Thursday, November 30, 2006
Thank you, ESPN: for the game and for the math
Thank you for putting together this contrived made-for-TV ACC-Big Ten Challenge. It was worth it to see the outstanding North Carolina-Ohio State game last night, a contest won by the Heels 98-89.
Sure, "November" and "classic" are fundamentally irreconcilable terms in college hoops. Still, that was the best November game I've seen in a very long while. Not only was it a spectacular display of young talent, it was instructive. It taught us the following bit of hoops math:
(North Carolina - turnovers) > (Ohio State - Greg Oden)
In fact, last night proceeded almost exactly according to form, with one decisive exception. The Buckeyes, though pummeled on the boards and deficient in free throws, devoted 40 percent of their shots to threes, shot better from the field than North Carolina, and didn't turn the ball over. It's all Matta-ball, really.
Only thing: the Heels didn't turn the ball over either, giving Ohio State just 11 TOs in a 76-possession game. The book says that number should have been almost twice as high. (That same book says Mike Conley should have recorded three or so steals in 27 minutes. He had none.) Make no mistake: North Carolina minus turnovers is scary-good. They already make shots and they already attack the offensive glass. The only question is how many bites they get at the apple.
So if you're a fan of up-tempo offensive efficiency, it doesn't get any better than Carolina in the second half last night. For the record, here are the numbers from after the intermission: 38 possessions, 54 points, 1.42 points per possession. (And that was with eight missed free throws in the second half. Incredible.)
Tyler Hansbrough posted a 21-14 dub-dub for the Heels and the most impressive part of that performance by far is the 14. Though not as much of a monster on the boards as commonly believed, Hansbrough was unquestionably a monster on the boards last night. (Only quibble: he's got that Greg Brunner thing going on where he takes every offensive rebound as an open invitation to immediately fling himself like a missile into the nearest stationary defender. Then the crowd is outraged if no foul is called on the defense.) And Ty Lawson and Bobby Frasor combined for eight assists and zero turnovers in 40 minutes--nice ratio, that.
That being said, the other team on the floor last night was pretty fair as well. Ron Lewis had a night for the ages, obviously: 30 points in notably efficient style (PPWS for the evening: 1.52). And in the first half the Buckeyes--sharing the ball, attacking relentlessly, hitting shots--looked so much like Illinois against Wake Forest in November 2004 it was eerie. (Look, I saw savory point-guard-level assists last night from Daequan Cook and David Lighty. David Lighty!) Only these Buckeyes are younger than that Illini team was, and they were doing it last night on the home court of one of the best five teams in the nation.
Mike Conley, in the first road game of his college career, imposed his offense's will upon Carolina in the first half with the unnervingly calm mastery of a Deron Williams. (And I mean Deron Williams now--Conley's so far ahead of where Williams was at a comparable point it's mind-bending.) Ohio State actually suffered on offense when Conley came out of the game with his second foul. He is young but he is already the best point guard in the Big Ten. Even more impressive, he's the best point guard on his own team.
So the question now becomes:
Ohio State + Greg Oden = ?
(Box score.)
BONUS ACC kudo! Thank the hoops gods that Ty Lawson landed in the capable velocity-loving hands of Roy Williams. If he were in the Big Ten (or for that matter in Durham or just about anywhere but Chapel Hill) we'd be hearing much blather from his coach right now about how the freshman has to learn to play at the right speed, stay under control, etc. Nonsense. Basketball's a simple game: get to the rim. Williams acknowledges that and thus has the following incredibly complex technical directive for his point guard: go. I loved that about Williams when he was at Kansas and I loved it last night.
On "averaging 100 possessions per game." Yeah, I heard it too. Twice last night before the under-12 timeout in the first half the non-Vitale ESPN talent covering the game said, with due insider gravitas, that Roy Williams had told them he wants North Carolina to average 100 possessions per game. Which would be rather remarkable in that the fastest team in the country last year, Campbell, averaged about 78 possessions per game.
Williams, of course, was speaking with hyperbole aforethought. The ESPN talent, apparently, didn't know that.
Coaches and writers liked the game too
I'm surprised at how surprised the commentariat is this morning at Ohio State's performance. (Glad I bought my Buckeye stock early.)
Andy Katz says that when Oden joins the fun, "the Buckeyes will join North Carolina, Florida, Kansas, UCLA and Pitt as one of the few favorites to win the national championship." Jeff Goodman says with Oden OSU has "a chance to be dominant and distance themselves from the pack."
Thad Matta enjoyed the game: "That to me is college basketball right there, that environment, the plays that were made, the blocked shots, the hustle, the tipped passes. That was exciting." Roy Williams agreed: "Even as a coach, you sit there and marvel at the level that kids are playing at offensively."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Congratulations to the ACC, the clear winner (8-3) in a Challenge where two of the Big Ten's three victories were two-point home wins....
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Boston College beat Michigan State 65-58 last night in Boston. The Eagles deployed a 2-2-1 zone with notable success and led a strangely listless (or merely befuddled) Spartan team by 17 with seven minutes to go before Tom Izzo's men rallied to make it respectable. Jared Dudley needed only 13 shots from the field to score 30 points. And Dudley was indeed the difference in a game that was otherwise equal across the board: all players not named "Dudley" or "Goran Suton" (18 points) shot poorly and both teams turned the ball over....Izzo says he feels "bizarre, or strange, about the effort-related things we're not doing....We didn't get enough out of [Marquise Gray]." Izzo also had praise for Dudley and a thought for Raymar Morgan: "I think, someday Morgan could be in that mold a little bit but, tonight, the senior schooled the rookie." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says last night the Spartans faced "the reality of a rebuilding season." (Box score.)
Tarrance Crump hit a runner in the lane with 1.2 seconds left as Purdue beat Virginia 61-59 in West Lafayette last night. Cavaliers coach Dave Leitao sounded disappointed that the game-winner came on a play he saw coming ahead of time: "Crump averages only one assist per game. I know when he comes off screens and he puts his head down, he's looking to score." Earlier in the evening Gordon Watt officially woke up Mackey Arena after a two-or-so-year slumber with a drive and dunk that was notably spectacular. Laudably aggressive dunkmeister Gordon Watt, Wonk salutes you!...Leitao said he knew the Boilers would be tough: "As I expected to happen, the Purdue team that I saw in Maui that plays their tail off on both ends of the floor played very hard tonight." Carl Landry led his team with 19 points. (Box score.)
Virginia Tech beat Iowa 69-65 last night in Blacksburg, a game in which Adam Haluska left the floor in the final minute with an apparent ankle injury--no word yet on his status. Eerily tracking, it would seem, the simultaneous game between Michigan State and Boston College, the Hawkeyes trailed by 16 inside of seven minutes but made things interesting at the end. An odd spate of late fouling from the Hokies certainly didn't hurt Iowa's cause. (This morning's Iowa City Press-Citizen puts it well: "Virginia Tech tried everything it could to hand Iowa a precious road victory in the final 10 minutes, but the Hawkeyes refused the offer.") Tech didn't shoot as well from the floor as the Hawks but it mattered not one whit as Steve Alford's men chipped in with 19 turnovers in a 65-possession game. Tony Freeman alone coughed up five Hokie gifts in 21 minutes. Before his apparent injury Haluska led Iowa in minutes (39), shots (17), and points (24). (Box score.)
Clemson beat Minnesota 90-68 in Minneapolis last night. This was actually a game for the first 15 minutes but over the final 25 the Gophers were on the short end of a 63-41 run by the Tigers. Minnesota's best shooting of the year by far was cancelled out entirely by the talismanic number 24: as in Gopher turnovers and, even more remarkable, Clemson offensive rebounds (out of 41 chances). Brandon Smith had four defensive rebounds for Minnesota--no other Gopher had more than two. "We did not play with the passion or energy we need to make ourselves the team we need to be," Dan Monson said afterward. Clemson coach Oliver Purnell was more diplomatic: "Our team strengths were their weaknesses. It wasn't a good matchup." Dan Coleman led the home squad with 18 points. (Box score.)
In addition to typing words, I can occasionally speak them....
I'll be talking hoops with Steve "The Homer" True on Milwaukee's ESPN Radio this evening around 6:20 ET. Tune in and listen to me wing it.
COMING tomorrow!
The first of this year's promised occasional pro bono wonking outside the Big Ten....
They're undefeated! They're a mid-major! Their home games are within walking distance of my house! (A key point in their favor.) So just how good is Butler really?
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The fabulous Nate D. Tobacco Road tour continues!
Alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate D. is still in Carolina taking in games. Yesterday he filed his report on Indiana-Duke. Today it's Carolina-OSU....
Great game tonight--completely the opposite from from last night.
OSU shocked UNC a little in the first half with their style. I was amazed with Conley's ability to get into the lane and score or dish for an open three. And Cook is a freak of nature--his dunk in the first half silenced the crowd.
UNC came out in the second half with a 6-0 run and Matta took a timeout to regain order. But it was Carolina dictating the style of play. Each time the Buckeyes made a run, the Heels responded. Conley seemed to force the action a bit late in the game.
This OSU team will be crazy when Oden fits in. I'm glad Indiana plays them just once, early in the Big Ten season, because the Buckeyes have a chance to be special.
As far as the crowd, they seemed to be a bit more emotional than their brethren in Durham (reacting as if the officials missed every single call against them). Duke fans seemed a bit more level-headed (maybe not by much) and were more polite. All in all, I would recommend travel to either site for Big Ten fans following their teams.
Later,
Nate D., Indy (via Chapel Hill)
Thanks, Nate!
(Carolina has "brethren" in Durham? I think they might take issue with that.) ¶ 6:13 AM
Thank you for putting together this contrived made-for-TV ACC-Big Ten Challenge. It was worth it to see the outstanding North Carolina-Ohio State game last night, a contest won by the Heels 98-89.
Sure, "November" and "classic" are fundamentally irreconcilable terms in college hoops. Still, that was the best November game I've seen in a very long while. Not only was it a spectacular display of young talent, it was instructive. It taught us the following bit of hoops math:
(North Carolina - turnovers) > (Ohio State - Greg Oden)
In fact, last night proceeded almost exactly according to form, with one decisive exception. The Buckeyes, though pummeled on the boards and deficient in free throws, devoted 40 percent of their shots to threes, shot better from the field than North Carolina, and didn't turn the ball over. It's all Matta-ball, really.
Only thing: the Heels didn't turn the ball over either, giving Ohio State just 11 TOs in a 76-possession game. The book says that number should have been almost twice as high. (That same book says Mike Conley should have recorded three or so steals in 27 minutes. He had none.) Make no mistake: North Carolina minus turnovers is scary-good. They already make shots and they already attack the offensive glass. The only question is how many bites they get at the apple.
So if you're a fan of up-tempo offensive efficiency, it doesn't get any better than Carolina in the second half last night. For the record, here are the numbers from after the intermission: 38 possessions, 54 points, 1.42 points per possession. (And that was with eight missed free throws in the second half. Incredible.)
Tyler Hansbrough posted a 21-14 dub-dub for the Heels and the most impressive part of that performance by far is the 14. Though not as much of a monster on the boards as commonly believed, Hansbrough was unquestionably a monster on the boards last night. (Only quibble: he's got that Greg Brunner thing going on where he takes every offensive rebound as an open invitation to immediately fling himself like a missile into the nearest stationary defender. Then the crowd is outraged if no foul is called on the defense.) And Ty Lawson and Bobby Frasor combined for eight assists and zero turnovers in 40 minutes--nice ratio, that.
That being said, the other team on the floor last night was pretty fair as well. Ron Lewis had a night for the ages, obviously: 30 points in notably efficient style (PPWS for the evening: 1.52). And in the first half the Buckeyes--sharing the ball, attacking relentlessly, hitting shots--looked so much like Illinois against Wake Forest in November 2004 it was eerie. (Look, I saw savory point-guard-level assists last night from Daequan Cook and David Lighty. David Lighty!) Only these Buckeyes are younger than that Illini team was, and they were doing it last night on the home court of one of the best five teams in the nation.
Mike Conley, in the first road game of his college career, imposed his offense's will upon Carolina in the first half with the unnervingly calm mastery of a Deron Williams. (And I mean Deron Williams now--Conley's so far ahead of where Williams was at a comparable point it's mind-bending.) Ohio State actually suffered on offense when Conley came out of the game with his second foul. He is young but he is already the best point guard in the Big Ten. Even more impressive, he's the best point guard on his own team.
So the question now becomes:
Ohio State + Greg Oden = ?
(Box score.)
BONUS ACC kudo! Thank the hoops gods that Ty Lawson landed in the capable velocity-loving hands of Roy Williams. If he were in the Big Ten (or for that matter in Durham or just about anywhere but Chapel Hill) we'd be hearing much blather from his coach right now about how the freshman has to learn to play at the right speed, stay under control, etc. Nonsense. Basketball's a simple game: get to the rim. Williams acknowledges that and thus has the following incredibly complex technical directive for his point guard: go. I loved that about Williams when he was at Kansas and I loved it last night.
On "averaging 100 possessions per game." Yeah, I heard it too. Twice last night before the under-12 timeout in the first half the non-Vitale ESPN talent covering the game said, with due insider gravitas, that Roy Williams had told them he wants North Carolina to average 100 possessions per game. Which would be rather remarkable in that the fastest team in the country last year, Campbell, averaged about 78 possessions per game.
Williams, of course, was speaking with hyperbole aforethought. The ESPN talent, apparently, didn't know that.
Coaches and writers liked the game too
I'm surprised at how surprised the commentariat is this morning at Ohio State's performance. (Glad I bought my Buckeye stock early.)
Andy Katz says that when Oden joins the fun, "the Buckeyes will join North Carolina, Florida, Kansas, UCLA and Pitt as one of the few favorites to win the national championship." Jeff Goodman says with Oden OSU has "a chance to be dominant and distance themselves from the pack."
Thad Matta enjoyed the game: "That to me is college basketball right there, that environment, the plays that were made, the blocked shots, the hustle, the tipped passes. That was exciting." Roy Williams agreed: "Even as a coach, you sit there and marvel at the level that kids are playing at offensively."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Congratulations to the ACC, the clear winner (8-3) in a Challenge where two of the Big Ten's three victories were two-point home wins....
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Boston College beat Michigan State 65-58 last night in Boston. The Eagles deployed a 2-2-1 zone with notable success and led a strangely listless (or merely befuddled) Spartan team by 17 with seven minutes to go before Tom Izzo's men rallied to make it respectable. Jared Dudley needed only 13 shots from the field to score 30 points. And Dudley was indeed the difference in a game that was otherwise equal across the board: all players not named "Dudley" or "Goran Suton" (18 points) shot poorly and both teams turned the ball over....Izzo says he feels "bizarre, or strange, about the effort-related things we're not doing....We didn't get enough out of [Marquise Gray]." Izzo also had praise for Dudley and a thought for Raymar Morgan: "I think, someday Morgan could be in that mold a little bit but, tonight, the senior schooled the rookie." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says last night the Spartans faced "the reality of a rebuilding season." (Box score.)
Tarrance Crump hit a runner in the lane with 1.2 seconds left as Purdue beat Virginia 61-59 in West Lafayette last night. Cavaliers coach Dave Leitao sounded disappointed that the game-winner came on a play he saw coming ahead of time: "Crump averages only one assist per game. I know when he comes off screens and he puts his head down, he's looking to score." Earlier in the evening Gordon Watt officially woke up Mackey Arena after a two-or-so-year slumber with a drive and dunk that was notably spectacular. Laudably aggressive dunkmeister Gordon Watt, Wonk salutes you!...Leitao said he knew the Boilers would be tough: "As I expected to happen, the Purdue team that I saw in Maui that plays their tail off on both ends of the floor played very hard tonight." Carl Landry led his team with 19 points. (Box score.)
Virginia Tech beat Iowa 69-65 last night in Blacksburg, a game in which Adam Haluska left the floor in the final minute with an apparent ankle injury--no word yet on his status. Eerily tracking, it would seem, the simultaneous game between Michigan State and Boston College, the Hawkeyes trailed by 16 inside of seven minutes but made things interesting at the end. An odd spate of late fouling from the Hokies certainly didn't hurt Iowa's cause. (This morning's Iowa City Press-Citizen puts it well: "Virginia Tech tried everything it could to hand Iowa a precious road victory in the final 10 minutes, but the Hawkeyes refused the offer.") Tech didn't shoot as well from the floor as the Hawks but it mattered not one whit as Steve Alford's men chipped in with 19 turnovers in a 65-possession game. Tony Freeman alone coughed up five Hokie gifts in 21 minutes. Before his apparent injury Haluska led Iowa in minutes (39), shots (17), and points (24). (Box score.)
Clemson beat Minnesota 90-68 in Minneapolis last night. This was actually a game for the first 15 minutes but over the final 25 the Gophers were on the short end of a 63-41 run by the Tigers. Minnesota's best shooting of the year by far was cancelled out entirely by the talismanic number 24: as in Gopher turnovers and, even more remarkable, Clemson offensive rebounds (out of 41 chances). Brandon Smith had four defensive rebounds for Minnesota--no other Gopher had more than two. "We did not play with the passion or energy we need to make ourselves the team we need to be," Dan Monson said afterward. Clemson coach Oliver Purnell was more diplomatic: "Our team strengths were their weaknesses. It wasn't a good matchup." Dan Coleman led the home squad with 18 points. (Box score.)
In addition to typing words, I can occasionally speak them....
I'll be talking hoops with Steve "The Homer" True on Milwaukee's ESPN Radio this evening around 6:20 ET. Tune in and listen to me wing it.
COMING tomorrow!
The first of this year's promised occasional pro bono wonking outside the Big Ten....
They're undefeated! They're a mid-major! Their home games are within walking distance of my house! (A key point in their favor.) So just how good is Butler really?
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
The fabulous Nate D. Tobacco Road tour continues!
Alert reader and die-hard Hoosier fan Nate D. is still in Carolina taking in games. Yesterday he filed his report on Indiana-Duke. Today it's Carolina-OSU....
Great game tonight--completely the opposite from from last night.
OSU shocked UNC a little in the first half with their style. I was amazed with Conley's ability to get into the lane and score or dish for an open three. And Cook is a freak of nature--his dunk in the first half silenced the crowd.
UNC came out in the second half with a 6-0 run and Matta took a timeout to regain order. But it was Carolina dictating the style of play. Each time the Buckeyes made a run, the Heels responded. Conley seemed to force the action a bit late in the game.
This OSU team will be crazy when Oden fits in. I'm glad Indiana plays them just once, early in the Big Ten season, because the Buckeyes have a chance to be special.
As far as the crowd, they seemed to be a bit more emotional than their brethren in Durham (reacting as if the officials missed every single call against them). Duke fans seemed a bit more level-headed (maybe not by much) and were more polite. All in all, I would recommend travel to either site for Big Ten fans following their teams.
Later,
Nate D., Indy (via Chapel Hill)
Thanks, Nate!
(Carolina has "brethren" in Durham? I think they might take issue with that.) ¶ 6:13 AM
Wednesday, November 29, 2006
Youth will be served tonight in Chapel Hill
Ohio State vs. North Carolina (ESPN, 9 ET)
If you had told me last March 13 that the national championship was about to be won by a preternaturally young team that had not won its conference's regular season title, I would have put money on North Carolina.
(Then I would have asked you if you had electricity where you live. If you had said yes, I would have asked if I could live with you. But that's another story entirely.)
Last year's Heels, though young, put together some glittering numbers in ACC play. They shot the ball extremely well--only three "power"-conference teams nationally shot better in-conference but, as it happened, two of those were nearby: NC State and Duke. And Roy Williams' men went after their rare misses with notable ferocity--only Connecticut and Boston College did better on the offensive glass in conference play. Those two facets offset a number that did not glitter: Carolina's youngsters turned the ball over on nearly 24 percent of their possessions in-conference. But when they held on to the ball, the Heels' offense was balanced (they shot threes rarely but well) and lethal.
This year they are expected to be even better. And so tonight's game in Chapel Hill between North Carolina and Ohio State is the marquee game of this year's ACC-Big Ten Challenge, the only matchup where both participants, in murky November, look like legitimate no-surprise Final Four contenders.
On paper it would appear that tonight's contest has been designed to satisfy fans of good offense, for each team's defensive question mark should be at the mercy of the opposing team's offensive strength. For the pre-Greg Oden Buckeyes, of course, the question is interior defense. The numbers there so far have been fine for Thad Matta's team but OSU has hardly, to say the least, faced the likes of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright (a combined 61.8 2FG pct.).
On the other side, a Carolina D that's already allowed opponents to hit 39.4 percent of their threes this year is about to face the best three-point shooting team they've seen. Ohio State in the Matta era reliably devotes four in every ten shots to attempted threes--and thus far they've hit 42.3 percent of those attempts from beyond the arc. In Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler, and Ivan Harris, the Buckeyes have multiple perimeter threats. In Daequan Cook they have a pure scorer. And in Mike Conley Jr. they have a player who may be even better than all of the above.
Both teams are young. So too, last year, was Florida.
Identical stats, opposite styles
Hansbrough and Reyshawn Terry have each hauled in 15.3 percent of the possible rebounds during their minutes on the floor so far this season. But they've done so in diametrically opposed fashions.
Terry is what might be termed a Chuck Taylor high-top traditionalist in his preferences: outstanding on the defensive glass (20.2 defensive reb. pct.) and merely average on the offensive boards (9.5 offensive). Hansbrough, on the other hand, is a true eccentric: slightly below-average for his height, surprisingly, on the defensive boards (15.6) but an absolute insatiable monster on the offensive glass (15.0).
Carolina O-fers: the only drinking game based on sound hoops research!
Thus far this season there have been zero instances of each of the following phenomena--so raise your glass tonight if:
--Hansbrough blocks a shot
--Bobby Frasor shoots a free throw
--Wes Miller attempts a two-point shot
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Heading into the last evening of play, the ACC leads this thing 4-2....
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Maryland beat Illinois 72-66 last night in Champaign. With the exception of second-half feeds to Shaun Pruitt in the post, the Illini looked lost on offense all night. But then so did the Terps for the middle 20 minutes of the game--until freshman Greivis Vasquez took over and began to drive at will on the Illinois D, as Maryland outscored the Illini 29-18 over the final nine minutes. Both teams made five threes but the Terps needed 11 fewer attempts (nine vs. 20) to do so. Only heroic efforts on the offensive glass by the home team (21 offensive boards out of 46 possible) kept this one respectable, as the Illini suffered through their worst shooting of the year (38.4 effective FG pct.). Mike Jones led all scorers with 19 points. Pruitt (18-11) and Warren Carter (13-11) posted dub-dubs. (Box score.)
Duke beat Indiana 54-51 in Durham last night. It wasn't exactly a thing of beauty--two young teams playing 63 possessions with much more intensity than skill or savvy--but it was certainly a great contest down the stretch, as the Hoosiers erased an 11-point halftime deficit and came within 53-51 with two minutes left. Armon Bassett made just two of 10 two-pointers but went 4-of-5 on his threes to lead Indiana in shots and points (16), as Kelvin Sampson chose to play long stretches of this game with A.J. Ratliff, Earl Calloway, and Roderick Wilmont seated firmly next to him on the pine. (Well, Ben Allen sat a lot, too, but he fouled out in just 16 minutes. And Lance Stemler did not play due to a concussion suffered in practice over the weekend.) The Blue Devils executed a neat reversal of their strategy from last year's game against Indiana (where they guarded the perimeter and did not double down on Marco Killingsworth) and did an excellent job harassing D.J. White, limiting him to seven points on 3-of-11 shooting from the field. DeMarcus Nelson led all scorers with 19 points. Turnovers were even; IU beat Duke, slightly, on the boards and shot better from the field (42.3 vs. 38.6 effective FG pct.). But the Devils shot 29 free throws; the Hoosiers shot 15--and missed eight of those. (Box score.)
Wisconsin beat Florida State 81-66 last night in Madison. With one exception the Badgers just did everything a little better than the Seminoles. Shooting, rebounding, and holding on to the ball--they all favored Bo Ryan's team. (Though that last category says more about the visitors than it does about the home team. Wisconsin, uncharacteristically, gave away 18 turnovers in a 72-possession game.) But the exception was getting to the line--and there the Badgers were a lot better. Add a 29-to-12 advantage in FTAs to all of the above and what you got here is a 15-point win. FSU's Toney Douglas led all players in shots and points (24). Alando Tucker scored 22 for the Badgers in just 27 minutes. (Tucker spent some time in the locker room after getting a finger in his eye.) (Box score (pdf).)
Georgia Tech beat Penn State 77-73 in Atlanta last night. The ACC-Big Ten Challenge past is prologue! The Nittany Lions played the role of November 2005-vintage Georgia Tech while the Jackets themselves played November 2005-vintage Michigan State: a heavily favored home team that just couldn't shake a visiting team that refused to miss a shot. Indeed, when Penn State held on to the ball they were well nigh unstoppable, shooting better, by far, than in any other game this year (63.0 eFG pct.--Ben Luber, Mooch Jackson, and Danny Morrissey hit a combined 8-of-11 threes). Problem is they didn't hold on to the ball 20 times out of 66. (Another problem: they allowed Tech to shoot even better.) Jamelle Cornley, though notably less efficient than his teammates on the perimeter, led PSU with 20 points on 17 shots. Geary Claxton, continuing to recover from a broken bone in has hand, came off the bench and scored 12 points in 28 minutes. The Jackets played this game without highly-touted all-everything freshman Thaddeus Young, who was sidelined with patellar tendonitis. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat Miami 61-59 last night in Evanston. The Wildcats made 10 threes on 20 attempts and, as it happened, they needed every last one of them. Craig Moore shot 10 threes and made seven of them to lead the 'Cats with 24 points. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, displayed an interesting distribution of offensive efforts and results. Jack McClinton: 9-18 FGAs, 7-8 FTAs, 30 points. Rest of team: 12-38, 1-4, 29 points. Northwestern was beaten to a pulp on the boards but their best shooting of the year was enough for a two-point win at home. (Box score.)
Michigan State plays Boston College in Boston tonight (ESPN, 7 ET). Tom Izzo says BC is a "Jekyll-and-Hyde" team. The Eagles beat New Hampshire by 39 points but lost to Vermont by 14. After missing BC's first two outings, Sean Williams has returned to the team and blocked 19 shots (not a typo) in two games. "I've never seen a shot-blocker like Williams," Izzo says.
Virginia plays Purdue tonight in West Lafayette (ESPN2, 7:30 ET). Matt Painter says Carl Landry showed him some defense in Maui: "I thought he did the best job he's done defensively since he's been at Purdue." Starting freshman guard Chris Kramer, who strained a knee ligament in the Boilers' loss to Georgia Tech in Maui, is listed as doubtful for tonight's game. Profile of Keaton Grant here.
Iowa plays Virginia Tech in Blacksburg tonight (ESPNU, 8 ET). The Hawkeyes have allowed opponents to hit 42.3 percent of their threes and Steve Alford has noticed: "Our three-point field-goal percentage defense is atrocious right now." Alford also says Justin Johnson may take Tony Freeman's place as starting point guard tonight.
Clemson plays Minnesota tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN2, 9:30 ET). Coming off four consecutive losses (to Iowa State, Marist, Southern Illinois, and Montana), Dan Monson says the Gophers are struggling: "The Iowa State game really set us back." Meanwhile, with national hoops analysts speculating about Monson's future, Minnesota athletic director Joel Maturi says he's standing behind his man: "My job is to be supportive of our basketball coach. That's what I'm going to do."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
A Hoosier amidst the Crazies
Alert reader and loyal Indiana fan Nate D. sends in this report from Cameron Indoor....
Great game tonight. Errek Suhr was huge for the Hoosiers in the second half. Although it doesn't show in the box score, he enabled the Hoosiers to get into a flow with the first few possessions after halftime. Hopefully, Wilmont and Ratliff will take their benchings as a wake-up call because they did nothing in the first half.
I was surprised that the two big men weren't more active as Josh McRoberts and D.J. White each had seven points. I am not sure if it was the defenses (Duke liked to double down and IU couldn't make them pay). Stemler's injury was a key to this game because he has been an option offensively this season. IU's putrid foul shooting ended up being one of the main reasons they lost tonight but, all in all, it was worth the trip down here.
One more thing, Duke fans are very polite and friendly. It was a great atmosphere in Cameron (all of 9,000 seats). The Crazies were great and the venue gets rocking when they want it to be. I hope the game tomorrow is as good.
Later,
Nate D.
Indy (via Durham, NC)
Thanks, Nate! I wasn't there but from my seat on the sofa Suhr was feast-or-famine last night. I loved his take-no-prisoners 'tude but he also had four huge turnovers, the most maddening of which was the wholly unnecessary 10-second call.
A Big Ten man in Big XII land
I just wanted to tell you how much I enjoy reading your work on the Big Ten. I've been an Illinois fan since HS in Edwardsville, Illinois, in the mid-1960s and used to watch the Big Ten game of the week with Bill Fleming. I was transferred to Omaha a couple years ago and have two more Husker football seasons to endure up here before I retire. The only things that've saved me are IlliniBoard, Gametracker, ESPN Full Court, and you.
I will say this: Ohio State could run the table if they beat Illinois on the road. I don't understand why so many stars are going there because there is only one ball. (Matta is doing something right.)
Keep up the good work. Loved the post about you and your little guy at Hinkle. Never been to a game there--another thing to do in 2009 when I move back to Illinois.
Jim M.
Omaha
Thanks, Jim! ¶ 6:54 AM
Ohio State vs. North Carolina (ESPN, 9 ET)
If you had told me last March 13 that the national championship was about to be won by a preternaturally young team that had not won its conference's regular season title, I would have put money on North Carolina.
(Then I would have asked you if you had electricity where you live. If you had said yes, I would have asked if I could live with you. But that's another story entirely.)
Last year's Heels, though young, put together some glittering numbers in ACC play. They shot the ball extremely well--only three "power"-conference teams nationally shot better in-conference but, as it happened, two of those were nearby: NC State and Duke. And Roy Williams' men went after their rare misses with notable ferocity--only Connecticut and Boston College did better on the offensive glass in conference play. Those two facets offset a number that did not glitter: Carolina's youngsters turned the ball over on nearly 24 percent of their possessions in-conference. But when they held on to the ball, the Heels' offense was balanced (they shot threes rarely but well) and lethal.
This year they are expected to be even better. And so tonight's game in Chapel Hill between North Carolina and Ohio State is the marquee game of this year's ACC-Big Ten Challenge, the only matchup where both participants, in murky November, look like legitimate no-surprise Final Four contenders.
On paper it would appear that tonight's contest has been designed to satisfy fans of good offense, for each team's defensive question mark should be at the mercy of the opposing team's offensive strength. For the pre-Greg Oden Buckeyes, of course, the question is interior defense. The numbers there so far have been fine for Thad Matta's team but OSU has hardly, to say the least, faced the likes of Tyler Hansbrough and Brandan Wright (a combined 61.8 2FG pct.).
On the other side, a Carolina D that's already allowed opponents to hit 39.4 percent of their threes this year is about to face the best three-point shooting team they've seen. Ohio State in the Matta era reliably devotes four in every ten shots to attempted threes--and thus far they've hit 42.3 percent of those attempts from beyond the arc. In Ron Lewis, Jamar Butler, and Ivan Harris, the Buckeyes have multiple perimeter threats. In Daequan Cook they have a pure scorer. And in Mike Conley Jr. they have a player who may be even better than all of the above.
Both teams are young. So too, last year, was Florida.
Identical stats, opposite styles
Hansbrough and Reyshawn Terry have each hauled in 15.3 percent of the possible rebounds during their minutes on the floor so far this season. But they've done so in diametrically opposed fashions.
Terry is what might be termed a Chuck Taylor high-top traditionalist in his preferences: outstanding on the defensive glass (20.2 defensive reb. pct.) and merely average on the offensive boards (9.5 offensive). Hansbrough, on the other hand, is a true eccentric: slightly below-average for his height, surprisingly, on the defensive boards (15.6) but an absolute insatiable monster on the offensive glass (15.0).
Carolina O-fers: the only drinking game based on sound hoops research!
Thus far this season there have been zero instances of each of the following phenomena--so raise your glass tonight if:
--Hansbrough blocks a shot
--Bobby Frasor shoots a free throw
--Wes Miller attempts a two-point shot
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Heading into the last evening of play, the ACC leads this thing 4-2....
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Maryland beat Illinois 72-66 last night in Champaign. With the exception of second-half feeds to Shaun Pruitt in the post, the Illini looked lost on offense all night. But then so did the Terps for the middle 20 minutes of the game--until freshman Greivis Vasquez took over and began to drive at will on the Illinois D, as Maryland outscored the Illini 29-18 over the final nine minutes. Both teams made five threes but the Terps needed 11 fewer attempts (nine vs. 20) to do so. Only heroic efforts on the offensive glass by the home team (21 offensive boards out of 46 possible) kept this one respectable, as the Illini suffered through their worst shooting of the year (38.4 effective FG pct.). Mike Jones led all scorers with 19 points. Pruitt (18-11) and Warren Carter (13-11) posted dub-dubs. (Box score.)
Duke beat Indiana 54-51 in Durham last night. It wasn't exactly a thing of beauty--two young teams playing 63 possessions with much more intensity than skill or savvy--but it was certainly a great contest down the stretch, as the Hoosiers erased an 11-point halftime deficit and came within 53-51 with two minutes left. Armon Bassett made just two of 10 two-pointers but went 4-of-5 on his threes to lead Indiana in shots and points (16), as Kelvin Sampson chose to play long stretches of this game with A.J. Ratliff, Earl Calloway, and Roderick Wilmont seated firmly next to him on the pine. (Well, Ben Allen sat a lot, too, but he fouled out in just 16 minutes. And Lance Stemler did not play due to a concussion suffered in practice over the weekend.) The Blue Devils executed a neat reversal of their strategy from last year's game against Indiana (where they guarded the perimeter and did not double down on Marco Killingsworth) and did an excellent job harassing D.J. White, limiting him to seven points on 3-of-11 shooting from the field. DeMarcus Nelson led all scorers with 19 points. Turnovers were even; IU beat Duke, slightly, on the boards and shot better from the field (42.3 vs. 38.6 effective FG pct.). But the Devils shot 29 free throws; the Hoosiers shot 15--and missed eight of those. (Box score.)
Wisconsin beat Florida State 81-66 last night in Madison. With one exception the Badgers just did everything a little better than the Seminoles. Shooting, rebounding, and holding on to the ball--they all favored Bo Ryan's team. (Though that last category says more about the visitors than it does about the home team. Wisconsin, uncharacteristically, gave away 18 turnovers in a 72-possession game.) But the exception was getting to the line--and there the Badgers were a lot better. Add a 29-to-12 advantage in FTAs to all of the above and what you got here is a 15-point win. FSU's Toney Douglas led all players in shots and points (24). Alando Tucker scored 22 for the Badgers in just 27 minutes. (Tucker spent some time in the locker room after getting a finger in his eye.) (Box score (pdf).)
Georgia Tech beat Penn State 77-73 in Atlanta last night. The ACC-Big Ten Challenge past is prologue! The Nittany Lions played the role of November 2005-vintage Georgia Tech while the Jackets themselves played November 2005-vintage Michigan State: a heavily favored home team that just couldn't shake a visiting team that refused to miss a shot. Indeed, when Penn State held on to the ball they were well nigh unstoppable, shooting better, by far, than in any other game this year (63.0 eFG pct.--Ben Luber, Mooch Jackson, and Danny Morrissey hit a combined 8-of-11 threes). Problem is they didn't hold on to the ball 20 times out of 66. (Another problem: they allowed Tech to shoot even better.) Jamelle Cornley, though notably less efficient than his teammates on the perimeter, led PSU with 20 points on 17 shots. Geary Claxton, continuing to recover from a broken bone in has hand, came off the bench and scored 12 points in 28 minutes. The Jackets played this game without highly-touted all-everything freshman Thaddeus Young, who was sidelined with patellar tendonitis. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat Miami 61-59 last night in Evanston. The Wildcats made 10 threes on 20 attempts and, as it happened, they needed every last one of them. Craig Moore shot 10 threes and made seven of them to lead the 'Cats with 24 points. The Hurricanes, meanwhile, displayed an interesting distribution of offensive efforts and results. Jack McClinton: 9-18 FGAs, 7-8 FTAs, 30 points. Rest of team: 12-38, 1-4, 29 points. Northwestern was beaten to a pulp on the boards but their best shooting of the year was enough for a two-point win at home. (Box score.)
Michigan State plays Boston College in Boston tonight (ESPN, 7 ET). Tom Izzo says BC is a "Jekyll-and-Hyde" team. The Eagles beat New Hampshire by 39 points but lost to Vermont by 14. After missing BC's first two outings, Sean Williams has returned to the team and blocked 19 shots (not a typo) in two games. "I've never seen a shot-blocker like Williams," Izzo says.
Virginia plays Purdue tonight in West Lafayette (ESPN2, 7:30 ET). Matt Painter says Carl Landry showed him some defense in Maui: "I thought he did the best job he's done defensively since he's been at Purdue." Starting freshman guard Chris Kramer, who strained a knee ligament in the Boilers' loss to Georgia Tech in Maui, is listed as doubtful for tonight's game. Profile of Keaton Grant here.
Iowa plays Virginia Tech in Blacksburg tonight (ESPNU, 8 ET). The Hawkeyes have allowed opponents to hit 42.3 percent of their threes and Steve Alford has noticed: "Our three-point field-goal percentage defense is atrocious right now." Alford also says Justin Johnson may take Tony Freeman's place as starting point guard tonight.
Clemson plays Minnesota tonight in Minneapolis (ESPN2, 9:30 ET). Coming off four consecutive losses (to Iowa State, Marist, Southern Illinois, and Montana), Dan Monson says the Gophers are struggling: "The Iowa State game really set us back." Meanwhile, with national hoops analysts speculating about Monson's future, Minnesota athletic director Joel Maturi says he's standing behind his man: "My job is to be supportive of our basketball coach. That's what I'm going to do."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
A Hoosier amidst the Crazies
Alert reader and loyal Indiana fan Nate D. sends in this report from Cameron Indoor....
Great game tonight. Errek Suhr was huge for the Hoosiers in the second half. Although it doesn't show in the box score, he enabled the Hoosiers to get into a flow with the first few possessions after halftime. Hopefully, Wilmont and Ratliff will take their benchings as a wake-up call because they did nothing in the first half.
I was surprised that the two big men weren't more active as Josh McRoberts and D.J. White each had seven points. I am not sure if it was the defenses (Duke liked to double down and IU couldn't make them pay). Stemler's injury was a key to this game because he has been an option offensively this season. IU's putrid foul shooting ended up being one of the main reasons they lost tonight but, all in all, it was worth the trip down here.
One more thing, Duke fans are very polite and friendly. It was a great atmosphere in Cameron (all of 9,000 seats). The Crazies were great and the venue gets rocking when they want it to be. I hope the game tomorrow is as good.
Later,
Nate D.
Indy (via Durham, NC)
Thanks, Nate! I wasn't there but from my seat on the sofa Suhr was feast-or-famine last night. I loved his take-no-prisoners 'tude but he also had four huge turnovers, the most maddening of which was the wholly unnecessary 10-second call.
A Big Ten man in Big XII land
I just wanted to tell you how much I enjoy reading your work on the Big Ten. I've been an Illinois fan since HS in Edwardsville, Illinois, in the mid-1960s and used to watch the Big Ten game of the week with Bill Fleming. I was transferred to Omaha a couple years ago and have two more Husker football seasons to endure up here before I retire. The only things that've saved me are IlliniBoard, Gametracker, ESPN Full Court, and you.
I will say this: Ohio State could run the table if they beat Illinois on the road. I don't understand why so many stars are going there because there is only one ball. (Matta is doing something right.)
Keep up the good work. Loved the post about you and your little guy at Hinkle. Never been to a game there--another thing to do in 2009 when I move back to Illinois.
Jim M.
Omaha
Thanks, Jim! ¶ 6:54 AM
Tuesday, November 28, 2006
Michigan: the defense rests
The announcer on the Michigan-NC State game last night said Tommy Amaker has termed his team "offense-sensitive," meaning if the Wolverines aren't hitting shots then their effort on defense suffers. Amaker has said this before, about college players "today" in general and about Daniel Horton last year in particular. It sounds like the stock lament of a cranky old guy. But Amaker isn't (that) old--and it sure looked true last night, as Michigan fell to the Wolfpack 74-67 in Raleigh.
Courtney Sims pulled away from the paint on defense is not a pretty sight, as he was beaten off the dribble repeatedly by the suddenly formidable-looking Ben McCauley. And Jerret Smith was back-cut mercilessly by the suddenly formidable-looking Bryan Nieman. NC State weaved and cut at will.
As if in support of their coach's "offense-sensitive" theory, the Wolverines' struggles on D (aside from some spectacular blocks by Brent Petway) tracked with eerie precision the futility of their offense. Last night Dion Harris launched three after errant three with the aggrieved adolescent repetition of someone trying to prove he's not a 32 percent shooter outside the arc, year-to-date stats be damned. Well, he's right: he's better than 32 percent. But even when he's on his game he's not deadly enough to be given 14 attempted threes in a 72-possession game.
Still, Harris at least went down with guns blazing, as it were. Where is Lester Abram?
(Box score.)
A couple links
Amaker's take: "It's obvious for us the two kids who didn't play well were Abram and (Courtney) Sims." Harris's: "I tried to stay aggressive, but I struggled out there."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Purdue big man Carl Landry says three games in three days in Maui convinced him that his surgically repaired knee really is fine.
Iowa guard Mike Henderson had the cast removed from his right hand yesterday and could be back in action as early as this weekend.
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Maryland plays at Illinois tonight (ESPN, 7 ET). Chester Frazier's from Baltimore and Bruce Weber frets that his sophomore guard might try to do too much: "He's hyper as it is and it's a huge game for him to show what he's about and, hey, maybe they should have recruited him." (So how, exactly, did Frazier end up at Illinois? Read more here.) Frazier says he'll be fine....Referring to Dee Brown and James Augustine, Shaun Pruitt says he and his mates are "stepping out of Dee and James' shadow....This team is probably more confident because a lot of people doubt us."...Jamar Smith is "back" from his sprained ankle, having played 17 minutes in the Bradley game Saturday night, but that doesn't mean he's 100 percent. "I wouldn’t say he’s running around like a deer or a gazelle or anything,” Weber says. “He’ll play."...The injury update on Brian Randle: expected to return mid-December.... Weber on recruiting: he'll take NBA-level talent, thank you, even if they leave early. That's the talent that gets you to the Final Four: "George Mason was the exception."
Florida State plays tonight at Wisconsin (ESPN2, 7:30 ET). Bo Ryan on the Big Ten being 0-7 in the Challenge: "I watched the National League and the American League in the baseball All-Star Game go through some streaks where it seemed like the one league was never going to win another game and all of a sudden they make a strong run. So that's what we have to do in the Big Ten." Ryan, whose team lost a two-point game to Missouri State on Friday, also says he doesn't believe there's a "trend" behind mid-majors posting upsets. "This has always been going on. It's just, there's more lips moving now."...Profile of Alando Tucker here. Profile of Badger freshman guard Jason Bohannon here.
Penn State plays at Georgia Tech tonight (ESPNU, 8 ET). Profile of Nittany Lion big man Brandon Hassell here.
Indiana plays tonight at Duke (ESPN, 9 ET). Hoosier coach Kelvin Sampson says his team is still looking for its identity: "We need something that we can say, 'This is who we are. Every game this is what we're going to be.'" (Helpfully and wholly on a pro bono basis, I have suggested "defense" as an answer to that question.)...Profile of Blue Devil sophomore Josh McRoberts, the pride of Carmel, IN, here.
Miami plays at Northwestern tonight (ESPN2, 9:30 ET). The Hurricanes are 4-2 with losses to Buffalo and Cleveland State. This is the first meeting ever between 'Canes and 'Cats.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
"Give us hope"
Yesterday I said Ohio State will play in the (basketball) national championship game. The readers respond!
Hi, Wonk,
Being a Michigan State fan, I don't have nearly the animosity toward Ohio State that the diploma mill down the road does. But I have to admit that I would rather not see them win championships in both basketball and football in the same year.
Can you give hope to the rest of us? Talent-wise the Buckeyes seem to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league. To my eyes, the recent powers in the league (MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin) have some nice players, but their talent level is a little short of what it has been in recent years. And no one else in the league seems to have stepped up much.
In your opinion, does anyone else in the league come close to matching up with OSU?
Mark J.
No, not post-Oden-return, but here are two slim reeds of hope for fans of ten other teams:
1. As noted yesterday, the Buckeyes aren't terribly numerous.
2. When Greg Oden returns OSU will likely run a lot of 1-4 offensive sets, as they did with Terence Dials last year, wherein about 40 percent of the shots are attempted threes. Offenses that shoot that many threes are more volatile, for good and ill, than ones that devote, say, 35.6 percent of their attempts to threes (Big Ten average last year in-conference). ¶ 6:03 AM
The announcer on the Michigan-NC State game last night said Tommy Amaker has termed his team "offense-sensitive," meaning if the Wolverines aren't hitting shots then their effort on defense suffers. Amaker has said this before, about college players "today" in general and about Daniel Horton last year in particular. It sounds like the stock lament of a cranky old guy. But Amaker isn't (that) old--and it sure looked true last night, as Michigan fell to the Wolfpack 74-67 in Raleigh.
Courtney Sims pulled away from the paint on defense is not a pretty sight, as he was beaten off the dribble repeatedly by the suddenly formidable-looking Ben McCauley. And Jerret Smith was back-cut mercilessly by the suddenly formidable-looking Bryan Nieman. NC State weaved and cut at will.
As if in support of their coach's "offense-sensitive" theory, the Wolverines' struggles on D (aside from some spectacular blocks by Brent Petway) tracked with eerie precision the futility of their offense. Last night Dion Harris launched three after errant three with the aggrieved adolescent repetition of someone trying to prove he's not a 32 percent shooter outside the arc, year-to-date stats be damned. Well, he's right: he's better than 32 percent. But even when he's on his game he's not deadly enough to be given 14 attempted threes in a 72-possession game.
Still, Harris at least went down with guns blazing, as it were. Where is Lester Abram?
(Box score.)
A couple links
Amaker's take: "It's obvious for us the two kids who didn't play well were Abram and (Courtney) Sims." Harris's: "I tried to stay aggressive, but I struggled out there."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Purdue big man Carl Landry says three games in three days in Maui convinced him that his surgically repaired knee really is fine.
Iowa guard Mike Henderson had the cast removed from his right hand yesterday and could be back in action as early as this weekend.
ACC-Big Ten Challenge
Maryland plays at Illinois tonight (ESPN, 7 ET). Chester Frazier's from Baltimore and Bruce Weber frets that his sophomore guard might try to do too much: "He's hyper as it is and it's a huge game for him to show what he's about and, hey, maybe they should have recruited him." (So how, exactly, did Frazier end up at Illinois? Read more here.) Frazier says he'll be fine....Referring to Dee Brown and James Augustine, Shaun Pruitt says he and his mates are "stepping out of Dee and James' shadow....This team is probably more confident because a lot of people doubt us."...Jamar Smith is "back" from his sprained ankle, having played 17 minutes in the Bradley game Saturday night, but that doesn't mean he's 100 percent. "I wouldn’t say he’s running around like a deer or a gazelle or anything,” Weber says. “He’ll play."...The injury update on Brian Randle: expected to return mid-December.... Weber on recruiting: he'll take NBA-level talent, thank you, even if they leave early. That's the talent that gets you to the Final Four: "George Mason was the exception."
Florida State plays tonight at Wisconsin (ESPN2, 7:30 ET). Bo Ryan on the Big Ten being 0-7 in the Challenge: "I watched the National League and the American League in the baseball All-Star Game go through some streaks where it seemed like the one league was never going to win another game and all of a sudden they make a strong run. So that's what we have to do in the Big Ten." Ryan, whose team lost a two-point game to Missouri State on Friday, also says he doesn't believe there's a "trend" behind mid-majors posting upsets. "This has always been going on. It's just, there's more lips moving now."...Profile of Alando Tucker here. Profile of Badger freshman guard Jason Bohannon here.
Penn State plays at Georgia Tech tonight (ESPNU, 8 ET). Profile of Nittany Lion big man Brandon Hassell here.
Indiana plays tonight at Duke (ESPN, 9 ET). Hoosier coach Kelvin Sampson says his team is still looking for its identity: "We need something that we can say, 'This is who we are. Every game this is what we're going to be.'" (Helpfully and wholly on a pro bono basis, I have suggested "defense" as an answer to that question.)...Profile of Blue Devil sophomore Josh McRoberts, the pride of Carmel, IN, here.
Miami plays at Northwestern tonight (ESPN2, 9:30 ET). The Hurricanes are 4-2 with losses to Buffalo and Cleveland State. This is the first meeting ever between 'Canes and 'Cats.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
"Give us hope"
Yesterday I said Ohio State will play in the (basketball) national championship game. The readers respond!
Hi, Wonk,
Being a Michigan State fan, I don't have nearly the animosity toward Ohio State that the diploma mill down the road does. But I have to admit that I would rather not see them win championships in both basketball and football in the same year.
Can you give hope to the rest of us? Talent-wise the Buckeyes seem to be head-and-shoulders above the rest of the league. To my eyes, the recent powers in the league (MSU, Illinois, Wisconsin) have some nice players, but their talent level is a little short of what it has been in recent years. And no one else in the league seems to have stepped up much.
In your opinion, does anyone else in the league come close to matching up with OSU?
Mark J.
No, not post-Oden-return, but here are two slim reeds of hope for fans of ten other teams:
1. As noted yesterday, the Buckeyes aren't terribly numerous.
2. When Greg Oden returns OSU will likely run a lot of 1-4 offensive sets, as they did with Terence Dials last year, wherein about 40 percent of the shots are attempted threes. Offenses that shoot that many threes are more volatile, for good and ill, than ones that devote, say, 35.6 percent of their attempts to threes (Big Ten average last year in-conference). ¶ 6:03 AM
Monday, November 27, 2006
Ohio State will play in the national championship game (in basketball)
I guess for me the moment came when I was looking at the numbers for Mike Conley Jr., Ohio State's freshman guard. Sure, he hasn't shown an outside shot yet (1-of-7 on his threes)--but with uncommon non-freshman acuity he chooses his shots accordingly (only 18 percent of his shots have been threes) and thus is a paragon of scoring efficiency (1.26 PPWS). Plus he's registered a gaudy 13 assists per 100 possessions thus far. (Drew Neitzel led the Big Ten last year with about 10 assists per 100 poss.) And he records more than six steals per 100 possessions. Good grief, give Conley another few games and Jamar Butler, my Big Ten POY last year, may not even be the best point guard on his own team. So Thad Matta has multiple point-guard-level performers on hand.
Plus Ron Lewis (1.41 PPWS).
Plus Daequan Cook (1.33).
Mutliple highly efficient offensive threats.
And I thought: man, this team looks a lot like Illinois in 2005.
Uh, plus Greg Oden.
What you need to understand about Ohio State
OK, now the disclaimers. It's early and the young Buckeyes are yet to play a "power"-conference opponent or, for that matter, journey outside the friendly confines of Value City Arena. That's about to change in dramatic and abrupt fashion: Ohio State plays at North Carolina Wednesday night.
But even granting applicable adjectives like "young," "early," and "home games a-go-go," here is what can fairly be said about this team at the present time:
1. They present multiple offensive threats. See above.
2. They defend. When Ohio State posted a notably strong number for FG defense in Matta's first season in 2005, I was skeptical and thought it might have been mere chance. When they did it again last year (particularly on the perimeter), my skepticism vanished: tenacious FG defense can now be positively affirmed as a Matta genetic marker. (It's true opponents actually shot pretty well on the interior against the Buckeyes last year. My uncommonly enlightening insider's perspective on Big Ten hoops leads me to expect, however, that this will be less of an issue this year.)
3. Even without Oden, they're not as weak on the interior as commonly assumed. In Othello Hunter (18.4 rebound percentage) and Cook (16.8), the Buckeyes have two very solid performers on the glass--and Hunter blocks shots (4.5 every 100 possessions), as well. Sure, they'll improve dramatically on the interior when Oden arrives but the same could be said of Florida, Carolina, or any other team in the country.
Yes, questions remain. Most notably, scholarship players are not terribly numerous in Columbus. Will the Buckeyes be like Illinois in 2005 (key starters playing 80+ percent of the available minutes with no apparent ill effect) or will they be like Michigan State in 2006 (key starters playing 80+ percent of the available minutes with readily apparent ill effect)? We don't know.
But for now I'm standing by my headline. (Just not saying which year.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Much holiday hooping to catch up on....
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--Wednesday!
Purdue beat DePaul 81-73 in consolation-bracket action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational. With both teams playing their third game in three days, defense was not exactly stifling on either side, as both the Boilers and the Blue Demons cleared the point-per-possession mark with ease. Carl Landry (22-10) and David Teague (14-11) posted dub-dubs for Purdue, while Tarrance Crump chipped in 20 with points. The Boilers led by as many as 24 in the first half and then saw that lead shrink to as little as six before holding on for the win. (Box score.)...Injury update: freshman starter Chris Kramer is listed as day-to-day with a sprained ligament in his right knee. Kramer missed both the DePaul and Oklahoma games in Maui.
Michigan beat Youngstown State 65-56 in Ann Arbor. Despite scoring just five points, Dion Harris led the Wolverines in minutes, shots (12), and assists (seven). Bold yet low-scoring statistical extremist Dion Harris, Wonk salutes you! Meanwhile, Courtney Sims scored 18 and Brent Petway added a 13-10 dub-dub for the home team in a game where, according to the notably erudite-sounding official Michigan recap, the Wolverines "maintained a subtle dominance throughout the contest." It seems the Michigan athletic department is hiring more Foucault-reading scribes freshly-minted from grad school. (Box score.)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--the holiday itself!
Marist beat Minnesota 63-56 in the quarterfinals of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. The Gophers were without Spencer Tollackson, who missed the game due to stomach flu. Without the big guy in the paint, Minnesota was content to launch 31 threes, missing 22 of them. The Red Foxes led throughout in their first-ever game against a Big Ten team. Lawrence McKenzie led the Gophers in minutes, shots (19), points (17), assists (three), and turnovers (four). Bold statistical extremist Lawrence McKenzie, Wonk salutes you! (Box score (pdf).)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--Friday!
Missouri State beat Wisconsin 66-64 at the South Padre Invitational in Texas. Disregard accounts of this game saying the Bears won thanks to torrid shooting, particularly in the first half. Missouri State may indeed have made some shots before halftime but for the game they shot no better (51.0 effective FG pct.) than did Delaware State (52.7 eFG pct.) when the latter team lost to the Badgers by eight in Madison last Tuesday. No, Wisconsin lost because: 1) they didn't shoot very well (41.1 eFG pct.) and, much more surprisingly, 2) they were beaten, slightly, on the boards. Alando Tucker led the Badgers in shots, rebounds (six), and points (26). (Box score.)
Illinois beat Miami of Ohio 51-49 in first-round action at the Chicago Invitational, played whimsically enough in Hoffman Estates at the spanking-new Sears Centre. The Illini trailed by as many as 16 in the first half and did not take their first lead of the game until they went ahead 48-47 with 1:20 remaining. The Redhawks slowed the game down (57 possessions) and got a big night from Nathan Peavy (22-11 dub-dub). But Illinois held Miami to just seven points over the final 14 minutes and got the win. Shaun Pruitt led the Illini with a 12-10 dub-dub. (Box score.)
Southern Illinois beat Minnesota 69-53 in consolation-bracket action at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. The Gophers coughed up the ball 22 times in a 67-possession game (Kevin Payton recorded five turnovers in just 11 minutes) and were beaten, slightly, on the boards by the Salukis. Spencer Tollackson returned from a bout with stomach flu but recorded just four points and three boards in 25 minutes. Brandon Smith led Minnesota in shots (10) and points (14). (Box score (pdf).)
Ohio State beat Youngstown State 91-57 in Columbus. Ivan Harris came off the bench to hit 3-of-5 threes and led the Buckeyes with 19 points. Mike Conley Jr. recorded five steals in just 23 minutes. (Box score.)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--Saturday!
Arizona State beat Iowa 67-64 in Tempe. Despite having started the game in an 11-0 hole, the Hawkeyes led 60-48 with 5:38 to play. From that point on, however, Steve Alford watched as his team gave up five threes to four different Sun Devils. For the game ASU shot 62.5 percent on their threes. Adam Haluska led Iowa in shots (17) and points (24). (Box score.)
Illinois beat Bradley 75-71 in final-round action at the Chicago Invitational, played whimsically enough in Hoffman Estates at the spanking-new Sears Centre. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper succinctly sums up the game and the holiday weekend for Illinois: "a slow start, wobbly free-throw shooting, clamp-down defense, steady rally and a host of different heroes." The Illini trailed by as many as 11 but the return of Jamar Smith (who scored 14 points in 17 minutes a mere 12 days after suffering a high ankle sprain that was supposed to have sidelined him for the obligatory "four to six weeks") helped nudge Illinois to the win. Warren Carter led the Illini with 17 points while Chester Frazier recorded the exceedingly rare ascending numbers points-assists dub-dub: 10 points and 11 assists with just one turnover. (Box score.)
Wisconsin beat Auburn 77-63 at the South Padre Invitational in Texas. The Badgers led throughout and dominated on the offensive glass (16 boards in 35 chances) to give Bo Ryan his 500th career victory. Kammron Taylor led Wisconsin with 16 points. (Box score (pdf).)
Penn State beat St. Joseph's 65-61 in State College. The Nittany Lions trailed by eight with 1:20 remaining before Danny Morrissey scored eight straight points, three of which came on a banked-in three with 25 seconds left. Jamelle Cornley posted an 18-10 dub-dub and was a monster on the offensive glass, pulling down seven of his team's 14 boards on that end. Geary Claxton saw his first action since breaking a bone in his hand in an exhibition game on November 1 and recorded a key block in the game's final seconds. Phil Martelli didn't see it that way, thought perhaps a foul was in order, and got T'd up, thus furnishing the home team with the final margin of victory. (Box score (pdf).)
Michigan State beat Oakland 71-53 in East Lansing, a game which the Spartans led 40-13 at the half. Drew Neitzel led MSU in shots (15), points (21), assists (seven), and turnovers (five). Marquise Gray posted a 14-12 dub-dub in 26 minutes for the home team. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat North Florida 40-39 in Evanston. On the game's 51st and final possession, off a missed three by Craig Moore, Kevin Coble grabbed an offensive rebound and put the ball in with 3.2 seconds remaining for the game-winner. NU won't get many W's where they shoot 16 percent on their threes (4-of-25) or where their leading scorer records just eight points (Tim Doyle), but then the Ospreys made just 13 of 42 two-point shots. That helped. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Maryland-Baltimore County 66-54 in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines owned the offensive glass (14 boards out of 30 chances) on an afternoon where they were cold from outside (4-of-20 on their threes). Courtney Sims posted an 18-12 dub-dub for the victors. (No word on whether subtle dominance was maintained for a second consecutive game.) Note: Michigan's outside shooting's been horrendous during their 7-0 start, hitting just 28.2 percent of their threes. (Box score.)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Montana beat Minnesota 72-65 in consolation-bracket action at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, capping an 0-3 trip to Disney World for the Gophers. The cumulative numbers from the three games are not pretty: nearly 41 percent of Minnesota's shots were threes, of which they made just 30.4 percent. While in Florida the Gophers scored just 0.86 points per possession against opponents from the MAAC, Missouri Valley, and Big Sky. "We came down here and found out a lot about ourselves," said Dan Monson. "Unfortunately, we don't like what we found out." Dan Coleman led Minnesota with 13 points. (Special kudos go out to Bryan Ellis of the Grizzlies for posting the Bold Statistical Extremist Line of the Year So Far: 10 points, 0 FGAs, 10 assists, seven turnovers, and four steals.) (Box score (pdf).)
Oh, yeah--there's this other gig this week....
Welcome to the ACC-Big Ten Challenge! Truly this is the Iowa Caucuses of hoops: too early, over-hyped, and patently artificial, yet a genuinely compelling competitive spectacle. Play opens tonight with Michigan taking on NC State in Raleigh (ESPN2, 7ET).
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:00 AM
I guess for me the moment came when I was looking at the numbers for Mike Conley Jr., Ohio State's freshman guard. Sure, he hasn't shown an outside shot yet (1-of-7 on his threes)--but with uncommon non-freshman acuity he chooses his shots accordingly (only 18 percent of his shots have been threes) and thus is a paragon of scoring efficiency (1.26 PPWS). Plus he's registered a gaudy 13 assists per 100 possessions thus far. (Drew Neitzel led the Big Ten last year with about 10 assists per 100 poss.) And he records more than six steals per 100 possessions. Good grief, give Conley another few games and Jamar Butler, my Big Ten POY last year, may not even be the best point guard on his own team. So Thad Matta has multiple point-guard-level performers on hand.
Plus Ron Lewis (1.41 PPWS).
Plus Daequan Cook (1.33).
Mutliple highly efficient offensive threats.
And I thought: man, this team looks a lot like Illinois in 2005.
Uh, plus Greg Oden.
What you need to understand about Ohio State
OK, now the disclaimers. It's early and the young Buckeyes are yet to play a "power"-conference opponent or, for that matter, journey outside the friendly confines of Value City Arena. That's about to change in dramatic and abrupt fashion: Ohio State plays at North Carolina Wednesday night.
But even granting applicable adjectives like "young," "early," and "home games a-go-go," here is what can fairly be said about this team at the present time:
1. They present multiple offensive threats. See above.
2. They defend. When Ohio State posted a notably strong number for FG defense in Matta's first season in 2005, I was skeptical and thought it might have been mere chance. When they did it again last year (particularly on the perimeter), my skepticism vanished: tenacious FG defense can now be positively affirmed as a Matta genetic marker. (It's true opponents actually shot pretty well on the interior against the Buckeyes last year. My uncommonly enlightening insider's perspective on Big Ten hoops leads me to expect, however, that this will be less of an issue this year.)
3. Even without Oden, they're not as weak on the interior as commonly assumed. In Othello Hunter (18.4 rebound percentage) and Cook (16.8), the Buckeyes have two very solid performers on the glass--and Hunter blocks shots (4.5 every 100 possessions), as well. Sure, they'll improve dramatically on the interior when Oden arrives but the same could be said of Florida, Carolina, or any other team in the country.
Yes, questions remain. Most notably, scholarship players are not terribly numerous in Columbus. Will the Buckeyes be like Illinois in 2005 (key starters playing 80+ percent of the available minutes with no apparent ill effect) or will they be like Michigan State in 2006 (key starters playing 80+ percent of the available minutes with readily apparent ill effect)? We don't know.
But for now I'm standing by my headline. (Just not saying which year.)
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Much holiday hooping to catch up on....
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--Wednesday!
Purdue beat DePaul 81-73 in consolation-bracket action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational. With both teams playing their third game in three days, defense was not exactly stifling on either side, as both the Boilers and the Blue Demons cleared the point-per-possession mark with ease. Carl Landry (22-10) and David Teague (14-11) posted dub-dubs for Purdue, while Tarrance Crump chipped in 20 with points. The Boilers led by as many as 24 in the first half and then saw that lead shrink to as little as six before holding on for the win. (Box score.)...Injury update: freshman starter Chris Kramer is listed as day-to-day with a sprained ligament in his right knee. Kramer missed both the DePaul and Oklahoma games in Maui.
Michigan beat Youngstown State 65-56 in Ann Arbor. Despite scoring just five points, Dion Harris led the Wolverines in minutes, shots (12), and assists (seven). Bold yet low-scoring statistical extremist Dion Harris, Wonk salutes you! Meanwhile, Courtney Sims scored 18 and Brent Petway added a 13-10 dub-dub for the home team in a game where, according to the notably erudite-sounding official Michigan recap, the Wolverines "maintained a subtle dominance throughout the contest." It seems the Michigan athletic department is hiring more Foucault-reading scribes freshly-minted from grad school. (Box score.)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--the holiday itself!
Marist beat Minnesota 63-56 in the quarterfinals of the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. The Gophers were without Spencer Tollackson, who missed the game due to stomach flu. Without the big guy in the paint, Minnesota was content to launch 31 threes, missing 22 of them. The Red Foxes led throughout in their first-ever game against a Big Ten team. Lawrence McKenzie led the Gophers in minutes, shots (19), points (17), assists (three), and turnovers (four). Bold statistical extremist Lawrence McKenzie, Wonk salutes you! (Box score (pdf).)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--Friday!
Missouri State beat Wisconsin 66-64 at the South Padre Invitational in Texas. Disregard accounts of this game saying the Bears won thanks to torrid shooting, particularly in the first half. Missouri State may indeed have made some shots before halftime but for the game they shot no better (51.0 effective FG pct.) than did Delaware State (52.7 eFG pct.) when the latter team lost to the Badgers by eight in Madison last Tuesday. No, Wisconsin lost because: 1) they didn't shoot very well (41.1 eFG pct.) and, much more surprisingly, 2) they were beaten, slightly, on the boards. Alando Tucker led the Badgers in shots, rebounds (six), and points (26). (Box score.)
Illinois beat Miami of Ohio 51-49 in first-round action at the Chicago Invitational, played whimsically enough in Hoffman Estates at the spanking-new Sears Centre. The Illini trailed by as many as 16 in the first half and did not take their first lead of the game until they went ahead 48-47 with 1:20 remaining. The Redhawks slowed the game down (57 possessions) and got a big night from Nathan Peavy (22-11 dub-dub). But Illinois held Miami to just seven points over the final 14 minutes and got the win. Shaun Pruitt led the Illini with a 12-10 dub-dub. (Box score.)
Southern Illinois beat Minnesota 69-53 in consolation-bracket action at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando. The Gophers coughed up the ball 22 times in a 67-possession game (Kevin Payton recorded five turnovers in just 11 minutes) and were beaten, slightly, on the boards by the Salukis. Spencer Tollackson returned from a bout with stomach flu but recorded just four points and three boards in 25 minutes. Brandon Smith led Minnesota in shots (10) and points (14). (Box score (pdf).)
Ohio State beat Youngstown State 91-57 in Columbus. Ivan Harris came off the bench to hit 3-of-5 threes and led the Buckeyes with 19 points. Mike Conley Jr. recorded five steals in just 23 minutes. (Box score.)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--Saturday!
Arizona State beat Iowa 67-64 in Tempe. Despite having started the game in an 11-0 hole, the Hawkeyes led 60-48 with 5:38 to play. From that point on, however, Steve Alford watched as his team gave up five threes to four different Sun Devils. For the game ASU shot 62.5 percent on their threes. Adam Haluska led Iowa in shots (17) and points (24). (Box score.)
Illinois beat Bradley 75-71 in final-round action at the Chicago Invitational, played whimsically enough in Hoffman Estates at the spanking-new Sears Centre. Oracular Illini observer Mark Tupper succinctly sums up the game and the holiday weekend for Illinois: "a slow start, wobbly free-throw shooting, clamp-down defense, steady rally and a host of different heroes." The Illini trailed by as many as 11 but the return of Jamar Smith (who scored 14 points in 17 minutes a mere 12 days after suffering a high ankle sprain that was supposed to have sidelined him for the obligatory "four to six weeks") helped nudge Illinois to the win. Warren Carter led the Illini with 17 points while Chester Frazier recorded the exceedingly rare ascending numbers points-assists dub-dub: 10 points and 11 assists with just one turnover. (Box score.)
Wisconsin beat Auburn 77-63 at the South Padre Invitational in Texas. The Badgers led throughout and dominated on the offensive glass (16 boards in 35 chances) to give Bo Ryan his 500th career victory. Kammron Taylor led Wisconsin with 16 points. (Box score (pdf).)
Penn State beat St. Joseph's 65-61 in State College. The Nittany Lions trailed by eight with 1:20 remaining before Danny Morrissey scored eight straight points, three of which came on a banked-in three with 25 seconds left. Jamelle Cornley posted an 18-10 dub-dub and was a monster on the offensive glass, pulling down seven of his team's 14 boards on that end. Geary Claxton saw his first action since breaking a bone in his hand in an exhibition game on November 1 and recorded a key block in the game's final seconds. Phil Martelli didn't see it that way, thought perhaps a foul was in order, and got T'd up, thus furnishing the home team with the final margin of victory. (Box score (pdf).)
Michigan State beat Oakland 71-53 in East Lansing, a game which the Spartans led 40-13 at the half. Drew Neitzel led MSU in shots (15), points (21), assists (seven), and turnovers (five). Marquise Gray posted a 14-12 dub-dub in 26 minutes for the home team. (Box score.)
Northwestern beat North Florida 40-39 in Evanston. On the game's 51st and final possession, off a missed three by Craig Moore, Kevin Coble grabbed an offensive rebound and put the ball in with 3.2 seconds remaining for the game-winner. NU won't get many W's where they shoot 16 percent on their threes (4-of-25) or where their leading scorer records just eight points (Tim Doyle), but then the Ospreys made just 13 of 42 two-point shots. That helped. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Maryland-Baltimore County 66-54 in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines owned the offensive glass (14 boards out of 30 chances) on an afternoon where they were cold from outside (4-of-20 on their threes). Courtney Sims posted an 18-12 dub-dub for the victors. (No word on whether subtle dominance was maintained for a second consecutive game.) Note: Michigan's outside shooting's been horrendous during their 7-0 start, hitting just 28.2 percent of their threes. (Box score.)
The holiday in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Montana beat Minnesota 72-65 in consolation-bracket action at the Old Spice Classic in Orlando, capping an 0-3 trip to Disney World for the Gophers. The cumulative numbers from the three games are not pretty: nearly 41 percent of Minnesota's shots were threes, of which they made just 30.4 percent. While in Florida the Gophers scored just 0.86 points per possession against opponents from the MAAC, Missouri Valley, and Big Sky. "We came down here and found out a lot about ourselves," said Dan Monson. "Unfortunately, we don't like what we found out." Dan Coleman led Minnesota with 13 points. (Special kudos go out to Bryan Ellis of the Grizzlies for posting the Bold Statistical Extremist Line of the Year So Far: 10 points, 0 FGAs, 10 assists, seven turnovers, and four steals.) (Box score (pdf).)
Oh, yeah--there's this other gig this week....
Welcome to the ACC-Big Ten Challenge! Truly this is the Iowa Caucuses of hoops: too early, over-hyped, and patently artificial, yet a genuinely compelling competitive spectacle. Play opens tonight with Michigan taking on NC State in Raleigh (ESPN2, 7ET).
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:00 AM
Wednesday, November 22, 2006
Reduced-calorie edition
Back with bounteous hearty prose Monday. Have a good holiday.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Purdue beat Oklahoma 74-71 yesterday in consolation-bracket action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational. In a game that was tight the whole way, Carl Landry scored 30 points on just 13 shots and hit 10-of-12 free throws. Sooners coach Jeff Capel was impressed: "Landry was a man out there today. He was by far the best player on the floor." Gordon Watt added 11 boards for the Boilers. (Box score.) The Boilers will play DePaul today at 2 ET (ESPN2).
Iowa State beat Minnesota 68-63 in Minneapolis last night. The Gophers led by 10 in the second half but Mike Taylor scored 25 of his 33 points after halftime to lead the Cyclones to the come-from-behind win. Confronted with long and aggressive perimeter defenders, Taylor hit upon a stratagem that coaches usually prohibit: simply bringing the ball up to the three-point line and launching a shot before the possession's first pass. On this night it worked. "There were plenty of times where guys had hands in his face," Lawrence McKenzie said of Taylor's performance. "Once he got in a zone it was hard to stop him." (Dan Monson wasn't so sure: "Defensively you have to dictate that guys don't get into a rhythm.") Spencer Tollackson recorded an admirable 24-13 dub-dub but appeared to fatigue down the stretch. McKenzie hit 4-of-6 threes but his teammates were 2-of-12 outside the arc. (Box score (pdf).)
Penn State beat Bucknell 63-60 in OT last night in State College. Mike Walker hit a three as the horn sounded to give the Nittany Lions the win. "I didn't know if there was 10 seconds left or if my shot didn't count," Walker said afterward. "You just hope to get it off in time." (Walker actually turned down a scholarship offer from Bucknell.) Penn State led by as many 13 in the second half but the Bison went on a 13-0 run to force the OT. The Lions attempted no fewer than 26 threes (and made nine) on only 39 overall FGAs. Ask me, I won't say no, how could I? Given the start in place of Walker, Danny Morrissey logged 42 minutes and led Penn State in shots and points (21). In a game where 46 fouls were whistled, two players from each team fouled out, including PSU's Brandon Hassell, who did so in just 22 minutes. (Box score (pdf).)...Injury note: freshman forward D.J. Jackson is expected to be out for "several weeks" with a stress fracture.
Northwestern beat Brown 64-40 in Evanston last night. Fact: Brown and Michigan State played a 51-possession game on November 8. Fact: Northwestern and DePaul played a 50-possession game last Tuesday. Conclusion: I thought there was a good chance that last night's contest between Northwestern and Brown might just attain that most extreme level of slowness and come in under 50 possessions, shattering the yawn barrier, as it were. Man, was I wrong! Instead the Wildcats and the Bears treated fans to no less than 58 possessions--it was a track meet! (Um, relatively speaking.) In a game where Bill Carmody's men, uncharacteristically, chose not to shoot threes, "playmaker" and "unconventional college basketball star" Tim Doyle led the 'Cats in minutes, shots, assists (eight), and points (17). Bold statistical extremist Tim Doyle, Wonk salutes you! And so does your coach--sort of: "He should play like that more often," Carmody said of Doyle. (Box score.) And if glacial slowness is your thing, it turns out that last night you needed to steer north of Chicago....
Wisconsin beat Delaware State 64-52 last night in Madison. Don't be fooled by the (kind of) normal point total: there were only 49 possessions in this game, making it the slowest game involving a Big Ten team since at least 2003-04. Alando Tucker stayed away from threes and had a good shooting night (10-of-16) to lead the Badgers with 25 points. Brian Butch added an 18-10 dub-dub for the home team. BONUS very sophisticated analysis! A dub-dub achieved in 27 minutes in a game with just 49 possessions is very good. ("Brian played a whale of a game," Bo Ryan said afterward.) Wisconsin also owned their offensive glass, pulling down 13 boards on 25 chances. On the down side, the Hornets shot far better than any other Badger opponent so far this season, giving Ryan some good need-for-improvement material to use with his players. "Anybody that's played knows what kind of game that was," Ryan said later. "The other team is hot, you're doing OK, shooting-wise....And if they're going to hit those (shots) for 40 minutes, you're on the right-hand (losing) side." (Box score (pdf).)
Michigan State beat Vermont 66-46 in East Lansing last night. Despite Drew Neitzel's best efforts (see below), the Spartans suffered through their poorest shooting of the year (41.9 effective FG pct.). Fortunately for the Breslin Center faithful the Catamounts were even worse from the field (34.8 eFG). Neitzel did his best Marchello Vealy imitation and had a night for the scrapbook, hitting 7-of-8 threes and leading MSU in minutes, shots, rebounds (eight--"I don't know what happened there," the "legit 5-11 3/4" Neitzel said afterward; "I don't know if I even got eight in a high school game"), and points (26). But Tom Izzo was focused on the rest of his team: "It's tough to win a game and not feel good about it, but I really don't." (Box score.)
Illinois beat Savannah State 81-34 last night in Champaign. Rich McBride returned from a four-game suspension stemming from his September DUI arrest and, playing like a man making up for lost time, came off the bench and shot 10 threes in 27 minutes (he made four). Chester Frazier led the Illini with 17 points in a game where nine Illinois players saw at least 11 minutes of action. The Tigers made three of 22 two-point shots. (Box score.)
Michigan plays Youngstown State tonight in Ann Arbor. Speaking of whom....
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Basketball? In Ann Arbor? They've started?
Hey, John,
I'm a U of M alum who's yet to see a minute of our team this year. Our starting five is comprised of fairly known commodities, but I'm concerned about our bench. We are on the cusp of most NCAA tourney projections, and given recent history, that is about right.
I read the box score from the Harvard game the other day--looked like a few frosh got at least some PT, with Ekpe Udoh turning in a particularly pretty decent line. If we're going to break this tourney drought, we're going to need some significant contribution from the reserves. That may be especially true of Udoh as, after Courtney Sims, we're pretty thin down low.
What's your assessment of our kids on the pine?
Jay L.
Chicago, IL
P.S. A one-loss USC, Florida or Arkansas should play 01/08. Otherwise, I'd love another shot.
Standard it's-early disclaimer applies, of course....
Udoh appears to have established nice shot-blocking chops already and now needs to show that he can hit the boards. (By the way, I know he's not a reserve but I have to mention that Brent Petway's been a monster on the glass so far this season--22.2 rebound percentage.)
And if your query is open to non-freshmen on the pine, then let's note that Jevohn Shepherd's been a menace to opposing offenses, recording a laudably felonious 5.7 steals for every 100 possessions, albeit in limited action.
¶ 6:35 AM
Back with bounteous hearty prose Monday. Have a good holiday.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Purdue beat Oklahoma 74-71 yesterday in consolation-bracket action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational. In a game that was tight the whole way, Carl Landry scored 30 points on just 13 shots and hit 10-of-12 free throws. Sooners coach Jeff Capel was impressed: "Landry was a man out there today. He was by far the best player on the floor." Gordon Watt added 11 boards for the Boilers. (Box score.) The Boilers will play DePaul today at 2 ET (ESPN2).
Iowa State beat Minnesota 68-63 in Minneapolis last night. The Gophers led by 10 in the second half but Mike Taylor scored 25 of his 33 points after halftime to lead the Cyclones to the come-from-behind win. Confronted with long and aggressive perimeter defenders, Taylor hit upon a stratagem that coaches usually prohibit: simply bringing the ball up to the three-point line and launching a shot before the possession's first pass. On this night it worked. "There were plenty of times where guys had hands in his face," Lawrence McKenzie said of Taylor's performance. "Once he got in a zone it was hard to stop him." (Dan Monson wasn't so sure: "Defensively you have to dictate that guys don't get into a rhythm.") Spencer Tollackson recorded an admirable 24-13 dub-dub but appeared to fatigue down the stretch. McKenzie hit 4-of-6 threes but his teammates were 2-of-12 outside the arc. (Box score (pdf).)
Penn State beat Bucknell 63-60 in OT last night in State College. Mike Walker hit a three as the horn sounded to give the Nittany Lions the win. "I didn't know if there was 10 seconds left or if my shot didn't count," Walker said afterward. "You just hope to get it off in time." (Walker actually turned down a scholarship offer from Bucknell.) Penn State led by as many 13 in the second half but the Bison went on a 13-0 run to force the OT. The Lions attempted no fewer than 26 threes (and made nine) on only 39 overall FGAs. Ask me, I won't say no, how could I? Given the start in place of Walker, Danny Morrissey logged 42 minutes and led Penn State in shots and points (21). In a game where 46 fouls were whistled, two players from each team fouled out, including PSU's Brandon Hassell, who did so in just 22 minutes. (Box score (pdf).)...Injury note: freshman forward D.J. Jackson is expected to be out for "several weeks" with a stress fracture.
Northwestern beat Brown 64-40 in Evanston last night. Fact: Brown and Michigan State played a 51-possession game on November 8. Fact: Northwestern and DePaul played a 50-possession game last Tuesday. Conclusion: I thought there was a good chance that last night's contest between Northwestern and Brown might just attain that most extreme level of slowness and come in under 50 possessions, shattering the yawn barrier, as it were. Man, was I wrong! Instead the Wildcats and the Bears treated fans to no less than 58 possessions--it was a track meet! (Um, relatively speaking.) In a game where Bill Carmody's men, uncharacteristically, chose not to shoot threes, "playmaker" and "unconventional college basketball star" Tim Doyle led the 'Cats in minutes, shots, assists (eight), and points (17). Bold statistical extremist Tim Doyle, Wonk salutes you! And so does your coach--sort of: "He should play like that more often," Carmody said of Doyle. (Box score.) And if glacial slowness is your thing, it turns out that last night you needed to steer north of Chicago....
Wisconsin beat Delaware State 64-52 last night in Madison. Don't be fooled by the (kind of) normal point total: there were only 49 possessions in this game, making it the slowest game involving a Big Ten team since at least 2003-04. Alando Tucker stayed away from threes and had a good shooting night (10-of-16) to lead the Badgers with 25 points. Brian Butch added an 18-10 dub-dub for the home team. BONUS very sophisticated analysis! A dub-dub achieved in 27 minutes in a game with just 49 possessions is very good. ("Brian played a whale of a game," Bo Ryan said afterward.) Wisconsin also owned their offensive glass, pulling down 13 boards on 25 chances. On the down side, the Hornets shot far better than any other Badger opponent so far this season, giving Ryan some good need-for-improvement material to use with his players. "Anybody that's played knows what kind of game that was," Ryan said later. "The other team is hot, you're doing OK, shooting-wise....And if they're going to hit those (shots) for 40 minutes, you're on the right-hand (losing) side." (Box score (pdf).)
Michigan State beat Vermont 66-46 in East Lansing last night. Despite Drew Neitzel's best efforts (see below), the Spartans suffered through their poorest shooting of the year (41.9 effective FG pct.). Fortunately for the Breslin Center faithful the Catamounts were even worse from the field (34.8 eFG). Neitzel did his best Marchello Vealy imitation and had a night for the scrapbook, hitting 7-of-8 threes and leading MSU in minutes, shots, rebounds (eight--"I don't know what happened there," the "legit 5-11 3/4" Neitzel said afterward; "I don't know if I even got eight in a high school game"), and points (26). But Tom Izzo was focused on the rest of his team: "It's tough to win a game and not feel good about it, but I really don't." (Box score.)
Illinois beat Savannah State 81-34 last night in Champaign. Rich McBride returned from a four-game suspension stemming from his September DUI arrest and, playing like a man making up for lost time, came off the bench and shot 10 threes in 27 minutes (he made four). Chester Frazier led the Illini with 17 points in a game where nine Illinois players saw at least 11 minutes of action. The Tigers made three of 22 two-point shots. (Box score.)
Michigan plays Youngstown State tonight in Ann Arbor. Speaking of whom....
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Basketball? In Ann Arbor? They've started?
Hey, John,
I'm a U of M alum who's yet to see a minute of our team this year. Our starting five is comprised of fairly known commodities, but I'm concerned about our bench. We are on the cusp of most NCAA tourney projections, and given recent history, that is about right.
I read the box score from the Harvard game the other day--looked like a few frosh got at least some PT, with Ekpe Udoh turning in a particularly pretty decent line. If we're going to break this tourney drought, we're going to need some significant contribution from the reserves. That may be especially true of Udoh as, after Courtney Sims, we're pretty thin down low.
What's your assessment of our kids on the pine?
Jay L.
Chicago, IL
P.S. A one-loss USC, Florida or Arkansas should play 01/08. Otherwise, I'd love another shot.
Standard it's-early disclaimer applies, of course....
Udoh appears to have established nice shot-blocking chops already and now needs to show that he can hit the boards. (By the way, I know he's not a reserve but I have to mention that Brent Petway's been a monster on the glass so far this season--22.2 rebound percentage.)
And if your query is open to non-freshmen on the pine, then let's note that Jevohn Shepherd's been a menace to opposing offenses, recording a laudably felonious 5.7 steals for every 100 possessions, albeit in limited action.
¶ 6:35 AM
Tuesday, November 21, 2006
Meet the first outliers
Way too early, of course. But interesting....
Wisconsin opponents are scoring just 0.70 points per possession. Then again, the Badgers have played the easiest schedule in the Big Ten thus far.
Ohio State, pre-Oden, is a force to be reckoned with, scoring 1.18 points per possession against a schedule that hasn't been murderers' row, perhaps, but has still been quite respectable (e.g., Loyola).
Minnesota opponents are shooting 18.6 percent on their threes.
Illinois has played one of the easier schedules of any Big Ten team thus far and their glittering numbers reflect that (45.9 3FG pct., just 0.74 opponent points per possession, etc.). But here's a number that's ugly: defensive rebounding. So far this year the Illini are getting only 67.4 percent of the possible rebounds on the defensive end. (Which in itself isn't bad, of course, but given the competition it is.) In this year's three-guard lineup, boards on the defensive glass may well be fewer than in the past. The FG defense will have to be strong.
Northwestern has taken Bill Carmody's one-act play to heart! The Wildcats have turned the ball over on just 14.9 percent of their possessions. Unfortunately they're hitting only 31.6 percent of their (numerous) threes.
Penn State is struggling with something they did quite respectably last year: outside shooting. The Nittany Lions are hitting just 27.1 percent of their threes.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Georgia Tech beat Purdue 79-61 last night in first-round action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational. Hoary old conference stereotypes notwithstanding, it was the ACC team that owned the boards in this game (50.0 offensive rebound pct.; 72.1 defensive) and the Big Ten team that jacked up a ton of threes and missed them (4-of-24). Carl Landry led the Boilers with 14 points while David Teague did everything in his power to illustrate the validity of comments made in my Purdue preview by going 2-of-9 on his threes. Freshman Boiler Chris Kramer said Purdue's shooting woes were due to good D by the Yellow Jackets: "Their pressure defense sped us up a lot. And when they were closing out on shooters, their guys were 6-3 or 6-4. They are running at you when you're trying to get shots off. You hurry your shot, and our shots were off." For more, see the spanking good recap from long-suffering but now more hopeful Boiler fan Matt May. (Box score.)
Villanova beat Iowa 89-60 in the consolation game of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands last night. The Wildcats pounded their offensive glass (15 boards out of 29 possible) and hit threes virtually at will (14-of-27) to score 1.34 points per possession, the worst defensive performance by a Steve Alford team since at least 2003-04. Add in the fact that the Hawkeyes responded to Villanova's press by coughing the ball up 22 times in a 66-possession game and you have an honest to goodness blowout. Adam Haluska led Iowa in shots and points (18). Tyler Smith recorded the season's most dubious dub-dub thus far: 12 points and 10 turnovers. "We didn't play at our pace," Smith said afterward. Wow, 66 possessions is too fast? Is Iowa the new Northwestern? Stay tuned! (Box score.)
Ohio State beat San Francisco 82-60 in Columbus last night. Seldom has the West Virginia-in-2006 lesson been on more vivid display: despite posting, by far, their worst shooting of the year, the Buckeyes recorded their best offensive showing of the year, scoring 1.23 points per possession. How? By turning the ball over just six times in a 66-possession game. (OK, 19 offensive boards on 42 chances didn't hurt, either.)...Until Greg Oden hits the floor, it would appear that the following words can be put into auto-text: Daequan Cook came off the bench and led OSU in shots and points (20). Mike Conley Jr. missed a dub-dub by a hair, recording 12 points and nine assists....San Francisco coach Jessie Evans is impressed with these Buckeyes, even pre-Oden: "They seem to have a lot of fun together. They seem to enjoy their roles and know their roles…that compensates for their lack of experience." (Box score.)
Minnesota plays Iowa State tonight in Minneapolis. Spencer Tollackson is listed as day-to-day after appearing to injure his left ankle Friday night in the Gophers' win against Long Island....First-year Cyclone coach Greg McDermott has only eight eligible players on scholarship.
Penn State plays Bucknell in State College tonight. Ed DeChellis says the Bison "will be the best team we've played by far, so far"--troubling, in as much as the Nittany Lions are coming off an eight-point home loss to Stony Brook.
Northwestern plays Brown tonight in Evanston. The Bears are coached by former Wildcat assistant Craig Robinson.
Illinois plays Savannah State in Champaign tonight, a game that will mark Rich McBride's return to action after serving a four-game suspension for his September DUI arrest. But in light of the strong play to date of starting guards Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, and Calvin Brock, Bruce Weber is doing his best Norman Dale and saying his team is on the floor, so to speak. "There's no way I would change the lineup," Weber says. "First of all, these guys have played really well. Rich hasn't played a game. Until things somehow go differently, these guys are the starters." For his part Frazier sounds happy to have McBride back: "Forty minutes hurts....This is going to make us a lot deeper."
Michigan State plays Vermont tonight in East Lansing. Tom Izzo's name has been mentioned for the opening as head coach of the Michigan State football team--and Izzo's not rejecting it entirely. If someone asked him if he would be interested, what would he say? "I would have to say no, but I'd probably deep down have to say yeah, I would." He also noted he'd had an opportunity to coach defensive backs at Cal State Fullerton 25 years ago. (Oracular Spartan observer Steve Grinczel sorts it all out here.)...Goran Suton needs to lose the "deer-in-the-headlights-look," according to Izzo, who also met with Matt Trannon yesterday to discuss whether or not the combination football-basketball player will join the basketball team this season. No decisions yet.
Wisconsin sophomore Marcus Landry says he feels like he's "starting over"--in a good way....Profile of redshirt freshman Mickey Perry here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:37 AM
Way too early, of course. But interesting....
Wisconsin opponents are scoring just 0.70 points per possession. Then again, the Badgers have played the easiest schedule in the Big Ten thus far.
Ohio State, pre-Oden, is a force to be reckoned with, scoring 1.18 points per possession against a schedule that hasn't been murderers' row, perhaps, but has still been quite respectable (e.g., Loyola).
Minnesota opponents are shooting 18.6 percent on their threes.
Illinois has played one of the easier schedules of any Big Ten team thus far and their glittering numbers reflect that (45.9 3FG pct., just 0.74 opponent points per possession, etc.). But here's a number that's ugly: defensive rebounding. So far this year the Illini are getting only 67.4 percent of the possible rebounds on the defensive end. (Which in itself isn't bad, of course, but given the competition it is.) In this year's three-guard lineup, boards on the defensive glass may well be fewer than in the past. The FG defense will have to be strong.
Northwestern has taken Bill Carmody's one-act play to heart! The Wildcats have turned the ball over on just 14.9 percent of their possessions. Unfortunately they're hitting only 31.6 percent of their (numerous) threes.
Penn State is struggling with something they did quite respectably last year: outside shooting. The Nittany Lions are hitting just 27.1 percent of their threes.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Georgia Tech beat Purdue 79-61 last night in first-round action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational. Hoary old conference stereotypes notwithstanding, it was the ACC team that owned the boards in this game (50.0 offensive rebound pct.; 72.1 defensive) and the Big Ten team that jacked up a ton of threes and missed them (4-of-24). Carl Landry led the Boilers with 14 points while David Teague did everything in his power to illustrate the validity of comments made in my Purdue preview by going 2-of-9 on his threes. Freshman Boiler Chris Kramer said Purdue's shooting woes were due to good D by the Yellow Jackets: "Their pressure defense sped us up a lot. And when they were closing out on shooters, their guys were 6-3 or 6-4. They are running at you when you're trying to get shots off. You hurry your shot, and our shots were off." For more, see the spanking good recap from long-suffering but now more hopeful Boiler fan Matt May. (Box score.)
Villanova beat Iowa 89-60 in the consolation game of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands last night. The Wildcats pounded their offensive glass (15 boards out of 29 possible) and hit threes virtually at will (14-of-27) to score 1.34 points per possession, the worst defensive performance by a Steve Alford team since at least 2003-04. Add in the fact that the Hawkeyes responded to Villanova's press by coughing the ball up 22 times in a 66-possession game and you have an honest to goodness blowout. Adam Haluska led Iowa in shots and points (18). Tyler Smith recorded the season's most dubious dub-dub thus far: 12 points and 10 turnovers. "We didn't play at our pace," Smith said afterward. Wow, 66 possessions is too fast? Is Iowa the new Northwestern? Stay tuned! (Box score.)
Ohio State beat San Francisco 82-60 in Columbus last night. Seldom has the West Virginia-in-2006 lesson been on more vivid display: despite posting, by far, their worst shooting of the year, the Buckeyes recorded their best offensive showing of the year, scoring 1.23 points per possession. How? By turning the ball over just six times in a 66-possession game. (OK, 19 offensive boards on 42 chances didn't hurt, either.)...Until Greg Oden hits the floor, it would appear that the following words can be put into auto-text: Daequan Cook came off the bench and led OSU in shots and points (20). Mike Conley Jr. missed a dub-dub by a hair, recording 12 points and nine assists....San Francisco coach Jessie Evans is impressed with these Buckeyes, even pre-Oden: "They seem to have a lot of fun together. They seem to enjoy their roles and know their roles…that compensates for their lack of experience." (Box score.)
Minnesota plays Iowa State tonight in Minneapolis. Spencer Tollackson is listed as day-to-day after appearing to injure his left ankle Friday night in the Gophers' win against Long Island....First-year Cyclone coach Greg McDermott has only eight eligible players on scholarship.
Penn State plays Bucknell in State College tonight. Ed DeChellis says the Bison "will be the best team we've played by far, so far"--troubling, in as much as the Nittany Lions are coming off an eight-point home loss to Stony Brook.
Northwestern plays Brown tonight in Evanston. The Bears are coached by former Wildcat assistant Craig Robinson.
Illinois plays Savannah State in Champaign tonight, a game that will mark Rich McBride's return to action after serving a four-game suspension for his September DUI arrest. But in light of the strong play to date of starting guards Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, and Calvin Brock, Bruce Weber is doing his best Norman Dale and saying his team is on the floor, so to speak. "There's no way I would change the lineup," Weber says. "First of all, these guys have played really well. Rich hasn't played a game. Until things somehow go differently, these guys are the starters." For his part Frazier sounds happy to have McBride back: "Forty minutes hurts....This is going to make us a lot deeper."
Michigan State plays Vermont tonight in East Lansing. Tom Izzo's name has been mentioned for the opening as head coach of the Michigan State football team--and Izzo's not rejecting it entirely. If someone asked him if he would be interested, what would he say? "I would have to say no, but I'd probably deep down have to say yeah, I would." He also noted he'd had an opportunity to coach defensive backs at Cal State Fullerton 25 years ago. (Oracular Spartan observer Steve Grinczel sorts it all out here.)...Goran Suton needs to lose the "deer-in-the-headlights-look," according to Izzo, who also met with Matt Trannon yesterday to discuss whether or not the combination football-basketball player will join the basketball team this season. No decisions yet.
Wisconsin sophomore Marcus Landry says he feels like he's "starting over"--in a good way....Profile of redshirt freshman Mickey Perry here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:37 AM
Monday, November 20, 2006
Mid-Majority Wonk
(With apologies to Kyle Whelliston--hey, he aped me first.)
I moved to Indy three months ago and live within easy walking distance of Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University. On Saturday night I put the four-year-old Official Wonk Son on my shoulders and headed down the hill on 52nd Street to see the Bulldogs play Illinois-Springfield.
In no particular order....
Forgive the gushing of a first-time visitor, but: what an absolute jewel of a venue for college hoops. Hinkle was built in 1928 and the Indiana state high school tournament was played here from 1928 to 1971. But you doubtless know Hinkle as the venerable old arena where Hickory High played the championship game in Hoosiers. (Norman Dale: "It is big.")...
Attendance is sparse to see Butler take on the visiting Prairie Stars--all the better for the Gasaways, as we're handed free tickets for first-row balcony seats directly behind the basket by a kindly man outside the gates who thinks my kid is cute. "Just cheer loud for Butler," he instructs us. We're directly above the band and between numbers I explain to my companion that "shots behind that blue line are worth three points if they go in." He quickly catches on and narrates the Bulldogs' warm-ups for me: "Two points! Two points! Three points!"...
Strictly speaking, Butler has two bulldogs: one's a student doing wacky antics in an oversized-head-based outfit; the other's the real deal--and he too is wacky. After the national anthem the bulldog mascot decides he wants to remain on the court and has to be dragged by the leash quite forcefully off the court. My companion thinks this basketball stuff is very entertaining already....
The game starts while Michigan and Ohio State are wrapping up their game in some other sport. I've DVR'd the game and have no knowledge of its contents--until a guy in Ohio State gear breezes into section 11 with four minutes to go in the first half and gives a triumphant "O-H" to a fellow Buckeye, real or imagined, in the balcony.....
UIS is coached by former Iowa Hawkeye and Boston Celtic Kevin Gamble. Like me, Gamble's a Springfield native. He is also one of the most serene sideline presences I have ever seen in the coach's box. The Prairie Stars play a 1-2-2 full-court press just like the Hawkeyes did in Gamble's day under Tom Davis. But without Brad Lohaus as the "1," this version's somewhat less disruptive.....
Every time Butler makes a three, the PA announcer booms: "That's an MCL Cafeteria Tray for a Trey!" He then announces a fan's name and says they can report to the scorer's table for a free meal. But the scorer's table is separated by a wide aisle from the first row and no one crosses that gulf to get their freebie....
During a timeout the cheerleaders are throwing rolled-up t-shirts into the crowd. No air guns here: the cheerleaders are relying on their own natural attributes. And the particular cheerleader in front of our section--how to best say this--um, is no threat to Johan Santana. Her pitiful toss lands in the band and she is mocked by the horn section instantly. One alert band member then tosses the shirt up to the guy two seats down from us. Up until now I've been pointing at my kid--and the kindly gent hands over the coveted item. It is immediately put on, it comes down to a four-year-old's shins, and it wins the vocal approval of the assembled fans in row AA.....
Butler won 62-56. (Box score.) And we'll be back for Kent State this Saturday. Need another shirt.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The weekend, of course, began with an event so poetically eerie that it can justly be termed the sports equivalent of July 4, 1826.
As for the hoops....
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Friday!
Maryland beat Michigan State 62-60 in the championship game of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." The Spartans trailed by 11 early in the second half but rallied on the strength of 17 second-half points from Drew Neitzel to make it close at the end. Those pining for the Spartans to return to the good old days of dominance on the boards, please note: Tom Izzo's men owned the glass utterly and completely (51.5 offensive rebound pct.; 79.2 defensive) in this game against a "power"-conference opponent. But the Terps made 16 of 26 two-point shots, many of them dunks and layups off turnovers, and that was the difference. Neitzel led State in shots and points (21). (Box score.)
Stony Brook beat Penn State 59-51 in State College. Facing a Seawolves defense that aggressively doubled Jamelle Cornley (nine points) down low all night, the Nittany Lions responded by shooting threes (44 percent of their attempts)--they missed them (5-of-26) and lost. Cold shooting is a language, can't you read? Sophomore guard Danny Morrissey "led" the Lions with 12 points--only problem there being it took 13 attempted threes to get the mere dozen points. Stony Brook shot 23 free throws; Penn State attempted just five. (Box score (pdf).)
Stanford beat Northwestern 58-53 in Palo Alto. The Wildcats trailed by 12 with six minutes to play but rallied to tie the game at 53 before falling short. NU hit their threes (7-of-17, led by a 3-of-3 performance by Vince Scott) for the first time this season to make this a contest. Ultimately, however, the Cardinal won the game on the interior, hitting 21 of their 35 twos. Tim Doyle was on the floor for every possession (all 57 of them) and led the Wildcats in points (13), assists (six), rebounds (seven), and turnovers (four). Bold statistical extremist Tim Doyle, Wonk salutes you! (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Eastern Kentucky 74-45 in Columbus. The Colonels hung in this one for the first eight minutes before the Buckeyes broke the game open with a 20-2 run. The rebounding was even in this game but everything else favored The OSU, particularly the 26 turnovers that the visitors coughed up in a slow (62-possession) game. Daequan Cook led the Buckeyes in shots and points (22). Mike Conley Jr. went 6-of-6 from the field and recorded three steals. (Box score.)
Illinois beat Georgia Southern 85-50 in Champaign. Talk about Izzo depth! No fewer than nine Illini players recorded at least 11 minutes--this despite the absence of three starters. (Although the fact that Illinois had a 20-point lead within the game's first 13 minutes may also have had something to do with it.) The Illini beat the Eagles silly on the offensive glass (48.4 offensive rebound pct.), were strangely underwhelming on the defensive boards (60.5 defensive rebound pct.), and continued to be very generous with turnovers (coughing the ball up 19 times in a 73-possession game--some of which, granted, is whistle-happy refs in November). Trent Meacham led Illinois in minutes and points (19). (Box score.)
Indiana beat Indiana State 73-66 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers led by 20 with a little under 13 minutes remaining but the Sycamores managed to make it close down the stretch. Lance Stemler hit 5-of-9 threes and led IU with 18 points. Armon Bassett recorded four assists in ten minutes. Free throws helped the home team, as IU shot 32 and ISU attempted just 13. (Box score.)
Iowa beat Toledo 78-65 in first-round action at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands. In a game where the shooting was about the same on both sides, the Hawkeyes won thanks to total domination on the boards and a +14 in free throw attempts. Tyler Smith came off the bench and led Iowa in shots, assists (five), and points (28). Adam Haluska had a ghastly outing, hitting just 2-of-15 shots and turning the ball over five times. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Harvard 82-50 in Ann Arbor. Total domination on the interior: the Wolverines had their way on the boards and made 73.7 percent of their twos in a 72-possession game in which the two teams combined for 45 turnovers. Ron Coleman led Michigan in minutes, shots, and points (20), while Courtney Sims posted perhaps the quintessential Courtney Sims line: great scoring efficiency (1.62 PPWS) on too few shots (six--Coleman took 16), alongside zero assists and six turnovers. (Box score.)
Minnesota beat Long Island 70-54 in Minneapolis. Lawrence McKenzie hit 5-of-8 threes and led the Gophers with 24 points, while Dan Coleman fired up shots like an NBA all-star game reserve (17 in 30 minutes) and scored 23. Spencer Tollackson recorded four blocks in 18 minutes. (Box score (pdf). I don't believe I've ever seen an official box score where the home team is on the top. Boldly iconoclastic official box score formatters of the University of Minnesota, Wonk salutes you!)
Purdue beat Western Carolina 82-57 in West Lafayette. Marcus Green came off the bench to lead the Boilermakers with 15 points. Fellow reserve Keaton Grant recorded seven assists in 23 minutes. Matt Painter gave eight of his players 15+ minutes in this game. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Alabama beat Iowa 72-60 in the semifinals of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands. The Hawkeyes ran into foul trouble and--with Kurt Looby, Seth Gorney, and Cyrus Tate alternately sidelined or worried--the Tide capitalized, hitting 60 percent of their twos and going to the line 22 times. Tyler Smith led Iowa with 19 points and Tony Freeman had the best shooting day of his career, hitting 4-of-9 threes. (Freeman's teammates, however, were 3-of-21, including an 0-for-9 from Adam Haluska.) The Hawkeyes play Villanova today in the Paradise Jam consolation game. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Chicago State 90-69 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers never trailed in this game; D.J. White posted an 18-11 dub-dub in 29 minutes while Roderick Wilmont came off the bench to lead IU in shots and scored 15. Kelvin Sampson chose to go with a notably youthful starting lineup for this one and freshman Armon Bassett responded with 10 points and nine assists in 29 minutes. (Box score.)
Illinois beat Florida A&M 84-63 in Champaign. Off a Trent Meacham turnover with one minute gone in the second half the Illini trailed this game by seven but Bruce Weber 's men turned the ball over only three more times and scored 50 points in the game's final 19 minutes to get the W. Meacham led the Illini in shots and points (24), hitting 8-of-13 threes. (The eight makes ties a school record.) Chester Frazier played the full 40 and posted the rare points assists dub-dub (13-10) with just one turnover. Calvin Brock also joined this 40-dub-dub club with a more traditional points-boards couplet of 18-10 to go along with seven assists. Facing a Rattler zone, Illinois posted what may be the highest offensive rebound percentage I've yet seen this season: 67.9. (Box score.)...Injury updates: Brian Randle had abdominal surgery in Philadelphia on Friday to treat his strained groin and is not expected to return until mid-December at the earliest. Jamar Smith has gone from a boot to an air cast on his sprained ankle and Weber sounds more hopeful than a week ago, mentioning a possible return by Smith in time for the Arizona game in Phoenix on December 2.
Wisconsin beat Southern 92-39 in Madison. No Badger played more than 24 minutes in a game that was a blowout from the start. Alando Tucker led Wisconsin in shots and points (16). (Box score (pdf).)
The extended weekend in Big Ten hoops--tonight!
Purdue plays Georgia Tech as part of first-round action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational (5pm ET, ESPN2). David Teague says he and his teammates need to show a little "swagger." The Boilers will face either Oklahoma or Memphis in the second round.
Ohio State plays San Francisco in Columbus. Thad Matta says he stresses shooting in practice: "It’s like taking 20 minutes to run five-on-zero and get all your sets down and (take) no time for shooting. You may run the play well, but (it doesn’t matter if) you can’t make the shot."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
When aberrant rebounding occurs, we'll be there!
Hey, John,
Interesting stat from Saturday's game between Nebraska and Creighton. Nebraska basically missed very few shots, so there were only 16 total rebound opportunities on the Cornhuskers' offensive end. Of these Creighton had 15 defensive rebounds and Nebraska had one offensive board.
Also, in 30 minutes of playing time, Dane Watts of Creighton had 11 of the 15 defensive rebounds (11 of the 16 total rebounds on that end of the court). I am not sure which is more unusual, a team getting only one offensive rebound over the course of a game or a player having a defensive rebound percentage above 90 for a game.
Jack M.
Good catch, Jack! As to which is more unusual, I'd venture to say Watts' feat is the more singular. Northwestern recorded just one offensive board on no less than two occasions last year (at Minnesota and at Illinois).
And then, going back two seasons, there was the historic night in Iowa City, Iowa, on February 12, 2005. Northwestern at Iowa: zero offensive rebounds for the Wildcats.
¶ 6:27 AM
(With apologies to Kyle Whelliston--hey, he aped me first.)
I moved to Indy three months ago and live within easy walking distance of Hinkle Fieldhouse on the campus of Butler University. On Saturday night I put the four-year-old Official Wonk Son on my shoulders and headed down the hill on 52nd Street to see the Bulldogs play Illinois-Springfield.
In no particular order....
Forgive the gushing of a first-time visitor, but: what an absolute jewel of a venue for college hoops. Hinkle was built in 1928 and the Indiana state high school tournament was played here from 1928 to 1971. But you doubtless know Hinkle as the venerable old arena where Hickory High played the championship game in Hoosiers. (Norman Dale: "It is big.")...
Attendance is sparse to see Butler take on the visiting Prairie Stars--all the better for the Gasaways, as we're handed free tickets for first-row balcony seats directly behind the basket by a kindly man outside the gates who thinks my kid is cute. "Just cheer loud for Butler," he instructs us. We're directly above the band and between numbers I explain to my companion that "shots behind that blue line are worth three points if they go in." He quickly catches on and narrates the Bulldogs' warm-ups for me: "Two points! Two points! Three points!"...
Strictly speaking, Butler has two bulldogs: one's a student doing wacky antics in an oversized-head-based outfit; the other's the real deal--and he too is wacky. After the national anthem the bulldog mascot decides he wants to remain on the court and has to be dragged by the leash quite forcefully off the court. My companion thinks this basketball stuff is very entertaining already....
The game starts while Michigan and Ohio State are wrapping up their game in some other sport. I've DVR'd the game and have no knowledge of its contents--until a guy in Ohio State gear breezes into section 11 with four minutes to go in the first half and gives a triumphant "O-H" to a fellow Buckeye, real or imagined, in the balcony.....
UIS is coached by former Iowa Hawkeye and Boston Celtic Kevin Gamble. Like me, Gamble's a Springfield native. He is also one of the most serene sideline presences I have ever seen in the coach's box. The Prairie Stars play a 1-2-2 full-court press just like the Hawkeyes did in Gamble's day under Tom Davis. But without Brad Lohaus as the "1," this version's somewhat less disruptive.....
Every time Butler makes a three, the PA announcer booms: "That's an MCL Cafeteria Tray for a Trey!" He then announces a fan's name and says they can report to the scorer's table for a free meal. But the scorer's table is separated by a wide aisle from the first row and no one crosses that gulf to get their freebie....
During a timeout the cheerleaders are throwing rolled-up t-shirts into the crowd. No air guns here: the cheerleaders are relying on their own natural attributes. And the particular cheerleader in front of our section--how to best say this--um, is no threat to Johan Santana. Her pitiful toss lands in the band and she is mocked by the horn section instantly. One alert band member then tosses the shirt up to the guy two seats down from us. Up until now I've been pointing at my kid--and the kindly gent hands over the coveted item. It is immediately put on, it comes down to a four-year-old's shins, and it wins the vocal approval of the assembled fans in row AA.....
Butler won 62-56. (Box score.) And we'll be back for Kent State this Saturday. Need another shirt.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
The weekend, of course, began with an event so poetically eerie that it can justly be termed the sports equivalent of July 4, 1826.
As for the hoops....
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--Friday!
Maryland beat Michigan State 62-60 in the championship game of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." The Spartans trailed by 11 early in the second half but rallied on the strength of 17 second-half points from Drew Neitzel to make it close at the end. Those pining for the Spartans to return to the good old days of dominance on the boards, please note: Tom Izzo's men owned the glass utterly and completely (51.5 offensive rebound pct.; 79.2 defensive) in this game against a "power"-conference opponent. But the Terps made 16 of 26 two-point shots, many of them dunks and layups off turnovers, and that was the difference. Neitzel led State in shots and points (21). (Box score.)
Stony Brook beat Penn State 59-51 in State College. Facing a Seawolves defense that aggressively doubled Jamelle Cornley (nine points) down low all night, the Nittany Lions responded by shooting threes (44 percent of their attempts)--they missed them (5-of-26) and lost. Cold shooting is a language, can't you read? Sophomore guard Danny Morrissey "led" the Lions with 12 points--only problem there being it took 13 attempted threes to get the mere dozen points. Stony Brook shot 23 free throws; Penn State attempted just five. (Box score (pdf).)
Stanford beat Northwestern 58-53 in Palo Alto. The Wildcats trailed by 12 with six minutes to play but rallied to tie the game at 53 before falling short. NU hit their threes (7-of-17, led by a 3-of-3 performance by Vince Scott) for the first time this season to make this a contest. Ultimately, however, the Cardinal won the game on the interior, hitting 21 of their 35 twos. Tim Doyle was on the floor for every possession (all 57 of them) and led the Wildcats in points (13), assists (six), rebounds (seven), and turnovers (four). Bold statistical extremist Tim Doyle, Wonk salutes you! (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Eastern Kentucky 74-45 in Columbus. The Colonels hung in this one for the first eight minutes before the Buckeyes broke the game open with a 20-2 run. The rebounding was even in this game but everything else favored The OSU, particularly the 26 turnovers that the visitors coughed up in a slow (62-possession) game. Daequan Cook led the Buckeyes in shots and points (22). Mike Conley Jr. went 6-of-6 from the field and recorded three steals. (Box score.)
Illinois beat Georgia Southern 85-50 in Champaign. Talk about Izzo depth! No fewer than nine Illini players recorded at least 11 minutes--this despite the absence of three starters. (Although the fact that Illinois had a 20-point lead within the game's first 13 minutes may also have had something to do with it.) The Illini beat the Eagles silly on the offensive glass (48.4 offensive rebound pct.), were strangely underwhelming on the defensive boards (60.5 defensive rebound pct.), and continued to be very generous with turnovers (coughing the ball up 19 times in a 73-possession game--some of which, granted, is whistle-happy refs in November). Trent Meacham led Illinois in minutes and points (19). (Box score.)
Indiana beat Indiana State 73-66 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers led by 20 with a little under 13 minutes remaining but the Sycamores managed to make it close down the stretch. Lance Stemler hit 5-of-9 threes and led IU with 18 points. Armon Bassett recorded four assists in ten minutes. Free throws helped the home team, as IU shot 32 and ISU attempted just 13. (Box score.)
Iowa beat Toledo 78-65 in first-round action at the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands. In a game where the shooting was about the same on both sides, the Hawkeyes won thanks to total domination on the boards and a +14 in free throw attempts. Tyler Smith came off the bench and led Iowa in shots, assists (five), and points (28). Adam Haluska had a ghastly outing, hitting just 2-of-15 shots and turning the ball over five times. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Harvard 82-50 in Ann Arbor. Total domination on the interior: the Wolverines had their way on the boards and made 73.7 percent of their twos in a 72-possession game in which the two teams combined for 45 turnovers. Ron Coleman led Michigan in minutes, shots, and points (20), while Courtney Sims posted perhaps the quintessential Courtney Sims line: great scoring efficiency (1.62 PPWS) on too few shots (six--Coleman took 16), alongside zero assists and six turnovers. (Box score.)
Minnesota beat Long Island 70-54 in Minneapolis. Lawrence McKenzie hit 5-of-8 threes and led the Gophers with 24 points, while Dan Coleman fired up shots like an NBA all-star game reserve (17 in 30 minutes) and scored 23. Spencer Tollackson recorded four blocks in 18 minutes. (Box score (pdf). I don't believe I've ever seen an official box score where the home team is on the top. Boldly iconoclastic official box score formatters of the University of Minnesota, Wonk salutes you!)
Purdue beat Western Carolina 82-57 in West Lafayette. Marcus Green came off the bench to lead the Boilermakers with 15 points. Fellow reserve Keaton Grant recorded seven assists in 23 minutes. Matt Painter gave eight of his players 15+ minutes in this game. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops--yesterday!
Alabama beat Iowa 72-60 in the semifinals of the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands. The Hawkeyes ran into foul trouble and--with Kurt Looby, Seth Gorney, and Cyrus Tate alternately sidelined or worried--the Tide capitalized, hitting 60 percent of their twos and going to the line 22 times. Tyler Smith led Iowa with 19 points and Tony Freeman had the best shooting day of his career, hitting 4-of-9 threes. (Freeman's teammates, however, were 3-of-21, including an 0-for-9 from Adam Haluska.) The Hawkeyes play Villanova today in the Paradise Jam consolation game. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Chicago State 90-69 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers never trailed in this game; D.J. White posted an 18-11 dub-dub in 29 minutes while Roderick Wilmont came off the bench to lead IU in shots and scored 15. Kelvin Sampson chose to go with a notably youthful starting lineup for this one and freshman Armon Bassett responded with 10 points and nine assists in 29 minutes. (Box score.)
Illinois beat Florida A&M 84-63 in Champaign. Off a Trent Meacham turnover with one minute gone in the second half the Illini trailed this game by seven but Bruce Weber 's men turned the ball over only three more times and scored 50 points in the game's final 19 minutes to get the W. Meacham led the Illini in shots and points (24), hitting 8-of-13 threes. (The eight makes ties a school record.) Chester Frazier played the full 40 and posted the rare points assists dub-dub (13-10) with just one turnover. Calvin Brock also joined this 40-dub-dub club with a more traditional points-boards couplet of 18-10 to go along with seven assists. Facing a Rattler zone, Illinois posted what may be the highest offensive rebound percentage I've yet seen this season: 67.9. (Box score.)...Injury updates: Brian Randle had abdominal surgery in Philadelphia on Friday to treat his strained groin and is not expected to return until mid-December at the earliest. Jamar Smith has gone from a boot to an air cast on his sprained ankle and Weber sounds more hopeful than a week ago, mentioning a possible return by Smith in time for the Arizona game in Phoenix on December 2.
Wisconsin beat Southern 92-39 in Madison. No Badger played more than 24 minutes in a game that was a blowout from the start. Alando Tucker led Wisconsin in shots and points (16). (Box score (pdf).)
The extended weekend in Big Ten hoops--tonight!
Purdue plays Georgia Tech as part of first-round action at the EA-Sports Maui Invitational (5pm ET, ESPN2). David Teague says he and his teammates need to show a little "swagger." The Boilers will face either Oklahoma or Memphis in the second round.
Ohio State plays San Francisco in Columbus. Thad Matta says he stresses shooting in practice: "It’s like taking 20 minutes to run five-on-zero and get all your sets down and (take) no time for shooting. You may run the play well, but (it doesn’t matter if) you can’t make the shot."
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
When aberrant rebounding occurs, we'll be there!
Hey, John,
Interesting stat from Saturday's game between Nebraska and Creighton. Nebraska basically missed very few shots, so there were only 16 total rebound opportunities on the Cornhuskers' offensive end. Of these Creighton had 15 defensive rebounds and Nebraska had one offensive board.
Also, in 30 minutes of playing time, Dane Watts of Creighton had 11 of the 15 defensive rebounds (11 of the 16 total rebounds on that end of the court). I am not sure which is more unusual, a team getting only one offensive rebound over the course of a game or a player having a defensive rebound percentage above 90 for a game.
Jack M.
Good catch, Jack! As to which is more unusual, I'd venture to say Watts' feat is the more singular. Northwestern recorded just one offensive board on no less than two occasions last year (at Minnesota and at Illinois).
And then, going back two seasons, there was the historic night in Iowa City, Iowa, on February 12, 2005. Northwestern at Iowa: zero offensive rebounds for the Wildcats.
¶ 6:27 AM
Friday, November 17, 2006
A tribute to Ken Pomeroy
I wrapped up the 11 team previews yesterday (and random acts of injurious happenstance have already left the Illinois walk-around woefully, if temporarily, moot) and so today I thought I'd ditch the profusion of prose and instead go for Pomeroy-style wryly omniscient brevity. It's a considered stylistic evolution! Plus I'm lazy.
And while some might fancy that I "undoubtedly spent much of September and October putting together [the] alphabetically-sensitive preseason walk-arounds," the truth is somewhat less leisurely and a good deal more manic, I assure you. So today I've got my feet propped up.
Back to my old ways Monday.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Drew Neitzel drove to the hoop for the winning score with 2.4 seconds left and Michigan State beat Texas 63-61 in Madison Square Garden last night in the semifinals of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." In a matchup between two precociously young teams, one squad looked the part. And that would be the 'Horns, launching 26 threes and hitting just seven. That included a 1-of-8 from outside the arc from one Kevin Durant, who will indeed be shaking David Stern's hand on a rostrum in this same city next summer but who on this night looked like someone trying to prove he had an outside shot that he didn't have. Freshman Raymar Morgan led the Spartans in shots and points (18), as the men in green displayed Izzo depth (seven players between 16 and 33 minutes) against a quality opponent. State hit 9-of-17 threes, led by Neitzel who went 3-of-6. The Spartans will play Maryland tonight in the championship game. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Don't fear the turtle! (More cowbell!)
In advance of his team's game tonight against Maryland, alert reader Shawn M. returns for his third season of astute Michigan State analysis....
Hi, Wonk,
Excellent win for State tonight. I know it was difficult for most Spartan fans, myself included, to concentrate on basketball with the MSU vs. Penn State gridiron "game of the century" set to kickoff this Saturday, but Izzo's group put together a performance worth remembering in this otherwise oppressively, unacceptably awful autumn for Spartan sports.
Now I'm not sure where we'll end up in February, and I know there will be some cringe-worthy moments along the way, but watching this young team play, goofy turnovers and all, is some kind of fun. I'm quite impressed with Drew Neitzel so far, who's being asked to play a very different role this year. He's now slowing the tempo down, looking for his shot first, and playing something that at least approaches lockdown D. Good stuff.
And goodness, Raymar Morgan has shown up ready to play, hasn't he?
Regards,
Shawn M.
Thanks, Shawn. ¶ 6:23 AM
I wrapped up the 11 team previews yesterday (and random acts of injurious happenstance have already left the Illinois walk-around woefully, if temporarily, moot) and so today I thought I'd ditch the profusion of prose and instead go for Pomeroy-style wryly omniscient brevity. It's a considered stylistic evolution! Plus I'm lazy.
And while some might fancy that I "undoubtedly spent much of September and October putting together [the] alphabetically-sensitive preseason walk-arounds," the truth is somewhat less leisurely and a good deal more manic, I assure you. So today I've got my feet propped up.
Back to my old ways Monday.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Drew Neitzel drove to the hoop for the winning score with 2.4 seconds left and Michigan State beat Texas 63-61 in Madison Square Garden last night in the semifinals of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." In a matchup between two precociously young teams, one squad looked the part. And that would be the 'Horns, launching 26 threes and hitting just seven. That included a 1-of-8 from outside the arc from one Kevin Durant, who will indeed be shaking David Stern's hand on a rostrum in this same city next summer but who on this night looked like someone trying to prove he had an outside shot that he didn't have. Freshman Raymar Morgan led the Spartans in shots and points (18), as the men in green displayed Izzo depth (seven players between 16 and 33 minutes) against a quality opponent. State hit 9-of-17 threes, led by Neitzel who went 3-of-6. The Spartans will play Maryland tonight in the championship game. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Don't fear the turtle! (More cowbell!)
In advance of his team's game tonight against Maryland, alert reader Shawn M. returns for his third season of astute Michigan State analysis....
Hi, Wonk,
Excellent win for State tonight. I know it was difficult for most Spartan fans, myself included, to concentrate on basketball with the MSU vs. Penn State gridiron "game of the century" set to kickoff this Saturday, but Izzo's group put together a performance worth remembering in this otherwise oppressively, unacceptably awful autumn for Spartan sports.
Now I'm not sure where we'll end up in February, and I know there will be some cringe-worthy moments along the way, but watching this young team play, goofy turnovers and all, is some kind of fun. I'm quite impressed with Drew Neitzel so far, who's being asked to play a very different role this year. He's now slowing the tempo down, looking for his shot first, and playing something that at least approaches lockdown D. Good stuff.
And goodness, Raymar Morgan has shown up ready to play, hasn't he?
Regards,
Shawn M.
Thanks, Shawn. ¶ 6:23 AM
Thursday, November 16, 2006
Wisconsin has a shot--if they can shoot
Today I at long last conclude my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto low-turnover, low-eFG pct. group of young men in Madison, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
19-12 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost in first round of NCAA tournament to Arizona, 94-75. (Or did they? Maybe the Badgers really "advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament" and that whole Arizona game was just a Capricorn One-style moon landing hoax. Cool!)
Back
Alando Tucker (18.9 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 9.8 reb. pct., 3.1 assists per 100 possessions, 3.7 TOs per 100 possessions)
Kammron Taylor (14.2 PPG, 1.05 PPWS, 4.9 reb. pct., 4.1 a/100 poss., 4.6 TO/100 poss.)
Brian Butch (10.0 PPG, 1.12 PPWS, 14.1 reb. pct., 3.4 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Michael Flowers (5.9 PPG, 1.12 PPWS, 7.6 reb. pct., 4.8 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Jason Chappell (4.3 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 12.4 reb. pct., 5.5 a/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
Joe Krabbenhoft (3.4 PPG, 0.91 PPWS, 14.7 reb. pct., 5.2 a/100 poss., 4.2 TO/100 poss.)
Kevin Gullikson (3.2 PPG)
Tanner Bronson (3 min. per game)
New (kinda)
Marcus Landry (6-7 F, sat out last 14 games in 2006 due to academic ineligibility)
Greg Stiemsma (6-11 C, sat out last 14 games in 2006 due to academic ineligibility)
New
Trevon Hughes (6-1 G, Queens, NY)
Jason Bohannon (6-2 G, Marion, IA)
Mickey Perry (6-2 G, redshirt freshman)
J.P. Gavinski (6-11 C, Wisconsin Dells, WI)
Brett Valentyn (6-4 G, Verona, WI)
Gone
Ray Nixon (6.2 PPG, 1.11 PPWS, 4.2 reb. pct., 3.8 a/100 poss., 1.6 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Oh yeah? Well, Tanner Bronson could beat up Errek Suhr, pal."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
If such a thing is possible, I think Wisconsin is being simultaneously underrated and overrated this year.
Let's start with Adam Mertz of the Capital Times, for he is teachably optimistic:
With only Ray Nixon gone from last year's team...there are a wealth of options that all bring a little something different to the table, including Greg Stiemsma and Marcus Landry, who by all accounts have brought a new level of energy since returning from academic hiatus. Notably, several of these options appear capable of putting the ball in the hoop consistently on any given night.
Aye, there's the question: putting the ball in the hoop consistently. If the Badgers do that this year the lid is off the can as far as how high this team can go. They already defend. They already take care of the ball. In fact, give me a Wisconsin team that can shoot and I'll give you a team that's on the same level as North Carolina and, yes, Florida. Why not? Those teams both turn the ball over (Carolina particularly). Wisconsin doesn't. So in that sense I think the Badgers are underrated.
But I also think Wisconsin's being overrated in that it's so widely assumed that age alone will equate to improvement and, specifically, good shooting. It didn't work out that way last year for Iowa, to say the least. The Hawkeyes last year returned even more of their minutes and points from the previous season than do the Badgers this year. And Iowa's effective FG pct. "improved" all the way from 49.4 to 49.1--both figures, by the way, are a hair better than the 48.4 eFG pct. Wisconsin posted last year.
You can say, of course, that this Badger team will in fact be much deeper than last year's and so this Iowa-Wisconsin comparison's off-target. Maybe, but my point is in any case more general: shooting is everything and it is fickle. I don't know if Wisconsin will shoot well this year but then Bo Ryan doesn't know either. No one does.
So shooting's a question mark. But I think pretty much everything else on both sides of the ball is likely to adhere to a pretty well-established--and successful--Ryan script. And so I boldly predict: little or no change in offensive rebounding (mediocre by design) and continued excellence in holding on to the ball (a Madison specialty).
Another part of the Ryan script is his willingness to play at the pace that works best in that particular game. The Badgers still suffer from a misconception that they go slow; on the contrary, they actually play at a surprisingly fast pace. Here's a snippet from the industry-standard Blue Ribbon Yearbook:
Ryan said it wasn't a matter of changing the team's style, but rather taking advantage of opportunities. "Sometimes it's just about the number of possessions you have, or whether you're playing with the lead or playing from behind," he said.
"We've never held the ball. We've always tried to get the easiest basket you can get, and if it comes in transition, we'll go get it. But sometimes the way the tempo dictates the game, your number of possessions is higher. With me, it's always about the number of points per possession. We scored one point per possession last year pretty steady, and we were happy with that."
On defense the Badgers were good last year and can be even better this year. In particular, I think Wisconsin can do better on the defensive boards.
The Badgers' numbers on the defensive glass last year weren't bad, mind you. But for a team that was far and away the tallest in the league, doing just a little better than the conference average is puzzling. Especially in light of the fact that Wisconsin's FG defense last year was superb--even better than that of the much-lauded Iowa defense. Meaning if the Badgers had been merely as good as the more diminutive likes of Illinois or Michigan State on the defensive glass, they would have had the best defense in the Big Ten by a healthy margin--indeed, one of the best defenses in the nation. Just a few defensive boards away....
Vintage Ryan
"You're not always going to have your score on the left-hand side. Nobody does that. But we'll match the competitiveness year in and year out of anybody around. The fact that people have bought into that and made this the toughest ticket around, you think we're not proud of that? The players are proud of that. The people who have coached here are, too. That's a pretty good situation."
Every coach talks like that, sure. But when Ryan says it, it actually sounds accurate--it reflects what I see of the Badgers on the court.
The POY in November....Will he be POY in March?
This past Sunday the Indianapolis Star said that Alando Tucker has "offensive skills few can match." I was struck by that passage because it so succinctly captures the precise opposite of my read on Tucker.
Talent? Loaded with it: speed, quickness, and hops. Heart? Beyond question or debate. I especially admire his relentless tenacity and his unfailingly selfless demeanor on a team where, at least last season, he wasn't always getting a ton of offensive help from his teammates. Skills?...
Put it like this: If I'm choosing Big Ten players to be on my team, I take Tucker with my second pick (right after some guy whose name escapes me). But if you ask me why, my answer isn't going to cite any measurable skills. I won't say it's because of his shooting, or his ball handling, or his rebounding, or his passing, or his defense.
I'll say it's because he's Alando Tucker. He'll give me everything he has, lead my team, and make it better. He is the Mateen Cleaves of this generation of Big Ten players.
(ESPN.com likes Tucker, too.)
Baffling statistical anomaly Kammron Taylor, Wonk salutes you!
Kammron Taylor's a good three-point shooter (39.9 percent in '06) and his proficiency from the free throw line (82.9 percent last year) suggests his accurate perimeter shooting is no fluke and is indeed likely to continue. All well and good--but here's the odd part: in 2006 Taylor was an Edvard Munch-level horrific two-point shooter. Hitting an abysmal 37.2 percent of his two-pointers, Taylor ranked 71st out of the 72 Big Ten players who averaged at least 15 minutes per game. (Only the injury-wracked A.J. Ratliff of Indiana struggled more from inside the arc last season. Note also: Taylor last year actually shot better on his threes than on his twos.)
It gets curiouser, for it wasn't just Taylor who struggled from inside the arc in Madison last year. Here's a list of the Big Ten's 15 worst returning two-point shooters....
Worst 2FG percentages, 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. A.J. Ratliff, IN (32.5)
2. Kammron Taylor, WI (37.2)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (37.7)
4. Tony Freeman, IA (38.8)
5. Travis Walton, MSU (40.0)
6. Rich McBride, IL (40.8)
7. Sterling Williams, NU (41.1)
8. Drew Neitzel, MSU (41.3)
9. Chris Lutz, PUR (42.0)
10. Ben Luber, PSU (42.3)
11. Dion Harris, MI (42.3)
12. Dan Coleman, MN (42.7)
13. Jamar Smith, IL (43.2)
14. Jason Chappell, WI (43.3)
15. Michael Flowers, WI (43.7)
(So does the swing offense do a disservice to Taylor by "inverting" him into the interior instead of just letting him float outside the arc? Just asking!)
Taylor appeared to fade badly down the stretch last year and has come back this season notably beefed up and pledging to stay strong.
Stats, schmats
No player in the Big Ten is done a greater disservice by numbers than is Brian Butch when it comes to rebounding. His seemingly mediocre six boards a game last season masks two crucial facts: he only played 60 percent of the available minutes and in the Badger scheme he is instructed to worry less about offensive boards and more about getting back on D. In fact, I rate Butch (19.3 defensive rebound pct.) the third best returning defensive rebounder in the Big Ten coming into this year, behind only Courtney Sims (20.1) and this guy....
Speaking of defensive boards
Joe Krabbenhoft is a monster on the defensive glass (20.0 defensive rebound pct. last year) and records a goodly number of assists--surprising for a monster! As noted above he had a disastrous year shooting the ball but then he was a freshman. And the best thing about freshmen came true for Krabbenhoft this year: he's a sophomore.
My streak of consecutive posts without a pun on Michael Flowers' name continues!
Michael Flowers has reportedly been working on his offensive repertoire but I think he was better to start with than is commonly realized. In effect, Flowers consumes minutes and emits rock-steady Wisconsin-style performance. Along with Butch, he was the most efficient scorer on the team last year and he takes very good care of the ball.
Look fast
Jason Chappell last season was an excellent example of that occasional phenomenon known as the ceremonial starter. He started 30 games last year but averaged five fewer minutes a game than non-starter Flowers. He is very much of that Krabbenhoftian species in that he too has a weirdly high number of assists for one so vertically distinguished.
Landry and Stiemsma return--how big a difference will they make?
We might think we've hardly seen either Marcus Landry or Greg Stiemsma but in actuality both of them appeared in no less than 16 games last year (before both were declared academically ineligible).
Ryan's clearly impressed by Landry, giving the true freshman 15 minutes per game last year. One note of warning regarding Landry, however. With five turnovers for every 100 possessions he played, Landry would appear to be the Badger most likely to give a gift to the opponent--more likely even than Taylor. And minimizing turnovers is critical for a team that (by chance) doesn't shoot very well and (by design) gets very few offensive boards.
Stiemsma requires only minutes on the floor to be recognized as an outstanding defensive rebounder--and if he's in the game at the same time as the equally proficient Krabbenhoft, Badger opponents should see very few offensive boards. (Ryan apparently has slotted Steimsma in the Zach Morley rebounding role: gobbling up defensive boards yet forbidden from even approaching the offensive glass. No other player in the Big Ten last year had as large a discrepancy between his defensive and offensive rebounding percentages as did Stiemsma. Back in the day, this was also Morley's shtick.)
Etc.
Kevin Gullikson walked on last year as a freshman, impressed the coach, and is now on scholarship.
Meet the freshmen and their advance billings: Trevon Hughes is the point guard and Jason Bohannon is the shooter.
BONUS Badger outreach to Illinois fans!
Illinois fans, it's fair to say, aren't particularly warm and fuzzy about Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl. Neither, it appears, is Bo Ryan:
Ryan said that several people called to tell him that Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl had a stretch limousine waiting to pick him up after he attended the recent funeral for former UWM and UW-La Crosse basketball player Luke Homan. Pearl coached Homan when they were both at Milwaukee.
"That's how he was picked up at the funeral. You wouldn't believe the number of people who said, 'How in the heck could he have the audacity to make it a spectacle about himself?' " Ryan said incredulously.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Wisconsin-Green Bay 79-62 last night in Madison. Alando Tucker led the Badgers in shots and points (18). Michael Flowers added five assists for Wisconsin, who held the Phoenix to 38.1 percent two-point shooting. "I thought our guys moved really well and had good shot selection," Bo Ryan said after the game. For his part Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates says "UW lacks proven shooting ability." There were 47 fouls called in this game--"The good thing about it is that you get a chance to rest, you get a little rest in between," said Kammron Taylor. Laudably glass-half-full young man Kammron Taylor, Wonk salutes you! (Box score (pdf).)
Illinois beat Jackson State 76-55 in Champaign last night. The Illini played this game without starters Rich McBride (serving a suspension for his September DUI arrest), Brian Randle (week to week with a strained groin), and Jamar Smith (out four to six weeks with a high ankle sprain). A "discombobulated" Illinois was down 18-4 early ("We were shocked," Bruce Weber said afterward) and turned the ball over 19 times in a 70-possession game but outscored the Tigers 42-21 in the second half for the win. Warren Carter led the Illini in shots, rebounds (15), and points (16). BONUS very sophisticated analysis! When you have two players (Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham) go the entire 40 minutes in a game this early, you have depth issues. Weber: "Warren had 37 minutes. I didn't know if he could play 25....Let's face it, we play these (early) games to grow up, to get experience, and some of our guys got a whole lot more experience than I ever dreamed of.....A couple of weeks ago, I was worried about getting them all playing time. They'd better be happy tonight." Illinois hosts Georgia Southern tomorrow night and Weber foresees similar minutes for his starters: "I don't know who else is going to go in." (Box score.)
Michigan beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 66-59 in Ann Arbor last night. After a "dismal" first half which ended with the Wolverines trailing by two, Michigan outscored the Panthers by nine in the second half for the win. Courtney Sims led the Wolverines with a 26-10 dub-dub: "I know I have to be one of the main people," he said afterward. Brent Petway added 11 boards for Michigan. The Panthers went 9-for-19 on their threes but only 9-for-34 on their twos. The Wolverines were the opposite: 24-of-46 on their twos and 1-of-9 on their threes. Michigan dominated their own offensive glass, pulling down 17 offensive boards out of 35 chances. (Box score.)
Michigan State plays Texas tonight in Madison Square Garden in the semifinals of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." "We're going to play a team that has maybe as much athleticism as any team we've played in a long, long time," says Tom Izzo. Raymar Morgan vs. Kevin Durant talk here.
Iowa has embarked on their five-game road trip that will begin with the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands and a game against Toledo tomorrow.
Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he likes the contrasting styles of his two point guards: 6-5 freshman Kevin Payton and 5-9 juco transfer Limar Wilson.
BONUS "What the hell happened?" coverage!
Oral Roberts beat Kansas 78-71 in Lawrence last night. A lot of things went wrong at once for the Jayhawks. They went just 11-of-21 at the line, posted an underwhelming 44.8 effective FG pct., and, just like in their first-round loss to Bradley last March, saw their opponent hit 11 threes. (ORU shot even better from outside than the Braves did, needing only 19 attempts to make 11.) Marchello Vealy, doing his best Marcellus Sommerville impression, made 7-of-8 threes and led Oral Roberts with 22 points. In the future the Jayhawks are going to want to do some Harding-on-Kerrigan style pregame sabotage of opposing players whose first names begin with the letters "Marc." (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:28 AM
Today I at long last conclude my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto low-turnover, low-eFG pct. group of young men in Madison, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
19-12 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost in first round of NCAA tournament to Arizona, 94-75. (Or did they? Maybe the Badgers really "advanced to the second round of the NCAA Tournament" and that whole Arizona game was just a Capricorn One-style moon landing hoax. Cool!)
Back
Alando Tucker (18.9 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 9.8 reb. pct., 3.1 assists per 100 possessions, 3.7 TOs per 100 possessions)
Kammron Taylor (14.2 PPG, 1.05 PPWS, 4.9 reb. pct., 4.1 a/100 poss., 4.6 TO/100 poss.)
Brian Butch (10.0 PPG, 1.12 PPWS, 14.1 reb. pct., 3.4 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Michael Flowers (5.9 PPG, 1.12 PPWS, 7.6 reb. pct., 4.8 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Jason Chappell (4.3 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 12.4 reb. pct., 5.5 a/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
Joe Krabbenhoft (3.4 PPG, 0.91 PPWS, 14.7 reb. pct., 5.2 a/100 poss., 4.2 TO/100 poss.)
Kevin Gullikson (3.2 PPG)
Tanner Bronson (3 min. per game)
New (kinda)
Marcus Landry (6-7 F, sat out last 14 games in 2006 due to academic ineligibility)
Greg Stiemsma (6-11 C, sat out last 14 games in 2006 due to academic ineligibility)
New
Trevon Hughes (6-1 G, Queens, NY)
Jason Bohannon (6-2 G, Marion, IA)
Mickey Perry (6-2 G, redshirt freshman)
J.P. Gavinski (6-11 C, Wisconsin Dells, WI)
Brett Valentyn (6-4 G, Verona, WI)
Gone
Ray Nixon (6.2 PPG, 1.11 PPWS, 4.2 reb. pct., 3.8 a/100 poss., 1.6 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Oh yeah? Well, Tanner Bronson could beat up Errek Suhr, pal."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
If such a thing is possible, I think Wisconsin is being simultaneously underrated and overrated this year.
Let's start with Adam Mertz of the Capital Times, for he is teachably optimistic:
With only Ray Nixon gone from last year's team...there are a wealth of options that all bring a little something different to the table, including Greg Stiemsma and Marcus Landry, who by all accounts have brought a new level of energy since returning from academic hiatus. Notably, several of these options appear capable of putting the ball in the hoop consistently on any given night.
Aye, there's the question: putting the ball in the hoop consistently. If the Badgers do that this year the lid is off the can as far as how high this team can go. They already defend. They already take care of the ball. In fact, give me a Wisconsin team that can shoot and I'll give you a team that's on the same level as North Carolina and, yes, Florida. Why not? Those teams both turn the ball over (Carolina particularly). Wisconsin doesn't. So in that sense I think the Badgers are underrated.
But I also think Wisconsin's being overrated in that it's so widely assumed that age alone will equate to improvement and, specifically, good shooting. It didn't work out that way last year for Iowa, to say the least. The Hawkeyes last year returned even more of their minutes and points from the previous season than do the Badgers this year. And Iowa's effective FG pct. "improved" all the way from 49.4 to 49.1--both figures, by the way, are a hair better than the 48.4 eFG pct. Wisconsin posted last year.
You can say, of course, that this Badger team will in fact be much deeper than last year's and so this Iowa-Wisconsin comparison's off-target. Maybe, but my point is in any case more general: shooting is everything and it is fickle. I don't know if Wisconsin will shoot well this year but then Bo Ryan doesn't know either. No one does.
So shooting's a question mark. But I think pretty much everything else on both sides of the ball is likely to adhere to a pretty well-established--and successful--Ryan script. And so I boldly predict: little or no change in offensive rebounding (mediocre by design) and continued excellence in holding on to the ball (a Madison specialty).
Another part of the Ryan script is his willingness to play at the pace that works best in that particular game. The Badgers still suffer from a misconception that they go slow; on the contrary, they actually play at a surprisingly fast pace. Here's a snippet from the industry-standard Blue Ribbon Yearbook:
Ryan said it wasn't a matter of changing the team's style, but rather taking advantage of opportunities. "Sometimes it's just about the number of possessions you have, or whether you're playing with the lead or playing from behind," he said.
"We've never held the ball. We've always tried to get the easiest basket you can get, and if it comes in transition, we'll go get it. But sometimes the way the tempo dictates the game, your number of possessions is higher. With me, it's always about the number of points per possession. We scored one point per possession last year pretty steady, and we were happy with that."
On defense the Badgers were good last year and can be even better this year. In particular, I think Wisconsin can do better on the defensive boards.
The Badgers' numbers on the defensive glass last year weren't bad, mind you. But for a team that was far and away the tallest in the league, doing just a little better than the conference average is puzzling. Especially in light of the fact that Wisconsin's FG defense last year was superb--even better than that of the much-lauded Iowa defense. Meaning if the Badgers had been merely as good as the more diminutive likes of Illinois or Michigan State on the defensive glass, they would have had the best defense in the Big Ten by a healthy margin--indeed, one of the best defenses in the nation. Just a few defensive boards away....
Vintage Ryan
"You're not always going to have your score on the left-hand side. Nobody does that. But we'll match the competitiveness year in and year out of anybody around. The fact that people have bought into that and made this the toughest ticket around, you think we're not proud of that? The players are proud of that. The people who have coached here are, too. That's a pretty good situation."
Every coach talks like that, sure. But when Ryan says it, it actually sounds accurate--it reflects what I see of the Badgers on the court.
The POY in November....Will he be POY in March?
This past Sunday the Indianapolis Star said that Alando Tucker has "offensive skills few can match." I was struck by that passage because it so succinctly captures the precise opposite of my read on Tucker.
Talent? Loaded with it: speed, quickness, and hops. Heart? Beyond question or debate. I especially admire his relentless tenacity and his unfailingly selfless demeanor on a team where, at least last season, he wasn't always getting a ton of offensive help from his teammates. Skills?...
Put it like this: If I'm choosing Big Ten players to be on my team, I take Tucker with my second pick (right after some guy whose name escapes me). But if you ask me why, my answer isn't going to cite any measurable skills. I won't say it's because of his shooting, or his ball handling, or his rebounding, or his passing, or his defense.
I'll say it's because he's Alando Tucker. He'll give me everything he has, lead my team, and make it better. He is the Mateen Cleaves of this generation of Big Ten players.
(ESPN.com likes Tucker, too.)
Baffling statistical anomaly Kammron Taylor, Wonk salutes you!
Kammron Taylor's a good three-point shooter (39.9 percent in '06) and his proficiency from the free throw line (82.9 percent last year) suggests his accurate perimeter shooting is no fluke and is indeed likely to continue. All well and good--but here's the odd part: in 2006 Taylor was an Edvard Munch-level horrific two-point shooter. Hitting an abysmal 37.2 percent of his two-pointers, Taylor ranked 71st out of the 72 Big Ten players who averaged at least 15 minutes per game. (Only the injury-wracked A.J. Ratliff of Indiana struggled more from inside the arc last season. Note also: Taylor last year actually shot better on his threes than on his twos.)
It gets curiouser, for it wasn't just Taylor who struggled from inside the arc in Madison last year. Here's a list of the Big Ten's 15 worst returning two-point shooters....
Worst 2FG percentages, 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. A.J. Ratliff, IN (32.5)
2. Kammron Taylor, WI (37.2)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (37.7)
4. Tony Freeman, IA (38.8)
5. Travis Walton, MSU (40.0)
6. Rich McBride, IL (40.8)
7. Sterling Williams, NU (41.1)
8. Drew Neitzel, MSU (41.3)
9. Chris Lutz, PUR (42.0)
10. Ben Luber, PSU (42.3)
11. Dion Harris, MI (42.3)
12. Dan Coleman, MN (42.7)
13. Jamar Smith, IL (43.2)
14. Jason Chappell, WI (43.3)
15. Michael Flowers, WI (43.7)
(So does the swing offense do a disservice to Taylor by "inverting" him into the interior instead of just letting him float outside the arc? Just asking!)
Taylor appeared to fade badly down the stretch last year and has come back this season notably beefed up and pledging to stay strong.
Stats, schmats
No player in the Big Ten is done a greater disservice by numbers than is Brian Butch when it comes to rebounding. His seemingly mediocre six boards a game last season masks two crucial facts: he only played 60 percent of the available minutes and in the Badger scheme he is instructed to worry less about offensive boards and more about getting back on D. In fact, I rate Butch (19.3 defensive rebound pct.) the third best returning defensive rebounder in the Big Ten coming into this year, behind only Courtney Sims (20.1) and this guy....
Speaking of defensive boards
Joe Krabbenhoft is a monster on the defensive glass (20.0 defensive rebound pct. last year) and records a goodly number of assists--surprising for a monster! As noted above he had a disastrous year shooting the ball but then he was a freshman. And the best thing about freshmen came true for Krabbenhoft this year: he's a sophomore.
My streak of consecutive posts without a pun on Michael Flowers' name continues!
Michael Flowers has reportedly been working on his offensive repertoire but I think he was better to start with than is commonly realized. In effect, Flowers consumes minutes and emits rock-steady Wisconsin-style performance. Along with Butch, he was the most efficient scorer on the team last year and he takes very good care of the ball.
Look fast
Jason Chappell last season was an excellent example of that occasional phenomenon known as the ceremonial starter. He started 30 games last year but averaged five fewer minutes a game than non-starter Flowers. He is very much of that Krabbenhoftian species in that he too has a weirdly high number of assists for one so vertically distinguished.
Landry and Stiemsma return--how big a difference will they make?
We might think we've hardly seen either Marcus Landry or Greg Stiemsma but in actuality both of them appeared in no less than 16 games last year (before both were declared academically ineligible).
Ryan's clearly impressed by Landry, giving the true freshman 15 minutes per game last year. One note of warning regarding Landry, however. With five turnovers for every 100 possessions he played, Landry would appear to be the Badger most likely to give a gift to the opponent--more likely even than Taylor. And minimizing turnovers is critical for a team that (by chance) doesn't shoot very well and (by design) gets very few offensive boards.
Stiemsma requires only minutes on the floor to be recognized as an outstanding defensive rebounder--and if he's in the game at the same time as the equally proficient Krabbenhoft, Badger opponents should see very few offensive boards. (Ryan apparently has slotted Steimsma in the Zach Morley rebounding role: gobbling up defensive boards yet forbidden from even approaching the offensive glass. No other player in the Big Ten last year had as large a discrepancy between his defensive and offensive rebounding percentages as did Stiemsma. Back in the day, this was also Morley's shtick.)
Etc.
Kevin Gullikson walked on last year as a freshman, impressed the coach, and is now on scholarship.
Meet the freshmen and their advance billings: Trevon Hughes is the point guard and Jason Bohannon is the shooter.
BONUS Badger outreach to Illinois fans!
Illinois fans, it's fair to say, aren't particularly warm and fuzzy about Tennessee head coach Bruce Pearl. Neither, it appears, is Bo Ryan:
Ryan said that several people called to tell him that Tennessee coach Bruce Pearl had a stretch limousine waiting to pick him up after he attended the recent funeral for former UWM and UW-La Crosse basketball player Luke Homan. Pearl coached Homan when they were both at Milwaukee.
"That's how he was picked up at the funeral. You wouldn't believe the number of people who said, 'How in the heck could he have the audacity to make it a spectacle about himself?' " Ryan said incredulously.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Wisconsin-Green Bay 79-62 last night in Madison. Alando Tucker led the Badgers in shots and points (18). Michael Flowers added five assists for Wisconsin, who held the Phoenix to 38.1 percent two-point shooting. "I thought our guys moved really well and had good shot selection," Bo Ryan said after the game. For his part Wisconsin State Journal columnist Tom Oates says "UW lacks proven shooting ability." There were 47 fouls called in this game--"The good thing about it is that you get a chance to rest, you get a little rest in between," said Kammron Taylor. Laudably glass-half-full young man Kammron Taylor, Wonk salutes you! (Box score (pdf).)
Illinois beat Jackson State 76-55 in Champaign last night. The Illini played this game without starters Rich McBride (serving a suspension for his September DUI arrest), Brian Randle (week to week with a strained groin), and Jamar Smith (out four to six weeks with a high ankle sprain). A "discombobulated" Illinois was down 18-4 early ("We were shocked," Bruce Weber said afterward) and turned the ball over 19 times in a 70-possession game but outscored the Tigers 42-21 in the second half for the win. Warren Carter led the Illini in shots, rebounds (15), and points (16). BONUS very sophisticated analysis! When you have two players (Chester Frazier and Trent Meacham) go the entire 40 minutes in a game this early, you have depth issues. Weber: "Warren had 37 minutes. I didn't know if he could play 25....Let's face it, we play these (early) games to grow up, to get experience, and some of our guys got a whole lot more experience than I ever dreamed of.....A couple of weeks ago, I was worried about getting them all playing time. They'd better be happy tonight." Illinois hosts Georgia Southern tomorrow night and Weber foresees similar minutes for his starters: "I don't know who else is going to go in." (Box score.)
Michigan beat Wisconsin-Milwaukee 66-59 in Ann Arbor last night. After a "dismal" first half which ended with the Wolverines trailing by two, Michigan outscored the Panthers by nine in the second half for the win. Courtney Sims led the Wolverines with a 26-10 dub-dub: "I know I have to be one of the main people," he said afterward. Brent Petway added 11 boards for Michigan. The Panthers went 9-for-19 on their threes but only 9-for-34 on their twos. The Wolverines were the opposite: 24-of-46 on their twos and 1-of-9 on their threes. Michigan dominated their own offensive glass, pulling down 17 offensive boards out of 35 chances. (Box score.)
Michigan State plays Texas tonight in Madison Square Garden in the semifinals of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." "We're going to play a team that has maybe as much athleticism as any team we've played in a long, long time," says Tom Izzo. Raymar Morgan vs. Kevin Durant talk here.
Iowa has embarked on their five-game road trip that will begin with the Paradise Jam in the Virgin Islands and a game against Toledo tomorrow.
Minnesota coach Dan Monson says he likes the contrasting styles of his two point guards: 6-5 freshman Kevin Payton and 5-9 juco transfer Limar Wilson.
BONUS "What the hell happened?" coverage!
Oral Roberts beat Kansas 78-71 in Lawrence last night. A lot of things went wrong at once for the Jayhawks. They went just 11-of-21 at the line, posted an underwhelming 44.8 effective FG pct., and, just like in their first-round loss to Bradley last March, saw their opponent hit 11 threes. (ORU shot even better from outside than the Braves did, needing only 19 attempts to make 11.) Marchello Vealy, doing his best Marcellus Sommerville impression, made 7-of-8 threes and led Oral Roberts with 22 points. In the future the Jayhawks are going to want to do some Harding-on-Kerrigan style pregame sabotage of opposing players whose first names begin with the letters "Marc." (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:28 AM
Wednesday, November 15, 2006
New faces and fresh legs at Purdue
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto notably unlucky band of oft-injured and -suspended souls in West Lafayette, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
9-19 overall, 3-13 in conference.
Back
Chris Lutz (9.2 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 4.6 reb. pct., 3.3 assists per 100 possessions, 4.9 TOs per 100 possessions)
Marcus Green (5.5 PPG, 1.03 PPWS, 8.3 reb. pct., 2.7 a/100 poss., 5.7 TO/100 poss.)
Bobby Riddell (2.2 PPG)
Chris Hartley (1.8 PPG)
New
Carl Landry (6-7 F, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 18.2 PPG in 2005)
David Teague (6-5 G, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 14.0 PPG in 2005)
Tarrance Crump (6-1 G, missed 2006 season due to suspension for an off-court incident)
Gordon Watt (6-6 F, transfer from Boston College)
Chris Kramer (6-3 G, Huntington, IN)
Keaton Grant (6-4 G, Kissimmee, FL)
Johnathan Uchendu (6-11 F, Pulaski, AR)
Dan Vandervieren (6-10 F, Eden Prairie, MN)
Gone
Matt Kiefer (12.0 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 16.2 reb. pct., 3.6 a/100 poss., 4.0 TO/100 poss.)
Nate Minnoy (10.2 PPG)
Marcus White (10.1 PPG)
Gary Ware (7.3 PPG)
Bryant Dillon (6.9 PPG)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Any use of the term 'knee injury' this season is prohibited."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Purdue played its first regular season game Monday night and not one Boilermaker on the floor for the opening tip started even a single Big Ten game last season.
So what do we think we know in November? We don't know anything. But, to quote the immortal Lloyd Dobler, we know that we don't know....
Who are those guys?
The mystery begins with head coach Matt Painter. He's been on the sidelines at Purdue in one capacity or another for two years now and we still don't know what we'll see from his team this year.
Painter served one year as a coach-in-waiting during Gene Keady's farewell season in 2004-05. And then his nominal first year at the helm last season was washed out by a disastrous series of injuries and suspensions that removed Purdue's entire projected starting five from action before conference play began. An unrepentant Pharaoh could not have suffered more plagues upon his house than did Painter last year. (At one point last season I'm fairly certain I saw a cloud of locusts in Mackey Arena.)
But the Successories poster at the mall says adversity breeds inner strength and indeed the coach appears to have a sense of humor about his travails. When Purdue administrators gave Painter the equivalent of an act-of-God exemption, conferring upon the coach a one-year contract extension, he said, "I’ve got to be the only coach in America to go 9-19 and get an extension. I tell people if we win 11 this year, I’m going for two more years."
Looking to this year Painter says: "As long as we make improvement and stop turning the ball over, we should be fine." He's right--this is indeed the task at hand for the new guys. Last year Purdue's shooting and offensive rebounding were both average, even amidst the plague of locusts, but they coughed up the ball on very nearly one in every four possessions, the worst figure in the league.
On defense, this year's new-look Boilermakers appear to be numerous on the perimeter and thin in the post. My assumption until further notice: very few threes shot by opposing teams, who will instead be busy attacking the rim and trying to draw fouls on and/or wear out a certain big man down low....
DiMaggio in '41, Peyton Manning in '04, and Landry in '05--OK, maybe not that good. Still....
Carl Landry sat out last season recovering from a knee injury suffered in February 2005. He scored 18 points a game for Purdue that season but that's just the beginning of the story. After all, Bracey Wright scored 18 points a game for Indiana that year, too, and no one particularly reveres the Hoosier's performance that season.
But Landry achieved something special that year: outstanding scoring efficiency (1.30 PPWS) and sheer volume (18 a game) on a team with no other offensive threats. When Landry shot the ball that year it went in, despite the inconvenient little fact that opposing defenses paid no attention whatsoever to any other Purdue player. (For one thing, the Boilermakers hit less than 32 percent of their threes in-conference that year.) Other players have scored with equal efficiency--but they are often the second, third, or fourth offensive options on teams with multiple threats.
Or look at it another way: Wisconsin last year was no scoring juggernaut, to be sure, but primary scoring threat Alando Tucker still had a level of support on offense that primary scoring threat Landry did not have in 2005. And yet Tucker's scoring efficiency last year was pretty much the exact (horrific) opposite of Landry's. (Don't get me wrong: I (heart) Tucker--tune in tomorrow for more. Still, it illustrates just how striking Landry's year really was.)
As a fan of the game, my wish this season is for a non-Landry Boilermaker to emerge as a viable scoring threat. I would love to see what Landry can do with such support.
And as for non-scoring matters, the big guy (ha--wait until you see him next to Greg Oden) would appear to be good but not great on the boards and let's not talk about the rest. Assists, holding on to the ball, defense--that's for teammates, right?...
Intrigued by Teague
(At the risk of sounding repetitive....) David Teague sat out last season with a knee injury. I keep hearing that he's going to provide Painter with defense and perimeter shooting this year. I don't doubt the former but I do have to wonder about the latter. Teague was solid but not spectacular shooting threes his first two years in West Lafayette before recording a notably more underwhelming 31.5 3FG pct. in 2005. Moreover he's a career 71 percent free throw shooter--not the profile of a preternaturally gifted outside shooter. An over/under of 36 percent this season would seem about right. On the plus side, Teague is a tenacious defender and on offense he holds on to the ball with admirable possessive zeal.
Say Watt?
Boston College transfer Gordon Watt is either 6-6 or 6-7 depending on where you link. He started Purdue's first game and recorded 10 points and nine boards in just 19 minutes.
Get to the point
Tarrance Crump sat out last season after leaving the scene of an accident in which the car he was driving struck a pedestrian. He is billed as the "true" point guard but got off to a slow start in his first game the other night, recording just four points and zero assists in 20 minutes.
Rewriting the depth chart
Chris Kramer may qualify as the surprise of the season so far. The true freshman from Huntington, Indiana, has landed in the starting lineup and been praised by Painter for his ability to defend on the perimeter.
"Yay, new guys! I think...."
Chris Lutz says he's glad he'll have some help in the backcourt this year. (He has so much help he's lost his spot as a starter.)
Baffling statistical anomaly Marcus Green, Wonk salutes you!
In 2006, Marcus Green was an 87 percent free throw shooter and a 22 percent three-point shooter. Repeat: in 2006 Marcus Green was an 87 percent free throw shooter and a 22 percent three-point shooter. True, that FT percentage is based on just 31 attempts. Still, write this one in stone: Green's three-point shooting will improve dramatically this year. (There's an alternative?)
Etc.
Keaton Grant gives Painter still another dose of athleticism and size (6-4, 200) on the perimeter.
Johnathan Uchendu's parents are notably iconoclastic spellers. Also he reportedly needs to gain weight. Dan Vandervieren's parents, conversely, eschewed the temptation to go with something more like "Daan" or "Daine." Also he reportedly needs to lose weight.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Butler beat Indiana 60-55 in a hideous whistle-filled foul-fest as part of the Preseason NIT at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis last night. Add in the fact that neither team shot well and you have a prodigiously homely contest on your hands, even in HD. The Hoosiers appeared to have this game under control, leading by 12 in the second half, but the Bulldogs closed with a 25-8 run and got the W. Scary part is: Indiana could have been much worse off in this game. Butler was overwhelmed on their defensive glass and hit just 7 of their 24 threes. (True, IU's perimeter shooting was even more futile: 3-of-14.) D.J. White led the Hoosiers in shots and points (22)....Kelvin Sampson said his team needs to play better from ahead: "After we had the 12-point lead, we had six possessions where we either turned it over or fouled them. We just didn't play smart." (Box score.)
EXCLUSIVE pro bono advice to all college basketball players! The refs are indeed out to make a point this November. So use it to your advantage! Most notably: all flops, particularly in the first ten minutes or so, will be called as charges. I mean, you can feel the refs inhaling to blow their whistles during those rare aberrant moments when the ball is in play and the clock is running. That "charge" that Errek Suhr took in front of the Indiana bench was teachably laughable. Suhr's feet still haven't stopped moving, yet in bizarro November he was "set" in the refs' eyes. Players, fling yourselves bodily at whoever has the ball. It will be a charge, rest assured.
Northwestern beat DePaul 49-39 last night in Evanston. In a game that pitted two of the slowest teams in "power"-conference basketball in 2006, fans in Welsh-Ryan Arena were exposed to potentially lethal levels of dullness in a 50-possession still-life. And horrified parents are reported to have shielded their children's eyes as both teams combined for 26 missed threes. Craig Moore "led" the Wildcats with 10 points: "Once I get one down, I can get going," Moore said without apparent irony. Tim Doyle recorded six assists, which, in a 50-possession game, is saying something. Bill Carmody said it was good to get the win after losing at home to Cornell: "''We were very disappointed the other night."...Congratulations to Wildcat freshman Kevin Coble, winner of last night's Waldo Fisher-Frank McGrath Award! (No, I'd never heard of it either. Were they a Tin Pan Alley songwriting team?)...Bad tea leaves for a POT: Northwestern has made just 26.8 percent of its threes in its first two games. (Box score.)
Michigan plays Wisconsin-Milwaukee tonight in Ann Arbor. Tommy Amaker says he wants his team to "scratch, claw and defend."
Illinois plays Jackson State in Champaign tonight. The Illini learned yesterday that they will be without Jamar Smith for four to six weeks. Smith suffered a high ankle sprain in Monday's win over Austin Peay. Also hurting: Brian Randle, listed as "week to week" now and nursing a strained groin. (Being from Peoria is bad luck!) Add in the fact that Rich McBride is suspended until next week as punishment for his September DUI arrest and Bruce Weber is faced with the prospect of playing the next three games without three of his starters. Tonight's likely starting five: Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Calvin Brock, Warren Carter, and Shaun Pruitt. ("We may have to play Chris Hicks," Weber says. Hicks is a walk-on. "We have to survive until Tuesday," when McBride returns.)...Jackson State guard Trey Johnson has taken 58 shots in his first two games this season and is averaging 34.5 points a game.
Wisconsin plays Wisconsin-Green Bay tonight in Madison. Alando Tucker says his shooting will come around. Tucker missed all five of his threes in Sunday's win over Mercer....Profile of Badger sophomore Joe Krabbenhoft here. Profile of Badger freshman Jason Bohannon here....Wisconsin graces the regionally-tailored cover of Sports Illustrated in the Midwest this week.
I hear the word "December" used more and more often in connection with the return of Ohio State catalyst of punctuated equilibrium Greg Oden.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says he's enjoying flying under the radar with a young team for a change. (He has a choice?) "When you're constantly picked to win it, I'm not sure it's as much fun for anybody," he says. "Just a once in a while dose of this is not bad. I don't want a steady diet of it. I hope this happens once every eight or nine years and that's all. But I'm going to try to enjoy having to make sure that every piece of the puzzle is in place."
Quick! Someone send Izzo a link to Big Ten Wonk! Izzo says he wants his team to be as good on the boards as in the "glory days" circa 2000. Yearning for rebounding as good as the old days assumes, of course, that the Spartans haven't been as good on the glass in recent years. In fact, the 2005 Michigan State team was better on the defensive glass in conference play (78.4 defensive reb. pct.) than the 2000 national championship team (76.3). But the 2000 team was the vastly superior defense, allowing just 0.89 points per possession. (As opposed to 0.95 in 2005. Also note: today's article quoting Izzo uses rebounding margin numbers to determine who's good at rebounding. Yes, the 2000 team had a phenomenal rebounding margin--in large part because they played such outstanding defense and forced so many misses. Then again, rebounding margin is also dependent on how many misses your team contributes--and most teams would rather make shots than get offensive boards. Lastly, rebounding margin is dependent on pace. In short, it's a mess and should never be used.)
That 2005 team endured varying levels of grief their entire careers in East Lansing and, in a way, they still do. I just don't get it.
No word yet on any references to PPWS....
Far and away the most interesting thing you'll read today: documents belonging to James Naismith recently found in a basement in Chesterfield, Missouri, shed new light on the origins of basketball.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Penn State is growing as a team--um, literally
Yesterday I offered the following remarkably astute analysis: Penn State is short and that's bad for a basketball team. (You just can't get this level of insight anywhere else.)
The readers respond!
John,
I appreciated your view of Penn State today. I think we may turn out to be as big a surprise this year as we were last year. We took a unique approach to the size problem. We had Brandon Hassell grow two inches to 6-11 and Joonas Suotamo grew an inch to 6-10.
Hassell played fairly good defense against UNC-Greensboro and PSU was able to stay in man for most of the game.
Gary D.
Thanks, Gary. I think you nailed it: minutes spent playing man-to-man will indicate defensive confidence on the part of Ed DeChellis, confidence hitherto in short supply.
¶ 6:23 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto notably unlucky band of oft-injured and -suspended souls in West Lafayette, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
9-19 overall, 3-13 in conference.
Back
Chris Lutz (9.2 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 4.6 reb. pct., 3.3 assists per 100 possessions, 4.9 TOs per 100 possessions)
Marcus Green (5.5 PPG, 1.03 PPWS, 8.3 reb. pct., 2.7 a/100 poss., 5.7 TO/100 poss.)
Bobby Riddell (2.2 PPG)
Chris Hartley (1.8 PPG)
New
Carl Landry (6-7 F, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 18.2 PPG in 2005)
David Teague (6-5 G, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 14.0 PPG in 2005)
Tarrance Crump (6-1 G, missed 2006 season due to suspension for an off-court incident)
Gordon Watt (6-6 F, transfer from Boston College)
Chris Kramer (6-3 G, Huntington, IN)
Keaton Grant (6-4 G, Kissimmee, FL)
Johnathan Uchendu (6-11 F, Pulaski, AR)
Dan Vandervieren (6-10 F, Eden Prairie, MN)
Gone
Matt Kiefer (12.0 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 16.2 reb. pct., 3.6 a/100 poss., 4.0 TO/100 poss.)
Nate Minnoy (10.2 PPG)
Marcus White (10.1 PPG)
Gary Ware (7.3 PPG)
Bryant Dillon (6.9 PPG)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Any use of the term 'knee injury' this season is prohibited."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Purdue played its first regular season game Monday night and not one Boilermaker on the floor for the opening tip started even a single Big Ten game last season.
So what do we think we know in November? We don't know anything. But, to quote the immortal Lloyd Dobler, we know that we don't know....
Who are those guys?
The mystery begins with head coach Matt Painter. He's been on the sidelines at Purdue in one capacity or another for two years now and we still don't know what we'll see from his team this year.
Painter served one year as a coach-in-waiting during Gene Keady's farewell season in 2004-05. And then his nominal first year at the helm last season was washed out by a disastrous series of injuries and suspensions that removed Purdue's entire projected starting five from action before conference play began. An unrepentant Pharaoh could not have suffered more plagues upon his house than did Painter last year. (At one point last season I'm fairly certain I saw a cloud of locusts in Mackey Arena.)
But the Successories poster at the mall says adversity breeds inner strength and indeed the coach appears to have a sense of humor about his travails. When Purdue administrators gave Painter the equivalent of an act-of-God exemption, conferring upon the coach a one-year contract extension, he said, "I’ve got to be the only coach in America to go 9-19 and get an extension. I tell people if we win 11 this year, I’m going for two more years."
Looking to this year Painter says: "As long as we make improvement and stop turning the ball over, we should be fine." He's right--this is indeed the task at hand for the new guys. Last year Purdue's shooting and offensive rebounding were both average, even amidst the plague of locusts, but they coughed up the ball on very nearly one in every four possessions, the worst figure in the league.
On defense, this year's new-look Boilermakers appear to be numerous on the perimeter and thin in the post. My assumption until further notice: very few threes shot by opposing teams, who will instead be busy attacking the rim and trying to draw fouls on and/or wear out a certain big man down low....
DiMaggio in '41, Peyton Manning in '04, and Landry in '05--OK, maybe not that good. Still....
Carl Landry sat out last season recovering from a knee injury suffered in February 2005. He scored 18 points a game for Purdue that season but that's just the beginning of the story. After all, Bracey Wright scored 18 points a game for Indiana that year, too, and no one particularly reveres the Hoosier's performance that season.
But Landry achieved something special that year: outstanding scoring efficiency (1.30 PPWS) and sheer volume (18 a game) on a team with no other offensive threats. When Landry shot the ball that year it went in, despite the inconvenient little fact that opposing defenses paid no attention whatsoever to any other Purdue player. (For one thing, the Boilermakers hit less than 32 percent of their threes in-conference that year.) Other players have scored with equal efficiency--but they are often the second, third, or fourth offensive options on teams with multiple threats.
Or look at it another way: Wisconsin last year was no scoring juggernaut, to be sure, but primary scoring threat Alando Tucker still had a level of support on offense that primary scoring threat Landry did not have in 2005. And yet Tucker's scoring efficiency last year was pretty much the exact (horrific) opposite of Landry's. (Don't get me wrong: I (heart) Tucker--tune in tomorrow for more. Still, it illustrates just how striking Landry's year really was.)
As a fan of the game, my wish this season is for a non-Landry Boilermaker to emerge as a viable scoring threat. I would love to see what Landry can do with such support.
And as for non-scoring matters, the big guy (ha--wait until you see him next to Greg Oden) would appear to be good but not great on the boards and let's not talk about the rest. Assists, holding on to the ball, defense--that's for teammates, right?...
Intrigued by Teague
(At the risk of sounding repetitive....) David Teague sat out last season with a knee injury. I keep hearing that he's going to provide Painter with defense and perimeter shooting this year. I don't doubt the former but I do have to wonder about the latter. Teague was solid but not spectacular shooting threes his first two years in West Lafayette before recording a notably more underwhelming 31.5 3FG pct. in 2005. Moreover he's a career 71 percent free throw shooter--not the profile of a preternaturally gifted outside shooter. An over/under of 36 percent this season would seem about right. On the plus side, Teague is a tenacious defender and on offense he holds on to the ball with admirable possessive zeal.
Say Watt?
Boston College transfer Gordon Watt is either 6-6 or 6-7 depending on where you link. He started Purdue's first game and recorded 10 points and nine boards in just 19 minutes.
Get to the point
Tarrance Crump sat out last season after leaving the scene of an accident in which the car he was driving struck a pedestrian. He is billed as the "true" point guard but got off to a slow start in his first game the other night, recording just four points and zero assists in 20 minutes.
Rewriting the depth chart
Chris Kramer may qualify as the surprise of the season so far. The true freshman from Huntington, Indiana, has landed in the starting lineup and been praised by Painter for his ability to defend on the perimeter.
"Yay, new guys! I think...."
Chris Lutz says he's glad he'll have some help in the backcourt this year. (He has so much help he's lost his spot as a starter.)
Baffling statistical anomaly Marcus Green, Wonk salutes you!
In 2006, Marcus Green was an 87 percent free throw shooter and a 22 percent three-point shooter. Repeat: in 2006 Marcus Green was an 87 percent free throw shooter and a 22 percent three-point shooter. True, that FT percentage is based on just 31 attempts. Still, write this one in stone: Green's three-point shooting will improve dramatically this year. (There's an alternative?)
Etc.
Keaton Grant gives Painter still another dose of athleticism and size (6-4, 200) on the perimeter.
Johnathan Uchendu's parents are notably iconoclastic spellers. Also he reportedly needs to gain weight. Dan Vandervieren's parents, conversely, eschewed the temptation to go with something more like "Daan" or "Daine." Also he reportedly needs to lose weight.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Butler beat Indiana 60-55 in a hideous whistle-filled foul-fest as part of the Preseason NIT at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis last night. Add in the fact that neither team shot well and you have a prodigiously homely contest on your hands, even in HD. The Hoosiers appeared to have this game under control, leading by 12 in the second half, but the Bulldogs closed with a 25-8 run and got the W. Scary part is: Indiana could have been much worse off in this game. Butler was overwhelmed on their defensive glass and hit just 7 of their 24 threes. (True, IU's perimeter shooting was even more futile: 3-of-14.) D.J. White led the Hoosiers in shots and points (22)....Kelvin Sampson said his team needs to play better from ahead: "After we had the 12-point lead, we had six possessions where we either turned it over or fouled them. We just didn't play smart." (Box score.)
EXCLUSIVE pro bono advice to all college basketball players! The refs are indeed out to make a point this November. So use it to your advantage! Most notably: all flops, particularly in the first ten minutes or so, will be called as charges. I mean, you can feel the refs inhaling to blow their whistles during those rare aberrant moments when the ball is in play and the clock is running. That "charge" that Errek Suhr took in front of the Indiana bench was teachably laughable. Suhr's feet still haven't stopped moving, yet in bizarro November he was "set" in the refs' eyes. Players, fling yourselves bodily at whoever has the ball. It will be a charge, rest assured.
Northwestern beat DePaul 49-39 last night in Evanston. In a game that pitted two of the slowest teams in "power"-conference basketball in 2006, fans in Welsh-Ryan Arena were exposed to potentially lethal levels of dullness in a 50-possession still-life. And horrified parents are reported to have shielded their children's eyes as both teams combined for 26 missed threes. Craig Moore "led" the Wildcats with 10 points: "Once I get one down, I can get going," Moore said without apparent irony. Tim Doyle recorded six assists, which, in a 50-possession game, is saying something. Bill Carmody said it was good to get the win after losing at home to Cornell: "''We were very disappointed the other night."...Congratulations to Wildcat freshman Kevin Coble, winner of last night's Waldo Fisher-Frank McGrath Award! (No, I'd never heard of it either. Were they a Tin Pan Alley songwriting team?)...Bad tea leaves for a POT: Northwestern has made just 26.8 percent of its threes in its first two games. (Box score.)
Michigan plays Wisconsin-Milwaukee tonight in Ann Arbor. Tommy Amaker says he wants his team to "scratch, claw and defend."
Illinois plays Jackson State in Champaign tonight. The Illini learned yesterday that they will be without Jamar Smith for four to six weeks. Smith suffered a high ankle sprain in Monday's win over Austin Peay. Also hurting: Brian Randle, listed as "week to week" now and nursing a strained groin. (Being from Peoria is bad luck!) Add in the fact that Rich McBride is suspended until next week as punishment for his September DUI arrest and Bruce Weber is faced with the prospect of playing the next three games without three of his starters. Tonight's likely starting five: Chester Frazier, Trent Meacham, Calvin Brock, Warren Carter, and Shaun Pruitt. ("We may have to play Chris Hicks," Weber says. Hicks is a walk-on. "We have to survive until Tuesday," when McBride returns.)...Jackson State guard Trey Johnson has taken 58 shots in his first two games this season and is averaging 34.5 points a game.
Wisconsin plays Wisconsin-Green Bay tonight in Madison. Alando Tucker says his shooting will come around. Tucker missed all five of his threes in Sunday's win over Mercer....Profile of Badger sophomore Joe Krabbenhoft here. Profile of Badger freshman Jason Bohannon here....Wisconsin graces the regionally-tailored cover of Sports Illustrated in the Midwest this week.
I hear the word "December" used more and more often in connection with the return of Ohio State catalyst of punctuated equilibrium Greg Oden.
Michigan State coach Tom Izzo says he's enjoying flying under the radar with a young team for a change. (He has a choice?) "When you're constantly picked to win it, I'm not sure it's as much fun for anybody," he says. "Just a once in a while dose of this is not bad. I don't want a steady diet of it. I hope this happens once every eight or nine years and that's all. But I'm going to try to enjoy having to make sure that every piece of the puzzle is in place."
Quick! Someone send Izzo a link to Big Ten Wonk! Izzo says he wants his team to be as good on the boards as in the "glory days" circa 2000. Yearning for rebounding as good as the old days assumes, of course, that the Spartans haven't been as good on the glass in recent years. In fact, the 2005 Michigan State team was better on the defensive glass in conference play (78.4 defensive reb. pct.) than the 2000 national championship team (76.3). But the 2000 team was the vastly superior defense, allowing just 0.89 points per possession. (As opposed to 0.95 in 2005. Also note: today's article quoting Izzo uses rebounding margin numbers to determine who's good at rebounding. Yes, the 2000 team had a phenomenal rebounding margin--in large part because they played such outstanding defense and forced so many misses. Then again, rebounding margin is also dependent on how many misses your team contributes--and most teams would rather make shots than get offensive boards. Lastly, rebounding margin is dependent on pace. In short, it's a mess and should never be used.)
That 2005 team endured varying levels of grief their entire careers in East Lansing and, in a way, they still do. I just don't get it.
No word yet on any references to PPWS....
Far and away the most interesting thing you'll read today: documents belonging to James Naismith recently found in a basement in Chesterfield, Missouri, shed new light on the origins of basketball.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Penn State is growing as a team--um, literally
Yesterday I offered the following remarkably astute analysis: Penn State is short and that's bad for a basketball team. (You just can't get this level of insight anywhere else.)
The readers respond!
John,
I appreciated your view of Penn State today. I think we may turn out to be as big a surprise this year as we were last year. We took a unique approach to the size problem. We had Brandon Hassell grow two inches to 6-11 and Joonas Suotamo grew an inch to 6-10.
Hassell played fairly good defense against UNC-Greensboro and PSU was able to stay in man for most of the game.
Gary D.
Thanks, Gary. I think you nailed it: minutes spent playing man-to-man will indicate defensive confidence on the part of Ed DeChellis, confidence hitherto in short supply.
¶ 6:23 AM
Tuesday, November 14, 2006
Penn State, Ed DeChellis, and a question of medical ethics
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the feisty winning-in-Champaign young men from Happy Valley, proud members of the Big Ten since 1990....
Last year
15-15 overall, 6-10 in conference. Lost in first round of NIT to Rutgers, 76-71.
Back
Geary Claxton (15.2 PPG, 1.00 PPWS, 13.1 reb. pct., 2.7 assists per 100 possessions, 3.8 TOs per 100 possessions)
Jamelle Cornley (11.4 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 11.2 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss., 3.3 TO/100 poss.)
Ben Luber (7.5 PPG, 1.10 PPWS, 3.2 reb. pct., 8.9 a/100 poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Mike Walker (6.7 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 4.7 reb. pct., 8.6 a/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
David "Mooch" Jackson (6.7 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 6.6 reb pct., 6.1 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Milos Bogetic (3.7 PPG)
Brandon Hassell (1.7 PPG)
New
Danny Morrissey (6-3 G, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 7.7 PPG in 2005)
Maxwell DuBois (6-3 G, redshirt freshman)
Andrew Jones (6-8 F, Philadelphia)
David "D.J." Jackson (6-6 F, Farrell, PA)
Gone
Travis Parker (12.2 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 11.4 reb. pct., 3.7 a/100 poss., 4.3 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"No longer risible! Really!"
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Regular readers of this blog know I dig old movies and that from time to time I'll drag the oldies into discussions on, of all things, Big Ten basketball. And so it was that my thoughts turned cinematic when I read this write-up of the chatter offered up for consumption at Penn State's media day.
Here's junior guard Mike Walker:
"I believe it's realistic [winning the Big Ten]," said Walker. "I think the Big Ten's gonna be down a little bit this year, I think we're gonna be up a little bit. We kind of got fortunate in that aspect. If we just go out and take care of business, I think we can do it."
And sophomore guard Danny Morrissey says he and his teammates "really think" they can win the Big Ten.
Maybe the Nittany Lions have tempered their expectations slightly in the wake of Geary Claxton's injury--a broken bone in his hand that's expected to keep him out of action for the next few weeks. Still, this kind of media-day talk reminded me of weepies from the 30s and 40s where the main character has a fatal disease but the doctor, to give the patient "peace of mind," has lied and told them all is well.
I know Ed DeChellis knows the truth. I only wonder if he's told his players.
For the truth is harsh:
1. Penn State had one of the worst defenses of any major-conference team in the country last year.
2. The Nittany Lions' problem is fundamental in nature (they're short), extreme in severity (see below), and has been on uninterrupted and debilitating display for 60-plus games.
3. Coming into this season, there appear to have been no dispositive infusions of new (preferably large) personnel.
Things can change, sure. But knowing what we know today, it takes severe DAD to talk about Big Ten titles in Happy Valley just yet.
The problem is simple. Penn State is short and opponents just shoot over these guys....
Worst major-conference interior defenses--opponent 2FG pct. (2006, conference games only)
1. Penn State (57.6)
2. Tennessee (55.1)
3. Missouri (54.3)
4. Georgia (54.1)
5. Iowa State (53.8)
DeChellis does everything he can to stop this bleeding by playing zone and practically begging opponents to shoot threes instead:
Percentage of major-conference opponent FGAs devoted to 3FGAs (2006, conference games only)
1. Penn State (50.2)
2. Marquette (40.1)
3. Northwestern (40.0)
4. Miami (37.2)
5. South Carolina (37.1)
For the record, DeChellis says his team played zone last year because his players "were not really containing the ball. We were giving up drives to the basket." (More: "We must become a much better defensive team, and it all starts with [the] perimeter. If we can't contain the ball on the perimeter, that puts a lot of pressure on our front-line guys.") I think his team played zone last year because his players were so dang short. But whatever the motivation of a given defensive set may be, Penn State must improve its FG defense this year.
OK, now let's see the glass as half-full, shall we?
That being said, Penn State made tremendous progress on offense last year. The strength of that offense is PSU's offensive rebounding. Not unlike Bo Ryan's swing offense, Penn State can at times be seen running sets designed to pull opposing bigs away from the hoop. Unlike the Badgers, however, the Nittany Lions choose to pursue the resulting opportunities on the offensive glass. This will henceforth be known 'round here as the Penn State Schwing Offense.
Even more important, if less readily apparent, Penn State was able to hold on to the ball last year, something they were utterly unable to do in 2005.
BONUS salute to boring necessities mastered by Penn State! Limiting turnovers is both invisible to and mandatory for good offense. No one ever points and says, "Wow! Great non-turnover!" But (insert Levon Helm voice here) there would appear to be a demon in the sky out there at about 23 percent of possessions--turn the ball over that many times or more and the consequences are not pretty. (That being said, limiting turnovers shouldn't be confused with fretting about eliminating them entirely. The national champion each of the past two years has coughed the ball up more frequently than your garden-variety conference leader in this category.)
Funny, that's exactly what the AP movie critic said about Gigli
From an AP story on Penn State, regarding last year's defense: "It worked at times."
Yes, I suppose it worked before each opening tip, during halftimes, and in the intervals between each final buzzer and the next opening tip. Oh, and since March.
Exquisitely tactful anonymous phraseologist of the Associated Press, Wonk salutes you!
First-team all-Big Ten....
Geary Claxton was named to the preseason All-Big Ten first team by the media--then promptly went out and broke a bone in his hand in Penn State's first exhibition game. The 6-5 junior takes more shots by far than any other Nittany Lion--and it doesn't take a good deal of imagination to see DeChellis's stated wish that Claxton learn "to make other guys around him better" as coach-speak for: stop shooting so damn much.
Nevertheless, Claxton is indisputably a beast on the offensive boards (and that's highly unusual for a player who channels so much of his team's offense). Indefatigable monster of the offensive glass Geary Claxton, Wonk salutes you!
BONUS Claxton clarification! This wire story says Claxton is "the leading returning rebounder in the conference." Not even close to correct, of course. Here's the truth as far as rebounding and returning players are concerned:
Rebound pct., 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. Shaun Pruitt, IL (16.0)
2. Courtney Sims, MI (15.9)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (14.7)
4. Brian Butch, WI (14.1)
5. Geary Claxton, PSU (13.1)
Rebound pct. represents the percentage of available boards hauled in by a given player while he's in the game. In this case, Claxton rebounded about 13 percent of all missed shots--by opponents and by his own team--during his time on the floor last year. His number for rebounds per game is higher than any of the players named above simply because he was on the floor for 85 percent of the possible minutes. By contrast, his nearest competitor in minutes from the above list, Brian Butch, played just 60 percent of his team's minutes. For two years now this blog has been adding its small mite to the efforts of other civic-minded hoops types to once and for all put this utterly worthless "rebounds per game" stat beyond the pale of respectability--it would be logically equivalent to a patently useless "hits per game" stat in baseball. One of these days, by Godfrey, we shall succeed.
Is there a Sophomore of the Year award? ("SOY"?)
Like Claxton, Jamelle Cornley is an undersized hard worker in the paint. He doesn't rebound as well as Claxton but last year's Big Ten Freshman of the Year scores more efficiently. (Although this characterization of Cornley's rebounding is going to need serious revision if the young man maintains anything close to the 23.4 rebound percentage he's posted in the first two games this year.)
Fewer TOs and more points
Ben Luber represented, all by himself, much of the progress made by Penn State on offense last year versus 2005. Most notably Luber's turnovers declined significantly while his scoring efficiency improved dramatically. The skeptic in me says a 65.5 percent free throw shooter (2006) can't hit 44.8 percent of his threes two years in a row. Then again Luber was an 89.6 percent FT shooter (!) in 2005. Which means an impostor shot the free throws one of those years--jinkies! Is there a Velma in State College? Walk up to "Luber" and yank off his rubber mask!
Still another prolific assist-maker
Mike Walker turns the ball over even less than Luber and his (tempo-free) assist numbers are almost as good. However, Walker struggled with his perimeter shot last year.
No, it's a greater honor for me
David "Mooch" Jackson used to be known simply as David Jackson--until the Nittany Lions brought in a freshman this year named David Jackson. (As we speak, PSU assistants are out on the recruiting trail and going hard after '08 prospects Geary Claxton, Jamelle Cornley, and (this was the tough one) Joonas Suotamo.) For the record: the senior is Mooch and the freshman is D.J. Got it? As for Mooch, he started all 30 games for Penn State last year. DeChellis has praised Jackson's defense (that's rare) and voiced a desire for more offense.
Trudging slowly over wet sand....
Sophomore guard Danny Morrissey, newly returned from a year lost to a knee injury, shot 35.8 percent on his threes in the notably challenging 2005 season.
Etc.
With the departure of Travis Parker, there are minutes available down low alongside Claxton and Cornley and the contenders for the PT are Brandon Hassell, Milos Bogetic, Joonas Suotamo, and Andrew Jones. For more on all of the above, read the briskly efficient candidates guide authored by indefatigable Nittany Lion savant Jeff Rice.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Minnesota beat North Dakota State 63-49 last night in Minneapolis, a game that was 6-5 (no, not a typo) at the under-8 timeout in the first half. Oklahoma transfer Lawrence McKenzie led the Gophers in minutes, shots, rebounds (10) and points (20). Dan Monson said losing an exhibition game to Division II Winona State helped prepare his team: "I really believe this in my heart that if we wouldn't have gotten embarrassed like we were on Wednesday, we probably wouldn't have won this game." Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse says Minnesota's "intriguing athletes" gave the Bison no open looks. (Box score (pdf).)
Indiana beat Lafayette 91-66 in a hideous whistle-filled foul-fest as part of first-round action at the Preseason NIT at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis last night. D.J. White enacted a moving tribute to James Augustine's performance in the 2005 national championship game and played just eight foul-blighted minutes. (His fourth foul was whistled when he blinked too loudly on the bench.) BONUS very sophisticated analysis from alert reader Nate D.! If White can play "more than ten minutes, this team could be pretty good." Indeed! Indiana led by just three with less than eight minutes remaining but put the game away with a 12-0 run. Roderick Wilmont led the Hoosiers in shots and points (24). Earl Calloway added 22 while leading IU in minutes and assists (nine). Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rick Bozich says "considerable work will be required to upgrade [Kelvin Sampson's] first Indiana basketball team." File under "Hoosier fans smiled nervously": Wilmont attempted 11 threes. It worked out last night but, believe me, opponents will take that. (Box score.)
Penn State beat UNC-Greensboro 69-56 last night in State College. The Spartans actually outshot the Nittany Lions in this game but offensive boards (14 vs. 7) and trips to the line (24 vs. 6) did the trick for the home team. Jamelle Cornley led PSU in shots, rebounds (11), and points (23). Ben Luber went 3-for-5 on his threes; the rest of the team went 1-for-13. Could Brandon Hassell be the answer to Penn State's chronic need for height? Indefatigable Nittany Lion savant Jeff Rice says yes, if last night's any indication: "The 6-foot-11 junior forward recorded a career-high 28 minutes and a career-high nine points. He added five rebounds and four of Penn State's eight steals in what was easily the best performance by a Lion of his height in at least three years." (Box score (pdf).)
Illinois beat Austin Peay 80-35 in Champaign last night. Jamar Smith led the Illini in shots and points (19) but left the game early in the second half with a sprained ankle. ("Most likely it's a sprained [left] ankle, probably a little higher sprain than we'd like," said Bruce Weber afterward. "I would anticipate he'll be out a little bit—a week, two weeks, whatever.") Add to that the fact that Brian Randle played just nine minutes before suffering a "tweak" to his strained groin and you have noteworthy injury concerns for Weber's team....Chester Frazier recorded eight assists but turned the ball over six times; Weber: "Some of it is that Chester is going too fast." Governors coach Dave Loos praised Illinois for playing "overwhelming" and even "psychologically damaging" defense. "I hope we don't see that kind of pressure in our league that we saw tonight. We'll have a problem if we do." (Box score.)
Purdue beat Northern Colorado 90-58 last night in West Lafayette. The Bears turned the ball over 33 times in a 77-possession game, giving the visitors an unheard of turnover percentage of 42.7. BONUS very sophisticated analysis! If you turn the ball over on 42.7 percent of your possessions, you're going to get stomped....Carl Landry led the Boilers with 18 points, as six Purdue players hit double-figures. After sitting out two exhibition games due to an undisclosed violation of team policy, 6-7 Boston College transfer Gordon Watt got the start, as Matt Painter decided not to go with the four-guard lineup he'd used in the preseason. David Teague said it was good to have Watt on the floor: "He is a motivator and defender. We missed him in the first two games." After sitting out last season with a knee injury, Teague says his knee still bothers him from time to time. (Box score.)
Iowa beat The Citadel 75-53 in Iowa City last night. Adam Haluska led the Hawkeyes in minutes, shots, and points (29). But what about this Kurt Looby character? The young man blocks shots like Erek Hansen (three last night) and hits the boards (14) like Greg Brunner--yikes! Tony Freeman recorded 11 assists and Cyrus Tate added 13 points in 18 minutes. ("I felt good," Tate said afterward.) Steve Alford said he was happy with his young team's offense: "We moved the ball maybe as well as I've had a team move the ball here." (Box score.)
BONUS all-about-me note!
This blog's total number of hits over its brief career attained a big round number yesterday afternoon at 3:06 Eastern. Anonymous but laudably Big Ten-focused employee of a biotech firm in Albany, NY, Wonk salutes you! Give me an email with proof of IP address and maybe we can get you a cool bumper sticker like this one:
(No, not Dad. DAD.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Tempo-free pre-backlash backlash
Yesterday I applauded ESPN for their plan to roll out Ken Pomeroy-assembled tempo-free stats on selected telecasts this season.
The readers respond!
From your 11/13 post:
"Something as simple as points per possession--for and against, spread far and wide by ESPN and its ilk--can put such bad old days quickly behind us. Seven months ago I voiced a desire for 'baby steps' along these very lines. The first such, it appears, are about to be taken."
Cue the backlash in three...two...one...okay. It might not happen quite so quickly, but I suspect that we'll see a bit of what we've seen out of the mainstream baseball media in the face of the sabrmetric revolution: abject horror at the prospect of having to do basic math and accept that what used to pass for expertise was, lo and behold, bunk all along. Mix in two parts malicious bashing of those who follow the new, improved path (in baseball, those who consider Billy Beane a "failure" for doing nothing more than getting to the playoffs with a second-tier payroll year in, year out), and you have the damnation of the revolution in...well, I guess I've only laid out one simple step, but there you go.
Hope it doesn't play out that way, but I'll take November 21 in the first negative comment towards tempo-free stats on ESPN pool.
Excellent work, by the way; thanks, and keep it up.
David K.
San Rafael, CA
Thanks, David. I too hope it doesn't play out that way, for reasons I've already offered:
Tempo-free stats are a fad, if by "fad" you mean something that's being perceived as "new" (though, in this case, the perception is incorrect) and is being adopted at an ever-accelerating rate. I would hazard a guess that batting average started as a "fad."
But I think the most common misconception related to this particular fad is a belief that these stats must surely represent something irreducibly complex and esoteric. I think the truth is pretty much the exact opposite. The value of tempo-free stats is precisely that, like a batting average, they enable us to perform the most mundane and least esoteric of descriptive housekeeping, to wit: "That team has a good defense." "This player is a better rebounder than that player." "That team turns the ball over a lot."
This type of mundane statement comes in really handy. It'd be nice if the announcers on the game we're watching on a given night could be trusted to make this type of statement dependably.... ¶ 6:00 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the feisty winning-in-Champaign young men from Happy Valley, proud members of the Big Ten since 1990....
Last year
15-15 overall, 6-10 in conference. Lost in first round of NIT to Rutgers, 76-71.
Back
Geary Claxton (15.2 PPG, 1.00 PPWS, 13.1 reb. pct., 2.7 assists per 100 possessions, 3.8 TOs per 100 possessions)
Jamelle Cornley (11.4 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 11.2 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss., 3.3 TO/100 poss.)
Ben Luber (7.5 PPG, 1.10 PPWS, 3.2 reb. pct., 8.9 a/100 poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Mike Walker (6.7 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 4.7 reb. pct., 8.6 a/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
David "Mooch" Jackson (6.7 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 6.6 reb pct., 6.1 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Milos Bogetic (3.7 PPG)
Brandon Hassell (1.7 PPG)
New
Danny Morrissey (6-3 G, sat out 2006 with knee injury, 7.7 PPG in 2005)
Maxwell DuBois (6-3 G, redshirt freshman)
Andrew Jones (6-8 F, Philadelphia)
David "D.J." Jackson (6-6 F, Farrell, PA)
Gone
Travis Parker (12.2 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 11.4 reb. pct., 3.7 a/100 poss., 4.3 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"No longer risible! Really!"
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Regular readers of this blog know I dig old movies and that from time to time I'll drag the oldies into discussions on, of all things, Big Ten basketball. And so it was that my thoughts turned cinematic when I read this write-up of the chatter offered up for consumption at Penn State's media day.
Here's junior guard Mike Walker:
"I believe it's realistic [winning the Big Ten]," said Walker. "I think the Big Ten's gonna be down a little bit this year, I think we're gonna be up a little bit. We kind of got fortunate in that aspect. If we just go out and take care of business, I think we can do it."
And sophomore guard Danny Morrissey says he and his teammates "really think" they can win the Big Ten.
Maybe the Nittany Lions have tempered their expectations slightly in the wake of Geary Claxton's injury--a broken bone in his hand that's expected to keep him out of action for the next few weeks. Still, this kind of media-day talk reminded me of weepies from the 30s and 40s where the main character has a fatal disease but the doctor, to give the patient "peace of mind," has lied and told them all is well.
I know Ed DeChellis knows the truth. I only wonder if he's told his players.
For the truth is harsh:
1. Penn State had one of the worst defenses of any major-conference team in the country last year.
2. The Nittany Lions' problem is fundamental in nature (they're short), extreme in severity (see below), and has been on uninterrupted and debilitating display for 60-plus games.
3. Coming into this season, there appear to have been no dispositive infusions of new (preferably large) personnel.
Things can change, sure. But knowing what we know today, it takes severe DAD to talk about Big Ten titles in Happy Valley just yet.
The problem is simple. Penn State is short and opponents just shoot over these guys....
Worst major-conference interior defenses--opponent 2FG pct. (2006, conference games only)
1. Penn State (57.6)
2. Tennessee (55.1)
3. Missouri (54.3)
4. Georgia (54.1)
5. Iowa State (53.8)
DeChellis does everything he can to stop this bleeding by playing zone and practically begging opponents to shoot threes instead:
Percentage of major-conference opponent FGAs devoted to 3FGAs (2006, conference games only)
1. Penn State (50.2)
2. Marquette (40.1)
3. Northwestern (40.0)
4. Miami (37.2)
5. South Carolina (37.1)
For the record, DeChellis says his team played zone last year because his players "were not really containing the ball. We were giving up drives to the basket." (More: "We must become a much better defensive team, and it all starts with [the] perimeter. If we can't contain the ball on the perimeter, that puts a lot of pressure on our front-line guys.") I think his team played zone last year because his players were so dang short. But whatever the motivation of a given defensive set may be, Penn State must improve its FG defense this year.
OK, now let's see the glass as half-full, shall we?
That being said, Penn State made tremendous progress on offense last year. The strength of that offense is PSU's offensive rebounding. Not unlike Bo Ryan's swing offense, Penn State can at times be seen running sets designed to pull opposing bigs away from the hoop. Unlike the Badgers, however, the Nittany Lions choose to pursue the resulting opportunities on the offensive glass. This will henceforth be known 'round here as the Penn State Schwing Offense.
Even more important, if less readily apparent, Penn State was able to hold on to the ball last year, something they were utterly unable to do in 2005.
BONUS salute to boring necessities mastered by Penn State! Limiting turnovers is both invisible to and mandatory for good offense. No one ever points and says, "Wow! Great non-turnover!" But (insert Levon Helm voice here) there would appear to be a demon in the sky out there at about 23 percent of possessions--turn the ball over that many times or more and the consequences are not pretty. (That being said, limiting turnovers shouldn't be confused with fretting about eliminating them entirely. The national champion each of the past two years has coughed the ball up more frequently than your garden-variety conference leader in this category.)
Funny, that's exactly what the AP movie critic said about Gigli
From an AP story on Penn State, regarding last year's defense: "It worked at times."
Yes, I suppose it worked before each opening tip, during halftimes, and in the intervals between each final buzzer and the next opening tip. Oh, and since March.
Exquisitely tactful anonymous phraseologist of the Associated Press, Wonk salutes you!
First-team all-Big Ten....
Geary Claxton was named to the preseason All-Big Ten first team by the media--then promptly went out and broke a bone in his hand in Penn State's first exhibition game. The 6-5 junior takes more shots by far than any other Nittany Lion--and it doesn't take a good deal of imagination to see DeChellis's stated wish that Claxton learn "to make other guys around him better" as coach-speak for: stop shooting so damn much.
Nevertheless, Claxton is indisputably a beast on the offensive boards (and that's highly unusual for a player who channels so much of his team's offense). Indefatigable monster of the offensive glass Geary Claxton, Wonk salutes you!
BONUS Claxton clarification! This wire story says Claxton is "the leading returning rebounder in the conference." Not even close to correct, of course. Here's the truth as far as rebounding and returning players are concerned:
Rebound pct., 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. Shaun Pruitt, IL (16.0)
2. Courtney Sims, MI (15.9)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (14.7)
4. Brian Butch, WI (14.1)
5. Geary Claxton, PSU (13.1)
Rebound pct. represents the percentage of available boards hauled in by a given player while he's in the game. In this case, Claxton rebounded about 13 percent of all missed shots--by opponents and by his own team--during his time on the floor last year. His number for rebounds per game is higher than any of the players named above simply because he was on the floor for 85 percent of the possible minutes. By contrast, his nearest competitor in minutes from the above list, Brian Butch, played just 60 percent of his team's minutes. For two years now this blog has been adding its small mite to the efforts of other civic-minded hoops types to once and for all put this utterly worthless "rebounds per game" stat beyond the pale of respectability--it would be logically equivalent to a patently useless "hits per game" stat in baseball. One of these days, by Godfrey, we shall succeed.
Is there a Sophomore of the Year award? ("SOY"?)
Like Claxton, Jamelle Cornley is an undersized hard worker in the paint. He doesn't rebound as well as Claxton but last year's Big Ten Freshman of the Year scores more efficiently. (Although this characterization of Cornley's rebounding is going to need serious revision if the young man maintains anything close to the 23.4 rebound percentage he's posted in the first two games this year.)
Fewer TOs and more points
Ben Luber represented, all by himself, much of the progress made by Penn State on offense last year versus 2005. Most notably Luber's turnovers declined significantly while his scoring efficiency improved dramatically. The skeptic in me says a 65.5 percent free throw shooter (2006) can't hit 44.8 percent of his threes two years in a row. Then again Luber was an 89.6 percent FT shooter (!) in 2005. Which means an impostor shot the free throws one of those years--jinkies! Is there a Velma in State College? Walk up to "Luber" and yank off his rubber mask!
Still another prolific assist-maker
Mike Walker turns the ball over even less than Luber and his (tempo-free) assist numbers are almost as good. However, Walker struggled with his perimeter shot last year.
No, it's a greater honor for me
David "Mooch" Jackson used to be known simply as David Jackson--until the Nittany Lions brought in a freshman this year named David Jackson. (As we speak, PSU assistants are out on the recruiting trail and going hard after '08 prospects Geary Claxton, Jamelle Cornley, and (this was the tough one) Joonas Suotamo.) For the record: the senior is Mooch and the freshman is D.J. Got it? As for Mooch, he started all 30 games for Penn State last year. DeChellis has praised Jackson's defense (that's rare) and voiced a desire for more offense.
Trudging slowly over wet sand....
Sophomore guard Danny Morrissey, newly returned from a year lost to a knee injury, shot 35.8 percent on his threes in the notably challenging 2005 season.
Etc.
With the departure of Travis Parker, there are minutes available down low alongside Claxton and Cornley and the contenders for the PT are Brandon Hassell, Milos Bogetic, Joonas Suotamo, and Andrew Jones. For more on all of the above, read the briskly efficient candidates guide authored by indefatigable Nittany Lion savant Jeff Rice.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Minnesota beat North Dakota State 63-49 last night in Minneapolis, a game that was 6-5 (no, not a typo) at the under-8 timeout in the first half. Oklahoma transfer Lawrence McKenzie led the Gophers in minutes, shots, rebounds (10) and points (20). Dan Monson said losing an exhibition game to Division II Winona State helped prepare his team: "I really believe this in my heart that if we wouldn't have gotten embarrassed like we were on Wednesday, we probably wouldn't have won this game." Minneapolis Star Tribune columnist Patrick Reusse says Minnesota's "intriguing athletes" gave the Bison no open looks. (Box score (pdf).)
Indiana beat Lafayette 91-66 in a hideous whistle-filled foul-fest as part of first-round action at the Preseason NIT at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis last night. D.J. White enacted a moving tribute to James Augustine's performance in the 2005 national championship game and played just eight foul-blighted minutes. (His fourth foul was whistled when he blinked too loudly on the bench.) BONUS very sophisticated analysis from alert reader Nate D.! If White can play "more than ten minutes, this team could be pretty good." Indeed! Indiana led by just three with less than eight minutes remaining but put the game away with a 12-0 run. Roderick Wilmont led the Hoosiers in shots and points (24). Earl Calloway added 22 while leading IU in minutes and assists (nine). Louisville Courier-Journal columnist Rick Bozich says "considerable work will be required to upgrade [Kelvin Sampson's] first Indiana basketball team." File under "Hoosier fans smiled nervously": Wilmont attempted 11 threes. It worked out last night but, believe me, opponents will take that. (Box score.)
Penn State beat UNC-Greensboro 69-56 last night in State College. The Spartans actually outshot the Nittany Lions in this game but offensive boards (14 vs. 7) and trips to the line (24 vs. 6) did the trick for the home team. Jamelle Cornley led PSU in shots, rebounds (11), and points (23). Ben Luber went 3-for-5 on his threes; the rest of the team went 1-for-13. Could Brandon Hassell be the answer to Penn State's chronic need for height? Indefatigable Nittany Lion savant Jeff Rice says yes, if last night's any indication: "The 6-foot-11 junior forward recorded a career-high 28 minutes and a career-high nine points. He added five rebounds and four of Penn State's eight steals in what was easily the best performance by a Lion of his height in at least three years." (Box score (pdf).)
Illinois beat Austin Peay 80-35 in Champaign last night. Jamar Smith led the Illini in shots and points (19) but left the game early in the second half with a sprained ankle. ("Most likely it's a sprained [left] ankle, probably a little higher sprain than we'd like," said Bruce Weber afterward. "I would anticipate he'll be out a little bit—a week, two weeks, whatever.") Add to that the fact that Brian Randle played just nine minutes before suffering a "tweak" to his strained groin and you have noteworthy injury concerns for Weber's team....Chester Frazier recorded eight assists but turned the ball over six times; Weber: "Some of it is that Chester is going too fast." Governors coach Dave Loos praised Illinois for playing "overwhelming" and even "psychologically damaging" defense. "I hope we don't see that kind of pressure in our league that we saw tonight. We'll have a problem if we do." (Box score.)
Purdue beat Northern Colorado 90-58 last night in West Lafayette. The Bears turned the ball over 33 times in a 77-possession game, giving the visitors an unheard of turnover percentage of 42.7. BONUS very sophisticated analysis! If you turn the ball over on 42.7 percent of your possessions, you're going to get stomped....Carl Landry led the Boilers with 18 points, as six Purdue players hit double-figures. After sitting out two exhibition games due to an undisclosed violation of team policy, 6-7 Boston College transfer Gordon Watt got the start, as Matt Painter decided not to go with the four-guard lineup he'd used in the preseason. David Teague said it was good to have Watt on the floor: "He is a motivator and defender. We missed him in the first two games." After sitting out last season with a knee injury, Teague says his knee still bothers him from time to time. (Box score.)
Iowa beat The Citadel 75-53 in Iowa City last night. Adam Haluska led the Hawkeyes in minutes, shots, and points (29). But what about this Kurt Looby character? The young man blocks shots like Erek Hansen (three last night) and hits the boards (14) like Greg Brunner--yikes! Tony Freeman recorded 11 assists and Cyrus Tate added 13 points in 18 minutes. ("I felt good," Tate said afterward.) Steve Alford said he was happy with his young team's offense: "We moved the ball maybe as well as I've had a team move the ball here." (Box score.)
BONUS all-about-me note!
This blog's total number of hits over its brief career attained a big round number yesterday afternoon at 3:06 Eastern. Anonymous but laudably Big Ten-focused employee of a biotech firm in Albany, NY, Wonk salutes you! Give me an email with proof of IP address and maybe we can get you a cool bumper sticker like this one:
(No, not Dad. DAD.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Tempo-free pre-backlash backlash
Yesterday I applauded ESPN for their plan to roll out Ken Pomeroy-assembled tempo-free stats on selected telecasts this season.
The readers respond!
From your 11/13 post:
"Something as simple as points per possession--for and against, spread far and wide by ESPN and its ilk--can put such bad old days quickly behind us. Seven months ago I voiced a desire for 'baby steps' along these very lines. The first such, it appears, are about to be taken."
Cue the backlash in three...two...one...okay. It might not happen quite so quickly, but I suspect that we'll see a bit of what we've seen out of the mainstream baseball media in the face of the sabrmetric revolution: abject horror at the prospect of having to do basic math and accept that what used to pass for expertise was, lo and behold, bunk all along. Mix in two parts malicious bashing of those who follow the new, improved path (in baseball, those who consider Billy Beane a "failure" for doing nothing more than getting to the playoffs with a second-tier payroll year in, year out), and you have the damnation of the revolution in...well, I guess I've only laid out one simple step, but there you go.
Hope it doesn't play out that way, but I'll take November 21 in the first negative comment towards tempo-free stats on ESPN pool.
Excellent work, by the way; thanks, and keep it up.
David K.
San Rafael, CA
Thanks, David. I too hope it doesn't play out that way, for reasons I've already offered:
Tempo-free stats are a fad, if by "fad" you mean something that's being perceived as "new" (though, in this case, the perception is incorrect) and is being adopted at an ever-accelerating rate. I would hazard a guess that batting average started as a "fad."
But I think the most common misconception related to this particular fad is a belief that these stats must surely represent something irreducibly complex and esoteric. I think the truth is pretty much the exact opposite. The value of tempo-free stats is precisely that, like a batting average, they enable us to perform the most mundane and least esoteric of descriptive housekeeping, to wit: "That team has a good defense." "This player is a better rebounder than that player." "That team turns the ball over a lot."
This type of mundane statement comes in really handy. It'd be nice if the announcers on the game we're watching on a given night could be trusted to make this type of statement dependably.... ¶ 6:00 AM
Monday, November 13, 2006
Evolution as revolution at Ohio State
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto perimeter-oriented young men from Columbus, OH, proud members of the Big Ten since 1912....
Last year
26-6 overall, 12-4 in conference. Lost in second round of NCAA tournament to Georgetown, 70-52.
Back
Ron Lewis (11.2 PPG, 1.18 PPWS, 7.5 reb. pct., 3.4 assists per 100 possessions, 4.6 TOs per 100 possessions)
Jamar Butler (10.1 PPG, 1.20 PPWS, 5.8 reb. pct., 8.5 a/100 poss., 3.4 TO/100 poss.)
Ivan Harris (3.6 PPG)
Matt Terwilliger (2.3 PPG)
New
Greg Oden (7-1 C, Indianapolis)
Daequan Cook (6-5 G, Dayton, OH)
Mike Conley, Jr. (6-1 G, Indianapolis)
David Lighty (6-5 G, Cleveland)
Othello Hunter (6-9 F, Winston-Salem, NC)
Gone
Terence Dials (15.3 PPG, 1.16 PPWS, 15.6 reb. pct., 1.2 a/100 poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
Je'Kel Foster (12.2 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 7.6 reb. pct., 5.6 a/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
J.J. Sullinger (10.1 PPG, 1.20 PPWS, 14.3 reb. pct., 3.1 a/100 poss., 3.0 TO/100 poss.)
Matt Sylvester (7.4 PPG, 0.97 PPWS, 6.5 reb. pct., 6.9 a/100 poss., 3.8 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Lobbying earnestly to revise the NBA's minimum draft age to 22."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Right now--mid-November--is the moment in the college hoops calendar when the overrating of individual talent at the expense of team performance is at its most egregious. And yet we do it every year, over and over: the preseason favorites look invincible. Their McDonald's All-American players are profiled ad nauseum. The favorites are unbeatable, on another level.
March is the opposite, of course. Win-or-go-home games played on neutral courts have a way of reminding us that this putative "different level" is much more a labor-saving device for our own individual attention spans than a true reflection of external reality.
And so in that spirit I want to say that I just don't believe Greg Oden's going to be as good as everyone's saying he's going to be.
I think he's going to be better. Much better.
Punctuated equilibrium and college hoops
Just eight short months ago, I wrote the following about a Big Ten player:
Over the past decade as the NBA has increasingly and now completely cornered the market on carbon-based life forms who are 6-10 or taller and can walk and chew gum at the same time, we have seen more of [this player's] ilk. He is a "dominant" big man (especially on offense) though in fact he is but 6-9. (Back in the day he would have been a solid power forward.)
I was talking about Terence Dials, conveniently enough. Oden, playing the same position for the same team as Dials, represents the sudden and abrupt reversal of this dynamic. Future hoops paleontologists, poring over box scores like so many fossilized remains, will wonder at the quantum leap captured by this little bit of deduction:
--Terence Dials was Big Ten Player of the Year in 2006.
--Greg Oden is four inches taller than Dials, equally strong, more athletic, and as quick if not quicker.
--Conclusion: Eep.
And that's speaking only of offense. There will be no DAD in this look at Oden--let's do the same for defense....
--In each of the past two seasons, the best defense in the Big Ten has been led by a dominant defensive presence in the post.
--Those two exceptional defenders were Jeff Hagen of Minnesota and Erek Hansen of Iowa.
--Greg Oden is not Jeff Hagen or Erek Hansen. He's Greg Oden.
--Conclusion: Eep.
And now for the really scary part, as least as far as ten other Big Ten teams are concerned. Thad Matta's Ohio State teams already, pre-Oden, play outstanding perimeter defense--and that was with no shot-blocking in the post backing them up. (Matta says on his team "all five guys are going to guard the ball." All coaches talk like that. Matta's teams--with recruits he inherited--have for the most part played like it.) If the overlap between new arrivals buying into the Matta system and Oden's post-injury but pre-draft time is at all considerable, we may just see the best defense we've seen in the Big Ten since Michigan State in 2000.
In point of fact the NBA's predilection for skimming off the cream of the high school crop in any given year was not an unalloyed negative where college hoops is concerned. For every LeBron James we didn't get to see play in college, there were three or four Kwame Browns we, thankfully, didn't have to see. Still, the almost total disappearance of the dominant big man (over the past 15 years it can be said of college rosters that height has existed in imperfect but trusty inverse relation to athleticism) has wrought a slow change on the game.
But slow change can at times be overturned by something much more sudden. And, if the performance lives up to the promise in this instance, you'd need Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge to explain something as abrupt and seismic as the arrival of Greg Oden.
Meet this blog's POY from last season
I chose Jamar Butler as my POY last year because of his across-the-board excellence:
Far and away the easiest question for me to answer as part of this little exercise was: who's the best point guard in the league? Dee Brown, Daniel Horton, and Drew Neitzel all have their strong points. But Butler, at least this year, had no weak points. He was stellar across the board: shooting 44 percent on his threes, dishing more than eight assists every 100 possessions (and even that number is slightly deflated by the Buckeyes' Illinois-in-2005-like ability to spread assists around), never turning the ball over, and playing consistently tough D. None of the others named above can say as much.
More love for Butler here.
Foul me before I drive again
Ron Lewis gets to the line better than any other player in the Big Ten and is a pretty good (not great) FT shooter once he gets there (78.1 percent). His shot selection last season was at times questionable (more than half his shots were attempted threes, yet he only made 33.9 percent of them) but this didn't matter much when he was the fourth option on the best offense in the Big Ten. It may not matter much this year either.
So does that mean Tony Stockman was "The In-Door Icemaker"?
Butler calls Ivan Harris "the microwave" in honor of the senior's ability to come off the bench and hit threes.
Depth in the post?
Matt Terwilliger takes prodigiously good care of the ball--even for one who never gets touches--but his rebounding and scoring are less noteworthy.
And the new breed....
Daequan Cook obviously has a green light from Matta. Here it is, November 13 of the young man's freshman season, and he's already launched 36 shots from the field in three games.
As early as it is, Mike Conley, Jr., already gives indications of being one of those freshmen that doesn't play like a freshman. See: 25 assists in three games.
David Lighty had some off-court offseason hijinks.
Othello Hunter is a juco transfer praised by Matta for his drive and athleticism.
"No acts of 'charity,' OK, coach?"
Matta has a new contract. Hope the OSU lawyers learned their lesson.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Games! Actual games!
The weekend in Big Ten hoops: Friday!
Cornell beat Northwestern 64-61 in Evanston. While it's true just 15 of the Big Red's 43 shots were attempted from inside the arc, the visitors made no fewer than 11 of those 15 two-point shots. Ballgame. Give the Wildcats this much: they had balanced scoring, including 11 points from newly eligible Rice transfer Jason Okrzesik and 10 from true freshman and starter Kevin Coble. Tim Doyle recorded eight assists in 39+ minutes. (Box score.)
Ohio State beat VMI 107-69 in opening-round action in the BCA Classic in Columbus. Don't be fooled by the 107 points. In fact, the Buckeye offense was exactly as efficient--no more, no less--as in Big Ten play last year. (Which, by the way, was pretty dang efficient.) It's just that this was by far the fastest game played by a Big Ten team the past two seasons: 96 possessions. Mike Conley, Jr., recorded 10 assists in 26 minutes. Daequan Cook went just 2-of-7 outside the arc but 7-of-7 inside it to lead OSU with 22 points. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Central Connecticut State 60-40 in a slow game (59 possessions) in the John Thompson Challenge in Ann Arbor. Dion Harris hit five of eight threes and led the Wolverines with 19 points. Michigan won with ease in a game where they turned the ball over on almost 29 percent of their possessions. (Box score.)
Penn State beat Morehead State 63-46 in State College, which makes three "State"s in this sentence. Jamelle Cornley led the Nittany Lions in shots, rebounds (12), and points (17), as the Penn State offense struggled a bit (1.02 points per possession) in the absence of Geary Claxton (out with a broken finger). The Nittany Lions shot better on their threes (46.7 percent) than on their twos (41.9) in this game. Credit for the outside shooting goes to Mike Walker who made all three of his attempts from beyond the arc; his teammates, conversely, went 4-of-12. (Box score (pdf).)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops: Saturday!
Ohio State beat Loyola 87-75 in second-round action in the BCA Classic in Columbus. This was much more impressive than the Buckeyes' performance Friday night. The Ramblers return five starters from a 19-11 team and are favored to win the Horizon this year. Ron Lewis led OSU with 27 points and the Buckeyes displayed (highly) unusual strength on the offensive glass, recording 13 offensive boards in just 31 opportunities. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Davidson 78-68 in the John Thompson Challenge in Ann Arbor. Dion Harris made just two of seven threes but got it done from the line, going 11-of-12, and led the Wolverines in minutes, shots, assists (six), and points (23). Courtney Sims added 21 points for Michigan, while Brent Petway recorded 13 rebounds. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops: Sunday!
Ohio State beat Kent State 81-59 in the championship game of the BCA Classic in Columbus. The Buckeyes cruised to the victory despite the fact that Kent State pulled in 18 offensive boards on just 36 opportunities. Good shooting erases a lot of mistakes: OSU hit 13 of their 26 threes. Ron Lewis led Ohio State with 18 points. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 80-51 in the John Thompson Challenge in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines led this game by 30 at halftime and Tommy Amaker played his reserves extensively. Courtney Sims led Michigan with 17 points in 19 minutes. (Box score.)
Wisconsin beat Mercer 72-48 in Madison. Kammron Taylor made four of his five threes and scored 22 points. Alando Tucker missed all five of his threes and scored 21. (Box score (pdf).)
Michigan State beat The Citadel 73-41 in a very slow game (56 possessions) in East Lansing. Drew Neitzel led the Spartans with 17 points. (Box score.)
The extended weekend in Big Ten hoops: tonight!
Purdue opens its season against Northern Colorado in West Lafayette.
Illinois opens its season against Austin Peay in Champaign.
Minnesota opens its season against North Dakota State in Minneapolis.
Iowa opens its season against The Citadel in Iowa City.
Indiana opens its season against Lafayette as part of the Preseason NIT at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Penn State plays UNC-Greensboro in State College.
November 13, 2006: remember the date
My understanding is that ESPN's telecast of Preseason NIT games tonight will feature, however fleetingly, some tempo-free stats assembled just for the occasion by Ken Pomeroy.
That's big. It pains me to have Notre Dame fans email me and say they didn't realize their offense was that good or to have Michigan fans email me and say they didn't realize their defense was that bad. Something as simple as points per possession--for and against, spread far and wide by ESPN and its ilk--can put such bad old days quickly behind us. Seven months ago I voiced a desire for "baby steps" along these very lines. The first such, it appears, are about to be taken.
Good.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Experimental theater in Evanston
On Friday I suggested that Northwestern coach Bill Carmody should take a cue from his university's world-renowned theater program and stage a little drama of his own.
The readers respond!
Appreciate the work and thought. I guess the thing we Wildcat fans will have to learn as we go on into the season is this: To what extent are we going to see the newcomers take the floor? These are the guys we really don't know much of anything about yet, the majority of the squad. If we have some talent there, and that combines with significant playing time and steep learning curves, the team in February may bear very little resemblance to the one that we're analyzing right now.
Put another way, I think this season is going to be experimental. Try this, look at that, adjust the other, substitute Y for X, etc. Some experiments are bound to blow up in your face, but then you need that in order to stumble across a "Eureka" moment.
Tom M.
Good luck with the experiment, Tom! (Wear safety goggles at all times.)
¶ 6:14 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto perimeter-oriented young men from Columbus, OH, proud members of the Big Ten since 1912....
Last year
26-6 overall, 12-4 in conference. Lost in second round of NCAA tournament to Georgetown, 70-52.
Back
Ron Lewis (11.2 PPG, 1.18 PPWS, 7.5 reb. pct., 3.4 assists per 100 possessions, 4.6 TOs per 100 possessions)
Jamar Butler (10.1 PPG, 1.20 PPWS, 5.8 reb. pct., 8.5 a/100 poss., 3.4 TO/100 poss.)
Ivan Harris (3.6 PPG)
Matt Terwilliger (2.3 PPG)
New
Greg Oden (7-1 C, Indianapolis)
Daequan Cook (6-5 G, Dayton, OH)
Mike Conley, Jr. (6-1 G, Indianapolis)
David Lighty (6-5 G, Cleveland)
Othello Hunter (6-9 F, Winston-Salem, NC)
Gone
Terence Dials (15.3 PPG, 1.16 PPWS, 15.6 reb. pct., 1.2 a/100 poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
Je'Kel Foster (12.2 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 7.6 reb. pct., 5.6 a/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
J.J. Sullinger (10.1 PPG, 1.20 PPWS, 14.3 reb. pct., 3.1 a/100 poss., 3.0 TO/100 poss.)
Matt Sylvester (7.4 PPG, 0.97 PPWS, 6.5 reb. pct., 6.9 a/100 poss., 3.8 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Lobbying earnestly to revise the NBA's minimum draft age to 22."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Right now--mid-November--is the moment in the college hoops calendar when the overrating of individual talent at the expense of team performance is at its most egregious. And yet we do it every year, over and over: the preseason favorites look invincible. Their McDonald's All-American players are profiled ad nauseum. The favorites are unbeatable, on another level.
March is the opposite, of course. Win-or-go-home games played on neutral courts have a way of reminding us that this putative "different level" is much more a labor-saving device for our own individual attention spans than a true reflection of external reality.
And so in that spirit I want to say that I just don't believe Greg Oden's going to be as good as everyone's saying he's going to be.
I think he's going to be better. Much better.
Punctuated equilibrium and college hoops
Just eight short months ago, I wrote the following about a Big Ten player:
Over the past decade as the NBA has increasingly and now completely cornered the market on carbon-based life forms who are 6-10 or taller and can walk and chew gum at the same time, we have seen more of [this player's] ilk. He is a "dominant" big man (especially on offense) though in fact he is but 6-9. (Back in the day he would have been a solid power forward.)
I was talking about Terence Dials, conveniently enough. Oden, playing the same position for the same team as Dials, represents the sudden and abrupt reversal of this dynamic. Future hoops paleontologists, poring over box scores like so many fossilized remains, will wonder at the quantum leap captured by this little bit of deduction:
--Terence Dials was Big Ten Player of the Year in 2006.
--Greg Oden is four inches taller than Dials, equally strong, more athletic, and as quick if not quicker.
--Conclusion: Eep.
And that's speaking only of offense. There will be no DAD in this look at Oden--let's do the same for defense....
--In each of the past two seasons, the best defense in the Big Ten has been led by a dominant defensive presence in the post.
--Those two exceptional defenders were Jeff Hagen of Minnesota and Erek Hansen of Iowa.
--Greg Oden is not Jeff Hagen or Erek Hansen. He's Greg Oden.
--Conclusion: Eep.
And now for the really scary part, as least as far as ten other Big Ten teams are concerned. Thad Matta's Ohio State teams already, pre-Oden, play outstanding perimeter defense--and that was with no shot-blocking in the post backing them up. (Matta says on his team "all five guys are going to guard the ball." All coaches talk like that. Matta's teams--with recruits he inherited--have for the most part played like it.) If the overlap between new arrivals buying into the Matta system and Oden's post-injury but pre-draft time is at all considerable, we may just see the best defense we've seen in the Big Ten since Michigan State in 2000.
In point of fact the NBA's predilection for skimming off the cream of the high school crop in any given year was not an unalloyed negative where college hoops is concerned. For every LeBron James we didn't get to see play in college, there were three or four Kwame Browns we, thankfully, didn't have to see. Still, the almost total disappearance of the dominant big man (over the past 15 years it can be said of college rosters that height has existed in imperfect but trusty inverse relation to athleticism) has wrought a slow change on the game.
But slow change can at times be overturned by something much more sudden. And, if the performance lives up to the promise in this instance, you'd need Stephen Jay Gould and Niles Eldredge to explain something as abrupt and seismic as the arrival of Greg Oden.
Meet this blog's POY from last season
I chose Jamar Butler as my POY last year because of his across-the-board excellence:
Far and away the easiest question for me to answer as part of this little exercise was: who's the best point guard in the league? Dee Brown, Daniel Horton, and Drew Neitzel all have their strong points. But Butler, at least this year, had no weak points. He was stellar across the board: shooting 44 percent on his threes, dishing more than eight assists every 100 possessions (and even that number is slightly deflated by the Buckeyes' Illinois-in-2005-like ability to spread assists around), never turning the ball over, and playing consistently tough D. None of the others named above can say as much.
More love for Butler here.
Foul me before I drive again
Ron Lewis gets to the line better than any other player in the Big Ten and is a pretty good (not great) FT shooter once he gets there (78.1 percent). His shot selection last season was at times questionable (more than half his shots were attempted threes, yet he only made 33.9 percent of them) but this didn't matter much when he was the fourth option on the best offense in the Big Ten. It may not matter much this year either.
So does that mean Tony Stockman was "The In-Door Icemaker"?
Butler calls Ivan Harris "the microwave" in honor of the senior's ability to come off the bench and hit threes.
Depth in the post?
Matt Terwilliger takes prodigiously good care of the ball--even for one who never gets touches--but his rebounding and scoring are less noteworthy.
And the new breed....
Daequan Cook obviously has a green light from Matta. Here it is, November 13 of the young man's freshman season, and he's already launched 36 shots from the field in three games.
As early as it is, Mike Conley, Jr., already gives indications of being one of those freshmen that doesn't play like a freshman. See: 25 assists in three games.
David Lighty had some off-court offseason hijinks.
Othello Hunter is a juco transfer praised by Matta for his drive and athleticism.
"No acts of 'charity,' OK, coach?"
Matta has a new contract. Hope the OSU lawyers learned their lesson.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Games! Actual games!
The weekend in Big Ten hoops: Friday!
Cornell beat Northwestern 64-61 in Evanston. While it's true just 15 of the Big Red's 43 shots were attempted from inside the arc, the visitors made no fewer than 11 of those 15 two-point shots. Ballgame. Give the Wildcats this much: they had balanced scoring, including 11 points from newly eligible Rice transfer Jason Okrzesik and 10 from true freshman and starter Kevin Coble. Tim Doyle recorded eight assists in 39+ minutes. (Box score.)
Ohio State beat VMI 107-69 in opening-round action in the BCA Classic in Columbus. Don't be fooled by the 107 points. In fact, the Buckeye offense was exactly as efficient--no more, no less--as in Big Ten play last year. (Which, by the way, was pretty dang efficient.) It's just that this was by far the fastest game played by a Big Ten team the past two seasons: 96 possessions. Mike Conley, Jr., recorded 10 assists in 26 minutes. Daequan Cook went just 2-of-7 outside the arc but 7-of-7 inside it to lead OSU with 22 points. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Central Connecticut State 60-40 in a slow game (59 possessions) in the John Thompson Challenge in Ann Arbor. Dion Harris hit five of eight threes and led the Wolverines with 19 points. Michigan won with ease in a game where they turned the ball over on almost 29 percent of their possessions. (Box score.)
Penn State beat Morehead State 63-46 in State College, which makes three "State"s in this sentence. Jamelle Cornley led the Nittany Lions in shots, rebounds (12), and points (17), as the Penn State offense struggled a bit (1.02 points per possession) in the absence of Geary Claxton (out with a broken finger). The Nittany Lions shot better on their threes (46.7 percent) than on their twos (41.9) in this game. Credit for the outside shooting goes to Mike Walker who made all three of his attempts from beyond the arc; his teammates, conversely, went 4-of-12. (Box score (pdf).)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops: Saturday!
Ohio State beat Loyola 87-75 in second-round action in the BCA Classic in Columbus. This was much more impressive than the Buckeyes' performance Friday night. The Ramblers return five starters from a 19-11 team and are favored to win the Horizon this year. Ron Lewis led OSU with 27 points and the Buckeyes displayed (highly) unusual strength on the offensive glass, recording 13 offensive boards in just 31 opportunities. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Davidson 78-68 in the John Thompson Challenge in Ann Arbor. Dion Harris made just two of seven threes but got it done from the line, going 11-of-12, and led the Wolverines in minutes, shots, assists (six), and points (23). Courtney Sims added 21 points for Michigan, while Brent Petway recorded 13 rebounds. (Box score.)
The weekend in Big Ten hoops: Sunday!
Ohio State beat Kent State 81-59 in the championship game of the BCA Classic in Columbus. The Buckeyes cruised to the victory despite the fact that Kent State pulled in 18 offensive boards on just 36 opportunities. Good shooting erases a lot of mistakes: OSU hit 13 of their 26 threes. Ron Lewis led Ohio State with 18 points. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Eastern Michigan 80-51 in the John Thompson Challenge in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines led this game by 30 at halftime and Tommy Amaker played his reserves extensively. Courtney Sims led Michigan with 17 points in 19 minutes. (Box score.)
Wisconsin beat Mercer 72-48 in Madison. Kammron Taylor made four of his five threes and scored 22 points. Alando Tucker missed all five of his threes and scored 21. (Box score (pdf).)
Michigan State beat The Citadel 73-41 in a very slow game (56 possessions) in East Lansing. Drew Neitzel led the Spartans with 17 points. (Box score.)
The extended weekend in Big Ten hoops: tonight!
Purdue opens its season against Northern Colorado in West Lafayette.
Illinois opens its season against Austin Peay in Champaign.
Minnesota opens its season against North Dakota State in Minneapolis.
Iowa opens its season against The Citadel in Iowa City.
Indiana opens its season against Lafayette as part of the Preseason NIT at Conseco Fieldhouse in Indianapolis.
Penn State plays UNC-Greensboro in State College.
November 13, 2006: remember the date
My understanding is that ESPN's telecast of Preseason NIT games tonight will feature, however fleetingly, some tempo-free stats assembled just for the occasion by Ken Pomeroy.
That's big. It pains me to have Notre Dame fans email me and say they didn't realize their offense was that good or to have Michigan fans email me and say they didn't realize their defense was that bad. Something as simple as points per possession--for and against, spread far and wide by ESPN and its ilk--can put such bad old days quickly behind us. Seven months ago I voiced a desire for "baby steps" along these very lines. The first such, it appears, are about to be taken.
Good.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Experimental theater in Evanston
On Friday I suggested that Northwestern coach Bill Carmody should take a cue from his university's world-renowned theater program and stage a little drama of his own.
The readers respond!
Appreciate the work and thought. I guess the thing we Wildcat fans will have to learn as we go on into the season is this: To what extent are we going to see the newcomers take the floor? These are the guys we really don't know much of anything about yet, the majority of the squad. If we have some talent there, and that combines with significant playing time and steep learning curves, the team in February may bear very little resemblance to the one that we're analyzing right now.
Put another way, I think this season is going to be experimental. Try this, look at that, adjust the other, substitute Y for X, etc. Some experiments are bound to blow up in your face, but then you need that in order to stumble across a "Eureka" moment.
Tom M.
Good luck with the experiment, Tom! (Wear safety goggles at all times.)
¶ 6:14 AM
Friday, November 10, 2006
Presenting Northwestern: a one-act mystery
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the erudite, urbane, and apparently rebounding-averse young men from Evanston, IL, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
14-15 overall, 6-10 in conference.
Back
Tim Doyle (8.0 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 8.7 reb. pct., 8.6 assists per 100 possessions, 5.0 TOs per 100 possessions)
Craig Moore (6.8 PPG, 1.11 PPWS, 4.6 reb. pct., 5.8 a/100 poss., 2.9 TO/100 poss.)
Sterling Williams (3.4 PPG, 0.89 PPWS, 7.7 reb. pct., 3.9 a/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
Vince Scott (3.0 PPG)
New
Kevin Coble (6-9 F, Phoenix)
Jason Okrzesik (6-1 G, transfer from Rice)
Jeff Ryan (6-7 F, Glenview IL)
Jeremy Nash (6-4 G, Chicago)
Nikola Baran (6-8 F, Zagreb, Croatia)
Ivan Peljusic (6-8 F, Zadar, Croatia)
Gone
Vedran Vukusic (19.0 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 6.7 reb. pct., 3.1 a/100 poss., 3.4 TO/100 poss.)
Mohamed Hachad (11.8 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 11.0 reb. pct., 3.9 a/100 poss., 6.5 TO/100 poss.)
Bernard Cote (4.2 PPG, 0.96 PP....Look, forget the stats--this is his girlfriend)
Evan Seacat (2.6 PPG)
Michael Jenkins (2.0 PPG)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Still undefeated in NCAA tournament play."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Remember in March 2005 when Michigan State coach Tom Izzo used a large rubber mallet to smash the videotapes of his team's dispiriting loss to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals? The Spartans then went on to the Final Four and everyone talked about what an inspired piece of practice-facility dramaturgy Izzo had executed.
Well, if I were Bill Carmody, I would stage the following little set-piece in the practice gym this afternoon....
CARMODY: Gather round here, guys. I've got someone that wants to make your acquaintance. Fellahs, meet Team X!
TEAM X GUY (enters all in black, sporting a really cool mask with a giant X, just like Racer X): Hello.
PLAYERS: Uh, hi.
CARMODY: Guys, I've asked Team X here today to help me dispel some misconceptions about our own team. Now, the important thing for you to know about Team X is that they're a very good team from a different conference. Not great, maybe, but very good. I'm talking top-25, a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament, and a trip to the Sweet 16. You'd take that, wouldn't you?
PLAYERS: Yes, we would.
CARMODY: I thought so. Now then, let's compare our performance in-conference last year to Team X's performance in-conference last year. I think you'll find it quite illuminating. Ready, Team X?
TEAM X GUY: Yes, I am.
CARMODY: Alright. Now, let's start with defense. Team X, we take a lot of grief for our D here. Everyone says the only reason the scores are so low is because we play so slow. Well, the fact of the matter is last year we allowed 1.04 points per possession. How many did you give up?
TEAM X GUY: 1.03 points per possession.
PLAYERS: Murmur, murmur.
CARMODY: Really? You know, we allowed opponents to post a 52.3 effective FG pct. How about you?
TEAM X GUY: 52.9.
CARMODY: Our opponents turned the ball over to us on 23 percent of their possessions. Yours?
TEAM X GUY: 23.6.
PLAYERS: Murmur! Murmur!
CARMODY: OK, now the rebounding. Everyone always says we can't rebound. Well, maybe it's not our strong suit. Be that as it may, last year our defensive rebound percentage was 64.2. What was yours?
TEAM X GUY: 63.4.
PLAYERS: MURMUR! MURMUR!
CARMODY (turning to his players): Sixty-three-point-four, gentlemen. Sixty-three-point-four. Top-25, Sweet 16, and they're worse on the defensive glass than we are!
PLAYERS: Gosh.
CARMODY: Alright, then. Let's talk about offense. We had a 52.1 effective FG pct. last year. What was yours, Team X?
TEAM X GUY: 52.7.
CARMODY: Yeah, but what about this: I can't tell you how often I hear that our offensive rebounding is just terrible. Some of the worst in the country, they say. Well, you know what? Maybe they're right. After all, our offensive rebound percentage last year was 22.0. That's pretty low, alright. But I'd sure be interested to know--what was yours?
TEAM X GUY: 21.8.
PLAYERS: Gasp!
CARMODY (turning to his players): Twenty-one-point-eight, gentlemen. Twenty-one-point-eight. Top-25, Sweet 16, and they're worse on the offensive boards than we are!
PLAYERS: Gee.
CARMODY: Well, Team X, I have to tell you. I'm hearing that there are a lot of similarities between our teams. I mean our defenses are the same, our shooting's the same, and we're even a little better on the boards than you are! So how is it you get to the Sweet 16?
TEAM X GUY: You forgot to ask me about turnovers.
CARMODY: OK, what about turnovers? We gave the ball away on 21.5 percent of our possessions. You?
TEAM X GUY: 11.9.
PLAYERS: GASP!
CARMODY (turning to players): And there you have it, gentlemen. We're the same as or better than Team X in every statistical measure except turnovers. Holding on to the ball spells the difference between the Sweet 16 and going 6-10 in-conference. Thank you, Team X.
PLAYERS: Hey, wait a minute. He forgot to tell us which team he really is.
TEAM X GUY: I am...(moves to take off his mask)...FLORIDA!
PLAYERS: GASP!
TEAM X GUY: No, just kidding. Oh, man, you should have see some of your faces, though. It was priceless. I mean, as if, right? Like you're going to be Florida this year. That's rich, really. Just too much....
PLAYERS: So who are you, really?
TEAM X GUY: I'm West Virginia.
PLAYERS: Cool! We're going to be like you this year!
TEAM X GUY: Murmur, murmur.
Northwestern: a critique
Northwestern and West Virginia are both POTs--perimeter-oriented teams. The problem with the Wildcats' variety of the style is that they're paying the customarily heavy price for being a POT--they never get offensive boards and they never go to the line--without getting the key benefit: not turning the ball over. Northwestern turns the ball over at a rate that would be more in line with a team that methodically feeds the post than one that devotes 47 percent of its shots to threes.
The problem with saying you're going to be like West Virginia in 2006 where turnovers are concerned, however, is that saying this is only slightly less ridiculous than a baseball player saying he's going to be like Joe DiMaggio in 1941 where hitting is concerned. The Mountaineers last season were a teachably extreme case, one that furnishes insight but certainly not an exemplar. While WVU turned the ball over on only 11.9 percent of their possessions in Big East play, the average in-conference number here for "power"-conference offenses last season was 20.7 percent. West Virginia was operating several orders of magnitude beyond reality last year as far as turnovers. Still, improvement in holding on to the ball constitutes the critical need in Evanston this season.
On defense last year NU was better than on offense: only slightly below the conference average. The Wildcats didn't get many defensive boards, of course, and opponents shot fairly well against them. But Carmody's men did create turnovers in abundance. They've done so in Evanston now for two years running. They will want to continue that tradition.
BONUS warning to season ticket holders!
Tim Doyle on the 2007 team: "The style of game we play may be even more boring this year, taking the air out of the ball because we don't have a lot of great scorers....We’re going to be even more strict within the offense. The team has bought into the system more because we have less individual talent."
Speaking of Doyle....
"Tim Doyle. Meet the Tim Doyle." (Sung to the tune of "The Flintstones")
I like Tim Doyle. At the Big Ten's media day, he opened up this season's Wildcat media guide, flipped to the page with the team picture, and held it up for Indiana's Roderick Wilmont to see from a nearby table: "Hey, Wilmont! Does this team strike fear in you?" Refreshingly non-earnest and quite appropriately self-deprecating Big Ten player Tim Doyle, Wonk salutes you!
As for non-banquet-room matters, for all the talk of his "Fred Flintstone body," Doyle is in fact a skilled player, one who records an astonishing number of assists for a small forward. Plus his shot selection is superb: his 2FG pct. is excellent and the scarce number of attempts he launches from outside the arc reflects that.
Main area for Doyle to work on: holding on to the ball.
"Because there are no fours...."
Craig Moore is a 35.5 percent three-point shooter--not bad, not good, just OK. Yet Moore is undeniably noteworthy: no player in the Big Ten last year came within a country mile of devoting as large a share of his FG attempts to threes as did the feisty Wildcat from Pennsylvania, who launched 152 attempts from outside the arc and just 19 from inside it. (That's 89 percent of his attempts.) Ordinarily I'd be interested in such a player's FT percentage, to see if he gives hints of being an intrinsically good shooter. But since Moore attempted just 13 free throws last year, your guess is as good as mine.
All-handle, no-shoot
Sterling Williams had a disastrous year last season shooting the ball but proved surprisingly trustworthy with that very same ball. Normal sophomore-year improvement in shooting could make Williams a key contributor. (Granted, his 62.0 FT percentage suggests he won't be the primary three-point threat anytime soon. Still, it's not unreasonable to expect improvement in his 41.1 2FG pct.)
Horace Greeley said: Go into the paint, young man
Vince Scott had a tough year last year. Attempted threes constituted almost 40 percent of his shots--despite the inconvenient fact that he was making less than 23 percent of his threes. And a 9.3 rebound percentage, even given NU's stylistic eccentricities, is way low for a player listed at 6-11.
Etc.
Kevin Coble appears to be a skilled 6-9 freshman, having averaged 27 points a game and shot 87 percent from the line last year in HS ball in greater Phoenix.
Jason Okrzesik is a native of Oak Park and has transferred back home, sort of, from Rice.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan State beat Youngstown State 86-61 last night in East Lansing in second-round action in the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." "Dominance" does little descriptive justice to what the Spartans achieved on the offensive boards in this game, for Tom Izzo's men hauled in 15 offensive boards on only 24 misses. Also note: only 24 misses. MSU had a fun night shooting the ball, going 9-of-13 on their threes. This display of perimeter shooting was almost exclusively the work of two players: Drew Neitzel (5-of-8, led the Spartans with 17 points) and Maurice Joseph (4-of-4). Goran Suton added 12 boards in 27 minutes for Michigan State. The Spartans move on to the semifinals of this event, to be played Thursday night in Madison Square Garden. (Box score.)
Northwestern opens regular season play against Cornell tonight in Evanston.
Penn State opens regular season play tonight in State College against Morehead State.
Michigan opens regular season play tonight against Central Connecticut in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State opens regular season play tonight in Columbus against VMI.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
¶ 6:53 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the erudite, urbane, and apparently rebounding-averse young men from Evanston, IL, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
14-15 overall, 6-10 in conference.
Back
Tim Doyle (8.0 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 8.7 reb. pct., 8.6 assists per 100 possessions, 5.0 TOs per 100 possessions)
Craig Moore (6.8 PPG, 1.11 PPWS, 4.6 reb. pct., 5.8 a/100 poss., 2.9 TO/100 poss.)
Sterling Williams (3.4 PPG, 0.89 PPWS, 7.7 reb. pct., 3.9 a/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
Vince Scott (3.0 PPG)
New
Kevin Coble (6-9 F, Phoenix)
Jason Okrzesik (6-1 G, transfer from Rice)
Jeff Ryan (6-7 F, Glenview IL)
Jeremy Nash (6-4 G, Chicago)
Nikola Baran (6-8 F, Zagreb, Croatia)
Ivan Peljusic (6-8 F, Zadar, Croatia)
Gone
Vedran Vukusic (19.0 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 6.7 reb. pct., 3.1 a/100 poss., 3.4 TO/100 poss.)
Mohamed Hachad (11.8 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 11.0 reb. pct., 3.9 a/100 poss., 6.5 TO/100 poss.)
Bernard Cote (4.2 PPG, 0.96 PP....Look, forget the stats--this is his girlfriend)
Evan Seacat (2.6 PPG)
Michael Jenkins (2.0 PPG)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Still undefeated in NCAA tournament play."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Remember in March 2005 when Michigan State coach Tom Izzo used a large rubber mallet to smash the videotapes of his team's dispiriting loss to Iowa in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals? The Spartans then went on to the Final Four and everyone talked about what an inspired piece of practice-facility dramaturgy Izzo had executed.
Well, if I were Bill Carmody, I would stage the following little set-piece in the practice gym this afternoon....
CARMODY: Gather round here, guys. I've got someone that wants to make your acquaintance. Fellahs, meet Team X!
TEAM X GUY (enters all in black, sporting a really cool mask with a giant X, just like Racer X): Hello.
PLAYERS: Uh, hi.
CARMODY: Guys, I've asked Team X here today to help me dispel some misconceptions about our own team. Now, the important thing for you to know about Team X is that they're a very good team from a different conference. Not great, maybe, but very good. I'm talking top-25, a 6-seed in the NCAA tournament, and a trip to the Sweet 16. You'd take that, wouldn't you?
PLAYERS: Yes, we would.
CARMODY: I thought so. Now then, let's compare our performance in-conference last year to Team X's performance in-conference last year. I think you'll find it quite illuminating. Ready, Team X?
TEAM X GUY: Yes, I am.
CARMODY: Alright. Now, let's start with defense. Team X, we take a lot of grief for our D here. Everyone says the only reason the scores are so low is because we play so slow. Well, the fact of the matter is last year we allowed 1.04 points per possession. How many did you give up?
TEAM X GUY: 1.03 points per possession.
PLAYERS: Murmur, murmur.
CARMODY: Really? You know, we allowed opponents to post a 52.3 effective FG pct. How about you?
TEAM X GUY: 52.9.
CARMODY: Our opponents turned the ball over to us on 23 percent of their possessions. Yours?
TEAM X GUY: 23.6.
PLAYERS: Murmur! Murmur!
CARMODY: OK, now the rebounding. Everyone always says we can't rebound. Well, maybe it's not our strong suit. Be that as it may, last year our defensive rebound percentage was 64.2. What was yours?
TEAM X GUY: 63.4.
PLAYERS: MURMUR! MURMUR!
CARMODY (turning to his players): Sixty-three-point-four, gentlemen. Sixty-three-point-four. Top-25, Sweet 16, and they're worse on the defensive glass than we are!
PLAYERS: Gosh.
CARMODY: Alright, then. Let's talk about offense. We had a 52.1 effective FG pct. last year. What was yours, Team X?
TEAM X GUY: 52.7.
CARMODY: Yeah, but what about this: I can't tell you how often I hear that our offensive rebounding is just terrible. Some of the worst in the country, they say. Well, you know what? Maybe they're right. After all, our offensive rebound percentage last year was 22.0. That's pretty low, alright. But I'd sure be interested to know--what was yours?
TEAM X GUY: 21.8.
PLAYERS: Gasp!
CARMODY (turning to his players): Twenty-one-point-eight, gentlemen. Twenty-one-point-eight. Top-25, Sweet 16, and they're worse on the offensive boards than we are!
PLAYERS: Gee.
CARMODY: Well, Team X, I have to tell you. I'm hearing that there are a lot of similarities between our teams. I mean our defenses are the same, our shooting's the same, and we're even a little better on the boards than you are! So how is it you get to the Sweet 16?
TEAM X GUY: You forgot to ask me about turnovers.
CARMODY: OK, what about turnovers? We gave the ball away on 21.5 percent of our possessions. You?
TEAM X GUY: 11.9.
PLAYERS: GASP!
CARMODY (turning to players): And there you have it, gentlemen. We're the same as or better than Team X in every statistical measure except turnovers. Holding on to the ball spells the difference between the Sweet 16 and going 6-10 in-conference. Thank you, Team X.
PLAYERS: Hey, wait a minute. He forgot to tell us which team he really is.
TEAM X GUY: I am...(moves to take off his mask)...FLORIDA!
PLAYERS: GASP!
TEAM X GUY: No, just kidding. Oh, man, you should have see some of your faces, though. It was priceless. I mean, as if, right? Like you're going to be Florida this year. That's rich, really. Just too much....
PLAYERS: So who are you, really?
TEAM X GUY: I'm West Virginia.
PLAYERS: Cool! We're going to be like you this year!
TEAM X GUY: Murmur, murmur.
Northwestern: a critique
Northwestern and West Virginia are both POTs--perimeter-oriented teams. The problem with the Wildcats' variety of the style is that they're paying the customarily heavy price for being a POT--they never get offensive boards and they never go to the line--without getting the key benefit: not turning the ball over. Northwestern turns the ball over at a rate that would be more in line with a team that methodically feeds the post than one that devotes 47 percent of its shots to threes.
The problem with saying you're going to be like West Virginia in 2006 where turnovers are concerned, however, is that saying this is only slightly less ridiculous than a baseball player saying he's going to be like Joe DiMaggio in 1941 where hitting is concerned. The Mountaineers last season were a teachably extreme case, one that furnishes insight but certainly not an exemplar. While WVU turned the ball over on only 11.9 percent of their possessions in Big East play, the average in-conference number here for "power"-conference offenses last season was 20.7 percent. West Virginia was operating several orders of magnitude beyond reality last year as far as turnovers. Still, improvement in holding on to the ball constitutes the critical need in Evanston this season.
On defense last year NU was better than on offense: only slightly below the conference average. The Wildcats didn't get many defensive boards, of course, and opponents shot fairly well against them. But Carmody's men did create turnovers in abundance. They've done so in Evanston now for two years running. They will want to continue that tradition.
BONUS warning to season ticket holders!
Tim Doyle on the 2007 team: "The style of game we play may be even more boring this year, taking the air out of the ball because we don't have a lot of great scorers....We’re going to be even more strict within the offense. The team has bought into the system more because we have less individual talent."
Speaking of Doyle....
"Tim Doyle. Meet the Tim Doyle." (Sung to the tune of "The Flintstones")
I like Tim Doyle. At the Big Ten's media day, he opened up this season's Wildcat media guide, flipped to the page with the team picture, and held it up for Indiana's Roderick Wilmont to see from a nearby table: "Hey, Wilmont! Does this team strike fear in you?" Refreshingly non-earnest and quite appropriately self-deprecating Big Ten player Tim Doyle, Wonk salutes you!
As for non-banquet-room matters, for all the talk of his "Fred Flintstone body," Doyle is in fact a skilled player, one who records an astonishing number of assists for a small forward. Plus his shot selection is superb: his 2FG pct. is excellent and the scarce number of attempts he launches from outside the arc reflects that.
Main area for Doyle to work on: holding on to the ball.
"Because there are no fours...."
Craig Moore is a 35.5 percent three-point shooter--not bad, not good, just OK. Yet Moore is undeniably noteworthy: no player in the Big Ten last year came within a country mile of devoting as large a share of his FG attempts to threes as did the feisty Wildcat from Pennsylvania, who launched 152 attempts from outside the arc and just 19 from inside it. (That's 89 percent of his attempts.) Ordinarily I'd be interested in such a player's FT percentage, to see if he gives hints of being an intrinsically good shooter. But since Moore attempted just 13 free throws last year, your guess is as good as mine.
All-handle, no-shoot
Sterling Williams had a disastrous year last season shooting the ball but proved surprisingly trustworthy with that very same ball. Normal sophomore-year improvement in shooting could make Williams a key contributor. (Granted, his 62.0 FT percentage suggests he won't be the primary three-point threat anytime soon. Still, it's not unreasonable to expect improvement in his 41.1 2FG pct.)
Horace Greeley said: Go into the paint, young man
Vince Scott had a tough year last year. Attempted threes constituted almost 40 percent of his shots--despite the inconvenient fact that he was making less than 23 percent of his threes. And a 9.3 rebound percentage, even given NU's stylistic eccentricities, is way low for a player listed at 6-11.
Etc.
Kevin Coble appears to be a skilled 6-9 freshman, having averaged 27 points a game and shot 87 percent from the line last year in HS ball in greater Phoenix.
Jason Okrzesik is a native of Oak Park and has transferred back home, sort of, from Rice.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan State beat Youngstown State 86-61 last night in East Lansing in second-round action in the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." "Dominance" does little descriptive justice to what the Spartans achieved on the offensive boards in this game, for Tom Izzo's men hauled in 15 offensive boards on only 24 misses. Also note: only 24 misses. MSU had a fun night shooting the ball, going 9-of-13 on their threes. This display of perimeter shooting was almost exclusively the work of two players: Drew Neitzel (5-of-8, led the Spartans with 17 points) and Maurice Joseph (4-of-4). Goran Suton added 12 boards in 27 minutes for Michigan State. The Spartans move on to the semifinals of this event, to be played Thursday night in Madison Square Garden. (Box score.)
Northwestern opens regular season play against Cornell tonight in Evanston.
Penn State opens regular season play tonight in State College against Morehead State.
Michigan opens regular season play tonight against Central Connecticut in Ann Arbor.
Ohio State opens regular season play tonight in Columbus against VMI.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
¶ 6:53 AM
Thursday, November 09, 2006
Does Minnesota's AD watch "The Office"?
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on that enigmatic but reportedly feisty band of who-dats from Minneapolis, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
16-15 overall, 5-11 in conference. Lost to Cincinnati in second round of the NIT, 76-62.
Back
Spencer Tollackson (8.1 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 12.1 reb. pct., 3.0 assists per 100 possessions, 4.4 TOs per 100 possessions)
Dan Coleman (7.3 PPG, 0.97 PPWS, 10.4 reb. pct., 1.2 a/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
Jamal Abu-Shamala (5.0 PPG, 1.24 PPWS, 7.8 reb. pct., 2.1 a/100 poss., 2.9 TO/100 poss.)
Brandon Smith (3.0 PPG--missed last 18 games due to academic ineligibility)
Jonathan Williams (1.4 PPG)
New
Lawrence McKenzie (6-2 G, transfer from Oklahoma--enters as senior)
Limar Wilson (5-11 G, JC transfer)
Kevin Payton (6-5 G, redshirt freshman)
Damian Johnson (6-7 F, redshirt freshman)
Bryce Webster (6-9 F, St. Paul)
Lawrence Westbrook (6-0 G, Chandler, AZ)
Engen Nurumbi (6-7 F, JC transfer)
Gone
Vincent Grier (15.7 PPG, 0.99 PPWS, 10.4 reb. pct., 4.4 a/100 poss., 5.0 TO/100 poss.)
Moe Hargrow (11.2 PPG, 1.06 PPWS, 7.1 reb. pct., 6.0 a/100 poss., 5.2 TO/100 poss.)
Adam Boone (10.3 PPG, 1.04 PPWS, 5.0 reb. pct., 8.1 a/100poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
J'son Stamper (6.1 PPG, 0.95 PPWS, 14.6 reb. pct., 3.1 a/100 poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
Rico Tucker (4.5 PPG, 0.85 PPWS, 4.9 reb. pct., 4.9 a/100 poss., 7.8 TO/100 poss.)
Zach Puchtel (2.3 PPG, 1.15 PPWS, 12.3 reb. pct., 2.8 a/100 poss., 2.0 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"We hereby swear that we're entirely comfortable with the following sequence of words: 'Leading returning scorer Spencer Tollackson.'"
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Last March 22 the Minneapolis Star Tribune, citing anonymous "sources outside the university with knowledge of the situation," reported that Dan Monson was "not expected to return" as head coach of Minnesota for the 2006-07 season.
That evening Gopher athletic director Joel Maturi held a press conference and said the report was incorrect, that Monson would be staying on as coach.
And here is how Maturi said that:
I've told this to Dan, if this were the Timberwolves and I were the GM, maybe he wouldn't be coaching next year....But I don't want to be the Timberwolves and I'm not the GM. I'm the athletic director at an academic institution that has some values, has some integrity and we're going to live that and walk the talk.
Keep in mind this was meant as a vote of confidence from an AD standing behind his coach. Boldly counterintuitive Steve Carell-like supervisor Joel Maturi, Wonk salutes you! With positive reinforcement like this, who needs criticism?
BONUS coverage! My annual shamelessly obvious gimme-a-Pulitzer dabble in investigative reporting!
But there's more to this story that what's been reported thus far! My crack team of investigative reporters has uncovered an EXCLUSIVE transcript of the full conversation between Monson and Maturi on March 22 and learned that the Minnesota AD's unique take on the word "support" indeed runs deep.
The key passages read as follows:
MATURI: Dan, if this were the Timberwolves and I were the GM, maybe you wouldn't be coaching next year.
MONSON: Oh. Well, um....
MATURI: No, seriously. I mean it. If this were the NFL and you were a quarterback, you wouldn't be anywhere close to Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. You'd be Charlie Frye.
MONSON: Gosh, that really speaks volumes, boss. It does. And I think the important thing moving forward is--
MATURI: What I'm trying to get across here, Dan, is that if you were a Corleone, you can forget about being Michael, much less Vito. You'd be Fredo, Dan. Do you hear what I'm telling you? Fredo.
MONSON: Gee, boss, message received, you know. I think I have a handle on your thinking. Really. Having said that, what I think we need to focus on now is--
MATURI: Dan, I look at it this way. If you were a car, you wouldn't even be allowed in the same lot as a Mercedes or BMW. You'd be an '81 Ford Fairmont. Dark brown with a tan vinyl top. Manual. And a trunk lid that won't shut.
MONSON: Wow, gotta give you that one, boss. Now, about next year's team, I think--
MATURI: Maybe this will help you get a clearer fix on my thinking, Dan. If you were a breakfast cereal, you can just forget about being something tasty like Cookie Crisp or Count Chocula. You'd be All-Bran. You know All-Bran, Dan? It gets mushy and tasteless before I'm even done pouring the milk. I hate that. Don't you hate that, Dan?
MONSON: Man. Gotta tell you, this is really coming through crystal-clear. It is. And that's important because as we build toward next season we'll need to--
MATURI: Dan, if you were one of the Village People....
The 2007 Gophers: can they steal a page from 2005?
Maturi's creative endorsement of his head coach has added still another challenge to what is already intrinsically one of the three or four toughest coaching gigs in the Big Ten. Add to that the fact that graduation and attrition have subtracted no less than 50 points a game from a team that went 5-11 in the Big Ten last year and you're looking at a daunting situation for 2007, to say the least.
Then again two years ago at this time things looked equally grim. Minnesota was being picked for the Big Ten cellar. The team had lost Kris Humphries to the NBA and Adam Boone was out for the year with an injury. No one expected anything from the Gophers that year. And yet that team, led by newly-arrived transfer Vincent Grier, went to the NCAA tournament on the strength of one of the best defenses in the nation. Will that history repeat itself this year?
Monson thinks maybe it can. In fact, he says his 2005 team started the preseason with even "less" on hand than this year's team.
Me, I'm not so sure. We know now what we should have known then about that 2005 team: it had a seven-footer in the post (Jeff Hagen) and a swarm of energetic perimeter defenders (Grier, Rico Tucker, Aaron Robinson, et. al.). This year's team definitely doesn't have a seven-footer--but can they match the defensive intensity of the 2005 Gophers?
It will be very difficult to do so for the simple reason that the seven-footer in question appears to have catalyzed that team's perimeter D. Last year in Hagen's absence Minnesota's interior defense actually improved slightly but opponents nevertheless shot much better on their threes and gave away many fewer turnovers. Bottom line: you can go a long time without seeing a defense as good as the one the Gophers had in 2005. And Monson may have to go at least another year without seeing its like again.
As for the offense, no one can say what we'll see this year, least of all Monson. What we do know is that for two years Minnesota has struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket. Assuming that there is no inherently dominant big man in Minneapolis this season, the emergence of one or two reliably dangerous perimeter shooters (Lawrence McKenzie? Jamal Abu-Shamala?) would be a big help in thinning opposing defenses and opening up the post.
Formally Spencered
Give the man his due: Spencer Tollackson's a surprisingly efficient scorer. But after that the numbers turn meh: he's the most anemic rebounder in the league among returning big men (and particularly nonexistent on the defensive boards) and he never goes to the line. (Good thing! He's a 54.3 percent FT shooter.) Numbers like these can change for the better, of course. Monson hopes they do.
Lawrence of Academia
Oklahoma transfer Lawrence McKenzie has returned to his native Minneapolis and is getting a fair amount of preseason pub. And why not? McKenzie made 43.5 percent of his threes coming off the bench for Kelvin Sampson in Norman in 2005.
Impressive, no? Absolutely. Just remember, though, that shooting threes was all McKenzie did at OU--roughly 71 percent of his shots were threes (about like Mike Walker of Penn State last year). There's nothing wrong with being a three-point specialist, of course. But the three-point specialist usually needs help on offense, either in the form of a big man or other perimeter threats. Otherwise a three-point shooter put in the position of having to carry an offense single-handedly can quickly become a not-so-good three-point shooter. (What hoops analysts in white lab coats term "pulling a GMac.")
McKenzie also appears to have been something of a foul-magnet in his Big XII life. Keep an eye on this.
A riddle wrapped in an enigma cloaked in a Gopher jersey
For someone listed at 6-9, Dan Coleman has a strikingly low 2FG pct.: just 42.7. Otherwise Coleman barely hits the box score--on either side of the ball.
Rudy comes to the Twin Cities
Jamal Abu-Shamala started the year as a walk-on last season but was put on scholarship when it became clear the young man possessed something that's been in short supply in Williams Arena of late: an outside shot. Abu-Shamala hit 47.5 percent of his threes last year but only attempted 59 of them. Agenda for this year: more threes and more of everything else, too, particularly D.
Spielzehn mit die Gophers?
Redshirt freshman and dual-American/Austrian citizen Kevin Payton is reported to be the team's best athlete and could see time at point-guard, shooting guard, or even small forward.
Etc.
Limar Wilson: "the fastest, quickest guy I've ever played with," according to Tollackson.
Bryce Webster: his "6-foot-9, 240-pound body gives him an edge over most players coming out of high school," according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press. More Webster mania here.
In the Gophers first exhibition game last week, freshman Lawrence Westbrook scored 21 points against Bemidji State.
Jonathan Williams blocks shots. If he can stay out of foul trouble, this skill would come in handy this year in Minneapolis.
Engen Nurumbi: "a work in progress," according to Monson.
Ryan Saunders, son of Pistons coach Flip Saunders, is a Gopher co-captain along with McKenzie.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan State beat Brown 45-34 in East Lansing last night in "lethargic" opening-round action in the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." The Bears held the pace to just 51 possessions, recorded a mere eight turnovers, and shot just four free throws--meaning I don't care what it says on their jerseys, this team's from Princeton, if you get my drift. BONUS very sophisticated analysis! Turning the ball over 18 times, as did the Spartans last night, in a game with just 51 possessions is really bad. Maurice Joseph led MSU with 12 points. Marquise Gray got the start but Drew Naymick got the minutes....Tom Izzo did a pretty good Shecky Greene in his postgame remarks: "Before everyone panics, let's look at the positives....There were none." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says Drew Neitzel has to play better....The Spartans will play Youngstown State tonight in East Lansing for the right to play in the semifinals next week in Madison Square Garden. (Box score.)
Winona State beat Minnesota 69-64 last night in an exhibition game in Minneapolis. The Gophers were notably weak on the defensive glass, giving the Warriors 16 offensive boards on 36 misses. "We've got to understand that we're 0-0, and we've got an opportunity to learn from [the loss] and move on," Dan Monson said afterward. Dan Coleman led Minnesota in minutes, shots, and points (20). Lawrence McKenzie attempted 10 threes and made three. Winona State is the defending Division II national champion and, with a prior victory over Drake, has now beaten two D-I teams this exhibition season. (Box score (pdf).)
Wisconsin beat Carroll College 81-61 in an exhibition game in Madison last night. Michael Flowers pulled down 13 boards, 12 of them defensive, in 32 minutes. Alando Tucker attempted five threes and made none. (Box score (pdf).)
Illinois beat Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 76-57 last night in an exhibition game in Champaign. Warren Carter led the Illini in shots and points (17). Bruce Weber was pleased with his team's effort: "They have really played their butts off." (Box score.)
Purdue beat Wisconsin-Platteville 78-46 in an exhibition game in West Lafayette last night. Look in the dictionary under "scoring efficiency" and behold the picture of Carl Landry, who led all scorers with 26 points and needed only 14 shots to do so. David Teague added eight boards for the Boilers. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:20 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on that enigmatic but reportedly feisty band of who-dats from Minneapolis, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
16-15 overall, 5-11 in conference. Lost to Cincinnati in second round of the NIT, 76-62.
Back
Spencer Tollackson (8.1 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 12.1 reb. pct., 3.0 assists per 100 possessions, 4.4 TOs per 100 possessions)
Dan Coleman (7.3 PPG, 0.97 PPWS, 10.4 reb. pct., 1.2 a/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
Jamal Abu-Shamala (5.0 PPG, 1.24 PPWS, 7.8 reb. pct., 2.1 a/100 poss., 2.9 TO/100 poss.)
Brandon Smith (3.0 PPG--missed last 18 games due to academic ineligibility)
Jonathan Williams (1.4 PPG)
New
Lawrence McKenzie (6-2 G, transfer from Oklahoma--enters as senior)
Limar Wilson (5-11 G, JC transfer)
Kevin Payton (6-5 G, redshirt freshman)
Damian Johnson (6-7 F, redshirt freshman)
Bryce Webster (6-9 F, St. Paul)
Lawrence Westbrook (6-0 G, Chandler, AZ)
Engen Nurumbi (6-7 F, JC transfer)
Gone
Vincent Grier (15.7 PPG, 0.99 PPWS, 10.4 reb. pct., 4.4 a/100 poss., 5.0 TO/100 poss.)
Moe Hargrow (11.2 PPG, 1.06 PPWS, 7.1 reb. pct., 6.0 a/100 poss., 5.2 TO/100 poss.)
Adam Boone (10.3 PPG, 1.04 PPWS, 5.0 reb. pct., 8.1 a/100poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
J'son Stamper (6.1 PPG, 0.95 PPWS, 14.6 reb. pct., 3.1 a/100 poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
Rico Tucker (4.5 PPG, 0.85 PPWS, 4.9 reb. pct., 4.9 a/100 poss., 7.8 TO/100 poss.)
Zach Puchtel (2.3 PPG, 1.15 PPWS, 12.3 reb. pct., 2.8 a/100 poss., 2.0 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"We hereby swear that we're entirely comfortable with the following sequence of words: 'Leading returning scorer Spencer Tollackson.'"
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Last March 22 the Minneapolis Star Tribune, citing anonymous "sources outside the university with knowledge of the situation," reported that Dan Monson was "not expected to return" as head coach of Minnesota for the 2006-07 season.
That evening Gopher athletic director Joel Maturi held a press conference and said the report was incorrect, that Monson would be staying on as coach.
And here is how Maturi said that:
I've told this to Dan, if this were the Timberwolves and I were the GM, maybe he wouldn't be coaching next year....But I don't want to be the Timberwolves and I'm not the GM. I'm the athletic director at an academic institution that has some values, has some integrity and we're going to live that and walk the talk.
Keep in mind this was meant as a vote of confidence from an AD standing behind his coach. Boldly counterintuitive Steve Carell-like supervisor Joel Maturi, Wonk salutes you! With positive reinforcement like this, who needs criticism?
BONUS coverage! My annual shamelessly obvious gimme-a-Pulitzer dabble in investigative reporting!
But there's more to this story that what's been reported thus far! My crack team of investigative reporters has uncovered an EXCLUSIVE transcript of the full conversation between Monson and Maturi on March 22 and learned that the Minnesota AD's unique take on the word "support" indeed runs deep.
The key passages read as follows:
MATURI: Dan, if this were the Timberwolves and I were the GM, maybe you wouldn't be coaching next year.
MONSON: Oh. Well, um....
MATURI: No, seriously. I mean it. If this were the NFL and you were a quarterback, you wouldn't be anywhere close to Peyton Manning or Tom Brady. You'd be Charlie Frye.
MONSON: Gosh, that really speaks volumes, boss. It does. And I think the important thing moving forward is--
MATURI: What I'm trying to get across here, Dan, is that if you were a Corleone, you can forget about being Michael, much less Vito. You'd be Fredo, Dan. Do you hear what I'm telling you? Fredo.
MONSON: Gee, boss, message received, you know. I think I have a handle on your thinking. Really. Having said that, what I think we need to focus on now is--
MATURI: Dan, I look at it this way. If you were a car, you wouldn't even be allowed in the same lot as a Mercedes or BMW. You'd be an '81 Ford Fairmont. Dark brown with a tan vinyl top. Manual. And a trunk lid that won't shut.
MONSON: Wow, gotta give you that one, boss. Now, about next year's team, I think--
MATURI: Maybe this will help you get a clearer fix on my thinking, Dan. If you were a breakfast cereal, you can just forget about being something tasty like Cookie Crisp or Count Chocula. You'd be All-Bran. You know All-Bran, Dan? It gets mushy and tasteless before I'm even done pouring the milk. I hate that. Don't you hate that, Dan?
MONSON: Man. Gotta tell you, this is really coming through crystal-clear. It is. And that's important because as we build toward next season we'll need to--
MATURI: Dan, if you were one of the Village People....
The 2007 Gophers: can they steal a page from 2005?
Maturi's creative endorsement of his head coach has added still another challenge to what is already intrinsically one of the three or four toughest coaching gigs in the Big Ten. Add to that the fact that graduation and attrition have subtracted no less than 50 points a game from a team that went 5-11 in the Big Ten last year and you're looking at a daunting situation for 2007, to say the least.
Then again two years ago at this time things looked equally grim. Minnesota was being picked for the Big Ten cellar. The team had lost Kris Humphries to the NBA and Adam Boone was out for the year with an injury. No one expected anything from the Gophers that year. And yet that team, led by newly-arrived transfer Vincent Grier, went to the NCAA tournament on the strength of one of the best defenses in the nation. Will that history repeat itself this year?
Monson thinks maybe it can. In fact, he says his 2005 team started the preseason with even "less" on hand than this year's team.
Me, I'm not so sure. We know now what we should have known then about that 2005 team: it had a seven-footer in the post (Jeff Hagen) and a swarm of energetic perimeter defenders (Grier, Rico Tucker, Aaron Robinson, et. al.). This year's team definitely doesn't have a seven-footer--but can they match the defensive intensity of the 2005 Gophers?
It will be very difficult to do so for the simple reason that the seven-footer in question appears to have catalyzed that team's perimeter D. Last year in Hagen's absence Minnesota's interior defense actually improved slightly but opponents nevertheless shot much better on their threes and gave away many fewer turnovers. Bottom line: you can go a long time without seeing a defense as good as the one the Gophers had in 2005. And Monson may have to go at least another year without seeing its like again.
As for the offense, no one can say what we'll see this year, least of all Monson. What we do know is that for two years Minnesota has struggled mightily to put the ball in the basket. Assuming that there is no inherently dominant big man in Minneapolis this season, the emergence of one or two reliably dangerous perimeter shooters (Lawrence McKenzie? Jamal Abu-Shamala?) would be a big help in thinning opposing defenses and opening up the post.
Formally Spencered
Give the man his due: Spencer Tollackson's a surprisingly efficient scorer. But after that the numbers turn meh: he's the most anemic rebounder in the league among returning big men (and particularly nonexistent on the defensive boards) and he never goes to the line. (Good thing! He's a 54.3 percent FT shooter.) Numbers like these can change for the better, of course. Monson hopes they do.
Lawrence of Academia
Oklahoma transfer Lawrence McKenzie has returned to his native Minneapolis and is getting a fair amount of preseason pub. And why not? McKenzie made 43.5 percent of his threes coming off the bench for Kelvin Sampson in Norman in 2005.
Impressive, no? Absolutely. Just remember, though, that shooting threes was all McKenzie did at OU--roughly 71 percent of his shots were threes (about like Mike Walker of Penn State last year). There's nothing wrong with being a three-point specialist, of course. But the three-point specialist usually needs help on offense, either in the form of a big man or other perimeter threats. Otherwise a three-point shooter put in the position of having to carry an offense single-handedly can quickly become a not-so-good three-point shooter. (What hoops analysts in white lab coats term "pulling a GMac.")
McKenzie also appears to have been something of a foul-magnet in his Big XII life. Keep an eye on this.
A riddle wrapped in an enigma cloaked in a Gopher jersey
For someone listed at 6-9, Dan Coleman has a strikingly low 2FG pct.: just 42.7. Otherwise Coleman barely hits the box score--on either side of the ball.
Rudy comes to the Twin Cities
Jamal Abu-Shamala started the year as a walk-on last season but was put on scholarship when it became clear the young man possessed something that's been in short supply in Williams Arena of late: an outside shot. Abu-Shamala hit 47.5 percent of his threes last year but only attempted 59 of them. Agenda for this year: more threes and more of everything else, too, particularly D.
Spielzehn mit die Gophers?
Redshirt freshman and dual-American/Austrian citizen Kevin Payton is reported to be the team's best athlete and could see time at point-guard, shooting guard, or even small forward.
Etc.
Limar Wilson: "the fastest, quickest guy I've ever played with," according to Tollackson.
Bryce Webster: his "6-foot-9, 240-pound body gives him an edge over most players coming out of high school," according to the St. Paul Pioneer Press. More Webster mania here.
In the Gophers first exhibition game last week, freshman Lawrence Westbrook scored 21 points against Bemidji State.
Jonathan Williams blocks shots. If he can stay out of foul trouble, this skill would come in handy this year in Minneapolis.
Engen Nurumbi: "a work in progress," according to Monson.
Ryan Saunders, son of Pistons coach Flip Saunders, is a Gopher co-captain along with McKenzie.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan State beat Brown 45-34 in East Lansing last night in "lethargic" opening-round action in the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." The Bears held the pace to just 51 possessions, recorded a mere eight turnovers, and shot just four free throws--meaning I don't care what it says on their jerseys, this team's from Princeton, if you get my drift. BONUS very sophisticated analysis! Turning the ball over 18 times, as did the Spartans last night, in a game with just 51 possessions is really bad. Maurice Joseph led MSU with 12 points. Marquise Gray got the start but Drew Naymick got the minutes....Tom Izzo did a pretty good Shecky Greene in his postgame remarks: "Before everyone panics, let's look at the positives....There were none." Lansing State Journal columnist Todd Schulz says Drew Neitzel has to play better....The Spartans will play Youngstown State tonight in East Lansing for the right to play in the semifinals next week in Madison Square Garden. (Box score.)
Winona State beat Minnesota 69-64 last night in an exhibition game in Minneapolis. The Gophers were notably weak on the defensive glass, giving the Warriors 16 offensive boards on 36 misses. "We've got to understand that we're 0-0, and we've got an opportunity to learn from [the loss] and move on," Dan Monson said afterward. Dan Coleman led Minnesota in minutes, shots, and points (20). Lawrence McKenzie attempted 10 threes and made three. Winona State is the defending Division II national champion and, with a prior victory over Drake, has now beaten two D-I teams this exhibition season. (Box score (pdf).)
Wisconsin beat Carroll College 81-61 in an exhibition game in Madison last night. Michael Flowers pulled down 13 boards, 12 of them defensive, in 32 minutes. Alando Tucker attempted five threes and made none. (Box score (pdf).)
Illinois beat Southern Illinois-Edwardsville 76-57 last night in an exhibition game in Champaign. Warren Carter led the Illini in shots and points (17). Bruce Weber was pleased with his team's effort: "They have really played their butts off." (Box score.)
Purdue beat Wisconsin-Platteville 78-46 in an exhibition game in West Lafayette last night. Look in the dictionary under "scoring efficiency" and behold the picture of Carl Landry, who led all scorers with 26 points and needed only 14 shots to do so. David Teague added eight boards for the Boilers. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:20 AM
Wednesday, November 08, 2006
Tangled up in Drew at Michigan State
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the suddenly enigmatic band of who-dats from East Lansing, proud members of the Big Ten since 1949.
Last year
22-12 overall, 8-8 in conference. Lost in NCAA first round to George Mason, 75-65.
Back
Drew Neitzel (8.3 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 3.8 reb. pct., 10.2 assists per 100 possessions, 3.6 TOs per 100 possessions)
Marquise Gray (3.0 PPG)
Goran Suton (3.0 PPG)
Travis Walton (1.8 PPG)
Maurice Joseph (0.7 PPG)
New
Raymar Morgan (6-7 F, Canton, OH)
Drew Naymick (6-10 C, medical redshirt--1.5 PPG as sophomore in 2004-05)
Isaiah Dahlman (6-6 G, Braham, MN)
Tom Herzog (7-0 C, Flint)
Limbo
Matt Trannon (4.6 PPG, 1.13 PPWS, 11.9 reb. pct., 3.7 A/100 poss., 2.0 TO/100 poss.) Trannon has eligibility; whether he will focus solely on his football aspirations or choose to play basketball remains to be seen.
Gone
Mo Ager (19.3 PPG, 1.15 PPWS, 7.3 reb. pct., 4.3 A/100 poss., 4.5 TO/100 poss.)
Paul Davis (17.5 PPG, 1.28 PPWS, 18.3 reb. pct., 3.2 A/100 poss., 4.8 TO/100 poss.)
Shannon Brown (17.2 PPG, 1.17 PPWS, 7.8 reb. pct., 4.7 A/100 poss., 4.3 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Green indeed."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
We don’t know what we’ll see with the Spartans this year, of course. Youth raises too many questions. (Actual headline: "Izzo relishes opportunities he'll get to teach.") And ignore articles talking about how a more vocal Drew Neitzel is going to make this "his team" and score more. He will score more--likely a good deal more--because he’ll get many more shots. But Tom Izzo knows he won’t go very far solely on the scoring prowess of a single player.
So just remember this when speaking of Michigan State:
Last year was odd. There was never really a moment to dwell on just how odd--you lose a game in the tournament and you go home. But think about what we saw in 2006....
The Spartans, blessed though they were with three of the ensuing NBA draft’s first 34 picks (Shannon Brown, Mo Ager, and Paul Davis), were in effect the only team in the Big Ten that was significantly worse on both sides of the ball versus 2005. Illinois, of course, was clearly but a shadow of their 2005 selves—but their defense last season was only a hair worse than the year before. And Purdue, while also taking a step back on both sides of the ball, had the equivalent of a note from their parents: they lost their entire projected starting five to injuries and suspensions. Michigan State was thus unique last year: despite having a (relatively) healthy roster, they suffered a pronounced decline on both offense and defense.
So what the heck happened? Were Alan Anderson, Kelvin Torbert, and Chris Hill more vital than we knew?
There's depth. Then there's Izzo depth.
One of the more curious aspects of last year was hearing Izzo repeatedly cite what he termed a lack of depth as a reason for his team's unexpected struggles--this on a team with multiple NBA draft picks. Izzo's laments must have sounded strange at the time in places like Evanston and (especially) West Lafayette.
But, in a way, the numbers do indeed bear Izzo out--there was a big difference between how the coach was able to deploy his talent from year to year....
Percentage of minutes played, 2005-06 (all games)
1. Shannon Brown (86.0)
2. Mo Ager (84.2)
3. Drew Neitzel (80.5)
4. Paul Davis (73.2)
5. Travis Walton (45.7)
6. Matt Trannon (35.2)
7. Goran Suton (32.9)
Way back in 2005, on the other hand, the numbers looked like this for Izzo's top seven:
Percentage of minutes played, 2004-05 (all games)
1. Alan Anderson (65.7)
2. Mo Ager (64.9)
3. Paul Davis (64.5)
4. Shannon Brown (62.1)
5. Chris Hill (59.6)
6. Kelvin Torbert (55.8)
7. Drew Neitzel (40.5)
Let's define "Izzo depth" as seven players each getting between about 40 and 70 percent of the minutes. As seen here, the 2005 team had Izzo depth. The 2006 team--while featuring three demonstrably more talented players than any member of the 2005 team--did not. The first went to the Final Four. The second lost in the first round. And there you have a neat little parable on talent vs. team. (Note to high school coaches everywhere: feel free to use this. And tell the kids to read up on their Big Ten Wonk.)
When Izzo has seven or eight players he trusts--whether by virtue of their experience or talent--he can both demand human-wave effort (including and especially on the boards) and parcel out minutes in a way to make said effort continuous and overwhelming to the opponent. (This is a particular stylistic preference of Izzo's, mind you, not an immutable law of hoops. Illinois in 2005, to cite but one example, went 37-2 with a minutes distribution that looked a lot like MSU's in 2006.) And that, of course, suggests some hopeful possibilities for this season, even with a relative lack of experience. But first the reality....
The 2007 Spartans: likely not pretty, but possibly effective
Barring only a Florida-style run of precociously hot shooting by hitherto who-dat youngsters, MSU's offense will not be as good as last year's. Neitzel is apparently going to get a good deal of minutes functioning as a 2-guard, running off screens and launching threes. Which is fine--he's a 40 percent three-point shooter--but, in line with the notion of Izzo-depth advanced above, it will be essential that Izzo find other scoring options. First, Neitzel simply can't do it all alone when he's on the floor. (No one can. Ask Carl Landry about 2005 sometime.) And, second, there will be times when Neitzel's off the floor--ideally about 30 percent of the time. So watch along with me for these other scoring options to emerge. In the end, State's offensive efficiency (likely burdened with a healthy share of turnovers) will be determined by these non-Neitzels.
As for the D, your guess is as good as mine but if this year's Spartans achieve Izzo-depth then there should be fewer points allowed per possession than last year, thanks to fresh legs and a consistent level of effort on the defensive end. Michigan State's shtick the past couple years has been to rely on supremacy on the defensive glass. Judging from performance to date, Marquise Gray would appear to be far and away Izzo's best defensive rebounder. If he gets some help from Goran Suton and Drew Naymick, an over/under of one point per possession for conference opponents would seem reasonable. As with Indiana, then, defense will be vital for Michigan State this season. Izzo and the rest of the coaching staff do not suffer from DAD, trust me.
Forecast: lots of misses
Drew Neitzel might want to give Dee Brown a call. Brown can tell him in graphic detail what happens to one's scoring efficiency when you lose multiple teammates to the NBA and defenses suddenly converge on you. Indeed, the potential exists here for some pretty ugly numbers. Neitzel's PPWS last year was a vanilla 1.08 (almost exactly the Big Ten average)--and that was with three NBA draft picks on the floor with him. Meaning Neitzel could well lead the Big Ten in scoring this year but, like Alando Tucker last year, it will take something on the order of a Redickulous 500 shots from the field to make this happen.
BONUS pro bono scouting note for ten other teams! Make Neitzel put the ball on the floor but don't double him. His assist rate is astounding but his 2FG pct. is horrific.
The Graying of East Lansing
Marquise Gray arrived at MSU as a highly touted recruit two years ago, redshirted in 2005, and struggled with injuries in 2006. Now he says he's ready. In limited action last season Gray gave hints of being outstanding on the boards, promising offensively, and catastrophic from the line.
First in line for Izzo's football-style rebounding drills
Goran Suton did not get many boards last year, posting a mere 11.9 rebound percentage. (By comparison, the much shorter and much busier-on-offense Geary Claxton put up a 13.1 rebound pct. last year. The area around 12 on this particular stat's an interesting realm, usually populated by underachieving bigs and overachieving little guys.) I fully expect that number to improve this season, now that Suton has more Izzo time under his belt. And, on the plus side, Suton already possesses a jump shot and takes prodigiously good care of the ball. Both traits may place him among an important minority in East Lansing this year.
The non-Neitzel Neitzel
Travis Walton turned the ball over seven times in 24 minutes the other night in an exhibition against Northern Michigan. If I thought exhibitions were indicative of real life, that would give me pause. But I don't, so I can say that Walton last year showed that he's got a good handle. With Neitzel looking to function as more of a 2, ball-handling minutes are available.
"Yes, Coach, now that you mention it, I can see that I do suck!"
Sophomore guard Maurice Joseph on offseason talks with Izzo concerning Joseph's attitude: "I didn't feel that way at first, but when he brought it to light, I found it was a problem."
Etc.
Raymar Morgan's getting the raves, having come back from a sprained right shoulder. Marquise Gray says Morgan has "Shannon Brown strength with Mo Ager hang time." Izzo says Morgan will be "a 30-minute-a-game guy."
Drew Naymick actually started the first seven games last year and then redshirted after suffering an injured shoulder.
Idong Ibok: "I want us to win the Big Ten championship this year [and] hopefully get to a Final Four." Congenital optimist Idong Ibok, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan State opens the regular season tonight against Brown in East Lansing as host of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." Marquise Gray says of this season: "We're gonna surprise a lot of people."
Purdue plays Wisconsin-Platteville tonight in an exhibition game in West Lafayette. Profile of Boilermaker guard Tarrance Crump here.
Illinois plays Division II Southern Illinois-Edwardsville in an exhibition game tonight in Champaign and Bruce Weber says Brian Randle won't play. Randle is recovering from a strained groin.
Michigan coach Tommy Amaker says Dion Harris knows "that he's going to play both [point guard and shooting guard]....We've always seen him as a guard. He's played a lot off the ball. He's been one of those players, an old-school throwback where he just plays the backcourt."...Profile of Lester Abram here. (Same link: Ron Coleman "specializes in rebounding"? Hauling in just 8.1 percent of the available boards while he was on the floor last season, Coleman ranked 36th in the Big Ten last year in his specialty. Bold epistemological innovators of the Detroit News, Wonk salutes you!)
Profile of Wisconsin freshman and potential redshirt J.P. Gavinski here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Big Ten Wonk: where the errors are at the top
Yesterday's Michigan preview perhaps set a new record for fewest words before an error. The post's very first sentence yesterday read as follows:
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto defenseless and turnover-prone young men from Ann Arbor, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896.
The readers respond!
Hey, Wonk,
Love the blog. I thought I'd point out that Michigan has not been a proud member of the Big Ten since 1896. In fact Michigan left the Big Ten in protest in 1907 and rejoined in 1916.
James J.
Egad! James is correct! (Cursory reference to Michigan's nine-year Babylonian captivity here.)
Thanks for the gratis proofreading, James!
¶ 6:23 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the suddenly enigmatic band of who-dats from East Lansing, proud members of the Big Ten since 1949.
Last year
22-12 overall, 8-8 in conference. Lost in NCAA first round to George Mason, 75-65.
Back
Drew Neitzel (8.3 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 3.8 reb. pct., 10.2 assists per 100 possessions, 3.6 TOs per 100 possessions)
Marquise Gray (3.0 PPG)
Goran Suton (3.0 PPG)
Travis Walton (1.8 PPG)
Maurice Joseph (0.7 PPG)
New
Raymar Morgan (6-7 F, Canton, OH)
Drew Naymick (6-10 C, medical redshirt--1.5 PPG as sophomore in 2004-05)
Isaiah Dahlman (6-6 G, Braham, MN)
Tom Herzog (7-0 C, Flint)
Limbo
Matt Trannon (4.6 PPG, 1.13 PPWS, 11.9 reb. pct., 3.7 A/100 poss., 2.0 TO/100 poss.) Trannon has eligibility; whether he will focus solely on his football aspirations or choose to play basketball remains to be seen.
Gone
Mo Ager (19.3 PPG, 1.15 PPWS, 7.3 reb. pct., 4.3 A/100 poss., 4.5 TO/100 poss.)
Paul Davis (17.5 PPG, 1.28 PPWS, 18.3 reb. pct., 3.2 A/100 poss., 4.8 TO/100 poss.)
Shannon Brown (17.2 PPG, 1.17 PPWS, 7.8 reb. pct., 4.7 A/100 poss., 4.3 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Green indeed."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
We don’t know what we’ll see with the Spartans this year, of course. Youth raises too many questions. (Actual headline: "Izzo relishes opportunities he'll get to teach.") And ignore articles talking about how a more vocal Drew Neitzel is going to make this "his team" and score more. He will score more--likely a good deal more--because he’ll get many more shots. But Tom Izzo knows he won’t go very far solely on the scoring prowess of a single player.
So just remember this when speaking of Michigan State:
Last year was odd. There was never really a moment to dwell on just how odd--you lose a game in the tournament and you go home. But think about what we saw in 2006....
The Spartans, blessed though they were with three of the ensuing NBA draft’s first 34 picks (Shannon Brown, Mo Ager, and Paul Davis), were in effect the only team in the Big Ten that was significantly worse on both sides of the ball versus 2005. Illinois, of course, was clearly but a shadow of their 2005 selves—but their defense last season was only a hair worse than the year before. And Purdue, while also taking a step back on both sides of the ball, had the equivalent of a note from their parents: they lost their entire projected starting five to injuries and suspensions. Michigan State was thus unique last year: despite having a (relatively) healthy roster, they suffered a pronounced decline on both offense and defense.
So what the heck happened? Were Alan Anderson, Kelvin Torbert, and Chris Hill more vital than we knew?
There's depth. Then there's Izzo depth.
One of the more curious aspects of last year was hearing Izzo repeatedly cite what he termed a lack of depth as a reason for his team's unexpected struggles--this on a team with multiple NBA draft picks. Izzo's laments must have sounded strange at the time in places like Evanston and (especially) West Lafayette.
But, in a way, the numbers do indeed bear Izzo out--there was a big difference between how the coach was able to deploy his talent from year to year....
Percentage of minutes played, 2005-06 (all games)
1. Shannon Brown (86.0)
2. Mo Ager (84.2)
3. Drew Neitzel (80.5)
4. Paul Davis (73.2)
5. Travis Walton (45.7)
6. Matt Trannon (35.2)
7. Goran Suton (32.9)
Way back in 2005, on the other hand, the numbers looked like this for Izzo's top seven:
Percentage of minutes played, 2004-05 (all games)
1. Alan Anderson (65.7)
2. Mo Ager (64.9)
3. Paul Davis (64.5)
4. Shannon Brown (62.1)
5. Chris Hill (59.6)
6. Kelvin Torbert (55.8)
7. Drew Neitzel (40.5)
Let's define "Izzo depth" as seven players each getting between about 40 and 70 percent of the minutes. As seen here, the 2005 team had Izzo depth. The 2006 team--while featuring three demonstrably more talented players than any member of the 2005 team--did not. The first went to the Final Four. The second lost in the first round. And there you have a neat little parable on talent vs. team. (Note to high school coaches everywhere: feel free to use this. And tell the kids to read up on their Big Ten Wonk.)
When Izzo has seven or eight players he trusts--whether by virtue of their experience or talent--he can both demand human-wave effort (including and especially on the boards) and parcel out minutes in a way to make said effort continuous and overwhelming to the opponent. (This is a particular stylistic preference of Izzo's, mind you, not an immutable law of hoops. Illinois in 2005, to cite but one example, went 37-2 with a minutes distribution that looked a lot like MSU's in 2006.) And that, of course, suggests some hopeful possibilities for this season, even with a relative lack of experience. But first the reality....
The 2007 Spartans: likely not pretty, but possibly effective
Barring only a Florida-style run of precociously hot shooting by hitherto who-dat youngsters, MSU's offense will not be as good as last year's. Neitzel is apparently going to get a good deal of minutes functioning as a 2-guard, running off screens and launching threes. Which is fine--he's a 40 percent three-point shooter--but, in line with the notion of Izzo-depth advanced above, it will be essential that Izzo find other scoring options. First, Neitzel simply can't do it all alone when he's on the floor. (No one can. Ask Carl Landry about 2005 sometime.) And, second, there will be times when Neitzel's off the floor--ideally about 30 percent of the time. So watch along with me for these other scoring options to emerge. In the end, State's offensive efficiency (likely burdened with a healthy share of turnovers) will be determined by these non-Neitzels.
As for the D, your guess is as good as mine but if this year's Spartans achieve Izzo-depth then there should be fewer points allowed per possession than last year, thanks to fresh legs and a consistent level of effort on the defensive end. Michigan State's shtick the past couple years has been to rely on supremacy on the defensive glass. Judging from performance to date, Marquise Gray would appear to be far and away Izzo's best defensive rebounder. If he gets some help from Goran Suton and Drew Naymick, an over/under of one point per possession for conference opponents would seem reasonable. As with Indiana, then, defense will be vital for Michigan State this season. Izzo and the rest of the coaching staff do not suffer from DAD, trust me.
Forecast: lots of misses
Drew Neitzel might want to give Dee Brown a call. Brown can tell him in graphic detail what happens to one's scoring efficiency when you lose multiple teammates to the NBA and defenses suddenly converge on you. Indeed, the potential exists here for some pretty ugly numbers. Neitzel's PPWS last year was a vanilla 1.08 (almost exactly the Big Ten average)--and that was with three NBA draft picks on the floor with him. Meaning Neitzel could well lead the Big Ten in scoring this year but, like Alando Tucker last year, it will take something on the order of a Redickulous 500 shots from the field to make this happen.
BONUS pro bono scouting note for ten other teams! Make Neitzel put the ball on the floor but don't double him. His assist rate is astounding but his 2FG pct. is horrific.
The Graying of East Lansing
Marquise Gray arrived at MSU as a highly touted recruit two years ago, redshirted in 2005, and struggled with injuries in 2006. Now he says he's ready. In limited action last season Gray gave hints of being outstanding on the boards, promising offensively, and catastrophic from the line.
First in line for Izzo's football-style rebounding drills
Goran Suton did not get many boards last year, posting a mere 11.9 rebound percentage. (By comparison, the much shorter and much busier-on-offense Geary Claxton put up a 13.1 rebound pct. last year. The area around 12 on this particular stat's an interesting realm, usually populated by underachieving bigs and overachieving little guys.) I fully expect that number to improve this season, now that Suton has more Izzo time under his belt. And, on the plus side, Suton already possesses a jump shot and takes prodigiously good care of the ball. Both traits may place him among an important minority in East Lansing this year.
The non-Neitzel Neitzel
Travis Walton turned the ball over seven times in 24 minutes the other night in an exhibition against Northern Michigan. If I thought exhibitions were indicative of real life, that would give me pause. But I don't, so I can say that Walton last year showed that he's got a good handle. With Neitzel looking to function as more of a 2, ball-handling minutes are available.
"Yes, Coach, now that you mention it, I can see that I do suck!"
Sophomore guard Maurice Joseph on offseason talks with Izzo concerning Joseph's attitude: "I didn't feel that way at first, but when he brought it to light, I found it was a problem."
Etc.
Raymar Morgan's getting the raves, having come back from a sprained right shoulder. Marquise Gray says Morgan has "Shannon Brown strength with Mo Ager hang time." Izzo says Morgan will be "a 30-minute-a-game guy."
Drew Naymick actually started the first seven games last year and then redshirted after suffering an injured shoulder.
Idong Ibok: "I want us to win the Big Ten championship this year [and] hopefully get to a Final Four." Congenital optimist Idong Ibok, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Michigan State opens the regular season tonight against Brown in East Lansing as host of the loquaciously titled "2K Sports College Hoops Classic benefiting Coaches Vs. Cancer." Marquise Gray says of this season: "We're gonna surprise a lot of people."
Purdue plays Wisconsin-Platteville tonight in an exhibition game in West Lafayette. Profile of Boilermaker guard Tarrance Crump here.
Illinois plays Division II Southern Illinois-Edwardsville in an exhibition game tonight in Champaign and Bruce Weber says Brian Randle won't play. Randle is recovering from a strained groin.
Michigan coach Tommy Amaker says Dion Harris knows "that he's going to play both [point guard and shooting guard]....We've always seen him as a guard. He's played a lot off the ball. He's been one of those players, an old-school throwback where he just plays the backcourt."...Profile of Lester Abram here. (Same link: Ron Coleman "specializes in rebounding"? Hauling in just 8.1 percent of the available boards while he was on the floor last season, Coleman ranked 36th in the Big Ten last year in his specialty. Bold epistemological innovators of the Detroit News, Wonk salutes you!)
Profile of Wisconsin freshman and potential redshirt J.P. Gavinski here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Big Ten Wonk: where the errors are at the top
Yesterday's Michigan preview perhaps set a new record for fewest words before an error. The post's very first sentence yesterday read as follows:
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto defenseless and turnover-prone young men from Ann Arbor, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896.
The readers respond!
Hey, Wonk,
Love the blog. I thought I'd point out that Michigan has not been a proud member of the Big Ten since 1896. In fact Michigan left the Big Ten in protest in 1907 and rejoined in 1916.
James J.
Egad! James is correct! (Cursory reference to Michigan's nine-year Babylonian captivity here.)
Thanks for the gratis proofreading, James!
¶ 6:23 AM
Tuesday, November 07, 2006
Is Michigan underrated?
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto defenseless and turnover-prone young men from Ann Arbor, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
22-11 overall, 8-8 in conference. Lost to South Carolina in title game of the NIT, 76-64.
Back
Dion Harris (11.1 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 5.9 reb. pct., 5.4 assists per 100 possessions, 3.1 TOs per 100 possessions)
Courtney Sims (10.9 PPG, 1.31 PPWS, 15.9 reb. pct., 2.0 a/100 poss., 6.2 TO/100 poss.)
Lester Abram (10.0 PPG, 1.29 PPWS, 8.1 reb. pct., 2.4 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/poss.)
Ron Coleman (5.8 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 8.1 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss., 2.7 TO/100 poss.)
Brent Petway (5.5 PPG, 1.19 PPWS, 14.4 reb. pct., 1.5 a/100 poss., 1.4 TO/100 poss.)
Jerret Smith (2.4 PPG)
Jevohn Shepherd (1.8 PPG)
New
DeShawn Sims (6-8 F, Detroit)
K'Len Morris (6-4 G, Grand Blanc, MI)
Ekpe Udoh (6-10 F, Edmond, OK)
Gone
Daniel Horton (17.6 PPG, 1.19 PPWS, 4.8 reb. pct., 9.3 a/100 poss., 6.2 TO/100 poss.)
Chris Hunter (8.1 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 13.2 reb. pct., 1.2 a/100 poss., 4.9 TO/100 poss.)
Graham Brown (5.1 PPG, 1.24 PPWS, 18.8 reb. pct., 2.8 a/100poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Consistently inconsistent since 1998."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Michigan has by far the lowest expectation-to-talent ratio in the Big Ten this preseason. They've been picked by the media to finish sixth in the conference and yet look at what they have:
--A 6-11 player who scores with extreme efficiency, blocks shots, and is the second-best returning rebounder in the conference
--A seasoned wing whose shots simply go in, whether from in close or outside the arc
--An experienced combo guard listed at 6-3 and 225 who hit 39 percent of his threes last year
Why doesn't anyone expect this team to do anything?
Because, well, there's a history here. Mindful of that history, Michigan comes into the season saying this year is different. They do that every year in Ann Arbor. But then it turns out every year is the same as the year before. "I can't say why it hasn't worked," admits Brent Petway this year.
Fear not, Brent! I'm here to help. Here is why it hasn't worked....
(insert throat-clearing noise here)
Defense.
Join me, won't you, as we journey back in time (cue the harp, screen gets wavy)....
Three games that will live in infamy
Last February 2, Michigan stood at 6-2 in the Big Ten, coming off a road win at Penn State and back-to-back home wins over ranked opponents (Michigan State and Wisconsin). They were scoring 1.09 points per possession in conference play and holding their opponents to just 1.01--this despite the fact that Lester Abram had played in only three of their eight conference games before being sidelined indefinitely.
Then the roof fell in. The Wolverines traveled to Iowa City where the previously poor-shooting Iowa Hawkeyes went berserk and posted the best day of shooting recorded by any Big Ten team in any game last season. Final: Iowa 94, Michigan 66. Sure, a win at Carver-Hawkeye would have been a tall task. (Though not so very tall: the Wolverines won there in 2005.) But the magnitude of the disaster foreshadowed bad things to come....
Next stop: Crisler Arena, where Michigan gave up 94 points to Ohio State in a game that was briskly played (70 possessions) but not a track meet by any means. The Buckeyes made 15 of 24 threes and won by nine on an evening when the Wolverines played without Jerret Smith and saw Dion Harris and Brent Petway both leave the floor in the second half due to injuries.
And then things got even worse. The Wolverines went to West Lafayette without Abram, Harris, and Smith, and were thoroughly outplayed by Purdue, a team that took the floor for this game and for the balance of the year without its entire projected starting five. Final: Purdue 84, Michigan 70.
Over the course of these three games, Michigan opponents made no less than 59.6 percent of their threes and posted an effective FG pct. of 73.2. (Comparison: the worst FG defense in the Big Ten last year belonged to Penn State, who allowed opponents to post a 56.9 eFG pct.)
This three-game defensive collapse cost Michigan its tournament bid. Yes, they played all three games without Abram--but they'd already been doing that for most of the conference season. What's more, their offense over this same stretch was fine. (Indeed, against Ohio State the Wolverines scored a stellar 1.22 points per possession, led by a 26-12 dub-dub from Courtney Sims.)
And, yes, Michigan fumbled away other games after this three-game stretch--most notably the home finale against Indiana, and, most notoriously, the loss in the Big Ten tournament to Minnesota. But had the Wolverines merely played their run-of-the-mill below-average D against Ohio State at home and Purdue on the road, they could have lost both the later games and still heard their name called on Selection Sunday.
Truly, Mr. Petway, defense is "why it hasn't worked." Defense.
So then what about this year's D?
The bad news is that the Wolverines posted their woeful defensive numbers in 2006 even though Graham Brown was the single best defensive rebounder in the conference, one who would personally clean up 24.5 percent of the opponent's misses while he was on the floor. Now Brown is gone and Michigan figures to get fewer defensive boards. (In Brown and Sims, the Wolverines had two of the best seven defensive rebounders in the Big Ten--and yet as a team their defensive rebounding was below-average. No one in a Michigan uniform besides Brown and Sims hit the defensive glass last year.)
But fewer defensive boards can be offset by creating more misses and there is ample room for improvement in Michigan's field goal defense. So expect continued mediocrity in defensive rebounding but nevertheless a slightly improved Wolverine D this year. "Improvement" in this case meaning a giddy ascent from "well below-average" all the way to "average or slightly below." Why the (weak) optimism? Because if opponents hit 39.3 percent of their threes against Michigan two years in a row, it's officially time to order up an exorcism in Crisler.
Abram, Sims (two of them), Harris--this should be a good offense, right?
Speaking of good news/bad news, Daniel Horton's gone. Last year Horton was both very efficient at translating shots into points (yes, that surprised me) and very generous in giving turnovers to the opponent (no, that didn't surprise me).
I think the Michigan offense this year will be a lot like Horton last year: though they'll continue to turn the ball over, they'll also continue to shoot well and so their offense will be good. Not great, like they could be in theory if they held on to the ball, but good. It was good last year but no one could tell--good offense disappears when your defense is really bad.
So, like last year, defense will define this team. Eschew DAD and keep your eye on the Wolverine D.
BONUS note on the 2007 Michigan Wolverines: unwitting captives of extreme evaluative Manichaeism!
The thing to keep in mind about Michigan is that, after eight years on the outside looking in, the goal of an NCAA berth--just the invite itself--has become all-consuming and indeed totemic to a degree that is unequalled anywhere in the Big Ten. It's true, of course, that Northwestern's never been to the tournament. But it's also true that if this year's young Wildcats went 7-9 in conference and got an NIT bid, everyone concerned would be happy. Such is not the case, to say the least, in Ann Arbor. The rest of the Big Ten gets letter grades but Tommy Amaker over the past couple years has been graded strictly pass/fail.
Now, as it happens, I would rate the Wolverines' chances at getting that berth this year as "fair" for the not very sophisticated reason that I think they'll be about as good this year as they were last year, when they missed a bid by a hair. And in that sense Michigan is indeed being underrated this year. But the larger point is the dichotomy itself: the Wolverines will likely be about the same as last year but they'll be spoken of in one of two wildly divergent ways. If they get into the tournament: they're back, stigma's gone, blue-chip recruits are interested, watch out Izzo, 'doze Crisler now. If they don't: a program in limbo, no discipline, no character, bring in the hot seat. And whatever the outcome in March, it will be written about in April as though it were all foreordained in November.
It's not.
Hot shooting and MOTs
Dion Harris hit a fairly robust 39 percent of his threes last year and will thus give opposing defenses another thing to worry about on top of Abram and Sims. Make no mistake, the Wolverines this season have multiple offensive threats (MOTs!), perhaps the best such grouping in the conference. But, hey, I'm here to give out helpful information, so....
BONUS pro bono scouting note for opposing D's! Make Harris put the ball on the floor and even feel free to double-team him. His 2FG pct. is really bad and he's not much of a threat to record an assist.
Nooooooo! We want the old Courtney Sims!
Today marks the first time in this blog's young life when I am unable to do a good portion of my Michigan-preview blog work simply by pointing to entertaining words spoken by Courtney Sims. For you see, in October 2004 and then again in October 2005, Sims forecast that his team would be a threat to win the national championship. (Courtney, if this basketball thing doesn't work out professionally, I would not recommend meteorology as a fall-back.)
This year, in marked contrast, Sims is trying to stay humble. And, what's this, he's also slimmed down? (Yes, everyone's happy about it--more empirical support for my law of November weight change.) Yikes! Discontinuities abound! Well, we'll just see about that! How's this:
In 2005 and again in 2006, Sims scored very efficiently. In 2005 and again in 2006, Sims turned the ball over very frequently.
Expect both to continue.
Abram still keeps in touch with freshman-year roommate Tom Harmon
Lester Abram has, it seems, been in Ann Arbor since the zoot suit. And yet here he is, back again. So time once again to say: Abram will be healthy this year! He's a really efficient scorer! That helps Amaker!
There's no way of knowing if the first statement is true, of course. We do know that the second and the third are. But offense doesn't figure to be the problem in Ann Arbor. (Thanks in large part, granted, to Abram himself.) Defense does. What does Abram do for the defense?
We don't know. Michigan's with- and without-Abram numbers on defense from last year are miles apart but only because the young man was fortunate enough to miss out on the three-game degringolade recounted above. The epic proportions of the catastrophe were much too large to trace to a single player's absence. Keep an eye on this but also remember the more obvious point: minutes for Abram means other less savory roster options are being denied minutes. And that bodes well for Wolverine fans.
Another Abram? If only....
Ron Coleman is in many ways eerily similar to Lester Abram. Both play wing; both are listed at 6-6, 205, give or take; both take very good care of the ball; both pose little threat to get a rebound; both are no threat whatsoever to record an assist.
So how come Abram gets the ink? Because his shots go in. True, Coleman posted a respectable 36.0 3FG pct. last year (though not as respectable as Abram's 42.5). But his 2FG pct. was a lowly 44.8 (compared to Abram's sterling 57.4). I will not, however, resort to a hack trope and call Coleman "Lesster." So there.
Besides the dunks....
Brent Petway has been recognized by his peers as the scariest dunker in the Big Ten and his tomahawks are indeed get-off-your-couch tasty. But in terms of securing actual wins (the nominal purpose of basketball players), Petway's most critical task is to help Sims on the defensive glass this year--that would be huge for a team with defensive worries. Not that Petway hasn't done so up to now (his numbers there are fine), he just hasn't played up to now, missing the first 11 games of the season last year due to academic ineligibility and cracking the 20-minute barrier just six times in the team's final 22 games.
Etc.
Big things are expected of freshman DeShawn Sims, who arrives in Ann Arbor with the label of "best Michigan recruit since"...well, for a while. (Big photo here. Profile here.)
Amaker says with Horton gone Jerret Smith will split time at point guard this year with Harris.
Freshman Reed Baker has shot threes quite well in the two exhibition games.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Division II Shippensburg beat Penn State 67-61 last night in an exhibition game in State College. The Nittany Lions played this game without two starters, Geary Claxton (broken finger) and David "Mooch" Jackson (twisted ankle). They also played man defense throughout the evening, as opposed to the zone they frequently employed last year. "The game doesn't really count in the win-loss column, but I just think it's embarrassing for us, personally," said Penn State point guard Ben Luber afterward. Shippensburg made 21 of their 34 two-point shots. (Box score (pdf).)
Cross-sport advice flies in East Lansing! Soon-to-be-gone Michigan State football coach John L. Smith says he thinks Spartan two-sport polymath Matt Trannon should play some hoops this season: "If I were advising him, I would probably advise him, 'If you don't get taken in the [football] combine, go ahead and play basketball,' because I think it nothing more than serves as a platform for him to sell himself." For his part Tom Izzo says his good friend and fellow UP native Steve Mariucci might be a good replacement for Smith: "Do I think he can do the job? Yeah, I think he can do the job. I think there are some other guys out there that can do the job. I really do mean that. We've just gotta get the one that fits us best and the one that's excited about being here." (Indefatigable Spartan savant Steve Grinczel, on the other hand, is skeptical that Mooch is a serious candidate. Wait, I'm writing about football. Abort!)...Profile of freshman Raymar Morgan here.
Ohio State coach Thad Matta has challenged his young team to make it to the Final Four this year. Meanwhile at SI.com this morning, Luke Winn looks at a couple scenarios for what the timing of Greg Oden's return from wrist surgery could mean to the Buckeyes' seed in the NCAA tournament.
Iowa coach Steve Alford on his young team: "The strength of our team right now is our backcourt. The frontcourt is still learning. It’s kind of a process that’s got to unfold through maturity."
Wisconsin guard Kammron Taylor is eating better this year....Badger recruiting updates here and here.
Junior-has-matured (JHM) profile of Purdue guard Tarrance Crump here.
Senior-has-matured (SHM) profile of Illinois guard Rich McBride here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
¶ 6:19 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the hitherto defenseless and turnover-prone young men from Ann Arbor, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896....
Last year
22-11 overall, 8-8 in conference. Lost to South Carolina in title game of the NIT, 76-64.
Back
Dion Harris (11.1 PPG, 1.08 PPWS, 5.9 reb. pct., 5.4 assists per 100 possessions, 3.1 TOs per 100 possessions)
Courtney Sims (10.9 PPG, 1.31 PPWS, 15.9 reb. pct., 2.0 a/100 poss., 6.2 TO/100 poss.)
Lester Abram (10.0 PPG, 1.29 PPWS, 8.1 reb. pct., 2.4 a/100 poss., 3.2 TO/poss.)
Ron Coleman (5.8 PPG, 1.02 PPWS, 8.1 reb. pct., 2.3 a/100 poss., 2.7 TO/100 poss.)
Brent Petway (5.5 PPG, 1.19 PPWS, 14.4 reb. pct., 1.5 a/100 poss., 1.4 TO/100 poss.)
Jerret Smith (2.4 PPG)
Jevohn Shepherd (1.8 PPG)
New
DeShawn Sims (6-8 F, Detroit)
K'Len Morris (6-4 G, Grand Blanc, MI)
Ekpe Udoh (6-10 F, Edmond, OK)
Gone
Daniel Horton (17.6 PPG, 1.19 PPWS, 4.8 reb. pct., 9.3 a/100 poss., 6.2 TO/100 poss.)
Chris Hunter (8.1 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 13.2 reb. pct., 1.2 a/100 poss., 4.9 TO/100 poss.)
Graham Brown (5.1 PPG, 1.24 PPWS, 18.8 reb. pct., 2.8 a/100poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Consistently inconsistent since 1998."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Michigan has by far the lowest expectation-to-talent ratio in the Big Ten this preseason. They've been picked by the media to finish sixth in the conference and yet look at what they have:
--A 6-11 player who scores with extreme efficiency, blocks shots, and is the second-best returning rebounder in the conference
--A seasoned wing whose shots simply go in, whether from in close or outside the arc
--An experienced combo guard listed at 6-3 and 225 who hit 39 percent of his threes last year
Why doesn't anyone expect this team to do anything?
Because, well, there's a history here. Mindful of that history, Michigan comes into the season saying this year is different. They do that every year in Ann Arbor. But then it turns out every year is the same as the year before. "I can't say why it hasn't worked," admits Brent Petway this year.
Fear not, Brent! I'm here to help. Here is why it hasn't worked....
(insert throat-clearing noise here)
Defense.
Join me, won't you, as we journey back in time (cue the harp, screen gets wavy)....
Three games that will live in infamy
Last February 2, Michigan stood at 6-2 in the Big Ten, coming off a road win at Penn State and back-to-back home wins over ranked opponents (Michigan State and Wisconsin). They were scoring 1.09 points per possession in conference play and holding their opponents to just 1.01--this despite the fact that Lester Abram had played in only three of their eight conference games before being sidelined indefinitely.
Then the roof fell in. The Wolverines traveled to Iowa City where the previously poor-shooting Iowa Hawkeyes went berserk and posted the best day of shooting recorded by any Big Ten team in any game last season. Final: Iowa 94, Michigan 66. Sure, a win at Carver-Hawkeye would have been a tall task. (Though not so very tall: the Wolverines won there in 2005.) But the magnitude of the disaster foreshadowed bad things to come....
Next stop: Crisler Arena, where Michigan gave up 94 points to Ohio State in a game that was briskly played (70 possessions) but not a track meet by any means. The Buckeyes made 15 of 24 threes and won by nine on an evening when the Wolverines played without Jerret Smith and saw Dion Harris and Brent Petway both leave the floor in the second half due to injuries.
And then things got even worse. The Wolverines went to West Lafayette without Abram, Harris, and Smith, and were thoroughly outplayed by Purdue, a team that took the floor for this game and for the balance of the year without its entire projected starting five. Final: Purdue 84, Michigan 70.
Over the course of these three games, Michigan opponents made no less than 59.6 percent of their threes and posted an effective FG pct. of 73.2. (Comparison: the worst FG defense in the Big Ten last year belonged to Penn State, who allowed opponents to post a 56.9 eFG pct.)
This three-game defensive collapse cost Michigan its tournament bid. Yes, they played all three games without Abram--but they'd already been doing that for most of the conference season. What's more, their offense over this same stretch was fine. (Indeed, against Ohio State the Wolverines scored a stellar 1.22 points per possession, led by a 26-12 dub-dub from Courtney Sims.)
And, yes, Michigan fumbled away other games after this three-game stretch--most notably the home finale against Indiana, and, most notoriously, the loss in the Big Ten tournament to Minnesota. But had the Wolverines merely played their run-of-the-mill below-average D against Ohio State at home and Purdue on the road, they could have lost both the later games and still heard their name called on Selection Sunday.
Truly, Mr. Petway, defense is "why it hasn't worked." Defense.
So then what about this year's D?
The bad news is that the Wolverines posted their woeful defensive numbers in 2006 even though Graham Brown was the single best defensive rebounder in the conference, one who would personally clean up 24.5 percent of the opponent's misses while he was on the floor. Now Brown is gone and Michigan figures to get fewer defensive boards. (In Brown and Sims, the Wolverines had two of the best seven defensive rebounders in the Big Ten--and yet as a team their defensive rebounding was below-average. No one in a Michigan uniform besides Brown and Sims hit the defensive glass last year.)
But fewer defensive boards can be offset by creating more misses and there is ample room for improvement in Michigan's field goal defense. So expect continued mediocrity in defensive rebounding but nevertheless a slightly improved Wolverine D this year. "Improvement" in this case meaning a giddy ascent from "well below-average" all the way to "average or slightly below." Why the (weak) optimism? Because if opponents hit 39.3 percent of their threes against Michigan two years in a row, it's officially time to order up an exorcism in Crisler.
Abram, Sims (two of them), Harris--this should be a good offense, right?
Speaking of good news/bad news, Daniel Horton's gone. Last year Horton was both very efficient at translating shots into points (yes, that surprised me) and very generous in giving turnovers to the opponent (no, that didn't surprise me).
I think the Michigan offense this year will be a lot like Horton last year: though they'll continue to turn the ball over, they'll also continue to shoot well and so their offense will be good. Not great, like they could be in theory if they held on to the ball, but good. It was good last year but no one could tell--good offense disappears when your defense is really bad.
So, like last year, defense will define this team. Eschew DAD and keep your eye on the Wolverine D.
BONUS note on the 2007 Michigan Wolverines: unwitting captives of extreme evaluative Manichaeism!
The thing to keep in mind about Michigan is that, after eight years on the outside looking in, the goal of an NCAA berth--just the invite itself--has become all-consuming and indeed totemic to a degree that is unequalled anywhere in the Big Ten. It's true, of course, that Northwestern's never been to the tournament. But it's also true that if this year's young Wildcats went 7-9 in conference and got an NIT bid, everyone concerned would be happy. Such is not the case, to say the least, in Ann Arbor. The rest of the Big Ten gets letter grades but Tommy Amaker over the past couple years has been graded strictly pass/fail.
Now, as it happens, I would rate the Wolverines' chances at getting that berth this year as "fair" for the not very sophisticated reason that I think they'll be about as good this year as they were last year, when they missed a bid by a hair. And in that sense Michigan is indeed being underrated this year. But the larger point is the dichotomy itself: the Wolverines will likely be about the same as last year but they'll be spoken of in one of two wildly divergent ways. If they get into the tournament: they're back, stigma's gone, blue-chip recruits are interested, watch out Izzo, 'doze Crisler now. If they don't: a program in limbo, no discipline, no character, bring in the hot seat. And whatever the outcome in March, it will be written about in April as though it were all foreordained in November.
It's not.
Hot shooting and MOTs
Dion Harris hit a fairly robust 39 percent of his threes last year and will thus give opposing defenses another thing to worry about on top of Abram and Sims. Make no mistake, the Wolverines this season have multiple offensive threats (MOTs!), perhaps the best such grouping in the conference. But, hey, I'm here to give out helpful information, so....
BONUS pro bono scouting note for opposing D's! Make Harris put the ball on the floor and even feel free to double-team him. His 2FG pct. is really bad and he's not much of a threat to record an assist.
Nooooooo! We want the old Courtney Sims!
Today marks the first time in this blog's young life when I am unable to do a good portion of my Michigan-preview blog work simply by pointing to entertaining words spoken by Courtney Sims. For you see, in October 2004 and then again in October 2005, Sims forecast that his team would be a threat to win the national championship. (Courtney, if this basketball thing doesn't work out professionally, I would not recommend meteorology as a fall-back.)
This year, in marked contrast, Sims is trying to stay humble. And, what's this, he's also slimmed down? (Yes, everyone's happy about it--more empirical support for my law of November weight change.) Yikes! Discontinuities abound! Well, we'll just see about that! How's this:
In 2005 and again in 2006, Sims scored very efficiently. In 2005 and again in 2006, Sims turned the ball over very frequently.
Expect both to continue.
Abram still keeps in touch with freshman-year roommate Tom Harmon
Lester Abram has, it seems, been in Ann Arbor since the zoot suit. And yet here he is, back again. So time once again to say: Abram will be healthy this year! He's a really efficient scorer! That helps Amaker!
There's no way of knowing if the first statement is true, of course. We do know that the second and the third are. But offense doesn't figure to be the problem in Ann Arbor. (Thanks in large part, granted, to Abram himself.) Defense does. What does Abram do for the defense?
We don't know. Michigan's with- and without-Abram numbers on defense from last year are miles apart but only because the young man was fortunate enough to miss out on the three-game degringolade recounted above. The epic proportions of the catastrophe were much too large to trace to a single player's absence. Keep an eye on this but also remember the more obvious point: minutes for Abram means other less savory roster options are being denied minutes. And that bodes well for Wolverine fans.
Another Abram? If only....
Ron Coleman is in many ways eerily similar to Lester Abram. Both play wing; both are listed at 6-6, 205, give or take; both take very good care of the ball; both pose little threat to get a rebound; both are no threat whatsoever to record an assist.
So how come Abram gets the ink? Because his shots go in. True, Coleman posted a respectable 36.0 3FG pct. last year (though not as respectable as Abram's 42.5). But his 2FG pct. was a lowly 44.8 (compared to Abram's sterling 57.4). I will not, however, resort to a hack trope and call Coleman "Lesster." So there.
Besides the dunks....
Brent Petway has been recognized by his peers as the scariest dunker in the Big Ten and his tomahawks are indeed get-off-your-couch tasty. But in terms of securing actual wins (the nominal purpose of basketball players), Petway's most critical task is to help Sims on the defensive glass this year--that would be huge for a team with defensive worries. Not that Petway hasn't done so up to now (his numbers there are fine), he just hasn't played up to now, missing the first 11 games of the season last year due to academic ineligibility and cracking the 20-minute barrier just six times in the team's final 22 games.
Etc.
Big things are expected of freshman DeShawn Sims, who arrives in Ann Arbor with the label of "best Michigan recruit since"...well, for a while. (Big photo here. Profile here.)
Amaker says with Horton gone Jerret Smith will split time at point guard this year with Harris.
Freshman Reed Baker has shot threes quite well in the two exhibition games.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Division II Shippensburg beat Penn State 67-61 last night in an exhibition game in State College. The Nittany Lions played this game without two starters, Geary Claxton (broken finger) and David "Mooch" Jackson (twisted ankle). They also played man defense throughout the evening, as opposed to the zone they frequently employed last year. "The game doesn't really count in the win-loss column, but I just think it's embarrassing for us, personally," said Penn State point guard Ben Luber afterward. Shippensburg made 21 of their 34 two-point shots. (Box score (pdf).)
Cross-sport advice flies in East Lansing! Soon-to-be-gone Michigan State football coach John L. Smith says he thinks Spartan two-sport polymath Matt Trannon should play some hoops this season: "If I were advising him, I would probably advise him, 'If you don't get taken in the [football] combine, go ahead and play basketball,' because I think it nothing more than serves as a platform for him to sell himself." For his part Tom Izzo says his good friend and fellow UP native Steve Mariucci might be a good replacement for Smith: "Do I think he can do the job? Yeah, I think he can do the job. I think there are some other guys out there that can do the job. I really do mean that. We've just gotta get the one that fits us best and the one that's excited about being here." (Indefatigable Spartan savant Steve Grinczel, on the other hand, is skeptical that Mooch is a serious candidate. Wait, I'm writing about football. Abort!)...Profile of freshman Raymar Morgan here.
Ohio State coach Thad Matta has challenged his young team to make it to the Final Four this year. Meanwhile at SI.com this morning, Luke Winn looks at a couple scenarios for what the timing of Greg Oden's return from wrist surgery could mean to the Buckeyes' seed in the NCAA tournament.
Iowa coach Steve Alford on his young team: "The strength of our team right now is our backcourt. The frontcourt is still learning. It’s kind of a process that’s got to unfold through maturity."
Wisconsin guard Kammron Taylor is eating better this year....Badger recruiting updates here and here.
Junior-has-matured (JHM) profile of Purdue guard Tarrance Crump here.
Senior-has-matured (SHM) profile of Illinois guard Rich McBride here.
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
¶ 6:19 AM
Free throw proficiency is the Pluto of the hoops offense solar system
In my Iowa preview this week I said the Hawkeyes' offense last year was below-average across the board. Strictly speaking, that's not true: Iowa in fact led the league in free throw proficiency.
FTM/FGA (2006, conference games only)
1. Iowa (.293)
2. Michigan (.274)
3. Michigan State (.251)
4. Wisconsin (.241)
5. Indiana (.236)
6. Minnesota (.227)
7. Ohio State (.211)
8. Penn State (.203)
9. Illinois (.197)
10. Northwestern (.189)
11. Purdue (.180)
Leading the conference in FT proficiency shows, I think, that Steve Alford had a laudable grasp of his team's strengths and limitations on offense. But I think it might also speak to confusion regarding the relationship between free throws and offense. And, on a notably more arbitrary note, making free throws an avowed objective of your offensive scheme (as opposed to getting free throws as a byproduct) bothers me aesthetically.
FT proficiency is one of hoops analyst Dean Oliver's paradigmatic "four factors," along with FG shooting, rebounding, and turnovers. Previously I've offered a reading that says that "factors" here should be understood in the literal algebraic sense (these are the four factors in the equation used to determine points per possession) and not in a "keys to the game" manner. And in fact Oliver notes that FT proficiency is the least weighty of the four factors.
But FT proficiency isn't merely less important than foundational stats like shooting, rebounding, and turnovers. It's less important than ephemeral stats, too. For example, in "major"-conference games last year there was a weaker statistical correlation between FT proficiency and points per possession than there was between PPP and attempted threes. Not made threes, mind you. Attempts. (Heck, my silly little "effective possessions" stat that I cooked up on my own in the Wonk kitchen is much more strongly correlated to PPP than is FT proficiency. Of course it is--ePoss is a patently derivative stat that piggybacks shamelessly on the self-evident correlation between not turning the ball over and scoring points.) Made free throws are simply not required for a good offense.
Even more important than the fact that FT proficiency doesn't matter, though, is the fact that I just don't like games with lots of free throws. (Let's keep the focus on me.) And in this vein I find myself thinking back to various instances where Alford, in his postgame comments, has to my ears come perilously close to evincing an a priori need for free throw attempts--regardless of the type of game or style of the opponent. Not complaining of a free throw discrepancy between Iowa and their foe, understand; merely that his team didn't shoot free throws (even if the opposing team didn't either). There's a substantive chasm, surely, between wanting refs to just stay out of your way and wanting them to channel a key element of your offense for you. It's a chasm that players surely pick up on and it's roughly equivalent to your football coach not going for it on 4th-and-1 at midfield when you're down 14. It's a chasm that says: left to our own devices we're not good enough.
Not that you don't need to make your free throws when you do get sent to the line. Of course you do. But FT proficiency speaks to the share of your offense that comes from free throws as opposed to field goals. And over the course of a season, FT proficiency is best thought of as adverbial (like assists)--as describing stylistic inclinations, not level of performance. ¶ 5:42 AM
In my Iowa preview this week I said the Hawkeyes' offense last year was below-average across the board. Strictly speaking, that's not true: Iowa in fact led the league in free throw proficiency.
FTM/FGA (2006, conference games only)
1. Iowa (.293)
2. Michigan (.274)
3. Michigan State (.251)
4. Wisconsin (.241)
5. Indiana (.236)
6. Minnesota (.227)
7. Ohio State (.211)
8. Penn State (.203)
9. Illinois (.197)
10. Northwestern (.189)
11. Purdue (.180)
Leading the conference in FT proficiency shows, I think, that Steve Alford had a laudable grasp of his team's strengths and limitations on offense. But I think it might also speak to confusion regarding the relationship between free throws and offense. And, on a notably more arbitrary note, making free throws an avowed objective of your offensive scheme (as opposed to getting free throws as a byproduct) bothers me aesthetically.
FT proficiency is one of hoops analyst Dean Oliver's paradigmatic "four factors," along with FG shooting, rebounding, and turnovers. Previously I've offered a reading that says that "factors" here should be understood in the literal algebraic sense (these are the four factors in the equation used to determine points per possession) and not in a "keys to the game" manner. And in fact Oliver notes that FT proficiency is the least weighty of the four factors.
But FT proficiency isn't merely less important than foundational stats like shooting, rebounding, and turnovers. It's less important than ephemeral stats, too. For example, in "major"-conference games last year there was a weaker statistical correlation between FT proficiency and points per possession than there was between PPP and attempted threes. Not made threes, mind you. Attempts. (Heck, my silly little "effective possessions" stat that I cooked up on my own in the Wonk kitchen is much more strongly correlated to PPP than is FT proficiency. Of course it is--ePoss is a patently derivative stat that piggybacks shamelessly on the self-evident correlation between not turning the ball over and scoring points.) Made free throws are simply not required for a good offense.
Even more important than the fact that FT proficiency doesn't matter, though, is the fact that I just don't like games with lots of free throws. (Let's keep the focus on me.) And in this vein I find myself thinking back to various instances where Alford, in his postgame comments, has to my ears come perilously close to evincing an a priori need for free throw attempts--regardless of the type of game or style of the opponent. Not complaining of a free throw discrepancy between Iowa and their foe, understand; merely that his team didn't shoot free throws (even if the opposing team didn't either). There's a substantive chasm, surely, between wanting refs to just stay out of your way and wanting them to channel a key element of your offense for you. It's a chasm that players surely pick up on and it's roughly equivalent to your football coach not going for it on 4th-and-1 at midfield when you're down 14. It's a chasm that says: left to our own devices we're not good enough.
Not that you don't need to make your free throws when you do get sent to the line. Of course you do. But FT proficiency speaks to the share of your offense that comes from free throws as opposed to field goals. And over the course of a season, FT proficiency is best thought of as adverbial (like assists)--as describing stylistic inclinations, not level of performance. ¶ 5:42 AM
Monday, November 06, 2006
Meet the new breed at Iowa
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the youthful band of Brunner-less and Horner-less Hawkeyes gathered in Iowa City, proud members of the Big Ten since 1899....
Last year
25-9 overall, 11-5 in conference. Lost to Northwestern State in first round of NCAA Tournament, 64-63.
Back
Adam Haluska (13.9 PPG, 1.13 PPWS, 7.6 reb. pct., 4.0 assists per 100 possessions, 3.5 TOs per 100 possessions)
Mike Henderson (7.6 PPG, 1.12 PPWS, 7.4 reb. pct., 4.1 a/100 poss., 4.7 TO/100 poss.)
Tony Freeman (3.4 PPG, 0.88 PPWS, 4.4 reb. pct., 6.0 a/100 poss., 6.2 TO/100 poss.)
Seth Gorney (1.2 PPG)
Brett Wessels (0.5 PPG)
New
Cyrus Tate (6-8 F, Chicago, CC transfer--enters as sophomore)
Kurt Looby (6-10 F, St. John's, Antigua, CC transfer--enters as junior)
Josh Crawford (6-11 C, Long Beach, CA)
Tyler Smith (6-7 F, Pulaski, TN)
Justin Johnson (6-6 G, Tyler, TX, CC transfer--enters as junior)
J.R. Angle (6-7 F, redshirt sophomore, played in 11 games in 2004-05)
Dan Bohall (6-4 G, redshirt freshman)
Drew Adams (6-1 G, Bloomington, IN, CC transfer--enters as sophomore)
Gone
Greg Brunner (14.1 PPG, 1.05 PPWS, 16.2 reb. pct., 3.3 a/100 poss., 4.7 TO/100 poss.)
Jeff Horner (13.6 PPG, 1.06 PPWS, 6.3 reb. pct., 9.4 a/100 poss., 4.7 TO/100 poss.)
Erek Hansen (6.7 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 11.5 reb. pct., 0.9 a/100poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Doug Thomas (4.6 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 14.7 reb. pct., 1.5 a/100 poss., 3.6 TO/poss.)
Alex Thompson (2.0 PPG)
Carlton Reed (1.8 PPG)
Official motto for 2006-07
"This year names on the jerseys would actually be a help."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Steve Alford says last year's Iowa "team was special defensively." He's right! Last year's Hawkeyes did two things absurdly well: forcing and rebounding misses.
Only problem: that is all they did well, on either side of the ball (see below). And the players that enabled them to do those two things are now gone. The low expectations that surround this team (actual headline: "Alford Enjoys Teaching Basics to Newcomers") are, at this writing, justified.
Take last year's weak offense, subtract three starters. Result?
Alford also says the Hawkeyes "have to find new ways to score." He's right again! Although maybe "we have to find ways to score" would be more accurate--for there were no old ways to score, either.
Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Erek Hansen, and Doug Thomas will be missed, no doubt. But the fact of the matter is that last year, even with the benefit of all those veterans, the Iowa offense was without exception below-average: in shooting, in offensive rebounding, and in taking care of the ball. And what's striking about that is that there was no Pierre Pierce-esque patently inefficient player gobbling up ineffective possessions and wreaking statistical havoc. (Granted, Brunner's 2FG pct. was about ten points lower than your eyes would have thought--but he did at least get to the line a couple hundred times.)
Bottom line: subtract Brunner and Horner and the potential is here for this to be an even less productive offense than last year's and for Adam Haluska's scoring average to rise dramatically. Granted, the newcomers are being talked up--maybe one of them will prove to be a catalytic surprise. But I guess that's my point: the Hawkeyes need a surprise on offense because the sum of the current knowns is not imposing to opposing defenses.
Take last year's outstanding defense, subtract three starters. Result?
Alford also has some huge gaps to plug on the defensive side of the ball this year. Hansen was not only the best shot-blocker in the league, he altered shots even if he didn't block them. Iowa opponents last year had an abysmal 2FG pct. and I scientifically estimate that a bazillion percent of the credit for that goes to Mr. Hansen.
Similarly, the now-departed Brunner was the Hawks' leading scorer, of course, but arguably his most vital contribution was his defensive rebounding. And when Brunner and Thomas were on the floor at the same time, opponents faced two of the Big Ten's best nine defensive rebounders side by side. Meaning even foul trouble for Hansen was at best a mixed blessing for opposing offenses--that was one great defense we saw in Iowa City last year. The Hawkeye D won't be as good this year, of course, but Alford's group would appear to have the length and depth needed to be plain old "good" on defense. And, given the youth of this roster, Iowa's defense will likely need to be strong to meet Alford's stated goal for this year: winning the program's first NCAA tournament game since 2001.
Do do that voodoo that you do so well
Adam Haluska should at long last have the opportunity to do what he does: he scores. He doesn't (or hasn't been asked to) rebound. And he doesn't (or hasn't been asked to) do assists. He scores. (Though, to his credit, it's also true that he doesn't turn the ball over.) Over the course of his previous two seasons in Iowa City, of course, Haluska's had to share the ball. But that doesn't figure to be an issue this year. A little more than half his shots last season were threes and he hit only 34.6 percent of them. He's arguably a better shooter than that but, then again, opposing defenses will be more focused on him this year than ever before.
BONUS analysis of future hoops analysts! Haluska can score but he poses a danger to himself and to others, apparently, when talking about non-Big Ten hoops, to wit: "We play five of six games on the road in November, and for a young team, some of the guys have never really played on the road before let alone at an Arizona State or at Virginia Tech. Those are some great teams, and it's going to be a pretty big test for us early."
"Those are some great teams"? Arizona State? Granted, the Sun Devils figure to improve under Herb Sendek but the deployment of "great" in the present tense here is adventurous, to say the least. Last year ASU went 11-17 and in fact featured one of the very worst defenses in "power"-conference basketball. Plus they lost at home last December to Minnesota on a night when Vincent Grier didn't even play.
Fearlessly iconoclastic college hoops analyst Adam Haluska, Wonk salutes you! Truly you are the Stuart Smalley to the hitherto low self-esteem Sun Devils.
Delayed and demoted but not detained
Mike Henderson will be out three to six weeks with a broken finger suffered last Tuesday in practice. And before that he was in line to be a co-captain along with Haluska until a bit of eerily predictable-feeling Iowa-variety offseason hinkiness gummed up those works. (Henderson was accused of stealing two shirts from a department store.) In non-police-beat news, Henderson's been the object of some preseason bigger-and-better-thing forecasting, thanks to last season's gaudy 46.4 3FG pct. Only problem there being that figure came from less than one 3FGA per game--and Henderson's 69.9 FT pct. doesn't exactly lead one to assume continued perimeter excellence. (He turns the ball over pretty frequently, as well.)
Talk about upside....
Not counting assists (where he put up nice numbers), in 2006 Tony Freeman had the archetypal year of a freshman given too many minutes too soon. His shooting was erratic and his turnover rate can perhaps be explained only as a moving silent tribute to the notoriously turnover-happy and now-departed Pierre Pierce. That being said, other Big Ten guards have put up similar numbers in their first year and gone onto bigger and better things. We'll see if this is Freeman's trajectory.
Etc.
Alford on Cyrus Tate: "He's left-handed. He's got a big-time, Big Ten body, and we've got him for three years. He's a special get for us, but yet he's obviously not as seasoned as what Greg [Brunner] has been."
Tyler Smith originally committed to Tennessee but reconsidered in the wake of coach Buzz Peterson's departure. After a year at Hargrave Military Academy he arrives in Iowa City with the eligibility of a freshman and a reputation of being so athletically gifted it's "scary," according to his new coach. (Speaking of scary....) Smith accompanied Henderson on his shirt shopping spree.
Alford on Kurt Looby: "You watch Kurt, and I swear you're looking at Erek [Hansen]. He runs the floor like a gazelle; he blocks shots. He tip dunks." Looby is clearly being put forth as the next Hansen and, make no mistake, Iowa would dearly love another shot blocker and Big Ten Defensive POY. But keep in mind that it took Hansen three often awkward and hard to watch years to at last become "Hansen."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Division III UW-Stout 82-33 (no, not a typo) Friday night in the Badgers' exhibition opener in Madison. Jason Chappell led Wisconsin with 14 points, as no Badger logged more than 20 minutes. (Box score.)
Purdue beat Division II North Dakota 92-60 Friday night in the Boilers' exhibition opener in West Lafayette. Carl Landry scored 28 points for Purdue, including 13-of-15 shooting from the line. Officials called no fewer than 63 fouls in this game. (Box score.)
Minnesota beat Bemidji State 88-32 (no, not a typo) Friday night in the Gophers' exhibition opener in Minneapolis. Freshman Lawrence Westbrook led Minnesota in minutes, shots, and points (21), as five Gophers reached double figures. (Box score (pdf).)
Ohio State beat Walsh University 87-62 yesterday in an exhibition game in Columbus. Ron Lewis led the Buckeyes in shots and points (21), as five OSU players reached double figures. Mike Conley, Jr., recorded nine assists. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Division II North Dakota yesterday 95-50 in the Hoosiers' exhibition opener in Bloomington. Roderick Wilmont led IU in minutes, shots, and points (18), as six Indiana players reached double figures. The line of the night, however, belonged to freshman Armon Bassett who hit four of five threes and recorded six assists in 21 minutes. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Michigan Tech 85-50 yesterday in an exhibition game in Ann Arbor. Courtney Sims led the Wolverines in shots and points (21), as no Michigan player logged more than 24 minutes. (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Northern Michigan 74-63 yesterday in an exhibition game in East Lansing. Freshman Raymar Morgan led the Spartans in minutes, shots, and points (16). Travis Walton gave new meaning to the term "feast or famine," recording eight assists and seven turnovers in a statistically busy 24 minutes. (Box score.)
See also AP story from March 3, 1962: "Chamberlain held to 100"
Kudos to alert reader Jack M. for bringing this to my attention--from the AP writeup of last Thursday night's exhibition game between New Mexico and Division II Western New Mexico:
New Mexico, which expects to have one of its better 3-point shooting teams in recent years, didn't show it against the overmatched Mustangs. The Lobos were 11 of 26 from behind the arc.
A puny 42.3 percent? Bah! (I guess if you're at a game and you see someone on press row with a copy of The Fountainhead, that's probably the AP writer.)
Anonymous yet stern Professor Kingsfield-esque demander of perfection, Wonk salutes you!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Lance's chances of entranced glances enhances!
On Friday in the course of my Indiana preview, I chanced to remark that onetime who-dat and now newly-arrived Hoosier Lance Stemler was 1-of-12 on his threes at Bradley in 2004-05.
The readers respond!
Dear Mr. Wonk,
Your articles are always insightful with a bit of amusement stuck in. But I have to say you didn’t do enough research on Lance Stemler. This guy can shoot and score, beyond the three-point line and inside (baby hooks with either hand). He will start for IU this year - has one of the prettiest shots you have ever seen from a guy 6-8. Look at last seasons stats when he was a JC All-American. The dude made as many threes as the entire IU backcourt and he was the focus of the other teams' defense.
You are right to dismiss last season's Ratliff. He is a much better player and shooter than we saw last year.
Take care
Ken C.
Ken, it's fast becoming an annual tradition for me to denigrate the shooting prowess of a Hoosier in the Indiana preview--only to see that very same Hoosier go out that season and burn up the nets. See Marshall Strickland last year. In November I pointed out that IU's starting 2-guard was coming off a year in which he shot just 30.1 percent on his threes.
Come April, I hailed this same 2-guard as the most efficient scorer in the Big Ten.
Inescapable conclusion: Stemler should thank me! Now he'll be Big Ten POY for sure! (Greg who?)
Thanks, Ken. ¶ 6:12 AM
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on the youthful band of Brunner-less and Horner-less Hawkeyes gathered in Iowa City, proud members of the Big Ten since 1899....
Last year
25-9 overall, 11-5 in conference. Lost to Northwestern State in first round of NCAA Tournament, 64-63.
Back
Adam Haluska (13.9 PPG, 1.13 PPWS, 7.6 reb. pct., 4.0 assists per 100 possessions, 3.5 TOs per 100 possessions)
Mike Henderson (7.6 PPG, 1.12 PPWS, 7.4 reb. pct., 4.1 a/100 poss., 4.7 TO/100 poss.)
Tony Freeman (3.4 PPG, 0.88 PPWS, 4.4 reb. pct., 6.0 a/100 poss., 6.2 TO/100 poss.)
Seth Gorney (1.2 PPG)
Brett Wessels (0.5 PPG)
New
Cyrus Tate (6-8 F, Chicago, CC transfer--enters as sophomore)
Kurt Looby (6-10 F, St. John's, Antigua, CC transfer--enters as junior)
Josh Crawford (6-11 C, Long Beach, CA)
Tyler Smith (6-7 F, Pulaski, TN)
Justin Johnson (6-6 G, Tyler, TX, CC transfer--enters as junior)
J.R. Angle (6-7 F, redshirt sophomore, played in 11 games in 2004-05)
Dan Bohall (6-4 G, redshirt freshman)
Drew Adams (6-1 G, Bloomington, IN, CC transfer--enters as sophomore)
Gone
Greg Brunner (14.1 PPG, 1.05 PPWS, 16.2 reb. pct., 3.3 a/100 poss., 4.7 TO/100 poss.)
Jeff Horner (13.6 PPG, 1.06 PPWS, 6.3 reb. pct., 9.4 a/100 poss., 4.7 TO/100 poss.)
Erek Hansen (6.7 PPG, 1.21 PPWS, 11.5 reb. pct., 0.9 a/100poss., 4.1 TO/100 poss.)
Doug Thomas (4.6 PPG, 0.98 PPWS, 14.7 reb. pct., 1.5 a/100 poss., 3.6 TO/poss.)
Alex Thompson (2.0 PPG)
Carlton Reed (1.8 PPG)
Official motto for 2006-07
"This year names on the jerseys would actually be a help."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Steve Alford says last year's Iowa "team was special defensively." He's right! Last year's Hawkeyes did two things absurdly well: forcing and rebounding misses.
Only problem: that is all they did well, on either side of the ball (see below). And the players that enabled them to do those two things are now gone. The low expectations that surround this team (actual headline: "Alford Enjoys Teaching Basics to Newcomers") are, at this writing, justified.
Take last year's weak offense, subtract three starters. Result?
Alford also says the Hawkeyes "have to find new ways to score." He's right again! Although maybe "we have to find ways to score" would be more accurate--for there were no old ways to score, either.
Greg Brunner, Jeff Horner, Erek Hansen, and Doug Thomas will be missed, no doubt. But the fact of the matter is that last year, even with the benefit of all those veterans, the Iowa offense was without exception below-average: in shooting, in offensive rebounding, and in taking care of the ball. And what's striking about that is that there was no Pierre Pierce-esque patently inefficient player gobbling up ineffective possessions and wreaking statistical havoc. (Granted, Brunner's 2FG pct. was about ten points lower than your eyes would have thought--but he did at least get to the line a couple hundred times.)
Bottom line: subtract Brunner and Horner and the potential is here for this to be an even less productive offense than last year's and for Adam Haluska's scoring average to rise dramatically. Granted, the newcomers are being talked up--maybe one of them will prove to be a catalytic surprise. But I guess that's my point: the Hawkeyes need a surprise on offense because the sum of the current knowns is not imposing to opposing defenses.
Take last year's outstanding defense, subtract three starters. Result?
Alford also has some huge gaps to plug on the defensive side of the ball this year. Hansen was not only the best shot-blocker in the league, he altered shots even if he didn't block them. Iowa opponents last year had an abysmal 2FG pct. and I scientifically estimate that a bazillion percent of the credit for that goes to Mr. Hansen.
Similarly, the now-departed Brunner was the Hawks' leading scorer, of course, but arguably his most vital contribution was his defensive rebounding. And when Brunner and Thomas were on the floor at the same time, opponents faced two of the Big Ten's best nine defensive rebounders side by side. Meaning even foul trouble for Hansen was at best a mixed blessing for opposing offenses--that was one great defense we saw in Iowa City last year. The Hawkeye D won't be as good this year, of course, but Alford's group would appear to have the length and depth needed to be plain old "good" on defense. And, given the youth of this roster, Iowa's defense will likely need to be strong to meet Alford's stated goal for this year: winning the program's first NCAA tournament game since 2001.
Do do that voodoo that you do so well
Adam Haluska should at long last have the opportunity to do what he does: he scores. He doesn't (or hasn't been asked to) rebound. And he doesn't (or hasn't been asked to) do assists. He scores. (Though, to his credit, it's also true that he doesn't turn the ball over.) Over the course of his previous two seasons in Iowa City, of course, Haluska's had to share the ball. But that doesn't figure to be an issue this year. A little more than half his shots last season were threes and he hit only 34.6 percent of them. He's arguably a better shooter than that but, then again, opposing defenses will be more focused on him this year than ever before.
BONUS analysis of future hoops analysts! Haluska can score but he poses a danger to himself and to others, apparently, when talking about non-Big Ten hoops, to wit: "We play five of six games on the road in November, and for a young team, some of the guys have never really played on the road before let alone at an Arizona State or at Virginia Tech. Those are some great teams, and it's going to be a pretty big test for us early."
"Those are some great teams"? Arizona State? Granted, the Sun Devils figure to improve under Herb Sendek but the deployment of "great" in the present tense here is adventurous, to say the least. Last year ASU went 11-17 and in fact featured one of the very worst defenses in "power"-conference basketball. Plus they lost at home last December to Minnesota on a night when Vincent Grier didn't even play.
Fearlessly iconoclastic college hoops analyst Adam Haluska, Wonk salutes you! Truly you are the Stuart Smalley to the hitherto low self-esteem Sun Devils.
Delayed and demoted but not detained
Mike Henderson will be out three to six weeks with a broken finger suffered last Tuesday in practice. And before that he was in line to be a co-captain along with Haluska until a bit of eerily predictable-feeling Iowa-variety offseason hinkiness gummed up those works. (Henderson was accused of stealing two shirts from a department store.) In non-police-beat news, Henderson's been the object of some preseason bigger-and-better-thing forecasting, thanks to last season's gaudy 46.4 3FG pct. Only problem there being that figure came from less than one 3FGA per game--and Henderson's 69.9 FT pct. doesn't exactly lead one to assume continued perimeter excellence. (He turns the ball over pretty frequently, as well.)
Talk about upside....
Not counting assists (where he put up nice numbers), in 2006 Tony Freeman had the archetypal year of a freshman given too many minutes too soon. His shooting was erratic and his turnover rate can perhaps be explained only as a moving silent tribute to the notoriously turnover-happy and now-departed Pierre Pierce. That being said, other Big Ten guards have put up similar numbers in their first year and gone onto bigger and better things. We'll see if this is Freeman's trajectory.
Etc.
Alford on Cyrus Tate: "He's left-handed. He's got a big-time, Big Ten body, and we've got him for three years. He's a special get for us, but yet he's obviously not as seasoned as what Greg [Brunner] has been."
Tyler Smith originally committed to Tennessee but reconsidered in the wake of coach Buzz Peterson's departure. After a year at Hargrave Military Academy he arrives in Iowa City with the eligibility of a freshman and a reputation of being so athletically gifted it's "scary," according to his new coach. (Speaking of scary....) Smith accompanied Henderson on his shirt shopping spree.
Alford on Kurt Looby: "You watch Kurt, and I swear you're looking at Erek [Hansen]. He runs the floor like a gazelle; he blocks shots. He tip dunks." Looby is clearly being put forth as the next Hansen and, make no mistake, Iowa would dearly love another shot blocker and Big Ten Defensive POY. But keep in mind that it took Hansen three often awkward and hard to watch years to at last become "Hansen."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Wisconsin beat Division III UW-Stout 82-33 (no, not a typo) Friday night in the Badgers' exhibition opener in Madison. Jason Chappell led Wisconsin with 14 points, as no Badger logged more than 20 minutes. (Box score.)
Purdue beat Division II North Dakota 92-60 Friday night in the Boilers' exhibition opener in West Lafayette. Carl Landry scored 28 points for Purdue, including 13-of-15 shooting from the line. Officials called no fewer than 63 fouls in this game. (Box score.)
Minnesota beat Bemidji State 88-32 (no, not a typo) Friday night in the Gophers' exhibition opener in Minneapolis. Freshman Lawrence Westbrook led Minnesota in minutes, shots, and points (21), as five Gophers reached double figures. (Box score (pdf).)
Ohio State beat Walsh University 87-62 yesterday in an exhibition game in Columbus. Ron Lewis led the Buckeyes in shots and points (21), as five OSU players reached double figures. Mike Conley, Jr., recorded nine assists. (Box score.)
Indiana beat Division II North Dakota yesterday 95-50 in the Hoosiers' exhibition opener in Bloomington. Roderick Wilmont led IU in minutes, shots, and points (18), as six Indiana players reached double figures. The line of the night, however, belonged to freshman Armon Bassett who hit four of five threes and recorded six assists in 21 minutes. (Box score.)
Michigan beat Michigan Tech 85-50 yesterday in an exhibition game in Ann Arbor. Courtney Sims led the Wolverines in shots and points (21), as no Michigan player logged more than 24 minutes. (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Northern Michigan 74-63 yesterday in an exhibition game in East Lansing. Freshman Raymar Morgan led the Spartans in minutes, shots, and points (16). Travis Walton gave new meaning to the term "feast or famine," recording eight assists and seven turnovers in a statistically busy 24 minutes. (Box score.)
See also AP story from March 3, 1962: "Chamberlain held to 100"
Kudos to alert reader Jack M. for bringing this to my attention--from the AP writeup of last Thursday night's exhibition game between New Mexico and Division II Western New Mexico:
New Mexico, which expects to have one of its better 3-point shooting teams in recent years, didn't show it against the overmatched Mustangs. The Lobos were 11 of 26 from behind the arc.
A puny 42.3 percent? Bah! (I guess if you're at a game and you see someone on press row with a copy of The Fountainhead, that's probably the AP writer.)
Anonymous yet stern Professor Kingsfield-esque demander of perfection, Wonk salutes you!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Lance's chances of entranced glances enhances!
On Friday in the course of my Indiana preview, I chanced to remark that onetime who-dat and now newly-arrived Hoosier Lance Stemler was 1-of-12 on his threes at Bradley in 2004-05.
The readers respond!
Dear Mr. Wonk,
Your articles are always insightful with a bit of amusement stuck in. But I have to say you didn’t do enough research on Lance Stemler. This guy can shoot and score, beyond the three-point line and inside (baby hooks with either hand). He will start for IU this year - has one of the prettiest shots you have ever seen from a guy 6-8. Look at last seasons stats when he was a JC All-American. The dude made as many threes as the entire IU backcourt and he was the focus of the other teams' defense.
You are right to dismiss last season's Ratliff. He is a much better player and shooter than we saw last year.
Take care
Ken C.
Ken, it's fast becoming an annual tradition for me to denigrate the shooting prowess of a Hoosier in the Indiana preview--only to see that very same Hoosier go out that season and burn up the nets. See Marshall Strickland last year. In November I pointed out that IU's starting 2-guard was coming off a year in which he shot just 30.1 percent on his threes.
Come April, I hailed this same 2-guard as the most efficient scorer in the Big Ten.
Inescapable conclusion: Stemler should thank me! Now he'll be Big Ten POY for sure! (Greg who?)
Thanks, Ken. ¶ 6:12 AM
Friday, November 03, 2006
The Sampson era begins at Indiana
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on a certain group of spiffily candy-striped youngsters from Bloomington, IN, proud members of the Big Ten since 1899.
Last year
19-12 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost in second round of NCAA tournament to Gonzaga, 90-80.
Back
D.J. White (played in only five games in 2005-06 due to two separate foot injuries)
Roderick Wilmont (9.2 PPG, 1.04 PPWS, 10.9 reb. pct., 1.7 assists per 100 possessions, 1.6 TOs per 100 possessions)
Earl Calloway (5.7 PPG, 1.11 PPWS, 7.3 reb. pct., 7.9 A/100 poss., 4.5 TO/100 poss.)
A.J. Ratliff (3.5 PPG, 0.89 PPWS, 6.8 reb. pct., 1.9 A/100 poss., 1.5 TO/100 poss.)
Errek Suhr (3.4 PPG)
Ben Allen (3.2 PPG)
New
Mike White (6-5 F, JC transfer)
Lance Stemler (6-8 F, JC transfer)
Joey Shaw (6-6 G, redshirt freshman)
Armon Bassett (6-1 G, Terre Haute, IN)
Xavier Keeling (6-6 F, Huntsville, AL)
Gone
Marco Killingsworth (17.1 PPG, 1.13 PPWS, 16.4 reb. pct., 4.1 A/100 poss., 8.4 TO/100 poss.)
Robert Vaden (13.5 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 9.5 reb. pct., 6.2 A/100 poss., 5.8 TO/100 poss.)
Marshall Strickland (12.6 PPG, 1.32 PPWS, 6.1 reb. pct., 4.1 A/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Lewis Monroe (3.4 PPG, 1.00 PPWS, 6.3 reb. pct., 6.8 A/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Can Eric Gordon play a year early? Please?"
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Last year was, to say the least, tumultuous for Hoosier fans. The good news is IU made the NCAA tournament and won a game for the first time in three years. The bad news is that last December this looked like a team that was going to do a lot more damage in the tournament than winning just one game....
The Hoosiers barreled out of the gate last year shooting at a level that teams (and coaches) can usually only dream about. Through their first ten games (a stretch that included losses to Duke and Indiana State), IU posted an absolutely absurd 63.0 effective FG pct. (Comparison: last year NC State recorded the best in-conference shooting of any "power"-conference team with a 55.7 eFG pct.) Looking at that shooting last December I waggled a stern finger at the Hoosiers: this kind of unconscious accuracy is "unsustainable," I said in my best buzz-kill manner. Combine that with the leaky Indiana perimeter D, I said then, and, aye verily, there be trouble ahead!
Man, was I ever right--and wrong. The shooting did, of course, get an urgent email from ever-bothersome Mr. Reality:
Indiana shooting, 2005-06 (eFG pct.)
Before January 1: 63.0
After January 1: 49.9
But that Hoosier perimeter D I was fretting about in December turned out to be the primary strength of the team. Big Ten opponents shot just 31.9 percent on their threes and coughed up a notable number of turnovers to the likes of Roderick Wilmont and Earl Calloway. (Don't let anyone tell you the now-departed Robert Vaden "led" Indiana in steals last year. In tempo-free terms the most felonious Hoosier, by a healthy margin, was Calloway.) Opponents' missed threes and turnovers translated into an IU defense that was a hair stingier than the conference average. More bluntly: perimeter D (along with their own three-point shooting) got the Hoosiers to the dance--because everything else was average or worse.
And what does that have to do with this year? Plenty. IU was able to achieve (slightly) above-average D despite the fact that their interior defense was horrible. This year's interior D figures to be vastly improved, for two reasons: 1) the law of averages; and 2) D.J. White. While White only played in five games last year, that was enough for me to take a peek last January at the with- and without-White numbers. The peek confirmed what our eyes already tell us: with White on the floor the Hoosiers are much better at making opponents miss their shots.
Oh, and then there's this new coach. Some guy named Kelvin Sampson. Bit of a reputation for hard-nosed defense, even to the point of having "ugly" teams. IU could use a bit of ugly. (Though Oklahoma's defense last year was surprisingly soft-nosed--OK but certainly not great. Duly noted.) Sampson would appear to be precisely the tough disciplinarian (a virtual anti-Mike Davis) that some Indiana fans have been yearning for. Yes, this same style can lead at least some of his players decide they've "had enough of the shouting." Still, compared to his predecessor's predecessor, Sampson is a regular Fred Rogers.
Add it all up and I think this Indiana team has the potential to look a little like Minnesota in 2005. Which, granted, may not sound like an especially exciting prospect to Hoosier fans. But keep in mind the 2005 Gophers had one of the best defenses in the country. That year Minnesota forced both missed shots and turnovers thanks to aggressive perimeter defenders (remember Vincent Grier, Rico Tucker, and Aaron Robinson?) freed up to be aggressive by a big man patrolling the paint (Jeff Hagen).
On the other hand, I also think IU this year could look a little like Minnesota looked in 2005 on offense. And that's not good news. White, of course, bids fair to compete with Carl Landry of Purdue for the honor of being the most talented post scorer in the Big Ten whose initials aren't "G.O." Past White, however, there are questions on offense. The players the Hoosiers said goodbye to last year (Marshall Strickland, Lewis Monroe, Marco Killingsworth, and Vaden) hit 42 percent of their threes despite attracting the lion's share of opposing defenses' attention. This year's returnees, conversely, hit 36 percent of their threes last season despite being relatively overlooked by opposing defenses. (And the Edvard Munch-level horrific 50-something FT percentages of Wilmont and Ben Allen don't inspire a lot of confidence as to their true shooting capabilities.)
If Indiana does struggle to put the ball in the hole, watch the turnovers. Wisconsin last year put together the semblance of an offense, even though they couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat, simply by refusing to turn the ball over. Such is one possible best-case for the IU offense.
Taking his inspiration from Alando Tucker
After all, Tucker entered last year as a guy with a history of foot problems--and he made it through the season unscathed. Hoosier fans hope D.J. White is as fortunate because the big man is as important to this team as Tucker is to his--if not more. White gives Indiana the promise of points in the paint, rebounding, and post defense. Subtract White and all of the above become matters of concern for Sampson. (True, White's rebounding numbers his freshman year were insistently awful, but last year's five-game cameo gave hints of night-into-day improvement here.)
Winner of the Surprisingly Good Hoosier Rebounder Award two years running!
Roderick Wilmont's obviously a warrior---you don't post a double-digit rebound percentage at 6-4 without having the kind of motor coaches crave. (And this particular warrior exhibits a borderline-freakish ability to hold on to the ball.) But his shot selection is innovative, to say the least. Other things being equal, a 58.3 percent FT shooter who's hitting just 32.5 percent on his threes probably shouldn't be launching more than half his attempts from outside the arc.
Badger comparisons continue....
Earl Calloway--like Kammron Taylor of Wisconsin--turns the ball over a little more often (4.5 per 100 possessions) than what you'd like from your point guard. However, also like Taylor, he is perhaps his coach's best hope for a three-point threat among the starters.
He of the 12 turnovers--the whole year....
Granted he was only on the floor a little more than a third of the time last year. Still: 12 turnovers for the entire season? (Killingsworth would cough up that many in a half last year!) Obsessive caretaker of the ball A.J. Ratliff, Wonk salutes you!
In non-turnover news: Ratliff had a virtually Jamar Smith-like freshman year (startling scoring efficiency from a who-dat tyro) before struggling mightily with injuries and his shot his sophomore season:
Worst 2FG percentages, 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game, returning players only)
1. A.J. Ratliff, IN (32.5)
2. Kammron Taylor, WI (37.2)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (37.7)
4. Tony Freeman, IA (38.8)
5. Travis Walton, MSU (40.0)
This number is so implausibly aberrant--I checked it three times--that I'm conferring upon Ratliff the same retroactive exemption (he was injured) that I gave last year to Dion Harris of Michigan (his entire team was injured). The slate is herewith wiped clean. Go to it, A.J.
Etc.
Ben Allen has apparently been told by Sampson to eat his Wheaties, knock off the threes, and get down on the low block where he belongs.
Mike White is a JC transfer from Lee College in Texas, where he made third-team All-American. Lance Stemler is longer, leaner, and played for Bradley in 2004-05. Stemler took 17 shots for the Braves that year, of which 12 were threes. And of those 12 attempted threes he made one. BONUS unsolicited advice for Coach Sampson! Do not play Stemler and Wilmont at the same time. It could cause a rupture in the space-time-shot-selection continuum.
Redshirt freshman Joey Shaw is reportedly a good perimeter shooter--and that could be a precious commodity this season in Bloomington. (Errek Suhr, of course, posted a gaudy 48.2 3FG pct. last year. What remains to be seen is whether the 5-8 Suhr will get the 13 minutes per game under Sampson that he got under Davis.)
Sampson on Armon Bassett: "I like Armon. Armon is pretty good with the ball in his hands. If this were a football team, Armon would definitely make the offensive team. But you can't call timeout and take one team out and put the other one in. You have to transition to defense."
Indefatigable Hoosier savant Terry Hutchens says Xavier Keeling "is a potential redshirt."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa guard Mike Henderson has a broken finger and will miss three to six weeks. The injury occurred during practice Tuesday. Henderson had surgery yesterday.
Michigan beat Division II Wayne State 85-51 in an exhibition game in Ann Arbor last night. Lester Abram led the Wolverines with 19 points, as the host team hit 12 of 20 threes. (That includes a 4-of-4 from outside the arc by hitherto who-dat freshman Reed Baker.) Tommy Amaker says he's "pleased" with how his veteran team played. (Box score.)
FLASH! Coach Unhappy with his Young Team in November! Talk about man bites dog! Ohio State coach Thad Matta says the Buckeyes' defense wasn't "as tough and as resilient" as it needed to be in Wednesday night's 80-57 win over Division II Findlay. (On the plus side, the box score has now been posted. Glad I didn't have to resort to invoking the Freedom of Information Act.)
Wisconsin opens exhibition play tonight in Madison against Division III UW-Stout. Senior-has-matured (SHM) profile of Kammron Taylor here.
Purdue opens exhibition play tonight in West Lafayette against Division II North Dakota.
Minnesota opens exhibition play tonight in Minneapolis against Bemidji State.
DAD-prevention picks up steam!
On Wednesday I exhorted readers to help me stamp out DAD (defensive attention deficit) and promised that bumper stickers and oven mitts were on the way. Well, here you go, courtesy of the Official Design Majordomo of this blog, Kyle Whelliston....
Today I continue my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on a certain group of spiffily candy-striped youngsters from Bloomington, IN, proud members of the Big Ten since 1899.
Last year
19-12 overall, 9-7 in conference. Lost in second round of NCAA tournament to Gonzaga, 90-80.
Back
D.J. White (played in only five games in 2005-06 due to two separate foot injuries)
Roderick Wilmont (9.2 PPG, 1.04 PPWS, 10.9 reb. pct., 1.7 assists per 100 possessions, 1.6 TOs per 100 possessions)
Earl Calloway (5.7 PPG, 1.11 PPWS, 7.3 reb. pct., 7.9 A/100 poss., 4.5 TO/100 poss.)
A.J. Ratliff (3.5 PPG, 0.89 PPWS, 6.8 reb. pct., 1.9 A/100 poss., 1.5 TO/100 poss.)
Errek Suhr (3.4 PPG)
Ben Allen (3.2 PPG)
New
Mike White (6-5 F, JC transfer)
Lance Stemler (6-8 F, JC transfer)
Joey Shaw (6-6 G, redshirt freshman)
Armon Bassett (6-1 G, Terre Haute, IN)
Xavier Keeling (6-6 F, Huntsville, AL)
Gone
Marco Killingsworth (17.1 PPG, 1.13 PPWS, 16.4 reb. pct., 4.1 A/100 poss., 8.4 TO/100 poss.)
Robert Vaden (13.5 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 9.5 reb. pct., 6.2 A/100 poss., 5.8 TO/100 poss.)
Marshall Strickland (12.6 PPG, 1.32 PPWS, 6.1 reb. pct., 4.1 A/100 poss., 3.2 TO/100 poss.)
Lewis Monroe (3.4 PPG, 1.00 PPWS, 6.3 reb. pct., 6.8 A/100 poss., 3.5 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07
"Can Eric Gordon play a year early? Please?"
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
Last year was, to say the least, tumultuous for Hoosier fans. The good news is IU made the NCAA tournament and won a game for the first time in three years. The bad news is that last December this looked like a team that was going to do a lot more damage in the tournament than winning just one game....
The Hoosiers barreled out of the gate last year shooting at a level that teams (and coaches) can usually only dream about. Through their first ten games (a stretch that included losses to Duke and Indiana State), IU posted an absolutely absurd 63.0 effective FG pct. (Comparison: last year NC State recorded the best in-conference shooting of any "power"-conference team with a 55.7 eFG pct.) Looking at that shooting last December I waggled a stern finger at the Hoosiers: this kind of unconscious accuracy is "unsustainable," I said in my best buzz-kill manner. Combine that with the leaky Indiana perimeter D, I said then, and, aye verily, there be trouble ahead!
Man, was I ever right--and wrong. The shooting did, of course, get an urgent email from ever-bothersome Mr. Reality:
Indiana shooting, 2005-06 (eFG pct.)
Before January 1: 63.0
After January 1: 49.9
But that Hoosier perimeter D I was fretting about in December turned out to be the primary strength of the team. Big Ten opponents shot just 31.9 percent on their threes and coughed up a notable number of turnovers to the likes of Roderick Wilmont and Earl Calloway. (Don't let anyone tell you the now-departed Robert Vaden "led" Indiana in steals last year. In tempo-free terms the most felonious Hoosier, by a healthy margin, was Calloway.) Opponents' missed threes and turnovers translated into an IU defense that was a hair stingier than the conference average. More bluntly: perimeter D (along with their own three-point shooting) got the Hoosiers to the dance--because everything else was average or worse.
And what does that have to do with this year? Plenty. IU was able to achieve (slightly) above-average D despite the fact that their interior defense was horrible. This year's interior D figures to be vastly improved, for two reasons: 1) the law of averages; and 2) D.J. White. While White only played in five games last year, that was enough for me to take a peek last January at the with- and without-White numbers. The peek confirmed what our eyes already tell us: with White on the floor the Hoosiers are much better at making opponents miss their shots.
Oh, and then there's this new coach. Some guy named Kelvin Sampson. Bit of a reputation for hard-nosed defense, even to the point of having "ugly" teams. IU could use a bit of ugly. (Though Oklahoma's defense last year was surprisingly soft-nosed--OK but certainly not great. Duly noted.) Sampson would appear to be precisely the tough disciplinarian (a virtual anti-Mike Davis) that some Indiana fans have been yearning for. Yes, this same style can lead at least some of his players decide they've "had enough of the shouting." Still, compared to his predecessor's predecessor, Sampson is a regular Fred Rogers.
Add it all up and I think this Indiana team has the potential to look a little like Minnesota in 2005. Which, granted, may not sound like an especially exciting prospect to Hoosier fans. But keep in mind the 2005 Gophers had one of the best defenses in the country. That year Minnesota forced both missed shots and turnovers thanks to aggressive perimeter defenders (remember Vincent Grier, Rico Tucker, and Aaron Robinson?) freed up to be aggressive by a big man patrolling the paint (Jeff Hagen).
On the other hand, I also think IU this year could look a little like Minnesota looked in 2005 on offense. And that's not good news. White, of course, bids fair to compete with Carl Landry of Purdue for the honor of being the most talented post scorer in the Big Ten whose initials aren't "G.O." Past White, however, there are questions on offense. The players the Hoosiers said goodbye to last year (Marshall Strickland, Lewis Monroe, Marco Killingsworth, and Vaden) hit 42 percent of their threes despite attracting the lion's share of opposing defenses' attention. This year's returnees, conversely, hit 36 percent of their threes last season despite being relatively overlooked by opposing defenses. (And the Edvard Munch-level horrific 50-something FT percentages of Wilmont and Ben Allen don't inspire a lot of confidence as to their true shooting capabilities.)
If Indiana does struggle to put the ball in the hole, watch the turnovers. Wisconsin last year put together the semblance of an offense, even though they couldn't throw the ball in the ocean from a rowboat, simply by refusing to turn the ball over. Such is one possible best-case for the IU offense.
Taking his inspiration from Alando Tucker
After all, Tucker entered last year as a guy with a history of foot problems--and he made it through the season unscathed. Hoosier fans hope D.J. White is as fortunate because the big man is as important to this team as Tucker is to his--if not more. White gives Indiana the promise of points in the paint, rebounding, and post defense. Subtract White and all of the above become matters of concern for Sampson. (True, White's rebounding numbers his freshman year were insistently awful, but last year's five-game cameo gave hints of night-into-day improvement here.)
Winner of the Surprisingly Good Hoosier Rebounder Award two years running!
Roderick Wilmont's obviously a warrior---you don't post a double-digit rebound percentage at 6-4 without having the kind of motor coaches crave. (And this particular warrior exhibits a borderline-freakish ability to hold on to the ball.) But his shot selection is innovative, to say the least. Other things being equal, a 58.3 percent FT shooter who's hitting just 32.5 percent on his threes probably shouldn't be launching more than half his attempts from outside the arc.
Badger comparisons continue....
Earl Calloway--like Kammron Taylor of Wisconsin--turns the ball over a little more often (4.5 per 100 possessions) than what you'd like from your point guard. However, also like Taylor, he is perhaps his coach's best hope for a three-point threat among the starters.
He of the 12 turnovers--the whole year....
Granted he was only on the floor a little more than a third of the time last year. Still: 12 turnovers for the entire season? (Killingsworth would cough up that many in a half last year!) Obsessive caretaker of the ball A.J. Ratliff, Wonk salutes you!
In non-turnover news: Ratliff had a virtually Jamar Smith-like freshman year (startling scoring efficiency from a who-dat tyro) before struggling mightily with injuries and his shot his sophomore season:
Worst 2FG percentages, 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game, returning players only)
1. A.J. Ratliff, IN (32.5)
2. Kammron Taylor, WI (37.2)
3. Joe Krabbenhoft, WI (37.7)
4. Tony Freeman, IA (38.8)
5. Travis Walton, MSU (40.0)
This number is so implausibly aberrant--I checked it three times--that I'm conferring upon Ratliff the same retroactive exemption (he was injured) that I gave last year to Dion Harris of Michigan (his entire team was injured). The slate is herewith wiped clean. Go to it, A.J.
Etc.
Ben Allen has apparently been told by Sampson to eat his Wheaties, knock off the threes, and get down on the low block where he belongs.
Mike White is a JC transfer from Lee College in Texas, where he made third-team All-American. Lance Stemler is longer, leaner, and played for Bradley in 2004-05. Stemler took 17 shots for the Braves that year, of which 12 were threes. And of those 12 attempted threes he made one. BONUS unsolicited advice for Coach Sampson! Do not play Stemler and Wilmont at the same time. It could cause a rupture in the space-time-shot-selection continuum.
Redshirt freshman Joey Shaw is reportedly a good perimeter shooter--and that could be a precious commodity this season in Bloomington. (Errek Suhr, of course, posted a gaudy 48.2 3FG pct. last year. What remains to be seen is whether the 5-8 Suhr will get the 13 minutes per game under Sampson that he got under Davis.)
Sampson on Armon Bassett: "I like Armon. Armon is pretty good with the ball in his hands. If this were a football team, Armon would definitely make the offensive team. But you can't call timeout and take one team out and put the other one in. You have to transition to defense."
Indefatigable Hoosier savant Terry Hutchens says Xavier Keeling "is a potential redshirt."
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Iowa guard Mike Henderson has a broken finger and will miss three to six weeks. The injury occurred during practice Tuesday. Henderson had surgery yesterday.
Michigan beat Division II Wayne State 85-51 in an exhibition game in Ann Arbor last night. Lester Abram led the Wolverines with 19 points, as the host team hit 12 of 20 threes. (That includes a 4-of-4 from outside the arc by hitherto who-dat freshman Reed Baker.) Tommy Amaker says he's "pleased" with how his veteran team played. (Box score.)
FLASH! Coach Unhappy with his Young Team in November! Talk about man bites dog! Ohio State coach Thad Matta says the Buckeyes' defense wasn't "as tough and as resilient" as it needed to be in Wednesday night's 80-57 win over Division II Findlay. (On the plus side, the box score has now been posted. Glad I didn't have to resort to invoking the Freedom of Information Act.)
Wisconsin opens exhibition play tonight in Madison against Division III UW-Stout. Senior-has-matured (SHM) profile of Kammron Taylor here.
Purdue opens exhibition play tonight in West Lafayette against Division II North Dakota.
Minnesota opens exhibition play tonight in Minneapolis against Bemidji State.
DAD-prevention picks up steam!
On Wednesday I exhorted readers to help me stamp out DAD (defensive attention deficit) and promised that bumper stickers and oven mitts were on the way. Well, here you go, courtesy of the Official Design Majordomo of this blog, Kyle Whelliston....
Thanks, Kyle!
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
People from Springfield also spell "chilli" correctly....
Yesterday I detoured from what was supposed to be a preview of Illinois long enough to remark that Rich McBride and yours truly share something in common with the late great jazz drummer Barrett Deems. All of the above hail from Springfield, Illinois.
The readers respond!
As a fellow Springfieldian, I'm forced to relate this story....
My mother, who knew Barrett Deems slightly, reports that when he was forced to take a physical for the draft in World War II, the examining physician--seeing Deems' palsy-like shakes (the product of great drumming and living, well, too close to the edge)--told him: "I wouldn't take you if Hitler was in Iowa!"
Love your work, keep it up!
Jack M.
Thanks, Jack!
Thursday, November 02, 2006
Where will the points come from for Illinois?
Today I kick off my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on that suddenly who-dat blessed band of orange-bedecked young men from Champaign, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896.
Last year
26-7 overall, 11-5 in conference. Lost in second round of NCAA tournament to Washington, 67-64.
Back
Rich McBride (10.0 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 3.7 reb. pct., 4.4 assists per 100 possessions, 3.0 TOs per 100 possessions)
Brian Randle (8.5 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 12.3 reb. pct., 3.4 A/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
Jamar Smith (8.0 PPG, 1.32 PPWS, 5.2 reb. pct., 4.4 A/100 poss., 3.5 A/100 poss.)
Shaun Pruitt (6.2 PPG, 1.04 PPWS, 16.0 reb. pct., 1.5 A/100 poss., 3.8 TO/100 poss.)
Warren Carter (4.8 PPG)
Marcus Arnold (3.5 PPG)
Calvin Brock (1.4 PPG)
Chester Frazier (1.3 PPG)
New
Brian Carlwell (6-11 C, Chicago)
Richard Semrau (6-9 F, Grafton, OH)
Trent Meacham (6-2 G, transfer from Dayton)
C.J. Jackson (6-8 F, redshirt freshman)
Gone
Dee Brown (14.2 PPG, 0.97 PPWS, 5.2 reb. pct., 10.1 A/100 poss., 5.0 TO/100 poss.)
James Augustine (13.6 PPG, 1.28 PPWS, 16.9 reb. pct., 3.4 A/100 poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07 (muttered while rocking to-and-fro in the fetal position)
"There's no such sport as football, there's no such sport as football, there's no such sport as football...."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
The past two seasons of Illinois basketball provide a handy illustration of how continuity can coexist happily alongside change. (How Hegelian!) The Illini defense last season was about as effective as in 2005. But the offense declined sharply--hardly surprising, surely, when you say goodbye to Deron Williams and Luther Head. (Look fast: at this moment all five starters from the 2005 team are employed by the NBA, three of them by the same team.) And so my beloved Illinois, even with their consistently solid defense, took a step back: from 37-2 and national runner-up to 26-7 and getting sent home the first weekend.
This year the Illini say goodbye to Dee Brown and James Augustine, the two winningest players in the program's history. Will the offense again suffer accordingly? Not as much as last year. Brown and Augustine were both great players, no question, but as it happens only one of them had a great year last year. And that would be Augustine: the big man was one of the most efficient scorers in the Big Ten and rebounded with ferocity. Brown, on the other hand, struggled with his shot--even as he took more shots, by far, than any other Illinois player.
Indeed, the only area in which an otherwise sound Illinois team performed below the conference average last year was three-point shooting, so there's ample room for improvement there. It's true, of course, that Rich McBride (once he returns from his DUI-triggered suspension) and Jamar Smith (who together with McBride combined for a superb 43.4 3FG pct. last year) will receive much more attention from opposing defenses now that Brown's gone. But it's also true that Brown missed a whopping 165 threes last year--exactly five misses a game. (Brown paid dearly for the increased defensive attention opponents gave him in the absence of Williams and Head.) So the guess here is that McBride and Smith will see their combined 3FG pct. dip--but Illinois will nevertheless see its overall 3FG pct. improve.
Still, saying the Illinois offense won't fall off as much as it did last year is faint praise, indeed. With McBride serving his four-game suspension, a starting lineup of Smith, Brian Randle, Chester Frazier, Shaun Pruitt, and Warren Carter would not appear to be formidable on offense, to say the least. Most notably, that lineup has precisely zero outside shooting beyond Smith. So McBride holds an importance beyond his ability: he and Smith on the floor together present opponents with a perimeter that needs defending, thus opening things up in the post.
Granted, a three-guard Illini lineup is, in this instance (McBride, Smith, Frazier), a really short Illini lineup--and that triggers defensive worry. The thought here is not that such a lineup is the solitary and unchallenged ideal, rather that being able to deploy a particular combination of five players with some scoring ability would be a nice card to have in your deck.
As for this year's defense, Illinois would appear to be in good shape. They have speed, length, a modicum of depth, and a former Gene Keady protégé yelling hoarse epithets at them daily. Barring injury, that should net out to another year of opponents scoring less than a point per possession. (Ho-hum, right? On the contrary! The coach that truly achieves what nattering commentators always say their favorite coach has achieved will indeed be worthy of pre-Michigan Weis-level fawning: getting phenomenally talented 19-year-olds, recruited precisely for their ability to score points, to work as hard at preventing the scoring of points. Personally I think Roy Williams may be approaching that territory--topic for another day.)
Of course, seen in 2005 terms Bruce Weber is down to an unprepossessing bunch of relative who-dats. But--again, once McBride returns--it's a nicely blended bunch of who-dats. You have your outside shooters (McBride and Smith) your defensive stopper (Randle), your rebounder (Pruitt), and your high-assist point guard (Frazier). Not spectacular, surely. But solid.
Fellow Springfieldians (Barrett Deems, Robin Roberts, Andre Iguodala, me), unite!
A native of my own beloved Springfield, Illinois, Rich McBride was suspended for four games by Weber after McBride was arrested just outside Champaign on DUI charges on September 29. (No word on whether McBride shouted virulent anti-referee epithets at the arresting officer.) As for on-court matters: last year McBride lost some weight and gained some accuracy on his perimeter shot (40.3 3FG pct.). I trust McBride doesn't need to lose any more weight but a repeat performance on the accuracy would be most helpful to Weber. If Illinois can establish two consistent perimeter threats it will take pressure off their post scoring and their D.
There is no "D" in "free throw"
Brian Randle is known primarily as a defender--and rightfully so. He's outstanding, a Bruce Bowen-esque combination of length and agility. On offense, conversely, Randle presents a different sort of combination. In effect the junior from Peoria is a highly efficient scorer trapped in the body of an excruciatingly bad free throw shooter. Recall that there are but three types of shots to be attempted in this here sport: two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws. Illini fans should feel very good when they see Randle about to attempt the first type of shot (58.5 2FG pct. in 2006) but should flee in Edvard Munch-level horror when they see him about to attempt the second (17.6 3FG pct.) or the third (59.3 FT pct.). (Coming into this year Randle is reported to have worked on his shot and is thus getting the same kind of preseason "Hey! He can shoot now!" coverage that Alando Tucker elicits in abundance.)
Randle's other challenge is existential: staying on the floor. He is whistled for fouls with alarming frequency.
(Injury update here.)
Can he do it two years in a row?
Granted he did it coming off the bench. Still, Jamar Smith, along with Marshall Strickland of Indiana, was the most efficient scorer in the Big Ten last year. Will he repeat? Of course not! For one thing, defenses will be much more focused on Smith than they were last year, when they had Brown and Augustine to contend with. And Smith's thoroughly meh 70.4 FT pct. suggests he was very fortunate, as Ken Pomeroy would doubtless be quick to point out, to drain 48 percent of his threes. So expect Smith's 3FG pct. to drop this year. (But be of good cheer, fellow Illini fans! This very same FT-3FG relationship suggests continued excellence in perimeter marksmanship from McBride, who hit 88 percent of his (scarce) free throws last year.)
From boards to points in the paint?
Look in the dictionary under "offensive rebound" and you'll see a picture of Shaun Pruitt: a big man perceived by opposing teams as posing little threat on offense....
Offensive reb. pct., 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. J'son Stamper, MN (13.3)
2. Shaun Pruitt, IL (13.2)
3. Matt Kiefer, PUR (12.8)
4. Graham Brown, MI (12.5)
5. Spencer Tollackson, MN (11.3)
It'll be good news for Illini fans if Pruitt slides off this list--because that would mean he's getting touches in the paint by design and becoming a dependable cog in the offense. (And indeed Pruitt showed flashes last year.) So the big man's to-do list for this year is: more touches, more points, and improved defensive rebounding (last year's defensive reb. pct.: 18.8; Augustine's was 22.6).
Just a little threat will do
Chester Frazier couldn't hit a shot to save his life last year (0.60 PPWS, the lowest figure of 99 Big Ten players in 2006) and if that continues that's a concern for Weber. Frazier doesn't need to be Illinois' leading scorer, mind you--merely pose enough of a threat to prevent 5-on-4 defense. The good news for Illini fans is that Frazier's numbers for assists (8.6 per 100 possessions) and turnovers (3.6/100 poss.) suggest a player who can hold down the point-guard duties quite capably. He just needs to achieve normalcy in his (ideally rare) outside shooting--hitting, say, 34 percent of his threes.
Just a little threat will do, part deux
Warren Carter, he of the new-look hair, is an OK rebounder, posting a 13.5 reb. pct. in limited action last year. (He's no Pruitt, much less Augustine, but that's a little better than Randle's number.) Acceptability in the rebound department is not to be taken lightly on this year's roster--Weber, who says Carter "has the potential to be really good," needs someone to help Pruitt do the dirty work.
Etc.
Senior big man and former Illinois State standout Marcus Arnold may well be needed this year (though not at point guard, if his 1:10.5 assist-turnover ratio is any indication). Weber would doubtless be delighted to see Arnold become an added source of boards and fouls to give.
Weber declared himself happy with how "confident" first-year big men Brian Carlwell and Richard Semrau looked at the Illini midnight madness event on October 13. Brian Randle, clearly impressed with Carlwell's D, says the freshman's been "blocking shots with his elbows" in practice. (Carlwell also provides a rare freshman weight-loss illustration of the validity of the law of November weight change. He has shed pounds and everyone's happy. Usually first-year big men are hectored to carb up for the rigors of the Big Ten. Not so Carlwell.) And Semrau's been described by his new teammates (set your preseason chatter dial to "hyperbolic") as James Augustine with a three-point shot. Redshirt freshman C.J. Jackson gives Weber still another body down low.
With 109 career minutes, Calvin Brock represents, all by his lonesome, the entirety of the Illini's "experienced" backcourt depth...kind of. Champaign native and Dayton transfer Trent Meacham averaged 18 minutes a game for the Flyers as a freshman in 2005. Meacham figures to back up Frazier at the point. If the young man from Champaign can hold on to the ball and play some D, he should get some serious minutes, for he gives hints of possessing an outside shot.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Penn State forward Geary Claxton suffered a broken finger in last night's 71-53 exhibition win over Division II Edinboro in State College. Claxton broke a bone in his right pinkie finger and is expected to miss two weeks. (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Division II Grand Valley State 61-57 in an exhibition game in Grand Rapids last night. Drew Neitzel led the Spartans with 27 points on 9-of-9 free throw shooting in 39 minutes. MSU gave GVSU 17 turnovers and trailed by as many as 16 in the first half. "The coaching points that we will get out of this game will be enormous,'' Tom Izzo said afterward. "Our film sessions will be a lot longer than the practices." (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Division II Findlay 80-57 in an exhibition game in Columbus last night. Ron Lewis scored 17 to lead the Buckeyes and freshman Mike Conley recorded seven assists. (Link here for the least informative box score I have ever seen.)
Illinois beat Division II Lewis University 83-58 in an exhibition played in Champaign last night. The Illini played this game without Rich McBride (suspended for four games for his DUI arrest in September) and Brian Randle (strained groin). Warren Carter led the men in orange with 13 points. Jamar Smith attempted eight threes and made zero, exemplifying an Illinois perimeter attack that went 3-of-21 from outside the arc. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Remember: DAD is always wrong
Yesterday I suggested that defense is as important as offense. The readers respond!
As always, great blog. Here's a bit on the importance of defense that you might enjoy....
Yesterday I was listening to an interview with John Feinstein on NPR regarding Red Auerbach and Feinstein relayed a story told to him by Morgan Wooten, coach of DeMatha High School and the winningest high school basketball coach in the country.
During a summer league game many years ago, Red sat by the DeMatha bench in a game that went into triple overtime and was eventually won by the other team. When he saw Wooten after the game, Red said that he was sorry and Wooten said: Why? It was a great game and it's just summer league. Red said, no, I meant I'm sorry you lost your team the game.
Wooten said, huh? What do you mean? Red said: You went three overtimes and every time you had a timeout or stoppage, you talked to your team about their offense. You never once brought up your defense, even though you weren't having any trouble scoring and couldn't stop the other team.
Have a great day! Love the blog.
Nuclear Badger
Alexandria, VA
Thanks, NB!
¶ 6:40 AM
Today I kick off my alphabetically sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each Big Ten team with some thoughts on that suddenly who-dat blessed band of orange-bedecked young men from Champaign, proud members of the Big Ten since its founding in 1896.
Last year
26-7 overall, 11-5 in conference. Lost in second round of NCAA tournament to Washington, 67-64.
Back
Rich McBride (10.0 PPG, 1.14 PPWS, 3.7 reb. pct., 4.4 assists per 100 possessions, 3.0 TOs per 100 possessions)
Brian Randle (8.5 PPG, 1.09 PPWS, 12.3 reb. pct., 3.4 A/100 poss., 3.1 TO/100 poss.)
Jamar Smith (8.0 PPG, 1.32 PPWS, 5.2 reb. pct., 4.4 A/100 poss., 3.5 A/100 poss.)
Shaun Pruitt (6.2 PPG, 1.04 PPWS, 16.0 reb. pct., 1.5 A/100 poss., 3.8 TO/100 poss.)
Warren Carter (4.8 PPG)
Marcus Arnold (3.5 PPG)
Calvin Brock (1.4 PPG)
Chester Frazier (1.3 PPG)
New
Brian Carlwell (6-11 C, Chicago)
Richard Semrau (6-9 F, Grafton, OH)
Trent Meacham (6-2 G, transfer from Dayton)
C.J. Jackson (6-8 F, redshirt freshman)
Gone
Dee Brown (14.2 PPG, 0.97 PPWS, 5.2 reb. pct., 10.1 A/100 poss., 5.0 TO/100 poss.)
James Augustine (13.6 PPG, 1.28 PPWS, 16.9 reb. pct., 3.4 A/100 poss., 3.9 TO/100 poss.)
Official motto for 2006-07 (muttered while rocking to-and-fro in the fetal position)
"There's no such sport as football, there's no such sport as football, there's no such sport as football...."
What we think we know in November (read the warning label)
The past two seasons of Illinois basketball provide a handy illustration of how continuity can coexist happily alongside change. (How Hegelian!) The Illini defense last season was about as effective as in 2005. But the offense declined sharply--hardly surprising, surely, when you say goodbye to Deron Williams and Luther Head. (Look fast: at this moment all five starters from the 2005 team are employed by the NBA, three of them by the same team.) And so my beloved Illinois, even with their consistently solid defense, took a step back: from 37-2 and national runner-up to 26-7 and getting sent home the first weekend.
This year the Illini say goodbye to Dee Brown and James Augustine, the two winningest players in the program's history. Will the offense again suffer accordingly? Not as much as last year. Brown and Augustine were both great players, no question, but as it happens only one of them had a great year last year. And that would be Augustine: the big man was one of the most efficient scorers in the Big Ten and rebounded with ferocity. Brown, on the other hand, struggled with his shot--even as he took more shots, by far, than any other Illinois player.
Indeed, the only area in which an otherwise sound Illinois team performed below the conference average last year was three-point shooting, so there's ample room for improvement there. It's true, of course, that Rich McBride (once he returns from his DUI-triggered suspension) and Jamar Smith (who together with McBride combined for a superb 43.4 3FG pct. last year) will receive much more attention from opposing defenses now that Brown's gone. But it's also true that Brown missed a whopping 165 threes last year--exactly five misses a game. (Brown paid dearly for the increased defensive attention opponents gave him in the absence of Williams and Head.) So the guess here is that McBride and Smith will see their combined 3FG pct. dip--but Illinois will nevertheless see its overall 3FG pct. improve.
Still, saying the Illinois offense won't fall off as much as it did last year is faint praise, indeed. With McBride serving his four-game suspension, a starting lineup of Smith, Brian Randle, Chester Frazier, Shaun Pruitt, and Warren Carter would not appear to be formidable on offense, to say the least. Most notably, that lineup has precisely zero outside shooting beyond Smith. So McBride holds an importance beyond his ability: he and Smith on the floor together present opponents with a perimeter that needs defending, thus opening things up in the post.
Granted, a three-guard Illini lineup is, in this instance (McBride, Smith, Frazier), a really short Illini lineup--and that triggers defensive worry. The thought here is not that such a lineup is the solitary and unchallenged ideal, rather that being able to deploy a particular combination of five players with some scoring ability would be a nice card to have in your deck.
As for this year's defense, Illinois would appear to be in good shape. They have speed, length, a modicum of depth, and a former Gene Keady protégé yelling hoarse epithets at them daily. Barring injury, that should net out to another year of opponents scoring less than a point per possession. (Ho-hum, right? On the contrary! The coach that truly achieves what nattering commentators always say their favorite coach has achieved will indeed be worthy of pre-Michigan Weis-level fawning: getting phenomenally talented 19-year-olds, recruited precisely for their ability to score points, to work as hard at preventing the scoring of points. Personally I think Roy Williams may be approaching that territory--topic for another day.)
Of course, seen in 2005 terms Bruce Weber is down to an unprepossessing bunch of relative who-dats. But--again, once McBride returns--it's a nicely blended bunch of who-dats. You have your outside shooters (McBride and Smith) your defensive stopper (Randle), your rebounder (Pruitt), and your high-assist point guard (Frazier). Not spectacular, surely. But solid.
Fellow Springfieldians (Barrett Deems, Robin Roberts, Andre Iguodala, me), unite!
A native of my own beloved Springfield, Illinois, Rich McBride was suspended for four games by Weber after McBride was arrested just outside Champaign on DUI charges on September 29. (No word on whether McBride shouted virulent anti-referee epithets at the arresting officer.) As for on-court matters: last year McBride lost some weight and gained some accuracy on his perimeter shot (40.3 3FG pct.). I trust McBride doesn't need to lose any more weight but a repeat performance on the accuracy would be most helpful to Weber. If Illinois can establish two consistent perimeter threats it will take pressure off their post scoring and their D.
There is no "D" in "free throw"
Brian Randle is known primarily as a defender--and rightfully so. He's outstanding, a Bruce Bowen-esque combination of length and agility. On offense, conversely, Randle presents a different sort of combination. In effect the junior from Peoria is a highly efficient scorer trapped in the body of an excruciatingly bad free throw shooter. Recall that there are but three types of shots to be attempted in this here sport: two-pointers, three-pointers, and free throws. Illini fans should feel very good when they see Randle about to attempt the first type of shot (58.5 2FG pct. in 2006) but should flee in Edvard Munch-level horror when they see him about to attempt the second (17.6 3FG pct.) or the third (59.3 FT pct.). (Coming into this year Randle is reported to have worked on his shot and is thus getting the same kind of preseason "Hey! He can shoot now!" coverage that Alando Tucker elicits in abundance.)
Randle's other challenge is existential: staying on the floor. He is whistled for fouls with alarming frequency.
(Injury update here.)
Can he do it two years in a row?
Granted he did it coming off the bench. Still, Jamar Smith, along with Marshall Strickland of Indiana, was the most efficient scorer in the Big Ten last year. Will he repeat? Of course not! For one thing, defenses will be much more focused on Smith than they were last year, when they had Brown and Augustine to contend with. And Smith's thoroughly meh 70.4 FT pct. suggests he was very fortunate, as Ken Pomeroy would doubtless be quick to point out, to drain 48 percent of his threes. So expect Smith's 3FG pct. to drop this year. (But be of good cheer, fellow Illini fans! This very same FT-3FG relationship suggests continued excellence in perimeter marksmanship from McBride, who hit 88 percent of his (scarce) free throws last year.)
From boards to points in the paint?
Look in the dictionary under "offensive rebound" and you'll see a picture of Shaun Pruitt: a big man perceived by opposing teams as posing little threat on offense....
Offensive reb. pct., 2006 (all games, 15+ min. per game)
1. J'son Stamper, MN (13.3)
2. Shaun Pruitt, IL (13.2)
3. Matt Kiefer, PUR (12.8)
4. Graham Brown, MI (12.5)
5. Spencer Tollackson, MN (11.3)
It'll be good news for Illini fans if Pruitt slides off this list--because that would mean he's getting touches in the paint by design and becoming a dependable cog in the offense. (And indeed Pruitt showed flashes last year.) So the big man's to-do list for this year is: more touches, more points, and improved defensive rebounding (last year's defensive reb. pct.: 18.8; Augustine's was 22.6).
Just a little threat will do
Chester Frazier couldn't hit a shot to save his life last year (0.60 PPWS, the lowest figure of 99 Big Ten players in 2006) and if that continues that's a concern for Weber. Frazier doesn't need to be Illinois' leading scorer, mind you--merely pose enough of a threat to prevent 5-on-4 defense. The good news for Illini fans is that Frazier's numbers for assists (8.6 per 100 possessions) and turnovers (3.6/100 poss.) suggest a player who can hold down the point-guard duties quite capably. He just needs to achieve normalcy in his (ideally rare) outside shooting--hitting, say, 34 percent of his threes.
Just a little threat will do, part deux
Warren Carter, he of the new-look hair, is an OK rebounder, posting a 13.5 reb. pct. in limited action last year. (He's no Pruitt, much less Augustine, but that's a little better than Randle's number.) Acceptability in the rebound department is not to be taken lightly on this year's roster--Weber, who says Carter "has the potential to be really good," needs someone to help Pruitt do the dirty work.
Etc.
Senior big man and former Illinois State standout Marcus Arnold may well be needed this year (though not at point guard, if his 1:10.5 assist-turnover ratio is any indication). Weber would doubtless be delighted to see Arnold become an added source of boards and fouls to give.
Weber declared himself happy with how "confident" first-year big men Brian Carlwell and Richard Semrau looked at the Illini midnight madness event on October 13. Brian Randle, clearly impressed with Carlwell's D, says the freshman's been "blocking shots with his elbows" in practice. (Carlwell also provides a rare freshman weight-loss illustration of the validity of the law of November weight change. He has shed pounds and everyone's happy. Usually first-year big men are hectored to carb up for the rigors of the Big Ten. Not so Carlwell.) And Semrau's been described by his new teammates (set your preseason chatter dial to "hyperbolic") as James Augustine with a three-point shot. Redshirt freshman C.J. Jackson gives Weber still another body down low.
With 109 career minutes, Calvin Brock represents, all by his lonesome, the entirety of the Illini's "experienced" backcourt depth...kind of. Champaign native and Dayton transfer Trent Meacham averaged 18 minutes a game for the Flyers as a freshman in 2005. Meacham figures to back up Frazier at the point. If the young man from Champaign can hold on to the ball and play some D, he should get some serious minutes, for he gives hints of possessing an outside shot.
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Penn State forward Geary Claxton suffered a broken finger in last night's 71-53 exhibition win over Division II Edinboro in State College. Claxton broke a bone in his right pinkie finger and is expected to miss two weeks. (Box score.)
Michigan State beat Division II Grand Valley State 61-57 in an exhibition game in Grand Rapids last night. Drew Neitzel led the Spartans with 27 points on 9-of-9 free throw shooting in 39 minutes. MSU gave GVSU 17 turnovers and trailed by as many as 16 in the first half. "The coaching points that we will get out of this game will be enormous,'' Tom Izzo said afterward. "Our film sessions will be a lot longer than the practices." (Box score.)
Ohio State beat Division II Findlay 80-57 in an exhibition game in Columbus last night. Ron Lewis scored 17 to lead the Buckeyes and freshman Mike Conley recorded seven assists. (Link here for the least informative box score I have ever seen.)
Illinois beat Division II Lewis University 83-58 in an exhibition played in Champaign last night. The Illini played this game without Rich McBride (suspended for four games for his DUI arrest in September) and Brian Randle (strained groin). Warren Carter led the men in orange with 13 points. Jamar Smith attempted eight threes and made zero, exemplifying an Illinois perimeter attack that went 3-of-21 from outside the arc. (Box score.)
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me!
Remember: DAD is always wrong
Yesterday I suggested that defense is as important as offense. The readers respond!
As always, great blog. Here's a bit on the importance of defense that you might enjoy....
Yesterday I was listening to an interview with John Feinstein on NPR regarding Red Auerbach and Feinstein relayed a story told to him by Morgan Wooten, coach of DeMatha High School and the winningest high school basketball coach in the country.
During a summer league game many years ago, Red sat by the DeMatha bench in a game that went into triple overtime and was eventually won by the other team. When he saw Wooten after the game, Red said that he was sorry and Wooten said: Why? It was a great game and it's just summer league. Red said, no, I meant I'm sorry you lost your team the game.
Wooten said, huh? What do you mean? Red said: You went three overtimes and every time you had a timeout or stoppage, you talked to your team about their offense. You never once brought up your defense, even though you weren't having any trouble scoring and couldn't stop the other team.
Have a great day! Love the blog.
Nuclear Badger
Alexandria, VA
Thanks, NB!
¶ 6:40 AM
A warning to readers of season previews
The teams that made it to the Final Four last season were Florida, UCLA, LSU, and George Mason. I can't recall that any of the four were the subject of special attention or analysis last November. Not from me, certainly.
Which is merely to state the obvious--but sometimes the obvious needs re-stating. Season previews are notoriously unreliable. Doesn't matter who's writing them: an MSM commentator, a former coach, me, anyone. The preview, by its very nature, can look silly within days. (Blue Ribbon notwithstanding, of course.)
For my part, then, I fret less about how sensible my previews sound and more about how quickly I can flee dumb positions staked out in murky November.
Take last season. A year ago at this time I was telling all who would listen about how Michigan State was going to blaze their way to the Big Ten title. Yep, no question about it. I mean, what's not to love? Izzo, four starters returning from a Final Four team...it's a no-brainer.
Well, it was a no-brainer, but not in the originally intended sense. For it came to pass that actual games started to be played--and I began to fret openly in the blog. MSU lost its first game to Hawaii, 84-62. Wow, total fluke, I said--but let's "stay tuned" on this.
Then the Spartans lost a triple-OT thriller to eighth-ranked Gonzaga in Hawaii. Wow, great game, I said--but this Spartan defense looks worse than I expected. Then MSU beat sixth-ranked Boston College by seven in a slow game at Madison Square Garden. Wow, great win, I said--but this Spartan defense looks worse than I expected.
The fretting culminated in a virtual volte-face on January 3. By that time Michigan State was 12-2 and ranked seventh in the nation. But I was good and spooked:
As Frank McGuire is my witness and barring only a 2004 Red Sox-level miracle, Michigan State won't get to Indianapolis playing the way they've played thus far. If they continue to play at this level they will be merely this year's Wake Forest: superb on offense and blessed with NBA-level talent yet defensively hapless and, in the end, sitting at home watching the Final Four.
This, of course, was but a few dozen days removed from my State's-a-sure-thing talk.
So consider yourself warned: "November insight" is an oxymoron about like "Terrell Owens' quiet dignity."
(Also note that, for all my fretting about the D, it turns out State's offense last year was also significantly worse than in 2005. None of which I or anyone that I know of foresaw in November.)
BONUS preemptive exculpation! There will be at least one catalytic surprise this year in the Big Ten. In 2005 it was Vincent Grier. It would have taken a leap of faith, surely, in November of 2004 to have written: "This who-dat from Dixie State Junior College is going to prove to be a prolific scorer, tireless defender, and effective leader. He will lead Minnesota to the NCAA tournament this year." In 2006 it was Erek Hansen. It would have taken a leap of faith, surely, in November of 2005 to have written: "This rebounding-averse and offensively-challenged enigma is going to be the essential ingredient in one of the nation's top five defenses this year. He will lead Iowa to a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament." We shall see what catalytic surprises arise in 2007. ¶ 6:36 AM
The teams that made it to the Final Four last season were Florida, UCLA, LSU, and George Mason. I can't recall that any of the four were the subject of special attention or analysis last November. Not from me, certainly.
Which is merely to state the obvious--but sometimes the obvious needs re-stating. Season previews are notoriously unreliable. Doesn't matter who's writing them: an MSM commentator, a former coach, me, anyone. The preview, by its very nature, can look silly within days. (Blue Ribbon notwithstanding, of course.)
For my part, then, I fret less about how sensible my previews sound and more about how quickly I can flee dumb positions staked out in murky November.
Take last season. A year ago at this time I was telling all who would listen about how Michigan State was going to blaze their way to the Big Ten title. Yep, no question about it. I mean, what's not to love? Izzo, four starters returning from a Final Four team...it's a no-brainer.
Well, it was a no-brainer, but not in the originally intended sense. For it came to pass that actual games started to be played--and I began to fret openly in the blog. MSU lost its first game to Hawaii, 84-62. Wow, total fluke, I said--but let's "stay tuned" on this.
Then the Spartans lost a triple-OT thriller to eighth-ranked Gonzaga in Hawaii. Wow, great game, I said--but this Spartan defense looks worse than I expected. Then MSU beat sixth-ranked Boston College by seven in a slow game at Madison Square Garden. Wow, great win, I said--but this Spartan defense looks worse than I expected.
The fretting culminated in a virtual volte-face on January 3. By that time Michigan State was 12-2 and ranked seventh in the nation. But I was good and spooked:
As Frank McGuire is my witness and barring only a 2004 Red Sox-level miracle, Michigan State won't get to Indianapolis playing the way they've played thus far. If they continue to play at this level they will be merely this year's Wake Forest: superb on offense and blessed with NBA-level talent yet defensively hapless and, in the end, sitting at home watching the Final Four.
This, of course, was but a few dozen days removed from my State's-a-sure-thing talk.
So consider yourself warned: "November insight" is an oxymoron about like "Terrell Owens' quiet dignity."
(Also note that, for all my fretting about the D, it turns out State's offense last year was also significantly worse than in 2005. None of which I or anyone that I know of foresaw in November.)
BONUS preemptive exculpation! There will be at least one catalytic surprise this year in the Big Ten. In 2005 it was Vincent Grier. It would have taken a leap of faith, surely, in November of 2004 to have written: "This who-dat from Dixie State Junior College is going to prove to be a prolific scorer, tireless defender, and effective leader. He will lead Minnesota to the NCAA tournament this year." In 2006 it was Erek Hansen. It would have taken a leap of faith, surely, in November of 2005 to have written: "This rebounding-averse and offensively-challenged enigma is going to be the essential ingredient in one of the nation's top five defenses this year. He will lead Iowa to a 3-seed in the NCAA tournament." We shall see what catalytic surprises arise in 2007. ¶ 6:36 AM
Wednesday, November 01, 2006
Only you can cure DAD (Defensive Attention Deficit)
Preventing your opponent from scoring is half the game. So how come we never talk about defense in basketball?
Last year Notre Dame achieved something truly striking. They combined within one team one of the best offenses in the nation (perhaps only Texas was better) with one of the worst defenses in major-conference basketball (perhaps only Wake Forest and Penn State were worse). Indeed, despite that outstanding offense, the Fighting Irish were unable to even get a bid to the NCAA tournament, much less do any damage there. (The Irish, granted, also had a heaping helping of luck--all bad. See below.) In other words, not even an offense as good as Notre Dame's could overcome a defense as bad as Notre Dame's.
And yet we talk so little about D. In fact, beyond tired bromides about "solid team defense," the attention devoted to defense is woefully out of balance with its actual importance.
Why is that? Three reasons, I think:
1. The game itself. Defense in baseball (for the most part) and in football (utterly and completely) falls within the domain of the specialist--but basketball's the last bastion of the generalist. Baseball gives us celebrated 95 mph pitchers and football gives us celebrated ravenous defensive ends. But basketball gets its D from the same players who contribute the offense--and said players are rarely celebrated for their defense. True, Ben Wallace and his era of Detroit Pistons made defense nominally more hip than it's been in a long while. But Big Ben is actually the exception that proves the rule--celebrated (rightly) as a defensive specialist. College players are for the most part recruited, conversely, for their ability (or potential) to score. Defense, it is thought, can be browbeaten into them once they get on campus.
2. Confusion about the game itself. It's more fun to watch up-tempo games than slow ones. No argument here, surely. The problem is that defense still suffers greatly from a hoary old misconception: that good defense means slow games. This is emphatically and demonstrably untrue, as illustrated beautifully by the 2005 national champion North Carolina Tar Heels. That team played outstanding defense (allowing just 0.90 points per possession in ACC play) and rocketed up and down the court like a track team. They were a pleasure to watch and, believe me, if an Illinois fan can say that, it's true.
(BONUS "contra-positive proves the rule" note! By the same token, slow teams are almost without exception assumed to be good defensive teams. In reality, of course, some are and some aren't. Georgetown, for example, was singled out on the eve of last year's tournament by ESPN.com as a team that "wins its games on the defensive end of the court." Actually, the Hoyas' offense was better than their D--it's just that their games were so wretchedly slow that observers apparently assumed this must be what good defense looks like.)
3. Stats, damned stats. Applying numbers to basketball aids and abets this widespread DAD--and I'm certainly not immune. Look at this blog: I post individual stats for every player in the Big Ten in four different offensive categories. But what about D? While we can record how many blocks and steals an individual records, individual defensive excellence largely eludes our efforts to make sense of it through numbers. The box score doesn't really do justice to defense--you have to see it.
And yet, despite these factors, there are indeed times when we should focus on defense. More specifically, there are teams where defense is where the conversation should start.
Teams of defensive interest
While any team's performance is, of course, the product of equal measures of offense and defense, I think it's fair to say that certain teams invite a defense-first discussion. Most notably, if we try to make sense of your garden-variety "team of defensive interest" without talking about this strange and mysterious thing called defense, we can easily lapse into airy clichés about "winning big games," "playing as a team," etc.
I anticipate that a few Big Ten teams this year will be TDIs. But since I don't want to give away what I'm going to be talking about in the previews over the next couple weeks, let's look instead at some non-Big Ten teams from last year....
The 2006 Fighting Irish....Unbelievably unlucky? Unbelievably bad D? Both!
Last year Notre Dame had perhaps the most agonizing stretch of games that any team has had within recent memory. For those who weren't paying attention in real time, here's how the first 30 days of conference play shook out last year for the Fighting Irish....
Lost in double-OT to Pitt, 100-97
Lost to DePaul, 73-67
Lost to Syracuse, 88-82
Beat Providence, 92-77
Lost to Marquette, 67-65
Lost in double-OT to Georgetown, 85-82
Lost to Villanova, 72-70
Lost to West Virginia, 71-70
Lost in OT to Louisville, 89-86
Over the course of nine games, then, Notre Dame was outscored by a total of just 11 points. And went 1-8. That's not unlucky, that's cursed.
At the same time, this particular cursed team also happens to have been a TDI poster child. Let's look again at those nine games:
Notre Dame defense: opponent points per possession
Pitt (1.13)
DePaul (1.13)
Syracuse (1.23)
Providence (1.20)
Marquette (1.07)
Georgetown (1.19)
Villanova (1.12)
West Virginia (1.14)
Louisville (1.27)
Total for nine games: 1.16
Keep in mind the average defense in the offensively heavy (or defensively light) Big East last year gave up 1.04 points per possession in conference play. So Notre Dame's defense over those nine games was, to be blunt, atrocious. If they had played merely average defense they would have gone 7-2 instead of 1-8. Meaning the Fighting Irish would not only have gone to the NCAA tournament but would have had a sweet seed as well. Defense, specifically the lack of it, spelled the difference between NCAA and NIT for Notre Dame.
The best defense in the country last year
It's a highly subjective honorific, to be sure. But, for what it's worth, looking at the numbers from conference play propels one team to the top of the list--and by a relatively healthy margin....
Best "power"-conference defenses, 2006 (opponent points per possession, conference games only)
1. Kansas (0.88)
2. Texas (0.91)
3. UCLA (0.93)
4. LSU (0.93)
5. Iowa (0.94)
Kansas' interior defense was beyond good--it was sublime. KU was the only major-conference team in the nation last year that didn't allow its conference opponents to make at least 40 percent of their two-point shots. Meanwhile the Jayhawks on the perimeter were busy extracting turnovers from opponents--only Clemson (Clemson?), Arizona, Texas A&M and Iowa State got more TOs from their major-conference foes than did KU.
OK, fine. Kansas had an outstanding defense last year. But when I first looked at these numbers I wondered: how much of this was due to the statistical benefit KU gained from games against the struggling teams at the bottom of the Big XII?
Answer: surprisingly little! On six occasions during the Big XII regular season, KU played what should have been stat-stuffing games against the weak offenses of Baylor, Texas Tech, Missouri, and Nebraska, respectively.
And did the Jayhawks pile up their glittering defensive numbers against these four woeful offenses? Au contraire! Indeed, as KU fans will be quick to remind us guileless Big Ten types, Kansas actually lost one of those six games--and lost it by playing shoddy defense, giving up 1.12 points per possession to Missouri in an 89-86 OT defeat. No, the impressive aspect of the Jayhawk D, the Mizzou loss notwithstanding, is precisely that it was superb against the good teams.
So, yes, Kansas really did have a great defense....But they tanked in the tournament, losing to Bradley in the first round 77-73. How could this have happened? And doesn't it show that defense isn't everything? Let's just say the Jayhawks tanked at the intersection of Justice Street and Fluke Avenue.
The justice: KU's perimeter FG defense all season long was merely mortal--on a team where just about every other aspect of the defense was superhuman. And, lo and behold, the Jayhawks were knocked out of the tournament by an opponent that made 11 of 21 threes.
The fluke: the Kansas game notwithstanding, Bradley rarely shot threes last year--which was a sound strategy because their 3FG pct. was a lowly 33.6. But the stars aligned for the Braves in this game. KU was torched by Marcellus Sommerville in particular, who made 5-of-9 threes against the Jayhawks despite hitting just 36 percent of his threes overall last season.
Lesson: Even one of the best defenses in the country can be struck down in a flash by a precocious run of threes--especially if the perimeter FG defense is nothing special to start with.
Defense won the national championship for Florida
Well, not literally. I just wanted to toss around a pointedly provocative "offense wins championships"-style word-choice for once. (Wow, feels good!) Still, this much is true....
In their six-game run to the national championship, Florida's offense was a little better than it had been during the regular season in the SEC:
Points per possession (PPP)
SEC regular season: 1.10
NCAA Tournament: 1.14
But their defense, somehow, went to a whole new (virtually Kansas-esque) level:
Opponent PPP
SEC regular season: 1.00
NCAA Tournament: 0.89
So Florida had an excellent offense all year long, including and especially in the tournament. Make no mistake, they needed that offense to do what they did. But at the same time it's fair to say that defense transformed the Gators from a very good offensive team into a national champion. (A national champion, I might add, that everyone agreed in retrospect was the best team--but that no one saw coming.)
Lesson: Speaking literally, offense and defense are equivalent factors. A team needs both to go anywhere.
"But, Wonk, what can I do about DAD? I'm just one fan...."
What can you do? Plenty!
1. Act locally. Is your team losing games? Banish meaningless drivel about "toughness" or "discipline" from your sight! Call things by their proper names. Does your team's defense fill you with Edvard Munch-level horror? Then say: "My team's defense fills me with Edvard Munch-level horror." You'll feel better--and your team's coach will compliment you on your hoops savvy!
2. Make a point of publicly mocking commentators who are baffled by the struggles of "athletic" teams. Here's an exhaustively researched and empirically unassailable statement: eleventy-gillion times out of a gazillion, an "athletic" team that's losing games is playing bad D.
3. Help stamp out the mistaken belief that good defense means slow games. Defense doesn't slow games. Certain systems of offense named after certain Ivy League schools do. (OK, with an asterisk: my current thinking is that, with the notable exception of last year's Washington Huskies, being good at defensive rebounding may slow you down a little. The team that fit this profile best last year--good defensive rebounding, slow games--was perhaps St. John's. Aside from the Red Storm, however, the slowest major-conference teams--I'm looking at you, Georgetown, Northwestern, South Florida, and Washington State--were not particularly good defensive rebounding teams.)
And there you have it: a program of action, as it were. I'm looking into ordering "DAD'S ALWAYS WRONG" bumper stickers, oven mitts, commemorative plates, and other collateral materials, but for now....
Astute and dedicated DAD-fighting readers, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Coming soon! The alphabetically-sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each and every Big Ten team begin tomorrow. (Official 11-day motto: "Wildly varying levels of readership since 2005.") So here's a preview of the first preview, written up, naturally, in movie-preview English (MPE)....
In a world without Naismith finalists, where not living up to yesterday means you'll be dead by tomorrow, one man decided to fight back and learned that sometimes to get a call from Ed Hightower you've got to make a call to a higher power. See Bruce Weber in Illinois 2007: To Catch a Chief.
More on the way:
Friday: Indiana
Monday, Nov, 6: Iowa
Tuesday, Nov. 7: Michigan
Wednesday, Nov. 8: Michigan State
Thursday, Nov. 9: Minnesota
Friday, Nov. 10: Northwestern
Monday, Nov. 13: Ohio State
Tuesday, Nov. 14: Penn State
Wednesday, Nov. 15: Purdue
Thursday, November 16: Wisconsin
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:08 AM
Preventing your opponent from scoring is half the game. So how come we never talk about defense in basketball?
Last year Notre Dame achieved something truly striking. They combined within one team one of the best offenses in the nation (perhaps only Texas was better) with one of the worst defenses in major-conference basketball (perhaps only Wake Forest and Penn State were worse). Indeed, despite that outstanding offense, the Fighting Irish were unable to even get a bid to the NCAA tournament, much less do any damage there. (The Irish, granted, also had a heaping helping of luck--all bad. See below.) In other words, not even an offense as good as Notre Dame's could overcome a defense as bad as Notre Dame's.
And yet we talk so little about D. In fact, beyond tired bromides about "solid team defense," the attention devoted to defense is woefully out of balance with its actual importance.
Why is that? Three reasons, I think:
1. The game itself. Defense in baseball (for the most part) and in football (utterly and completely) falls within the domain of the specialist--but basketball's the last bastion of the generalist. Baseball gives us celebrated 95 mph pitchers and football gives us celebrated ravenous defensive ends. But basketball gets its D from the same players who contribute the offense--and said players are rarely celebrated for their defense. True, Ben Wallace and his era of Detroit Pistons made defense nominally more hip than it's been in a long while. But Big Ben is actually the exception that proves the rule--celebrated (rightly) as a defensive specialist. College players are for the most part recruited, conversely, for their ability (or potential) to score. Defense, it is thought, can be browbeaten into them once they get on campus.
2. Confusion about the game itself. It's more fun to watch up-tempo games than slow ones. No argument here, surely. The problem is that defense still suffers greatly from a hoary old misconception: that good defense means slow games. This is emphatically and demonstrably untrue, as illustrated beautifully by the 2005 national champion North Carolina Tar Heels. That team played outstanding defense (allowing just 0.90 points per possession in ACC play) and rocketed up and down the court like a track team. They were a pleasure to watch and, believe me, if an Illinois fan can say that, it's true.
(BONUS "contra-positive proves the rule" note! By the same token, slow teams are almost without exception assumed to be good defensive teams. In reality, of course, some are and some aren't. Georgetown, for example, was singled out on the eve of last year's tournament by ESPN.com as a team that "wins its games on the defensive end of the court." Actually, the Hoyas' offense was better than their D--it's just that their games were so wretchedly slow that observers apparently assumed this must be what good defense looks like.)
3. Stats, damned stats. Applying numbers to basketball aids and abets this widespread DAD--and I'm certainly not immune. Look at this blog: I post individual stats for every player in the Big Ten in four different offensive categories. But what about D? While we can record how many blocks and steals an individual records, individual defensive excellence largely eludes our efforts to make sense of it through numbers. The box score doesn't really do justice to defense--you have to see it.
And yet, despite these factors, there are indeed times when we should focus on defense. More specifically, there are teams where defense is where the conversation should start.
Teams of defensive interest
While any team's performance is, of course, the product of equal measures of offense and defense, I think it's fair to say that certain teams invite a defense-first discussion. Most notably, if we try to make sense of your garden-variety "team of defensive interest" without talking about this strange and mysterious thing called defense, we can easily lapse into airy clichés about "winning big games," "playing as a team," etc.
I anticipate that a few Big Ten teams this year will be TDIs. But since I don't want to give away what I'm going to be talking about in the previews over the next couple weeks, let's look instead at some non-Big Ten teams from last year....
The 2006 Fighting Irish....Unbelievably unlucky? Unbelievably bad D? Both!
Last year Notre Dame had perhaps the most agonizing stretch of games that any team has had within recent memory. For those who weren't paying attention in real time, here's how the first 30 days of conference play shook out last year for the Fighting Irish....
Lost in double-OT to Pitt, 100-97
Lost to DePaul, 73-67
Lost to Syracuse, 88-82
Beat Providence, 92-77
Lost to Marquette, 67-65
Lost in double-OT to Georgetown, 85-82
Lost to Villanova, 72-70
Lost to West Virginia, 71-70
Lost in OT to Louisville, 89-86
Over the course of nine games, then, Notre Dame was outscored by a total of just 11 points. And went 1-8. That's not unlucky, that's cursed.
At the same time, this particular cursed team also happens to have been a TDI poster child. Let's look again at those nine games:
Notre Dame defense: opponent points per possession
Pitt (1.13)
DePaul (1.13)
Syracuse (1.23)
Providence (1.20)
Marquette (1.07)
Georgetown (1.19)
Villanova (1.12)
West Virginia (1.14)
Louisville (1.27)
Total for nine games: 1.16
Keep in mind the average defense in the offensively heavy (or defensively light) Big East last year gave up 1.04 points per possession in conference play. So Notre Dame's defense over those nine games was, to be blunt, atrocious. If they had played merely average defense they would have gone 7-2 instead of 1-8. Meaning the Fighting Irish would not only have gone to the NCAA tournament but would have had a sweet seed as well. Defense, specifically the lack of it, spelled the difference between NCAA and NIT for Notre Dame.
The best defense in the country last year
It's a highly subjective honorific, to be sure. But, for what it's worth, looking at the numbers from conference play propels one team to the top of the list--and by a relatively healthy margin....
Best "power"-conference defenses, 2006 (opponent points per possession, conference games only)
1. Kansas (0.88)
2. Texas (0.91)
3. UCLA (0.93)
4. LSU (0.93)
5. Iowa (0.94)
Kansas' interior defense was beyond good--it was sublime. KU was the only major-conference team in the nation last year that didn't allow its conference opponents to make at least 40 percent of their two-point shots. Meanwhile the Jayhawks on the perimeter were busy extracting turnovers from opponents--only Clemson (Clemson?), Arizona, Texas A&M and Iowa State got more TOs from their major-conference foes than did KU.
OK, fine. Kansas had an outstanding defense last year. But when I first looked at these numbers I wondered: how much of this was due to the statistical benefit KU gained from games against the struggling teams at the bottom of the Big XII?
Answer: surprisingly little! On six occasions during the Big XII regular season, KU played what should have been stat-stuffing games against the weak offenses of Baylor, Texas Tech, Missouri, and Nebraska, respectively.
And did the Jayhawks pile up their glittering defensive numbers against these four woeful offenses? Au contraire! Indeed, as KU fans will be quick to remind us guileless Big Ten types, Kansas actually lost one of those six games--and lost it by playing shoddy defense, giving up 1.12 points per possession to Missouri in an 89-86 OT defeat. No, the impressive aspect of the Jayhawk D, the Mizzou loss notwithstanding, is precisely that it was superb against the good teams.
So, yes, Kansas really did have a great defense....But they tanked in the tournament, losing to Bradley in the first round 77-73. How could this have happened? And doesn't it show that defense isn't everything? Let's just say the Jayhawks tanked at the intersection of Justice Street and Fluke Avenue.
The justice: KU's perimeter FG defense all season long was merely mortal--on a team where just about every other aspect of the defense was superhuman. And, lo and behold, the Jayhawks were knocked out of the tournament by an opponent that made 11 of 21 threes.
The fluke: the Kansas game notwithstanding, Bradley rarely shot threes last year--which was a sound strategy because their 3FG pct. was a lowly 33.6. But the stars aligned for the Braves in this game. KU was torched by Marcellus Sommerville in particular, who made 5-of-9 threes against the Jayhawks despite hitting just 36 percent of his threes overall last season.
Lesson: Even one of the best defenses in the country can be struck down in a flash by a precocious run of threes--especially if the perimeter FG defense is nothing special to start with.
Defense won the national championship for Florida
Well, not literally. I just wanted to toss around a pointedly provocative "offense wins championships"-style word-choice for once. (Wow, feels good!) Still, this much is true....
In their six-game run to the national championship, Florida's offense was a little better than it had been during the regular season in the SEC:
Points per possession (PPP)
SEC regular season: 1.10
NCAA Tournament: 1.14
But their defense, somehow, went to a whole new (virtually Kansas-esque) level:
Opponent PPP
SEC regular season: 1.00
NCAA Tournament: 0.89
So Florida had an excellent offense all year long, including and especially in the tournament. Make no mistake, they needed that offense to do what they did. But at the same time it's fair to say that defense transformed the Gators from a very good offensive team into a national champion. (A national champion, I might add, that everyone agreed in retrospect was the best team--but that no one saw coming.)
Lesson: Speaking literally, offense and defense are equivalent factors. A team needs both to go anywhere.
"But, Wonk, what can I do about DAD? I'm just one fan...."
What can you do? Plenty!
1. Act locally. Is your team losing games? Banish meaningless drivel about "toughness" or "discipline" from your sight! Call things by their proper names. Does your team's defense fill you with Edvard Munch-level horror? Then say: "My team's defense fills me with Edvard Munch-level horror." You'll feel better--and your team's coach will compliment you on your hoops savvy!
2. Make a point of publicly mocking commentators who are baffled by the struggles of "athletic" teams. Here's an exhaustively researched and empirically unassailable statement: eleventy-gillion times out of a gazillion, an "athletic" team that's losing games is playing bad D.
3. Help stamp out the mistaken belief that good defense means slow games. Defense doesn't slow games. Certain systems of offense named after certain Ivy League schools do. (OK, with an asterisk: my current thinking is that, with the notable exception of last year's Washington Huskies, being good at defensive rebounding may slow you down a little. The team that fit this profile best last year--good defensive rebounding, slow games--was perhaps St. John's. Aside from the Red Storm, however, the slowest major-conference teams--I'm looking at you, Georgetown, Northwestern, South Florida, and Washington State--were not particularly good defensive rebounding teams.)
And there you have it: a program of action, as it were. I'm looking into ordering "DAD'S ALWAYS WRONG" bumper stickers, oven mitts, commemorative plates, and other collateral materials, but for now....
Astute and dedicated DAD-fighting readers, Wonk salutes you!
In today's less Wonk-ish venues....
Coming soon! The alphabetically-sensitive preseason walk-arounds of each and every Big Ten team begin tomorrow. (Official 11-day motto: "Wildly varying levels of readership since 2005.") So here's a preview of the first preview, written up, naturally, in movie-preview English (MPE)....
In a world without Naismith finalists, where not living up to yesterday means you'll be dead by tomorrow, one man decided to fight back and learned that sometimes to get a call from Ed Hightower you've got to make a call to a higher power. See Bruce Weber in Illinois 2007: To Catch a Chief.
More on the way:
Friday: Indiana
Monday, Nov, 6: Iowa
Tuesday, Nov. 7: Michigan
Wednesday, Nov. 8: Michigan State
Thursday, Nov. 9: Minnesota
Friday, Nov. 10: Northwestern
Monday, Nov. 13: Ohio State
Tuesday, Nov. 14: Penn State
Wednesday, Nov. 15: Purdue
Thursday, November 16: Wisconsin
Wonk back!
Don't just mutter ineffectually; email me! ¶ 6:08 AM
Best "power"-conference offenses
Points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Notre Dame (1.15)
2. Texas (1.15)
3. Duke (1.12)
4. Tennessee (1.11)
5. Ohio State (1.11)
6. North Carolina (1.11)
7. West Virginia (1.10)
8. NC State (1.10)
9. Washington (1.10)
10. Villanova (1.10)
11. Florida (1.10)
12. Boston College (1.10)
13. Kentucky (1.10)
14. Connecticut (1.10)
¶ 6:05 AM
Points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Notre Dame (1.15)
2. Texas (1.15)
3. Duke (1.12)
4. Tennessee (1.11)
5. Ohio State (1.11)
6. North Carolina (1.11)
7. West Virginia (1.10)
8. NC State (1.10)
9. Washington (1.10)
10. Villanova (1.10)
11. Florida (1.10)
12. Boston College (1.10)
13. Kentucky (1.10)
14. Connecticut (1.10)
¶ 6:05 AM
Best "power"-conference defenses
Opponent points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Kansas (0.88)
2. Texas (0.91)
3. UCLA (0.93)
4. LSU (0.93)
5. Iowa (0.94)
6. Connecticut (0.96)
7. Illinois (0.96)
8. Ohio State (0.97)
9. Texas A&M (0.97)
10. Washington State (0.97)
¶ 6:04 AM
Opponent points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Kansas (0.88)
2. Texas (0.91)
3. UCLA (0.93)
4. LSU (0.93)
5. Iowa (0.94)
6. Connecticut (0.96)
7. Illinois (0.96)
8. Ohio State (0.97)
9. Texas A&M (0.97)
10. Washington State (0.97)
¶ 6:04 AM
Worst "power"-conference offenses
Points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Washington State (0.90)
2. South Florida (0.90)
3. St. John's (0.92)
4. Georgia (0.94)
5. Auburn (0.94)
6. Ole Miss (0.94)
7. Baylor (0.94)
8. Texas Tech (0.95)
9. Purdue (0.95)
10. Missouri (0.95) ¶ 6:03 AM
Points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Washington State (0.90)
2. South Florida (0.90)
3. St. John's (0.92)
4. Georgia (0.94)
5. Auburn (0.94)
6. Ole Miss (0.94)
7. Baylor (0.94)
8. Texas Tech (0.95)
9. Purdue (0.95)
10. Missouri (0.95) ¶ 6:03 AM
Worst "power"-conference defenses
Opponent points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Penn State (1.13)
2. Wake Forest (1.13)
3. Notre Dame (1.12)
Opponent points per possession (2006, conference games only)
1. Penn State (1.13)
2. Wake Forest (1.13)
3. Notre Dame (1.12)