We say things like: "Wisconsin, as expected, played tough D and took care of the ball." The Wolverines will be "back" when we can finish this sentence in a non-pejorative fashion: "Michigan, as expected, (blank)."
We may now have a nominee for the blank. How about: "Michigan, as expected, got meaningful production from Daniel Horton at the free throw line." Last night Horton, who hits 90.6 percent of his freebies, scored 23 points on 8-of-8 shooting at the line, making him 18-for-18 over the last two games. Horton made the difference on a night when the Wolverines were without both Lester Abram (sprained ankle) and, in effect, Courtney Sims (17 minutes, four points, three boards).
(Horton also turns the ball over too much--and added another seven to his total last night. Duly noted.)
As for State, they were foul-blighted and as a result played a somewhat skittish second half. Paul Davis scored just ten points in 29 minutes. No Spartan had more than five boards (!) and indeed MSU allowed Michigan to post a notably robust 41.2 offensive rebound pct. on the evening. Free throws and boards, in that order, made the difference. ("They beat us on the free-throw line," Mo Ager said succinctly last night.) (Box score.)
The test of what this loss means to Michigan State will be simply how well Michigan defends its home court from here on out. Actually, it's to State's advantage that the Wolverines prove to be as good as they look like they might be. If no one else wins at Crisler, MSU still looks good--they still have that win at Ohio State.
The thing that's unfortunate for the Spartans--and for Iowa--is that they went to Madison and lost when the Badgers' roster was still stocked. Illinois, Indiana, and Ohio State, apparently, will each have a better shot at a W purely by happenstance. (Michigan doesn't play in Madison this season.)
Links
Last night's game was a sellout and Horton noticed: "Hopefully, the fans will keep on coming out." Asked about the discrepancy in free throw attempts between the two teams, Izzo responded: "Let me figure out what words I can use: The officiating, I question. I really do, I question it. The 34-10 (foul shot) discrepancy really kind of hurt us." He hastened to add, however: "Don't read into it that I'm sitting here crying about the officiating....It's not what totally cost us the game."...Detroit News columnist Bob Wojnowski: "Did the Wolverines get some breaks? Sure. They got a favorable whistle from the referees, which helped put MSU in foul trouble. But hey, maybe that's the first step toward an actual home-court advantage at Crisler, something we haven't seen in years." Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg: "We learned that Michigan is legit NCAA tournament material and a threat for the Big Ten title. We didn't know that before. Even the U-M coaches, if they were honest, didn't know it." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz: "The Wolverines were the more aggressive team. They outhustled the Spartans. They got to the foul line. They won the rebounding war. They deserved to win."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Penn State 72-43 last night in Madison, a game the Badgers already led 26-5 by the midway point of the first half. Bo Ryan's team shot threes over the Nittany Lion zone all night long (no fewer than 34 3FGAs) and, while hitting 38.2 percent of your threes is merely "good," after Saturday's shooting debacle the Badgers must have felt like they were absolutely on fire. Alando Tucker recovered from his 2-for-18 outing and scored 17, hitting 4-of-7 threes. Geary Claxton matched Tucker with 17 points (on 8-of-12 shooting) but no other PSU player scored more than six points. The rebounding was even (and I mean exactly even: both teams had 12 offensive boards and 23 defensive rebounds) but Penn State gave away 18 turnovers and couldn't hit their shots over the (much) taller home team. "This isn't the team I've seen play the last three or four games," said Ed DeChellis afterward. "(Wisconsin) made some shots early but we were so passive in the zone, and weren't aggressive like we had been." Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates: "Anyone who thought UW wouldn't come out razor sharp hasn't been watching the Badgers since coach Bo Ryan took over five years ago." (Box score.)...Badger big man Greg Stiemsma is academically ineligible and will not play the rest of the season. In a statement released by the UW athletic department before last night's game, Stiemsma was quoted as follows: "I've been dealing with depression which caused me to take a leave of absence from the team and also affected my academic performance."
Illinois beat Minnesota 77-53 in Champaign last night. This was still a six-point contest with less than 13 minutes left in the game, when the Illini decided to go small and put Brian Randle at the 4. The result was a 25-7 Illinois run to close out the win. "(Minnesota) got a little impatient and took some tough shots and we broke their backs in transition," Bruce Weber said of his team's run at the end. Dee Brown likes the Assembly Hall: 17 points on 7-of-11 shooting, 3-of-6 on his threes, five assists, one turnover. Meanwhile Jamar Smith launched eight threes in just 25 minutes and hit five of them (plus a free throw) to add 16 points. (Still, Smith's most impressive play was his half-court assist on a beautiful alley-oop to Randle, who had 10 points and eight boards in just 20 foul-blighted minutes. "When he plays like that, the sky's the limit," Brown said of Randle's night.) On the other side of the ledger, Adam Boone was notably quiet: four shots, no points, no assists, two turnovers, and one rebound in 29 minutes. "We came in here and did some good things, but slowly they got the upper hand on us," says J'son Stamper. In this morning's Minneapolis Star Tribune, indefatigable hoops savant Jeff Shelman is somewhat more succinct: "Another year, yet another blowout."...Warren Carter was benched for the game by Weber because he "failed to take care of things in a timely manner." The result was more PT last night for Calvin Brock....Weber was pleased with his team's performance: "Much better balance. Some transition, some inside, some outside. It really eases the pressure on Dee (Brown) when we play like that." Weber also points out that Illini seniors Brown and James Augustine have lost just one home game in their entire careers. ("There's something about the Hall," according to Randle.) Factoids like that make oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper wonder whether Illinois fans appreciate what they have: "With unprecedented success all around us, why is there a feeling that the grim reaper is lurking in the shadows, ready to end it all?" (Box score.) BONUS meme look-ahead! More PT for Chester Frazier at the point, allowing Brown to move over to the 2. This will be the talk. Weber will then fret hoarsely about the implications for the defense. Etc.
Northwestern beat Purdue 78-76 in OT last night in West Lafayette. Wildcat freshman Craig Moore hit a three with nine-tenths of a second left in regulation to force the overtime. Boiler big man Matt Kiefer says the home team should have won it in OT anyway: "Moore's shot may have had an (emotional) toll on us, but as far as the pace Northwestern plays, most everybody still had their legs." Both teams shot extremely well (posting effective FG percentages north of 60) in a game where 21 of the 45 threes were good. Vedran Vukusic led the 'Cats with 29 points; Kiefer, Bryant Dillon, and Marcus White each had 18 for the Boilers. (Kiefer also added 15 boards.) Turnovers (18) continued to be an issue for Matt Painter's team, but the aforementioned good shooting and a strong effort on the offensive glass gave them a shot to win this one. Still, it wasn't enough. Painter said the two teams' differing styles of play made a difference: "(Northwestern) looked a little more fresh. We're trying to pound the ball inside and they're looking for threes. It's a little bit different." (Box score.)
COMING tomorrow!
The second in a series of occasional Geek Day posts. Stats! Analysis of stats! Assessing the inexorable progress of tempo-free stats! Non-geeks are duly warned.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The staff in Wonk's Prescience Department told me I'd use this email
On Monday I said Michigan State's the best team in the Big Ten "right now." And so they were. Then. But even on Monday, one alert reader begged to differ....
Wonk,
I am a Michigan fan and may need to shut myself up come Thursday morning. But for now, I have a question for you. Yes, MSU has had some impressive wins over their last three, but shouldn't you note the stark dichotomy between the Home Spartans and the Road Spartans?
MSU has averaged 58 (!) points per game on the road thus far, and are averaging 0.86 ppp in those three road games, if my math is correct. Some might also say that MSU's defense has improved significantly. They did play very well against OSU, but gave up 1.10 ppp against Indiana. And as for Iowa, they have as much offense as I have dunks on a regulation basket in my lifetime (that would be none).
Has MSU really turned a corner? Or are their recent gaudy home wins over Indiana and Iowa an indication of a Jekyll and Hyde thing going on? Michigan's defensive efficiency numbers aren't too far off those of Wisconsin and OSU, and their offensive efficiency is also right up there with the best.
I want to say with every fiber of my being that MSU is just a bad road team this year. Thoughts?
Andrew P.
Atlanta
Last night the Spartans lost on the road, giving up 1.10 points per possession. Not a bad piece of advance analysis, Andrew. ¶ 6:38 AM
Wednesday, January 25, 2006
North Dakota State won at the Kohl Center. Can Penn State?
Well, no, probably not. (So forgive the provocative headline. Ha!)
The freaky solar-eclipse nature of Wisconsin's loss to North Dakota State on Saturday merits repeating: in many respects the Badgers actually played their normal game. (Or so it would appear on paper. No one seems to have actually seen this game. Could it have been a Capricorn One-style moon landing hoax? Just asking!) They had a (very) slight edge on the boards. Their opponent turned the ball over 24 times; they turned it over just ten times. So, even with a depleted roster, most everything was as it should have been.
Except for the shooting. By now you know about the Badgers' 16-of-72 effort. But look at the Bison: a 53.3 effective FG pct. Granted, that's nowhere near as stellar as UW's 25.0 was bad--but for a Wisconsin opponent that's very good. In games this season where they've held their opponent to an eFG of under 50 percent, the Badgers are 12-0. When the opponent posts an eFG pct. of 50 or better, Wisconsin is just 2-4.
But enough wallowing in Saturday. Let's look at tonight's game.
The good news for Badger fans is their shooting woes should end this evening: Penn State has the worst FG defense in the Big Ten.
Why? (Here's where years of training in advanced hoops analysis is simply indispensable. Don't try this at home.) Because they're so dang short! The tallest starter for the Nittany Lions is Jamelle Cornley at 6-6. Indeed, tonight will feature the tallest team in the Big Ten going up against the smallest. (Were he to switch uniforms tonight, Ray Nixon, Wisconsin's starting 2-guard, would be the tallest PSU starter by two inches.)
Not surprisingly, then, Ed DeChellis's team has the worst defense in the conference, primarily due to the fact that Big Ten opponents are hitting an astounding 57.5 percent of their two-point shots against PSU. DeChellis quite rightly tries to compensate for this by playing a good deal of zone (and thus Penn State opponents are actually attempting a surprising number of threes) but a zone can mask only so much vertical disinclination.
OK, point taken. The D is struggling. Now look at the good news. Yes! There's good news in State College! It's called the offense....
They're hitting their shots. Last year Penn State posted an 11th-place 44.2 effective FG pct. in conference play. This year after five games they're at 51.0. That number is guaranteed to dip as conference play continues, sure. But clearly the shooting has improved dramatically in Happy Valley, thanks in part to notably efficient scoring from freshman Jamelle Cornley (1.20 PPWS).
They're crashing the offensive boards. While Geary Claxton isn't exactly known as the second coming of Dennis Rodman, he does have a very nice 11.5 offensive rebound pct. for the year. Among Big Ten starters, only Courtney Sims, Matt Kiefer, Graham Brown, Paul Davis, Shaun Pruitt, and Greg Brunner have done better on the offensive glass.
They're distributing the ball. No other Big Ten team has a pair of assist machines like Ben Luber (9.4 assists per 100 possessions) and Mike Walker (9.3). And Walker, for one, does it without turning the ball over.
Can they do all of the above tonight? On the road? Against a team that to Nittany Lion eyes will look like a forest of redwoods? Probably not. Nevertheless: resurgent offensive producers of Penn State, Wonk salutes you!
Links
Ed DeChellis says he too, like Wonk, has noticed a slight size discrepancy between his team and tonight's opponent: "They're very big, and we can't change that, so we've got to figure out what we need to do to try to play the other end of it. We'll try to bring our posts away from the basket, make them guard on the perimeter maybe a little bit more than they're used to."...Greg Stiemsma will not play tonight, due to undisclosed medical issues. His status for the rest of the season is reportedly "yet to be determined."...
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa beat Indiana 73-60 last night in Iowa City. Yesterday I said I was looking forward to learning more about what the Hoosiers look like outside Bloomington. Alas, there was little to be learned from this game. I didn't know that IU's best three-point shooter, Marshall Strickland, wasn't going to play (sore knee), or that as a consequence we'd be seeing so much Errek Suhr, or that Mike Davis was going to bench Marco Killingsworth for ten minutes in the second half. Adam Haluska notched a 20-10 dub-dub for the home team and Greg Brunner added 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting. Depending on how you look at it, this game was either won by Iowa or lost by Indiana on the interior on IU's side of the floor. Even without Strickland, the Hoosiers had their standard game on the perimeter (13 made threes, 41.9 3FG pct.), thanks largely to Robert Vaden, who played like a man possessed (8-of-12 from outside the arc). But Indiana had nothing going on inside and made just 9 of 29 two-pointers--credit Erek Hansen ("The best shot blocker in the league" according to Davis) and his six blocks. (Before this past weekend, Indiana hadn't hit less than 40 percent of their twos in any game. Now they've done it two games in a row. Keep an eye on this.) As for the Hawkeyes, they turned the ball over a bit, it's true, but when they managed to hold on to the rock they got the match ups they wanted on offense (the words "Erek Hansen" and "blow-by dunk" can now be used together for the first time in recorded history). Even if the Hoosiers had been fully staffed it might not have mattered on this night (D.J. White notwithstanding, naturally)....Canonical and no doubt happy blogger Ryan Kobliska already has his spanking good game recap posted....Iowa laid a 14-0 run on Indiana to start the second half and Steve Alford was happy: "The start of the second half in our last two games has been awful and that was a trend we had to reverse." Jeff Horner agreed: "It's about time we started a second half that was good." (Box score.)
Michigan plays Michigan State in Ann Arbor tonight. Tommy Amaker frets about Paul Davis, Mo Ager, and Shannon Brown here. Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says this rivalry, uh, isn't. It just isn't: "Let's face it, when MSU and U-M cross swords on the basketball court these days, there's precious little clang." Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says waiting for the Wolverines to "return" to glory is a little like waiting for Kobe Bryant to "return" to selflessness: "People keep waiting for the Wolverines to regain their natural place atop the state basketball pyramid. But who says that would be natural? The idea that Michigan historically dominates Michigan State in basketball is simply not true." Profiles in profusion! Today's theme at both ends of I-96 is apparently a Salute to the Biography Channel: profile of UM point guard Daniel Horton here. Another look at Horton, from an East Lansing perspective, here. Profile of Spartan point guard Drew Neitzel here. Profile of Wolverine dunkmeister Brent Petway here. Profile of two-sport Spartan wonder Matt Trannon here.
Illinois plays Minnesota in Champaign tonight. The Illini have won 13 straight against the Gophers. Dan Monson salutes Illinois for achieving success even after losing three starters from last year's team: "They have really made their identity and that's something our team is searching for." Bruce Weber says his team isn't looking past Minnesota: "Their whole team, they scare you. They have some experience, some talent and in a way they are a little like Michigan. You are always waiting for them to explode." At the same time, Weber thinks Illinois can improve: "We beat Georgetown, controlled that game from the start. They go beat Duke. It makes you say, 'Hey, do you want to be really good?' The kids have to decide that." Profile of Illini big man Warren Carter here....Inevitable Gopher-based bad pun headline here. (I'm going to have to start keeping a running tally of these.) Indefatigable hoops savant Jeff Shelman tosses around a little points-per-possession talk in the Minneapolis Star Tribune this morning as he assesses the Gophers' woes on offense here....Tonight's tipoff is at 8 Central time instead of the usual 7. Does the Big Ten really schedule games so that Illinois and Northwestern aren't in action at the same time? That's what it says here. Speaking of which....
Purdue plays Northwestern tonight in West Lafayette. Chicago native, Connecticut transfer, and one of two players on the same team named Marcus (Color): profile of Boiler big man Marcus White here. Meanwhile, TV coverage of Purdue games in Indianapolis is being scaled back. The Boilers draw only a little more than half as many viewers in Indy as does Indiana.
BONUS notably geeky edition of Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Reading other bloggers' mail--Wonk feels like Estelle Costanza!
Today's Wonk-back comes to us unwittingly from Matt, who actually emailed blogger extraordinaire Ken Pomeroy and not me.
Minor point. Matt has posed a good question and I trust neither he nor Ken will mind the ctrl-c'ing here:
Hi Ken,
I love that you have added tempo-free stats for every team. Just a quick question about that. How do you calculate individual possessions used?
And as a tie-in, how do you calculate the TO Rate? I was just curious because at Big Ten Wonk, Marco Killingsworth has by far the highest TO rate in the conference, while on your page he isn’t even the highest on IU. I assume it has something to do with the calculation of individual possessions--Wonk’s are just based on minutes played/team minutes played.
Thanks a ton, keep up the good work,
Matt
Ken then accurately notes that he uses the Dean Oliver formula for actual individual possessions used in his calculation of TO rate whereas I use the way simpler formula for individual possessions on the floor. The difference is this:
If you put Killingsworth on the floor for 100 possessions of IU running their normal offensive sets, you will see him turn the ball over 8.9 times. On the other hand, if you fed every player in the Big Ten the ball as often as the Hoosiers feed the ball to Killingsworth (which is to say relentlessly and methodically), you would see other players (we're looking at you Rico Tucker--oh, you too, Marcus White) turn the ball over way more often than does Killingsworth. (Actually, Tucker and White turn the ball over more often than Killingsworth purely on the basis of possessions on the floor--which is astounding.)
In short: my numbers for TOs per 100 possessions are purely descriptive and take the hoops world at (tempo-free) face value: regardless of playing time and given the predilections of the offenses as they indeed exist, who is turning the ball over the most? Ken's numbers are richly analytic and go beyond mere description (though of course they do that too) to pose provocative what-if questions: if every player in the country got the same number of touches, who would turn it over the most?
BONUS clarification of plaudits! In his post today, Ken suggests I said he was the "best writer ever." Nice try, Pomeroy! What I really said is that Ken Pomeroy is the "best college basketball writer" in the country (emphasis added). Come April, when this blog is safely mothballed, I'll be found hunkered down with the real best writer ever and not with my sheaf of printouts from kenpom.com (which, granted, I carry around 24/7 in a backpack emblazoned with Ken's picture). ¶ 6:34 AM
Well, no, probably not. (So forgive the provocative headline. Ha!)
The freaky solar-eclipse nature of Wisconsin's loss to North Dakota State on Saturday merits repeating: in many respects the Badgers actually played their normal game. (Or so it would appear on paper. No one seems to have actually seen this game. Could it have been a Capricorn One-style moon landing hoax? Just asking!) They had a (very) slight edge on the boards. Their opponent turned the ball over 24 times; they turned it over just ten times. So, even with a depleted roster, most everything was as it should have been.
Except for the shooting. By now you know about the Badgers' 16-of-72 effort. But look at the Bison: a 53.3 effective FG pct. Granted, that's nowhere near as stellar as UW's 25.0 was bad--but for a Wisconsin opponent that's very good. In games this season where they've held their opponent to an eFG of under 50 percent, the Badgers are 12-0. When the opponent posts an eFG pct. of 50 or better, Wisconsin is just 2-4.
But enough wallowing in Saturday. Let's look at tonight's game.
The good news for Badger fans is their shooting woes should end this evening: Penn State has the worst FG defense in the Big Ten.
Why? (Here's where years of training in advanced hoops analysis is simply indispensable. Don't try this at home.) Because they're so dang short! The tallest starter for the Nittany Lions is Jamelle Cornley at 6-6. Indeed, tonight will feature the tallest team in the Big Ten going up against the smallest. (Were he to switch uniforms tonight, Ray Nixon, Wisconsin's starting 2-guard, would be the tallest PSU starter by two inches.)
Not surprisingly, then, Ed DeChellis's team has the worst defense in the conference, primarily due to the fact that Big Ten opponents are hitting an astounding 57.5 percent of their two-point shots against PSU. DeChellis quite rightly tries to compensate for this by playing a good deal of zone (and thus Penn State opponents are actually attempting a surprising number of threes) but a zone can mask only so much vertical disinclination.
OK, point taken. The D is struggling. Now look at the good news. Yes! There's good news in State College! It's called the offense....
They're hitting their shots. Last year Penn State posted an 11th-place 44.2 effective FG pct. in conference play. This year after five games they're at 51.0. That number is guaranteed to dip as conference play continues, sure. But clearly the shooting has improved dramatically in Happy Valley, thanks in part to notably efficient scoring from freshman Jamelle Cornley (1.20 PPWS).
They're crashing the offensive boards. While Geary Claxton isn't exactly known as the second coming of Dennis Rodman, he does have a very nice 11.5 offensive rebound pct. for the year. Among Big Ten starters, only Courtney Sims, Matt Kiefer, Graham Brown, Paul Davis, Shaun Pruitt, and Greg Brunner have done better on the offensive glass.
They're distributing the ball. No other Big Ten team has a pair of assist machines like Ben Luber (9.4 assists per 100 possessions) and Mike Walker (9.3). And Walker, for one, does it without turning the ball over.
Can they do all of the above tonight? On the road? Against a team that to Nittany Lion eyes will look like a forest of redwoods? Probably not. Nevertheless: resurgent offensive producers of Penn State, Wonk salutes you!
Links
Ed DeChellis says he too, like Wonk, has noticed a slight size discrepancy between his team and tonight's opponent: "They're very big, and we can't change that, so we've got to figure out what we need to do to try to play the other end of it. We'll try to bring our posts away from the basket, make them guard on the perimeter maybe a little bit more than they're used to."...Greg Stiemsma will not play tonight, due to undisclosed medical issues. His status for the rest of the season is reportedly "yet to be determined."...
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa beat Indiana 73-60 last night in Iowa City. Yesterday I said I was looking forward to learning more about what the Hoosiers look like outside Bloomington. Alas, there was little to be learned from this game. I didn't know that IU's best three-point shooter, Marshall Strickland, wasn't going to play (sore knee), or that as a consequence we'd be seeing so much Errek Suhr, or that Mike Davis was going to bench Marco Killingsworth for ten minutes in the second half. Adam Haluska notched a 20-10 dub-dub for the home team and Greg Brunner added 17 points on 8-of-11 shooting. Depending on how you look at it, this game was either won by Iowa or lost by Indiana on the interior on IU's side of the floor. Even without Strickland, the Hoosiers had their standard game on the perimeter (13 made threes, 41.9 3FG pct.), thanks largely to Robert Vaden, who played like a man possessed (8-of-12 from outside the arc). But Indiana had nothing going on inside and made just 9 of 29 two-pointers--credit Erek Hansen ("The best shot blocker in the league" according to Davis) and his six blocks. (Before this past weekend, Indiana hadn't hit less than 40 percent of their twos in any game. Now they've done it two games in a row. Keep an eye on this.) As for the Hawkeyes, they turned the ball over a bit, it's true, but when they managed to hold on to the rock they got the match ups they wanted on offense (the words "Erek Hansen" and "blow-by dunk" can now be used together for the first time in recorded history). Even if the Hoosiers had been fully staffed it might not have mattered on this night (D.J. White notwithstanding, naturally)....Canonical and no doubt happy blogger Ryan Kobliska already has his spanking good game recap posted....Iowa laid a 14-0 run on Indiana to start the second half and Steve Alford was happy: "The start of the second half in our last two games has been awful and that was a trend we had to reverse." Jeff Horner agreed: "It's about time we started a second half that was good." (Box score.)
Michigan plays Michigan State in Ann Arbor tonight. Tommy Amaker frets about Paul Davis, Mo Ager, and Shannon Brown here. Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says this rivalry, uh, isn't. It just isn't: "Let's face it, when MSU and U-M cross swords on the basketball court these days, there's precious little clang." Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says waiting for the Wolverines to "return" to glory is a little like waiting for Kobe Bryant to "return" to selflessness: "People keep waiting for the Wolverines to regain their natural place atop the state basketball pyramid. But who says that would be natural? The idea that Michigan historically dominates Michigan State in basketball is simply not true." Profiles in profusion! Today's theme at both ends of I-96 is apparently a Salute to the Biography Channel: profile of UM point guard Daniel Horton here. Another look at Horton, from an East Lansing perspective, here. Profile of Spartan point guard Drew Neitzel here. Profile of Wolverine dunkmeister Brent Petway here. Profile of two-sport Spartan wonder Matt Trannon here.
Illinois plays Minnesota in Champaign tonight. The Illini have won 13 straight against the Gophers. Dan Monson salutes Illinois for achieving success even after losing three starters from last year's team: "They have really made their identity and that's something our team is searching for." Bruce Weber says his team isn't looking past Minnesota: "Their whole team, they scare you. They have some experience, some talent and in a way they are a little like Michigan. You are always waiting for them to explode." At the same time, Weber thinks Illinois can improve: "We beat Georgetown, controlled that game from the start. They go beat Duke. It makes you say, 'Hey, do you want to be really good?' The kids have to decide that." Profile of Illini big man Warren Carter here....Inevitable Gopher-based bad pun headline here. (I'm going to have to start keeping a running tally of these.) Indefatigable hoops savant Jeff Shelman tosses around a little points-per-possession talk in the Minneapolis Star Tribune this morning as he assesses the Gophers' woes on offense here....Tonight's tipoff is at 8 Central time instead of the usual 7. Does the Big Ten really schedule games so that Illinois and Northwestern aren't in action at the same time? That's what it says here. Speaking of which....
Purdue plays Northwestern tonight in West Lafayette. Chicago native, Connecticut transfer, and one of two players on the same team named Marcus (Color): profile of Boiler big man Marcus White here. Meanwhile, TV coverage of Purdue games in Indianapolis is being scaled back. The Boilers draw only a little more than half as many viewers in Indy as does Indiana.
BONUS notably geeky edition of Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Reading other bloggers' mail--Wonk feels like Estelle Costanza!
Today's Wonk-back comes to us unwittingly from Matt, who actually emailed blogger extraordinaire Ken Pomeroy and not me.
Minor point. Matt has posed a good question and I trust neither he nor Ken will mind the ctrl-c'ing here:
Hi Ken,
I love that you have added tempo-free stats for every team. Just a quick question about that. How do you calculate individual possessions used?
And as a tie-in, how do you calculate the TO Rate? I was just curious because at Big Ten Wonk, Marco Killingsworth has by far the highest TO rate in the conference, while on your page he isn’t even the highest on IU. I assume it has something to do with the calculation of individual possessions--Wonk’s are just based on minutes played/team minutes played.
Thanks a ton, keep up the good work,
Matt
Ken then accurately notes that he uses the Dean Oliver formula for actual individual possessions used in his calculation of TO rate whereas I use the way simpler formula for individual possessions on the floor. The difference is this:
If you put Killingsworth on the floor for 100 possessions of IU running their normal offensive sets, you will see him turn the ball over 8.9 times. On the other hand, if you fed every player in the Big Ten the ball as often as the Hoosiers feed the ball to Killingsworth (which is to say relentlessly and methodically), you would see other players (we're looking at you Rico Tucker--oh, you too, Marcus White) turn the ball over way more often than does Killingsworth. (Actually, Tucker and White turn the ball over more often than Killingsworth purely on the basis of possessions on the floor--which is astounding.)
In short: my numbers for TOs per 100 possessions are purely descriptive and take the hoops world at (tempo-free) face value: regardless of playing time and given the predilections of the offenses as they indeed exist, who is turning the ball over the most? Ken's numbers are richly analytic and go beyond mere description (though of course they do that too) to pose provocative what-if questions: if every player in the country got the same number of touches, who would turn it over the most?
BONUS clarification of plaudits! In his post today, Ken suggests I said he was the "best writer ever." Nice try, Pomeroy! What I really said is that Ken Pomeroy is the "best college basketball writer" in the country (emphasis added). Come April, when this blog is safely mothballed, I'll be found hunkered down with the real best writer ever and not with my sheaf of printouts from kenpom.com (which, granted, I carry around 24/7 in a backpack emblazoned with Ken's picture). ¶ 6:34 AM
Tuesday, January 24, 2006
How good is Indiana?
Iowa plays Indiana tonight in Iowa City (ESPN, 9 ET) and, sorry Hawkeyes, I'll be tuning in first and foremost to see if we can learn more about the Hoosiers. IU is 4-0 at home in conference play and 0-1 on the road--and their average margin of victory in those four wins has been six points. How good are they, really?
As regards the Indiana offense, I think the verdict is in: they're good. Their accuracy from beyond the arc is outstanding. Marshall Strickland (50.8 3FG pct.) and Robert Vaden (47.9) have rather quietly supplanted Je'Kel Foster of Ohio State (47.1) as the league's best outside shooters not named Jamar Smith (51.8) among players averaging more than 15 minutes a game. (Indeed, Strickland, as alert reader Patrick H. rather gleefully notes, has excelled from long-range in spite of my skepticism in November that going from point guard to the 2 would truly cure all shooting ills for the Hoosier guard. That is pretty much precisely what's happened. Duly noted, Patrick!) And IU has a certain Player of the Week down on the blocks scoring points and creating space for those shooters. (Granted, this particular Player of the Week also turns the ball over from time to time.) Yes, the offense is good. Subject to an occasional funk, certainly (see the beginning of the Illinois game and the first half of the Purdue game), but good.
What about the D? Yesterday I noted that in each of their past two games the Hoosiers have allowed relatively unheralded post players (Shaun Pruitt of Illinois and Marcus White of Purdue) to record career-high scoring totals. Alert reader Michael P. asks:
Just curious but with IU's ability to hit three pointers, does it play into IU's hands to let opposing teams score inside so often?
You cite the two players who had career days against Killingsworth, but he still outscored the player in each outing and IU's wing players won the game with their ability to trade threes for twos.
This may be too simplistic, but it appears to the naked eye that IU plays very good defense on the perimeter and Killingsworth will usually be a scoring machine. So the strategy, if it is that, appears sound.
Your naked eye is correct, Michael! IU's perimeter D is indeed their strength: Indiana's Big Ten opponents have hit just 28.9 percent of their threes, giving IU the third-best 3 FG pct. defense in the conference.
On the other hand, as I noted yesterday, Indiana's Big Ten opponents don't shoot many threes. They pound it inside against IU more assiduously than they do against any other team except Ohio State. And the Hoosiers' 2FG pct. defense (51.5) is eighth in the Big Ten. Result? IU ranks sixth in opponents' effective FG pct. Not great. Not terrible. Still early. Keep an eye on it.
Speaking of numbers to keep your eye on, IU's defensive rebounding is looking a little thin (ninth in the conference). Again, that's based on just five games--but thus far it's been the Hoosiers' main defensive liability (as it was, even more so, last year).
As for tonight's opponent: Iowa, of course, has been struggling on offense this season. And having Jeff Horner play with a knee brace hasn't exactly helped speed up a team that wasn't widely known as blazing fast to start with. So maybe Indiana's defensive numbers will get some help this evening. We'll see.
Links
Steve Alford is said to be "philosophically opposed" to double-teams, so Marco Killingsworth will likely be played straight-up by the Hawkeyes tonight. "We have to do a good job from the standpoint of team defense," Alford says. "Continue to run different people at him as far as who guards him, whether it be Erek (Hansen), Bru (Greg Brunner), Doug (Thomas), or Seth (Gorney)." Alford also says the Hawks have put Saturday's mauling at Michigan State behind them: "We met at 5:30 (Sunday afternoon). And at 5:40 we no longer talked about the last game." The 30-point loss represents Iowa's worst defeat in more than ten years....Profile of struggling Hoosier guard A.J. Ratliff here. Blessedly absent from these links! Any furtive discussion of or speculation about Alford coming back to IU. Hallelujah.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated! They're tempo-free! They're current through January 23! They're now restricted to conference games only! (So they're highly misleading this early in the conference season!) I think the Big Ten schedule, though unbalanced, gives us the best measuring stick we have. Look at last year's numbers in-conference: Illinois had the best efficiency margin; they went to the national championship game. Michigan State had the second-best; they went to the Final Four. Wisconsin had the third-best; they went to the Elite Eight. (Jeez, why bother to play the games? Oh, right, West Virginia--a negative efficiency margin in Big East play last season; and yet they came within one free throw of the Final Four. Wow.) Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy.
Jinkies! Player stats have been updated, too! (That's what happens when no one plays for two days. I can catch up.) One glimpse:
Scoring efficiency: PPWS (15+ min. per game--complete list)
1. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.42)
2. Jamar Smith, Illinois (1.38)
3. Lester Abram, Michigan (1.36)
4. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (1.34)
5. Paul Davis, Michigan State (1.32)
In today's less statistical venues....
Purdue guard Korey Spates has been dismissed from the team for (unspecified) conduct deemed detrimental to the squad. This brings a logical and seemingly foreordained conclusion to a process that has spanned four months. On September 25, juco transfer Tarrance Crump had a late night in which he allegedly managed to combine all of the following: alcohol, an SUV, a pedestrian, a brief bit of fleeing, and an unscheduled discussion with a representative of the West Lafayette law enforcement community. He was suspended for the season. Then David Teague was lost for the year due to a knee injury. Then Carl Landry decided to redshirt to rehabilitate the knee he injured last season. Then Nate Minnoy was lost for the year due to a knee injury. And, now, Spates. In the space of 120 days, Matt Painter has lost his entire projected starting five. Michigan in 2005 has nothing on Purdue 2006.
Wisconsin freshman Marcus Landry has been ruled academically ineligible and will not play the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Greg Stiemsma returned to practice yesterday, after taking a leave of absence for unspecified medical reasons. It's unclear whether Stiemsma will play tomorrow night against Penn State....Bo Ryan attributes Saturday's loss to North Dakota State to bad shooting and not to bad shots. After reviewing the game tape, Ryan says he saw his Badgers take only five bad shots. (Meaning they missed 51 good ones. Ye gods.) Just how surprising was Saturday's loss? At cbs.sportsline, Gregg Doyel has this to say: "A year ago, North Dakota State was in Division II. Three years before that, it was a junior high."
Michigan wing Lester Abram didn't practice yesterday after injuring his ankle in the Wolverines' victory over Minnesota Saturday night. The conventional wisdom says it's "doubtful" that he'll play in tomorrow night's game against Michigan State in Ann Arbor....Speaking of the Spartans, Tom Izzo uses the word "respect" about the same way Virgil Solozzo did. Referring to the Wolverines, Izzo says: "I respect their program, I respect their coach, I respect their players and recruited some of them, and yet I want to beat their brains in."
Inevitable (Minnesota Golden) Gopher-based bad pun headline here.
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says Marcus Arnold is fine and didn't play Saturday against Northwestern only because the match ups weren't favorable. "I feel bad for Marcus because there is no one who has had a better attitude," Weber says. "He'll get back into the rotation Wednesday night" against Minnesota....Latest recruiting buzz on high school ballers Leon Freeman and Patrick Beverley here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Munch-ing on Bacon
From time to time, your intrepid blogger has been known to deploy the following adjective: "Edvard Munch-level horrific." So when Wisconsin put on a display of shooting against North Dakota State that could only be described as, um, Edvard Munch-level horrific, the alert readers, by Godfrey, expected to see the words "Edvard Munch-level horrific"....
My dear Wonk,
This morning I opened up your page for my daily Wonking, expecting to read something or other relating "Badger eFG pct." and "Edvard Munch." While there was indeed mention of horrific yelping, The Scream was nowhere to be found.
Have masked men infiltrated the Wonk World Headquarters and stolen your verbiage to go along with their more tangible loot?
Or did this level of horrific-ness, hitherto unseen by Big Ten eyes, go above and beyond (or is it below and within?) Edvard Munch-level proportions? Is a new standard for Badger level horrific-osity in the works? Might I suggest Francis Bacon?
Horrifically yours,
Alex H.
Madison, WI
You're not alone, Alex! Indispensable Raymond Carver-esque hoops blogger Chris West also thought I'd call upon the redoubtable Mr. Munch to most suitably limn the Badgers' struggles from the field.
But no! I refuse to be painted into a "Say it!" corner by my own contrived hooks! In fact, I regard that prospect with Edvard Munch-level horror. (D'oh!) ¶ 6:49 AM
Iowa plays Indiana tonight in Iowa City (ESPN, 9 ET) and, sorry Hawkeyes, I'll be tuning in first and foremost to see if we can learn more about the Hoosiers. IU is 4-0 at home in conference play and 0-1 on the road--and their average margin of victory in those four wins has been six points. How good are they, really?
As regards the Indiana offense, I think the verdict is in: they're good. Their accuracy from beyond the arc is outstanding. Marshall Strickland (50.8 3FG pct.) and Robert Vaden (47.9) have rather quietly supplanted Je'Kel Foster of Ohio State (47.1) as the league's best outside shooters not named Jamar Smith (51.8) among players averaging more than 15 minutes a game. (Indeed, Strickland, as alert reader Patrick H. rather gleefully notes, has excelled from long-range in spite of my skepticism in November that going from point guard to the 2 would truly cure all shooting ills for the Hoosier guard. That is pretty much precisely what's happened. Duly noted, Patrick!) And IU has a certain Player of the Week down on the blocks scoring points and creating space for those shooters. (Granted, this particular Player of the Week also turns the ball over from time to time.) Yes, the offense is good. Subject to an occasional funk, certainly (see the beginning of the Illinois game and the first half of the Purdue game), but good.
What about the D? Yesterday I noted that in each of their past two games the Hoosiers have allowed relatively unheralded post players (Shaun Pruitt of Illinois and Marcus White of Purdue) to record career-high scoring totals. Alert reader Michael P. asks:
Just curious but with IU's ability to hit three pointers, does it play into IU's hands to let opposing teams score inside so often?
You cite the two players who had career days against Killingsworth, but he still outscored the player in each outing and IU's wing players won the game with their ability to trade threes for twos.
This may be too simplistic, but it appears to the naked eye that IU plays very good defense on the perimeter and Killingsworth will usually be a scoring machine. So the strategy, if it is that, appears sound.
Your naked eye is correct, Michael! IU's perimeter D is indeed their strength: Indiana's Big Ten opponents have hit just 28.9 percent of their threes, giving IU the third-best 3 FG pct. defense in the conference.
On the other hand, as I noted yesterday, Indiana's Big Ten opponents don't shoot many threes. They pound it inside against IU more assiduously than they do against any other team except Ohio State. And the Hoosiers' 2FG pct. defense (51.5) is eighth in the Big Ten. Result? IU ranks sixth in opponents' effective FG pct. Not great. Not terrible. Still early. Keep an eye on it.
Speaking of numbers to keep your eye on, IU's defensive rebounding is looking a little thin (ninth in the conference). Again, that's based on just five games--but thus far it's been the Hoosiers' main defensive liability (as it was, even more so, last year).
As for tonight's opponent: Iowa, of course, has been struggling on offense this season. And having Jeff Horner play with a knee brace hasn't exactly helped speed up a team that wasn't widely known as blazing fast to start with. So maybe Indiana's defensive numbers will get some help this evening. We'll see.
Links
Steve Alford is said to be "philosophically opposed" to double-teams, so Marco Killingsworth will likely be played straight-up by the Hawkeyes tonight. "We have to do a good job from the standpoint of team defense," Alford says. "Continue to run different people at him as far as who guards him, whether it be Erek (Hansen), Bru (Greg Brunner), Doug (Thomas), or Seth (Gorney)." Alford also says the Hawks have put Saturday's mauling at Michigan State behind them: "We met at 5:30 (Sunday afternoon). And at 5:40 we no longer talked about the last game." The 30-point loss represents Iowa's worst defeat in more than ten years....Profile of struggling Hoosier guard A.J. Ratliff here. Blessedly absent from these links! Any furtive discussion of or speculation about Alford coming back to IU. Hallelujah.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated! They're tempo-free! They're current through January 23! They're now restricted to conference games only! (So they're highly misleading this early in the conference season!) I think the Big Ten schedule, though unbalanced, gives us the best measuring stick we have. Look at last year's numbers in-conference: Illinois had the best efficiency margin; they went to the national championship game. Michigan State had the second-best; they went to the Final Four. Wisconsin had the third-best; they went to the Elite Eight. (Jeez, why bother to play the games? Oh, right, West Virginia--a negative efficiency margin in Big East play last season; and yet they came within one free throw of the Final Four. Wow.) Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy.
Jinkies! Player stats have been updated, too! (That's what happens when no one plays for two days. I can catch up.) One glimpse:
Scoring efficiency: PPWS (15+ min. per game--complete list)
1. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.42)
2. Jamar Smith, Illinois (1.38)
3. Lester Abram, Michigan (1.36)
4. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (1.34)
5. Paul Davis, Michigan State (1.32)
In today's less statistical venues....
Purdue guard Korey Spates has been dismissed from the team for (unspecified) conduct deemed detrimental to the squad. This brings a logical and seemingly foreordained conclusion to a process that has spanned four months. On September 25, juco transfer Tarrance Crump had a late night in which he allegedly managed to combine all of the following: alcohol, an SUV, a pedestrian, a brief bit of fleeing, and an unscheduled discussion with a representative of the West Lafayette law enforcement community. He was suspended for the season. Then David Teague was lost for the year due to a knee injury. Then Carl Landry decided to redshirt to rehabilitate the knee he injured last season. Then Nate Minnoy was lost for the year due to a knee injury. And, now, Spates. In the space of 120 days, Matt Painter has lost his entire projected starting five. Michigan in 2005 has nothing on Purdue 2006.
Wisconsin freshman Marcus Landry has been ruled academically ineligible and will not play the rest of the season. Meanwhile, Greg Stiemsma returned to practice yesterday, after taking a leave of absence for unspecified medical reasons. It's unclear whether Stiemsma will play tomorrow night against Penn State....Bo Ryan attributes Saturday's loss to North Dakota State to bad shooting and not to bad shots. After reviewing the game tape, Ryan says he saw his Badgers take only five bad shots. (Meaning they missed 51 good ones. Ye gods.) Just how surprising was Saturday's loss? At cbs.sportsline, Gregg Doyel has this to say: "A year ago, North Dakota State was in Division II. Three years before that, it was a junior high."
Michigan wing Lester Abram didn't practice yesterday after injuring his ankle in the Wolverines' victory over Minnesota Saturday night. The conventional wisdom says it's "doubtful" that he'll play in tomorrow night's game against Michigan State in Ann Arbor....Speaking of the Spartans, Tom Izzo uses the word "respect" about the same way Virgil Solozzo did. Referring to the Wolverines, Izzo says: "I respect their program, I respect their coach, I respect their players and recruited some of them, and yet I want to beat their brains in."
Inevitable (Minnesota Golden) Gopher-based bad pun headline here.
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says Marcus Arnold is fine and didn't play Saturday against Northwestern only because the match ups weren't favorable. "I feel bad for Marcus because there is no one who has had a better attitude," Weber says. "He'll get back into the rotation Wednesday night" against Minnesota....Latest recruiting buzz on high school ballers Leon Freeman and Patrick Beverley here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Munch-ing on Bacon
From time to time, your intrepid blogger has been known to deploy the following adjective: "Edvard Munch-level horrific." So when Wisconsin put on a display of shooting against North Dakota State that could only be described as, um, Edvard Munch-level horrific, the alert readers, by Godfrey, expected to see the words "Edvard Munch-level horrific"....
My dear Wonk,
This morning I opened up your page for my daily Wonking, expecting to read something or other relating "Badger eFG pct." and "Edvard Munch." While there was indeed mention of horrific yelping, The Scream was nowhere to be found.
Have masked men infiltrated the Wonk World Headquarters and stolen your verbiage to go along with their more tangible loot?
Or did this level of horrific-ness, hitherto unseen by Big Ten eyes, go above and beyond (or is it below and within?) Edvard Munch-level proportions? Is a new standard for Badger level horrific-osity in the works? Might I suggest Francis Bacon?
Horrifically yours,
Alex H.
Madison, WI
You're not alone, Alex! Indispensable Raymond Carver-esque hoops blogger Chris West also thought I'd call upon the redoubtable Mr. Munch to most suitably limn the Badgers' struggles from the field.
But no! I refuse to be painted into a "Say it!" corner by my own contrived hooks! In fact, I regard that prospect with Edvard Munch-level horror. (D'oh!) ¶ 6:49 AM
Offensive efficiency: points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (1.14)
2. Penn State (1.06)
3. Michigan (1.05)
4. Indiana (1.04)
5. Michigan State (1.03)
6. Wisconsin (1.01)
7. Illinois (0.96)
8. Northwestern (0.94)
9. Iowa (0.92)
10. Purdue (0.91)
11. Minnesota (0.83) ¶ 5:00 AM
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (1.14)
2. Penn State (1.06)
3. Michigan (1.05)
4. Indiana (1.04)
5. Michigan State (1.03)
6. Wisconsin (1.01)
7. Illinois (0.96)
8. Northwestern (0.94)
9. Iowa (0.92)
10. Purdue (0.91)
11. Minnesota (0.83) ¶ 5:00 AM
Defensive efficiency: points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (0.89)
2. Illinois (0.93)
3. Minnesota (0.97)
4. Michigan State (0.98)
5. Ohio State (0.98)
6. Michigan (0.98)
7. Iowa (0.98)
8. Indiana (1.01)
9. Northwestern (1.01)
10. Purdue (1.03)
11. Penn State (1.14) ¶ 4:50 AM
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (0.89)
2. Illinois (0.93)
3. Minnesota (0.97)
4. Michigan State (0.98)
5. Ohio State (0.98)
6. Michigan (0.98)
7. Iowa (0.98)
8. Indiana (1.01)
9. Northwestern (1.01)
10. Purdue (1.03)
11. Penn State (1.14) ¶ 4:50 AM
Efficiency margin: points per possession (PPP) minus opponent PPP (more about these stats)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (+0.16)
2. Wisconsin (+0.12)
3. Michigan (+0.07)
4. Michigan State (+0.05)
5. Indiana (+0.03)
6. Illinois (+0.03)
7. Iowa (-0.06)
8. Northwestern (-0.07)
9. Penn State (-0.08)
10. Purdue (-0.12)
11. Minnesota (-0.14) ¶ 4:40 AM
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (+0.16)
2. Wisconsin (+0.12)
3. Michigan (+0.07)
4. Michigan State (+0.05)
5. Indiana (+0.03)
6. Illinois (+0.03)
7. Iowa (-0.06)
8. Northwestern (-0.07)
9. Penn State (-0.08)
10. Purdue (-0.12)
11. Minnesota (-0.14) ¶ 4:40 AM
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.)
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (56.7)
2. Penn State (55.6)
3. Indiana (53.6)
4. Michigan (52.7)
5. Northwestern (51.3)
6. Wisconsin (49.7)
7. Michigan State (49.6)
8. Purdue (49.5)
9. Illinois (46.5)
10. Iowa (41.7)
11. Minnesota (40.3)
Opponent eFG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (43.3)
2. Illinois (43.4)
3. Iowa (47.3)
4. Michigan (47.6)
5. Ohio State (49.0)
6. Indiana (49.1)
7. Michigan State (49.5)
8. Minnesota (50.6)
9. Purdue (52.1)
10. Northwestern (52.2)
11. Penn State (54.1) ¶ 4:30 AM
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (56.7)
2. Penn State (55.6)
3. Indiana (53.6)
4. Michigan (52.7)
5. Northwestern (51.3)
6. Wisconsin (49.7)
7. Michigan State (49.6)
8. Purdue (49.5)
9. Illinois (46.5)
10. Iowa (41.7)
11. Minnesota (40.3)
Opponent eFG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (43.3)
2. Illinois (43.4)
3. Iowa (47.3)
4. Michigan (47.6)
5. Ohio State (49.0)
6. Indiana (49.1)
7. Michigan State (49.5)
8. Minnesota (50.6)
9. Purdue (52.1)
10. Northwestern (52.2)
11. Penn State (54.1) ¶ 4:30 AM
3FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Indiana (40.0)
2. Michigan (39.8)
3. Ohio State (39.3)
4. Penn State (38.3)
5. Purdue (37.0)
6. Wisconsin (34.0)
7. Northwestern (33.9)
8. Michigan State (33.3)
9. Illinois (32.7)
10. Iowa (27.4)
11. Minnesota (26.7)
Opponent 3FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (27.7)
2. Illinois (28.6)
3. Indiana (28.9)
4. Penn State (33.0)
5. Michigan (33.3)
6. Wisconsin (34.0)
7. Northwestern (34.6)
8. Iowa (34.9)
9. Minnesota (37.1)
10. Michigan State (37.7)
11. Purdue (41.4) ¶ 4:20 AM
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Indiana (40.0)
2. Michigan (39.8)
3. Ohio State (39.3)
4. Penn State (38.3)
5. Purdue (37.0)
6. Wisconsin (34.0)
7. Northwestern (33.9)
8. Michigan State (33.3)
9. Illinois (32.7)
10. Iowa (27.4)
11. Minnesota (26.7)
Opponent 3FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (27.7)
2. Illinois (28.6)
3. Indiana (28.9)
4. Penn State (33.0)
5. Michigan (33.3)
6. Wisconsin (34.0)
7. Northwestern (34.6)
8. Iowa (34.9)
9. Minnesota (37.1)
10. Michigan State (37.7)
11. Purdue (41.4) ¶ 4:20 AM
2FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (55.3)
2. Penn State (54.5)
3. Northwestern (51.6)
4. Indiana (49.7)
5. Michigan (49.7)
6. Michigan State (49.5)
7. Wisconsin (49.0)
8. Purdue (46.6)
9. Illinois (44.8)
10. Iowa (42.0)
11. Minnesota (40.5)
Opponent 2FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (39.2)
2. Illinois (43.6)
3. Iowa (44.6)
4. Michigan State (45.4)
5. Michigan (46.2)
6. Purdue (46.6)
7. Minnesota (48.1)
8. Indiana (51.5)
9. Ohio State (52.0)
10. Northwestern (52.4)
11. Penn State (57.5) ¶ 4:10 AM
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Ohio State (55.3)
2. Penn State (54.5)
3. Northwestern (51.6)
4. Indiana (49.7)
5. Michigan (49.7)
6. Michigan State (49.5)
7. Wisconsin (49.0)
8. Purdue (46.6)
9. Illinois (44.8)
10. Iowa (42.0)
11. Minnesota (40.5)
Opponent 2FG pct.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (39.2)
2. Illinois (43.6)
3. Iowa (44.6)
4. Michigan State (45.4)
5. Michigan (46.2)
6. Purdue (46.6)
7. Minnesota (48.1)
8. Indiana (51.5)
9. Ohio State (52.0)
10. Northwestern (52.4)
11. Penn State (57.5) ¶ 4:10 AM
Turnover percentage
TOs/team possessions
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (17.5)
2. Ohio State (18.2)
3. Illinois (18.9)
4. Michigan State (19.3)
5. Iowa (20.3)
6. Penn State (20.3)
7. Indiana (20.6)
8. Minnesota (21.9)
9. Northwestern (23.3)
10. Michigan (23.9)
11. Purdue (28.6)
Opponent turnover percentage
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Michigan (24.5)
2. Minnesota (24.1)
3. Northwestern (23.9)
4. Ohio State (21.8)
5. Indiana (21.8)
6. Illinois (20.5)
7. Purdue (20.4)
8. Penn State (20.3)
9. Wisconsin (19.8)
10. Michigan State (19.3)
11. Iowa (16.9) ¶ 4:00 AM
TOs/team possessions
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (17.5)
2. Ohio State (18.2)
3. Illinois (18.9)
4. Michigan State (19.3)
5. Iowa (20.3)
6. Penn State (20.3)
7. Indiana (20.6)
8. Minnesota (21.9)
9. Northwestern (23.3)
10. Michigan (23.9)
11. Purdue (28.6)
Opponent turnover percentage
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Michigan (24.5)
2. Minnesota (24.1)
3. Northwestern (23.9)
4. Ohio State (21.8)
5. Indiana (21.8)
6. Illinois (20.5)
7. Purdue (20.4)
8. Penn State (20.3)
9. Wisconsin (19.8)
10. Michigan State (19.3)
11. Iowa (16.9) ¶ 4:00 AM
Offensive rebound pct.
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Michigan (37.7)
2. Penn State (36.1)
3. Purdue (33.2)
4. Ohio State (33.0)
5. Iowa (32.7)
6. Wisconsin (31.0)
7. Minnesota (30.0)
8. Illinois (29.8)
9. Michigan State (29.4)
10. Indiana (28.4)
11. Northwestern (23.4) ¶ 3:50 AM
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Michigan (37.7)
2. Penn State (36.1)
3. Purdue (33.2)
4. Ohio State (33.0)
5. Iowa (32.7)
6. Wisconsin (31.0)
7. Minnesota (30.0)
8. Illinois (29.8)
9. Michigan State (29.4)
10. Indiana (28.4)
11. Northwestern (23.4) ¶ 3:50 AM
Defensive rebound pct.
Dreb pct. = Drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (73.7)
2. Iowa (72.5)
3. Illinois (71.4)
4. Michigan State (70.8)
5. Minnesota (70.1)
6. Purdue (69.5)
7. Penn State (67.3)
8. Ohio State (67.1)
9. Indiana (65.5)
10. Northwestern (64.4)
11. Michigan (61.7) ¶ 3:40 AM
Dreb pct. = Drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (73.7)
2. Iowa (72.5)
3. Illinois (71.4)
4. Michigan State (70.8)
5. Minnesota (70.1)
6. Purdue (69.5)
7. Penn State (67.3)
8. Ohio State (67.1)
9. Indiana (65.5)
10. Northwestern (64.4)
11. Michigan (61.7) ¶ 3:40 AM
Possessions per 40 min.
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (68.5)
2. Indiana (66.9)
3. Ohio State (66.7)
4. Penn State (65.9)
5. Iowa (65.9)
6. Minnesota (65.5)
7. Purdue (65.3)
8. Michigan (65.3)
9. Michigan State (64.2)
10. Illinois (63.4)
11. Northwestern (59.3) ¶ 3:20 AM
Conference games only, thru January 23
1. Wisconsin (68.5)
2. Indiana (66.9)
3. Ohio State (66.7)
4. Penn State (65.9)
5. Iowa (65.9)
6. Minnesota (65.5)
7. Purdue (65.3)
8. Michigan (65.3)
9. Michigan State (64.2)
10. Illinois (63.4)
11. Northwestern (59.3) ¶ 3:20 AM
Scoring efficiency: PPWS (points per weighted shot--more about this stat)
PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))
All games, thru January 23 (15+ min. per game)
1. Foster, OSU 1.42
2. Smith, IL 1.38
3. Abram, MI 1.36
4. Strickland, IN 1.34
5. Davis, MSU 1.32
6. Sims, MI 1.32
7. Brown, MI 1.31
8. Vaden, IN 1.29
9. Augustine, IL 1.27
10. Killingsworth, IN 1.27
11. Butler, OSU 1.26
12. Lewis, OSU 1.26
13. Brown, MSU 1.22
14. Vukusic, NU 1.22
15. Wilmont, IN 1.21
16. Horton, MI 1.21
17. Cornley, PSU 1.20
18. Moore, NU 1.20
19. Sullinger, OSU 1.20
20. Dials, OSU 1.20
21. Doyle, NU 1.18
22. Neitzel, MSU 1.17
23. Ager, MSU 1.17
24. Walker, PSU 1.16
25. Butch, WI 1.16
26. Hansen, IA 1.16
27. Nixon, WI 1.14
28. Hachad, NU 1.14
29. Luber, PSU 1.13
30. Taylor, WI 1.12
31. Flowers, WI 1.11
32. Harris, MI 1.11
33. Parker, PSU 1.10
34. Haluska, IA 1.10
35. Tollackson, MN 1.10
36. Dillon, PUR 1.10
37. Chappell, WI 1.09
38. Lutz, PUR 1.07
39. Hargrow, MN 1.07
40. Hunter, MI 1.06
41. Monroe, IN 1.06
42. Kiefer, PUR 1.06
43. Henderson, IA 1.06
44. McBride, IL 1.06
45. Randle, IL 1.06
46. Jackson, PSU 1.05
47. Sylvester, OSU 1.03
48. Pruitt, IL 1.03
49. Green, PUR 1.02
50. Brown, IL 1.02
51. Brunner, IA 1.01
52. Mayes, OSU 1.00
53. Boone, MN 1.00
54. Grier, MN 0.98
55. Claxton, PSU 0.98
56. Horner, IA 0.97
57. D. Coleman, MN 0.97
58. Thomas, IA 0.95
59. Spates, PUR 0.95
60. Tucker, WI 0.93
61. Walton, MSU 0.93
62. Scott, NU 0.92
63. Williams, NU 0.91
64. Stamper, MN 0.91
65. Freeman, IA 0.85
66. Jenkins, NU 0.80
¶ 3:00 AM
PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))
All games, thru January 23 (15+ min. per game)
1. Foster, OSU 1.42
2. Smith, IL 1.38
3. Abram, MI 1.36
4. Strickland, IN 1.34
5. Davis, MSU 1.32
6. Sims, MI 1.32
7. Brown, MI 1.31
8. Vaden, IN 1.29
9. Augustine, IL 1.27
10. Killingsworth, IN 1.27
11. Butler, OSU 1.26
12. Lewis, OSU 1.26
13. Brown, MSU 1.22
14. Vukusic, NU 1.22
15. Wilmont, IN 1.21
16. Horton, MI 1.21
17. Cornley, PSU 1.20
18. Moore, NU 1.20
19. Sullinger, OSU 1.20
20. Dials, OSU 1.20
21. Doyle, NU 1.18
22. Neitzel, MSU 1.17
23. Ager, MSU 1.17
24. Walker, PSU 1.16
25. Butch, WI 1.16
26. Hansen, IA 1.16
27. Nixon, WI 1.14
28. Hachad, NU 1.14
29. Luber, PSU 1.13
30. Taylor, WI 1.12
31. Flowers, WI 1.11
32. Harris, MI 1.11
33. Parker, PSU 1.10
34. Haluska, IA 1.10
35. Tollackson, MN 1.10
36. Dillon, PUR 1.10
37. Chappell, WI 1.09
38. Lutz, PUR 1.07
39. Hargrow, MN 1.07
40. Hunter, MI 1.06
41. Monroe, IN 1.06
42. Kiefer, PUR 1.06
43. Henderson, IA 1.06
44. McBride, IL 1.06
45. Randle, IL 1.06
46. Jackson, PSU 1.05
47. Sylvester, OSU 1.03
48. Pruitt, IL 1.03
49. Green, PUR 1.02
50. Brown, IL 1.02
51. Brunner, IA 1.01
52. Mayes, OSU 1.00
53. Boone, MN 1.00
54. Grier, MN 0.98
55. Claxton, PSU 0.98
56. Horner, IA 0.97
57. D. Coleman, MN 0.97
58. Thomas, IA 0.95
59. Spates, PUR 0.95
60. Tucker, WI 0.93
61. Walton, MSU 0.93
62. Scott, NU 0.92
63. Williams, NU 0.91
64. Stamper, MN 0.91
65. Freeman, IA 0.85
66. Jenkins, NU 0.80
¶ 3:00 AM
Rebounding pct. (more about this stat)
Reb. pct. = player rebounds/(total rebounds x (player minutes/total minutes))
All games, thru January 23 (15+ min. per game)
1. Davis, MSU 19.7%
2. Brown, MI 19.4%
3. Brunner, IA 17.7%
4. Pruitt, IL 17.0%
5. Kiefer, PUR 16.5%
6. Sims, MI 16.5%
7. Stamper, MN 16.1%
8. Augustine, IL 16.1%
9. Killingsworth, IN 15.8%
10. Sullinger, OSU 15.6%
11. Thomas, IA 15.3%
12. Dials, OSU 14.7%
13. Butch, WI 14.0%
14. Tollackson, MN 13.3%
15. Hunter, MI 13.3%
16. Wilmont, IN 13.0%
17. Claxton, PSU 12.6%
18. Chappell, WI 11.9%
19. Hachad, NU 11.8%
20. Randle, IL 11.6%
21. Parker, PSU 11.5%
22. Hansen, IA 11.5%
23. Cornley, PSU 10.9%
24. Grier, MN 9.7%
25. Tucker, WI 9.7%
26. Scott, NU 9.5%
27. Foster, OSU 9.4%
28. Green, PUR 9.3%
29. D. Coleman, MN 9.0%
30. Lewis, OSU 8.8%
31. Vaden, IN 8.7%
32. Henderson, IA 8.3%
33. Williams, NU 8.1%
34. Doyle, NU 8.1%
35. Monroe, IN 8.0%
36. Hargrow, MN 7.5%
37. Flowers, WI 7.5%
38. Ager, MSU 7.4%
39. Harris, MI 7.3%
40. Jenkins, NU 7.3%
41. Jackson, PSU 7.1%
42. Sylvester, OSU 7.1%
43. Abram, MI 6.8%
44. Haluska, IA 6.8%
45. Butler, OSU 6.6%
46. Strickland, IN 6.6%
47. Brown, MSU 6.3%
48. Vukusic, NU 6.3%
49. Spates, PUR 6.2%
50. Dillon, PUR 5.9%
51. Horner, IA 5.7%
52. Taylor, WI 5.7%
53. Smith, IL 5.5%
54. Moore, NU 5.1%
55. Boone, MN 5.1%
56. Walker, PSU 5.0%
57. Brown, IL 4.9%
58. Walton, MSU 4.9%
59. Horton, MI 4.8%
60. Luber, PSU 4.7%
61. Freeman, IA 4.5%
62. Lutz, PUR 4.5%
63. Nixon, WI 4.0%
64. McBride, IL 3.9%
65. Neitzel, MSU 3.8%
66. Mayes, OSU 3.3%
¶ 2:50 AM
Reb. pct. = player rebounds/(total rebounds x (player minutes/total minutes))
All games, thru January 23 (15+ min. per game)
1. Davis, MSU 19.7%
2. Brown, MI 19.4%
3. Brunner, IA 17.7%
4. Pruitt, IL 17.0%
5. Kiefer, PUR 16.5%
6. Sims, MI 16.5%
7. Stamper, MN 16.1%
8. Augustine, IL 16.1%
9. Killingsworth, IN 15.8%
10. Sullinger, OSU 15.6%
11. Thomas, IA 15.3%
12. Dials, OSU 14.7%
13. Butch, WI 14.0%
14. Tollackson, MN 13.3%
15. Hunter, MI 13.3%
16. Wilmont, IN 13.0%
17. Claxton, PSU 12.6%
18. Chappell, WI 11.9%
19. Hachad, NU 11.8%
20. Randle, IL 11.6%
21. Parker, PSU 11.5%
22. Hansen, IA 11.5%
23. Cornley, PSU 10.9%
24. Grier, MN 9.7%
25. Tucker, WI 9.7%
26. Scott, NU 9.5%
27. Foster, OSU 9.4%
28. Green, PUR 9.3%
29. D. Coleman, MN 9.0%
30. Lewis, OSU 8.8%
31. Vaden, IN 8.7%
32. Henderson, IA 8.3%
33. Williams, NU 8.1%
34. Doyle, NU 8.1%
35. Monroe, IN 8.0%
36. Hargrow, MN 7.5%
37. Flowers, WI 7.5%
38. Ager, MSU 7.4%
39. Harris, MI 7.3%
40. Jenkins, NU 7.3%
41. Jackson, PSU 7.1%
42. Sylvester, OSU 7.1%
43. Abram, MI 6.8%
44. Haluska, IA 6.8%
45. Butler, OSU 6.6%
46. Strickland, IN 6.6%
47. Brown, MSU 6.3%
48. Vukusic, NU 6.3%
49. Spates, PUR 6.2%
50. Dillon, PUR 5.9%
51. Horner, IA 5.7%
52. Taylor, WI 5.7%
53. Smith, IL 5.5%
54. Moore, NU 5.1%
55. Boone, MN 5.1%
56. Walker, PSU 5.0%
57. Brown, IL 4.9%
58. Walton, MSU 4.9%
59. Horton, MI 4.8%
60. Luber, PSU 4.7%
61. Freeman, IA 4.5%
62. Lutz, PUR 4.5%
63. Nixon, WI 4.0%
64. McBride, IL 3.9%
65. Neitzel, MSU 3.8%
66. Mayes, OSU 3.3%
¶ 2:50 AM
Assists per 100 possessions
(Assists/individual possessions) x 100
All games, thru January 23 (15+ min. per game)
1. Horner, IA 11.0
2. Brown, IL 10.1
3. Neitzel, MSU 10.0
4. Horton, MI 9.9
5. Luber, PSU 9.4
6. Walker, PSU 9.3
7. Butler, OSU 9.2
8. Doyle, NU 9.2
9. Walton, MSU 8.1
10. Vaden, IN 7.8
11. Boone, MN 7.7
12. Mayes, OSU 7.4
13. Monroe, IN 7.2
14. Moore, NU 6.7
15. Hargrow, MN 6.3
16. Sylvester, OSU 6.2
17. Jenkins, NU 6.1
18. Harris, MI 6.0
19. Freeman, IA 5.9
20. Chappell, WI 5.7
21. Ager, MSU 5.5
22. Scott, NU 5.3
23. Flowers, WI 5.3
24. Jackson, PSU 5.2
25. Foster, OSU 5.0
26. Brown, MSU 4.8
27. McBride, IL 4.8
28. Nixon, WI 4.7
29. Dillon, PUR 4.6
30. Williams, NU 4.5
31. Kiefer, PUR 4.5
32. Smith, IL 4.3
33. Haluska, IA 4.2
34. Killingsworth, IN 4.2
35. Butch, WI 4.1
36. Taylor, WI 4.0
37. Grier, MN 4.0
38. Spates, PUR 3.9
39. Henderson, IA 3.9
40. Parker, PSU 3.9
41. Strickland, IN 3.8
42. Hachad, NU 3.7
43. Tollackson, MN 3.6
44. Randle, IL 3.5
45. Sullinger, OSU 3.4
46. Brunner, IA 3.4
47. Davis, MSU 3.4
48. Brown, MI 3.3
49. Augustine, IL 3.2
50. Lewis, OSU 3.2
51. Abram, MI 3.0
52. Stamper, MN 2.9
53. Claxton, PSU 2.9
54. Lutz, PUR 2.7
55. Green, PUR 2.7
56. Cornley, PSU 2.6
57. Vukusic, NU 2.4
58. Tucker, WI 2.4
59. Wilmont, IN 2.1
60. Hunter, MI 1.7
61. Sims, MI 1.7
62. D. Coleman, MN 1.4
63. Dials, OSU 1.3
64. Thomas, IA 1.3
65. Pruitt, IL 0.8
66. Hansen, IA 0.8
¶ 2:40 AM
(Assists/individual possessions) x 100
All games, thru January 23 (15+ min. per game)
1. Horner, IA 11.0
2. Brown, IL 10.1
3. Neitzel, MSU 10.0
4. Horton, MI 9.9
5. Luber, PSU 9.4
6. Walker, PSU 9.3
7. Butler, OSU 9.2
8. Doyle, NU 9.2
9. Walton, MSU 8.1
10. Vaden, IN 7.8
11. Boone, MN 7.7
12. Mayes, OSU 7.4
13. Monroe, IN 7.2
14. Moore, NU 6.7
15. Hargrow, MN 6.3
16. Sylvester, OSU 6.2
17. Jenkins, NU 6.1
18. Harris, MI 6.0
19. Freeman, IA 5.9
20. Chappell, WI 5.7
21. Ager, MSU 5.5
22. Scott, NU 5.3
23. Flowers, WI 5.3
24. Jackson, PSU 5.2
25. Foster, OSU 5.0
26. Brown, MSU 4.8
27. McBride, IL 4.8
28. Nixon, WI 4.7
29. Dillon, PUR 4.6
30. Williams, NU 4.5
31. Kiefer, PUR 4.5
32. Smith, IL 4.3
33. Haluska, IA 4.2
34. Killingsworth, IN 4.2
35. Butch, WI 4.1
36. Taylor, WI 4.0
37. Grier, MN 4.0
38. Spates, PUR 3.9
39. Henderson, IA 3.9
40. Parker, PSU 3.9
41. Strickland, IN 3.8
42. Hachad, NU 3.7
43. Tollackson, MN 3.6
44. Randle, IL 3.5
45. Sullinger, OSU 3.4
46. Brunner, IA 3.4
47. Davis, MSU 3.4
48. Brown, MI 3.3
49. Augustine, IL 3.2
50. Lewis, OSU 3.2
51. Abram, MI 3.0
52. Stamper, MN 2.9
53. Claxton, PSU 2.9
54. Lutz, PUR 2.7
55. Green, PUR 2.7
56. Cornley, PSU 2.6
57. Vukusic, NU 2.4
58. Tucker, WI 2.4
59. Wilmont, IN 2.1
60. Hunter, MI 1.7
61. Sims, MI 1.7
62. D. Coleman, MN 1.4
63. Dials, OSU 1.3
64. Thomas, IA 1.3
65. Pruitt, IL 0.8
66. Hansen, IA 0.8
¶ 2:40 AM
Turnovers per 100 possessions
(Individual TOs/individual possessions) x 100
All games, thru January 23 (from worst to best--15+ min. per game)
1. Killingsworth, IN 8.9
2. Spates, PUR 7.6
3. Sims, MI 6.9
4. Hachad, NU 6.5
5. Hunter, MI 6.5
6. Green, PUR 6.3
7. Freeman, IA 5.9
8. Vaden, IN 5.7
9. Doyle, NU 5.6
10. Grier, MN 5.6
11. Horton, MI 5.6
12. Lutz, PUR 5.6
13. Lewis, OSU 5.5
14. Luber, PSU 5.2
15. Brown, IL 5.1
16. Hargrow, MN 5.0
17. Brunner, IA 4.9
18. Henderson, IA 4.8
19. Taylor, WI 4.8
20. Tollackson, MN 4.7
21. Dillon, PUR 4.7
22. Mayes, OSU 4.6
23. Parker, PSU 4.6
24. Claxton, PSU 4.5
25. Foster, OSU 4.4
26. Boone, MN 4.3
27. Horner, IA 4.3
28. Smith, IL 4.3
29. Davis, MSU 4.3
30. Augustine, IL 4.2
31. Ager, MSU 4.1
32. Hansen, IA 4.1
33. Sylvester, OSU 4.0
34. Thomas, IA 4.0
35. Sullinger, OSU 4.0
36. Dials, OSU 4.0
37. Brown, MSU 3.9
38. Walton, MSU 3.9
39. Williams, NU 3.8
40. Kiefer, PUR 3.8
41. Neitzel, MSU 3.7
42. Randle, IL 3.7
43. Vukusic, NU 3.6
44. Tucker, WI 3.5
45. Stamper, MN 3.5
46. Monroe, IN 3.5
47. Brown, MI 3.4
48. Cornley, PSU 3.4
49. Chappell, WI 3.3
50. Jenkins, NU 3.3
51. Jackson, PSU 3.2
52. Pruitt, IL 3.2
53. D. Coleman, MN 3.2
54. Butch, WI 3.1
55. Abram, MI 3.1
56. McBride, IL 3.1
57. Scott, NU 3.1
58. Haluska, IA 3.1
59. Flowers, WI 3.0
60. Butler, OSU 2.7
61. Harris, MI 2.5
62. Walker, PSU 2.4
63. Strickland, IN 2.3
64. Moore, NU 2.2
65. Nixon, WI 1.6
66. Wilmont, IN 1.1
¶ 2:30 AM
(Individual TOs/individual possessions) x 100
All games, thru January 23 (from worst to best--15+ min. per game)
1. Killingsworth, IN 8.9
2. Spates, PUR 7.6
3. Sims, MI 6.9
4. Hachad, NU 6.5
5. Hunter, MI 6.5
6. Green, PUR 6.3
7. Freeman, IA 5.9
8. Vaden, IN 5.7
9. Doyle, NU 5.6
10. Grier, MN 5.6
11. Horton, MI 5.6
12. Lutz, PUR 5.6
13. Lewis, OSU 5.5
14. Luber, PSU 5.2
15. Brown, IL 5.1
16. Hargrow, MN 5.0
17. Brunner, IA 4.9
18. Henderson, IA 4.8
19. Taylor, WI 4.8
20. Tollackson, MN 4.7
21. Dillon, PUR 4.7
22. Mayes, OSU 4.6
23. Parker, PSU 4.6
24. Claxton, PSU 4.5
25. Foster, OSU 4.4
26. Boone, MN 4.3
27. Horner, IA 4.3
28. Smith, IL 4.3
29. Davis, MSU 4.3
30. Augustine, IL 4.2
31. Ager, MSU 4.1
32. Hansen, IA 4.1
33. Sylvester, OSU 4.0
34. Thomas, IA 4.0
35. Sullinger, OSU 4.0
36. Dials, OSU 4.0
37. Brown, MSU 3.9
38. Walton, MSU 3.9
39. Williams, NU 3.8
40. Kiefer, PUR 3.8
41. Neitzel, MSU 3.7
42. Randle, IL 3.7
43. Vukusic, NU 3.6
44. Tucker, WI 3.5
45. Stamper, MN 3.5
46. Monroe, IN 3.5
47. Brown, MI 3.4
48. Cornley, PSU 3.4
49. Chappell, WI 3.3
50. Jenkins, NU 3.3
51. Jackson, PSU 3.2
52. Pruitt, IL 3.2
53. D. Coleman, MN 3.2
54. Butch, WI 3.1
55. Abram, MI 3.1
56. McBride, IL 3.1
57. Scott, NU 3.1
58. Haluska, IA 3.1
59. Flowers, WI 3.0
60. Butler, OSU 2.7
61. Harris, MI 2.5
62. Walker, PSU 2.4
63. Strickland, IN 2.3
64. Moore, NU 2.2
65. Nixon, WI 1.6
66. Wilmont, IN 1.1
¶ 2:30 AM
Monday, January 23, 2006
That good or that bad?
One weekend of Big Ten hoops, six games, and, by my lights, four surprises--if not in who won, then by how much. When confronted with a surprise, the question that occurs is this: is the winner that good or is the loser that bad?
Forget Notre Dame--maybe the 12th Big Ten team should be North Dakota State
North Dakota State beat Wisconsin 62-55 in Madison Saturday. Yes. In Madison. In the Kohl Center.
Here it was: Wisconsin's reductio ad absurdum. Alando Tucker takes more shots than any other Badger and Tucker misses a ton of shots: QED, Wisconsin misses a ton of shots, right? Well, no, not really. At least not until Saturday. UW had managed to transcend Tucker's prolific rim-denting and put points on the board because, like industrious subordinates covering for an incompetent boss, the non-Tucker Badgers had proven to be notably efficient in translating shots into points.
But it all fell apart Saturday. Tucker ricocheted from inefficient to indescribable--and his teammates followed him into the abyss. Wisconsin missed 56 shots against the Bison. (True story: I let out a horrified yelp, audible to the Wonk Wife, when I opened this box score Saturday afternoon.)
How bad is that? Perhaps the words "worse than Maryland-Eastern Shore" capture the futility best....
Lowest effective FG pct. by or against a Big Ten team, 2005-06
1. Wisconsin (vs. North Dakota State): 25.0
2. Maryland-Eastern Shore (vs. Iowa): 28.0
3. Seton Hall (vs. Northwestern): 29.4
4. Tennessee-Martin (vs. Purdue): 30.8
5. Iowa (vs. NC State): 31.6
Tucker was 2-of-18. Kammron Taylor was 6-of-24.
Is this a fluke? Of course. (At ESPN.com this morning, Andy Katz calls it "the season's biggest upset." Stewart Mandel agrees at SI.com.) But it's a fluke that speaks to a continuing concern for Wisconsin: despite averaging 18.7 points a game, Tucker is in fact a much less efficient scorer (0.93 PPWS) than Bracey Wright was in 2005 (1.08). And, like "worse than Maryland-Eastern Shore," the words "much less efficient than Bracey Wright" say a lot.
Can the Hawkeyes play D in calendar 2006 if the other jersey does not say "Illinois"?
Just 16 short days ago, Iowa was beating Illinois by 15, the fans were storming the court at Carver-Hawkeye, Steve Alford had finally--in his seventh year in Iowa City--achieved the kind of defense that got him the job in the first place, and all was right with the world.
Now look. The Hawkeyes were blown off the court by Michigan State on Saturday, 85-55. Don't be fooled by the score--it wasn't that close. The Spartans could have easily ventured north of 90 but Tom Izzo had a bench full of who-dats to showcase. Iowa was outscored by the big three of Mo Ager (25 points), Paul Davis (19) and Shannon Brown (17) alone. (Box score.)
For Iowa fans, the ominous here-we-go-again possibility is this: the Hawkeyes' defensive woes have not been limited to just this one game and, worse, are not merely a matter of facing better competition in conference play. Iowa's strong non-conference schedule in fact gives us enough "major" conference opponents for a rough comparison of five games then versus five games now:
Iowa defense vs. Kentucky, Texas, NC State, Iowa State, and Arizona State: 0.83 points per possession
Iowa defense vs. Wisconsin, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan State: 0.98 PPP
Simply put, the Hawkeye D has taken a step back. And if this team doesn't have D, they don't have anything.
As for the Spartans, not to put too fine a point on it but they're the best team in the Big Ten right now. In their last three games they've defeated Indiana, Ohio State, and Iowa--and by far the worst performance of the three was the win against the Buckeyes: a road win over a ranked opponent. Over the course of those three games MSU's scored 1.12 points per possession and allowed just 0.90.
In other words, after 16 games of more or less uneven play, the Spartans have at last put together three games that add up to classic Final Four numbers (i.e., an efficiency margin north of 0.20.). Should we believe the first 16 or the last three? In the near-term, at least, we're likely to see more support for believing the latter. If State takes care of business Wednesday night in Ann Arbor, they'll be looking at a W smorgasbord: Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue, and Minnesota. They've earned it.
Watch out for falling expectations
The total collapse of Minnesota has been swift and stunning. We saw a similar implosion two years ago and the consensus chalked it up to the NBA-targeted me-first play of Kris Humphries.
Maybe we all owe Humphries an apology. This year's Gopher roster has no one who will ever come closer to the next level than an Antonio Davis visit to their seat. And yet here we are again. Minnesota is busily disintegrating.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's the defense that's failed the Gophers this year. Their offense is woeful, it's true, but it was (almost) as bad last year. Having one of the best defenses in the nation covered a multitude of offensive sins in 2005.
Not so this year. Big Ten opponents have hit 37 percent of their threes against Minnesota--and that includes Iowa's 1-for-20 effort from outside the arc. (Last year in-conference: 27 percent.) The 2005-vintage Gophers would not have permitted Daniel Horton to come into Williams Arena and hit six threes, as he did Saturday night in Michigan's surprisingly easy 71-55 victory. (Box score.)
The Michigan half of the question (are they that good?) is easy enough: we don't know that they're as good as they looked. Granted, it's not their fault that they were playing Minnesota but, um, they were playing Minnesota: everyone (except Iowa) shoots well from the outside and everyone's D looks good when the Gophers are the opponent. Let's see what happens Wednesday night against Michigan State.
O, D.J., where art thou?
Indiana beat Purdue 62-49 Saturday in Bloomington, as the notably low-scoring Hoosiers hit only 37 percent of their two-point shots--their worst performance of the year inside the arc. (Box score.) The surprise here isn't the score, it's the fact that the Boilers were actually in this game until the final few minutes--and that they did it with no help from three-land (3-of-12). For the second consecutive game, the Hoosiers conferred the adjective "career-high" upon a Chicago-bred opposing post player's scoring total. First it was Shaun Pruitt of Illinois recording 17 points. On Saturday it was Marcus White's turn: the Connecticut transfer scored 19 points in 22 minutes.
So the book, it would seem, is clear. Take it inside against IU: Marco Killingsworth (like Terence Dials last year and, maybe, this year) will mince daintily out of the way of any and all contact for fear of picking up a foul (he's there to score, thank you); Robert Vaden is very tough but very undersized; and Ben Allen is a human stat-stuffer for opposing post players. Ten other coaches in the conference are reading said book: Indiana's Big Ten opponents have devoted just 29 percent of their shots to threes. Only Ohio State's opponents (28 percent 3FGA/FGA) have pounded it inside with more single-mindedness.
BONUS clarification! Last week I shared the fruits of my possession-by-possession charting of the Indiana-Illinois game and noted that the IU defense was vastly more effective for the 58 or so possessions when Killingsworth was on the floor than it was for the eight or so possessions when he was on the bench. This was indeed the case but I offered this nugget more in a Roethlisberger-makes-the-big-tackle tone than in any dispositive sense. It need hardly be said, surely, that eight possessions aren't enough to overturn the verdict of our eyes. Watch the tape of Pruitt (no Paul Davis he) driving baseline on Killingsworth early in the first half. High school coaches from Bangor to Bakersfield are using that tape to show their big men what not to do on D.
Etc. Your intrepid blogger's been watching hoops for a long while but I've never seen what happened to Matt Kiefer happen before. Off an IU turnover, Kiefer went in for an uncontested breakaway dunk, threw the ball down with two hands--and it came back out. Replays showed the ball went all the way down past the rim but the net caught it and tossed it back up through the cylinder. Incredible.
No surprises here, folks. Move along....
Illinois beat Northwestern 58-47 in Evanston Saturday. (Box score.) Bruce Weber's team is a weird hybrid: best defense in the Big Ten right now (Vedran Vukusic went 1-of-14) but also a POT (meaning lots of attempted threes but not many turnovers or offensive rebounds). Those two don't usually go together but it's becoming increasingly clear that this is what we have in Champaign this year. The good news is it simplifies things analytically: Michigan notwithstanding, an Illinois opponent isn't going to score a lot of points. Consequently, if the Illini are hitting their threes they'll probably win (42 percent in their three conference wins). If they're not they may well lose (17 percent in their two conference losses).
Ohio State beat Penn State 75-64 Saturday in State College. (Box score.) The Nittany Lions were in this most of the way and, indeed, if they could have hit some threes (they were 3-of-19) and taken care of business on the defensive glass (they allowed the Buckeyes to post a 42.3 offensive reb. pct.) things could have been interesting. But then such is the grammar in which PSU has found itself imprisoned for five long years: their best-case scenario is to be spoken of in the subjunctive in a close loss.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
COMING tomorrow! I'll make the jump to in-conference numbers for this blog's tempo-free team stats. Mmmm, in-conference: tempo-free numbers compiled against very similar opponents. (In the admirably symmetrical Pac 10, where every team plays every other team home and away, these would be well nigh the Archimedean ideal. Go to it, yet-to-emerge Pac 10 Wonk!) Tune in tomorrow!
Michigan wing Lester Abram sprained his left ankle in Saturday's win at Minnesota and his status is in doubt for the Michigan State game Wednesday night.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate
Wonk,
You stated IU was a Big Ten contender after winning "ugly" against Illinois Well, this weekend's victory over Purdue was the clinical definition of UGLY.
I feel IU is more of a pretender than contender, with two straight offensive struggles. IU didn't deserve to win but, thankfully, they played the walking wounded remaining at Purdue. With a game at Iowa next, Coach Davis better get the O fixed, pronto. Wilmont had another good game (as compared to everyone else) and IU will need him to play well, as A.J. Ratliff isn't doing much right now.
The player of the game was Sean Kline....okay, maybe not the player of the game, but his block of Kiefer led to a Wilmont three and a charge he took a few possessions later sealed the game. IU will need him to eat minutes when Killingsworth needs a rest (or is in foul trouble). Though, Kiefer's missed dunk was a bit of a highlight too, it pretty much sums up Purdue's season.
Thanks for the time to rant.
Nate D.
Indy
Thanks, Nate! ¶ 6:07 AM
One weekend of Big Ten hoops, six games, and, by my lights, four surprises--if not in who won, then by how much. When confronted with a surprise, the question that occurs is this: is the winner that good or is the loser that bad?
Forget Notre Dame--maybe the 12th Big Ten team should be North Dakota State
North Dakota State beat Wisconsin 62-55 in Madison Saturday. Yes. In Madison. In the Kohl Center.
Here it was: Wisconsin's reductio ad absurdum. Alando Tucker takes more shots than any other Badger and Tucker misses a ton of shots: QED, Wisconsin misses a ton of shots, right? Well, no, not really. At least not until Saturday. UW had managed to transcend Tucker's prolific rim-denting and put points on the board because, like industrious subordinates covering for an incompetent boss, the non-Tucker Badgers had proven to be notably efficient in translating shots into points.
But it all fell apart Saturday. Tucker ricocheted from inefficient to indescribable--and his teammates followed him into the abyss. Wisconsin missed 56 shots against the Bison. (True story: I let out a horrified yelp, audible to the Wonk Wife, when I opened this box score Saturday afternoon.)
How bad is that? Perhaps the words "worse than Maryland-Eastern Shore" capture the futility best....
Lowest effective FG pct. by or against a Big Ten team, 2005-06
1. Wisconsin (vs. North Dakota State): 25.0
2. Maryland-Eastern Shore (vs. Iowa): 28.0
3. Seton Hall (vs. Northwestern): 29.4
4. Tennessee-Martin (vs. Purdue): 30.8
5. Iowa (vs. NC State): 31.6
Tucker was 2-of-18. Kammron Taylor was 6-of-24.
Is this a fluke? Of course. (At ESPN.com this morning, Andy Katz calls it "the season's biggest upset." Stewart Mandel agrees at SI.com.) But it's a fluke that speaks to a continuing concern for Wisconsin: despite averaging 18.7 points a game, Tucker is in fact a much less efficient scorer (0.93 PPWS) than Bracey Wright was in 2005 (1.08). And, like "worse than Maryland-Eastern Shore," the words "much less efficient than Bracey Wright" say a lot.
Can the Hawkeyes play D in calendar 2006 if the other jersey does not say "Illinois"?
Just 16 short days ago, Iowa was beating Illinois by 15, the fans were storming the court at Carver-Hawkeye, Steve Alford had finally--in his seventh year in Iowa City--achieved the kind of defense that got him the job in the first place, and all was right with the world.
Now look. The Hawkeyes were blown off the court by Michigan State on Saturday, 85-55. Don't be fooled by the score--it wasn't that close. The Spartans could have easily ventured north of 90 but Tom Izzo had a bench full of who-dats to showcase. Iowa was outscored by the big three of Mo Ager (25 points), Paul Davis (19) and Shannon Brown (17) alone. (Box score.)
For Iowa fans, the ominous here-we-go-again possibility is this: the Hawkeyes' defensive woes have not been limited to just this one game and, worse, are not merely a matter of facing better competition in conference play. Iowa's strong non-conference schedule in fact gives us enough "major" conference opponents for a rough comparison of five games then versus five games now:
Iowa defense vs. Kentucky, Texas, NC State, Iowa State, and Arizona State: 0.83 points per possession
Iowa defense vs. Wisconsin, Illinois, Penn State, Minnesota, and Michigan State: 0.98 PPP
Simply put, the Hawkeye D has taken a step back. And if this team doesn't have D, they don't have anything.
As for the Spartans, not to put too fine a point on it but they're the best team in the Big Ten right now. In their last three games they've defeated Indiana, Ohio State, and Iowa--and by far the worst performance of the three was the win against the Buckeyes: a road win over a ranked opponent. Over the course of those three games MSU's scored 1.12 points per possession and allowed just 0.90.
In other words, after 16 games of more or less uneven play, the Spartans have at last put together three games that add up to classic Final Four numbers (i.e., an efficiency margin north of 0.20.). Should we believe the first 16 or the last three? In the near-term, at least, we're likely to see more support for believing the latter. If State takes care of business Wednesday night in Ann Arbor, they'll be looking at a W smorgasbord: Penn State, Northwestern, Purdue, and Minnesota. They've earned it.
Watch out for falling expectations
The total collapse of Minnesota has been swift and stunning. We saw a similar implosion two years ago and the consensus chalked it up to the NBA-targeted me-first play of Kris Humphries.
Maybe we all owe Humphries an apology. This year's Gopher roster has no one who will ever come closer to the next level than an Antonio Davis visit to their seat. And yet here we are again. Minnesota is busily disintegrating.
At the risk of sounding like a broken record, it's the defense that's failed the Gophers this year. Their offense is woeful, it's true, but it was (almost) as bad last year. Having one of the best defenses in the nation covered a multitude of offensive sins in 2005.
Not so this year. Big Ten opponents have hit 37 percent of their threes against Minnesota--and that includes Iowa's 1-for-20 effort from outside the arc. (Last year in-conference: 27 percent.) The 2005-vintage Gophers would not have permitted Daniel Horton to come into Williams Arena and hit six threes, as he did Saturday night in Michigan's surprisingly easy 71-55 victory. (Box score.)
The Michigan half of the question (are they that good?) is easy enough: we don't know that they're as good as they looked. Granted, it's not their fault that they were playing Minnesota but, um, they were playing Minnesota: everyone (except Iowa) shoots well from the outside and everyone's D looks good when the Gophers are the opponent. Let's see what happens Wednesday night against Michigan State.
O, D.J., where art thou?
Indiana beat Purdue 62-49 Saturday in Bloomington, as the notably low-scoring Hoosiers hit only 37 percent of their two-point shots--their worst performance of the year inside the arc. (Box score.) The surprise here isn't the score, it's the fact that the Boilers were actually in this game until the final few minutes--and that they did it with no help from three-land (3-of-12). For the second consecutive game, the Hoosiers conferred the adjective "career-high" upon a Chicago-bred opposing post player's scoring total. First it was Shaun Pruitt of Illinois recording 17 points. On Saturday it was Marcus White's turn: the Connecticut transfer scored 19 points in 22 minutes.
So the book, it would seem, is clear. Take it inside against IU: Marco Killingsworth (like Terence Dials last year and, maybe, this year) will mince daintily out of the way of any and all contact for fear of picking up a foul (he's there to score, thank you); Robert Vaden is very tough but very undersized; and Ben Allen is a human stat-stuffer for opposing post players. Ten other coaches in the conference are reading said book: Indiana's Big Ten opponents have devoted just 29 percent of their shots to threes. Only Ohio State's opponents (28 percent 3FGA/FGA) have pounded it inside with more single-mindedness.
BONUS clarification! Last week I shared the fruits of my possession-by-possession charting of the Indiana-Illinois game and noted that the IU defense was vastly more effective for the 58 or so possessions when Killingsworth was on the floor than it was for the eight or so possessions when he was on the bench. This was indeed the case but I offered this nugget more in a Roethlisberger-makes-the-big-tackle tone than in any dispositive sense. It need hardly be said, surely, that eight possessions aren't enough to overturn the verdict of our eyes. Watch the tape of Pruitt (no Paul Davis he) driving baseline on Killingsworth early in the first half. High school coaches from Bangor to Bakersfield are using that tape to show their big men what not to do on D.
Etc. Your intrepid blogger's been watching hoops for a long while but I've never seen what happened to Matt Kiefer happen before. Off an IU turnover, Kiefer went in for an uncontested breakaway dunk, threw the ball down with two hands--and it came back out. Replays showed the ball went all the way down past the rim but the net caught it and tossed it back up through the cylinder. Incredible.
No surprises here, folks. Move along....
Illinois beat Northwestern 58-47 in Evanston Saturday. (Box score.) Bruce Weber's team is a weird hybrid: best defense in the Big Ten right now (Vedran Vukusic went 1-of-14) but also a POT (meaning lots of attempted threes but not many turnovers or offensive rebounds). Those two don't usually go together but it's becoming increasingly clear that this is what we have in Champaign this year. The good news is it simplifies things analytically: Michigan notwithstanding, an Illinois opponent isn't going to score a lot of points. Consequently, if the Illini are hitting their threes they'll probably win (42 percent in their three conference wins). If they're not they may well lose (17 percent in their two conference losses).
Ohio State beat Penn State 75-64 Saturday in State College. (Box score.) The Nittany Lions were in this most of the way and, indeed, if they could have hit some threes (they were 3-of-19) and taken care of business on the defensive glass (they allowed the Buckeyes to post a 42.3 offensive reb. pct.) things could have been interesting. But then such is the grammar in which PSU has found itself imprisoned for five long years: their best-case scenario is to be spoken of in the subjunctive in a close loss.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
COMING tomorrow! I'll make the jump to in-conference numbers for this blog's tempo-free team stats. Mmmm, in-conference: tempo-free numbers compiled against very similar opponents. (In the admirably symmetrical Pac 10, where every team plays every other team home and away, these would be well nigh the Archimedean ideal. Go to it, yet-to-emerge Pac 10 Wonk!) Tune in tomorrow!
Michigan wing Lester Abram sprained his left ankle in Saturday's win at Minnesota and his status is in doubt for the Michigan State game Wednesday night.
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Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate
Wonk,
You stated IU was a Big Ten contender after winning "ugly" against Illinois Well, this weekend's victory over Purdue was the clinical definition of UGLY.
I feel IU is more of a pretender than contender, with two straight offensive struggles. IU didn't deserve to win but, thankfully, they played the walking wounded remaining at Purdue. With a game at Iowa next, Coach Davis better get the O fixed, pronto. Wilmont had another good game (as compared to everyone else) and IU will need him to play well, as A.J. Ratliff isn't doing much right now.
The player of the game was Sean Kline....okay, maybe not the player of the game, but his block of Kiefer led to a Wilmont three and a charge he took a few possessions later sealed the game. IU will need him to eat minutes when Killingsworth needs a rest (or is in foul trouble). Though, Kiefer's missed dunk was a bit of a highlight too, it pretty much sums up Purdue's season.
Thanks for the time to rant.
Nate D.
Indy
Thanks, Nate! ¶ 6:07 AM
Friday, January 20, 2006
In today's more Wonk-ish venues....
No games to recap this morning so I have a chance to comment on some items that have been meriting comment for a while....
New wine, old bottle
Startlingly savvy as you alert readers have proven yourselves to be, I know you already know this, but: Ken Pomeroy's blog now has individual tempo-free stats on every D-I player in the country. (For instance, here is the Wisconsin page.) Let's see. How can I phrase this?...This is gold. Small daily miracles like this--a guy with a day job posting stats that are more complete and vastly more informative than those offered by any national content provider--are what get me out of bed in the morning. Indefatigable hoops oracle Ken Pomeroy, Wonk salutes you!
New wine, new bottle
Speaking of canonical bloggers, Ryan Kobliska of Hawkeye Hoops fame has opened a supra-Big Ten oriented branch office under the heading of The Basketball Notebook. Already in its young blogospheric life, the Notebook has proven itself to be every bit as informative and insightful as good old HH--and that's saying something. Alert readers, I heartily commend you to make haste and link! (Right after you finish up here.)
Um, Wonk's wine-based metaphor officially peters out here
For those of you who missed the New York Times article on "Illini Guy," here it is. Money graf:
During the game, the Illini Guy refused to answer phone calls. Someone tried the doorbell, which plays the Illinois fight song, but the Illini Guy stuck with his Saturday game plan: watching Illinois basketball.
Seems perfectly sane to me.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The conventional wisdom: it's a good thing for the rest of the Big Ten that Ohio State beat Wisconsin in Columbus Wednesday night. Now where have I heard this before? Hmmm.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan State plays Iowa in East Lansing (ESPN, Noon ET). Best post scorer in the Big Ten (Paul Davis) vs. best post defender (Erek Hansen). If Hansen can stay away from fouls and on the floor it could be fun to watch. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes come into this contest having defeated Penn State and Minnesota by only four points apiece (the latter at home in three OTs, no less). That won't get it done in the Breslin Center....Tom Izzo says he sees progress on defense....Spartan miscellany here.
Penn State plays Ohio State in State College, which gives "State" three uses in this stately sentence alone. (No, wait--four!) Profile of Nittany Lion guard Mike Walker here. Alert reader JDS asks: "Am I crazy for thinking that the Nittany Lions will shock everyone by giving Ohio State a scare--maybe even winning?" Yes! You're crazy! Next topic! Oh, wait, there's more from JDS: "Penn State has what passes for momentum with the (scoff) Purdue win and (what's this?) a close one against Iowa. Plus the beating they took in Columbus has to mean some sort of revenge-mindedness in Happy Valley." Egad! JDS makes some good points! And yet the Nittany Lions have seemingly always lost by 30 just when you think maybe they've turned a corner (see not only Ohio State but also the Pitt game this year). Stay tuned....
Indiana plays Purdue in Bloomington. In a special all-Davis write up at SI.com this morning, Seth Davis salutes Hoosier coach Mike Davis. "I love Mike Davis," says former California Governor Gray Davis. Geena Davis wants Mike Davis to do a cameo on "Commander in Chief." Meanwhile, Davis Love III offers the IU coach tips on his long irons. Rumors that Davis plans to unwind in the offseason by retreating to his vacation home in Davis, California, and watching Davis Cup matches while listening to Miles Davis could not be confirmed.
Northwestern plays Illinois in Evanston, where a sellout is cause for a special advisory to fans: arrive early!
Minnesota plays Michigan in Minneapolis. Gopher freshman Brandon Smith has been declared academically ineligible and will not play for the remainder of the season....In this morning's Detroit News, Jim Spadafore says Courtney Sims' "roller-coaster play has been puzzling." The Wolverines will need the big guy tomorrow and, especially, next week when they host Michigan State and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin plays North Dakota State in Madison. After not traveling with the team to Columbus for Wednesday night's game against Ohio State, Badger freshman Marcus Landry practiced with the Badgers yesterday. No official word from the school yet--if Landry is academically ineligible, he can practice but not play in games or travel with the team.
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Wha? A Badger fan criticizing Alando Tucker?
Wonk,
Let me put aside my general complaints about the OSU-Wisconsin game. Wisconsin was seriously under-staffed against the Buckeyes, and evidently Terence Dials is allowed to hip-check on screens. (I know, I know. All Big Ten teams get home cookin'--part of why Bo Ryan's lost only one conference game at the Kohl.)
I'm an unabashed fan of the Badgers and generally have felt that Alando Tucker is among the elite players in the Big Televen. So far this season, however, I'm not sure that that is a supportable position. The OSU game on Wednesday is just the latest example of Tucker's inability to shoot well enough to be trusted with 15-20 shots per game.
Most of his shots come from the interior (and when they come from three, he's shooting just 28 percent). He draws a ton of fouls, but he's shooting only 47 percent from the line. He draws a lot of double or triple teams, but he rarely finds the open man (just 24 assists, fewer than any other Badger starter despite the double teams).
I love to see him work in the lane. There's no doubt his leadership is huge and he's made some memorable crunch time shots in his career. He's athletic, plays hard, and can be unstoppable. But against OSU he was clanking a lot of short range shots and missing front ends of one-and-ones down the stretch.
When your team loses two important players before the game, and then Butch tweaks his ankle, your top guy needs to step it up to win on the road. That's what elite players do and that's what Alando Tucker did not do.
I hope Tucker's shooting improves. But if it doesn't, the Badgers may have a tough time closing out close games with a hack-a-Tuck strategy coming into vogue.
Thanks for your effort. You're a daily read.
Brian H.
Tucker does indeed miss a ton of shots and I'll grant you that it's a little jarring to hear pundits blithely locking him in as first-team All-Big Ten with no mention at all of this fact.
But: for the sake of discussion let's imagine Tucker incurring the latest in a series of foot injuries and being sidelined for the rest of the year. Wisconsin without Tucker would, I think, plummet rapidly and dramatically. He's not playing as well as he can. And yet he may still be the best player on the team. ¶ 6:33 AM
No games to recap this morning so I have a chance to comment on some items that have been meriting comment for a while....
New wine, old bottle
Startlingly savvy as you alert readers have proven yourselves to be, I know you already know this, but: Ken Pomeroy's blog now has individual tempo-free stats on every D-I player in the country. (For instance, here is the Wisconsin page.) Let's see. How can I phrase this?...This is gold. Small daily miracles like this--a guy with a day job posting stats that are more complete and vastly more informative than those offered by any national content provider--are what get me out of bed in the morning. Indefatigable hoops oracle Ken Pomeroy, Wonk salutes you!
New wine, new bottle
Speaking of canonical bloggers, Ryan Kobliska of Hawkeye Hoops fame has opened a supra-Big Ten oriented branch office under the heading of The Basketball Notebook. Already in its young blogospheric life, the Notebook has proven itself to be every bit as informative and insightful as good old HH--and that's saying something. Alert readers, I heartily commend you to make haste and link! (Right after you finish up here.)
Um, Wonk's wine-based metaphor officially peters out here
For those of you who missed the New York Times article on "Illini Guy," here it is. Money graf:
During the game, the Illini Guy refused to answer phone calls. Someone tried the doorbell, which plays the Illinois fight song, but the Illini Guy stuck with his Saturday game plan: watching Illinois basketball.
Seems perfectly sane to me.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The conventional wisdom: it's a good thing for the rest of the Big Ten that Ohio State beat Wisconsin in Columbus Wednesday night. Now where have I heard this before? Hmmm.
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan State plays Iowa in East Lansing (ESPN, Noon ET). Best post scorer in the Big Ten (Paul Davis) vs. best post defender (Erek Hansen). If Hansen can stay away from fouls and on the floor it could be fun to watch. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes come into this contest having defeated Penn State and Minnesota by only four points apiece (the latter at home in three OTs, no less). That won't get it done in the Breslin Center....Tom Izzo says he sees progress on defense....Spartan miscellany here.
Penn State plays Ohio State in State College, which gives "State" three uses in this stately sentence alone. (No, wait--four!) Profile of Nittany Lion guard Mike Walker here. Alert reader JDS asks: "Am I crazy for thinking that the Nittany Lions will shock everyone by giving Ohio State a scare--maybe even winning?" Yes! You're crazy! Next topic! Oh, wait, there's more from JDS: "Penn State has what passes for momentum with the (scoff) Purdue win and (what's this?) a close one against Iowa. Plus the beating they took in Columbus has to mean some sort of revenge-mindedness in Happy Valley." Egad! JDS makes some good points! And yet the Nittany Lions have seemingly always lost by 30 just when you think maybe they've turned a corner (see not only Ohio State but also the Pitt game this year). Stay tuned....
Indiana plays Purdue in Bloomington. In a special all-Davis write up at SI.com this morning, Seth Davis salutes Hoosier coach Mike Davis. "I love Mike Davis," says former California Governor Gray Davis. Geena Davis wants Mike Davis to do a cameo on "Commander in Chief." Meanwhile, Davis Love III offers the IU coach tips on his long irons. Rumors that Davis plans to unwind in the offseason by retreating to his vacation home in Davis, California, and watching Davis Cup matches while listening to Miles Davis could not be confirmed.
Northwestern plays Illinois in Evanston, where a sellout is cause for a special advisory to fans: arrive early!
Minnesota plays Michigan in Minneapolis. Gopher freshman Brandon Smith has been declared academically ineligible and will not play for the remainder of the season....In this morning's Detroit News, Jim Spadafore says Courtney Sims' "roller-coaster play has been puzzling." The Wolverines will need the big guy tomorrow and, especially, next week when they host Michigan State and Wisconsin.
Wisconsin plays North Dakota State in Madison. After not traveling with the team to Columbus for Wednesday night's game against Ohio State, Badger freshman Marcus Landry practiced with the Badgers yesterday. No official word from the school yet--if Landry is academically ineligible, he can practice but not play in games or travel with the team.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Wha? A Badger fan criticizing Alando Tucker?
Wonk,
Let me put aside my general complaints about the OSU-Wisconsin game. Wisconsin was seriously under-staffed against the Buckeyes, and evidently Terence Dials is allowed to hip-check on screens. (I know, I know. All Big Ten teams get home cookin'--part of why Bo Ryan's lost only one conference game at the Kohl.)
I'm an unabashed fan of the Badgers and generally have felt that Alando Tucker is among the elite players in the Big Televen. So far this season, however, I'm not sure that that is a supportable position. The OSU game on Wednesday is just the latest example of Tucker's inability to shoot well enough to be trusted with 15-20 shots per game.
Most of his shots come from the interior (and when they come from three, he's shooting just 28 percent). He draws a ton of fouls, but he's shooting only 47 percent from the line. He draws a lot of double or triple teams, but he rarely finds the open man (just 24 assists, fewer than any other Badger starter despite the double teams).
I love to see him work in the lane. There's no doubt his leadership is huge and he's made some memorable crunch time shots in his career. He's athletic, plays hard, and can be unstoppable. But against OSU he was clanking a lot of short range shots and missing front ends of one-and-ones down the stretch.
When your team loses two important players before the game, and then Butch tweaks his ankle, your top guy needs to step it up to win on the road. That's what elite players do and that's what Alando Tucker did not do.
I hope Tucker's shooting improves. But if it doesn't, the Badgers may have a tough time closing out close games with a hack-a-Tuck strategy coming into vogue.
Thanks for your effort. You're a daily read.
Brian H.
Tucker does indeed miss a ton of shots and I'll grant you that it's a little jarring to hear pundits blithely locking him in as first-team All-Big Ten with no mention at all of this fact.
But: for the sake of discussion let's imagine Tucker incurring the latest in a series of foot injuries and being sidelined for the rest of the year. Wisconsin without Tucker would, I think, plummet rapidly and dramatically. He's not playing as well as he can. And yet he may still be the best player on the team. ¶ 6:33 AM
Thursday, January 19, 2006
It took 55 minutes--but it's a W
Iowa beat Minnesota 76-72 in triple overtime in Iowa City last night. I joined this game with seven minutes left in regulation but the overall dynamic at work in Carver-Hawkeye quickly became clear, even for this latecomer. Here is a window onto the soul of this game: every time the Hawkeyes attempted a three or the Gophers attempted a free throw, I literally turned away from the screen in Edvard Munch-level horror. The shooting was that hideous. Iowa's 3FG pct. for the evening was 5.0. No, that's not a typo. They went 1-of-20. Meanwhile the Gophers were hitting just 13-of-24 free throws, which doesn't sound as bad but keep in mind about 10 of those makes happened before I tuned in. Minnesota went 1-of-5 from the line in OT.
The Hawkeyes finally secured a lead in the third OT with identical back-to-back plays set up for Adam Haluska. (A play usually designed for Greg Brunner. "When you play for 50 minutes, they've seen everything," Steve Alford explained afterward. "So we just inverted it and brought Adam to the post and had Bru be the screen.") Carver-Hawkeye was strangely quiet and on the second run-through set up for Haluska, watching from home, I could swear I heard someone--could it have been Alford?--yelling "Same play! Same play!" Seems like a bit of a tip for your opponent doesn't it? Anyway it worked. Haluska was fouled and sank both freebies. Iowa's lead reached five, which, in this game, was like 15. It was enough. (Box score.)
BONUS Erek Hansen note! Funny how you don't hear any more wondering aloud (say, like this) as to why Steve Alford gives so many minutes to Hansen, huh? True, the big guy is still a surprisingly unproductive rebounder for someone who looks like he can touch the rim flat-footed. So what? He virtually defines Iowa as a team. Take Hansen away and the tough Hawkeye D becomes much less aggressive, perimeter traps become much less forceful, passing lanes much less overplayed, etc. Not to mention he gets in the heads of every opposing offense and alters shots. Lastly, Hansen's offense has, at long last, improved. (After three years of articles about Hansen looking to improve his offense--he's improved his offense: he scored a career-high 20 points last night.) He's still not going to be confused for Marco Killingsworth, mind you, but last night I watched in wonderment as Hansen posted up strong, called for the ball (he really wanted it!), and took it strong to the tin. Essence of the Hawkeyes Erek Hansen, Wonk salutes you!
EXCLUSIVE idle speculation! Neither Minnesota nor Iowa gives a lot of minutes to their benches to start with and by the second OT, much less the third, both teams were visibly exhausted. Substitutions on the Gopher side in OT were minimal. (Mostly rotating Jonathan Williams and Spencer Tollackson, with a little Rico Tucker now and then.) And changes on the Iowa side in OT were, I believe, non-existent. Offhand I don't recall a single Hawkeye substitution after the 40th minute.
Why is that? By the second OT players could be seen walking up the floor. Sure, these are your best players. But when they can no longer even jog, you can't tell me this is your best team. I found myself musing as to the havoc, say, a fresh Jamal Abu-Shamala or Tony Freeman could have wreaked amidst these slow-footed zombies. Maybe sticking with your regulars is sound strategy. On the other hand, maybe it's simply another instance of unquestioned and ossified coaching error. Just posing the question.
Etc.
Sure, the game was 55 minutes long but still: 23 rebounds for Brunner is impressive. So, in the opposite direction, is fouling out in just 14 minutes, as J'son Stamper did. And, though he went just 1-of-8 on his threes, Jeff Horner notched the rare points-assists dub-dub with 10 and 10....In the span of just one (admittedly long) game, Minnesota's 3FG pct. defense in-conference went from a hideous 47.9 to a normal 35.3. In the span of that same game, Iowa's 3FG pct. in-conference went from a not very normal 33.9 to a hideous 26.3....For more, see the briskly efficient game recap at the Golden Gopher Hoops blog.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State beat Wisconsin 77-67 in Columbus last night. The tough FG defense that had propelled the Badgers' strong start in conference play vanished, as the Buckeyes notched a kinda gaudy 60.6 effective FG pct. ("We've just got to guard better," said Bo Ryan after the game.) And shooting was indeed the difference. (Wisconsin, as one would expect, controlled the boards (37.2 offensive rebound pct., 73.3 defensive) and neither team turned the ball over.) Many of OSU's shots came from in close (they attempted only 15 threes) and Terence Dials led the home team with 15 points. Kammron Taylor (15 FGAs) and Alando Tucker (22 FGAs) each scored 21 points for the Badgers. No, that big-eyed look Tucker had last night isn't an optical illusion caused by his protective mask. That's the look he gets when he's guarded by Matt Sylvester, as he was for a good stretch after J.J. Sullinger picked up his fourth foul. Tucker posted up repeatedly and schooled Sylvester as ESPN analyst Steve Lavin raved about Tucker's post offense. Sure, Tucker's good, I found myself thinking--but Sylvester's a big help....Brian Butch limped off the floor with what appeared to be a sprained ankle. He returned to the action but was notably hobbled. And the Badgers made the trip without Greg Stiemsma ("medical issues") and Marcus Landry ("academic issues"). As a result, UW freshman Joe Krabbenhoft played a season-high 31 minutes and recorded 13 boards. Good for Krabbenhoft but possibly bad for Wisconsin in the long run--at cbs.sportsline this morning, Gregg Doyel says the suddenly thinner Badger roster is severely limited by NCAA Title IX-based rules....For more, see the nifty game recap from the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Northwestern 68-51 last night in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines posted a surgical 72.8 effective FG pct.--that's Florida State-against-Purdue good, my friends. An apparently healthy Lester Abram, previously slowed by a bad toe and thus a conspicuous lacuna in Saturday's outing at Illinois, led the home team with 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Vedran Vukusic, on the other hand, had a miserable outing for the Wildcats: just 6-of-17 from the field. (Tommy Amaker gave credit to Chris Hunter for his D on Vukusic. Bill Carmody drew a different conclusion: "We've got to get Vedran some help.") NU recorded just six made field goals after halftime. (Ye gods.) Daniel Horton hobbled off the court with a twisted ankle midway through the second half and did not return. But after the game Horton told reporters he's fine and will be ready for the game at Minnesota Saturday. BONUS box score oddity! The Wolverines attempted one free throw. One? (Box score.)
Penn State beat Purdue 74-54 in State College last night. Geary Claxton led the Nittany Lions with a 20-10 dub-dub while teammate Jamelle Cornley continued to build a case for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, scoring 18 on just nine FGAs. Meanwhile the Boilers continued to struggle to hold on to the rock, coughing up 19 turnovers against PSU's 1-3-1 trap in a 65-possession game. Needlessly helpful scouting note for future Boiler opponents! "They played a strong 1-3-1 and we tend to turn the ball over against a 1-3-1," said Purdue freshman Marcus Green after the game. Sagacious Nittany Lion observer Jeff Rice says Penn State "looked very much at ease playing the defense-to-offense, up-tempo style Ed DeChellis has been working to build." (Box score.)
Group profile of the 2007 Michigan State recruiting class here: Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers.
Profile of 2007 Illinois recruit and Indianapolis high school baller Eric Gordon here....Is Dee Brown injured? Earnest speculation here....Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says he "can’t explain (nor can he, I’m sure) the dropoff in free throw shooting accuracy from James Augustine, who is now shooting 67 percent after hitting 75 percent last season and an excellent 84.7 percent in Big Ten play last year."...Profile of Wonk's fellow Springfieldian, Rich McBride, here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Hoosier fans want to see the numbers behind the W!
Wonk,
We all know you're an Illinois fan but how about a bit more analysis from the Hoosiers' side of last night's game to match the plethora of Illinois musings? A bit of analysis about IU's vastly improved rebounding and defense might have been nice. Some additional tempo-free stats as well.
One thing I've failed to see mentioned on any blog is that during the early Illini run, Killingsworth was suffering from back spasms, spending some time on the bench and generally being ineffective. His second half domination might have been for the entire game without said ailment.
Chris T.
Orange, Virginia
Indiana's defense was indeed vastly improved over what we saw in the Michigan State game. And as for the rebounding, I think I noted that it (and Illinois' abysmal free throw shooting) won the Hoosiers the game. So let's get to some numbers!
Let's start with another nugget gleaned from my 82 Games-style possession-charting....
Killingsworth on the floor:
58 offensive possessions--0.95 points per possession (PPP)
58 defensive possessions--0.76 opp. PPP
Killingsworth off the floor:
Nine offensive possessions--0.78 PPP
Eight defensive possessions--2.00 opp. PPP
Small sample size for "off the floor," sure, but Tuesday night, at least, Killingsworth would appear to have helped IU's D even more than he did its offense.
MORE Indiana numbers from Tuesday night!
PPP: 0.94
Effective FG pct.: 48.0
Oreb pct.: 34.4
Dreb pct.: 77.1
TO pct.: 25.7
MORE Illinois numbers from Tuesday night!
PPP: 0.91
Effective FG pct.: 45.6
Oreb pct.: 22.9
Dreb pct.: 65.6
TO pct.: 16.6
¶ 6:49 AM
Iowa beat Minnesota 76-72 in triple overtime in Iowa City last night. I joined this game with seven minutes left in regulation but the overall dynamic at work in Carver-Hawkeye quickly became clear, even for this latecomer. Here is a window onto the soul of this game: every time the Hawkeyes attempted a three or the Gophers attempted a free throw, I literally turned away from the screen in Edvard Munch-level horror. The shooting was that hideous. Iowa's 3FG pct. for the evening was 5.0. No, that's not a typo. They went 1-of-20. Meanwhile the Gophers were hitting just 13-of-24 free throws, which doesn't sound as bad but keep in mind about 10 of those makes happened before I tuned in. Minnesota went 1-of-5 from the line in OT.
The Hawkeyes finally secured a lead in the third OT with identical back-to-back plays set up for Adam Haluska. (A play usually designed for Greg Brunner. "When you play for 50 minutes, they've seen everything," Steve Alford explained afterward. "So we just inverted it and brought Adam to the post and had Bru be the screen.") Carver-Hawkeye was strangely quiet and on the second run-through set up for Haluska, watching from home, I could swear I heard someone--could it have been Alford?--yelling "Same play! Same play!" Seems like a bit of a tip for your opponent doesn't it? Anyway it worked. Haluska was fouled and sank both freebies. Iowa's lead reached five, which, in this game, was like 15. It was enough. (Box score.)
BONUS Erek Hansen note! Funny how you don't hear any more wondering aloud (say, like this) as to why Steve Alford gives so many minutes to Hansen, huh? True, the big guy is still a surprisingly unproductive rebounder for someone who looks like he can touch the rim flat-footed. So what? He virtually defines Iowa as a team. Take Hansen away and the tough Hawkeye D becomes much less aggressive, perimeter traps become much less forceful, passing lanes much less overplayed, etc. Not to mention he gets in the heads of every opposing offense and alters shots. Lastly, Hansen's offense has, at long last, improved. (After three years of articles about Hansen looking to improve his offense--he's improved his offense: he scored a career-high 20 points last night.) He's still not going to be confused for Marco Killingsworth, mind you, but last night I watched in wonderment as Hansen posted up strong, called for the ball (he really wanted it!), and took it strong to the tin. Essence of the Hawkeyes Erek Hansen, Wonk salutes you!
EXCLUSIVE idle speculation! Neither Minnesota nor Iowa gives a lot of minutes to their benches to start with and by the second OT, much less the third, both teams were visibly exhausted. Substitutions on the Gopher side in OT were minimal. (Mostly rotating Jonathan Williams and Spencer Tollackson, with a little Rico Tucker now and then.) And changes on the Iowa side in OT were, I believe, non-existent. Offhand I don't recall a single Hawkeye substitution after the 40th minute.
Why is that? By the second OT players could be seen walking up the floor. Sure, these are your best players. But when they can no longer even jog, you can't tell me this is your best team. I found myself musing as to the havoc, say, a fresh Jamal Abu-Shamala or Tony Freeman could have wreaked amidst these slow-footed zombies. Maybe sticking with your regulars is sound strategy. On the other hand, maybe it's simply another instance of unquestioned and ossified coaching error. Just posing the question.
Etc.
Sure, the game was 55 minutes long but still: 23 rebounds for Brunner is impressive. So, in the opposite direction, is fouling out in just 14 minutes, as J'son Stamper did. And, though he went just 1-of-8 on his threes, Jeff Horner notched the rare points-assists dub-dub with 10 and 10....In the span of just one (admittedly long) game, Minnesota's 3FG pct. defense in-conference went from a hideous 47.9 to a normal 35.3. In the span of that same game, Iowa's 3FG pct. in-conference went from a not very normal 33.9 to a hideous 26.3....For more, see the briskly efficient game recap at the Golden Gopher Hoops blog.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State beat Wisconsin 77-67 in Columbus last night. The tough FG defense that had propelled the Badgers' strong start in conference play vanished, as the Buckeyes notched a kinda gaudy 60.6 effective FG pct. ("We've just got to guard better," said Bo Ryan after the game.) And shooting was indeed the difference. (Wisconsin, as one would expect, controlled the boards (37.2 offensive rebound pct., 73.3 defensive) and neither team turned the ball over.) Many of OSU's shots came from in close (they attempted only 15 threes) and Terence Dials led the home team with 15 points. Kammron Taylor (15 FGAs) and Alando Tucker (22 FGAs) each scored 21 points for the Badgers. No, that big-eyed look Tucker had last night isn't an optical illusion caused by his protective mask. That's the look he gets when he's guarded by Matt Sylvester, as he was for a good stretch after J.J. Sullinger picked up his fourth foul. Tucker posted up repeatedly and schooled Sylvester as ESPN analyst Steve Lavin raved about Tucker's post offense. Sure, Tucker's good, I found myself thinking--but Sylvester's a big help....Brian Butch limped off the floor with what appeared to be a sprained ankle. He returned to the action but was notably hobbled. And the Badgers made the trip without Greg Stiemsma ("medical issues") and Marcus Landry ("academic issues"). As a result, UW freshman Joe Krabbenhoft played a season-high 31 minutes and recorded 13 boards. Good for Krabbenhoft but possibly bad for Wisconsin in the long run--at cbs.sportsline this morning, Gregg Doyel says the suddenly thinner Badger roster is severely limited by NCAA Title IX-based rules....For more, see the nifty game recap from the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Northwestern 68-51 last night in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines posted a surgical 72.8 effective FG pct.--that's Florida State-against-Purdue good, my friends. An apparently healthy Lester Abram, previously slowed by a bad toe and thus a conspicuous lacuna in Saturday's outing at Illinois, led the home team with 20 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Vedran Vukusic, on the other hand, had a miserable outing for the Wildcats: just 6-of-17 from the field. (Tommy Amaker gave credit to Chris Hunter for his D on Vukusic. Bill Carmody drew a different conclusion: "We've got to get Vedran some help.") NU recorded just six made field goals after halftime. (Ye gods.) Daniel Horton hobbled off the court with a twisted ankle midway through the second half and did not return. But after the game Horton told reporters he's fine and will be ready for the game at Minnesota Saturday. BONUS box score oddity! The Wolverines attempted one free throw. One? (Box score.)
Penn State beat Purdue 74-54 in State College last night. Geary Claxton led the Nittany Lions with a 20-10 dub-dub while teammate Jamelle Cornley continued to build a case for Big Ten Freshman of the Year, scoring 18 on just nine FGAs. Meanwhile the Boilers continued to struggle to hold on to the rock, coughing up 19 turnovers against PSU's 1-3-1 trap in a 65-possession game. Needlessly helpful scouting note for future Boiler opponents! "They played a strong 1-3-1 and we tend to turn the ball over against a 1-3-1," said Purdue freshman Marcus Green after the game. Sagacious Nittany Lion observer Jeff Rice says Penn State "looked very much at ease playing the defense-to-offense, up-tempo style Ed DeChellis has been working to build." (Box score.)
Group profile of the 2007 Michigan State recruiting class here: Kalin Lucas, Chris Allen, and Durrell Summers.
Profile of 2007 Illinois recruit and Indianapolis high school baller Eric Gordon here....Is Dee Brown injured? Earnest speculation here....Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says he "can’t explain (nor can he, I’m sure) the dropoff in free throw shooting accuracy from James Augustine, who is now shooting 67 percent after hitting 75 percent last season and an excellent 84.7 percent in Big Ten play last year."...Profile of Wonk's fellow Springfieldian, Rich McBride, here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Hoosier fans want to see the numbers behind the W!
Wonk,
We all know you're an Illinois fan but how about a bit more analysis from the Hoosiers' side of last night's game to match the plethora of Illinois musings? A bit of analysis about IU's vastly improved rebounding and defense might have been nice. Some additional tempo-free stats as well.
One thing I've failed to see mentioned on any blog is that during the early Illini run, Killingsworth was suffering from back spasms, spending some time on the bench and generally being ineffective. His second half domination might have been for the entire game without said ailment.
Chris T.
Orange, Virginia
Indiana's defense was indeed vastly improved over what we saw in the Michigan State game. And as for the rebounding, I think I noted that it (and Illinois' abysmal free throw shooting) won the Hoosiers the game. So let's get to some numbers!
Let's start with another nugget gleaned from my 82 Games-style possession-charting....
Killingsworth on the floor:
58 offensive possessions--0.95 points per possession (PPP)
58 defensive possessions--0.76 opp. PPP
Killingsworth off the floor:
Nine offensive possessions--0.78 PPP
Eight defensive possessions--2.00 opp. PPP
Small sample size for "off the floor," sure, but Tuesday night, at least, Killingsworth would appear to have helped IU's D even more than he did its offense.
MORE Indiana numbers from Tuesday night!
PPP: 0.94
Effective FG pct.: 48.0
Oreb pct.: 34.4
Dreb pct.: 77.1
TO pct.: 25.7
MORE Illinois numbers from Tuesday night!
PPP: 0.91
Effective FG pct.: 45.6
Oreb pct.: 22.9
Dreb pct.: 65.6
TO pct.: 16.6
¶ 6:49 AM
Wednesday, January 18, 2006
Hoosiers a legit Big Ten contender: they can win ugly
In beating Illinois 62-60 in Bloomington last night, Indiana rode a big second half from Marco Killingsworth (who notched a 23-12 dub-dub) and an overall heroic performance by Roderick Wilmont (17 points and nine boards in just 27 minutes). The game appeared to have been put away with a little more than eight minutes to go and IU leading 55-40. But the Illini made things interesting with a 14-1 run, before falling just short.
Rebounding and free throws made the difference for the home team. The Hoosiers' 77.1 defensive rebound pct. attests to the fact that Illinois was given very few second shots. And the Illini making just eight of 16 free throws in a two-point loss should give Bruce Weber all the ammo he needs to stress the importance of this season-long weakness to his team. (UPDATE! Weber agrees! "The free throws really cost us. That and the rebounds.")
These particular rosters pose mismatches at both ends of the floor. Bigs like James Augustine and Shaun Pruitt had to get out way above the three-point line and guard the likes of Wilmont (not very successfully) and Robert Vaden (successfully). Particularly notable in this vein was the spectacle of Ben Allen draining two threes in the first half. Like Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson guarding the Illini's Jack Ingram in Madison last year, Pruitt simply could not comprehend that this big man he was supposed to be checking was more of a threat outside than in. Six points quickly resulted from said incomprehension.
As for the Illini's three-point shooting, it was awful (2-of-14; Dee Brown is now 3-of-22 from the field and 2-of-16 on his threes in two Big Ten road games). But they missed a lot of twos, as well--20 in fact (23-of-43). Finishing around the basket was an issue. Still, Illinois recognized the mismatches they had going in their favor against an undersized opponent and fed their bigs, resulting in a notable 22 combined FGAs for Pruitt and Brian Randle. They responded with 17 and 15 points, respectively. Illini fans hope this heralds a new era of offensive production from non-Augustine and non-Brown types. (Box score.)
Just how important is Augustine?
Following the lead of the good people at 82 Games and canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska, I decided to chart the possessions in this game. Doing so lent a little support to a notion I already entertained: Illinois' fortunes rise and fall according to whether or not Augustine is on the floor. Specifically, the Illini D is a much different animal with Augustine than without him (or was last night):
Augustine on the floor:
54 offensive possessions--0.91 points per possession (PPP)
51 defensive possessions--0.88 opp. PPP
Augustine off the floor:
13 offensive possessions--0.85 PPP
15 defensive possessions--1.13 opp. PPP
With Augustine in the game, Illinois gave Indiana just 0.88 points per possession. With him on the bench the Hoosiers scored 1.13 PPP.
BONUS backfill on the double-or-no-double discussion on Killingsworth!
There was a surprise ambush double-team here and there, to be sure, but for the most part Illinois played Killingsworth straight up, as did Michigan State last week. In response, Killingsworth scored a lot of points (23) as he did against the Spartans (27). But the Hoosiers as a whole shot far less accurately than their norm: last night represented their worst shooting of the year (48.0 effective FG pct.). When Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber agree, the discussion in question may be drawing to a close. The book says: let the big dog eat as much as he can before he fatigues and give him his 25--but stay clamped on the three-point shooters.
Links
Indiana fans stormed the court after the game--and the Illini players were surprised. "They're a top-10 team winning at home," James Augustine commented afterward. "Our fans don't storm the court after every win." For his part, Weber drew a didactic lesson for his team: "By their reaction [IU fans storming the court], it means a lot to beat us. It means we're going to have to step it up another level."
Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says the Hoosiers are back, baybee! "After two lean years, it finally appears the IU program has turned a corner." After recording just one rebound against Michigan State, Marco Killingsworth was pleased with his 12-board effort: Coach has been pushing me and pushing me the last week trying to emphasize rebounding the basketball."
Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch hates to speak in terms of moral victories for a team that's lost four games in two years. But: "They're still 16-2, and are coming along now, with Augustine and Randle and the fight. And where on earth did Pruitt come from?" (Even die-hard Badger fan Chris West was impressed with Pruitt--it's a phenomeshaun!) Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper, conversely, sees the glass as half-empty: "The sad truth is that Illinois missed a great chance to make up ground in the Big Ten title hunt by losing a game they led 19-10, by again shooting free throws at an alarming rate (8 of 16) and by getting just 10 points and 3-of-16 shooting from its starting guards."
Brian Randle says his team's second-half comeback hints of good things to come: "It gives us incentive to push forward." Weber says his team needs to get it done outside (the Illinois) Assembly Hall: "We're going to have to find a way to win road games." Dee Brown says succinctly: "We’ve just got to rebound." Shaun Pruitt says the key to playing against Killingsworth is to attack: "He's a scorer, so he doesn't like to foul because he wants to stay in the game. So I just took it to him."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State plays Wisconsin tonight in Columbus (ESPN2, 8:30 ET). It's only January but let's be honest: Badger fans notwithstanding, the entire Big Ten will be rooting for the Buckeyes tonight. If the young Badgers can pull off the road win they will be surprisingly tough to catch in the Big Ten race. Not that winning at home will be easy for Thad Matta's team. Even if OSU's past performance had led us to believe they'll try to feed the post tonight (which it hasn't), Wisconsin in theory has the length and the fouls to defend and ultimately wear down Terence Dials. The Buckeyes better be hitting their shots. Links: Start with this briskly efficient game preview, courtesy of the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. As for MSM goodies: Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press throws some love the Badgers' way here. Salute to the Badger bench here. Player-by-player look at Brian Butch's teammates on the 2003 McDonald's All-American team here. Profile and notably large head shot of Badger freshman Mickey Perry here.
Iowa plays Minnesota in Iowa City tonight and the Hawks are saying all the right not-looking-past-them things: "They’re dangerous. They’re just a dangerous team,’’ says Jeff Horner. “They have so many athletes, and Grier is capable of going off for 30 points at any time." Gopher coach Dan Monson, conversely, isn't so certain Horner should be so worried: "We're a team right now searching to find our team." More from the coach: "Last year we won all those games because we knew no matter what, we were going to go down to the other end and get a stop. That might not be our identity this year, but what is our identity going to be?" Monson also says Iowa's D reminds him of last year's Gophers: "[Their] defense [is] a little bit like ours was last year in that they're a lot more aggressive on the ball, because they have Hansen underneath."...Excellent game preview here, from the good Grants at the Gopher Hoops blog. But wait! There's more! Spanking good game preview and dissection of the Gophers here, courtesy of canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska. (The indefatigable Ryan even gave an interview to the Golden Gopher Hoops blog--make haste!) Inevitable Gopher-based bad pun headline here.
Michigan plays Northwestern tonight in Ann Arbor and Tommy Amaker says his big men need to take better care of the ball: "With Courtney (Sims) leading our team in turnovers (41), that's not a great stat for our center. So, we need to eliminate our post players from turning the basketball over. That's hurting us." BONUS Michigan-Illinois backfill! See the discerning post-mortem chipped in by Joey at Schembechler Hall.
Penn State plays Purdue in State College tonight. The Boilers want to get the monkey off their back. What monkey, you ask? "As the Purdue basketball team prepares for tonight's Big Ten Conference game at Penn State, it is keenly aware of 23 months of failure away from Mackey Arena." Purdue's lost 16 straight outside West Lafayette. As for the Nittany Lions, Ed DeChellis says his team will be looking to play a complete game after a close loss at home to Iowa: "We let one slip away on Saturday, so this kind of puts added emphasis on this one."
Profile of Michigan State power forward and two-sport wonder Matt Trannon here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate
Wonk,
Illinois made a great comeback (or choke-job by IU...a number of bad shots and TOs). IU was lucky to hold on for the victory. (How did Augustine's shot not go down?) Great game to watch; a game IU had to have.
A few notes: Plaudits to Bruce Weber for two things. Illinois never gave up (a sign of a well-coached team) and came from 15 down to a last-second "shot." The Big Ten is going to have to deal with UI (and Mr. Weber) for a long time. Secondly, Weber trusted his seniors, namely Dee Brown to play with four fouls (and, to a lesser extent, Augustine). The Illini don't make their comeback without Dee on the floor. How IU wasn't able to take advantage of this foul trouble is beyond me. Brown couldn't hit the broad side of the barn--but managed 11 assists and five boards. Very impressive. Robert Vaden, on the other hand, seemed to get frustrated because he couldn't hit his shots either--and managed five TOs (with six boards and four assists--remember: just a sophomore).
Did somebody get the number of the truck that hit Mr. Frazier in the second half? And, yes, that was a legal screen.
One final note. Roderick Wilmont is my favorite player on the IU team. He likes coming off the bench, he plays hard all the time (maybe too hard defensively), actively goes after rebounds (nine tonight), and has limited his questionable shot selection. Plus he had the best play for the Hoosiers, blocking McBride's three and then hustling and beating UI down the court for the lay-up. This started IU's run early in the second half. No more Bracey-lite comments from me.
Thanks,
Nate D.
Indy
Comprehensively summed, Nate. Thanks! ¶ 6:42 AM
In beating Illinois 62-60 in Bloomington last night, Indiana rode a big second half from Marco Killingsworth (who notched a 23-12 dub-dub) and an overall heroic performance by Roderick Wilmont (17 points and nine boards in just 27 minutes). The game appeared to have been put away with a little more than eight minutes to go and IU leading 55-40. But the Illini made things interesting with a 14-1 run, before falling just short.
Rebounding and free throws made the difference for the home team. The Hoosiers' 77.1 defensive rebound pct. attests to the fact that Illinois was given very few second shots. And the Illini making just eight of 16 free throws in a two-point loss should give Bruce Weber all the ammo he needs to stress the importance of this season-long weakness to his team. (UPDATE! Weber agrees! "The free throws really cost us. That and the rebounds.")
These particular rosters pose mismatches at both ends of the floor. Bigs like James Augustine and Shaun Pruitt had to get out way above the three-point line and guard the likes of Wilmont (not very successfully) and Robert Vaden (successfully). Particularly notable in this vein was the spectacle of Ben Allen draining two threes in the first half. Like Wisconsin's Mike Wilkinson guarding the Illini's Jack Ingram in Madison last year, Pruitt simply could not comprehend that this big man he was supposed to be checking was more of a threat outside than in. Six points quickly resulted from said incomprehension.
As for the Illini's three-point shooting, it was awful (2-of-14; Dee Brown is now 3-of-22 from the field and 2-of-16 on his threes in two Big Ten road games). But they missed a lot of twos, as well--20 in fact (23-of-43). Finishing around the basket was an issue. Still, Illinois recognized the mismatches they had going in their favor against an undersized opponent and fed their bigs, resulting in a notable 22 combined FGAs for Pruitt and Brian Randle. They responded with 17 and 15 points, respectively. Illini fans hope this heralds a new era of offensive production from non-Augustine and non-Brown types. (Box score.)
Just how important is Augustine?
Following the lead of the good people at 82 Games and canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska, I decided to chart the possessions in this game. Doing so lent a little support to a notion I already entertained: Illinois' fortunes rise and fall according to whether or not Augustine is on the floor. Specifically, the Illini D is a much different animal with Augustine than without him (or was last night):
Augustine on the floor:
54 offensive possessions--0.91 points per possession (PPP)
51 defensive possessions--0.88 opp. PPP
Augustine off the floor:
13 offensive possessions--0.85 PPP
15 defensive possessions--1.13 opp. PPP
With Augustine in the game, Illinois gave Indiana just 0.88 points per possession. With him on the bench the Hoosiers scored 1.13 PPP.
BONUS backfill on the double-or-no-double discussion on Killingsworth!
There was a surprise ambush double-team here and there, to be sure, but for the most part Illinois played Killingsworth straight up, as did Michigan State last week. In response, Killingsworth scored a lot of points (23) as he did against the Spartans (27). But the Hoosiers as a whole shot far less accurately than their norm: last night represented their worst shooting of the year (48.0 effective FG pct.). When Tom Izzo and Bruce Weber agree, the discussion in question may be drawing to a close. The book says: let the big dog eat as much as he can before he fatigues and give him his 25--but stay clamped on the three-point shooters.
Links
Indiana fans stormed the court after the game--and the Illini players were surprised. "They're a top-10 team winning at home," James Augustine commented afterward. "Our fans don't storm the court after every win." For his part, Weber drew a didactic lesson for his team: "By their reaction [IU fans storming the court], it means a lot to beat us. It means we're going to have to step it up another level."
Indianapolis Star columnist Bob Kravitz says the Hoosiers are back, baybee! "After two lean years, it finally appears the IU program has turned a corner." After recording just one rebound against Michigan State, Marco Killingsworth was pleased with his 12-board effort: Coach has been pushing me and pushing me the last week trying to emphasize rebounding the basketball."
Chicago Sun-Times columnist Greg Couch hates to speak in terms of moral victories for a team that's lost four games in two years. But: "They're still 16-2, and are coming along now, with Augustine and Randle and the fight. And where on earth did Pruitt come from?" (Even die-hard Badger fan Chris West was impressed with Pruitt--it's a phenomeshaun!) Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper, conversely, sees the glass as half-empty: "The sad truth is that Illinois missed a great chance to make up ground in the Big Ten title hunt by losing a game they led 19-10, by again shooting free throws at an alarming rate (8 of 16) and by getting just 10 points and 3-of-16 shooting from its starting guards."
Brian Randle says his team's second-half comeback hints of good things to come: "It gives us incentive to push forward." Weber says his team needs to get it done outside (the Illinois) Assembly Hall: "We're going to have to find a way to win road games." Dee Brown says succinctly: "We’ve just got to rebound." Shaun Pruitt says the key to playing against Killingsworth is to attack: "He's a scorer, so he doesn't like to foul because he wants to stay in the game. So I just took it to him."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State plays Wisconsin tonight in Columbus (ESPN2, 8:30 ET). It's only January but let's be honest: Badger fans notwithstanding, the entire Big Ten will be rooting for the Buckeyes tonight. If the young Badgers can pull off the road win they will be surprisingly tough to catch in the Big Ten race. Not that winning at home will be easy for Thad Matta's team. Even if OSU's past performance had led us to believe they'll try to feed the post tonight (which it hasn't), Wisconsin in theory has the length and the fouls to defend and ultimately wear down Terence Dials. The Buckeyes better be hitting their shots. Links: Start with this briskly efficient game preview, courtesy of the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. As for MSM goodies: Mark Snyder of the Detroit Free Press throws some love the Badgers' way here. Salute to the Badger bench here. Player-by-player look at Brian Butch's teammates on the 2003 McDonald's All-American team here. Profile and notably large head shot of Badger freshman Mickey Perry here.
Iowa plays Minnesota in Iowa City tonight and the Hawks are saying all the right not-looking-past-them things: "They’re dangerous. They’re just a dangerous team,’’ says Jeff Horner. “They have so many athletes, and Grier is capable of going off for 30 points at any time." Gopher coach Dan Monson, conversely, isn't so certain Horner should be so worried: "We're a team right now searching to find our team." More from the coach: "Last year we won all those games because we knew no matter what, we were going to go down to the other end and get a stop. That might not be our identity this year, but what is our identity going to be?" Monson also says Iowa's D reminds him of last year's Gophers: "[Their] defense [is] a little bit like ours was last year in that they're a lot more aggressive on the ball, because they have Hansen underneath."...Excellent game preview here, from the good Grants at the Gopher Hoops blog. But wait! There's more! Spanking good game preview and dissection of the Gophers here, courtesy of canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska. (The indefatigable Ryan even gave an interview to the Golden Gopher Hoops blog--make haste!) Inevitable Gopher-based bad pun headline here.
Michigan plays Northwestern tonight in Ann Arbor and Tommy Amaker says his big men need to take better care of the ball: "With Courtney (Sims) leading our team in turnovers (41), that's not a great stat for our center. So, we need to eliminate our post players from turning the basketball over. That's hurting us." BONUS Michigan-Illinois backfill! See the discerning post-mortem chipped in by Joey at Schembechler Hall.
Penn State plays Purdue in State College tonight. The Boilers want to get the monkey off their back. What monkey, you ask? "As the Purdue basketball team prepares for tonight's Big Ten Conference game at Penn State, it is keenly aware of 23 months of failure away from Mackey Arena." Purdue's lost 16 straight outside West Lafayette. As for the Nittany Lions, Ed DeChellis says his team will be looking to play a complete game after a close loss at home to Iowa: "We let one slip away on Saturday, so this kind of puts added emphasis on this one."
Profile of Michigan State power forward and two-sport wonder Matt Trannon here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate
Wonk,
Illinois made a great comeback (or choke-job by IU...a number of bad shots and TOs). IU was lucky to hold on for the victory. (How did Augustine's shot not go down?) Great game to watch; a game IU had to have.
A few notes: Plaudits to Bruce Weber for two things. Illinois never gave up (a sign of a well-coached team) and came from 15 down to a last-second "shot." The Big Ten is going to have to deal with UI (and Mr. Weber) for a long time. Secondly, Weber trusted his seniors, namely Dee Brown to play with four fouls (and, to a lesser extent, Augustine). The Illini don't make their comeback without Dee on the floor. How IU wasn't able to take advantage of this foul trouble is beyond me. Brown couldn't hit the broad side of the barn--but managed 11 assists and five boards. Very impressive. Robert Vaden, on the other hand, seemed to get frustrated because he couldn't hit his shots either--and managed five TOs (with six boards and four assists--remember: just a sophomore).
Did somebody get the number of the truck that hit Mr. Frazier in the second half? And, yes, that was a legal screen.
One final note. Roderick Wilmont is my favorite player on the IU team. He likes coming off the bench, he plays hard all the time (maybe too hard defensively), actively goes after rebounds (nine tonight), and has limited his questionable shot selection. Plus he had the best play for the Hoosiers, blocking McBride's three and then hustling and beating UI down the court for the lay-up. This started IU's run early in the second half. No more Bracey-lite comments from me.
Thanks,
Nate D.
Indy
Comprehensively summed, Nate. Thanks! ¶ 6:42 AM
Tuesday, January 17, 2006
Chicken salad on rye, untoasted, and a cup of tea
How best to sum up the five games played since this blog's last post? Perhaps George Costanza, after changing his life completely by ordering the items in today's headline, put it best: "Up was down, black was white, good was bad, day was night."
Iowa tops Penn State--Illinois fans want Illini offense to play more like PSU's
The hoops weekend started with Iowa tipping it off at Penn State at 11am Saturday morning, Wonk Standard Time (WST). Now, while I am indeed nominally a Big Ten "wonk," I do indeed "have a life," meaning I don't necessarily set aside time to watch an Iowa-Penn State game--not live, anyway. So as I went about my busy Saturday activities I mused to myself as to the likely final score of this contest between the Big Ten's best defense and the league's seventh-best offense: Hawkeyes win by, say 62-41? Maybe even 55-38?....
Returning to Wonk World HQ around mid-afternoon, I promptly hopped online and pulled up the final score: Iowa 80, Penn State 76. What the? How is this--either half of this--possible? First, the Hawkeyes' 80 points were helped along by 11 threes: a not very good outside shooting team (31.9 3FG pct. on the year) did OK for a day (39.3). And, second, the Nittany Lions stayed in a relatively fast game (73 possessions) by holding on to the ball: with only nine turnovers, PSU posted a gaudy 12.3 TO pct.
The details are here, courtesy of canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska: "the Hawkeyes definitely lacked that 'this is the most crucial possession of the game' intensity that they showed all game against Illinois." (Based on his possession-by-possession tracking of Iowa during the Big Ten season, Ryan also wonders aloud if perhaps Mike Henderson's reputation as a defensive stopper is somewhat overblown.) There's analysis; and then there's Ryanalysis--make haste! (Box score.)
Brief interlude of normalcy....
Next up Saturday afternoon: Wisconsin beat Northwestern 68-52 in Madison. O, the joy of the familiar....Proficient FG defense from the Badgers (43.1 effective field goal pct. for the opponent). Anemic offensive rebounding from the Wildcats (22.9 oreb pct.). And a plethora of points (20) and attempts (15) from Alando Tucker. Peace is wonderful. (Box score.)
Back to our regularly scheduled anarchy
With Michigan coming to Champaign to take on Illinois, this Illini fan fully expected a slow ugly game. That's what we saw last year from these two teams and this year's Wolverines, even in their healthy state, have likewise shown a surprising willingness to go slow. And as for the Illini, their offense virtually personified the terms "slow" and "ugly" when last we saw them in action in Iowa City.
Let it be noted, however, that prior to Saturday the men in orange did have a sweet little streak going on D: no opponent this season had cracked the point-per-possession barrier against Bruce Weber's team. North Carolina (0.96) and Xavier (0.98) had come close, granted, but no team had been able to clear that 1.00 hurdle.
That is, no team until Michigan, who not only cleared said hurdle but did so with room to spare. Illinois won the game 79-74 but it was far and away their worst defensive effort of the season, giving the Wolverines 1.11 points per possession. I've been frankly too mortified to sit down with the recording of this game but doing so would doubtless uncover a PPP north of 1.30 for Michigan in their 46-point second half.
Only some sudden offensive production from Dee Brown and James Augustine saved the day for the home team. Brown hit 5-of-10 threes and 9-of-10 free throws for 26 points. The box score says the foul-blighted Augustine played 33 minutes (and posted 23 points and nine boards) but watching this game in real time this fretful Illinois fan could've sworn it was more like 23 minutes: when the big guy was on the bench the Illini suffered. (Box score.)
BONUS coverage-of-the-coverage note! Stu Durando of the St. Louis Post Dispatch is, to my knowledge, the only scribe whose game recap recognized and rightly highlighted the Illini's man-bites-dog struggles on D against the Wolverines. Perspicacious press pundit Stu Durando, Wonk salutes you!
EXCLUSIVE idle speculation! Does this undeniably impressive road performance herald the long-awaited "return" of Michigan?
No.
Don't get me wrong: the Wolverines could indeed surprise this year. But they've played Illinois tough before (see last year) only to revert to form: inconsistency, playing down to the opponent, turnovers, and what can only be called a pervasive and recurring Courtney Sims-style lethargy. The test for Michigan, as for any team, is this: they will have arrived when we know in advance how they expect to win. Look at Wisconsin. We say things like: "Wisconsin, as expected, played tough D and took care of the ball." The Wolverines will be "back" when we can finish this sentence in a non-pejorative fashion: "Michigan, as expected, (blank)."
(I would also be more confident in Michigan's ability to repeat this performance if Lester Abram had been more involved than he was (scoring just five points in 22 minutes). Canonical blogger Brian at mgoblog wants to know: "Donde esta Lester Abram?" Buena pregunta, amigo.)
Matt Painter says: turnovers, schmurnovers--get the W
On to West Lafayette, where Purdue is hosting Minnesota and where we know we're going to see a ton of Boiler turnovers, right? After all, the Gophers lead the Big Ten in forcing turnovers--and Purdue leads the league in committing them. 'Nuff said, right?
Wrong! Final score: Purdue 72, Minnesota 55. The Boilers did indeed cough up the ball 17 times in a 67-possession game. Didn't matter one whit, however, because they were simultaneously enjoying their best night of shooting since November. And that is precisely the challenge for Dan Monson. Minnesota's defense, which last year was one of the finest in the nation, is only fair to middling this year--and if not for the turnovers they force opponents into donating, the Gopher D would be downright awful. Minnesota opponents are shooting 40.4 percent on their threes this year. Worse, in three Big Ten games, the Gophers have allowed their opponents to hit 47.9 percent from outside the arc. (Ye gods.) (Box score.)
Still, the strangest game was yet to come....
Where are all the points?
Michigan State beat Ohio State 62-59 in double overtime in Columbus Sunday. This was an odd game. It should have been an offensive explosion on both sides--or at least that's what I anticipated. State's struggles on D have been well documented and, as for the Buckeyes, your intrepid blogger was frankly skeptical as to their ability to play interior D against an opponent like the Spartans.
Instead, it was a defensive struggle throughout. To take one fairly random example: for long stretches in the second half there were no stoppages of play--no fouls, no passes going out of bounds. As a result, both teams looked gassed and were very static in their halfcourt sets--like a couple of NBA teams in April. During this time State went almost ten minutes without scoring a point. And won. The Spartans held the home team to just 0.81 points per possession, as OSU (37.9 effective FG pct.) couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat. (The very sound of the ball hitting the rim in Value City Arena became a recurring auditory motif.)
This game's already been very well dissected by the blogosphere (see: Enlightened Spartan, Around the Oval, Buckeye Commentary, and Buckeye Sports Blitz). Given that I'm arriving late to this particular discursive gig, then, allow me to restrict myself to a few random quips:
--Terence Dials was visible in his displeasure at not getting the ball. Too moodily visible, in fact. For all the game analysts who want the big man on a given team to "demand the ball," here's your wish. But can you go too far the other way?
--Value City Arena was actually loud.
--Jamar Butler is woefully underrated.
(Box score.)
File this under "Ye gods"....
At halftime of the MSU-OSU broadcast, with the Spartans leading the Buckeyes 29-25, the following exchange took place in the studio between Greg Gumbel and Seth Davis....
GREG GUMBEL: Seth, what do we make of this game?
SETH DAVIS: Well, Michigan State's doing a terrific job on Ohio State's three-point shooters. But the Spartans have only four points off turnovers. They really depend on that, Greg, to generate their points.
This is beyond wrong. This is "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job"-level wrong. State ranks dead last in the Big Ten in the frequency with which their opponents commit turnovers. And yet the Spartans also have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten, not to mention the country. Last year? Same thing: great offense, very few opponent TOs. In short, Michigan State has proven beyond question they do not need turnovers from their opponents in order to generate points.
Bold epistemological innovator Seth Davis, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated. Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy. BONUS look-ahead! Next week we here at Wonk World HQ will make the jump to in-conference team stats. Mmmm, in-conference: tempo-free numbers compiled against very similar opponents. (In the admirably symmetrical Pac 10, where every team plays every other team home and away, these would be well nigh the Archimedean ideal. Go to it, yet-to-emerge Pac 10 Wonk!)
Hoosiers, Illini, and double-teams
Indiana plays Illinois tonight in Bloomington (ESPN, 7 ET) and the question of the day is: will the Illini double-team Marco Killingsworth? Most teams have indeed done so, while Duke, famously, did not. Killingsworth scored 34 that night--but might the Blue Devils have made the correct call, after all? Despite his gaudy effective FG pct. (63.6), Killingsworth ranks dead last in the Big Ten in taking care of the ball, a habit that makes him notably less effective as an offensive weapon than Marshall Strickland and Robert Vaden. So why double a team's third option on offense?
True, this may be a blinding flash of the tautological: Killingsworth's turnovers doubtless come in large part from being the target of so many double-teams. Yet even against Duke's single-man coverage, Killingsworth coughed it up seven times. Moreover, the Hoosier big man has demonstrated that he's a proficient passer, adept at responding to the double-team by finding the open man wherever he may be on the arc. What do you do? It's a good question and I'll be interested to see Bruce Weber's answer.
For now the coach says he could go either way: "A key to any defense is disrupting the rhythm of the offense. We'd like to post trap (double-team Killingsworth when he catches the ball) but they make it difficult on you. Michigan State played them one-on-one and made sure they limited everybody else. That's a possibility." (For his part, Tom Izzo thinks he made the right call on how to guard the Hoosiers: "When you have four three-point shooters that are shooting 50 percent or better, it's hard to double down.")
Mike Davis says tonight's game is big--but not that big: "It's just the fourth game of the season. It's not a life or death game."...Lewis Monroe's status for tonight's game is in doubt. (Davis estimates a 60 percent chance of Monroe playing.) He underwent hemorrhoid surgery on January 9....Davis says he senses "just a little disappointment from our guys" in the wake of losing D.J. White, possibly for the season, due to an injured foot. Not that Davis doesn't share that disappointment: "We lost a lottery pick."...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper frets about who's going to guard whom here.
In today's less Hoosier vs. Illini venues....
Wisconsin redshirt freshman DeAaron Williams left the team a few weeks ago. So where is he now? Back home in Peoria.
It's official: Matt Trannon is (duh) the starter at the 4 for Michigan State.
Michigan big man Courtney Sims says the Wolverines need to play with a sense of urgency: "We've had two opportunities that we should have won on the road. We were close but we lost."
Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska gets an early jump on the Big Ten Freshman of the Year balloting and reviews the field here. His choice so far? Jamelle Cornley of Penn State.
Analysis of Purdue's putatively robust rebounding here. How robust is it, really, you ask? The numbers used in this particular article are rebounding margin and opponent rebounds per game. The first is inflated by Purdue's fast pace. The second is deflated by the fact that the Boilers' opponents are allowed to shoot so well. (The Boilers are third in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding and ninth in defensive rebounding.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Badger fever--catch it!
Hey, Wonk,
Great blog. I actually found it off of the UW Badgers blog.
I just want to say that while the Badgers have a favorable schedule but will probably falter at some point on the road, they are the team to beat. If not this year, look out next year! I'm a Badger fan through and through but I'm a UW-Platteville alum and have seen Bo work his magic before. You just wait; he doesn't even have this team (or any of the last four) up to his caliber yet!
This team has more athletic ability on the bench then some teams have in their starting lineup. And the twin towers (or, as the ESPN guys say, the polar bears) form one of the most intimidating forces in the Big Ten paint. Doe will start hitting his free throws and Bo will get these guys up to win another couple big road games. And then it is right to the Final Four! Even Dukie V. is giving the Badgers some love!
Bo's one of the best coaches there is and this year he has the talent. It may be young but he's a great teacher. I should know. I had him in P-ville.
Go Badgers!
Heather A.
Madison
Euphoria duly recorded, Heather. Thanks! ¶ 6:05 AM
How best to sum up the five games played since this blog's last post? Perhaps George Costanza, after changing his life completely by ordering the items in today's headline, put it best: "Up was down, black was white, good was bad, day was night."
Iowa tops Penn State--Illinois fans want Illini offense to play more like PSU's
The hoops weekend started with Iowa tipping it off at Penn State at 11am Saturday morning, Wonk Standard Time (WST). Now, while I am indeed nominally a Big Ten "wonk," I do indeed "have a life," meaning I don't necessarily set aside time to watch an Iowa-Penn State game--not live, anyway. So as I went about my busy Saturday activities I mused to myself as to the likely final score of this contest between the Big Ten's best defense and the league's seventh-best offense: Hawkeyes win by, say 62-41? Maybe even 55-38?....
Returning to Wonk World HQ around mid-afternoon, I promptly hopped online and pulled up the final score: Iowa 80, Penn State 76. What the? How is this--either half of this--possible? First, the Hawkeyes' 80 points were helped along by 11 threes: a not very good outside shooting team (31.9 3FG pct. on the year) did OK for a day (39.3). And, second, the Nittany Lions stayed in a relatively fast game (73 possessions) by holding on to the ball: with only nine turnovers, PSU posted a gaudy 12.3 TO pct.
The details are here, courtesy of canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska: "the Hawkeyes definitely lacked that 'this is the most crucial possession of the game' intensity that they showed all game against Illinois." (Based on his possession-by-possession tracking of Iowa during the Big Ten season, Ryan also wonders aloud if perhaps Mike Henderson's reputation as a defensive stopper is somewhat overblown.) There's analysis; and then there's Ryanalysis--make haste! (Box score.)
Brief interlude of normalcy....
Next up Saturday afternoon: Wisconsin beat Northwestern 68-52 in Madison. O, the joy of the familiar....Proficient FG defense from the Badgers (43.1 effective field goal pct. for the opponent). Anemic offensive rebounding from the Wildcats (22.9 oreb pct.). And a plethora of points (20) and attempts (15) from Alando Tucker. Peace is wonderful. (Box score.)
Back to our regularly scheduled anarchy
With Michigan coming to Champaign to take on Illinois, this Illini fan fully expected a slow ugly game. That's what we saw last year from these two teams and this year's Wolverines, even in their healthy state, have likewise shown a surprising willingness to go slow. And as for the Illini, their offense virtually personified the terms "slow" and "ugly" when last we saw them in action in Iowa City.
Let it be noted, however, that prior to Saturday the men in orange did have a sweet little streak going on D: no opponent this season had cracked the point-per-possession barrier against Bruce Weber's team. North Carolina (0.96) and Xavier (0.98) had come close, granted, but no team had been able to clear that 1.00 hurdle.
That is, no team until Michigan, who not only cleared said hurdle but did so with room to spare. Illinois won the game 79-74 but it was far and away their worst defensive effort of the season, giving the Wolverines 1.11 points per possession. I've been frankly too mortified to sit down with the recording of this game but doing so would doubtless uncover a PPP north of 1.30 for Michigan in their 46-point second half.
Only some sudden offensive production from Dee Brown and James Augustine saved the day for the home team. Brown hit 5-of-10 threes and 9-of-10 free throws for 26 points. The box score says the foul-blighted Augustine played 33 minutes (and posted 23 points and nine boards) but watching this game in real time this fretful Illinois fan could've sworn it was more like 23 minutes: when the big guy was on the bench the Illini suffered. (Box score.)
BONUS coverage-of-the-coverage note! Stu Durando of the St. Louis Post Dispatch is, to my knowledge, the only scribe whose game recap recognized and rightly highlighted the Illini's man-bites-dog struggles on D against the Wolverines. Perspicacious press pundit Stu Durando, Wonk salutes you!
EXCLUSIVE idle speculation! Does this undeniably impressive road performance herald the long-awaited "return" of Michigan?
No.
Don't get me wrong: the Wolverines could indeed surprise this year. But they've played Illinois tough before (see last year) only to revert to form: inconsistency, playing down to the opponent, turnovers, and what can only be called a pervasive and recurring Courtney Sims-style lethargy. The test for Michigan, as for any team, is this: they will have arrived when we know in advance how they expect to win. Look at Wisconsin. We say things like: "Wisconsin, as expected, played tough D and took care of the ball." The Wolverines will be "back" when we can finish this sentence in a non-pejorative fashion: "Michigan, as expected, (blank)."
(I would also be more confident in Michigan's ability to repeat this performance if Lester Abram had been more involved than he was (scoring just five points in 22 minutes). Canonical blogger Brian at mgoblog wants to know: "Donde esta Lester Abram?" Buena pregunta, amigo.)
Matt Painter says: turnovers, schmurnovers--get the W
On to West Lafayette, where Purdue is hosting Minnesota and where we know we're going to see a ton of Boiler turnovers, right? After all, the Gophers lead the Big Ten in forcing turnovers--and Purdue leads the league in committing them. 'Nuff said, right?
Wrong! Final score: Purdue 72, Minnesota 55. The Boilers did indeed cough up the ball 17 times in a 67-possession game. Didn't matter one whit, however, because they were simultaneously enjoying their best night of shooting since November. And that is precisely the challenge for Dan Monson. Minnesota's defense, which last year was one of the finest in the nation, is only fair to middling this year--and if not for the turnovers they force opponents into donating, the Gopher D would be downright awful. Minnesota opponents are shooting 40.4 percent on their threes this year. Worse, in three Big Ten games, the Gophers have allowed their opponents to hit 47.9 percent from outside the arc. (Ye gods.) (Box score.)
Still, the strangest game was yet to come....
Where are all the points?
Michigan State beat Ohio State 62-59 in double overtime in Columbus Sunday. This was an odd game. It should have been an offensive explosion on both sides--or at least that's what I anticipated. State's struggles on D have been well documented and, as for the Buckeyes, your intrepid blogger was frankly skeptical as to their ability to play interior D against an opponent like the Spartans.
Instead, it was a defensive struggle throughout. To take one fairly random example: for long stretches in the second half there were no stoppages of play--no fouls, no passes going out of bounds. As a result, both teams looked gassed and were very static in their halfcourt sets--like a couple of NBA teams in April. During this time State went almost ten minutes without scoring a point. And won. The Spartans held the home team to just 0.81 points per possession, as OSU (37.9 effective FG pct.) couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat. (The very sound of the ball hitting the rim in Value City Arena became a recurring auditory motif.)
This game's already been very well dissected by the blogosphere (see: Enlightened Spartan, Around the Oval, Buckeye Commentary, and Buckeye Sports Blitz). Given that I'm arriving late to this particular discursive gig, then, allow me to restrict myself to a few random quips:
--Terence Dials was visible in his displeasure at not getting the ball. Too moodily visible, in fact. For all the game analysts who want the big man on a given team to "demand the ball," here's your wish. But can you go too far the other way?
--Value City Arena was actually loud.
--Jamar Butler is woefully underrated.
(Box score.)
File this under "Ye gods"....
At halftime of the MSU-OSU broadcast, with the Spartans leading the Buckeyes 29-25, the following exchange took place in the studio between Greg Gumbel and Seth Davis....
GREG GUMBEL: Seth, what do we make of this game?
SETH DAVIS: Well, Michigan State's doing a terrific job on Ohio State's three-point shooters. But the Spartans have only four points off turnovers. They really depend on that, Greg, to generate their points.
This is beyond wrong. This is "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job"-level wrong. State ranks dead last in the Big Ten in the frequency with which their opponents commit turnovers. And yet the Spartans also have one of the best offenses in the Big Ten, not to mention the country. Last year? Same thing: great offense, very few opponent TOs. In short, Michigan State has proven beyond question they do not need turnovers from their opponents in order to generate points.
Bold epistemological innovator Seth Davis, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated. Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy. BONUS look-ahead! Next week we here at Wonk World HQ will make the jump to in-conference team stats. Mmmm, in-conference: tempo-free numbers compiled against very similar opponents. (In the admirably symmetrical Pac 10, where every team plays every other team home and away, these would be well nigh the Archimedean ideal. Go to it, yet-to-emerge Pac 10 Wonk!)
Hoosiers, Illini, and double-teams
Indiana plays Illinois tonight in Bloomington (ESPN, 7 ET) and the question of the day is: will the Illini double-team Marco Killingsworth? Most teams have indeed done so, while Duke, famously, did not. Killingsworth scored 34 that night--but might the Blue Devils have made the correct call, after all? Despite his gaudy effective FG pct. (63.6), Killingsworth ranks dead last in the Big Ten in taking care of the ball, a habit that makes him notably less effective as an offensive weapon than Marshall Strickland and Robert Vaden. So why double a team's third option on offense?
True, this may be a blinding flash of the tautological: Killingsworth's turnovers doubtless come in large part from being the target of so many double-teams. Yet even against Duke's single-man coverage, Killingsworth coughed it up seven times. Moreover, the Hoosier big man has demonstrated that he's a proficient passer, adept at responding to the double-team by finding the open man wherever he may be on the arc. What do you do? It's a good question and I'll be interested to see Bruce Weber's answer.
For now the coach says he could go either way: "A key to any defense is disrupting the rhythm of the offense. We'd like to post trap (double-team Killingsworth when he catches the ball) but they make it difficult on you. Michigan State played them one-on-one and made sure they limited everybody else. That's a possibility." (For his part, Tom Izzo thinks he made the right call on how to guard the Hoosiers: "When you have four three-point shooters that are shooting 50 percent or better, it's hard to double down.")
Mike Davis says tonight's game is big--but not that big: "It's just the fourth game of the season. It's not a life or death game."...Lewis Monroe's status for tonight's game is in doubt. (Davis estimates a 60 percent chance of Monroe playing.) He underwent hemorrhoid surgery on January 9....Davis says he senses "just a little disappointment from our guys" in the wake of losing D.J. White, possibly for the season, due to an injured foot. Not that Davis doesn't share that disappointment: "We lost a lottery pick."...Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper frets about who's going to guard whom here.
In today's less Hoosier vs. Illini venues....
Wisconsin redshirt freshman DeAaron Williams left the team a few weeks ago. So where is he now? Back home in Peoria.
It's official: Matt Trannon is (duh) the starter at the 4 for Michigan State.
Michigan big man Courtney Sims says the Wolverines need to play with a sense of urgency: "We've had two opportunities that we should have won on the road. We were close but we lost."
Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska gets an early jump on the Big Ten Freshman of the Year balloting and reviews the field here. His choice so far? Jamelle Cornley of Penn State.
Analysis of Purdue's putatively robust rebounding here. How robust is it, really, you ask? The numbers used in this particular article are rebounding margin and opponent rebounds per game. The first is inflated by Purdue's fast pace. The second is deflated by the fact that the Boilers' opponents are allowed to shoot so well. (The Boilers are third in the Big Ten in offensive rebounding and ninth in defensive rebounding.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Badger fever--catch it!
Hey, Wonk,
Great blog. I actually found it off of the UW Badgers blog.
I just want to say that while the Badgers have a favorable schedule but will probably falter at some point on the road, they are the team to beat. If not this year, look out next year! I'm a Badger fan through and through but I'm a UW-Platteville alum and have seen Bo work his magic before. You just wait; he doesn't even have this team (or any of the last four) up to his caliber yet!
This team has more athletic ability on the bench then some teams have in their starting lineup. And the twin towers (or, as the ESPN guys say, the polar bears) form one of the most intimidating forces in the Big Ten paint. Doe will start hitting his free throws and Bo will get these guys up to win another couple big road games. And then it is right to the Final Four! Even Dukie V. is giving the Badgers some love!
Bo's one of the best coaches there is and this year he has the talent. It may be young but he's a great teacher. I should know. I had him in P-ville.
Go Badgers!
Heather A.
Madison
Euphoria duly recorded, Heather. Thanks! ¶ 6:05 AM
Offensive efficiency: points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
All games, thru January 16
1. Ohio State (1.15)
2. Indiana (1.14)
3. Michigan State (1.12)
4. Illinois (1.11)
5. Michigan (1.10)
6. Wisconsin (1.10)
7. Penn State (1.07)
8. Northwestern (1.00)
9. Minnesota (0.99)
10. Iowa (0.97)
11. Purdue (0.96) ¶ 5:00 AM
All games, thru January 16
1. Ohio State (1.15)
2. Indiana (1.14)
3. Michigan State (1.12)
4. Illinois (1.11)
5. Michigan (1.10)
6. Wisconsin (1.10)
7. Penn State (1.07)
8. Northwestern (1.00)
9. Minnesota (0.99)
10. Iowa (0.97)
11. Purdue (0.96) ¶ 5:00 AM
Defensive efficiency: opponent points per possession (Opp. PPP--more about this stat)
All games, thru January 16
1. Iowa (0.82)
2. Illinois (0.86)
3. Minnesota (0.91)
4. Wisconsin (0.92)
5. Northwestern (0.93)
6. Ohio State (0.95)
7. Indiana (0.95)
8. Michigan (0.95)
9. Purdue (1.01)
10. Michigan State (1.01)
11. Penn State (1.02) ¶ 4:50 AM
All games, thru January 16
1. Iowa (0.82)
2. Illinois (0.86)
3. Minnesota (0.91)
4. Wisconsin (0.92)
5. Northwestern (0.93)
6. Ohio State (0.95)
7. Indiana (0.95)
8. Michigan (0.95)
9. Purdue (1.01)
10. Michigan State (1.01)
11. Penn State (1.02) ¶ 4:50 AM
Efficiency margin: points per possession (PPP) minus opponent PPP (more about these stats)
All games, thru January 16
1. Illinois (+0.25)
2. Ohio State (+0.20)
3. Indiana (+0.19)
4. Wisconsin (+0.18)
5. Michigan (+0.15)
6. Iowa (+0.15)
7. Michigan State (+0.11)
8. Minnesota (+0.08)
9. Northwestern (+0.07)
10. Penn State (+0.05)
11. Purdue (-0.05) ¶ 4:40 AM
All games, thru January 16
1. Illinois (+0.25)
2. Ohio State (+0.20)
3. Indiana (+0.19)
4. Wisconsin (+0.18)
5. Michigan (+0.15)
6. Iowa (+0.15)
7. Michigan State (+0.11)
8. Minnesota (+0.08)
9. Northwestern (+0.07)
10. Penn State (+0.05)
11. Purdue (-0.05) ¶ 4:40 AM
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.)
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
All games, thru January 16
1. Indiana (61.6)
2. Ohio State (56.9)
3. Michigan (54.8)
4. Michigan State (54.3)
5. Penn State (53.3)
6. Illinois (53.0)
7. Northwestern (52.5)
8. Wisconsin (52.4)
9. Purdue (51.4)
10. Minnesota (49.3)
11. Iowa (46.5)
Opponent eFG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Iowa (41.6)
2. Illinois (42.8)
3. Wisconsin (45.4)
4. Northwestern (46.4)
5. Indiana (46.9)
6. Michigan (47.7)
7. Ohio State (48.5)
8. Minnesota (48.7)
9. Michigan State (49.7)
10. Purdue (50.5)
11. Penn State (50.6) ¶ 4:30 AM
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
All games, thru January 16
1. Indiana (61.6)
2. Ohio State (56.9)
3. Michigan (54.8)
4. Michigan State (54.3)
5. Penn State (53.3)
6. Illinois (53.0)
7. Northwestern (52.5)
8. Wisconsin (52.4)
9. Purdue (51.4)
10. Minnesota (49.3)
11. Iowa (46.5)
Opponent eFG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Iowa (41.6)
2. Illinois (42.8)
3. Wisconsin (45.4)
4. Northwestern (46.4)
5. Indiana (46.9)
6. Michigan (47.7)
7. Ohio State (48.5)
8. Minnesota (48.7)
9. Michigan State (49.7)
10. Purdue (50.5)
11. Penn State (50.6) ¶ 4:30 AM
3FG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Indiana (47.4)
2. Ohio State (41.7)
3. Michigan State (39.2)
4. Michigan (38.9)
5. Illinois (38.1)
6. Wisconsin (37.5)
7. Penn State (36.9)
8. Purdue (34.9)
9. Minnesota (33.8)
10. Iowa (31.9)
11. Northwestern (31.3)
Opponent 3FG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Illinois (27.8)
2. Northwestern (29.1)
3. Iowa (29.8)
4. Indiana (32.0)
5. Wisconsin (32.8)
6. Penn State (33.1)
7. Ohio State (34.6)
8. Michigan (35.8)
9. Michigan State (37.2)
10. Purdue (39.8)
11. Minnesota (40.4) ¶ 4:20 AM
All games, thru January 16
1. Indiana (47.4)
2. Ohio State (41.7)
3. Michigan State (39.2)
4. Michigan (38.9)
5. Illinois (38.1)
6. Wisconsin (37.5)
7. Penn State (36.9)
8. Purdue (34.9)
9. Minnesota (33.8)
10. Iowa (31.9)
11. Northwestern (31.3)
Opponent 3FG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Illinois (27.8)
2. Northwestern (29.1)
3. Iowa (29.8)
4. Indiana (32.0)
5. Wisconsin (32.8)
6. Penn State (33.1)
7. Ohio State (34.6)
8. Michigan (35.8)
9. Michigan State (37.2)
10. Purdue (39.8)
11. Minnesota (40.4) ¶ 4:20 AM
2FG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Northwestern (56.7)
2. Indiana (56.3)
3. Ohio State (53.5)
4. Michigan (53.3)
5. Michigan State (52.6)
6. Penn State (52.5)
7. Purdue (51.0)
8. Wisconsin (50.7)
9. Illinois (50.5)
10. Minnesota (48.8)
11. Iowa (46.0)
Opponent 2FG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Iowa (40.1)
2. Minnesota (43.3)
3. Illinois (43.3)
4. Wisconsin (43.3)
5. Michigan (44.4)
6. Purdue (45.6)
7. Michigan State (46.2)
8. Indiana (46.4)
9. Ohio State (47.2)
10. Northwestern (48.4)
11. Penn State (51.2) ¶ 4:10 AM
All games, thru January 16
1. Northwestern (56.7)
2. Indiana (56.3)
3. Ohio State (53.5)
4. Michigan (53.3)
5. Michigan State (52.6)
6. Penn State (52.5)
7. Purdue (51.0)
8. Wisconsin (50.7)
9. Illinois (50.5)
10. Minnesota (48.8)
11. Iowa (46.0)
Opponent 2FG pct.
All games, thru January 16
1. Iowa (40.1)
2. Minnesota (43.3)
3. Illinois (43.3)
4. Wisconsin (43.3)
5. Michigan (44.4)
6. Purdue (45.6)
7. Michigan State (46.2)
8. Indiana (46.4)
9. Ohio State (47.2)
10. Northwestern (48.4)
11. Penn State (51.2) ¶ 4:10 AM
Turnover percentage
TOs/team possessions
All games, thru January 16
1. Wisconsin (18.0)
2. Ohio State (19.5)
3. Illinois (20.1)
4. Northwestern (20.3)
5. Penn State (20.8)
6. Michigan State (21.1)
7. Iowa (21.7)
8. Indiana (21.7)
9. Minnesota (21.8)
10. Michigan (22.1)
11. Purdue (28.5)
Opponent turnover percentage
All games, thru January 16
1. Minnesota (26.2)
2. Northwestern (25.1)
3. Illinois (23.2)
4. Iowa (23.0)
5. Ohio State (22.6)
6. Indiana (22.0)
7. Purdue (21.9)
8. Wisconsin (21.4)
9. Michigan (21.0)
10. Penn State (20.6)
11. Michigan State (19.6) ¶ 4:00 AM
TOs/team possessions
All games, thru January 16
1. Wisconsin (18.0)
2. Ohio State (19.5)
3. Illinois (20.1)
4. Northwestern (20.3)
5. Penn State (20.8)
6. Michigan State (21.1)
7. Iowa (21.7)
8. Indiana (21.7)
9. Minnesota (21.8)
10. Michigan (22.1)
11. Purdue (28.5)
Opponent turnover percentage
All games, thru January 16
1. Minnesota (26.2)
2. Northwestern (25.1)
3. Illinois (23.2)
4. Iowa (23.0)
5. Ohio State (22.6)
6. Indiana (22.0)
7. Purdue (21.9)
8. Wisconsin (21.4)
9. Michigan (21.0)
10. Penn State (20.6)
11. Michigan State (19.6) ¶ 4:00 AM
Offensive rebound pct.
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 16
1. Illinois (40.9)
2. Penn State (37.7)
3. Purdue (37.3)
4. Michigan (37.2)
5. Michigan State (36.9)
6. Wisconsin (36.2)
7. Minnesota (33.9)
8. Ohio State (33.2)
9. Iowa (32.9)
10. Indiana (29.1)
11. Northwestern (23.7) ¶ 3:50 AM
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 16
1. Illinois (40.9)
2. Penn State (37.7)
3. Purdue (37.3)
4. Michigan (37.2)
5. Michigan State (36.9)
6. Wisconsin (36.2)
7. Minnesota (33.9)
8. Ohio State (33.2)
9. Iowa (32.9)
10. Indiana (29.1)
11. Northwestern (23.7) ¶ 3:50 AM
Defensive rebound pct.
Dreb pct. = drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 16
1. Michigan (71.3)
2. lowa (71.2)
3. Michigan State (70.9)
4. Illinois (70.2)
5. Wisconsin (70.2)
6. Indiana (70.2)
7. Minnesota (70.1)
8. Penn State (68.9)
9. Purdue (68.4)
10. Ohio State (67.9)
11. Northwestern (65.1) ¶ 3:40 AM
Dreb pct. = drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 16
1. Michigan (71.3)
2. lowa (71.2)
3. Michigan State (70.9)
4. Illinois (70.2)
5. Wisconsin (70.2)
6. Indiana (70.2)
7. Minnesota (70.1)
8. Penn State (68.9)
9. Purdue (68.4)
10. Ohio State (67.9)
11. Northwestern (65.1) ¶ 3:40 AM
Possessions per 40 min.
All games, thru January 16
1. Indiana (70.3)
2. Purdue (70.2)
3. Minnesota (70.1)
4. Penn State (68.2)
5. Iowa (68.1)
6. Wisconsin (68.1)
7. Ohio State (67.9)
8. Michigan State (67.7)
9. Illinois (66.1)
10. Michigan (65.8)
11. Northwestern (59.7) ¶ 3:30 AM
All games, thru January 16
1. Indiana (70.3)
2. Purdue (70.2)
3. Minnesota (70.1)
4. Penn State (68.2)
5. Iowa (68.1)
6. Wisconsin (68.1)
7. Ohio State (67.9)
8. Michigan State (67.7)
9. Illinois (66.1)
10. Michigan (65.8)
11. Northwestern (59.7) ¶ 3:30 AM
Friday, January 13, 2006
Alone in first--how'd Wisconsin do it?
Just 13 short days ago, Wisconsin lost at Pitt 73-64, leaving the Badgers at 10-2. A very nice record, to be sure, particularly for a team this young. Still, I think it's fair to say there wasn't much buzz surrounding Bo Ryan's team.
What a difference 13 days makes. UW is 3-0 and the lone remaining undefeated team in Big Ten conference play. Yes, the schedule has helped: Wisconsin's played two home games and a road game at 0-2 Minnesota. On the other hand, the Gophers are 0-2, in part, because the Badgers played well enough to win--and home games against Iowa and Michigan State aren't necessarily the easiest contests the Big Ten has to offer.
How has Wisconsin done it? Have they improved as the season's progressed or are we just taking notice for the first time? Let's take a quick look at some then-and-now goodies:
Wisconsin: first 12 (non-conference) games
Points per possession (PPP): 1.13
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.): 52.5
TO pct.: 17.9
Offensive rebound pct.: 38.6
Opponent PPP: 0.95
Opponent eFG pct.: 47.4
Opponent TO pct.: 21.8
Defensive rebound pct.: 68.9
Wisconsin: last three (Big Ten) games
PPP: 1.02
eFG pct.: 53.0
TO pct.: 17.8
Offensive rebound pct.: 25.9
Opponent PPP: 0.85
Opponent eFG pct.: 38.3
Opponent TO pct.: 17.8
Defensive rebound pct.: 72.8
Keep in mind the numbers almost invariably get uglier when you get to conference play: you score less efficiently and your opponent scores more efficiently because the level of competition is dramatically improved. (Last year, for example, the only exception to this uglier-numbers rule was Indiana, who found a schedule with just one game each against Final Four-bound Illinois and Michigan State more hospitable statistically than a non-conference slate that included North Carolina, Connecticut, and Kentucky.)
So, bearing this tendency in mind, the Badgers' sudden dip in offensive efficiency (from 1.13 to 1.02 points per possession) is notable, certainly, but not necessarily cause for alarm (particularly not when you're 3-0 and in first place). As for the similarly pronounced drop-off in offensive rebounding, I've discussed (with the active participation of the alert readers) the Badgers' work on the offensive glass at some length. I'm on the record as seeing UW's historically low numbers for offensive rebounding as a conscious stylistic choice by Bo Ryan, one that favors offensive spacing and transition D over crashing the offensive glass. (That being said, a 25.9 offensive reb. pct. is still too low--last year the Badgers posted a 33.1--and I fully expect that number to increase in the weeks ahead.) So much for the offense.
But look at the D: it's actually improved dramatically (from 0.95 points allowed per possession to 0.85). And the primary area of improvement has been FG defense, where Wisconsin is suddenly achieving Iowa-like results: Big Ten opponents have just a 38.3 effective FG pct. against UW.
Is this a fluke, attributable to Wisconsin playing two teams struggling offensively (Iowa and Minnesota)? Or is it sustainable, as suggested by the Badgers' defensive success against a very good offensive team (Michigan State)? Easy answer: we'll find out Wednesday, when Wisconsin plays at Ohio State. The Buckeyes lead the league in offensive efficiency, with a gaudy 1.25 points per possession in conference play. (A number admittedly skewed by a laughably lopsided home win by OSU over Penn State.)
Meantime: hitherto stout defensive stalwarts of Madison, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State plays Michigan State in Columbus Sunday. Spartan guard Shannon Brown says he may or may not be back next year for his senior season: "If I have to stay, I'll stay. If I don't, I don't."...Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says for "the Spartans to win the Big Ten against an extremely tough schedule," Mo Ager has to be the man....Detroit News Spartan watcher Dave Dye says Sunday's game in Columbus is huge if State is to entertain any hopes of catching Wisconsin: "The Badgers should be 4-0 after Saturday's home game against Northwestern. They also don't have to play on the road against Illinois and Indiana. Considering that scheduling advantage, falling three games behind Wisconsin after two weeks would be a very tough obstacle to overcome."
Illinois plays Michigan tomorrow in Champaign. What are the chances of the Wolverines winning at the Assembly Hall? "None," according to Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News. (Well, there you are.)...Coming off the Illini's poor offensive showing in their 63-48 loss at Iowa last Saturday, Bruce Weber admits he's been tough on his team this week in practice ("We've been pretty hard on them"). In fact: "It's been a long week." Illinois big man James Augustine agrees: "Coach has been on us. But the guys have been taking it pretty good. When you're winning, you kind of get cocky. You're like, 'Let's keep doing what we're doing.' Now people are more excited to learn. A lot of people are listening."...Profile of offensive-work-in-progress Brian Randle here. Recruiting buzz on Chicago Marshall senior guard Patrick Beverley here.
Penn State plays Iowa tomorrow in State College. Spanking good game previews to be had out there from Jeff Rice of the Centre Daily Times (here) and, of course, from canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska (here)....Hawkeye sophomore J.R. Angle is redshirting this year; profile here. The Hawks will be the subject of a behind-the-scenes feature to be aired on ESPN2 later this month.
Wisconsin play Northwestern tomorrow in Madison. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Jeff Potrykus says Badger fans should count themselves fortunate to have had the likes of Dick Bennett and now Bo Ryan at the helm in Madison.
Purdue plays Minnesota tomorrow night in West Lafayette. Nifty assessment of where the Gophers are now here, courtesy of Golden Gopher Hoops. Briskly efficient retelling of how they got to where they are here, via Gopher Hoops.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Hoosier no like Hoosier D
Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate:
Wonk,
Watching the Hoosiers play at Michigan State was not easy.
You've stated that the Hoosiers are more enjoyable now that they're up-tempo (at least compared to last year). However, Wednesday night was a debacle. I'd rather watch them play great defense (and win) than see another performance like this. I understand that MSU had a lot to play for (0-3 going to OSU is not good to say the least). But the Hoosiers should have been called the Generals, as they made MSU look like the Globetrotters.
(By the way, Wonk, you touched on IU being at the mercy of Killingsworth on the off. boards. But you missed a big point, how does he play 34 minutes and get one rebound? Every other Hoosier that played more than 10 minutes got at least two boards.)
Still, all in all, I am not worried as MSU is a good team and I expected this (if not worse) after MSU's performances at Illinois and Wisconsin. If IU plays this type of "defense" again (I wonder how much missing Monroe affected the suddenly-porous perimeter defense) at home vs. Illinois, then the Davis-haters will be out in force.
Nate D.
Indy
Thanks, Nate. As for Killingsworth, one board is indeed a tad on the paltry side. Duly noted.
Spartan no like Spartan D
Hi, Wonk,
That Indiana-MSU game featured no defense on either end. I am still concerned about the Spartan defense--it's improved over the course of the season but is still nowhere near where it needs to be for us to win the Big Ten or go very far in the tournament. Still, Indiana looked even worse than we did on D last night. I can only hope Ohio State is just as inept, as they will probably shoot close to or above 50 percent against us.
Izzo seems surprisingly complacent about our D. I'm not sure why that is, but I'm sure it can't be because he's unaware of how poorly we're playing. If you give up 50 percent three point shooting (or even two point shooting) once, you can chalk it up to the other team having a hot night, but when it happens repeatedly, it's your D.
One thing that really bugs me is the fact that we are last in the league in forcing turnovers. This is a team that claims to want to run. Shouldn't such a team be trying to force turnovers to create easy transition baskets? Instead we almost never pressure the ball or overplay the passing lanes. I understand wanting to play fundamentally sound, "keep 'em in front of you" defense but I would still like to see us take a more chances to force turnovers. We might give up the occasional easy bucket, but given the high percentages teams are shooting against us, it seems like they're all "easy buckets" for our opponents. At least forcing turnovers might give us some easy baskets on the other end. (Then again, given our performance against Indiana, maybe all of ours are "easy baskets" too).
I just have this lingering concern about what happens when an unstoppable force (the super-efficient MSU offense) meets an immovable object (a top shelf defense): what you get is this year's MSU-Illinois game (or, worse, MSU-Wisconsin). Maybe the Flintstone era has permanently conditioned me to expect the worst from the MSU offense, but I still can't get used to the idea of us winning by outscoring the other team rather than using our defense to bludgeon them into submission.
Mark J.
Fret duly recorded--thanks, Mark! ¶ 5:56 AM
Just 13 short days ago, Wisconsin lost at Pitt 73-64, leaving the Badgers at 10-2. A very nice record, to be sure, particularly for a team this young. Still, I think it's fair to say there wasn't much buzz surrounding Bo Ryan's team.
What a difference 13 days makes. UW is 3-0 and the lone remaining undefeated team in Big Ten conference play. Yes, the schedule has helped: Wisconsin's played two home games and a road game at 0-2 Minnesota. On the other hand, the Gophers are 0-2, in part, because the Badgers played well enough to win--and home games against Iowa and Michigan State aren't necessarily the easiest contests the Big Ten has to offer.
How has Wisconsin done it? Have they improved as the season's progressed or are we just taking notice for the first time? Let's take a quick look at some then-and-now goodies:
Wisconsin: first 12 (non-conference) games
Points per possession (PPP): 1.13
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.): 52.5
TO pct.: 17.9
Offensive rebound pct.: 38.6
Opponent PPP: 0.95
Opponent eFG pct.: 47.4
Opponent TO pct.: 21.8
Defensive rebound pct.: 68.9
Wisconsin: last three (Big Ten) games
PPP: 1.02
eFG pct.: 53.0
TO pct.: 17.8
Offensive rebound pct.: 25.9
Opponent PPP: 0.85
Opponent eFG pct.: 38.3
Opponent TO pct.: 17.8
Defensive rebound pct.: 72.8
Keep in mind the numbers almost invariably get uglier when you get to conference play: you score less efficiently and your opponent scores more efficiently because the level of competition is dramatically improved. (Last year, for example, the only exception to this uglier-numbers rule was Indiana, who found a schedule with just one game each against Final Four-bound Illinois and Michigan State more hospitable statistically than a non-conference slate that included North Carolina, Connecticut, and Kentucky.)
So, bearing this tendency in mind, the Badgers' sudden dip in offensive efficiency (from 1.13 to 1.02 points per possession) is notable, certainly, but not necessarily cause for alarm (particularly not when you're 3-0 and in first place). As for the similarly pronounced drop-off in offensive rebounding, I've discussed (with the active participation of the alert readers) the Badgers' work on the offensive glass at some length. I'm on the record as seeing UW's historically low numbers for offensive rebounding as a conscious stylistic choice by Bo Ryan, one that favors offensive spacing and transition D over crashing the offensive glass. (That being said, a 25.9 offensive reb. pct. is still too low--last year the Badgers posted a 33.1--and I fully expect that number to increase in the weeks ahead.) So much for the offense.
But look at the D: it's actually improved dramatically (from 0.95 points allowed per possession to 0.85). And the primary area of improvement has been FG defense, where Wisconsin is suddenly achieving Iowa-like results: Big Ten opponents have just a 38.3 effective FG pct. against UW.
Is this a fluke, attributable to Wisconsin playing two teams struggling offensively (Iowa and Minnesota)? Or is it sustainable, as suggested by the Badgers' defensive success against a very good offensive team (Michigan State)? Easy answer: we'll find out Wednesday, when Wisconsin plays at Ohio State. The Buckeyes lead the league in offensive efficiency, with a gaudy 1.25 points per possession in conference play. (A number admittedly skewed by a laughably lopsided home win by OSU over Penn State.)
Meantime: hitherto stout defensive stalwarts of Madison, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Ohio State plays Michigan State in Columbus Sunday. Spartan guard Shannon Brown says he may or may not be back next year for his senior season: "If I have to stay, I'll stay. If I don't, I don't."...Detroit Free Press columnist Michael Rosenberg says for "the Spartans to win the Big Ten against an extremely tough schedule," Mo Ager has to be the man....Detroit News Spartan watcher Dave Dye says Sunday's game in Columbus is huge if State is to entertain any hopes of catching Wisconsin: "The Badgers should be 4-0 after Saturday's home game against Northwestern. They also don't have to play on the road against Illinois and Indiana. Considering that scheduling advantage, falling three games behind Wisconsin after two weeks would be a very tough obstacle to overcome."
Illinois plays Michigan tomorrow in Champaign. What are the chances of the Wolverines winning at the Assembly Hall? "None," according to Jim Spadafore of the Detroit News. (Well, there you are.)...Coming off the Illini's poor offensive showing in their 63-48 loss at Iowa last Saturday, Bruce Weber admits he's been tough on his team this week in practice ("We've been pretty hard on them"). In fact: "It's been a long week." Illinois big man James Augustine agrees: "Coach has been on us. But the guys have been taking it pretty good. When you're winning, you kind of get cocky. You're like, 'Let's keep doing what we're doing.' Now people are more excited to learn. A lot of people are listening."...Profile of offensive-work-in-progress Brian Randle here. Recruiting buzz on Chicago Marshall senior guard Patrick Beverley here.
Penn State plays Iowa tomorrow in State College. Spanking good game previews to be had out there from Jeff Rice of the Centre Daily Times (here) and, of course, from canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska (here)....Hawkeye sophomore J.R. Angle is redshirting this year; profile here. The Hawks will be the subject of a behind-the-scenes feature to be aired on ESPN2 later this month.
Wisconsin play Northwestern tomorrow in Madison. Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist Jeff Potrykus says Badger fans should count themselves fortunate to have had the likes of Dick Bennett and now Bo Ryan at the helm in Madison.
Purdue plays Minnesota tomorrow night in West Lafayette. Nifty assessment of where the Gophers are now here, courtesy of Golden Gopher Hoops. Briskly efficient retelling of how they got to where they are here, via Gopher Hoops.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Hoosier no like Hoosier D
Latest update from alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate:
Wonk,
Watching the Hoosiers play at Michigan State was not easy.
You've stated that the Hoosiers are more enjoyable now that they're up-tempo (at least compared to last year). However, Wednesday night was a debacle. I'd rather watch them play great defense (and win) than see another performance like this. I understand that MSU had a lot to play for (0-3 going to OSU is not good to say the least). But the Hoosiers should have been called the Generals, as they made MSU look like the Globetrotters.
(By the way, Wonk, you touched on IU being at the mercy of Killingsworth on the off. boards. But you missed a big point, how does he play 34 minutes and get one rebound? Every other Hoosier that played more than 10 minutes got at least two boards.)
Still, all in all, I am not worried as MSU is a good team and I expected this (if not worse) after MSU's performances at Illinois and Wisconsin. If IU plays this type of "defense" again (I wonder how much missing Monroe affected the suddenly-porous perimeter defense) at home vs. Illinois, then the Davis-haters will be out in force.
Nate D.
Indy
Thanks, Nate. As for Killingsworth, one board is indeed a tad on the paltry side. Duly noted.
Spartan no like Spartan D
Hi, Wonk,
That Indiana-MSU game featured no defense on either end. I am still concerned about the Spartan defense--it's improved over the course of the season but is still nowhere near where it needs to be for us to win the Big Ten or go very far in the tournament. Still, Indiana looked even worse than we did on D last night. I can only hope Ohio State is just as inept, as they will probably shoot close to or above 50 percent against us.
Izzo seems surprisingly complacent about our D. I'm not sure why that is, but I'm sure it can't be because he's unaware of how poorly we're playing. If you give up 50 percent three point shooting (or even two point shooting) once, you can chalk it up to the other team having a hot night, but when it happens repeatedly, it's your D.
One thing that really bugs me is the fact that we are last in the league in forcing turnovers. This is a team that claims to want to run. Shouldn't such a team be trying to force turnovers to create easy transition baskets? Instead we almost never pressure the ball or overplay the passing lanes. I understand wanting to play fundamentally sound, "keep 'em in front of you" defense but I would still like to see us take a more chances to force turnovers. We might give up the occasional easy bucket, but given the high percentages teams are shooting against us, it seems like they're all "easy buckets" for our opponents. At least forcing turnovers might give us some easy baskets on the other end. (Then again, given our performance against Indiana, maybe all of ours are "easy baskets" too).
I just have this lingering concern about what happens when an unstoppable force (the super-efficient MSU offense) meets an immovable object (a top shelf defense): what you get is this year's MSU-Illinois game (or, worse, MSU-Wisconsin). Maybe the Flintstone era has permanently conditioned me to expect the worst from the MSU offense, but I still can't get used to the idea of us winning by outscoring the other team rather than using our defense to bludgeon them into submission.
Mark J.
Fret duly recorded--thanks, Mark! ¶ 5:56 AM
Thursday, January 12, 2006
Call them "Iniana." Where's the D?
We've officially reached the point where it's OK to fret about previously worry-free Indiana. That point came for this blogger with about 12 minutes left in last night's surprisingly easy 87-73 dissection of the Hoosiers at the hands of Michigan State in East Lansing.
At that point I watched in something approaching open-mouthed disbelief as, with IU set in its half-court D and the shot clock winding down, Drew Neitzel (Drew Neitzel!) dribbled unmolested to the hole and laid the ball in. Now, Neitzel is a stellar offensive talent, one I've praised at some length. But he is not, to say the least, renowned and feared throughout the conference as a finisher. Yet there he was, waltzing happily to the basket for the gift deuce.
That's bad enough. What's worse is what followed: nothing. What should happen after Neitzel goes through your half-court D like a bride going down the aisle? Throw a stick at the top of the Big Ten's defensive rankings and you'll see teams where there would've been an immediate time out, benchings, and likely some clipboard damage.
Which would be eminently appropriate when your offense plays as well as Indiana's did last night (61.3 effective FG pct., only 12 turnovers) and yet you still lose by 14. (Incredible.) The Hoosier D gave the Spartans 1.31 points per possession. How bad is that? Worse than any other defense that's come to the Breslin Center this season--worse than IPFW (1.23), Georgia Tech (1.20), Cleveland State (1.07), Florida International (1.21), Tennessee Tech (1.09), or Coppin State (1.29).
Even without D.J. White, the Hoosiers still have a lethally efficient offense--they proved as much last night (1.10 points per possession). But make no mistake: if this team doesn't play D, they're doomed. Their offense is good but not that good. With their 1-4 sets they'll likely continue to struggle on the offensive glass (just four offensive boards last night) and thus be wholly at the mercy of Marco Killingsworth's quite understandable fatigue and the threes that can't always fall.
As for the Spartans, they got their groove back for a night. Kudos to Mo Ager (28 points on 9-of-13 shooting) and Paul Davis (23-10 dub-dub in less than 30 minutes). They'll need to keep up that level of production this Sunday at Ohio State. The Buckeyes, like Indiana, feature multiple proficient three-point shooters in well-spaced 1-4 sets with Terence Dials down low. It should all look very familiar to Tom Izzo's men. (Box score.)
Links
At ESPN.com this morning, Andy Katz says Michigan State "could easily be 1-3 after Sunday's road game at Ohio State--and still win the league."...With under eight minutes to play, a hard foul by Killingsworth on Davis led the two young men to engage in what appeared to be some lively conversation concerning movies, music, and the influence of the party press in the presidential election of 1840. State then proceeded to put the game away with a 10-0 run. Cause-and-effect or post hoc ergo propter hoc? You make the call!...Asked if this had been one of them thar statement games, Mo Ager didn't hesitate: "Definitely. Indiana's a great team. We beat them pretty good. That was a good statement."...Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says the home crowd "helped scare off Indiana" and "booed Hoosier big man Marco Killingsworth each time he touched the ball." Killingsworth should seriously consider bringing the Izzone along with him to every game: he scored 27 points on 13-of-22 shooting....The Indiana assistant tasked with defense, Donnie Marsh, was not a happy man after the game: "It looked like everyone was standing around waiting for someone else to make a play." More from head man Mike Davis: "I thought we fought hard the first half, but they made the game too hard for us in the second half."...It says here Michigan State's defense "showed some mettle." If "mettle" means "allowing the highest effective FG pct. you've allowed any opponent this year," by gar State had it!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wonk's elderly readers may recall a bygone era known as "Monday," when your intrepid blogger opened his post with the following headline:
First-place Badgers--get used to sound of that.
How true! With Indiana's loss and another rather more surprising result discussed below, Wisconsin will now have to lose at least two games to be knocked out of first. And, given their schedule, they may not lose two games for a while.
Penn State beat Northwestern 65-61 last night in Evanston. Edvard Munch-level horrific outside shooting, which has been the Wildcats' nemesis all season, again inflicted pain on NU fans, as the home team went just 8-of-27 on their threes. The Nittany Lions now have a leg up on such putatively scary beasts as Illinois, Michigan State, and Iowa: they have a road win. Geary Claxton notched what is arguably history's ugliest dub-dub: a 15-10 on 15 FGAs. As for the Wildcats, no offense to PSU but this is indeed "one of the most disheartening losses in coach Bill Carmody’s tenure." How so? The fact that going into last night Penn State hadn't won a Big Ten road game since March 1, 2001 (not a typo) might have something to do with it. "I didn't see any spark tonight," Carmody said afterward. BONUS idle speculation! How bad must Minnesota feel right now? Think about it: you lost at home to a team that lost at home to Penn State? Ye gods. (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Purdue 80-64 in West Lafayette last night. Led by 17 points from J.J. Sullinger, the Buckeyes hit 11-of-22 threes--and for that Boiler coach Matt Painter blamed his team's defense: "You can't let guys who can shoot the basketball get comfortable and get their heads up. Those guys were having their way tonight. We didn't disrupt anything that they were doing." Purdue's Matt Kiefer posted a Claxtonesque kinda ugly dub-dub: 15-13 on 15 FGAs. For more see the nifty game recap over at the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. (Box score.)
BONUS sprawling and contentious edition of Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The readers have spoken!
And it's a mess! Yesterday I posted an email from alert reader and die-hard Spartan fan Kyle J., who bemoaned the Big Ten's unbalanced schedule, one that spares Wisconsin from playing at Illinois or Indiana this season. The remedy for what ails him, at least according to Kyle, is to add a 12th member and split this thing up into two divisions for true round-robin play.
At that point I asked the readers for their thoughts. Wonk's readers respond!
Should we add a 12th team? No way!
No, no, NO! The Big Ten should certainly NOT add a 12th team to its roster. In fact, if you were to ask me (which you certainly have not), I'd say the two biggest mistakes the Big Ten Conference has made in the past decade and a half were 1) adding Penn State to the conference and 2) the Big Ten Tournament.
Adding Penn State and the Big Ten Tournament eliminated any chance of playing a true double-round robin conference schedule. This leads, invariably, to the computerized scheduling differential that results in Sparty playing a much less favorable conference schedule than Wisconsin, for example.
I have never understood the appeal of Big XII (or, more recently, Big East)-esque mega-conferences. How do you get a sense of who the best teams truly are in the conference when you don't play everyone home and away?
I'm not sure what the best option is anymore, since I don't think the conference can add games to the schedule (or can they?), but mandating that member schools drop two non-conference games for extra league games would certainly help. This would reduce to two the number of teams that each school only plays once, and goes a long ways towards eliminating potential scheduling disparities. It would also ratchet up each school's RPI since they would no longer be playing two games against the University of Little Debbie and Hostess College.
Dustin G.
Goshen, IN
Ditto!
Down-in-spirit Kyle in Lansing is perhaps my inverse, an Up-in-spirit-Badger in Minneapolis, especially after watching the Badgers survive a scare in the sound-box that passes for a Big Ten arena called Williams Arena. (Actually, it's a great place to watch a game.)
That said, in response to the unfairness of the Big Ten schedule, I think the only solution is going to a 20-game, round robin. A 12th team would result in a balanced schedule but how do you determine the divisions? No matter how you slice it, the divisions will almost certainly have too many good teams in one, and not enough in the other as teams go through cycles of decline and success--Indiana and Northwestern are the only teams that have been pretty consistent over the last 30 years. Plus, as Sparty mentioned, there isn't a team that would join the Big Ten. The only logical choice is Notre Dame, but they're not going to throw away an annual $20 million payoff from the BCS (now that they appear to be good at football) to play in a more geographical sensical basketball conference.
Personally, I'd much rather see the Badgers play at Indiana and at Illinois than see them play Coastal Carolina and Pepperdine at home. Sure, they'd have a tougher schedule (and lose more games), but they'd be better prepared for the NCAA Tournament. And winning the Big Ten would be a major accomplishment. At least go to an 18-game schedule, which would result in fewer inequities. Or get rid of Penn State--they should have never been asked to join the Big Ten in the first place....Just kidding--I would miss Joe Pa and his too-short pants in the fall too much.
Plus the Badgers play them twice this year.
Badger in Gopherdom,
Joe S.
Minneapolis
Ditto ditto!
I sympathize with Lansing's Kyle J., who decries the schedule omissions that taint the current regular season champ. But adding a 12th team and splitting into two divisions is no better. The SEC and Big XII demonstrate this devalues regular season play even further.
I see two solutions. The first is simply to restrict the conference tournament to the top six teams. To compensate for schedule anomalies, no one gets a bye. Model it after the medal rounds for hoops and hockey in the Olympics. This is, of course, unrealistic; Jim Delany will never cut anyone out of the tournament.
The other solution is for those of us who deplore the current arrangement to exercise our economic vote. Simply stop going to and watching the Big Ten tournament. A sparse United Center or Conseco Field House crowd and abysmal ratings will send a swift message to Mr. Delany to bring back the old days.
I'm also skeptical of Kyle's assertion that a longer schedule hurts our teams in Big Dance seeding. Currently, a loss early in the conference tourney is damaging; certainly no less so than if it occurred in a late-regular season game. And the conference tournament rewards laggards with a second wind (e.g., 1999's 3-13 Illinois team that ended up in the finals) and requires the top teams to psych themselves up to re-justify their standing.
Kind regards,
Bill P.
Ottawa, Ontario
Should we add Notre Dame? Sure! Will they ever join? Of course not!
Down-in-spirit Kyle is absolutely correct--it is folly to award a regular-season conference championship without each team playing two games against the rest of the league.
If I had the exclusive choice of one school to add to the conference, the logical choice is Notre Dame for geographic proximity, academic excellence and competitive athletics. Hell, their football team plays three or four games against the Big Ten every season anyway (2-2 this season, by the way). ND's status as a small, private school would give Northwestern a sister school. More than half the schools could bus to their games at South Bend. The fit would be natural and raise the profile of the conference even higher. Honestly, who would care if Pitt or Missouri joined the conference? But ND would make an even bigger splash than Penn State did.
But since we'll have eleven teams for the foreseeable future because ND will never join a conference in football, I think a round-robin is in order for us. Yes, teams will beat up on each other more than they do presently but hopefully the selection committee would take that into consideration. But until situations like MSU having to go to Bloomington while Wisconsin skates are resolved, the regular season conference championship is not as meaningful, which is disappointing. Athletic Directors might have to lose High Point or Chicago State from the schedule, but a couple of conference games could be played before Christmas and pique interest earlier.
Cheers,
Matt May
Should we add West Virginia? You bet!
As for a 12th member that has the programs to fit in the Big Ten and is a geographical fit as well, I would say it comes down to two, Mizzou and West Virginia. I don't think Mizzou would leave the Big XII, as they have the rivalries with KU in a whole host of sports.
That leaves WVU. I think they would be a good fit, geographically, it borders both Ohio and Pennsylvania, it gives Penn St. a border rivalry, gets more Big Ten exposure on the east coast (not sure how much, but that's another matter) and WVU may be easy to pry out of the Big East. I am sure their athletic department would rather have Michigan, Penn St. and Ohio St coming in for football games, rather than South Florida, Cincinnati and Louisville. WVU may not want to give up their almost guaranteed spot in the BCS, but I would think in the long term, the athletic program would be better off in the Big Ten.
U. O'Sullivan
Ditto!
As a Penn State alum, I've argued for years that the 12th team should be West Virginia:
- Close proximity to eastern half of conference. Very close to both PSU and OSU, and would not further expand the geographic boundaries of the conference (as opposed to adding, say, Missouri).
- Competitive, with Elite Eight hoops and BCS Bowl winner.
- IS a public land-grant university like most Big Ten schools
- Departure would not significantly disrupt WVU's current conference
The only other team that can match most these criteria would be Notre Dame, but they have some compelling arguments AGAINST joining the Big Ten.
Mark H.
Middletown, PA
Should we add...Syracuse? (That's right, I said Syracuse.) Heck, why not!
Since my e-mail prompted the question, I'll give a response. The most logical 12th team from a geographic/rivalry stand point would, of course, be Notre Dame. But that institution's arrogance and TV contract preclude that possibility. To me, the only other logical choice would be Syracuse, for the following reasons:
1) Competitive football and men's basketball programs.
2) Make some sense geographically now that Penn State is in the conference.
3) Meets the academic standards of the Big Ten, which has the highest level of academic rigor among the BCS conferences. All 11 current conference members are also members of the Association of American Universities (we're the only conference that can make that claim), which represents major research universities. Syracuse is also a member of the association.
I have no idea if there's any chance Syracuse would consider this, given that they rejected ACC membership. But I would think it makes sense from a football perspective, at least, since the best Big East football programs (Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC) all left for the ACC.
Kyle J.
Lansing
Well tussled, readers! Wonk salutes you!
¶ 6:12 AM
We've officially reached the point where it's OK to fret about previously worry-free Indiana. That point came for this blogger with about 12 minutes left in last night's surprisingly easy 87-73 dissection of the Hoosiers at the hands of Michigan State in East Lansing.
At that point I watched in something approaching open-mouthed disbelief as, with IU set in its half-court D and the shot clock winding down, Drew Neitzel (Drew Neitzel!) dribbled unmolested to the hole and laid the ball in. Now, Neitzel is a stellar offensive talent, one I've praised at some length. But he is not, to say the least, renowned and feared throughout the conference as a finisher. Yet there he was, waltzing happily to the basket for the gift deuce.
That's bad enough. What's worse is what followed: nothing. What should happen after Neitzel goes through your half-court D like a bride going down the aisle? Throw a stick at the top of the Big Ten's defensive rankings and you'll see teams where there would've been an immediate time out, benchings, and likely some clipboard damage.
Which would be eminently appropriate when your offense plays as well as Indiana's did last night (61.3 effective FG pct., only 12 turnovers) and yet you still lose by 14. (Incredible.) The Hoosier D gave the Spartans 1.31 points per possession. How bad is that? Worse than any other defense that's come to the Breslin Center this season--worse than IPFW (1.23), Georgia Tech (1.20), Cleveland State (1.07), Florida International (1.21), Tennessee Tech (1.09), or Coppin State (1.29).
Even without D.J. White, the Hoosiers still have a lethally efficient offense--they proved as much last night (1.10 points per possession). But make no mistake: if this team doesn't play D, they're doomed. Their offense is good but not that good. With their 1-4 sets they'll likely continue to struggle on the offensive glass (just four offensive boards last night) and thus be wholly at the mercy of Marco Killingsworth's quite understandable fatigue and the threes that can't always fall.
As for the Spartans, they got their groove back for a night. Kudos to Mo Ager (28 points on 9-of-13 shooting) and Paul Davis (23-10 dub-dub in less than 30 minutes). They'll need to keep up that level of production this Sunday at Ohio State. The Buckeyes, like Indiana, feature multiple proficient three-point shooters in well-spaced 1-4 sets with Terence Dials down low. It should all look very familiar to Tom Izzo's men. (Box score.)
Links
At ESPN.com this morning, Andy Katz says Michigan State "could easily be 1-3 after Sunday's road game at Ohio State--and still win the league."...With under eight minutes to play, a hard foul by Killingsworth on Davis led the two young men to engage in what appeared to be some lively conversation concerning movies, music, and the influence of the party press in the presidential election of 1840. State then proceeded to put the game away with a 10-0 run. Cause-and-effect or post hoc ergo propter hoc? You make the call!...Asked if this had been one of them thar statement games, Mo Ager didn't hesitate: "Definitely. Indiana's a great team. We beat them pretty good. That was a good statement."...Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says the home crowd "helped scare off Indiana" and "booed Hoosier big man Marco Killingsworth each time he touched the ball." Killingsworth should seriously consider bringing the Izzone along with him to every game: he scored 27 points on 13-of-22 shooting....The Indiana assistant tasked with defense, Donnie Marsh, was not a happy man after the game: "It looked like everyone was standing around waiting for someone else to make a play." More from head man Mike Davis: "I thought we fought hard the first half, but they made the game too hard for us in the second half."...It says here Michigan State's defense "showed some mettle." If "mettle" means "allowing the highest effective FG pct. you've allowed any opponent this year," by gar State had it!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wonk's elderly readers may recall a bygone era known as "Monday," when your intrepid blogger opened his post with the following headline:
First-place Badgers--get used to sound of that.
How true! With Indiana's loss and another rather more surprising result discussed below, Wisconsin will now have to lose at least two games to be knocked out of first. And, given their schedule, they may not lose two games for a while.
Penn State beat Northwestern 65-61 last night in Evanston. Edvard Munch-level horrific outside shooting, which has been the Wildcats' nemesis all season, again inflicted pain on NU fans, as the home team went just 8-of-27 on their threes. The Nittany Lions now have a leg up on such putatively scary beasts as Illinois, Michigan State, and Iowa: they have a road win. Geary Claxton notched what is arguably history's ugliest dub-dub: a 15-10 on 15 FGAs. As for the Wildcats, no offense to PSU but this is indeed "one of the most disheartening losses in coach Bill Carmody’s tenure." How so? The fact that going into last night Penn State hadn't won a Big Ten road game since March 1, 2001 (not a typo) might have something to do with it. "I didn't see any spark tonight," Carmody said afterward. BONUS idle speculation! How bad must Minnesota feel right now? Think about it: you lost at home to a team that lost at home to Penn State? Ye gods. (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Purdue 80-64 in West Lafayette last night. Led by 17 points from J.J. Sullinger, the Buckeyes hit 11-of-22 threes--and for that Boiler coach Matt Painter blamed his team's defense: "You can't let guys who can shoot the basketball get comfortable and get their heads up. Those guys were having their way tonight. We didn't disrupt anything that they were doing." Purdue's Matt Kiefer posted a Claxtonesque kinda ugly dub-dub: 15-13 on 15 FGAs. For more see the nifty game recap over at the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. (Box score.)
BONUS sprawling and contentious edition of Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The readers have spoken!
And it's a mess! Yesterday I posted an email from alert reader and die-hard Spartan fan Kyle J., who bemoaned the Big Ten's unbalanced schedule, one that spares Wisconsin from playing at Illinois or Indiana this season. The remedy for what ails him, at least according to Kyle, is to add a 12th member and split this thing up into two divisions for true round-robin play.
At that point I asked the readers for their thoughts. Wonk's readers respond!
Should we add a 12th team? No way!
No, no, NO! The Big Ten should certainly NOT add a 12th team to its roster. In fact, if you were to ask me (which you certainly have not), I'd say the two biggest mistakes the Big Ten Conference has made in the past decade and a half were 1) adding Penn State to the conference and 2) the Big Ten Tournament.
Adding Penn State and the Big Ten Tournament eliminated any chance of playing a true double-round robin conference schedule. This leads, invariably, to the computerized scheduling differential that results in Sparty playing a much less favorable conference schedule than Wisconsin, for example.
I have never understood the appeal of Big XII (or, more recently, Big East)-esque mega-conferences. How do you get a sense of who the best teams truly are in the conference when you don't play everyone home and away?
I'm not sure what the best option is anymore, since I don't think the conference can add games to the schedule (or can they?), but mandating that member schools drop two non-conference games for extra league games would certainly help. This would reduce to two the number of teams that each school only plays once, and goes a long ways towards eliminating potential scheduling disparities. It would also ratchet up each school's RPI since they would no longer be playing two games against the University of Little Debbie and Hostess College.
Dustin G.
Goshen, IN
Ditto!
Down-in-spirit Kyle in Lansing is perhaps my inverse, an Up-in-spirit-Badger in Minneapolis, especially after watching the Badgers survive a scare in the sound-box that passes for a Big Ten arena called Williams Arena. (Actually, it's a great place to watch a game.)
That said, in response to the unfairness of the Big Ten schedule, I think the only solution is going to a 20-game, round robin. A 12th team would result in a balanced schedule but how do you determine the divisions? No matter how you slice it, the divisions will almost certainly have too many good teams in one, and not enough in the other as teams go through cycles of decline and success--Indiana and Northwestern are the only teams that have been pretty consistent over the last 30 years. Plus, as Sparty mentioned, there isn't a team that would join the Big Ten. The only logical choice is Notre Dame, but they're not going to throw away an annual $20 million payoff from the BCS (now that they appear to be good at football) to play in a more geographical sensical basketball conference.
Personally, I'd much rather see the Badgers play at Indiana and at Illinois than see them play Coastal Carolina and Pepperdine at home. Sure, they'd have a tougher schedule (and lose more games), but they'd be better prepared for the NCAA Tournament. And winning the Big Ten would be a major accomplishment. At least go to an 18-game schedule, which would result in fewer inequities. Or get rid of Penn State--they should have never been asked to join the Big Ten in the first place....Just kidding--I would miss Joe Pa and his too-short pants in the fall too much.
Plus the Badgers play them twice this year.
Badger in Gopherdom,
Joe S.
Minneapolis
Ditto ditto!
I sympathize with Lansing's Kyle J., who decries the schedule omissions that taint the current regular season champ. But adding a 12th team and splitting into two divisions is no better. The SEC and Big XII demonstrate this devalues regular season play even further.
I see two solutions. The first is simply to restrict the conference tournament to the top six teams. To compensate for schedule anomalies, no one gets a bye. Model it after the medal rounds for hoops and hockey in the Olympics. This is, of course, unrealistic; Jim Delany will never cut anyone out of the tournament.
The other solution is for those of us who deplore the current arrangement to exercise our economic vote. Simply stop going to and watching the Big Ten tournament. A sparse United Center or Conseco Field House crowd and abysmal ratings will send a swift message to Mr. Delany to bring back the old days.
I'm also skeptical of Kyle's assertion that a longer schedule hurts our teams in Big Dance seeding. Currently, a loss early in the conference tourney is damaging; certainly no less so than if it occurred in a late-regular season game. And the conference tournament rewards laggards with a second wind (e.g., 1999's 3-13 Illinois team that ended up in the finals) and requires the top teams to psych themselves up to re-justify their standing.
Kind regards,
Bill P.
Ottawa, Ontario
Should we add Notre Dame? Sure! Will they ever join? Of course not!
Down-in-spirit Kyle is absolutely correct--it is folly to award a regular-season conference championship without each team playing two games against the rest of the league.
If I had the exclusive choice of one school to add to the conference, the logical choice is Notre Dame for geographic proximity, academic excellence and competitive athletics. Hell, their football team plays three or four games against the Big Ten every season anyway (2-2 this season, by the way). ND's status as a small, private school would give Northwestern a sister school. More than half the schools could bus to their games at South Bend. The fit would be natural and raise the profile of the conference even higher. Honestly, who would care if Pitt or Missouri joined the conference? But ND would make an even bigger splash than Penn State did.
But since we'll have eleven teams for the foreseeable future because ND will never join a conference in football, I think a round-robin is in order for us. Yes, teams will beat up on each other more than they do presently but hopefully the selection committee would take that into consideration. But until situations like MSU having to go to Bloomington while Wisconsin skates are resolved, the regular season conference championship is not as meaningful, which is disappointing. Athletic Directors might have to lose High Point or Chicago State from the schedule, but a couple of conference games could be played before Christmas and pique interest earlier.
Cheers,
Matt May
Should we add West Virginia? You bet!
As for a 12th member that has the programs to fit in the Big Ten and is a geographical fit as well, I would say it comes down to two, Mizzou and West Virginia. I don't think Mizzou would leave the Big XII, as they have the rivalries with KU in a whole host of sports.
That leaves WVU. I think they would be a good fit, geographically, it borders both Ohio and Pennsylvania, it gives Penn St. a border rivalry, gets more Big Ten exposure on the east coast (not sure how much, but that's another matter) and WVU may be easy to pry out of the Big East. I am sure their athletic department would rather have Michigan, Penn St. and Ohio St coming in for football games, rather than South Florida, Cincinnati and Louisville. WVU may not want to give up their almost guaranteed spot in the BCS, but I would think in the long term, the athletic program would be better off in the Big Ten.
U. O'Sullivan
Ditto!
As a Penn State alum, I've argued for years that the 12th team should be West Virginia:
- Close proximity to eastern half of conference. Very close to both PSU and OSU, and would not further expand the geographic boundaries of the conference (as opposed to adding, say, Missouri).
- Competitive, with Elite Eight hoops and BCS Bowl winner.
- IS a public land-grant university like most Big Ten schools
- Departure would not significantly disrupt WVU's current conference
The only other team that can match most these criteria would be Notre Dame, but they have some compelling arguments AGAINST joining the Big Ten.
Mark H.
Middletown, PA
Should we add...Syracuse? (That's right, I said Syracuse.) Heck, why not!
Since my e-mail prompted the question, I'll give a response. The most logical 12th team from a geographic/rivalry stand point would, of course, be Notre Dame. But that institution's arrogance and TV contract preclude that possibility. To me, the only other logical choice would be Syracuse, for the following reasons:
1) Competitive football and men's basketball programs.
2) Make some sense geographically now that Penn State is in the conference.
3) Meets the academic standards of the Big Ten, which has the highest level of academic rigor among the BCS conferences. All 11 current conference members are also members of the Association of American Universities (we're the only conference that can make that claim), which represents major research universities. Syracuse is also a member of the association.
I have no idea if there's any chance Syracuse would consider this, given that they rejected ACC membership. But I would think it makes sense from a football perspective, at least, since the best Big East football programs (Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC) all left for the ACC.
Kyle J.
Lansing
Well tussled, readers! Wonk salutes you!
¶ 6:12 AM
Wednesday, January 11, 2006
Individually wrapped
Player stats have been updated. They're tempo-free! They're current through January 10! They're excerpted here! (12+ minutes per game.)
Scoring efficiency: PPWS (complete list)
1. Errek Suhr, Indiana (1.62)
2. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.61)
3. Jamal Abu-Shamala, Minnesota (1.57)
4. Jamar Smith, Illinois (1.45)
5. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (1.41)
Suhr is about to disappear from this leader board--because he's about to drop below the 12 minute per game limit.
Rebounding pct. (complete list)
1. Graham Brown, Michigan (20.6)
2. Paul Davis, Michigan State (19.3)
3. Marquise Gray, Michigan State (17.5)
4. Courtney Sims, Michigan (17.4)
5. James Augustine, Illinois (17.3)
Watch out (in a good way) if he gets enough minutes: Marcus White of Purdue clocks in at 20.3.
Offensive rebounding (oreb pct.)
1. Marquise Gray, Michigan State (14.8)
2. Courtney Sims, Michigan (14.5)
3. Graham Brown, Michigan (13.7)
4. J'son Stamper, Minnesota (13.2)
5. Warren Carter, Illinois (13.2)
Bit of an optical illusion: Carter barely makes the minutes cutoff; Gary Ware of Purdue (15.3) barely misses it.
Defensive rebounding (dreb pct.)
1. Graham Brown, Michigan (26.5)
2. Paul Davis, Michigan State (24.9)
3. Greg Brunner, Iowa (22.3)
4. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (22.1)
5. James Augustine, Illinois (21.8)
Watch out (in a good way) if he gets enough minutes: Jonathan Williams of Minnesota clocks in at 25.8.
Assists per 100 possessions (complete list)
1. Jeff Horner, Iowa (10.6)
2. Daniel Horton, Michigan (10.1)
3. Jerret Smith, Michigan (10.1)
4. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (9.9)
5. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (9.8)
Watch out (in a good way) if he gets enough minutes: Chester Frazier of Illinois clocks in at 10.2 assists per 100 possessions.
Turnovers per 100 possessions (from worst to best--complete list)
1. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (8.8)
2. Rico Tucker, Minnesota (8.2)
3. Courtney Sims, Michigan (6.7)
4. Jerret Smith, Michigan (6.3)
5. Korey Spates, Purdue (6.2)
Watch out (in a not so good way) if he gets enough minutes: the aforementioned Marcus White of Purdue clocks in at 14.1 TOs per 100 possessions (ye gods).
BONUS individual wrappings! Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska has posted individual numbers for Big Ten leaders on both the offensive and defensive side. You'll learn that Rico Tucker and Vincent Grier put the "fun" in "fundamentally felonious"! Plus--the admirably efficient Paul Davis has just a hint of Courtney Sims in him: his bad games aren't inefficient per se; rather, his sub par outings are characterized by total silence. Lastly--two words: Matt Kiefer. When did he become Je'Kel Foster? Make haste!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Minnesota 64-62 in Minneapolis last night. The Gophers went almost 16 minutes without a field goal in the first half and consequently the Badgers led 25-6. But Bo Ryan's team then defined "uncharacteristic" by coughing up seven TOs in just three minutes heading into halftime. UW came into this game doing a superb job of holding on to the ball--but they gave the rock away 22 times last night in a 75 possession game. (Kammron Taylor alone had seven TOs.) It kept the Gophers in the game on a night when they couldn't sink any shots. "We showed great character," Vincent Grier said afterward. "Even though it's a loss, it's something to build on. We definitely played great defense." Yes, but it wasn't enough and Minnesota guard Moe Hargrow knew it: "I kind of hate moral victories." Ryan said he was "proud" of how his young team performed in a road game on only one day of rest. Freshman Joe Krabbenhoft looked notably poised sinking two clutch free throws for UW in the final minute. Grier had a 17-11 dub-dub for the home team. Alando Tucker joined that club with a 22-10 effort for Wisconsin but needed 23 FGAs to do it and was 0-of-6 at the line in a tight game. (Watch this. Tucker is officially verging on hack-a-dude territory. Ryan says Tucker is "frustrated on not being able to help the team by making free throws.") Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan says the Gophers look "erratic on the perimeter and shallow inside." For more, see the spanking good blogger recaps here and here from Gopher Hoops and Golden Gopher Hoops, respectively. (Box score.)
Michigan State plays Indiana tonight in East Lansing (ESPN, 7 ET). The Hoosiers will be without the services of big man D.J. White, who injured his left foot in Saturday's win against Ohio State and is out indefinitely. At cbs.sportsline this morning, Gregg Doyel says losing White "will knock the Hoosiers from the short list of serious NCAA championship contenders." Indefatigable Hoosier beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star ponders IU's near future without White here. As for the home team, Spartan coach Tom Izzo has this to say about his team's 0-2 start in conference: "I'm not sure many people expected us to win one or two of those games, but we expected to play a lot better than we did." Specifically, Izzo says he's unhappy with his team's performance on offense: "I don't think we're moving the ball. We looked like a team that stood around, didn't screen, wasn't very organized." (What about the much-maligned D? "Much better," by Izzo's lights.)
Purdue plays Ohio State in West Lafayette tonight. Boiler coach Matt Painter isn't happy with the way his team's been taking care of the ball: "At times, we could commit 20 turnovers against a room full of furniture."
Northwestern plays Penn State tonight in Evanston. Wildcat coach Bill Carmody says he's pleased with the play of freshman guards Sterling Williams and Craig Moore. Nittany Lion coach Ed DeChellis sounds virtually Painter-esque and says his team has to limit its turnovers: "You've got to play every possession like it's the last one."
Illinois freshman PPWS sensation Jamar Smith is profiled here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Spartan no like unbalanced scheduling....
Esteemed Wonk,
As a Spartan booster, I'm trying not to get too far down right now. But it's hard not to, and it's not primarily a function of (1) the 0-2 start in the two toughest places to play in the conference or (2) the disturbingly poor play of Mr. Ager and Mr. Davis. Rather, it's the fact that the conference schedule is so stacked against MSU's effort to make up the two games they're now down against Wisconsin in the standings.
Let's compare the two teams' respective 16-game conference schedules. They play each other twice, home and away, so we'll throw out those games. Out of the remaining 14 games, 10 of the games are the same (they both play Iowa at home, Minnesota on the road, etc.). Here are the four games each team plays that the other doesn't:
WISCONSIN
Home to Northwestern
AT Purdue
AT Penn State
Home to Minnesota
MSU
AT Illinois
Home to Purdue
Home to Michigan
AT Indiana
I think any reasonable observer would agree that this comparison gave at least a two-game advantage (AT Illinois and AT Indiana) to Wisconsin even before conference play started. And I'd rather play Northwestern or Minnesota at home than Michigan this season. Now MSU has already suffered the results of having to play Illinois on the road, but the road game against IU essentially puts them three down against Wisconsin right now. You can argue that MSU simply has to take care of business in Bloomington, but that's a (large) burden they face that Wisconsin won't have to face this year.
I understand that because the NCAA Tournament is king these days (which has generally been a good thing for MSU), there's no chance the league will go to a full round-robin, 20-game schedule (since this would result in Big Ten teams knocking each other's records down even more than they do now). I just don't see how we can go on, though, awarding conference championships to teams that are based to a large degree on random scheduling differences. Adding a 12th team would at least result in balanced schedules within two six-team divisions, but the addition of a school to the conference doesn't seem too likely in the near future.
Signed,
Down-in-spirit in Lansing
Kyle J.
Thanks, Kyle. How 'bout it, alert readers? Should the Big Ten add a 12th member? And, if so, who should it be? I await your thoughts. ¶ 6:18 AM
Player stats have been updated. They're tempo-free! They're current through January 10! They're excerpted here! (12+ minutes per game.)
Scoring efficiency: PPWS (complete list)
1. Errek Suhr, Indiana (1.62)
2. Je'Kel Foster, Ohio State (1.61)
3. Jamal Abu-Shamala, Minnesota (1.57)
4. Jamar Smith, Illinois (1.45)
5. Marshall Strickland, Indiana (1.41)
Suhr is about to disappear from this leader board--because he's about to drop below the 12 minute per game limit.
Rebounding pct. (complete list)
1. Graham Brown, Michigan (20.6)
2. Paul Davis, Michigan State (19.3)
3. Marquise Gray, Michigan State (17.5)
4. Courtney Sims, Michigan (17.4)
5. James Augustine, Illinois (17.3)
Watch out (in a good way) if he gets enough minutes: Marcus White of Purdue clocks in at 20.3.
Offensive rebounding (oreb pct.)
1. Marquise Gray, Michigan State (14.8)
2. Courtney Sims, Michigan (14.5)
3. Graham Brown, Michigan (13.7)
4. J'son Stamper, Minnesota (13.2)
5. Warren Carter, Illinois (13.2)
Bit of an optical illusion: Carter barely makes the minutes cutoff; Gary Ware of Purdue (15.3) barely misses it.
Defensive rebounding (dreb pct.)
1. Graham Brown, Michigan (26.5)
2. Paul Davis, Michigan State (24.9)
3. Greg Brunner, Iowa (22.3)
4. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (22.1)
5. James Augustine, Illinois (21.8)
Watch out (in a good way) if he gets enough minutes: Jonathan Williams of Minnesota clocks in at 25.8.
Assists per 100 possessions (complete list)
1. Jeff Horner, Iowa (10.6)
2. Daniel Horton, Michigan (10.1)
3. Jerret Smith, Michigan (10.1)
4. Jamar Butler, Ohio State (9.9)
5. Drew Neitzel, Michigan State (9.8)
Watch out (in a good way) if he gets enough minutes: Chester Frazier of Illinois clocks in at 10.2 assists per 100 possessions.
Turnovers per 100 possessions (from worst to best--complete list)
1. Marco Killingsworth, Indiana (8.8)
2. Rico Tucker, Minnesota (8.2)
3. Courtney Sims, Michigan (6.7)
4. Jerret Smith, Michigan (6.3)
5. Korey Spates, Purdue (6.2)
Watch out (in a not so good way) if he gets enough minutes: the aforementioned Marcus White of Purdue clocks in at 14.1 TOs per 100 possessions (ye gods).
BONUS individual wrappings! Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska has posted individual numbers for Big Ten leaders on both the offensive and defensive side. You'll learn that Rico Tucker and Vincent Grier put the "fun" in "fundamentally felonious"! Plus--the admirably efficient Paul Davis has just a hint of Courtney Sims in him: his bad games aren't inefficient per se; rather, his sub par outings are characterized by total silence. Lastly--two words: Matt Kiefer. When did he become Je'Kel Foster? Make haste!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Minnesota 64-62 in Minneapolis last night. The Gophers went almost 16 minutes without a field goal in the first half and consequently the Badgers led 25-6. But Bo Ryan's team then defined "uncharacteristic" by coughing up seven TOs in just three minutes heading into halftime. UW came into this game doing a superb job of holding on to the ball--but they gave the rock away 22 times last night in a 75 possession game. (Kammron Taylor alone had seven TOs.) It kept the Gophers in the game on a night when they couldn't sink any shots. "We showed great character," Vincent Grier said afterward. "Even though it's a loss, it's something to build on. We definitely played great defense." Yes, but it wasn't enough and Minnesota guard Moe Hargrow knew it: "I kind of hate moral victories." Ryan said he was "proud" of how his young team performed in a road game on only one day of rest. Freshman Joe Krabbenhoft looked notably poised sinking two clutch free throws for UW in the final minute. Grier had a 17-11 dub-dub for the home team. Alando Tucker joined that club with a 22-10 effort for Wisconsin but needed 23 FGAs to do it and was 0-of-6 at the line in a tight game. (Watch this. Tucker is officially verging on hack-a-dude territory. Ryan says Tucker is "frustrated on not being able to help the team by making free throws.") Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Jim Souhan says the Gophers look "erratic on the perimeter and shallow inside." For more, see the spanking good blogger recaps here and here from Gopher Hoops and Golden Gopher Hoops, respectively. (Box score.)
Michigan State plays Indiana tonight in East Lansing (ESPN, 7 ET). The Hoosiers will be without the services of big man D.J. White, who injured his left foot in Saturday's win against Ohio State and is out indefinitely. At cbs.sportsline this morning, Gregg Doyel says losing White "will knock the Hoosiers from the short list of serious NCAA championship contenders." Indefatigable Hoosier beat writer Terry Hutchens of the Indianapolis Star ponders IU's near future without White here. As for the home team, Spartan coach Tom Izzo has this to say about his team's 0-2 start in conference: "I'm not sure many people expected us to win one or two of those games, but we expected to play a lot better than we did." Specifically, Izzo says he's unhappy with his team's performance on offense: "I don't think we're moving the ball. We looked like a team that stood around, didn't screen, wasn't very organized." (What about the much-maligned D? "Much better," by Izzo's lights.)
Purdue plays Ohio State in West Lafayette tonight. Boiler coach Matt Painter isn't happy with the way his team's been taking care of the ball: "At times, we could commit 20 turnovers against a room full of furniture."
Northwestern plays Penn State tonight in Evanston. Wildcat coach Bill Carmody says he's pleased with the play of freshman guards Sterling Williams and Craig Moore. Nittany Lion coach Ed DeChellis sounds virtually Painter-esque and says his team has to limit its turnovers: "You've got to play every possession like it's the last one."
Illinois freshman PPWS sensation Jamar Smith is profiled here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Spartan no like unbalanced scheduling....
Esteemed Wonk,
As a Spartan booster, I'm trying not to get too far down right now. But it's hard not to, and it's not primarily a function of (1) the 0-2 start in the two toughest places to play in the conference or (2) the disturbingly poor play of Mr. Ager and Mr. Davis. Rather, it's the fact that the conference schedule is so stacked against MSU's effort to make up the two games they're now down against Wisconsin in the standings.
Let's compare the two teams' respective 16-game conference schedules. They play each other twice, home and away, so we'll throw out those games. Out of the remaining 14 games, 10 of the games are the same (they both play Iowa at home, Minnesota on the road, etc.). Here are the four games each team plays that the other doesn't:
WISCONSIN
Home to Northwestern
AT Purdue
AT Penn State
Home to Minnesota
MSU
AT Illinois
Home to Purdue
Home to Michigan
AT Indiana
I think any reasonable observer would agree that this comparison gave at least a two-game advantage (AT Illinois and AT Indiana) to Wisconsin even before conference play started. And I'd rather play Northwestern or Minnesota at home than Michigan this season. Now MSU has already suffered the results of having to play Illinois on the road, but the road game against IU essentially puts them three down against Wisconsin right now. You can argue that MSU simply has to take care of business in Bloomington, but that's a (large) burden they face that Wisconsin won't have to face this year.
I understand that because the NCAA Tournament is king these days (which has generally been a good thing for MSU), there's no chance the league will go to a full round-robin, 20-game schedule (since this would result in Big Ten teams knocking each other's records down even more than they do now). I just don't see how we can go on, though, awarding conference championships to teams that are based to a large degree on random scheduling differences. Adding a 12th team would at least result in balanced schedules within two six-team divisions, but the addition of a school to the conference doesn't seem too likely in the near future.
Signed,
Down-in-spirit in Lansing
Kyle J.
Thanks, Kyle. How 'bout it, alert readers? Should the Big Ten add a 12th member? And, if so, who should it be? I await your thoughts. ¶ 6:18 AM
Scoring efficiency: PPWS (points per weighted shot--more about this stat)
PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))
Through January 10 (12+ min. per game)
1. Suhr, IN 1.62
2. Foster, OSU 1.61
3. Shamala, MN 1.57
4. Smith, IL 1.45
5. Strickland, IN 1.41
6. Sims, MI 1.37
7. Vaden, IN 1.35
8. Vukusic, NU 1.34
9. Abram, MI 1.32
10. Davis, MSU 1.32
11. Butler, OSU 1.31
12. Brown, MI 1.31
13. Lewis, OSU 1.31
14. Augustine, IL 1.31
15. Killingsworth, IN 1.27
16. Doyle, NU 1.26
17. Cornley, PSU 1.23
18. Sullinger, OSU 1.22
19. Neitzel, MSU 1.22
20. Brown, MSU 1.22
21. Flowers, WI 1.21
22. Luber, PSU 1.20
23. Horton, MI 1.20
24. Dials, OSU 1.20
25. Butch, WI 1.20
26. Nixon, WI 1.19
27. Wilmont, IN 1.18
28. Taylor, WI 1.18
29. Kiefer, PUR 1.18
30. Ager, MSU 1.16
31. Moore, NU 1.16
32. Chappell, WI 1.15
33. Hansen, IA 1.15
34. Smith, MI 1.14
35. Hachad, NU 1.12
36. Jackson, PSU 1.11
37. Landry, WI 1.10
38. Hargrow, MN 1.10
39. McBride, IL 1.10
40. Monroe, IN 1.10
41. Mayes, OSU 1.10
42. Henderson, IA 1.09
43. Lutz, PUR 1.09
44. Walker, PSU 1.09
45. Tollackson, MN 1.08
46. Grier, MN 1.07
47. Hunter, MI 1.07
48. Hassell, PSU 1.07
49. Haluska, IA 1.07
50. Randle, IL 1.07
51. Harris, MI 1.07
52. Parker, PSU 1.06
53. D. Coleman, MN 1.04
54. Dillon, PUR 1.03
55. Boone, MN 1.02
56. Calloway, IN 1.02
57. Pruitt, IL 1.02
58. Green, PUR 1.02
59. Brunner, IA 1.01
60. Brown, IL 1.01
61. Bogetic, PSU 0.99
62. Claxton, PSU 0.99
63. Gray, MSU 0.99
64. Horner, IA 0.98
65. Tucker, WI 0.96
66. Spates, PUR 0.96
67. Carter, IL 0.96
68. Thomas, IA 0.96
69. Stamper, MN 0.95
70. Arnold, IL 0.94
71. Scott, NU 0.92
72. Cote, NU 0.90
73. R. Coleman, MI 0.89
74. Sylvester, OSU 0.89
75. Williams, NU 0.88
76. Freeman, IA 0.88
77. Tucker, MN 0.87
78. Walton, MSU 0.72
79. Jenkins, NU 0.71
80. Thompson, IA 0.66 ¶ 5:00 AM
PPWS = PTS/(FGA + (0.475 x FTA))
Through January 10 (12+ min. per game)
1. Suhr, IN 1.62
2. Foster, OSU 1.61
3. Shamala, MN 1.57
4. Smith, IL 1.45
5. Strickland, IN 1.41
6. Sims, MI 1.37
7. Vaden, IN 1.35
8. Vukusic, NU 1.34
9. Abram, MI 1.32
10. Davis, MSU 1.32
11. Butler, OSU 1.31
12. Brown, MI 1.31
13. Lewis, OSU 1.31
14. Augustine, IL 1.31
15. Killingsworth, IN 1.27
16. Doyle, NU 1.26
17. Cornley, PSU 1.23
18. Sullinger, OSU 1.22
19. Neitzel, MSU 1.22
20. Brown, MSU 1.22
21. Flowers, WI 1.21
22. Luber, PSU 1.20
23. Horton, MI 1.20
24. Dials, OSU 1.20
25. Butch, WI 1.20
26. Nixon, WI 1.19
27. Wilmont, IN 1.18
28. Taylor, WI 1.18
29. Kiefer, PUR 1.18
30. Ager, MSU 1.16
31. Moore, NU 1.16
32. Chappell, WI 1.15
33. Hansen, IA 1.15
34. Smith, MI 1.14
35. Hachad, NU 1.12
36. Jackson, PSU 1.11
37. Landry, WI 1.10
38. Hargrow, MN 1.10
39. McBride, IL 1.10
40. Monroe, IN 1.10
41. Mayes, OSU 1.10
42. Henderson, IA 1.09
43. Lutz, PUR 1.09
44. Walker, PSU 1.09
45. Tollackson, MN 1.08
46. Grier, MN 1.07
47. Hunter, MI 1.07
48. Hassell, PSU 1.07
49. Haluska, IA 1.07
50. Randle, IL 1.07
51. Harris, MI 1.07
52. Parker, PSU 1.06
53. D. Coleman, MN 1.04
54. Dillon, PUR 1.03
55. Boone, MN 1.02
56. Calloway, IN 1.02
57. Pruitt, IL 1.02
58. Green, PUR 1.02
59. Brunner, IA 1.01
60. Brown, IL 1.01
61. Bogetic, PSU 0.99
62. Claxton, PSU 0.99
63. Gray, MSU 0.99
64. Horner, IA 0.98
65. Tucker, WI 0.96
66. Spates, PUR 0.96
67. Carter, IL 0.96
68. Thomas, IA 0.96
69. Stamper, MN 0.95
70. Arnold, IL 0.94
71. Scott, NU 0.92
72. Cote, NU 0.90
73. R. Coleman, MI 0.89
74. Sylvester, OSU 0.89
75. Williams, NU 0.88
76. Freeman, IA 0.88
77. Tucker, MN 0.87
78. Walton, MSU 0.72
79. Jenkins, NU 0.71
80. Thompson, IA 0.66 ¶ 5:00 AM
Rebounding pct. (more about this stat)
Reb. pct. = player rebounds/(total rebounds x (player minutes/total minutes))
Through January 10 (12+ min. per game)
1. Brown, MI 20.6%
2. Davis, MSU 19.3%
3. Gray, MSU 17.5%
4. Sims, MI 17.4%
5. Augustine, IL 17.3%
6. Brunner, IA 17.1%
7. Bogetic, PSU 16.9%
8. Pruitt, IL 16.1%
9. Dials, OSU 16.0%
10. Killingsworth, IN 16.0%
11. Sullinger, OSU 16.0%
12. Thomas, IA 15.6%
13. Stamper, MN 15.4%
14. Kiefer, PUR 15.2%
15. Carter, IL 15.0%
16. Butch, WI 14.7%
17. Tollackson, MN 14.0%
18. Hunter, MI 13.1%
19. Chappell, WI 12.7%
20. Arnold, IL 12.7%
21. Hachad, NU 12.5%
22. Claxton, PSU 12.3%
23. Wilmont, IN 12.2%
24. Randle, IL 11.7%
25. Parker, PSU 11.7%
26. Hansen, IA 11.6%
27. R. Coleman, MI 11.3%
28. Landry, WI 11.2%
29. Hassell, PSU 11.2%
30. Cornley, PSU 10.3%
31. Scott, NU 10.0%
32. Grier, MN 9.9%
33. Thompson, IA 9.8%
34. D. Coleman, MN 9.6%
35. Lewis, OSU 9.4%
36. Tucker, WI 9.2%
37. Cote, NU 9.2%
38. Green, PUR 9.0%
39. Henderson, IA 8.7%
40. Doyle, NU 8.7%
41. Foster, OSU 8.4%
42. Shamala, MN 8.3%
43. Vaden, IN 8.2%
44. Williams, NU 8.1%
45. Sylvester, OSU 7.9%
46. Jackson, PSU 7.8%
47. Flowers, WI 7.7%
48. Ager, MSU 7.7%
49. Monroe, IN 7.6%
50. Harris, MI 7.6%
51. Suhr, IN 7.6%
52. Hargrow, MN 7.5%
53. Haluska, IA 7.4%
54. Abram, MI 7.1%
55. Jenkins, NU 7.0%
56. Calloway, IN 6.4%
57. Strickland, IN 6.4%
58. Brown, MSU 6.3%
59. Vukusic, NU 6.2%
60. Butler, OSU 6.1%
61. Dillon, PUR 5.9%
62. Spates, PUR 5.9%
63. Moore, NU 5.9%
64. Horner, IA 5.7%
65. Boone, MN 5.5%
66. Taylor, WI 5.5%
67. Smith, IL 5.4%
68. Tucker, MN 5.3%
69. Brown, IL 5.0%
70. Horton, MI 5.0%
71. Walker, PSU 4.9%
72. Walton, MSU 4.8%
73. Lutz, PUR 4.7%
74. Luber, PSU 4.5%
75. Freeman, IA 4.5%
76. McBride, IL 4.3%
77. Smith, MI 4.2%
78. Neitzel, MSU 3.9%
79. Mayes, OSU 3.7%
80. Nixon, WI 3.6%
¶ 4:50 AM
Reb. pct. = player rebounds/(total rebounds x (player minutes/total minutes))
Through January 10 (12+ min. per game)
1. Brown, MI 20.6%
2. Davis, MSU 19.3%
3. Gray, MSU 17.5%
4. Sims, MI 17.4%
5. Augustine, IL 17.3%
6. Brunner, IA 17.1%
7. Bogetic, PSU 16.9%
8. Pruitt, IL 16.1%
9. Dials, OSU 16.0%
10. Killingsworth, IN 16.0%
11. Sullinger, OSU 16.0%
12. Thomas, IA 15.6%
13. Stamper, MN 15.4%
14. Kiefer, PUR 15.2%
15. Carter, IL 15.0%
16. Butch, WI 14.7%
17. Tollackson, MN 14.0%
18. Hunter, MI 13.1%
19. Chappell, WI 12.7%
20. Arnold, IL 12.7%
21. Hachad, NU 12.5%
22. Claxton, PSU 12.3%
23. Wilmont, IN 12.2%
24. Randle, IL 11.7%
25. Parker, PSU 11.7%
26. Hansen, IA 11.6%
27. R. Coleman, MI 11.3%
28. Landry, WI 11.2%
29. Hassell, PSU 11.2%
30. Cornley, PSU 10.3%
31. Scott, NU 10.0%
32. Grier, MN 9.9%
33. Thompson, IA 9.8%
34. D. Coleman, MN 9.6%
35. Lewis, OSU 9.4%
36. Tucker, WI 9.2%
37. Cote, NU 9.2%
38. Green, PUR 9.0%
39. Henderson, IA 8.7%
40. Doyle, NU 8.7%
41. Foster, OSU 8.4%
42. Shamala, MN 8.3%
43. Vaden, IN 8.2%
44. Williams, NU 8.1%
45. Sylvester, OSU 7.9%
46. Jackson, PSU 7.8%
47. Flowers, WI 7.7%
48. Ager, MSU 7.7%
49. Monroe, IN 7.6%
50. Harris, MI 7.6%
51. Suhr, IN 7.6%
52. Hargrow, MN 7.5%
53. Haluska, IA 7.4%
54. Abram, MI 7.1%
55. Jenkins, NU 7.0%
56. Calloway, IN 6.4%
57. Strickland, IN 6.4%
58. Brown, MSU 6.3%
59. Vukusic, NU 6.2%
60. Butler, OSU 6.1%
61. Dillon, PUR 5.9%
62. Spates, PUR 5.9%
63. Moore, NU 5.9%
64. Horner, IA 5.7%
65. Boone, MN 5.5%
66. Taylor, WI 5.5%
67. Smith, IL 5.4%
68. Tucker, MN 5.3%
69. Brown, IL 5.0%
70. Horton, MI 5.0%
71. Walker, PSU 4.9%
72. Walton, MSU 4.8%
73. Lutz, PUR 4.7%
74. Luber, PSU 4.5%
75. Freeman, IA 4.5%
76. McBride, IL 4.3%
77. Smith, MI 4.2%
78. Neitzel, MSU 3.9%
79. Mayes, OSU 3.7%
80. Nixon, WI 3.6%
¶ 4:50 AM
Assists per 100 possessions
(Assists/individual possessions) x 100
Through January 10 (12+ min. per game)
1. Horner, IA 10.6
2. Horton, MI 10.1
3. Smith, MI 10.1
4. Butler, OSU 9.9
5. Neitzel, MSU 9.8
6. Doyle, NU 9.8
7. Brown, IL 9.6
8. Luber, PSU 9.3
9. Walker, PSU 8.7
10. Walton, MSU 8.4
11. Boone, MN 8.4
12. Vaden, IN 8.2
13. Mayes, OSU 8.2
14. Calloway, IN 7.8
15. Monroe, IN 7.7
16. Tucker, MN 7.2
17. Moore, NU 7.1
18. Hargrow, MN 6.9
19. Jenkins, NU 6.7
20. Freeman, IA 6.6
21. Sylvester, OSU 6.4
22. Chappell, WI 6.0
23. Harris, MI 6.0
24. Jackson, PSU 5.7
25. Scott, NU 5.5
26. Foster, OSU 5.4
27. Ager, MSU 5.2
28. Williams, NU 5.2
29. Flowers, WI 5.2
30. Landry, WI 5.1
31. McBride, IL 5.0
32. Dillon, PUR 4.8
33. Nixon, WI 4.7
34. Kiefer, PUR 4.6
35. Smith, IL 4.5
36. Haluska, IA 4.5
37. Killingsworth, IN 4.5
38. Brown, MSU 4.5
39. Taylor, WI 4.4
40. Parker, PSU 4.4
41. Grier, MN 4.3
42. Butch, WI 4.2
43. Sullinger, OSU 4.1
44. Strickland, IN 3.9
45. Hachad, NU 3.9
46. Henderson, IA 3.8
47. Spates, PUR 3.8
48. Suhr, IN 3.6
49. Tollackson, MN 3.6
50. Augustine, IL 3.5
51. Randle, IL 3.5
52. Brunner, IA 3.5
53. Green, PUR 3.5
54. Cote, NU 3.4
55. Stamper, MN 3.3
56. Cornley, PSU 3.2
57. Davis, MSU 3.2
58. Lewis, OSU 3.1
59. Bogetic, PSU 2.9
60. Claxton, PSU 2.9
61. Lutz, PUR 2.8
62. Tucker, WI 2.7
63. Abram, MI 2.5
64. Brown, MI 2.5
65. Carter, IL 2.5
66. Vukusic, NU 2.4
67. Thompson, IA 2.3
68. Shamala, MN 2.2
69. Gray, MSU 2.0
70. Wilmont, IN 2.0
71. Hunter, MI 2.0
72. R. Coleman, MI 1.9
73. Sims, MI 1.6
74. Hassell, PSU 1.5
75. D. Coleman, MN 1.4
76. Thomas, IA 1.3
77. Dials, OSU 1.1
78. Hansen, IA 1.0
79. Pruitt, IL 0.9
80. Arnold, IL 0.3 ¶ 4:40 AM
(Assists/individual possessions) x 100
Through January 10 (12+ min. per game)
1. Horner, IA 10.6
2. Horton, MI 10.1
3. Smith, MI 10.1
4. Butler, OSU 9.9
5. Neitzel, MSU 9.8
6. Doyle, NU 9.8
7. Brown, IL 9.6
8. Luber, PSU 9.3
9. Walker, PSU 8.7
10. Walton, MSU 8.4
11. Boone, MN 8.4
12. Vaden, IN 8.2
13. Mayes, OSU 8.2
14. Calloway, IN 7.8
15. Monroe, IN 7.7
16. Tucker, MN 7.2
17. Moore, NU 7.1
18. Hargrow, MN 6.9
19. Jenkins, NU 6.7
20. Freeman, IA 6.6
21. Sylvester, OSU 6.4
22. Chappell, WI 6.0
23. Harris, MI 6.0
24. Jackson, PSU 5.7
25. Scott, NU 5.5
26. Foster, OSU 5.4
27. Ager, MSU 5.2
28. Williams, NU 5.2
29. Flowers, WI 5.2
30. Landry, WI 5.1
31. McBride, IL 5.0
32. Dillon, PUR 4.8
33. Nixon, WI 4.7
34. Kiefer, PUR 4.6
35. Smith, IL 4.5
36. Haluska, IA 4.5
37. Killingsworth, IN 4.5
38. Brown, MSU 4.5
39. Taylor, WI 4.4
40. Parker, PSU 4.4
41. Grier, MN 4.3
42. Butch, WI 4.2
43. Sullinger, OSU 4.1
44. Strickland, IN 3.9
45. Hachad, NU 3.9
46. Henderson, IA 3.8
47. Spates, PUR 3.8
48. Suhr, IN 3.6
49. Tollackson, MN 3.6
50. Augustine, IL 3.5
51. Randle, IL 3.5
52. Brunner, IA 3.5
53. Green, PUR 3.5
54. Cote, NU 3.4
55. Stamper, MN 3.3
56. Cornley, PSU 3.2
57. Davis, MSU 3.2
58. Lewis, OSU 3.1
59. Bogetic, PSU 2.9
60. Claxton, PSU 2.9
61. Lutz, PUR 2.8
62. Tucker, WI 2.7
63. Abram, MI 2.5
64. Brown, MI 2.5
65. Carter, IL 2.5
66. Vukusic, NU 2.4
67. Thompson, IA 2.3
68. Shamala, MN 2.2
69. Gray, MSU 2.0
70. Wilmont, IN 2.0
71. Hunter, MI 2.0
72. R. Coleman, MI 1.9
73. Sims, MI 1.6
74. Hassell, PSU 1.5
75. D. Coleman, MN 1.4
76. Thomas, IA 1.3
77. Dials, OSU 1.1
78. Hansen, IA 1.0
79. Pruitt, IL 0.9
80. Arnold, IL 0.3 ¶ 4:40 AM
Turnovers per 100 possessions
(Individual TOs/individual possessions) x 100
Through January 10 (from worst to best--12+ min. per game)
1. Killingsworth, IN 8.8
2. Tucker, MN 8.2
3. Sims, MI 6.7
4. Smith, MI 6.3
5. Spates, PUR 6.2
6. Hachad, NU 6.1
7. Calloway, IN 6.0
8. Lutz, PUR 6.0
9. Freeman, IA 6.0
10. Vaden, IN 5.9
11. Hargrow, MN 5.8
12. Hassell, PSU 5.8
13. Hunter, MI 5.7
14. Grier, MN 5.6
15. Doyle, NU 5.6
16. Green, PUR 5.5
17. Brown, IL 5.5
18. Horton, MI 5.3
19. Henderson, IA 5.3
20. Dillon, PUR 5.2
21. Luber, PSU 5.1
22. Landry, WI 5.1
23. Lewis, OSU 5.0
24. Parker, PSU 5.0
25. Claxton, PSU 4.9
26. Taylor, WI 4.9
27. Augustine, IL 4.8
28. Tollackson, MN 4.7
29. Brunner, IA 4.7
30. Boone, MN 4.5
31. Ager, MSU 4.5
32. Foster, OSU 4.4
33. Sullinger, OSU 4.4
34. Mayes, OSU 4.4
35. Horner, IA 4.4
36. Randle, IL 4.3
37. Smith, IL 4.3
38. Bogetic, PSU 4.3
39. Hansen, IA 4.3
40. Thomas, IA 4.2
41. Davis, MSU 4.1
42. Gray, MSU 4.1
43. Dials, OSU 4.1
44. Walton, MSU 4.0
45. Brown, MSU 3.8
46. Brown, MI 3.8
47. Neitzel, MSU 3.8
48. Cote, NU 3.7
49. Jenkins, NU 3.7
50. Monroe, IN 3.7
51. Cornley, PSU 3.6
52. Tucker, WI 3.6
53. Thompson, IA 3.6
54. Sylvester, OSU 3.5
55. Abram, MI 3.4
56. Jackson, PSU 3.4
57. Pruitt, IL 3.4
58. Arnold, IL 3.3
59. Kiefer, PUR 3.3
60. Butch, WI 3.3
61. Stamper, MN 3.3
62. Flowers, WI 3.3
63. Chappell, WI 3.2
64. Butler, OSU 3.1
65. Carter, IL 3.1
66. Vukusic, NU 3.0
67. Haluska, IA 2.9
68. McBride, IL 2.8
69. Williams, NU 2.8
70. Scott, NU 2.7
71. Harris, MI 2.6
72. Walker, PSU 2.6
73. D. Coleman, MN 2.5
74. Moore, NU 2.3
75. R. Coleman, MI 2.3
76. Suhr, IN 2.1
77. Strickland, IN 2.1
78. Shamala, MN 1.9
79. Nixon, WI 1.6
80. Wilmont, IN 0.9
¶ 4:30 AM
(Individual TOs/individual possessions) x 100
Through January 10 (from worst to best--12+ min. per game)
1. Killingsworth, IN 8.8
2. Tucker, MN 8.2
3. Sims, MI 6.7
4. Smith, MI 6.3
5. Spates, PUR 6.2
6. Hachad, NU 6.1
7. Calloway, IN 6.0
8. Lutz, PUR 6.0
9. Freeman, IA 6.0
10. Vaden, IN 5.9
11. Hargrow, MN 5.8
12. Hassell, PSU 5.8
13. Hunter, MI 5.7
14. Grier, MN 5.6
15. Doyle, NU 5.6
16. Green, PUR 5.5
17. Brown, IL 5.5
18. Horton, MI 5.3
19. Henderson, IA 5.3
20. Dillon, PUR 5.2
21. Luber, PSU 5.1
22. Landry, WI 5.1
23. Lewis, OSU 5.0
24. Parker, PSU 5.0
25. Claxton, PSU 4.9
26. Taylor, WI 4.9
27. Augustine, IL 4.8
28. Tollackson, MN 4.7
29. Brunner, IA 4.7
30. Boone, MN 4.5
31. Ager, MSU 4.5
32. Foster, OSU 4.4
33. Sullinger, OSU 4.4
34. Mayes, OSU 4.4
35. Horner, IA 4.4
36. Randle, IL 4.3
37. Smith, IL 4.3
38. Bogetic, PSU 4.3
39. Hansen, IA 4.3
40. Thomas, IA 4.2
41. Davis, MSU 4.1
42. Gray, MSU 4.1
43. Dials, OSU 4.1
44. Walton, MSU 4.0
45. Brown, MSU 3.8
46. Brown, MI 3.8
47. Neitzel, MSU 3.8
48. Cote, NU 3.7
49. Jenkins, NU 3.7
50. Monroe, IN 3.7
51. Cornley, PSU 3.6
52. Tucker, WI 3.6
53. Thompson, IA 3.6
54. Sylvester, OSU 3.5
55. Abram, MI 3.4
56. Jackson, PSU 3.4
57. Pruitt, IL 3.4
58. Arnold, IL 3.3
59. Kiefer, PUR 3.3
60. Butch, WI 3.3
61. Stamper, MN 3.3
62. Flowers, WI 3.3
63. Chappell, WI 3.2
64. Butler, OSU 3.1
65. Carter, IL 3.1
66. Vukusic, NU 3.0
67. Haluska, IA 2.9
68. McBride, IL 2.8
69. Williams, NU 2.8
70. Scott, NU 2.7
71. Harris, MI 2.6
72. Walker, PSU 2.6
73. D. Coleman, MN 2.5
74. Moore, NU 2.3
75. R. Coleman, MI 2.3
76. Suhr, IN 2.1
77. Strickland, IN 2.1
78. Shamala, MN 1.9
79. Nixon, WI 1.6
80. Wilmont, IN 0.9
¶ 4:30 AM
Tuesday, January 10, 2006
Cream and Crimson but no White
Indiana big man D.J. White suffered a broken bone in his left foot during Saturday's game against Ohio State and will be out indefinitely. White missed the Hoosiers' first seven games while a different bone in the same foot healed after an injury suffered in IU's first exhibition on November 4. If White doesn't play again this season, he'll be eligible for a medical redshirt and can return next year as a sophomore.
IU loses, of course, the minutes and fouls that White could give to spell Marco Killingsworth--no small matter. ("When Marco fouled out against Ball State, D.J. was able to step in and we didn't miss a beat," notes Mike Davis.) They also lose interior D: this year the taller, rangier White was about twice as likely to block a shot in a given minute of floor time than is Killingsworth. (Ah, per-minute stats: as good as tempo-free stats, so long as you're doing teammate-to-teammate comparisons only.)
So how much of a difference will we see in Indiana's performance without White? Let's look first at how much of a difference we've seen. This season the Hoosiers played seven games without White (Nicholls State, Florida A&M, Western Illinois, Duke, Eastern Michigan, Indiana State, and Kentucky), followed by five with him (Charlotte, Butler, Ball State, Michigan, and Ohio State). Here's how the numbers stack up:
Indiana without White
Points per possession (PPP): 1.15
Effective FG pct.: 62.2
Offensive reb. pct.: 29.0
Turnover pct.: 21.5
Opp. PPP: 0.91
Opp. eFG pct.: 48.4
Defensive reb. pct.: 74.1
Opp. TO pct.: 24.4
Indiana with White
Points per possession (PPP): 1.14
Effective FG pct.: 60.9
Offensive reb. pct.: 31.6
Turnover pct.: 22.7
Opp. PPP: 0.93
Opp. eFG pct.: 42.1
Defensive reb. pct.: 66.0
Opp. TO pct.: 19.1
Note that the numbers here are skewed rather dramatically by IU's first three games, stat-stuffing blowouts against Nicholls State, Florida A&M, and Western Illinois--blowouts that White happened to miss out on. (So, no, I wouldn't say, for example, that Indiana is really so markedly less proficient at creating opponent TOs with White in action, as these numbers would seem to indicate.)
Even so, the numbers here suggest that in a couple of areas IU's performance actually improved, even against much tougher competition, with White available. Those two areas, perhaps not surprisingly, are field goal defense and offensive rebounding. A shot blocker helps your FG defense tremendously--this much we know and the numbers bear this out.
Another thing we know is that you'll get more offensive boards with two big men on the floor than you will with one. Alas, that's not to be and Hoosier fans are now likely to see their team become a true POT: perimeter oriented team. Offensive rebounds are nice, of course, but last year's Illinois team, for one, demonstrated how a POT can go 37-2 while ranking only sixth in the conference in oreb pct.: by hitting your shots and not turning the ball over.
Bottom line: without D.J. White, Indiana will (continue to) struggle on the offensive boards and will likely give their opponents more made FGs. On the plus side, the Hoosiers will turn the ball over less--White's 5.7 TOs per 100 possessions, while not as egregious as Killingsworth's league-worst 8.8, puts him among the most TO-happy 20 percent of Big Ten players. And that's precisely the point: IU will have to make up for this loss by taking care of the ball, hitting their shots (for they're unlikely to get the rebound), and outscoring their suddenly more productive opponents.
We'll see how Indiana does in all of the above categories right away. They face Michigan State tomorrow night in East Lansing.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Minnesota plays Wisconsin tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN, 7 ET). Paging Thomas Hardy: Return-of-the-native-themed profiles of Badger point guard and Minneapolis native Kammron Taylor here, here, here, and here. (Wow. This frequent reader spies an unprecedented level of meme ubiquity!) Dueling blogger game previews here and here, courtesy of Gopher Hoops (despondently predicting a narrow Badger win) and Golden Gopher Hoops (pugnaciously forecasting a narrow Gopher triumph).
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody says, despite his 2-0 team being in a first-place tie in the conference race, he hasn't ordered up those "2006 Big Ten Champions" hats just yet: "It's not a two-game season this year, is it?"
Ohio State coach Thad Matta says winning on the road requires playing at a higher level: "When you go on the road, I want our guys to be in the mindset of knowing with the Big Ten the way it is, you've got to be eight points better than your opponent on a given night."
Purdue coach Matt Painter faces the rest of the year without 80 percent of his projected starting lineup: Tarrance Crump was suspended before the start of the season; and David Teague, Carl Landry, and Nate Minnoy are all out for the year with knee injuries. So what do you do now, coach? "You keep plugging away and hope your bad luck has run out."
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says, despite seeing just 20 points total from Mo Ager in the first two Big Ten games, he still has faith in his senior guard: "We still have one of the best 2-guards in the country in Maurice Ager." Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times says: "For all the preseason hype about the Spartans possibly reaching their second straight Final Four and fifth in eight years, Izzo's team has issues."
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says he needs more production from his bigs: "James (Augustine) has really struggled the first two Big Ten games. I'm sure he's disappointed. We're disappointed. We have to keep him out of foul trouble. Marcus Arnold has been disappointing the last few games. He played well for a stretch but now it's almost like he has to adjust to Big Ten basketball. Hopefully he'll come around in this next stretch."
BONUS Iowa-Illinois backfill! Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska has posted his "tale of the tape" recap of Saturday's Hawkeye win over the Illini. Using a +/- system similar to that employed by the good people at 82 Games, Ryan is tracking Iowa's offensive and defensive efficiency alongside which five Hawks are in the game on each possession. The results are here: in the Illinois game, at least, Erek Hansen appears to have helped the Iowa D (which we know going in he does) much more than he hurt its offense (which we know going in he does). Indispensable stuff, as it always is from Hawkeye Hoops. Remember, folks: there's analysis--and then there's Ryanalysis!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Thanks for the kind words, Wonk!...Shut up, Wonk!
Yesterday I pointed out that Wisconsin doesn't play at Illinois or Indiana this season and that their visits to Michigan State and Iowa don't occur until the last two games of the year. So the Badgers' next 12 games would thus appear to be as welcoming as any 12 Big Ten contests could reasonably be--up to and including an "unlikely" chance that UW could win all 12. (Thus the phrase "run that table": emphasis on the words unlikely and that table--those 12 games--and not, repeat not, as I saw in some subsequent chat room comments forwarded my way yesterday, the table.) Wonk's readers respond!
Hey, Wonk-o,
Let me be the first Madisonian to chastise your Wonkness for a premature crowning of Bo's Bunch as the Big Ten's best (or luckiest as the schedule would have it).
Merely your mention of "running that table" this early in the season gives me visions of choking on Gopher hors d'oeuvres up in the Barn on Tuesday night before the entree even arrives. Keep in mind that home cookin' has led to the 12 Badger wins this year, while both attempts to leave the Kohl Center have resulted in roadkill.
These Badger pups (only one returning starter) can hardly be expected to consistently dodge traffic on road to the Big Ten championship. While I believe Bo can get it done (see 2001-02), I would prefer to fly under the radar a while longer.
Alex H.
Madison, WI
Wow, way to mix those metaphors, Alex! Anyway, no hex intended, believe me. I merely noted that Wisconsin has a sweet schedule: no Champaign, no Bloomington. What they do with that schedule is up to Bo and the boys. ¶ 6:35 AM
Indiana big man D.J. White suffered a broken bone in his left foot during Saturday's game against Ohio State and will be out indefinitely. White missed the Hoosiers' first seven games while a different bone in the same foot healed after an injury suffered in IU's first exhibition on November 4. If White doesn't play again this season, he'll be eligible for a medical redshirt and can return next year as a sophomore.
IU loses, of course, the minutes and fouls that White could give to spell Marco Killingsworth--no small matter. ("When Marco fouled out against Ball State, D.J. was able to step in and we didn't miss a beat," notes Mike Davis.) They also lose interior D: this year the taller, rangier White was about twice as likely to block a shot in a given minute of floor time than is Killingsworth. (Ah, per-minute stats: as good as tempo-free stats, so long as you're doing teammate-to-teammate comparisons only.)
So how much of a difference will we see in Indiana's performance without White? Let's look first at how much of a difference we've seen. This season the Hoosiers played seven games without White (Nicholls State, Florida A&M, Western Illinois, Duke, Eastern Michigan, Indiana State, and Kentucky), followed by five with him (Charlotte, Butler, Ball State, Michigan, and Ohio State). Here's how the numbers stack up:
Indiana without White
Points per possession (PPP): 1.15
Effective FG pct.: 62.2
Offensive reb. pct.: 29.0
Turnover pct.: 21.5
Opp. PPP: 0.91
Opp. eFG pct.: 48.4
Defensive reb. pct.: 74.1
Opp. TO pct.: 24.4
Indiana with White
Points per possession (PPP): 1.14
Effective FG pct.: 60.9
Offensive reb. pct.: 31.6
Turnover pct.: 22.7
Opp. PPP: 0.93
Opp. eFG pct.: 42.1
Defensive reb. pct.: 66.0
Opp. TO pct.: 19.1
Note that the numbers here are skewed rather dramatically by IU's first three games, stat-stuffing blowouts against Nicholls State, Florida A&M, and Western Illinois--blowouts that White happened to miss out on. (So, no, I wouldn't say, for example, that Indiana is really so markedly less proficient at creating opponent TOs with White in action, as these numbers would seem to indicate.)
Even so, the numbers here suggest that in a couple of areas IU's performance actually improved, even against much tougher competition, with White available. Those two areas, perhaps not surprisingly, are field goal defense and offensive rebounding. A shot blocker helps your FG defense tremendously--this much we know and the numbers bear this out.
Another thing we know is that you'll get more offensive boards with two big men on the floor than you will with one. Alas, that's not to be and Hoosier fans are now likely to see their team become a true POT: perimeter oriented team. Offensive rebounds are nice, of course, but last year's Illinois team, for one, demonstrated how a POT can go 37-2 while ranking only sixth in the conference in oreb pct.: by hitting your shots and not turning the ball over.
Bottom line: without D.J. White, Indiana will (continue to) struggle on the offensive boards and will likely give their opponents more made FGs. On the plus side, the Hoosiers will turn the ball over less--White's 5.7 TOs per 100 possessions, while not as egregious as Killingsworth's league-worst 8.8, puts him among the most TO-happy 20 percent of Big Ten players. And that's precisely the point: IU will have to make up for this loss by taking care of the ball, hitting their shots (for they're unlikely to get the rebound), and outscoring their suddenly more productive opponents.
We'll see how Indiana does in all of the above categories right away. They face Michigan State tomorrow night in East Lansing.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Minnesota plays Wisconsin tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN, 7 ET). Paging Thomas Hardy: Return-of-the-native-themed profiles of Badger point guard and Minneapolis native Kammron Taylor here, here, here, and here. (Wow. This frequent reader spies an unprecedented level of meme ubiquity!) Dueling blogger game previews here and here, courtesy of Gopher Hoops (despondently predicting a narrow Badger win) and Golden Gopher Hoops (pugnaciously forecasting a narrow Gopher triumph).
Northwestern coach Bill Carmody says, despite his 2-0 team being in a first-place tie in the conference race, he hasn't ordered up those "2006 Big Ten Champions" hats just yet: "It's not a two-game season this year, is it?"
Ohio State coach Thad Matta says winning on the road requires playing at a higher level: "When you go on the road, I want our guys to be in the mindset of knowing with the Big Ten the way it is, you've got to be eight points better than your opponent on a given night."
Purdue coach Matt Painter faces the rest of the year without 80 percent of his projected starting lineup: Tarrance Crump was suspended before the start of the season; and David Teague, Carl Landry, and Nate Minnoy are all out for the year with knee injuries. So what do you do now, coach? "You keep plugging away and hope your bad luck has run out."
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says, despite seeing just 20 points total from Mo Ager in the first two Big Ten games, he still has faith in his senior guard: "We still have one of the best 2-guards in the country in Maurice Ager." Herb Gould of the Chicago Sun-Times says: "For all the preseason hype about the Spartans possibly reaching their second straight Final Four and fifth in eight years, Izzo's team has issues."
Illinois coach Bruce Weber says he needs more production from his bigs: "James (Augustine) has really struggled the first two Big Ten games. I'm sure he's disappointed. We're disappointed. We have to keep him out of foul trouble. Marcus Arnold has been disappointing the last few games. He played well for a stretch but now it's almost like he has to adjust to Big Ten basketball. Hopefully he'll come around in this next stretch."
BONUS Iowa-Illinois backfill! Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska has posted his "tale of the tape" recap of Saturday's Hawkeye win over the Illini. Using a +/- system similar to that employed by the good people at 82 Games, Ryan is tracking Iowa's offensive and defensive efficiency alongside which five Hawks are in the game on each possession. The results are here: in the Illinois game, at least, Erek Hansen appears to have helped the Iowa D (which we know going in he does) much more than he hurt its offense (which we know going in he does). Indispensable stuff, as it always is from Hawkeye Hoops. Remember, folks: there's analysis--and then there's Ryanalysis!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Thanks for the kind words, Wonk!...Shut up, Wonk!
Yesterday I pointed out that Wisconsin doesn't play at Illinois or Indiana this season and that their visits to Michigan State and Iowa don't occur until the last two games of the year. So the Badgers' next 12 games would thus appear to be as welcoming as any 12 Big Ten contests could reasonably be--up to and including an "unlikely" chance that UW could win all 12. (Thus the phrase "run that table": emphasis on the words unlikely and that table--those 12 games--and not, repeat not, as I saw in some subsequent chat room comments forwarded my way yesterday, the table.) Wonk's readers respond!
Hey, Wonk-o,
Let me be the first Madisonian to chastise your Wonkness for a premature crowning of Bo's Bunch as the Big Ten's best (or luckiest as the schedule would have it).
Merely your mention of "running that table" this early in the season gives me visions of choking on Gopher hors d'oeuvres up in the Barn on Tuesday night before the entree even arrives. Keep in mind that home cookin' has led to the 12 Badger wins this year, while both attempts to leave the Kohl Center have resulted in roadkill.
These Badger pups (only one returning starter) can hardly be expected to consistently dodge traffic on road to the Big Ten championship. While I believe Bo can get it done (see 2001-02), I would prefer to fly under the radar a while longer.
Alex H.
Madison, WI
Wow, way to mix those metaphors, Alex! Anyway, no hex intended, believe me. I merely noted that Wisconsin has a sweet schedule: no Champaign, no Bloomington. What they do with that schedule is up to Bo and the boys. ¶ 6:35 AM
Monday, January 09, 2006
First-place Badgers--get used to the sound of that.
Wisconsin beat Michigan State 82-63 in Madison yesterday. Perhaps even more surprising than the margin of victory was the pace of the game. Where Illinois beat the Spartans last Thursday night by slowing things down to a crawl (57 possessions), the historically deliberate Badgers played MSU straight up and beat them soundly in a 71-possession game. In what is fast becoming a disturbing trend for State fans, the opposing team's primary outside threat went berserk: Kammron Taylor hit 5-of-8 threes and scored 27 points. This was the second consecutive game where the Spartans allowed their opponent to hit 10-of-21 threes. Shannon Brown scored 31 points on 23 FGAs for State but Paul Davis and Mo Ager were a combined 6-for-25 and added just 13 total points. Schedule, schmedule--Michigan State would have lost to any of six Big Ten teams the way they played yesterday. Tom Izzo's take? "I think you've got to give credit to Illinois and Wisconsin. I think they played some good defense. But our two stars are not playing very well. It's no big secret. In fact, they're playing awful." (Box score.)
So here's Wisconsin, sitting pretty at 2-0. Yes, Indiana and Northwestern are 2-0 as well. But they don't have the Badgers' sweet schedule. Here are Wisconsin's next 12 games (not counting a North Dakota State game thrown in for odd measure):
at Minnesota
vs. Northwestern
at Ohio State
vs. Penn State
at Michigan
vs. Illinois
at Purdue
vs. Indiana
at Penn State
vs. Ohio State
at Northwestern
vs. Minnesota
While not likely, to be sure, it's not inconceivable that UW could run that table. For a team that's lost just one home game in-conference under Bo Ryan, the toughest game on that slate might be next Wednesday's trip to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a very good team but Value City Arena isn't exactly Cameron Indoor.
True, the Badgers end the year with visits to East Lansing and Iowa City. But they don't play in Champaign or Bloomington this year. They would appear to be lucky and good. Big Ten front-runners Wisconsin, Wonk salutes you!
Links
Columnist Todd Schulz of the Lansing State Journal wants to know: "Does [Paul Davis] ever plan to post up again? Or, will he continue to float around the perimeter as if the lane is lined with land mines?"...Izzo wonders if Davis and Mo Ager are too preoccupied with their NBA prospects--former Spartan and current Milwaukee Buck Charlie Bell spoke with Ager about that possibility after the game.
Bold historiographical innovator Michael Hunt, Wonk salutes you! The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist says yesterday felt like just another Wisconsin home game: a "19-point victory against an outfit such as Michigan State, while not exactly an everyday event, has become part of the expected Wisconsin basketball experience....The Badgers have been there, done that, again and again and again." Funny. I seem to remember a series of close UW wins--precisely what's made this rivalry so agonizing for State fans. Say, seven wins by an average of between five and six points. Oh, well. Must be me. (And Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates: "This just doesn't happen.")
Unbowed congenital optimist Jim Spadafore, Wonk salutes you! Michigan State is "still the favorite to win the Big Ten," says Spadafore in this morning's Detroit News. After all, Spadafore notes, visiting teams never win in Assembly Hall or the Kohl Center. True, but by Spadafore's lights anything that occurred in State's first two Big Ten games should have thus been labeled as meaningless in advance. Unique line of thinking, that. (Closer (much) to the mark is Spadafore's News colleague Dave Dye: "The bad start...isn't shocking because of who and where they've played, but the way it has happened is surprising.")
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated. Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy. SPECIAL note to Ohio State fans! Don't crow too loudly about that sexy league-leading Illinois-in-2005-like 1.18 points per possession, a number that reflects what hoops analysts wearing white lab coats refer to as "the Penn State effect." Take out just that one game and the Buckeyes' number drops to (a still very nice) 1.15. BONUS look-ahead! In a week or two we here at Wonk World HQ will make the jump to in-conference team stats. Mmmm, in-conference: tempo-free numbers compiled against very similar opponents. (In the admirably symmetrical Pac 10, where every team plays every other team home and away, these would be well nigh the Archimedean ideal. Go to it, yet-to-emerge Pac 10 Wonk!)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Saturday!
Iowa beat Illinois 63-48 in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes limited the Illini to one of the most anemic offensive outings of any Big Ten team in any game so far this year: 0.70 points per possession. (Ironically, one of the only instances of an offense performing at an even lower level comes to us from...Iowa. They scored just 0.65 points per possession against NC State--and won.) Great D by the Hawkeyes or bad offense by the Illini? Both! (Duh.) Iowa would have given anyone a tough time Saturday. And, the way they were shooting, Illinois would have struggled to score against a fair to middling high school JV squad. Think of the difference between last year's Illini and this year's edition as being this simple (which it's not but humor me): Bruce Weber lost Luther Head and gained Brian Randle. I've been musing of late of the tremendous advantage that accrues to any team when their best player on offense is also very good on defense--or vice versa. Last year Head was the Illini's best defender. He's not as good on D as Randle (mostly because he's four inches shorter) but add in Head's NBA-level offense and you have a tenacious defender who also (again, duh) demanded the constant attention of opposing defenses. This year's Illini, by contrast, are learning what life is like when the other team does not have to defend all five players. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Ohio State 81-79 in Bloomington. A screening Marshall Strickland was run over by defender Terence Dials in the game's closing seconds and hit a pair of free throws for the win. (See the notably honked-off recap from the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog for more.) This was a fun second half to watch. That's usually a euphemism for "not a lot of D" and that is certainly the case here: the Hoosiers scored 49 second half points on 34 possessions for a notably gaudy 1.44 points per possession after the intermission. IU trailed by 17 in the first half before getting hot from outside. Marco Killingsworth led the Hoosiers with 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Purdue 68-65 in Ann Arbor. This cannot bode well for Tommy Amaker's team: the Boilers come to Ann Arbor without 80 percent of their projected starting lineup (Crump suspended; Landry, Teague, and Minnoy out with bum knees), cough up 20 turnovers, and lose by just three? Ye gods. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat Minnesota 57-49 in Minneapolis. The Wildcats used a 1-3-1 zone and the Gophers were baffled almost literally from the opening possession. Vedran Vukusic scored 17 points and hit 3-of-5 threes, which is expected. What's not expected, however, is for NU freshman Craig Moore to score 15 on 5-of-7 shooting from outside the arc. See the spanking good recap from the Golden Gopher Hoops blog for more. So who needs offensive rebounding? The Wildcats recorded one (1) offensive board in this game, giving the Gophers a notably gaudy defensive rebound pct. of 95.8. (Box score.)
You've heard of the SI jinx
Is there a Frank Burlison jinx? Apparently.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Boiler roster depleted--but not Boiler spirits!
Hi, Wonk,
Attended the Purdue-Michigan tilt at Crisler. The injury/suspension situation in West Lafayette drew immediate comparisons to last year's Michigan squad. Given Michigan's size, talent, and the fact that they were coming off a tough loss in Bloomington, I was hoping for a merely respectable showing for 25 or 30 minutes before the inevitable rout commenced. Purdue dressed ten and I was fully prepared to say to the assorted maize-and-blue supporters: "My team is on the floor."
Instead, Purdue came out and played about as well as they could have without Minnoy, Landry and Teague. Unlike the last time I had a chance to watch them, the motion offense was run in a much crisper and more fluid fashion, and it was run for 40 minutes. Nobody looked tired, nobody looked out of step (with the possible exception of Bryant Dillon, who is reluctant to jack an open shot from 15-18 feet). Marcus White will be a great addition once he gets over the tentativeness around the rim (maybe a lingering effect of the injury).
Painter made a definitive statement to Korey Spates by leaving him on the bench against Northwestern. He played very well and excusing a couple of ill-advised shots had a great floor game. Painter obviously needs Spates on the floor but was willing to send a message rather than cut corners to try and make a point but also win a game. That is important for those of us who want things done "the right way" (channeling Larry Brown, come in Larry Brown). Painter was also Keady-like in his demonstrations to the refs and to his own players, breaking a clipboard in half at one point during a time out.
I, for one, am encouraged. Once Painter gets some solid big men (Kiefer had a nice game, yes, but he is hot and cold as we all know), we will be in good shape. It may take two or three years, but it's worth the wait. It looked hopeless before the tip, but the Boilers damn near pulled out the win as 17.5 point dogs.
Also, Graham Brown is a beast. Michigan's front line would be in a heap of trouble without him.
Cheers,
Matt May
Thanks, Matt! ¶ 6:41 AM
Wisconsin beat Michigan State 82-63 in Madison yesterday. Perhaps even more surprising than the margin of victory was the pace of the game. Where Illinois beat the Spartans last Thursday night by slowing things down to a crawl (57 possessions), the historically deliberate Badgers played MSU straight up and beat them soundly in a 71-possession game. In what is fast becoming a disturbing trend for State fans, the opposing team's primary outside threat went berserk: Kammron Taylor hit 5-of-8 threes and scored 27 points. This was the second consecutive game where the Spartans allowed their opponent to hit 10-of-21 threes. Shannon Brown scored 31 points on 23 FGAs for State but Paul Davis and Mo Ager were a combined 6-for-25 and added just 13 total points. Schedule, schmedule--Michigan State would have lost to any of six Big Ten teams the way they played yesterday. Tom Izzo's take? "I think you've got to give credit to Illinois and Wisconsin. I think they played some good defense. But our two stars are not playing very well. It's no big secret. In fact, they're playing awful." (Box score.)
So here's Wisconsin, sitting pretty at 2-0. Yes, Indiana and Northwestern are 2-0 as well. But they don't have the Badgers' sweet schedule. Here are Wisconsin's next 12 games (not counting a North Dakota State game thrown in for odd measure):
at Minnesota
vs. Northwestern
at Ohio State
vs. Penn State
at Michigan
vs. Illinois
at Purdue
vs. Indiana
at Penn State
vs. Ohio State
at Northwestern
vs. Minnesota
While not likely, to be sure, it's not inconceivable that UW could run that table. For a team that's lost just one home game in-conference under Bo Ryan, the toughest game on that slate might be next Wednesday's trip to Ohio State. The Buckeyes are a very good team but Value City Arena isn't exactly Cameron Indoor.
True, the Badgers end the year with visits to East Lansing and Iowa City. But they don't play in Champaign or Bloomington this year. They would appear to be lucky and good. Big Ten front-runners Wisconsin, Wonk salutes you!
Links
Columnist Todd Schulz of the Lansing State Journal wants to know: "Does [Paul Davis] ever plan to post up again? Or, will he continue to float around the perimeter as if the lane is lined with land mines?"...Izzo wonders if Davis and Mo Ager are too preoccupied with their NBA prospects--former Spartan and current Milwaukee Buck Charlie Bell spoke with Ager about that possibility after the game.
Bold historiographical innovator Michael Hunt, Wonk salutes you! The Milwaukee Journal Sentinel columnist says yesterday felt like just another Wisconsin home game: a "19-point victory against an outfit such as Michigan State, while not exactly an everyday event, has become part of the expected Wisconsin basketball experience....The Badgers have been there, done that, again and again and again." Funny. I seem to remember a series of close UW wins--precisely what's made this rivalry so agonizing for State fans. Say, seven wins by an average of between five and six points. Oh, well. Must be me. (And Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates: "This just doesn't happen.")
Unbowed congenital optimist Jim Spadafore, Wonk salutes you! Michigan State is "still the favorite to win the Big Ten," says Spadafore in this morning's Detroit News. After all, Spadafore notes, visiting teams never win in Assembly Hall or the Kohl Center. True, but by Spadafore's lights anything that occurred in State's first two Big Ten games should have thus been labeled as meaningless in advance. Unique line of thinking, that. (Closer (much) to the mark is Spadafore's News colleague Dave Dye: "The bad start...isn't shocking because of who and where they've played, but the way it has happened is surprising.")
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Team stats have been updated. Get on over to the sidebar and enjoy. SPECIAL note to Ohio State fans! Don't crow too loudly about that sexy league-leading Illinois-in-2005-like 1.18 points per possession, a number that reflects what hoops analysts wearing white lab coats refer to as "the Penn State effect." Take out just that one game and the Buckeyes' number drops to (a still very nice) 1.15. BONUS look-ahead! In a week or two we here at Wonk World HQ will make the jump to in-conference team stats. Mmmm, in-conference: tempo-free numbers compiled against very similar opponents. (In the admirably symmetrical Pac 10, where every team plays every other team home and away, these would be well nigh the Archimedean ideal. Go to it, yet-to-emerge Pac 10 Wonk!)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Saturday!
Iowa beat Illinois 63-48 in Iowa City. The Hawkeyes limited the Illini to one of the most anemic offensive outings of any Big Ten team in any game so far this year: 0.70 points per possession. (Ironically, one of the only instances of an offense performing at an even lower level comes to us from...Iowa. They scored just 0.65 points per possession against NC State--and won.) Great D by the Hawkeyes or bad offense by the Illini? Both! (Duh.) Iowa would have given anyone a tough time Saturday. And, the way they were shooting, Illinois would have struggled to score against a fair to middling high school JV squad. Think of the difference between last year's Illini and this year's edition as being this simple (which it's not but humor me): Bruce Weber lost Luther Head and gained Brian Randle. I've been musing of late of the tremendous advantage that accrues to any team when their best player on offense is also very good on defense--or vice versa. Last year Head was the Illini's best defender. He's not as good on D as Randle (mostly because he's four inches shorter) but add in Head's NBA-level offense and you have a tenacious defender who also (again, duh) demanded the constant attention of opposing defenses. This year's Illini, by contrast, are learning what life is like when the other team does not have to defend all five players. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Ohio State 81-79 in Bloomington. A screening Marshall Strickland was run over by defender Terence Dials in the game's closing seconds and hit a pair of free throws for the win. (See the notably honked-off recap from the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog for more.) This was a fun second half to watch. That's usually a euphemism for "not a lot of D" and that is certainly the case here: the Hoosiers scored 49 second half points on 34 possessions for a notably gaudy 1.44 points per possession after the intermission. IU trailed by 17 in the first half before getting hot from outside. Marco Killingsworth led the Hoosiers with 26 points on 9-of-14 shooting. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Purdue 68-65 in Ann Arbor. This cannot bode well for Tommy Amaker's team: the Boilers come to Ann Arbor without 80 percent of their projected starting lineup (Crump suspended; Landry, Teague, and Minnoy out with bum knees), cough up 20 turnovers, and lose by just three? Ye gods. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat Minnesota 57-49 in Minneapolis. The Wildcats used a 1-3-1 zone and the Gophers were baffled almost literally from the opening possession. Vedran Vukusic scored 17 points and hit 3-of-5 threes, which is expected. What's not expected, however, is for NU freshman Craig Moore to score 15 on 5-of-7 shooting from outside the arc. See the spanking good recap from the Golden Gopher Hoops blog for more. So who needs offensive rebounding? The Wildcats recorded one (1) offensive board in this game, giving the Gophers a notably gaudy defensive rebound pct. of 95.8. (Box score.)
You've heard of the SI jinx
Is there a Frank Burlison jinx? Apparently.
Wonk back!
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Boiler roster depleted--but not Boiler spirits!
Hi, Wonk,
Attended the Purdue-Michigan tilt at Crisler. The injury/suspension situation in West Lafayette drew immediate comparisons to last year's Michigan squad. Given Michigan's size, talent, and the fact that they were coming off a tough loss in Bloomington, I was hoping for a merely respectable showing for 25 or 30 minutes before the inevitable rout commenced. Purdue dressed ten and I was fully prepared to say to the assorted maize-and-blue supporters: "My team is on the floor."
Instead, Purdue came out and played about as well as they could have without Minnoy, Landry and Teague. Unlike the last time I had a chance to watch them, the motion offense was run in a much crisper and more fluid fashion, and it was run for 40 minutes. Nobody looked tired, nobody looked out of step (with the possible exception of Bryant Dillon, who is reluctant to jack an open shot from 15-18 feet). Marcus White will be a great addition once he gets over the tentativeness around the rim (maybe a lingering effect of the injury).
Painter made a definitive statement to Korey Spates by leaving him on the bench against Northwestern. He played very well and excusing a couple of ill-advised shots had a great floor game. Painter obviously needs Spates on the floor but was willing to send a message rather than cut corners to try and make a point but also win a game. That is important for those of us who want things done "the right way" (channeling Larry Brown, come in Larry Brown). Painter was also Keady-like in his demonstrations to the refs and to his own players, breaking a clipboard in half at one point during a time out.
I, for one, am encouraged. Once Painter gets some solid big men (Kiefer had a nice game, yes, but he is hot and cold as we all know), we will be in good shape. It may take two or three years, but it's worth the wait. It looked hopeless before the tip, but the Boilers damn near pulled out the win as 17.5 point dogs.
Also, Graham Brown is a beast. Michigan's front line would be in a heap of trouble without him.
Cheers,
Matt May
Thanks, Matt! ¶ 6:41 AM
Offensive efficiency: points per possession (PPP--more about this stat)
All games, thru January 8
1. Ohio State (1.18)
2. Indiana (1.14)
3. Michigan State (1.13)
4. Wisconsin (1.13)
5. Illinois (1.10)
6. Michigan (1.10)
7. Penn State (1.07)
8. Minnesota (1.01)
9. Northwestern (1.01)
10. Iowa (0.96)
11. Purdue (0.96) ¶ 5:00 AM
All games, thru January 8
1. Ohio State (1.18)
2. Indiana (1.14)
3. Michigan State (1.13)
4. Wisconsin (1.13)
5. Illinois (1.10)
6. Michigan (1.10)
7. Penn State (1.07)
8. Minnesota (1.01)
9. Northwestern (1.01)
10. Iowa (0.96)
11. Purdue (0.96) ¶ 5:00 AM
Defensive efficiency: opponent points per possession (Opp. PPP--more about this stat)
All games, thru January 8
1. Iowa (0.81)
2. Illinois (0.84)
3. Minnesota (0.90)
4. Northwestern (0.91)
5. Indiana (0.92)
6. Wisconsin (0.94)
7. Michigan (0.94)
8. Ohio State (0.97)
9. Penn State (1.01)
10. Purdue (1.02)
11. Michigan State (1.02) ¶ 4:50 AM
All games, thru January 8
1. Iowa (0.81)
2. Illinois (0.84)
3. Minnesota (0.90)
4. Northwestern (0.91)
5. Indiana (0.92)
6. Wisconsin (0.94)
7. Michigan (0.94)
8. Ohio State (0.97)
9. Penn State (1.01)
10. Purdue (1.02)
11. Michigan State (1.02) ¶ 4:50 AM
Efficiency margin: points per possession (PPP) minus opponent PPP (more about these stats)
All games, thru January 8
1. Illinois (+0.26)
2. Indiana (+0.22)
3. Ohio State (+0.21)
4. Wisconsin (+0.19)
5. Michigan (+0.16)
6. Iowa (+0.15)
7. Michigan State (+0.11)
8. Minnesota (+0.11)
9. Northwestern (+0.10)
10. Penn State (+0.06)
11. Purdue (-0.06) ¶ 4:40 AM
All games, thru January 8
1. Illinois (+0.26)
2. Indiana (+0.22)
3. Ohio State (+0.21)
4. Wisconsin (+0.19)
5. Michigan (+0.16)
6. Iowa (+0.15)
7. Michigan State (+0.11)
8. Minnesota (+0.11)
9. Northwestern (+0.10)
10. Penn State (+0.06)
11. Purdue (-0.06) ¶ 4:40 AM
Effective FG pct. (eFG pct.)
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
All games, thru January 8
1. Indiana (61.7)
2. Ohio State (58.4)
3. Michigan (55.1)
4. Michigan State (54.3)
5. Penn State (54.0)
6. Illinois (53.2)
7. Wisconsin (53.1)
8. Northwestern (52.8)
9. Minnesota (51.2)
10. Purdue (50.8)
11. Iowa (45.8)
Opponent eFG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Iowa (41.2)
2. Illinois (42.3)
3. Indiana (45.7)
4. Northwestern (45.9)
5. Wisconsin (46.0)
6. Michigan (47.5)
7. Minnesota (48.2)
8. Ohio State (48.5)
9. Penn State (49.4)
10. Michigan State (49.9)
11. Purdue (50.5) ¶ 4:30 AM
eFG pct. = (FGM + (0.5 x 3PM))/FGA
All games, thru January 8
1. Indiana (61.7)
2. Ohio State (58.4)
3. Michigan (55.1)
4. Michigan State (54.3)
5. Penn State (54.0)
6. Illinois (53.2)
7. Wisconsin (53.1)
8. Northwestern (52.8)
9. Minnesota (51.2)
10. Purdue (50.8)
11. Iowa (45.8)
Opponent eFG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Iowa (41.2)
2. Illinois (42.3)
3. Indiana (45.7)
4. Northwestern (45.9)
5. Wisconsin (46.0)
6. Michigan (47.5)
7. Minnesota (48.2)
8. Ohio State (48.5)
9. Penn State (49.4)
10. Michigan State (49.9)
11. Purdue (50.5) ¶ 4:30 AM
3FG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Indiana (47.7)
2. Ohio State (43.0)
3. Michigan State (40.7)
4. Wisconsin (38.8)
5. Michigan (38.6)
6. Illinois (38.1)
7. Penn State (37.2)
8. Minnesota (35.6)
9. Purdue (34.4)
10. Iowa (31.1)
11. Northwestern (31.0)
Opponent 3FG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Illinois (27.0)
2. Northwestern (29.0)
3. Iowa (29.3)
4. Indiana (32.1)
5. Penn State (32.8)
6. Wisconsin (33.2)
7. Michigan (35.5)
8. Ohio State (36.2)
9. Michigan State (38.0)
10. Purdue (39.8)
11. Minnesota (39.9) ¶ 4:20 AM
All games, thru January 8
1. Indiana (47.7)
2. Ohio State (43.0)
3. Michigan State (40.7)
4. Wisconsin (38.8)
5. Michigan (38.6)
6. Illinois (38.1)
7. Penn State (37.2)
8. Minnesota (35.6)
9. Purdue (34.4)
10. Iowa (31.1)
11. Northwestern (31.0)
Opponent 3FG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Illinois (27.0)
2. Northwestern (29.0)
3. Iowa (29.3)
4. Indiana (32.1)
5. Penn State (32.8)
6. Wisconsin (33.2)
7. Michigan (35.5)
8. Ohio State (36.2)
9. Michigan State (38.0)
10. Purdue (39.8)
11. Minnesota (39.9) ¶ 4:20 AM
2FG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Northwestern (57.3)
2. Indiana (56.0)
3. Ohio State (54.8)
4. Michigan (54.0)
5. Penn State (53.4)
6. Michigan State (51.7)
7. Illinois (50.9)
8. Wisconsin (50.9)
9. Purdue (50.4)
10. Minnesota (50.4)
11. Iowa (45.5)
Opponent 2FG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Iowa (39.9)
2. Minnesota (42.8)
3. Illinois (43.0)
4. Wisconsin (44.0)
5. Indiana (44.5)
6. Michigan (44.5)
7. Purdue (45.6)
8. Michigan State (45.9)
9. Ohio State (46.0)
10. Northwestern (47.5)
11. Penn State (49.5) ¶ 4:10 AM
All games, thru January 8
1. Northwestern (57.3)
2. Indiana (56.0)
3. Ohio State (54.8)
4. Michigan (54.0)
5. Penn State (53.4)
6. Michigan State (51.7)
7. Illinois (50.9)
8. Wisconsin (50.9)
9. Purdue (50.4)
10. Minnesota (50.4)
11. Iowa (45.5)
Opponent 2FG pct.
All games, thru January 8
1. Iowa (39.9)
2. Minnesota (42.8)
3. Illinois (43.0)
4. Wisconsin (44.0)
5. Indiana (44.5)
6. Michigan (44.5)
7. Purdue (45.6)
8. Michigan State (45.9)
9. Ohio State (46.0)
10. Northwestern (47.5)
11. Penn State (49.5) ¶ 4:10 AM
Turnover percentage
TOs/team possessions
All games, thru January 8
1. Wisconsin (17.0)
2. Ohio State (19.6)
3. Northwestern (19.7)
4. Illinois (20.5)
5. Michigan State (21.2)
6. Penn State (21.5)
7. Iowa (22.0)
8. Indiana (22.0)
9. Michigan (22.6)
10. Minnesota (22.7)
11. Purdue (28.7)
Opponent turnover percentage
All games, thru January 8
1. Minnesota (26.0)
2. Northwestern (25.8)
3. Iowa (23.7)
4. Illinois (23.6)
5. Purdue (22.4)
6. Indiana (22.3)
7. Ohio State (22.2)
8. Michigan (21.6)
9. Wisconsin (21.5)
10. Penn State (21.1)
11. Michigan State (19.8) ¶ 4:00 AM
TOs/team possessions
All games, thru January 8
1. Wisconsin (17.0)
2. Ohio State (19.6)
3. Northwestern (19.7)
4. Illinois (20.5)
5. Michigan State (21.2)
6. Penn State (21.5)
7. Iowa (22.0)
8. Indiana (22.0)
9. Michigan (22.6)
10. Minnesota (22.7)
11. Purdue (28.7)
Opponent turnover percentage
All games, thru January 8
1. Minnesota (26.0)
2. Northwestern (25.8)
3. Iowa (23.7)
4. Illinois (23.6)
5. Purdue (22.4)
6. Indiana (22.3)
7. Ohio State (22.2)
8. Michigan (21.6)
9. Wisconsin (21.5)
10. Penn State (21.1)
11. Michigan State (19.8) ¶ 4:00 AM
Offensive rebound pct.
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 8
1. Illinois (41.1)
2. Penn State (38.5)
3. Purdue (38.4)
4. Michigan (37.9)
5. Michigan State (37.8)
6. Wisconsin (36.4)
7. Minnesota (36.3)
8. Ohio State (35.4)
9. Iowa (33.9)
10. Indiana (30.1)
11. Northwestern (23.7) ¶ 3:50 AM
Oreb pct. = orebs/(orebs + opp. drebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 8
1. Illinois (41.1)
2. Penn State (38.5)
3. Purdue (38.4)
4. Michigan (37.9)
5. Michigan State (37.8)
6. Wisconsin (36.4)
7. Minnesota (36.3)
8. Ohio State (35.4)
9. Iowa (33.9)
10. Indiana (30.1)
11. Northwestern (23.7) ¶ 3:50 AM
Defensive rebound pct.
Dreb pct. = drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 8
1. Michigan (71.9)
2. lowa (71.0)
3. Indiana (70.5)
4. Minnesota (70.3)
5. Illinois (70.2)
6. Michigan State (70.2)
7. Wisconsin (68.7)
8. Penn State (67.1)
9. Purdue (67.0)
10. Ohio State (66.8)
11. Northwestern (66.1) ¶ 3:40 AM
Dreb pct. = drebs/(drebs + opp. orebs)
(More about this stat)
All games, thru January 8
1. Michigan (71.9)
2. lowa (71.0)
3. Indiana (70.5)
4. Minnesota (70.3)
5. Illinois (70.2)
6. Michigan State (70.2)
7. Wisconsin (68.7)
8. Penn State (67.1)
9. Purdue (67.0)
10. Ohio State (66.8)
11. Northwestern (66.1) ¶ 3:40 AM
Possessions per 40 min.
All games, thru January 8
1. Indiana (70.6)
2. Purdue (70.1)
3. Minnesota (69.9)
4. Penn State (68.7)
5. Michigan State (68.5)
6. Ohio State (68.4)
7. Iowa (67.8)
8. Wisconsin (67.7)
9. Illinois (66.0)
10. Michigan (65.8)
11. Northwestern (59.3) ¶ 3:30 AM
All games, thru January 8
1. Indiana (70.6)
2. Purdue (70.1)
3. Minnesota (69.9)
4. Penn State (68.7)
5. Michigan State (68.5)
6. Ohio State (68.4)
7. Iowa (67.8)
8. Wisconsin (67.7)
9. Illinois (66.0)
10. Michigan (65.8)
11. Northwestern (59.3) ¶ 3:30 AM
Friday, January 06, 2006
Just one of those nights
So said Mo Ager last night, after Illinois beat Michigan State 60-50 in Champaign. "It happens to the best of them." He's exactly right.
Michigan State will be fine. What's more, it appears everyone knows it. Going through this morning's papers I was surprised and delighted to see no overwrought 2004-05-style "big game no-show" recriminations from the Spartan coverage. This was simply a classic early-conference loss: Illinois took away MSU's first option, transition, and State had no response. A game or two down the line, they will.
Shannon Brown has, to this observer's eyes, made a bigger improvement over last year than even the much-improved Drew Neitzel. Matt Trannon gives Tom Izzo exactly the hint of 2000 that he needs on the floor. And, despite Dee Brown going off for 34 points, the Spartans' defense was for the most part solid (helped along, granted, by the uncannily happy feet of frequent traveler James Augustine and his Killingsworth-esque seven TOs). True, Neitzel was victimized badly on consecutive possessions during Brown's personal 11-2 run late in the first half. (Watch the tape. It's not pretty.) But overall State's intensity on D was what it should be every night.
The problem was the Illinois D was even better. Last night's game represented both the Spartans' worst shooting of the season (40.4 effective FG pct.) and their most ineffective outing on offense (0.87 points per possession)--yes, even worse than the Hawaii cramp fest. Brian Randle is getting no shortage of love this morning for the job he did on Ager and the lanky Peorian is indeed an asset on D. ("Randle was huge on Ager,'' according to Bruce Weber. "He broke his spirit, got him out of the game.") Still, I felt during the game that MSU stopped looking for Ager much too soon. (Same for Paul Davis, who recorded history's quietest near dub-dub: 12 points and nine boards.)
As for that other Brown, Izzo compared him to Vince Young last night and his shooting was, of course, unconscious (7-of-13 threes). But there was more at work here than hot shooting. Brown works as hard without the ball as the Illini D works all the time. He is this team's leader, whether the shots are falling or not. And this team needed a leader on a night when its non-Brown offense was so Edvard Munch-level horrific. (Box score.)
Confirmed stylistic pluralist Bruce Weber, Wonk salutes you!
This Illini fan owes Weber an apology. A little less than two years ago, when the little-known new guy from Southern Illinois lost at home to Purdue and then lost on the road to Northwestern and then got blown out of the gym by Wisconsin in Madison, this despondent observer was ready to throw his support to some less agonizing but endearingly hapless lost cause like Northern Colorado. Or Illinois football. That was then.
Now I am frankly in awe of Weber. Show me another coach that could so dramatically shift emphases within his basic system to fit his changing personnel--and do it this quickly and successfully. In the space of 15 games spanning this year and last, Illinois has gone from a team defined by its offense to one feared for its defense--winning all the while. Coach, take a bow.
(Yes, the D was overlooked last year and was in fact extremely good. Duly noted.)
Links
Good D or bad offense? Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz asks the question: "Do the Spartans get the blame for their struggles? Or does No. 6 Illinois deserve credit for them? A bit of both, leaning toward the latter." Izzo disagrees: "I'm not sure if Illinois was at its best; I'm sure we weren't at our best; and Dee Brown was at his very, very best." Yikes. Wouldn't want to be certain non-Shannon Brown people at the State practice today. Izzo: "Shannon Brown played his tail off tonight. [But] I'm really disappointed in the way my seniors played. Not very often am I disappointed in some people the way I was tonight." Brown, Ager and Davis scored a combined 38 points on 12-of-33 shooting. "We took their three main guys out of the game," James Augustine said afterward. Dee Brown says, despite averaging 18.6 points for his career against State, he doesn't "get up" for playing the Spartans: "I love Izzo, I love their program, I love the way they play."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper finds himself concerned about every Illinois player not named Dee Brown: "In truth, the majority of the offense could be described in the Illini playbook as 'Pass-pass-pass, let Dee figure a way to save our butts.'" Peoria Journal Star columnist Kirk Wessler puts it this way: "While the rest of the Illini appeared to have failed to synchronize their offensive watches, Brown meshed with the universe." Brown's 34 points were the most by an Illinois player since (anyone?) Kevin Turner scored 35 against Indiana in 1998.
How touchy were the refs? Official Steve Welmer ejected a fan from Assembly Hall at halftime. (Can they do that? Is this a First Amendment case? Just asking!) Also: blow-by-blow of Weber's prelude-to-a-T jawing with the refs here. It was Weber's first T at Illinois.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Iowa 66-52 in Madison last night. The Hawkeyes came into this game giving opponents just 0.80 points per possession and holding them to an effective FG pct. of just 41.3. Last night, conversely, the Badgers recorded 1.07 PPP with an eFG pct. of 52.5. That's actually not all that bad as FG defense goes--but put that together with only six Wisconsin turnovers, an anemic Hawkeye offense (just 18 points after intermission--during one stretch Iowa shot 1-for-25), and a road setting and you have your L. (Watching this game in its early stages, I found myself wondering if Iowa's hitherto stingy defense has truly been tested in terms of quickness. Maybe we'll learn more tomorrow when Dee Brown comes to Iowa City.) Alando Tucker led the Badgers with 27 points on 12-of-22 shooting from the field, including consecutive threes midway through the second half ("I saw their heads start going down at that point," he said afterward). Greg Stiemsma recorded five blocks in just 17 minutes. Bo Ryan says Wisconsin's stifling second half D was not the product of any halftime adjustments: "We played the same way we did in the first half, only we played it better." (Box score.)...Wisconsin redshirt freshman DeAaron Williams has left the team temporarily for "personal reasons."
Ohio State eviscerated Penn State 104-69 last night in Columbus, a lopsided outcome the Buckeye Commentary blog nevertheless found "surprisingly entertaining." Ron Lewis had a nice line for the Buckeyes: 26 points on 10-of-11 shooting (including 5-of-6 threes) in 21 minutes. Ben Luber had a tough line for the Nittany Lions: seven points, two assists, and six turnovers in 24 minutes. See the spanking good recap from the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. Congratulations, Buckeyes! You recorded the most efficient 40 minutes of offense played by any Big Ten team in any game this year: 1.55 points per possession, topping the previous record of 1.52 by Michigan against Miami of Ohio. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan plays Purdue in Ann Arbor (ESPN Plus, 12:07 Eastern--how's that for precision!). The Boilers will be without freshman Nate Minnoy, who is out for the year after suffering a torn MCL in Wednesday night's game against Northwestern.
Iowa plays Illinois in Iowa City (ESPN, 2 ET).
Minnesota plays Northwestern in Minneapolis (ESPN Plus, 2 ET).
Indiana plays Ohio State in Bloomington (CBS, 4 ET).
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Sunday!
Wisconsin plays Michigan State in Madison (CBS, 1:30 ET).
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Egad! Email from ACC fans? Is this allowed?
Mr. Wonk,
How did Illinois and Michigan State combine to score only 110 points? Well, I looked at the box and the answer was poor shooting, but I didn't see why the shooting was so poor. I was unable to find number of possessions; perhaps you have that number.
The Illinois defense was strong but MSU did get many opportunities around the basket and from open outside shots. I seem to remember a recent praising by Mr. Wonk of the MSU offense with a challenge to the defensive success.
Illinois really turned it over in the post. Are their bigs suffering from a lack of Deron Williams' smooth point play? From my soapbox, Dee Brown is not an effective point guard and his play at point will ultimately cripple this team. My Tar Heels almost overtook them with a late second half rally and we then were just learning to play defense.
Maybe both these teams need to use the refs from last night's Louisville-Villanova contest. Those guys went back to Pearl Washington levels of palming, Georgetown 1984 levels of mayhem, and Dook patterns of clutching & grabbing.
Jerry H.
Thanks for the view from the outside, Jerry. And in answer to your question--number of possessions last night: 57. ¶ 6:09 AM
So said Mo Ager last night, after Illinois beat Michigan State 60-50 in Champaign. "It happens to the best of them." He's exactly right.
Michigan State will be fine. What's more, it appears everyone knows it. Going through this morning's papers I was surprised and delighted to see no overwrought 2004-05-style "big game no-show" recriminations from the Spartan coverage. This was simply a classic early-conference loss: Illinois took away MSU's first option, transition, and State had no response. A game or two down the line, they will.
Shannon Brown has, to this observer's eyes, made a bigger improvement over last year than even the much-improved Drew Neitzel. Matt Trannon gives Tom Izzo exactly the hint of 2000 that he needs on the floor. And, despite Dee Brown going off for 34 points, the Spartans' defense was for the most part solid (helped along, granted, by the uncannily happy feet of frequent traveler James Augustine and his Killingsworth-esque seven TOs). True, Neitzel was victimized badly on consecutive possessions during Brown's personal 11-2 run late in the first half. (Watch the tape. It's not pretty.) But overall State's intensity on D was what it should be every night.
The problem was the Illinois D was even better. Last night's game represented both the Spartans' worst shooting of the season (40.4 effective FG pct.) and their most ineffective outing on offense (0.87 points per possession)--yes, even worse than the Hawaii cramp fest. Brian Randle is getting no shortage of love this morning for the job he did on Ager and the lanky Peorian is indeed an asset on D. ("Randle was huge on Ager,'' according to Bruce Weber. "He broke his spirit, got him out of the game.") Still, I felt during the game that MSU stopped looking for Ager much too soon. (Same for Paul Davis, who recorded history's quietest near dub-dub: 12 points and nine boards.)
As for that other Brown, Izzo compared him to Vince Young last night and his shooting was, of course, unconscious (7-of-13 threes). But there was more at work here than hot shooting. Brown works as hard without the ball as the Illini D works all the time. He is this team's leader, whether the shots are falling or not. And this team needed a leader on a night when its non-Brown offense was so Edvard Munch-level horrific. (Box score.)
Confirmed stylistic pluralist Bruce Weber, Wonk salutes you!
This Illini fan owes Weber an apology. A little less than two years ago, when the little-known new guy from Southern Illinois lost at home to Purdue and then lost on the road to Northwestern and then got blown out of the gym by Wisconsin in Madison, this despondent observer was ready to throw his support to some less agonizing but endearingly hapless lost cause like Northern Colorado. Or Illinois football. That was then.
Now I am frankly in awe of Weber. Show me another coach that could so dramatically shift emphases within his basic system to fit his changing personnel--and do it this quickly and successfully. In the space of 15 games spanning this year and last, Illinois has gone from a team defined by its offense to one feared for its defense--winning all the while. Coach, take a bow.
(Yes, the D was overlooked last year and was in fact extremely good. Duly noted.)
Links
Good D or bad offense? Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz asks the question: "Do the Spartans get the blame for their struggles? Or does No. 6 Illinois deserve credit for them? A bit of both, leaning toward the latter." Izzo disagrees: "I'm not sure if Illinois was at its best; I'm sure we weren't at our best; and Dee Brown was at his very, very best." Yikes. Wouldn't want to be certain non-Shannon Brown people at the State practice today. Izzo: "Shannon Brown played his tail off tonight. [But] I'm really disappointed in the way my seniors played. Not very often am I disappointed in some people the way I was tonight." Brown, Ager and Davis scored a combined 38 points on 12-of-33 shooting. "We took their three main guys out of the game," James Augustine said afterward. Dee Brown says, despite averaging 18.6 points for his career against State, he doesn't "get up" for playing the Spartans: "I love Izzo, I love their program, I love the way they play."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper finds himself concerned about every Illinois player not named Dee Brown: "In truth, the majority of the offense could be described in the Illini playbook as 'Pass-pass-pass, let Dee figure a way to save our butts.'" Peoria Journal Star columnist Kirk Wessler puts it this way: "While the rest of the Illini appeared to have failed to synchronize their offensive watches, Brown meshed with the universe." Brown's 34 points were the most by an Illinois player since (anyone?) Kevin Turner scored 35 against Indiana in 1998.
How touchy were the refs? Official Steve Welmer ejected a fan from Assembly Hall at halftime. (Can they do that? Is this a First Amendment case? Just asking!) Also: blow-by-blow of Weber's prelude-to-a-T jawing with the refs here. It was Weber's first T at Illinois.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Iowa 66-52 in Madison last night. The Hawkeyes came into this game giving opponents just 0.80 points per possession and holding them to an effective FG pct. of just 41.3. Last night, conversely, the Badgers recorded 1.07 PPP with an eFG pct. of 52.5. That's actually not all that bad as FG defense goes--but put that together with only six Wisconsin turnovers, an anemic Hawkeye offense (just 18 points after intermission--during one stretch Iowa shot 1-for-25), and a road setting and you have your L. (Watching this game in its early stages, I found myself wondering if Iowa's hitherto stingy defense has truly been tested in terms of quickness. Maybe we'll learn more tomorrow when Dee Brown comes to Iowa City.) Alando Tucker led the Badgers with 27 points on 12-of-22 shooting from the field, including consecutive threes midway through the second half ("I saw their heads start going down at that point," he said afterward). Greg Stiemsma recorded five blocks in just 17 minutes. Bo Ryan says Wisconsin's stifling second half D was not the product of any halftime adjustments: "We played the same way we did in the first half, only we played it better." (Box score.)...Wisconsin redshirt freshman DeAaron Williams has left the team temporarily for "personal reasons."
Ohio State eviscerated Penn State 104-69 last night in Columbus, a lopsided outcome the Buckeye Commentary blog nevertheless found "surprisingly entertaining." Ron Lewis had a nice line for the Buckeyes: 26 points on 10-of-11 shooting (including 5-of-6 threes) in 21 minutes. Ben Luber had a tough line for the Nittany Lions: seven points, two assists, and six turnovers in 24 minutes. See the spanking good recap from the Buckeye Sports Blitz blog. Congratulations, Buckeyes! You recorded the most efficient 40 minutes of offense played by any Big Ten team in any game this year: 1.55 points per possession, topping the previous record of 1.52 by Michigan against Miami of Ohio. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--tomorrow!
Michigan plays Purdue in Ann Arbor (ESPN Plus, 12:07 Eastern--how's that for precision!). The Boilers will be without freshman Nate Minnoy, who is out for the year after suffering a torn MCL in Wednesday night's game against Northwestern.
Iowa plays Illinois in Iowa City (ESPN, 2 ET).
Minnesota plays Northwestern in Minneapolis (ESPN Plus, 2 ET).
Indiana plays Ohio State in Bloomington (CBS, 4 ET).
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Sunday!
Wisconsin plays Michigan State in Madison (CBS, 1:30 ET).
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Egad! Email from ACC fans? Is this allowed?
Mr. Wonk,
How did Illinois and Michigan State combine to score only 110 points? Well, I looked at the box and the answer was poor shooting, but I didn't see why the shooting was so poor. I was unable to find number of possessions; perhaps you have that number.
The Illinois defense was strong but MSU did get many opportunities around the basket and from open outside shots. I seem to remember a recent praising by Mr. Wonk of the MSU offense with a challenge to the defensive success.
Illinois really turned it over in the post. Are their bigs suffering from a lack of Deron Williams' smooth point play? From my soapbox, Dee Brown is not an effective point guard and his play at point will ultimately cripple this team. My Tar Heels almost overtook them with a late second half rally and we then were just learning to play defense.
Maybe both these teams need to use the refs from last night's Louisville-Villanova contest. Those guys went back to Pearl Washington levels of palming, Georgetown 1984 levels of mayhem, and Dook patterns of clutching & grabbing.
Jerry H.
Thanks for the view from the outside, Jerry. And in answer to your question--number of possessions last night: 57. ¶ 6:09 AM
Thursday, January 05, 2006
Now the season begins for real
Illinois plays Michigan State in Champaign tonight (ESPN2, 9 ET) and given what we think we know in early January this is a very big game--perhaps a little too big for coming so soon. Be that as it may, tonight's winning team will surely offer no objections to already having this win safely in their pocket when they wake up on January 6.
The Illini, as has been widely noted, have been getting it done this year on the strength of good defense. That being said, the Spartans' offense presents far and away the biggest challenge the Illini have faced. This is one of the nation's five best offenses and, like any offense this good, its strengths are varied enough that no one factor or player carries too much of the weight.
To take just one fairly random example: State is a surprisingly good outside shooting team, hitting 42 percent of their threes. And yet Tom Izzo's team rarely shoots threes (only Penn State and Minnesota shoot fewer as a percentage of attempts). They don't need to--they push the tempo, find the match up they like wherever it is on the court, and, often via a Drew Neitzel assist, exploit it.
The match up the Spartans like most is often in the paint. Not surprising, surely, given that Paul Davis is one of the best players in the country. His rebounding can only be termed dominant, he scores a lot of points, and he scores them very efficiently. (Why don't I ever hear Davis's name in national POY talk? Just asking!) Illinois hasn't yet had to play the level of post defense that they will need to play tonight. The good news for Illini fans is Bruce Weber has more depth in his frontcourt than Illinois has had in years--that will help the home team tonight.
James Augustine is to Paul Davis roughly what Michigan State was to Illinois last year: tremendously talented and performing at an extremely high level, yet a bit overlooked. While Davis is indisputably a better rebounder (duh--Davis is a better rebounder than every player in the Big Ten) and a more potent scoring threat, Augustine is still a crucial element in the Illini's success. Good things tend to happen for Illinois when he gets touches. Augustine's an excellent passer, startlingly quick for a player his size, and makes point-guard quality decisions within Bruce Weber's motion offense.
But there'll be plenty to watch outside the paint as well. I'll be interested to see who Brian Randle guards (probably Mo Ager). Illinois fans think Randle is a tremendous talent on D--both long and quick--but it's been hard to know for sure given the Illini's schedule thus far. (Randle made Thomas Gardner look really bad in the Missouri game, this much we know.) That will leave Rich McBride on whomever Randle's not guarding (maybe Shannon Brown, who's hitting 44 percent of his threes).
And, of course, the match up between Neitzel and Dee Brown promises to be entertaining. These two have only played against each other once, last February, and Neitzel's come a long way since then. But then Brown's come a long way since November: after a very rocky start running the point, Brown's looked much more comfortable of late. His assists were plentiful even early but in recent games his turnovers are down and his shooting's improved. Between Brown, McBride and freshman PPWS sensation Jamar Smith, Illinois has (Wichita State notwithstanding) usually been able to hit enough threes to get the job done.
Bruce Weber's team has done very well this year holding on to the ball, as have Michigan State's opponents on the whole. Those mutually reinforcing tendencies suggest the Illini are likely to give the Spartans very few TOs tonight. If the home team is hitting their shots, then, State's offense will called upon to be as outstanding as they've been all year. On the other hand, if Illinois is firing blanks, the pressure will be on the Illini D to be as strong against Final Four-caliber competition as they've been against their non-conference foes.
Let's tip it off.
Links
Tom Izzo predicts a fast pace: "They're playing a little better than we are defensively right now, and I guarantee you both teams are going to run." Izzo also offers the highest praise to his veteran core of Davis, Ager, and Brown: "They want to win (a championship) more than I do."...Shannon Brown says he likes the tough early schedule that the Big Ten gave the Spartans: "We're just gonna come out and we're gonna fight."...Possibly the best five-word description of Assembly Hall I've yet seen, courtesy of the Lansing State Journal's Joe Rexrode: "Dark, orange and painfully loud."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says never mind its early arrival, this game is a heavyweight bout: "Believe me: Michigan State, Indiana and Illinois all think they’re going to win the Big Ten and make it to the Final Four. That just ratchets up the intensity because nobody wants to lose early, especially when going head-to-head with another of the top three contenders." Rich McBride says how well Illinois plays D against Michigan State's talented scorers will be the key to the game: "We just have to try to keep them in front of us. Shannon and Ager are great players, but if we stick to what we've been doing and trust each other, we should be OK." Bruce Weber says amen to that. "Ager is a quick-up shooter. You have to be there every time he comes off a screen." Neil Milbert of the Chicago Tribune explains Illinois' surprising success (here) and looks at their three near-losses (here). Dee Brown still has an Izzone-created sign that Luther Head found in the Breslin Center after last year's game. It reads: "S. BROWN OWNS D. BROWN." (This just in: Dee Brown and Shannon Brown were high school teammates! Who knew!)
BONUS year-in-pictures note! Illinois fans looking for an outstanding photographic retrospective of last year's historic season can link here and enjoy a spectacle that is at once celebratory and yet admirably even-handed (including as it does images of Matt Sylvester and the damage done).
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern beat Purdue 66-53 last night in Evanston in a very slow game. Both teams shot quite well (hitting a combined 15-of-36 threes--including, go figure, a 3-of-5 from Matt Kiefer) but the Boilers coughed up 19 turnovers, which, in a game with only 55 possessions, is even worse than it sounds. In effect, Matt Painter's team gave away one out of every three possessions. Vedran Vukusic led the Wildcats with 28 points, only six of which, surprisingly, came from threes. Tim Doyle added a career-high 20. Purdue freshman Nate Minnoy suffered a knee injury just three minutes into the game and did not return. No word yet on the extent of his injury. (Ye gods. Painter's due for a good break. Several, in fact.) (Box score.)
Wisconsin plays Iowa tonight in Madison. Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska has, thank goodness, ended his holiday hiatus just in time to give us a customarily outstanding preview--make haste! As for MSM fare....Hawkeye coach Steve Alford says the Badgers' height will be a challenge: "They are extremely big. They start big; their bench is big. So we've got to do a good job on the boards. We can't be giving them second shots. They are hard enough to guard the way it is." But Bo Ryan says his team's height is young: "Iowa has a lot more experience (than Wisconsin) on the floor from last year." As for his own squad: "All you can do is give them the opportunities in practice and in games to become more accustomed to what is going on in a system and then you hope when it comes game time that they mimic that." More on the Badger bench here.
Ohio State plays Penn State in Columbus tonight. PSU's Geary Claxton says he and his mates know what they're up against on the road in the Big Ten. "It's a rough league. You have to keep your heads in it and just play your game. We have to work as a team to get through it."
Minnesota is battling the flu bug and Dan Monson is fretful: "It's definitely contagious." The Gophers open Big Ten play Saturday at home against Northwestern.
Yay conference!
In one of his periodic stellar contributions to ESPN.com, Jeff Shelman says the Big Ten is back, baybee!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Treachery most foul?
Wonk,
Thanks for the wonderful blog. I read it daily. I selfishly hope I don't lose you to ESPN or some other MSM outlet like I did with Kyle and Ken. Can't say I blame them, though.
I wasn't able to see the Michigan/Indiana game, but from the box score it seemed the biggest discrepancy was the foul shooting. Indiana took 25 FTs and Michigan took five! The Wolverines were outscored by 12 at the line and lost by seven. I guess that's how you manage to lose a game even though you outrebounded your opponent by 11 and took and made more FGs.
Sure, Michigan's 22 turnovers are ugly, but they made up for that by grabbing extra possessions on the offensive glass (17 of 36 possible). Again, I didn't see the game, but I would think a Michigan fan (I am not one) may have had something to say about the officiating. Was this noticeable during the game?
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Matt T.
This observer, for one, didn't see injustices that were more numerous or egregious than the norm. Remember that, blessed as they are with depth in the frontcourt, Michigan is constitutionally less foul-averse than your garden variety squad. And 11 of those Hoosier FTAs were from Killingsworth alone. As for Wolverine FTAs, well, maybe if Sims had recorded more than four FGAs there would have been some.
By the way, your reference to 17 of a possible 36 offensive boards leads me to geek a little on the salacious and exciting sweeps-weeks topic of box scores. Every now and then I hear from an alert reader who says they've done some micro-wonking on their own but that their PPP numbers aren't the same as mine. My message to them is: insist on official box scores, like this one for the Michigan-Indiana game. The key difference between an official box score and one like this is as follows: official box scores take "team rebounds" (those not credited to an individual player) and break them down into offensive and defensive boards. So we learn that the Wolverines actually had 19 orebs out of a possible 38.
Anyway, thanks for the kind words, Matt. ¶ 6:37 AM
Illinois plays Michigan State in Champaign tonight (ESPN2, 9 ET) and given what we think we know in early January this is a very big game--perhaps a little too big for coming so soon. Be that as it may, tonight's winning team will surely offer no objections to already having this win safely in their pocket when they wake up on January 6.
The Illini, as has been widely noted, have been getting it done this year on the strength of good defense. That being said, the Spartans' offense presents far and away the biggest challenge the Illini have faced. This is one of the nation's five best offenses and, like any offense this good, its strengths are varied enough that no one factor or player carries too much of the weight.
To take just one fairly random example: State is a surprisingly good outside shooting team, hitting 42 percent of their threes. And yet Tom Izzo's team rarely shoots threes (only Penn State and Minnesota shoot fewer as a percentage of attempts). They don't need to--they push the tempo, find the match up they like wherever it is on the court, and, often via a Drew Neitzel assist, exploit it.
The match up the Spartans like most is often in the paint. Not surprising, surely, given that Paul Davis is one of the best players in the country. His rebounding can only be termed dominant, he scores a lot of points, and he scores them very efficiently. (Why don't I ever hear Davis's name in national POY talk? Just asking!) Illinois hasn't yet had to play the level of post defense that they will need to play tonight. The good news for Illini fans is Bruce Weber has more depth in his frontcourt than Illinois has had in years--that will help the home team tonight.
James Augustine is to Paul Davis roughly what Michigan State was to Illinois last year: tremendously talented and performing at an extremely high level, yet a bit overlooked. While Davis is indisputably a better rebounder (duh--Davis is a better rebounder than every player in the Big Ten) and a more potent scoring threat, Augustine is still a crucial element in the Illini's success. Good things tend to happen for Illinois when he gets touches. Augustine's an excellent passer, startlingly quick for a player his size, and makes point-guard quality decisions within Bruce Weber's motion offense.
But there'll be plenty to watch outside the paint as well. I'll be interested to see who Brian Randle guards (probably Mo Ager). Illinois fans think Randle is a tremendous talent on D--both long and quick--but it's been hard to know for sure given the Illini's schedule thus far. (Randle made Thomas Gardner look really bad in the Missouri game, this much we know.) That will leave Rich McBride on whomever Randle's not guarding (maybe Shannon Brown, who's hitting 44 percent of his threes).
And, of course, the match up between Neitzel and Dee Brown promises to be entertaining. These two have only played against each other once, last February, and Neitzel's come a long way since then. But then Brown's come a long way since November: after a very rocky start running the point, Brown's looked much more comfortable of late. His assists were plentiful even early but in recent games his turnovers are down and his shooting's improved. Between Brown, McBride and freshman PPWS sensation Jamar Smith, Illinois has (Wichita State notwithstanding) usually been able to hit enough threes to get the job done.
Bruce Weber's team has done very well this year holding on to the ball, as have Michigan State's opponents on the whole. Those mutually reinforcing tendencies suggest the Illini are likely to give the Spartans very few TOs tonight. If the home team is hitting their shots, then, State's offense will called upon to be as outstanding as they've been all year. On the other hand, if Illinois is firing blanks, the pressure will be on the Illini D to be as strong against Final Four-caliber competition as they've been against their non-conference foes.
Let's tip it off.
Links
Tom Izzo predicts a fast pace: "They're playing a little better than we are defensively right now, and I guarantee you both teams are going to run." Izzo also offers the highest praise to his veteran core of Davis, Ager, and Brown: "They want to win (a championship) more than I do."...Shannon Brown says he likes the tough early schedule that the Big Ten gave the Spartans: "We're just gonna come out and we're gonna fight."...Possibly the best five-word description of Assembly Hall I've yet seen, courtesy of the Lansing State Journal's Joe Rexrode: "Dark, orange and painfully loud."
Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper says never mind its early arrival, this game is a heavyweight bout: "Believe me: Michigan State, Indiana and Illinois all think they’re going to win the Big Ten and make it to the Final Four. That just ratchets up the intensity because nobody wants to lose early, especially when going head-to-head with another of the top three contenders." Rich McBride says how well Illinois plays D against Michigan State's talented scorers will be the key to the game: "We just have to try to keep them in front of us. Shannon and Ager are great players, but if we stick to what we've been doing and trust each other, we should be OK." Bruce Weber says amen to that. "Ager is a quick-up shooter. You have to be there every time he comes off a screen." Neil Milbert of the Chicago Tribune explains Illinois' surprising success (here) and looks at their three near-losses (here). Dee Brown still has an Izzone-created sign that Luther Head found in the Breslin Center after last year's game. It reads: "S. BROWN OWNS D. BROWN." (This just in: Dee Brown and Shannon Brown were high school teammates! Who knew!)
BONUS year-in-pictures note! Illinois fans looking for an outstanding photographic retrospective of last year's historic season can link here and enjoy a spectacle that is at once celebratory and yet admirably even-handed (including as it does images of Matt Sylvester and the damage done).
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern beat Purdue 66-53 last night in Evanston in a very slow game. Both teams shot quite well (hitting a combined 15-of-36 threes--including, go figure, a 3-of-5 from Matt Kiefer) but the Boilers coughed up 19 turnovers, which, in a game with only 55 possessions, is even worse than it sounds. In effect, Matt Painter's team gave away one out of every three possessions. Vedran Vukusic led the Wildcats with 28 points, only six of which, surprisingly, came from threes. Tim Doyle added a career-high 20. Purdue freshman Nate Minnoy suffered a knee injury just three minutes into the game and did not return. No word yet on the extent of his injury. (Ye gods. Painter's due for a good break. Several, in fact.) (Box score.)
Wisconsin plays Iowa tonight in Madison. Canonical blogger Ryan Kobliska has, thank goodness, ended his holiday hiatus just in time to give us a customarily outstanding preview--make haste! As for MSM fare....Hawkeye coach Steve Alford says the Badgers' height will be a challenge: "They are extremely big. They start big; their bench is big. So we've got to do a good job on the boards. We can't be giving them second shots. They are hard enough to guard the way it is." But Bo Ryan says his team's height is young: "Iowa has a lot more experience (than Wisconsin) on the floor from last year." As for his own squad: "All you can do is give them the opportunities in practice and in games to become more accustomed to what is going on in a system and then you hope when it comes game time that they mimic that." More on the Badger bench here.
Ohio State plays Penn State in Columbus tonight. PSU's Geary Claxton says he and his mates know what they're up against on the road in the Big Ten. "It's a rough league. You have to keep your heads in it and just play your game. We have to work as a team to get through it."
Minnesota is battling the flu bug and Dan Monson is fretful: "It's definitely contagious." The Gophers open Big Ten play Saturday at home against Northwestern.
Yay conference!
In one of his periodic stellar contributions to ESPN.com, Jeff Shelman says the Big Ten is back, baybee!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Treachery most foul?
Wonk,
Thanks for the wonderful blog. I read it daily. I selfishly hope I don't lose you to ESPN or some other MSM outlet like I did with Kyle and Ken. Can't say I blame them, though.
I wasn't able to see the Michigan/Indiana game, but from the box score it seemed the biggest discrepancy was the foul shooting. Indiana took 25 FTs and Michigan took five! The Wolverines were outscored by 12 at the line and lost by seven. I guess that's how you manage to lose a game even though you outrebounded your opponent by 11 and took and made more FGs.
Sure, Michigan's 22 turnovers are ugly, but they made up for that by grabbing extra possessions on the offensive glass (17 of 36 possible). Again, I didn't see the game, but I would think a Michigan fan (I am not one) may have had something to say about the officiating. Was this noticeable during the game?
Thanks and keep up the good work.
Matt T.
This observer, for one, didn't see injustices that were more numerous or egregious than the norm. Remember that, blessed as they are with depth in the frontcourt, Michigan is constitutionally less foul-averse than your garden variety squad. And 11 of those Hoosier FTAs were from Killingsworth alone. As for Wolverine FTAs, well, maybe if Sims had recorded more than four FGAs there would have been some.
By the way, your reference to 17 of a possible 36 offensive boards leads me to geek a little on the salacious and exciting sweeps-weeks topic of box scores. Every now and then I hear from an alert reader who says they've done some micro-wonking on their own but that their PPP numbers aren't the same as mine. My message to them is: insist on official box scores, like this one for the Michigan-Indiana game. The key difference between an official box score and one like this is as follows: official box scores take "team rebounds" (those not credited to an individual player) and break them down into offensive and defensive boards. So we learn that the Wolverines actually had 19 orebs out of a possible 38.
Anyway, thanks for the kind words, Matt. ¶ 6:37 AM
Wednesday, January 04, 2006
Hoosiers grab sole possession of first place...until tonight
Indiana beat Michigan 70-63 in Bloomington last night. This game was tied at 24 at halftime and where the admirably positive and laudably glass-half-full announcers working the game for ESPN Full Court saw "defensive intensity" and "effort," I, for one, saw "unforced turnovers," "no offensive execution whatsoever," and "Edvard Munch-level horrific shooting." You make the call....
More mighty than his stats would indicate
Who knows but that the Wolverines would have struggled in any case but I will say this: taking Lester Abram off the court (he missed the game due to a sprained toe) reduces Tommy Amaker's scoring options to Courtney Sims, Daniel Horton, and Dion Harris. Sims (five points and one board in 19 minutes last night) and Harris (19 points on 16 FGAs) each have a habit of disappearing for long stretches--a habit Horton would, at times, be well advised to emulate (20 points on 17 FGAs). Facing an opponent whose tallest player was, for most of the night, 6-8, the Wolverines showed zero interest in getting the ball inside to the 6-11 Sims (who himself showed little inclination to demand the ball).
Just what is a "front line," anyway?
The talk of Marco Killingsworth, D.J. White, and Robert Vaden comprising the Big Ten's "best front line" is true enough (all three will likely earn some form of All-Big Ten recognition, whether honorable mention or better) but also somewhat misleading. The minutes that these three play together are very few (about ten last night by my count) and may continue to be, even after White "gets his wind back." I think Mike Davis simply prefers the speed and spacing of the 1-4 sets. He should--they work. I wouldn't be surprised, then, to see White playing Paul Davis-style surprisingly scanty minutes this season (say, mid-20s).
BONUS scouting note for future IU opponents!
Here's what you'll see. Dribble left, then come back right with the left hand. Last night, at least, Killingsworth executed this move time and time again with the diligent faithfulness of a high-school baller who'd just been taught his first post move. So here's what you do. Wait until he starts his move (because the big guy makes smart choices on his passes when the double-team comes right away). Then bring the double in behind him as he goes left and sit on his right shoulder. (Granted, the Hoosiers make this tough by spacing the other four players practically out to half-court.)
BONUS scouting note for future Wolverine opponents!
Give the ball to whoever's guarded by freshman Jevohn Shepherd. Wonk doesn't care what that player's PPWS says, if they're injured, or if they're an elderly alum in the front row. If Shepherd's on him, give him the ball. This afternoon in Ann Arbor, a Michigan assistant will draw Shepherd aside and patiently go over the tape of Roderick Wilmont's consecutive threes at roughly the nine minute mark of the second half. Guarding the free throw line on consecutive possessions when the ball is going from the post to the arc is a novel defensive strategy, to say the least. (Let it be said, however, that the free throw line was indeed held scoreless.)
Less mighty than his stats would indicate
By the way, that thud you just heard was Courtney Sims officially falling off the All-Wonk Team. (The guy's a one-man assault on the very concept of stats: he looks good on paper because he stockpiles inordinately beautiful numbers against inferior opponents.) I'll work up a 2.0 All-Wonk 'ere long here--let me know who you think should replace Sims. Remember: need not be a big--we're looking for the five best players. All are welcome.
Lobbying for a rule change
You should get credit for a double-double when you score eight points and haul in 21 rebounds, as did Michigan's Graham Brown last night. In fact, Brown should be allowed the option of converting two of his boards into points and getting a 10-19 dub-dub. Just a thought. (Actually, if blocked shots--meaning your own attempts being blocked--were a category, Brown was close to the fabled tri-dub.)
Etc. Vaden led the Hoosiers with 17 points, all of them after halftime: "In the second half, I just decided to attack the basket more."...Hoosier guard A.J. Ratliff suffered a sprained ankle and will likely sit out the next few games....Newly-eligible Wolverine big man Brent Petway saw his first action of the season last night: three fouls, two points and one board in eight minutes....Michigan was simply unstoppable on the offensive boards, rebounding fully half of their misses, but it mattered not one whit because they gave away 22 turnovers: "We really did a horrendous job of taking care of the basketball," Amaker said....The Wolverines have now lost nine straight to Indiana. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern plays Purdue in Evanston tonight and half the starters will be freshmen. Other Big Ten coaches say nice things about Boiler coach Matt Painter here.
Illinois plays Michigan State tomorrow night in Champaign (ESPN2, 9 ET). Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper throws some love Tom Izzo's way: "He’s honest, he’s sincere, he’s wonderful for the league and his teams always play hard. If you beat Michigan State, you’ve done something significant." For his part Izzo says he's glad Matt Trannon is healthy and ready to go tomorrow night: "What we were missing with Trannon out was that our defense wasn't as good."...Bruce Weber says his team will try to limit the Spartans' transition points tomorrow night and instead "make them play half-court." Weber also says he wishes he had more time to prepare for State: "I don’t really love playing Michigan State this early, but I sure am happy it’s at home."...The Illini have received a verbal commitment from seven-foot high school baller Mike Tisdale of Riverton, IL. Tisdale joins a 2007 recruiting class that already includes Eric Gordon of Indianapolis and Bill Cole of Peoria. Fellow lanky product of Sangamon County Mike Tisdale, Wonk salutes you!
Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he's not bothered by increasingly prevalent talk that as many as seven (implicitly non-Minnesota) Big Ten teams can make the tournament: "When you listen to people talk, Minnesota isn't mentioned. We're not in that level yet and I think it's probably rightfully so." Coach Monson may not mind but blogger Bob Wothe over at Golden Gopher Hoops isn't quite so sanguine: he thinks the Gophers might be the Rodney Dangerfield of the Big Ten--make haste!
Get your Big Ten previews here
From Susan Harman of the Iowa City Press-Citizen (link), Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal (link), and Jesse Osborne of the Wisconsin State Journal (link).
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Egad! Readers going through Wonk's archives? Is this allowed?
Hello, Wonk,
As I wait expectantly for your state of the team addresses, I took the time to check out some of your past comments.
On Friday, Nov. 12, 2004, when describing your preseason all-head case team, you wrote:
Echoing, if perhaps not equaling, their trip to the Final Four the year after the NBA-focused Kirk Haston left, Indiana will improve markedly the first year that the NBA-focused Bracey Wright is gone, whenever that may be, as the chemistry improves and the offense branches out from its single-dimension feed-Wright focus.
While it’s early in the season, that looks like a prediction that you should keep tabs on for an eventual (or current) pat on the back, at least if Indiana continues to play at the same level of offensive efficiency against Big Ten defenses.
Ryan M.
Hey, offensive efficiency schmoffensive efficiency--IU recorded a meager 1.01 points per possession last night and got the W. Aye, that's the stat--that number under the "W" column in the standings.
Thanks for the archive dive, Ryan! ¶ 6:41 AM
Indiana beat Michigan 70-63 in Bloomington last night. This game was tied at 24 at halftime and where the admirably positive and laudably glass-half-full announcers working the game for ESPN Full Court saw "defensive intensity" and "effort," I, for one, saw "unforced turnovers," "no offensive execution whatsoever," and "Edvard Munch-level horrific shooting." You make the call....
More mighty than his stats would indicate
Who knows but that the Wolverines would have struggled in any case but I will say this: taking Lester Abram off the court (he missed the game due to a sprained toe) reduces Tommy Amaker's scoring options to Courtney Sims, Daniel Horton, and Dion Harris. Sims (five points and one board in 19 minutes last night) and Harris (19 points on 16 FGAs) each have a habit of disappearing for long stretches--a habit Horton would, at times, be well advised to emulate (20 points on 17 FGAs). Facing an opponent whose tallest player was, for most of the night, 6-8, the Wolverines showed zero interest in getting the ball inside to the 6-11 Sims (who himself showed little inclination to demand the ball).
Just what is a "front line," anyway?
The talk of Marco Killingsworth, D.J. White, and Robert Vaden comprising the Big Ten's "best front line" is true enough (all three will likely earn some form of All-Big Ten recognition, whether honorable mention or better) but also somewhat misleading. The minutes that these three play together are very few (about ten last night by my count) and may continue to be, even after White "gets his wind back." I think Mike Davis simply prefers the speed and spacing of the 1-4 sets. He should--they work. I wouldn't be surprised, then, to see White playing Paul Davis-style surprisingly scanty minutes this season (say, mid-20s).
BONUS scouting note for future IU opponents!
Here's what you'll see. Dribble left, then come back right with the left hand. Last night, at least, Killingsworth executed this move time and time again with the diligent faithfulness of a high-school baller who'd just been taught his first post move. So here's what you do. Wait until he starts his move (because the big guy makes smart choices on his passes when the double-team comes right away). Then bring the double in behind him as he goes left and sit on his right shoulder. (Granted, the Hoosiers make this tough by spacing the other four players practically out to half-court.)
BONUS scouting note for future Wolverine opponents!
Give the ball to whoever's guarded by freshman Jevohn Shepherd. Wonk doesn't care what that player's PPWS says, if they're injured, or if they're an elderly alum in the front row. If Shepherd's on him, give him the ball. This afternoon in Ann Arbor, a Michigan assistant will draw Shepherd aside and patiently go over the tape of Roderick Wilmont's consecutive threes at roughly the nine minute mark of the second half. Guarding the free throw line on consecutive possessions when the ball is going from the post to the arc is a novel defensive strategy, to say the least. (Let it be said, however, that the free throw line was indeed held scoreless.)
Less mighty than his stats would indicate
By the way, that thud you just heard was Courtney Sims officially falling off the All-Wonk Team. (The guy's a one-man assault on the very concept of stats: he looks good on paper because he stockpiles inordinately beautiful numbers against inferior opponents.) I'll work up a 2.0 All-Wonk 'ere long here--let me know who you think should replace Sims. Remember: need not be a big--we're looking for the five best players. All are welcome.
Lobbying for a rule change
You should get credit for a double-double when you score eight points and haul in 21 rebounds, as did Michigan's Graham Brown last night. In fact, Brown should be allowed the option of converting two of his boards into points and getting a 10-19 dub-dub. Just a thought. (Actually, if blocked shots--meaning your own attempts being blocked--were a category, Brown was close to the fabled tri-dub.)
Etc. Vaden led the Hoosiers with 17 points, all of them after halftime: "In the second half, I just decided to attack the basket more."...Hoosier guard A.J. Ratliff suffered a sprained ankle and will likely sit out the next few games....Newly-eligible Wolverine big man Brent Petway saw his first action of the season last night: three fouls, two points and one board in eight minutes....Michigan was simply unstoppable on the offensive boards, rebounding fully half of their misses, but it mattered not one whit because they gave away 22 turnovers: "We really did a horrendous job of taking care of the basketball," Amaker said....The Wolverines have now lost nine straight to Indiana. (Box score.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Northwestern plays Purdue in Evanston tonight and half the starters will be freshmen. Other Big Ten coaches say nice things about Boiler coach Matt Painter here.
Illinois plays Michigan State tomorrow night in Champaign (ESPN2, 9 ET). Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper throws some love Tom Izzo's way: "He’s honest, he’s sincere, he’s wonderful for the league and his teams always play hard. If you beat Michigan State, you’ve done something significant." For his part Izzo says he's glad Matt Trannon is healthy and ready to go tomorrow night: "What we were missing with Trannon out was that our defense wasn't as good."...Bruce Weber says his team will try to limit the Spartans' transition points tomorrow night and instead "make them play half-court." Weber also says he wishes he had more time to prepare for State: "I don’t really love playing Michigan State this early, but I sure am happy it’s at home."...The Illini have received a verbal commitment from seven-foot high school baller Mike Tisdale of Riverton, IL. Tisdale joins a 2007 recruiting class that already includes Eric Gordon of Indianapolis and Bill Cole of Peoria. Fellow lanky product of Sangamon County Mike Tisdale, Wonk salutes you!
Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he's not bothered by increasingly prevalent talk that as many as seven (implicitly non-Minnesota) Big Ten teams can make the tournament: "When you listen to people talk, Minnesota isn't mentioned. We're not in that level yet and I think it's probably rightfully so." Coach Monson may not mind but blogger Bob Wothe over at Golden Gopher Hoops isn't quite so sanguine: he thinks the Gophers might be the Rodney Dangerfield of the Big Ten--make haste!
Get your Big Ten previews here
From Susan Harman of the Iowa City Press-Citizen (link), Joe Rexrode of the Lansing State Journal (link), and Jesse Osborne of the Wisconsin State Journal (link).
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Egad! Readers going through Wonk's archives? Is this allowed?
Hello, Wonk,
As I wait expectantly for your state of the team addresses, I took the time to check out some of your past comments.
On Friday, Nov. 12, 2004, when describing your preseason all-head case team, you wrote:
Echoing, if perhaps not equaling, their trip to the Final Four the year after the NBA-focused Kirk Haston left, Indiana will improve markedly the first year that the NBA-focused Bracey Wright is gone, whenever that may be, as the chemistry improves and the offense branches out from its single-dimension feed-Wright focus.
While it’s early in the season, that looks like a prediction that you should keep tabs on for an eventual (or current) pat on the back, at least if Indiana continues to play at the same level of offensive efficiency against Big Ten defenses.
Ryan M.
Hey, offensive efficiency schmoffensive efficiency--IU recorded a meager 1.01 points per possession last night and got the W. Aye, that's the stat--that number under the "W" column in the standings.
Thanks for the archive dive, Ryan! ¶ 6:41 AM
Tuesday, January 03, 2006
Let the collisions begin!
The conference season is here at last and the first week alone features some great games (Michigan State at Illinois, Iowa at Wisconsin, Ohio State at Indiana, Michigan State at Wisconsin, etc., etc.). Finally. Questions answered, doubts dispelled, pretenders exposed, cliches overused....
And so I want to kick off the festivities with some thoughts on everyone's preseason pick to win this thing. (State of the Team addresses for everybody, originally scheduled for today, now coming this week.)
No clear favorite
As recently as six weeks ago--which is to say, even after the Hawaii debacle--I was stating for the record that Michigan State was the team to beat in the Big Ten. Hardly a bold assertion, right? The Spartans return four starters from last year's Final Four team. How could they not be the favorite?
We've since learned the answer to that question. State's defense has been far too weak for this team to be considered a "clear favorite." They may be right there among the favorites--I in fact think they are--but they no longer merit the singular noun, despite what you may hear from hoops observers merely counting the days since the last loss.
The profusion of points scored by Spartan opponents is not, as some would have you believe, merely an artifact of fast-paced games (which, by the way, aren't all that fast) or too many overtime periods. On the contrary, on a per-possession basis, MSU outscores its opponents by only 0.15 points--incredible, given that theirs is the best offense in the Big Ten.
This much we know simply from plain old boring Kevin Bacon Apollo 13 facts: "I can add." And, while it's true that not every hoops writer has yet made it even this far, many Michigan State fans most certainly have. I hear from them daily. And in the face of these numbers, Spartan fans tend to tell me that everything's going to be alright anyway, for some or all of the following reasons:
1. MSU's playing better of late.
2. Matt Trannon will soon be playing quality minutes--and that helps the D.
3. Tom Izzo's teams always improve as the year goes on.
As a fretful Big Ten homer, my worry about these assertions doesn't concern their descriptive accuracy. (For the record: (1) is incontestably true; (2) is, in my humble estimation, equally so; and (3) is up for grabs: State looked very much improved in beating Duke and Kentucky last March and I rejoiced accordingly. It's also true, however, that I was baffled by the Spartans losing to Iowa just a couple weeks earlier.)
No, my discomfort with these normative claims centers on their prescriptive value. All of the above can be true and Michigan State can still get bounced from the NCAA tournament the first weekend. Bounced by, say, another team that also's been playing better of late; that also has a key contributor back in the lineup; and that also has improved as the year has progressed. The team you play in mid- or (especially) late-March doesn't care if you're better than you used to be. They only care if you're better than they are.
So close thy normative and open thy comparative. Meet Indiana.
A favorite's not a favorite just because everyone--including me--said so two months ago....
Again, Michigan State's outscoring opponents by 0.15 points per possession. As it happens they've done so against the 153rd toughest schedule in the country. Meanwhile Indiana's outscored their foes by 0.25 points per possession, playing the nation's 47th most difficult schedule. State's has been the conference's best offense and--granted, by mere hundredths of a point--its least formidable defense. The Hoosiers' has been the Big Ten's second-best offense and its third-best defense. MSU's done what they've done without Trannon. IU's done what they've done without D.J. White.
Someone, please: remind me again why Michigan State is "the clear favorite" here?
Mind you, I'm not proclaiming on any alleged immutable destiny where the Spartans are concerned. We all saw a team rally from a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS not so very long ago despite the uncomfortable little fact that it'd never been done before. So allow me to be unmistakably clear on what I am saying. Recall if you will the apposite scene from Gone with the Wind and picture me as backlit in dramatic silhouette as I make this Scarlett O'Hara-style vow on the matter:
As Frank McGuire is my witness and barring only a 2004 Red Sox-level miracle, Michigan State won't get to Indianapolis playing the way they've played thus far. If they continue to play at this level they will be merely this year's Wake Forest: superb on offense and blessed with NBA-level talent yet defensively hapless and, in the end, sitting at home watching the Final Four.
State's defensive concerns consist in large measure of two items:
1. Perimeter D.
Just 14 games into his sophomore year, Drew Neitzel is already a masterful point guard. As quick with the ball as his blazing-fast teammates are without it (and that, friends, is saying something), Neitzel's cut down on his turnovers and improved his outside shooting (and thus his scoring efficiency) markedly even as he's continued to manufacture assists at the prodigious rate he displayed as a precocious freshman. He is in fact the best point guard in the Big Ten--on offense.
But on defense Neitzel is less impressive. Opposing teams face almost no pressure on the ball and indeed trigger their offensive sets smoothly and wholly at the tempo of their own choosing. Granted, this is not news--Izzo even pulled Neitzel from the Iowa game in the Big Ten tournament last year in what he frankly admitted afterward had been an attempt to get some perimeter D on the floor. And the coach's repeated frets about "lack of backcourt depth" can perhaps be read as Izzo-speak for: this year there's no non-freshman defensive replacement for Neitzel. But then that's part of what I love about hoops: simply being one of the best offensive players in the conference isn't enough. (A little like asking Reggie Bush to work on his pass rushing.)
To help his team attain the expectations being placed on it by others, Neitzel must improve defensively.
2. Defensive rebounding.
Here's a paradox for you: MSU's defensive rebounding is an area of concern despite the fact that (or even because) it's far and away the defensive strength of this team. Indeed, in
The conference season is here at last and the first week alone features some great games (Michigan State at Illinois, Iowa at Wisconsin, Ohio State at Indiana, Michigan State at Wisconsin, etc., etc.). Finally. Questions answered, doubts dispelled, pretenders exposed, cliches overused....
And so I want to kick off the festivities with some thoughts on everyone's preseason pick to win this thing. (State of the Team addresses for everybody, originally scheduled for today, now coming this week.)
No clear favorite
As recently as six weeks ago--which is to say, even after the Hawaii debacle--I was stating for the record that Michigan State was the team to beat in the Big Ten. Hardly a bold assertion, right? The Spartans return four starters from last year's Final Four team. How could they not be the favorite?
We've since learned the answer to that question. State's defense has been far too weak for this team to be considered a "clear favorite." They may be right there among the favorites--I in fact think they are--but they no longer merit the singular noun, despite what you may hear from hoops observers merely counting the days since the last loss.
The profusion of points scored by Spartan opponents is not, as some would have you believe, merely an artifact of fast-paced games (which, by the way, aren't all that fast) or too many overtime periods. On the contrary, on a per-possession basis, MSU outscores its opponents by only 0.15 points--incredible, given that theirs is the best offense in the Big Ten.
This much we know simply from plain old boring Kevin Bacon Apollo 13 facts: "I can add." And, while it's true that not every hoops writer has yet made it even this far, many Michigan State fans most certainly have. I hear from them daily. And in the face of these numbers, Spartan fans tend to tell me that everything's going to be alright anyway, for some or all of the following reasons:
1. MSU's playing better of late.
2. Matt Trannon will soon be playing quality minutes--and that helps the D.
3. Tom Izzo's teams always improve as the year goes on.
As a fretful Big Ten homer, my worry about these assertions doesn't concern their descriptive accuracy. (For the record: (1) is incontestably true; (2) is, in my humble estimation, equally so; and (3) is up for grabs: State looked very much improved in beating Duke and Kentucky last March and I rejoiced accordingly. It's also true, however, that I was baffled by the Spartans losing to Iowa just a couple weeks earlier.)
No, my discomfort with these normative claims centers on their prescriptive value. All of the above can be true and Michigan State can still get bounced from the NCAA tournament the first weekend. Bounced by, say, another team that also's been playing better of late; that also has a key contributor back in the lineup; and that also has improved as the year has progressed. The team you play in mid- or (especially) late-March doesn't care if you're better than you used to be. They only care if you're better than they are.
So close thy normative and open thy comparative. Meet Indiana.
A favorite's not a favorite just because everyone--including me--said so two months ago....
Again, Michigan State's outscoring opponents by 0.15 points per possession. As it happens they've done so against the 153rd toughest schedule in the country. Meanwhile Indiana's outscored their foes by 0.25 points per possession, playing the nation's 47th most difficult schedule. State's has been the conference's best offense and--granted, by mere hundredths of a point--its least formidable defense. The Hoosiers' has been the Big Ten's second-best offense and its third-best defense. MSU's done what they've done without Trannon. IU's done what they've done without D.J. White.
Someone, please: remind me again why Michigan State is "the clear favorite" here?
Mind you, I'm not proclaiming on any alleged immutable destiny where the Spartans are concerned. We all saw a team rally from a 3-0 deficit in the ALCS not so very long ago despite the uncomfortable little fact that it'd never been done before. So allow me to be unmistakably clear on what I am saying. Recall if you will the apposite scene from Gone with the Wind and picture me as backlit in dramatic silhouette as I make this Scarlett O'Hara-style vow on the matter:
As Frank McGuire is my witness and barring only a 2004 Red Sox-level miracle, Michigan State won't get to Indianapolis playing the way they've played thus far. If they continue to play at this level they will be merely this year's Wake Forest: superb on offense and blessed with NBA-level talent yet defensively hapless and, in the end, sitting at home watching the Final Four.
State's defensive concerns consist in large measure of two items:
1. Perimeter D.
Just 14 games into his sophomore year, Drew Neitzel is already a masterful point guard. As quick with the ball as his blazing-fast teammates are without it (and that, friends, is saying something), Neitzel's cut down on his turnovers and improved his outside shooting (and thus his scoring efficiency) markedly even as he's continued to manufacture assists at the prodigious rate he displayed as a precocious freshman. He is in fact the best point guard in the Big Ten--on offense.
But on defense Neitzel is less impressive. Opposing teams face almost no pressure on the ball and indeed trigger their offensive sets smoothly and wholly at the tempo of their own choosing. Granted, this is not news--Izzo even pulled Neitzel from the Iowa game in the Big Ten tournament last year in what he frankly admitted afterward had been an attempt to get some perimeter D on the floor. And the coach's repeated frets about "lack of backcourt depth" can perhaps be read as Izzo-speak for: this year there's no non-freshman defensive replacement for Neitzel. But then that's part of what I love about hoops: simply being one of the best offensive players in the conference isn't enough. (A little like asking Reggie Bush to work on his pass rushing.)
To help his team attain the expectations being placed on it by others, Neitzel must improve defensively.
2. Defensive rebounding.
Here's a paradox for you: MSU's defensive rebounding is an area of concern despite the fact that (or even because) it's far and away the defensive strength of this team. Indeed, in